The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

Intro

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. Leading the news today, President Reagan and others remembered the Challenger seven at a Houston memorial service. An earthquake struck the midsection of the United States but caused no major damage or injuries. And there were conflicting reports of a coup in the troubled Caribbean nation of Haiti. We will have the details in our news summary coming up. Robin?

ROBERT MacNEIL: After the news summary, aerospace reporter Jerry Grey with new thoughts on the Challenger explosion; a report on how aerospace business will feel the impact; then analysis of the political turmoil in Haiti; a documentary report backgrounding today's earthquake in the upper Midwest; and we close with an extended coverage of today's memorial service for the astronauts in Houston. News Summary

LEHRER: The seven who died Tuesday aboard space shuttle Challenger were memorialized today in Houston. President Reagan spoke at the outdoor service in the courtyard of the Johnson Space Center. Our report is by Elizabeth Brackett.

ELIZABETH BRACKETT [voice-over]: An almost summerlike breeze and somber music provided a soothing backdrop as the crowd quietly gathered. Friends, astronauts, both present and former, politicians and their families, and thousands of NASA employees gathered for this tribute to the fallen members of the shuttle Challenger mission. The President and Mrs. Reagan met briefly with family members before the service, then led them to their very public seats in the front row. The Reagans were flanked by Commander Scobee's wife, June, on their right, pilot Smith's wife, Jane, on their left. When the President stepped to the podium, he first spoke directly to those in the front row.

Pres. RONALD REAGAN: To those they left behind, the mothers, the fathers, the husbands and wives, brothers and sisters, yes, and especially the children, all of America stands beside you in your time of sorrow.

BRACKETT [voice-over]: And, as expected, he reaffirmed the country's commitment to the exploration of space.

Pres. REAGAN: Man will continue his conquest of space, to reach out for new goals and ever greater achievements. That is the way we shall commemorate our seven Challenger heroes.

BRACKETT [voice-over]: When the words ended, eyes and ears turned to the sky. Jet fighters in a final tribute to the seven -- the missing-man formation. The President reached out to comfort after the service. Some it helped; for others it was harder.

[on camera] For much of the country, even here in Houston, life will now begin to return to normal. But despite the comfort of today's ceremonies, for the families the mourning will continue. In the words of former astronaut Alan Bean, it will be a long time before the families stop waiting for their loved ones to come home.

LEHRER: Meanwhile, in the waters of the Atlantic off the Florida coast, a small submarine attempted to inspect what may be the pressurized cabin of Challenger with the remains of the crew inside. But strong currents prevented the sub from taking photographs. Tom Bearden has a report on the search for wreckage.

TOM BEARDEN [voice-over]: The Navy and the Coast Guard have recovered thousands of pounds of debris from the shattered space shuttle, the largest so far about 25 feet long. The wreckage is being delivered to a secure dock and is temporarily being stored at a hangar at the Cape Canaveral Air Force station. It will eventually be returned to the Kennedy Space Center for the investigation. The material was recovered from an area between 20 and 40 miles off shore from Daytona. A piece of what is believed to be human bone and tissue has also been found, but NASA will make no comment on that today out of respect for the astronauts' families. NASA says a small, unmanned submersible named Sprint was launched today to examine the sea floor. It will be joined by a somewhat larger robot submarine called Scorpio late today. The robot cameras on board are expected to investigate sonar contacts received by Navy ships that indicate objects on the bottom, objects officials caution could be natural rock formations just as easily as pieces of Challenger.

At last report, no divers had yet joined the search. But NASA says several are aboard a recovery ship awaiting the go-ahead from the space agency. Twelve ships and more than a dozen aircraft continue to scour an area of over 6,600 square miles.

MacNEIL: There was a strong earthquake that shook nine states in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region today. Damage was moderate and there were no reports of people hurt, although the quake measured five on the Richter scale. The tremor was centered 30 miles northeast of Cleveland, and was felt in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, New York and Wisconsin, and as far north as Barrie, Ontario. Government buildings in Washington, D.C., shook. Schools and businesses in Lake County, Ohio, were evacuated, and a power generator was knocked out at Eastlake, Ohio.

LEHRER: It's been a day of chaos and change in Haiti and for stories about that chaos and change. Tonight it appears President-for-life Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier is still in charge of his Caribbean nation. He went on the radio late this afternoon to declare a 30-day state of siege. Earlier there were reports of street fighting in Port-au-Prince and other Haitian towns. At least five people are said to have been killed in the capital city. And there was the stunning announcement this morning from White House spokesman Larry Speakes that Duvalier had been overthrown and had fled the country. In Washington, a Haitian embassy official came out to deny that to reporters.

LIONEL DELATOUR, Embassy of Haiti: Contrary to earlier U.S. government and news reports, President Jean-Claude Duvalier continues to carry out his responsibilities as head of state. President and Mrs. Duvalier toured Port-au-Prince this morning and have now returned to the national palace.

LEHRER: A representative of a Duvalier opposition group, the Washington Office on Haiti, also spoke to reporters. He said the U.S. should break diplomatic ties with the Duvalier government.

