The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. Leading the news this Thursday, tens of thousands of Soviet citizens defied Mikhail Gorbachev and held an anti-government rally. Iraqi troops launched a major counter attack against Kurdish rebels. Former Pres. Reagan said he supports a seven day waiting period to purchase a handgun. We'll have details in our News Summary in a moment. Judy Woodruff's in Washington tonight. Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: On the NewsHour tonight we turn first to the situation in Moscow and two updates from journalists on the scene. Then three analysts consider what all the unrest is leading to. Next, a Jeffrey Kaye update on the Los Angeles police beating story and finally what former Pres. Reagan had to say today about buying handguns.NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: In Moscow today, tens of thousands of demonstrators defied Mikhail Gorbachev and held a massive pro reform demonstration. The crowd shouted "Communists go home!" and carried signs that read "No to the Gorbachev Threat". Others chanted the name of Mr. Gorbachev's political rival, Boris Yeltsin. The demonstration was peaceful, but thousands of troops armed with riot gear and water cannon kept the crowd away from Red Square and the Kremlin. Earlier in what was seen as a victory for Mr. Yeltsin the Russian parliament voted to annul Pres. Gorbachev's three week ban on demonstrations. Gorbachev rejected that vote. The parliament took no action on a planned "no confidence" vote in Yeltsin called for by Russian hardliners. The State Department said the U.S. urged the Soviet Union not to use force against the demonstrators. It said U.S. Amb. Jack Matlock met senior Soviet officials yesterday to remind them of Helsinki Accord commitments and the right of peaceful assembly. A fire damaged much of the U.S. embassy in Moscow today. A Marine guard and a construction worker were injured in the blaze, which broke out in an elevator shaft that was being renovated. The State Department has ruled out foul play, but said much of the sensitive communications area of the building was destroyed. Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: Pres. Bush and Army Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf appear to have sorted out their differences over who recommended what on the timing of ending the war. The general told television interviewer David Frost that he had recommended that the allies keep fighting the Iraqis when the President decided on a cessation of hostilities. Yesterday Mr. Bush said there had been no such disagreement. This afternoon Defense Sec. Dick Cheney told the NewsHour about a phone call today between the President and the general.

SEC. CHENEY: The President talked with Gen. Schwarzkopf today. They had a very good conversation. The President assured Gen. Schwarzkopf that he's got total confidence in him and as far as he's concerned the matter's closed.

MS. WOODRUFF: The State Department said Iraqi troops launched a major air and artillery assault on the rebel-held city of Kirkuk in Northern Iraq today, but in the South, rebels said they recaptured the holy city of Karballa after fierce fighting with government troops. Iraqi television showed pictures of Kirkuk today. Baghdad Radio claimed the city was under government control. Iraq also released pictures of damage to the Southern City of Basra, which it said it continued to control. But refugees leaving Southern Iraq reported renewed fighting in and around the city. Iran today denied that it is aiding the rebels in Iraq. Iranian Pres. Rafsanjani said while his country supports the cause of the Iraqi rebels, it is not sending troops or weapons to help them. The first two aircraft carriers returned from the Persian Gulf today. Crowds of well wishers at the Mayport Naval Station in Florida were on hand to greet the crewmen on board the USS Saratoga. The 6000 member unit lost one pilot during the air war and twenty-one sailors in a ferry accident just before Christmas. In Norfolk, Virginia, this afternoon thousands of friends and family members welcomed back the USS Kennedy. It was part of an eight ship contingency carrying 12,000 sailors and airmen.

MR. MacNeil: Supporters of the Brady Bill on gun control gained an ally today, former President Ronald Reagan. Mr. Reagan and his press secretary, James Brady, were shot 10 years ago in an assassination attempt. Brady suffered brain damage and was left paralyzed in the attack. The bill, which was named for Brady, calls for a seven day waiting period for handgun purchases. Mr. Reagan publicly declared his support during the ceremony at George Washington University Hospital in Washington where his wounds were treated. Later, the former President returned to the White House to lobby his successor on the issue. Presidents Bush and Reagan spoke to reporters in the White House Rose Garden.

PRES. BUSH: We're going to be discussing that. I'm very interested in the President's view on that.

REPORTER: Do you think Pres. Reagan is wrong?

PRES. BUSH: You misunderstood me. I just said I want to talk to him and get his views on this.