FRITZ LONGCHAMP, Haiti opposition leader: The Washington Office on Haiti according to demands of the Haitian people call upon the U.S. administration to immediately sever all ties with the Duvalier government and not to interfere with the will of the Haitian people to establish a democratic society by the people and for the people.

LEHRER: Finally, the U.S. government withdrew the extraordinary coup-and-flew announcement from spokesman Speakes and replaced it with this one by State Department spokesman Bernard Kalb.

BERNARD KALB, State Department spokesman: Our information is that there has been no change of government, that martial law has been declared, and all nongovernment rais open. There are reports of sporadic gunfire and looting in the capital city. There is a heavy military presence on the streets. We are recommending that U.S. citizens not visit Haiti until the situation there becomes clearer.

MacNEIL: South African Prime Minister P.W. Botha said today he would consider releasing Nelson Mandela, the leader of the outlawed African National Congress, who's been in jail for 21 years. Addressing the South African parliament, Botha also promised legislation to modify some apartheid laws. He appeared to make Mandela's release contingent on freedom for two Soviet dissidents and a South African commando captured in Angola. Here's a report on the balance of the speech by Michael Buerk of the BBC.

MICHAEL BUERK, BBC [voice-over]: The pressures on Mr. Botha today as his motorcade took him to open parliament were intense. Since this ceremony last year, 1,028 people have died in violence. A state of emergency exists in much of the country. The economy is faltering and the currency has collapsed. Today, his critics said, was his last chance to show the world South Africa's really changing. He needed to say something that would make an impact. With the rest of the world and its backers in mind, Mr. Botha's approach was notably more conciliatory, his statements less qualified.

P.W. BOTHA, South African President: We have outgrown the outdated colonial system of paternalism as well as the outdated concept of apartheid.

BUERK [voice-over]: Much of the speech dealt with reforms already announced or recommended. Pass laws will go, but passes replaced by a common identity document, and blacks would still be subject to a policy of "orderly urbanization." No details of that, no indication of how the new scheme will differ from the old. One genuinely new proposal: a national council where black leaders and white ministers could discuss the country's political future, as likely, though, to be boycotted by radical black spokesmen as its predecessors.

MacNEIL: In Washington, the State Department said there were some indications of positive changes in the speech and it welcomed the suggestion that Botha might release Mandela.

LEHRER: Angola rebel leader Jonas Savimbi served notice on the Chevron Gulf Oil Company today, saying close down oil operations in Angola or be closed down by force. He told a Washington news conference the Gulf facilities were a target for sabotage by his guerrillas, because they helped keep in power the Marxist government of Angoala.

MacNEIL: In Chicago, G.D. Searle & Company announced it will withdraw its two intrauterine birth control devices from the market in the United States. The company said the reason is the cost of defending itself from lawsuits over the two products, and the company's inability to obtain adequate insurance. The two devices are sold under the trade names CU-7, which is the IUD most frequently prescribed in the United States, and Tatum-T.

That concludes our summary of the news. Coming up, new thoughts on the possible causes of the shuttle disaster, a report on how it will affect aerospace business; we analyze the crisis in Haiti, and report on earthquake potential in the Mississippi Valley. We conclude with extended coverage of the memorial service for the astronauts in Houston. Sifting for Clues

MacNEIL: As NASA continued to recover debris from the shattered space shuttle, rumors are circulating about just what might have caused Tuesday's accident. One story today was that a leak in one of the solid rocket boosters might have touched off the explosion. Officially, though, NASA refused to speculate on the cause. For an expert assessment of what we know and what we hope to find out, we have Jerry Grey, publisher of Aerospace America and president of the International Astronautical Federation.

Mr. Grey, from your sources, has NASA got any closer to figuring out what happened?

JERRY GREY: I have not heard anything that indicates that they are any closer than they were yesterday or the day before. They are, of course, looking at all possible trails that might lead to some analysis.

MacNEIL: What about this report, which got a lot of prominence, that a leak from a seam on one of the solid booster rockets on the side here caused a kind of blowtorch affect? They were talking about 6,000 degrees temperature, which might have set off the blaze. What do you think of that?

Mr. GREY: It is a conceivable possibility, but in my view the evidence does not point to that. I think the reason that people have cited that is that they saw on the side of the big tank here a glow which indicated a high temperature area, which could have been caused by a leak, obviously, in one of these segments. But the photographs after the explosion showed those solid propellant rockets going off in what I would almost call a perfect combustion performance. That is, if a seam had blown at that point, on this type of engine, this torches a large hole. It's like an acetylene torch: it would get bigger and bigger. You would not only have seen that jet on the side of the solid propellant rockets when it went off afterward, but it would cause them to move in very, very erratic form, and they didn't. They drifted, but they were almost perfectly aligned.

MacNEIL: We can look at this, and the flames that you referred to the other night here, in between the spacecraft and the booster rocket, seem to be right at the rear there, don't they?

Mr. GREY: That's right. See, now, that's the spot that they were referring to. But I believe that that spot that showed up was really the hydrogen flame moving forward. Now, after the explosion we saw those solid propellant rockets going off and they were flying --

MacNEIL: They were flying perfectly.

Mr. GREY: They were flying perfectly. There was no indication of any malfunction.

MacNEIL: Do these seams blow?

Mr. GREY: No. And the other thing is, within -- inside that sow the entire propellant cake would have had to really --

MacNEIL: It burns from the inside.

Mr. GREY: It burns from the inside out.

MacNEIL: Like a big firecracker.

Mr. GREY: They are in segments, however, and they are sealed, so it's conceivable that the seal might have been penetrated and the flame came out the side. But if that had happened it would have enlarged very, very quickly, and I don't believe that happened. There's no indication that it did. It is a possibility, but I would call it a fairly slim possibility based on my experience.

MacNEIL: Now to the search off the Florida coast. There is speculation that a big object on the sea bottom that's been located by sonar might be the shuttle cockpit or the crew module, and they're sending down a robot submarine to have a look at that. Is it conceivable that the crew module could have survived intact? Was it built to withstand this kind of stress?

Mr. GREY: No. It is built as a unit. That is, it's a structural unit, and it certainly could maintain its shape. In terms of being able to survive and maintain pressure and everything else --

MacNEIL: No, I meant just maintain itself as a unit.

Mr. GREY: It's possible that it could have done so. It would have been damaged very badly, I suspect, but it could conceivably still be that unit. Of course, there's another very large object that might also retain its shape, and that was the tracking and data relay satellite, the payload in the shuttle, which was also a massive --

MacNEIL: As large as the crew module from up in here?

Mr. GREY: Oh, yes. It was actually somewhat larger in total size. It could also be that.

MacNEIL: If the crew module remained intact, logic would argue that they would find the crew in it. I mean, if its integrity wasn't breached, the crew would be in it, because --

Mr. GREY: That is possible.

MacNEIL: -- for the launch they would all be in there.

Mr. GREY: That is possible. However, the basic material out of which the module is made is aluminum, and aluminum would conceivably burn in a high temperature hydrogen-oxygen flame of that type that was near it. So it would certainly be badly damaged, badly burned, and whether it retained its shell intact would be, I think, subject to question, even though the basic structure might still be there.

MacNEIL: How much do you think they're going to learn from this painstaking assembly or recovery and assembly of all the fragments they're getting from the ocean?

Mr. GREY: It's hard to tell. I think it's absolutely essential that they look at everything, every bit of evidence, because this accident I think was too serious not to follow every possible course. I would suspect they probably won't find too much useful in the fragments themselves. I think the best hope is still in the reams and reams of telemeter data that were sent back by the thousands of sensors everywhere in the spacecraft.

MacNEIL: What I don't understand about -- why is the search through the telemetry data so laborious? If the computers in the spacecraft could sense the minutest fault, why can't they just ask their computers on the ground, which are just as sophisticated, to go back and look at the stuff and pinpoint the fault? Why do they have to go through it the way they are?

Mr. GREY: Well, it's a different mechanism. The computers in the spacecraft and on the ground are keyed only to certain critical elements, things that might cause -- that are known in advance that might cause trouble, and therefore can be corrected during an abort. There are thousands and thousands of other sensors that monitor many, many things. These are not going through the computers; they are simply being recorded on magnetic tape, and therefore the only way to find if there's any anomaly is for someone who knows or can recognize an anomaly, to look at those traces one by one. Hundreds of people are now examining those pieces of paper.

MacNEIL: Pieces of paper.

Mr. GREY: Pieces of paper or outputs from magnetic tape on the oscilloscope screens.

MacNEIL: Jerry Grey, thank you very much. Jim? Challenger: Impact on Industry

LEHRER: Then there's the business of space. What happens now to the companies whose minds and livelihoods depend on space exploration? We have an answer from Jeffrey Kaye of public station KCET-Los Angeles.

JEFFREY KAYE, KCET [voice-over]: The multibillion-dollar shuttle program has been a source of lucrative contracts for hundreds of aerospace companies across the country. Following the catastrophe on Tuesday, NASA put a hold on its launch schedule. The delay is certain to have an impact on shuttle-related businesses, but most analysts agree that in the long run these aerospace firms will emerge unscathed. Richard Kaplan, chairman of the aerospace engineering department at the University of Southern California, says the military-industrial complex is insulated from severe financial harm.

RICHARD KAPLAN, aerospace professor: Because there's no one else to find out what went wrong, and when the companies or the scientists and engineers discover what's wrong, those companies will be the ones that have to build the new craft, the follow on, the safer shuttle that comes, will come from the same companies.

KAYE [voice-over]: Much of the shuttle-related work is performed by southern California-based companies. Rockwell Corporation is prime contractor. It built five shuttles and prepares the crafts between flights. Burbank-based Lockheed Corporation also services the shuttle. McDonnell-Douglas built rocket boosters. Hughes Aircraft Company and TRW make the satellites that the shuttles launch. After the explosion, all of these companies refused to comment on their shuttle business. But indications are members of the financial community, including those here at the Pacific Stock Exchange, consider the aerospace industry to be as healthy as ever.