REPORTER: Pres. Reagan, do you think Pres. Bush should now support the Brady Bill?

PRES. REAGAN: I don't think it would be proper for me or any other ex-President to stand and tell an acting President what he should or shouldn't do. I happen to believe in the Brady Bill because we have that same thing in California right now.

REPORTER: Why did you change your mind after 10 years?

PRES. REAGAN: I didn't. I was against a lot of the ridiculous things that were proposed about -- with regard to gun control -- and I've heard this and read it, that I have supposedly said that I was opposed to that kind of thing. No, because, as I say, a number of states, including my own state, had it.

MR. MacNeil: Former Florida Gov. Bob Martinez was sworn in today as Pres. Bush's new drug policy director at a White House ceremony. The President said the country had made solid progress in fighting illegal drug use, but the problem remained intolerably large. Martinez said the drug education programs would always be needed to warn young people away from drug use.

MS. WOODRUFF: In economic news, IBM said it plans to eliminate more than 10,000 jobs from its work force this year. This follows yesterday's announcement by the computer giant that 4,000 other workers would go off the payroll in the sale of its office products business. Just last week the company projected sharply lower profits for the year. In Washington, the government said consumer spending jumped .6 percent in February. That was the largest increase in five months. One of the causes, the government said, was a rise in earnings. Personal income was also up last month .2 percent.

MR. MacNeil: That's our summary of the news. Now it's on to the new power struggle in Moscow, the Los Angeles police beating, and more on Pres. Reagan and gun control. FOCUS - RED STAR FALLING?

MR. MacNeil: Our lead story tonight is the latest political unrest in the Soviet capital, Moscow, where thousands of pro democracy protesters took to the streets today despite a recent Kremlin ban on public demonstrations. Tim Ewert of Independent Television News has a report on today's showdown between the Communist authorities and supporters of Mikhail Gorbachev's chief political rival, Boris Yeltsin.

MR. EWERT: The Kremlin was cut off this evening, all roads leading to it blocked, thousands of troops and police deployed to enforce the ban on what Mr. Gorbachev's opponents hoped would be a massive display of support for Boris Yeltsin. Thousands of protesters defied that ban, chanting "Gorbachev resign" and "Yeltsin, Yeltsin", but the overwhelming turnout of security forces was enough to guarantee the crowds were bottled up in streets well away from Red Square. Soldiers and militiamen appeared to carry no firearms, but they were prepared for trouble. Water cannon lined the main demonstration route and rubber truncheons were handed out by officers. The military was already in place as Mr. Yeltsin arrived for a vital meeting of the full parliament of his Russian republic this morning. He faces a vote of no confidence by his opponents. Russian MPs complained angrily about the presence of troops on the streets and voted to overturn a three week ban on demonstrations ordered under a Presidential decree issued by Mr. Gorbachev. But the Soviet leader said the ban and the troops would stay. The authorities will now be able to claim they've blocked an illegal march and avoided violence. Inside his barricaded Kremlin tonight Mr. Gorbachev knows the Yeltsin challenge is far from over.

MR. MacNeil: Yeltsin told reporters he was happy with the Russian Congress vote rejecting the Kremlin's ban on demonstrations. He had expected to face a challenge from hardliners opposed this campaign for president of the republic. Correspondent Gaby Rado of Independent Television News has a report on what's behind Yeltsin's popular appeal.

MR. RADO: Boris Yeltsin in Leningrad, at the giant Kerov industrial complex. This is vintage Yeltsin. He was invited to come here at 9 in the morning, but got here at 7, when the shift started, mixing well, speaking the language of the workers, themselves. By early evening at the end of his brief visit to Leningrad, it is clear why so many Russians feel so warmly towards Boris Yeltsin.

WOMAN: [Speaking through Interpreter] It's his kindness, his honesty and the sort of feeling every one person has -- for him is a feeling of love. We trust him.

MAN: [Speaking through Interpreter] If it wasn't for Yeltsin, Gorbachev would be in eternal sleep. He's one of a kind and he's the one who will get Russia back on her feet again.

MR. RADO: The mayor of Leningrad, Anatoly Sobchak, is one of the key figures in the Soviet Union's hard pressed democratic movement.