[on camera] If investors are nervous about the financial health of shuttle-related companies, it hasn't been reflected in the stock market. There have been some fluctuations in the share prices of contractors, but for the most part trading has been unaffected by the shuttle explosion.

JOHN SIMON, securities analyst: The first day the stocks of the companies that were associated with the program were weak. I mean, they went down. But by the second day after the event, they were about even, so I suspect that one could safely say the first day all the people who were looking for a reason to sell the stocks sold them, and that was about it.

KAYE [voice-over]: Aerospace analyst John Simon, vice president of Seidler Amdez Securities, expects the aerospace industry to weather the shuttle explosion, just as it does crashes of new aircraft.

Mr. SIMON: This is the first major problem we've had with the shuttle system since it's begun. And usually with airplanes, if we can call this a space plane, you lose many of them at the beginning, before you find out some of the intricacies that exist.

KAYE [voice-over]: Twelve shuttle launches were scheduled for the remainder of this year. Those feeling the immediate impact of changes in the shuttle timetable, apart from shuttle ground personnel who are actually employed by Rockwell and Lockheed, will be the Martin Marietta Corporation, which supplies the nonreusable fuel tanks, and Morton Thiokol, Incorporated, which prepares the external boosters. But the impact falls hardest on an auxiliary industry, satellite manufacturers such as Hughes Aircraft and TRW. They sell satellites to private companies and foreign governments, which in turn pay NASA to launch them from the shuttles. While the satellite owners may wish to look for alternatives to the U.S. shuttle, analysts believe that satellite users will not be able to desert the American program. NASA's rivals, space programs in Europe and Asia, are either booked up or underdeveloped.

[interviewing] Are you saying the U.S. program won't lose customers to foreigners?

Prof. KAPLAN: We can probably respond as quickly as the foreigners can, say. It's clear the Americans are going to be working and it'll probably end up not being a crash program, but a high priority program to get reliable unmanned boost vehicles.

KAYE [voice-over]: Unmanned boost vehicles were the way satellites were launched before the shuttle. Now many believe there will be a renewed emphasis on unmanned spacecraft. Some of the same companies involved in the shuttle program could now receive extra business building unmanned rockets.

Mr. SIMON: We were talking how Martin Marietta on the one hand made the big tank that was on the shuttle. On the other hand, they also make a unmanned launch vehicle, which could now get significantly more orders. Of course, then there's also the probability or at least the possibility that they'll build another shuttle. And Rockwell is the assembler, as it was the designer, of the shuttle, and that would be the company who obviously would get the contract to do that.

KAYE [voice-over]: Despite the criticism of the shuttle program, it still has friends in high places. In particular, the U.S. military is likely to press for a continuation of the manned shuttle because of its usefulness to the so-called Star Wars program. Representatives of the hundreds of subcontractors involved in shuttle work told us they are optimistic that the manned space program will continue, whatever the interruptions. Air Research, a division of the Garrett Corporation, manufactures electronic sensing devices used on the shuttle. Company vice president Karl Jackson views the shuttle explosion from the perspective of the two decades he has spent in the space business.

KARL JACKSON, aerospace executive: Your immediate thoughts are back to what happened after the Apollo fire, you know, 19 years ago, and I think we transcended that and I'm pretty sure that the space program, the manned space program will transcend it again.

KAYE [voice-over]: The aerospace business has survived disasters before. But all agree it is now facing one obstacle much bigger than any other setback, one that came about not by accident but by design. The spending reduction law known as Gramm-Rudman could lead to major cutbacks in the space program, cutbacks that could be even more costly to the aerospace business than the consequences of Tuesday's disaster.

MacNEIL: Pictures have supplied one dimension this week, but the shuttle tragedy has left us all with a hunger for eloquent words, and for them we turn to the country's editorial writers. Here at week's end is a sample of the thoughts of some newspaper editorials from around the United States.

TOM DEARMORE, San Francisco Examiner: A smoky signature of death written on the morning sky. We saw it with a feeling of numbness as the best-laid plans and the quintessential inventions of American technology went wrong, and seven of our finest achievers died in that sudden blossoming of fire and debris.

KENDRA McCONNELL, Detroit Free Press: Did we rush to embrace the circus and forget the substance of the space program? Are such accidents an inevitable risk of any attempts at technological breakthrough, to be simply understood and accepted as a part of life? The truth is, of course, that none of us really knows the answer to such questions.

TOM TEEPEN, The Atlanta Constitution: Christa McAuliffe has taught her last lesson. It was one none of us would have wished to learn, least of all from this keen, agreeable teacher, the first private citizen, if you will, into space. It is a lesson in fate, damned fate. We mourn, we assess, but we will resume, we will return. Class dismissed, Mrs. McAuliffe? No, it is just coming to order.

B.H. ACKELMIER, The Indianapolis Star: The grief enveloping the country must not dissuade or deter Americans from their destiny or their role as earth's pioneer. People who reach for the stars do not shy from challenge. Sharon Christa McAuliffe didn't. To become prisoners of fear and timidity would only compound the tragedy.

TONY SNOW, The Detroit News: The soul-numbing tragedy undoubtedly will tempt some people to argue that Congress should shut down the space program because it's too risky. More than likely, some liability lawyers booked flights and packed their suitcases, hoping to tie up the courts and the space program in protracted litigation. But it would be premature, dangerous, foolish and unfair to traduce the memory of the seven men and women who died by eliminating the program for which they labored so hard and for which they died.

JIM HAMPTON, The Miami Herald: The Challenger's unutterably sad fate brought forcibly to a jaded nation's attention the perils of exploration. Christa McAuliffe and her six compatriots knew well those perils, accepted them, braved them. They did not have to go. Like all true explorers, they simply could not think of not going.

@qu77RACHELLE COHEN, The Boston Herald: We had all become so blase about this space flight business. The few diehard office fans who turned on the TV to watch the liftoff found instead the usual array of game shows and soaps. We had taken this most dangerous of missions for granted -- until now.

MacNEIL: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, the turmoil in Haiti, earthquake potential in the Mississippi Valley, and an extended look at the memorial service in Houston for the lost astronauts. Haiti: Dynasty in Danger

LEHRER: The Haiti story. First there was the report of fighting and rebellion on city streets in Haiti. Then came the White House announcement that the government had toppled, that Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier, Haiti's president for life, had been deposed and had fled the country. Not so, then said Haitian government officials, and eventually Baby Doc himself. And finally the State Department said there had been a mistake earlier. And so on the confusion has gone today.

Haiti is a Caribbean nation 600 miles south of Florida. It has some six million people, most of them poor, many of them angry about that poverty and the iron-hand rule of Duvalier they blame for it. Anti-government demonstrations began a month ago and have steadily spread and grown more violent since. Ernest Preeg is here to help us better understand what is happening and why in Haiti. He is a retired Foreign Service officer who was the U.S. ambassador to Haiti from 1981 through 1983.

First, Mr. Ambassador, how in the world could this White House announcement snafu happen today? The official presidential spokesman says Duvalier is gone, he is gone from power, he is gone from the country, and then it turns out that not to be the case. You spent some time over at the State Department today; what happened?

Amb. ERNEST PREEG: I'm not sure I can add too much on this. The explanation was that there were conflicting reports and rumors early on that led to the erroneous statement that he had left and then the correction updating it midday. I guess those things happen, but I really don't have --

LEHRER: The opposition, the Duvalier opposition here in Washington, put out the word late this afternoon that what happened -- what they understood happened was that the U.S. government actually had a deal with Duvalier, that he was going to leave the country this morning, and then at the last minute he changed his mind. Did you hear that?

Amb. PREEG: No, I haven't heard anything along those lines.

LEHRER: Well, what is your understanding of what the situation is now? I mean, he still is running the government and there is -- as Bernard Kalb said in our tape, there is fighting and there is military presence. Anything you can add to that?

Amb. PREEG: No, it's a tense situation, and it's quite uncertain now. The declaration of martial law, the presence of the security forces in the street bring it to a new stage, and what we'll have to see over the next days is whether this will cause the demonstrations to back off and slow down, or whether momentum will proceed in the other direction. So at this stage it's not clear where it's going.

LEHRER: The opposition also said today that we should expect, and the United States government in particular should expect, that the army under Duvalier will be particularly brutal in the next few days in trying to put down this rebellion. Is that a correct expectation from your point of view?

Amb. PREEG: I would doubt very much that this kind of violent repression would come forward based on what's happened up until now, but we can't tell at this stage. There have been some killings; there've been some arrests and some beatings over the last couple of months. As many as eight people have been killed by security forces. But from what I've heard today in Port-au-Prince, the armed forces have been restrained in terms of shooting on the people. But again I have to emphasize it's very uncertain what's going to happen in the coming days.

LEHRER: Sure, yeah. This rebellion has both political and economic underpinnings, does it not?

Amb. PREEG: Yes, and the two are related in Haiti. The massive poverty, particularly in the countryside, is at the root of the problem in Haiti. But also there's been a regime now in power for 30 years. It's been an authoritarian regime and there's been pressure to liberalize it and to broaden the participation in the political process. And this is also part of the problem.

LEHRER: Opponents blame the United States and its policy toward Haiti for a lot of this, saying that we have encouraged the Duvalier government, not only of Baby Doc but of Papa Doc, his father before that, and that we are as much to blame as Duvalier. How do you respond to that?

Amb. PREEG: Well, particularly for the last four or five years the approach of the U.S. government, and it's the executive branch as well as the Congress, in terms of the stipulations in our aid legislation, were along the lines that we would try to work with the Duvalier government and we would be supporting the government with aid, in fact, an increase in aid, which has happened over the last several years. But it would be explicitly conditioned on certain actions on the part of the Duvalier government, in three areas. First, the full cooperation of the government -- Haitian government, in stopping illegal migration to the United States, particularly the boat people phenomenon of several years ago. Second, that the extent we give economic aid has to be done efficiently and produce results in a cooperative way. And here too, overall there has been progress. There was a GAO report last year that confirmed that this was basically moving in a satisfactory direction, although our aid in itself certainly is not going to solve the massive problems of poverty. The most difficult area and the most uncertain one has been political reform, the elimination of human rights abuses, and the gradual opening up, the democratization of the political system.