ANATOLY SOBCHAK, Mayor of Leningrad: [Speaking through Interpreter] Very few of our politicians today enjoy the real trust of the people. That ensures the success of Yeltsin and his program. And he does have a program. It isn't just Yeltsin by himself. It's a team, a certain political direction. It's a program.

MR. RADO: There was little in Yeltsin's early life to suggest non-conformity. After graduating, his career was a classic one under the Communist system. His leadership of a construction enterprise got him notice, and he became first secretary of the party in Svedlosk, in the Urals. In 1985, the new Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, called Yeltsin to Moscow, and he was a rising star until 1987 when he clashed with Gorbachev over the pace of reform. In '89, he was elected to the New Union Congress on a radical ticket and last year on becoming chairman of the Russian Federation, he left the Communist Party. Yeltsin's opponents fear that after this month's referendum, his virtually certain election to the presidency of Russia by popular vote will make him too powerful.

VLADIMIR ISAKOV, Senior Deputy, Russian Federation: [Speaking through Interpreter] Power changes a man very much and Boris Yeltsin today is not the Boris Yeltsin I knew yesterday. Tremendous power and authority changed him and, unfortunately, not for the better. Presidential power is even greater. It's given by the people and not controlled by the parliament. I believe that the removal of obstacles to him becoming President will not be for the benefit of Yeltsin or Russia.

MR. RADO: Radical Democrats, like Gavril Popov, the mayor of Moscow, see Yeltsin as a standard bearer, though not necessarily their choice to replace Gorbachev.

GAVRIL POPOV, Mayor of Moscow: [Speaking through Interpreter] If it hadn't been for the referendum, Yeltsin would have had grave problems at this Congress. But now after the referendum it will be very difficult for many deputies at the Congress to vote openly against Yeltsin. That's because the Russian Republican has expressed its opinion about him frankly enough. Nevertheless, I think the situation at the coming Congress will be extremely dangerous and very difficult.

BORIS YELTSIN, Chairman, Russian Federation: [Speaking through Interpreter] I expect a struggle, a struggle of two blocs. One bloc will fight the system -- destroy it -- and fight for democratic Russia. The other bloc will fight to overthrow Yeltsin, Prime Minister Zalaev and today's leadership. It will attempt to replace us with such forces which will reverse not only Perestroika but all democratic reforms in Russia. I think in view of the support here I will win.

MR. MacNeil: Now we hear from a reporter who witnessed today's demonstration. James Carney is a Moscow Correspondent for Time Magazine. I talked with him a short while ago. James Carney thank you for joining is. We've just heard Yeltsin predicting he would win in the power struggle. Did he in effect win today?

MR. CARNEY: Well I think he won today's battle in this on going power struggle between himself and President Gorbachev. I don't think that he won such a large battle that its smooth sailing for him from now on. However I do think that by winning the vote in the Russian Congress which allowed him to proceed with the demonstration and having the demonstration come off with out any violence was a real victory for him today.

MR. MacNeil: Now he was supposed to face a vote of confidence in the Russian Parliament in an attempt to oust him. Did the vote on the demonstration replace that?

MR. CARNEY: Well I don't think that it did. I think it now strengthens Yeltsin's hand if the vote does come up in the next few days of the Congress when it resumes. What it showed when it comes to placing Russians against Russians on the streets of Moscow even Communists and non Communists can find themselves on the same side in the Russian Congress and that must have been a sobering indication to Gorbachev that he has quite a competitor here to contend with.

MR. MacNeil: Was the demonstration designed to save Yeltsin's bacon?

MR. CARNEY: Ithink it was. It was called way back when the first mentions for a vote of no confidence and a request by the Russian Communists to hold a Congress. Right away the Russian Democratic movement said that it planned to hold a demonstration on March 28th in order to support Yeltsin and it gained quite a deal of significance as the weeks passed by and Yeltsin called for Gorbachev's resignation and then declared his war on the leadership which was followed by a massive demonstration near the Kremlin several weeks ago. So I think that it was designed to show the degree of support that Yeltsin enjoys and in a way scare the Russian Communists from trying to take him out of power.

MR. MacNeil: Now to the demonstration itself did you witness any risk of violence or were both sides very restrained in this?

MR. CARNEY: Well in general both the police and the soldier and on the other side the demonstrators did handle themselves very well. There were several instances which I witness of scuffles between some demonstrators and police and soldier as they were trying to clear the main street which leads to the Kremlin which the demonstrators wanted to march down had they continued with their demonstration the way they planned. At one point some soldiers roughed up some demonstrators and they tried to push them from the main street to an alley way. But there was no serious violence and no level where it seemed that serious violence would break out.