LEHRER: And just in the last few days the State Department had said that progress was not good enough, and in fact had put a mark on Haitian aid, had it not?

Amb. PREEG: Well, the way this is in the legislation, in order for the new funds to be committed this year, FY'86, in various programs, the President, and by designation the secretary of state, has to certify that there has been progress in the direction of democratization and human rights, respect for human rights. Up until now, particularly in the last couple of months, the secretary has not been in a position to make such a certification. So in certain areas, it's about half of our aid program, we are not able to commit new monies or not willing to in this fiscal year. And so the certification process is still hanging and it certainly has not been -- there's been no certification made.

LEHRER: Mr. Ambassador, if Duvalier should eventually leave, tonight, tomorrow, a week from tomorrow, a year from tomorrow, who would take over?

Amb. PREEG: Well, that again is very uncertain. There is not a clear and dominant opposition or leadership that is opposing him. Within Haiti itself there is a power structure that's been in being for a long time. The security forces, of course, are a major part of that. And there are some oppositionists within the country. There are a lot of people outside of the country who are also in opposition. But it's not a cohesive and single group, so I would have to say there's a good deal of uncertainty as to what would happen.

LEHRER: I see. Well, Mr. Ambassador, thank you very much.

Amb. PREEG: Thank you. Quake -- Disaster Zone?

MacNEIL: As we reported, there was a strong earthquake today in the Ohio Valley, which shook buildings in nine states but caused little damage. That is somewhat to the north and the east of where seismologists have been expecting an earthquake, in the lower Mississippi Valley. Correspondent Tom Bearden reports on the earthquake potential there.

TOM BEARDEN [voice-over]: Memphis, Tennessee, a pleasant southern city of more than a million people on the banks of the Mississippi River. A city with the greatest earthquake risk of any metropolitan area east of the Rockies. When most Americans think of earthquakes in the United States, they think of the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906. The San Andreas fault is a household word. The inevitability of major earthquakes in California is well known. But there is another fault in this country, a fault that spawned some of the greatest earthquakes in the history of the world: the New Madrid fault. It's located on a generally northeast-soutwest line near the town of New Madrid, Missouri. Memphis is just 35 miles away. In the winter of 1811-1812, three enormous earthquakes occurred in the region. They measured 8.6, 8.4 and 8.7 on the Richter scale. Huge sections of land were uplifted. Folklore has it the Mississippi River ran backwards for two days, filling in the newly formed depressions. Scientists know the uplift created two waterfalls along the course of the great river. Vast tracts of timber were destroyed. The shock waves cracked sidewalks in Washington, D.C., and rang church bells in Boston. The quakes are not well known because the region was only sparsely settled. Scientists now believe such earthquakes can and will happen again.

Sen. ALBERT GORE, Jr., (D) Tennessee: It has been estimated that there is a 40 to 60 percent chance that a quake measuring at least six on the Richter scale will strike the area before the year 2000. The odds of such a quake occurring before the year 2035 increase to 86 to 97 percent.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: A Senate subcommittee called this hearing in the wake of the tragic earthquakes in Mexico City to examine this country's ability to deal with a similar catastrophe. Several government agencies have been preparing contingency plans to deal with a major earthquake. They have produced a disturbing document.

[on camera] This report prepared for the Federal Emergency Management Agency evaluates the earthquake risk in the area surrounding the New Madrid fault. It examines the potential effects of two different-size earthquakes occurring at different times of the day. It projects a staggering loss of life and property, up to 5,000 people dead and $51 billion in damage. Such an earthquake would affect the entire central United States.

[voice-over] This map indicates the extent of damage that would be inflicted on the nation's heartland by a magnitude of 7.6 earthquake. In the outer boundary, poorly built or badly designed structures would be damaged, some severely. In the center, in Memphis, a catastrophe unparalleled in American history. The report indicates up to 2,500 people could be killed in Memphis alone, three times that many injured.

Dr. ARCH JOHNSTON, seismologist: It's beem estimated, actually by Dr. Nuttley at St. Louis, that enough strain has accumulated since the great 1811-1812 earthquakes, has accumulated in the New Madrid zone, if it were all released now to generate a 7.6 earthquake.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Dr. Arch Johnston is the director of the Tennessee Earthquake Information Center at Memphis State University. Johnston says the strain could continue to build for centuries without the occurrence of an earthquake. But he admits no one really knows.

[interviewing] So the New Madrid could be quiet for another 500 years, or it could kill 2,500 people in the next five minutes?

Dr. JOHNSTON: Yes. We couldn't exclude either possibility with any certainty.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: In the magnitude 7.6 earthquake scenario, which is five times smaller than the Mexico City tremor, Memphis would be virtually cut off from the rest of the world. At least one and possibly both of the highway bridges across the Mississippi would be destroyed. Most of the hospital beds in the area would be unavailable to treat thousands of injured people. The water system would fail, making it difficult if not impossible to fight the fires that would be started by ruptured natural gas mains. The gas pipelines that supply the northeastern United States would be severed.

[interviewing] Is the city of Memphis doing everything it should to protect its citizens?

Dr. JOHNSTON: No. I'd have to say no. Now, we have started some initiatives here, recent initiatives, that I think are a big step forward. But certainly if you look at Memphis right now, it's a city badly unprepared for a major earthquake.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Johnston says the fundamental danger is that hundreds of buildings in Memphis would not survive an earthquake. There are no provisions in the city's building code requiring earthquake-resistive design.

Dr. JOHNSTON: We're not going to control earthquakes, so the best thing we can do is control the factors in an earthquake that put people mostly at risk. Well, that's buildings -- that's very obvious from the Mexico City tragedy, that buildings kill people in earthquakes.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Mexico City is built on an ancient lakebed, loose, sandy soil that actually amplified the shock wave. The vibrations literally shook many buildings apart. In some places the soil liquefied and lost its ability to support a foundation. The buildings simply fell over. The same thing would happen in Memphis.

MIKE BANKER, engineer: The soil conditions in the Mexico City area are analogous to those we face here. The fact that damage to structures so far away from the epicenter of an earthquake took place, I'm sure is getting the attention of a seismologist in our area.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Mexico City is 200 miles from the fault. The ground motion was slow, and affected taller buildings more than small ones. Memphis is only 35 miles from the fault. Johnston says that means there will be a more rapid vibration, which will damage a greater percentage of buildings.

Dr. JOHNSTON: It would also get a lot of high-frequency motion, which is more dangerous to small structures. So I would think that the range of buildings damaged would be greater in Memphis than was true in Mexico City.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Residential structures in Memphis are significantly safer than those in Mexico City. Most of them are frame constructions, which offers considerable resistance to earthquake motion. If the projected quake occurred at night, the estimated fatality rate declines by almost 75%. It is in the workplace that people are most vulnerable. On the surface it would appear to be a fairly simple matter to protect against building collapse by establishing requirements for earthquake-resistive design. That's under study. But in Memphis it is a delicate political and economic issue. The city's economic base has been declining for many years, and local government has been trying very hard to attract new industry. Seismic design considerations add from five to 10 percent to the cost of a new building. Leaders are very concerned about those costs driving away new investors. Warner Howe is the chairman of the Memphis Building Code Advisory Committee.

WARNER HOWE, civil engineer: There's no developer that's looking for additional cost in his development, and I think we're in an area where increased cost is of serious concern to the developer. The average development here is a borderline economic situation, and to be viable it can't stand too many additional requirements.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Yet even without code requirements, some seismic provisions are being designed into several buildings under construction, including additions to two local hospitals. But there was a much thornier issue only now being tentatively addressed: what to do about existing buildings that are dangerously vulnerable. Many unreinforced masonry buildings in Mexico City proved to be incapable of withstanding lateral movement. There are thousands of similar structures in Memphis. Many of them are school buildings. The federal study predicts that if an earthquake strikes during the day, up to a third of the projected casualties would be children. It is technically possible to retrofit the schools to make them safer, but it would be enormously expensive. City officials say Memphis simply can't afford it. Shelby County Mayor William Morris says the whole nation should share that financial burden.

WILLIAM MORRIS, Mayor, Shelby County: The money required to save those buildings, to retrofit those buildings, would become and should become part of the burden of people all over the country. You know, it has to be borne because it's just too massive for one constituency, one small constituency, that constituency that's involved, to afford.

MacNEIL: A Tennessee seismologist told us today's earthquake, centered near Lake Erie, did not diminish the pressure on the New Madrid fault line.

LEHRER: And the Lurie cartoon of this Friday.

[Ranon Lurie cartoon -- salute to the Challenger seven, who became a new constellation in the heavens]

LEHRER: Again, the major stories of today. President and Mrs. Reagan were among those who memorialized the Challenger seven at a service in Houston. A small submarine is investigating anobject on the Atlantic Ocean floor which may be the pressurized cabin of Challenger with the remains of the crew inside. A major earthquake shook the upper Midwest but caused no major damage or injuries. And a state of siege was declared in Haiti following incorrect reports its government had been overthrown.

Robin? Memorial

MacNEIL: Finally tonight, the memorial service in Houston at which President Reagan led the nation in saying farewell to the seven crew members of the shuttle Challenger. For those who may have missed the service broadcast this morning, we end tonight by showing the conclusion of that moving ceremony in full.

Pres. RONALD REAGAN: We come together today to mourn the loss of seven brave Americans, to share the grief that we all feel, and perhaps in that sharing to find the strength to bear our sorrow and the courage to look for the seeds of hope. Our nation's loss is first a profound personal loss to the family and the friends and the loved ones of our shuttle astronauts. To those they left behind, the mothers, the fathers, the husbands and wives, brothers and sisters, yes, and especially the children, all of America stands beside you in your time of sorrow.