MR. MacNeil: How many people is your estimate were out in the demonstration today?

MR. CARNEY: Well this is always a tough call. Especially today when the people were lined up on a major road in Moscow all the way from Puskin Square to Miacofsky Square and I would say that is about a quarter of a mile. I would say there were at least 300,000 people judging from past demonstrations. Or about 300,000 people which would make it significant on size comparing it to previous demonstrations.

MR. MacNeil: Were the demonstrations specially calling for Gorbachev to go as Yeltsin himself has done or do they want Gorbachev to join Yeltsin in faster reform. Can you give a sense of that?

MR. CARNEY: Oh absolutely the demonstrators who have filed in to squares in these rallies have been calling for Gorbachev's resignation for quite a while, at least in chants. even before Yeltsin himself took the plunge and made the call. So today it has become quite a regular phenomenon to hear demonstrators chant Gorbachev resign, Gorbachev leave, yes to Yeltsin, no to Gorbachev and down with the Communist Party and those sort of things. So they are very much in line with Yeltsin and some times they get a little ahead of him.

MR. MacNeil: Was it shown on Soviet television, the demonstration and outside Moscow?

MR. CARNEY: It was shown. I caught a little bit of the nightly news when I came back and there were some pictures shown on the news. Nothing that dramatic but again nothing dramatic happened. So they gave it fair play. The commentary, of course, was skewed towards Gorbachev's government point of view.

MR. MacNeil: So what do you think today's demonstration and events add up to and how it changes the political dynamics?

MR. CARNEY: Well I think the most important thing that happened today is that the demonstrations have brought the conflicts that had taken place in outlaying Republics in to Moscow. When Gorbachev came to the point where he felt that he had to call out soldiers and police and mounted police and trucks with hoses and that sort of thing it brought a level of tension and conflict that has only been seem in the Soviet Union in Republics like Lithuania and Latvia. It is a dangerous sign of what may come because he has taken that step when the next demonstration comes and he feels there is a reason to ban it he will be almost forced to employ the same force that he showed today and I think that only means there could be escalation.

MR. MacNeil: Well James Carney thank you for joining us.

MR. CARNEY: My pleasure.

MR. MacNeil: Now some perspectives on the day's events in Moscow comes from the chief spokesman of the Soviet embassy in Washington, Leonid Dobrokhotov, Leon Aron is a senior fellow in Soviet affairs at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, Milan Svec is a fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, he served as Czechoslovakia's acting ambassador to the U.S. before defecting in the late '80s, and Stephen Cohen teaches Soviet politics at Princeton University. Stephen, what does today mean in the struggle of Gorbachev vs. Yeltsin?

MR. COHEN: Well, it depends on how you look at it. You have to make this decision what is the single most important thing in the Soviet Union today? I would argue it's to save this fragile democratic process that was created two years ago, therefore, you have to ask the following question: Is it the right thing to do to bring hundreds of thousands of people into the street at a moment when a parliament, which is a new phenomenon in the Soviet Union is meeting to resolve weighty issues, and which may, people in the street, provoke a violent reaction by the forces of order? Does that abet democracy and push it forward, as the Yeltsin people say, or does it threaten to undermine the whole democratic process, as Gorbachev argues? That's the issue.

MR. MacNeil: Or is Mr. Gorbachev provoking the threat to democracy by mounting such a huge show of force in trying to ban such a demonstration?

MR. COHEN: Well, that's right. I mean, the rally was called first. Gorbachev said you can't have a rally while the parliament's meeting on a work day in the middle of the city. They said, we're going to do it anyway. He said, therefore, I'm going to ban it. And you've got "chip on the shoulder" type of politics going on. The question is, is this type of high noon confrontation, chip on the shoulder politics, could Yeltsin or Gorbachev win? I'm inclined to think that they're both going to lose if this continues.

MR. MacNeil: How do you feel about it, Mr. Aron? Are both going to lose?