What we say today is only an inadequate expression of what we carry in our hearts. Words pale in the shadow of grief. They seem insufficient even to measure the brave sacrifice of those you loved and we so admired. Their truest testimony will not be in the words we speak, but in the way they led their lives and in the way they lost their lives, with dedication, honor, and an unquenchable desire to explore this mysterious and beautiful universe. The best we can do is remember our seven astronauts, our Challenger seven, remember them as they lived, bringing life and love and joy to those who knew them and pride to a nation.

They came from all parts of this great country, from South Carolina to Washington state, Ohio to Mohawk, New York, Hawaii to North Carolina, to Concord, New Hampshire. They were so different, yet in their mission, their quest, they held so much in common.

We remember Dick Scobee, the commander who spoke the last words we heard from the space shuttle Challenger. He served as a fighter pilot in Vietnam, earning many medals for bravery, and later as a test pilot of advanced aircraft before joining the space program. Danger was a familiar companion to Commander Scobee.

We remember Michael Smith, who earned enough medals as a combat pilot to cover his chest, including the Navy Distinguished Flying Cross, three air medals and the Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry with Silver Star, in gratitude from a nation he fought to keep free.

We remember Judith Resnik, known as J.R. to her friends, always smiling, always eager to make a contribution, finding beauty in the music she played on her piano in her off hours.

We remember Ellison Onizuka, who was a child running barefoot through the coffee fields and macadamia groves of Hawaii, dreamed of someday traveling to the moon. Being an Eagle Scout, he said, had helped him soar to the impressive achievements of his career.

We remember Ronald McNair, who said that he learned perseverance in the cotton fields of South Carolina. His dream was to live aboard the space station, performing experiments and playing his saxophone in the weightlessness of space. Well, Ron, we will miss your saxophone, and we will build your space station.

We remember Gregory Jarvis. On that ill-fated flight he was carrying with him a flag of his university in Buffalo, New York, a small token, he said, to the people who unlocked his future.

We remember Christa McAuliffe, who captured the imagination of the entire nation, inspiring us with her pluck, her restless spirit of discovery; a teacher not just to her students but to an entire people, instilling us all with the excitement of this journey we ride into the future.

We will always remember them, these skilled professionals, scientists and adventurers, these artists and teachers and family men and women, and we will cherish each of their stories, stories of triumph and bravery, stories of true American heroes.

On the day of the disaster, our nation held a vigil by our television sets. In one cruel moment, our exhilaration turned to horror. We waited and watched and tried to make sense of what we had seen. That night I listened to a call-in program on the radio. People of every age spoke of their sadness and the pride they felt in our astronauts. Across America, we are reaching out, holding hands and finding comfort in one another. The sacrifice of your loved ones has stirred the soul of our nation.

And through the pain, our hearts have been opened to a profound truth: the future is not free. The story of all human progress is one of a struggle against all odds. We learned again that this America, which Abraham Lincoln called the last best hope of man on earth, was built on heroism and noble sacrifice. It was built by men and women like our seven star voyagers, who answered a call beyond duty, who gave more than was expected or required, and who gave it little thought of worldly reward.

We think back to the pioneers of an earlier century, the sturdy souls who took their families and their belongings and who set out into the frontier of the American West. Often they met with terrible hardship. Along the Oregon Trail you could still see the grave markers of those who fell on the way. But grief only steeled them to the journey ahead.

Today the frontier is space and the boundaries of human knowledge. Sometimes when we reach for the stars we fall short, but we must pick ourselves up again and press on despite the pain. Our nation is indeed fortunate that we can still draw on immense reservoirs of courage, character and fortitude. That we're still blessed with heroes like those of the space shuttle Challenger. Dick Scobee knew that every launching of a space shuttle is a technological miracle, and he said "if something ever does go wrong, I hope that doesn't mean the end to the space shuttle program." Every family member I talked to asked specifically that we continue the program, that that is what their departed loved one would want above all else.

We will not disappoint them. Today we promise Dick Scobee and his crew that their dream lives on, that the future they worked so hard to build will become reality.

The dedicated men and women of NASA have lost seven members of their family. Still, they too must forge ahead with a space program that is effective, safe and efficient, but bold and committed. Man will continue his conquest of space, to reach out for new goals and ever greater achievements. That is the way we shall commemorate our seven Challenger heroes.

Dick, Mike, Judy, El, Ron, Greg and Christa, your families and your country mourn your passing. We bid you goodbye; we will never forget you. For those who knew you well and loved you, the pain will be deep and enduring. A nation too will long feel the loss of her seven sons and daughters, her seven good friends. We can find consolation only in faith, for we know in our hearts that you who flew so high and so proud now make your home beyond the stars, safe in God's promise of eternal life. May God bless you all and give you comfort in this difficult time.

MacNEIL: Good night, Jim.

LEHRER: Good night, Robin. Have a nice weekend. We'll see you on Monday night. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.