MR. ARON: Well, I think the -- assigning blame equally to both the democrats and the people around Gorbachev now is a mistake. I believe that 300,000 miners who are on strike, in addition to 1/2 million people who demonstrated before and probably 300,000 people who demonstrated today, all they ask for is that a legitimate government be installed in Moscow. It's been the problem of the Gorbachev regime through and through his years of reign that he was never elected by the people, that the Supreme Soviet, itself, was elected through a procedure that at best could be called quasi- democratic, and of course, is not considered legitimate at all, and without a legitimate government, the government that people trust, the Soviet Union could not implement their radical and very painful economic reform.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Dobrokhotov, how do you see it, does it weaken Mr. Gorbachev today to ban demonstrations and does it weaken his authority and then see this one happen anyway?

MR. DOBROKHOTOV: I believe that Mr. Gorbachev is responsible to prevent any violence and he wants the democracy to continue. I believe that he's afraid that any violence and any using of force from the side of military or from the side of this crowd on the street will provoke to stop the democratic process in the Soviet Union. So I believe that maybe it reflects his responsibility as a leader of the country in the first and the second. I believe that any old cliches and stereotypes, anti-Communist stereotypes and analysis of the situation are wrong. I believe that Gorbachev is a leader of the democratic process in the Soviet Union. He initiated it and he tried to continue it now. It's my opinion.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Svec, is Gorbachev the leader of the democratic process? Does today show that?

MR. SVEC: As of today, I would say that he probably still has a chance to lead the process if he produces second phase of reforms, if he makes it clear what exactly he wants to build. As of today, the events that we saw definitely helped Yeltsin, but if we ask the question did the events of today help the reform, as was the very original question, I think that the reform lost today, because what we see in Soviet politics increasingly are two sides whose goals are irreconcilable, and it has been shown today again. None of the sides is capable of governing. Gorbachev together with the KGB, the army, the party, has the means. These are the structures that he can call, they can act, but they don't have a program; they don't have ideas. Yeltsin has ideas; he has now around him the best and the brightest. He is definitely more democratic, more open- minded, but on the all union level, he lacks the means. So if they will not be able to bridge the defenses, we are probably to see prolonged conflict and the country, obviously, will pay for that?

MR. MacNeil: Can Gorbachev, Steve Cohen, still reassert leadership of the reform movement, or has he ceded that to Yeltsin now by appearing to join the reactionaries?

MR. COHEN: Well, he claims he's still the leader of the reform movement. He says --

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Dobrokhotov says he --

MR. COHEN: But I mean Gorbachev last 10 major speeches, he says, I'm continuing the market reform, I'm doing what's unpopular, and this very interesting. Every reform economist in the Soviet Union says that these artificially low state prices have to be raised. Gorbachev raised them. Yeltsin protests against the raising of those prices. Let us say that tomorrow Mr. Yeltsin becomes the leader of the Soviet Union. What's he going to do about the prices? He can't lower them. What's he going to about the 300,000 strikers who say they won't go back in the pits unless they get more money? There is no money. You can print more, but that worsens inflation. The same set of problems involved in a transition from a state economy to a market economy would face any leader of the Soviet Union. And by the way, it's not correct to say that the conservatives, who are against both Gorbachev and Yeltsin, don't have a program. They do have a program. It's this -- the fist. They now talk about a kind of Chilean, South Korean solution to the Soviet Union's problems, that the mistake made, say the conservatives, was the democracy. Close down the democracy and we'll impose the market reforms on the country. That's waiting in the wings, slouching from the provinces toward Moscow, and this confrontation between Gorbachev and Yeltsin could open the door.

MR. MacNeil: Let us pursue the question of Yeltsin's viability for the moment. Mr. Aron, is Yeltsin emerging as a viable alternative to Gorbachev?

MR. ARON: I think we have to distinguish what we mean by alternative to Gorbachev. I don't think Yeltsin wants to be the president of the Soviet Union, for example. I think Yeltsin would like to remove Moscow as the factor that interferes with the radical economic reform in Russia and in other republics. And in that regard, I would like to comment on what Mr. Cohen said. You can't forget that it was Gorbachev who went back on a very hopeful agreement with Yeltsin last October, and, in effect, substituted for a very radical economic reform 500 days, which Russian parliament, the Russian parliament, did, in fact, pass, substituted the kind of reform and further adopted the sort of measures that his former economic adviser, Stanislav Shatalin, called "spontaneous suicide".

MR. MacNeil: Yeah. So what are you saying out of that, that Gorbachev has himself torpedoed and he can't --

MR. ARON: Correct. I think last October Gorbachev I think quite logically decided that the further democratization and the further movement towards market reform was not compatible with the three political possessions he held dearest to his heart, the preservation of the Soviet Union, the continuing dominance of the state property over private property, and finally, Gorbachev's presidency, itself. And I think at that point, he decided to cast his lot with the hard line.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Dobrokhotov, is Yeltsin now emerging in, with all the popular support he has, as the kind of rival that we in the Western press see him as, and is he seriously threatening now Mr. Gorbachev's domination of the Soviet scene?

MR. DOBROKHOTOV: Well, see, I believe that the image of Mr. Yeltsin that is covering in the Western media, in the United States media, is not very correct. I believe that we must fight now with image of evils and idols in the same time. I believe that it's something same as a creating as the new cultive personality of Yeltsin in the United States media. I believe that he is very serious political leader, but he is human being, as Gorbachev too. Gorbachev had a lot of mistake and he said about it very self critics, and Yeltsin had many of them too, and Yeltsin, as Gorbachev, is responsible personally for this political and economical and social crisis in the Soviet Union, because he served 10 years as the first secretary of the Sverlovspotic Committee. He served as party boss in Moscow. He served as the person responsible for the building, construction after it, and so on and so on. So he is responsible for it, and maybe you let me commend Mr. Aron about 500 days plan. Mr. Gavril Popov, the mayor of Moscow, and the main ally of Mr. Yeltsin, he said that this plan from economical point of view is absolute nonsense! And I agree with it absolutely. But Mr. Popov continued, but it's very important as a point to fight with the government. You see, it's very interesting. I believe that now this appeal to the absolutely unsatisfied public on the streets is as a result that unfortunately -- I say unfortunately because I believe we need the opposition, but we need in the construction opposition -- I believe that this appeal to the street is a result that unfortunately our opposition fall in their resolving of concrete economical problems in Russia federation, in Moscow, and Leningrad, and their popularity fall tremendously. For example, personal popularity of Yeltsin fall in four times. It was public opinion polls arranged by the independent, anti-Communist press that was published in January in the Soviet Union. It is the reality.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Svec, do you think that we in the Western press are falsely building a cultive, inappropriate stature for Mr. Yeltsin?

MR. SVEC: I don't think so. What is happening is that there is a very formidable player in Soviet politics, Yeltsin, whose influence is growing, and obviously it draws attention of Western press I see totally normal. But if I go on and try to see who is Yeltsin, what does all that mean for Soviet politics, I see that as of today, still Yeltsin's influence is much stronger as an age of a politician than as a politician who could more effectively govern than Gorbachev, because all the means of power when you look at the grassroot, and the structure of the power, are in the hands of Gorbachev as of today.

MR. MacNeil: Even if Mr. Yeltsin were to succeed in getting a popular vote as president of the Russian federation?

MR. SVEC: Even that for some time, because look what will happen if Yeltsin were popularly elected. He would have Russian parliament on his side. He would have legitimacy. Against him would be still working formidable Communist Party, as of today still having 17 million people. Our strongest party in Soviet politics, democratic party of Russia, the main supporter of Yeltsin, has 20,000 members, probably 25,000. You see, it's almost a disproportionate force. Also, all this army, still its loyalty would go with the conservatives for Gorbachev. You see the KGB loyalty will be with Gorbachev and as far as the economic plan is concerned, of course, Gorbachev doesn't have any coherent plan aside from relying on the soldiers gathering the Soviet wheat from the fields, but neither honestly do I believe as of today the democrats are united behind any program that they could be sure the Russians, although the Soviet people could support, so it's pretty much an open game still.

MR. MacNeil: An open game, Steve Cohen, so how is this conflict going to unroll in the next few weeks and months as the Russian people apparently get more and more unsatisfied with their --

MR. COHEN: What's going to happen or how I think it could be solved?

MR. MacNeil: How the conflict is going to play itself out.

MR. COHEN: Well, a lot depends on whether there's any compromise left in these two leaders, Yeltsin and Gorbachev. Let me tell you what my friends, most of whom now disagree with me in Moscow, my friends in Moscow, say. Yeltsin now has become the symbol of all the resentments build up in the Soviet Union over decades. He is the avatar of protests, the avenging angel that will smite down an unjust government, and right all wrongs. That's why he's so popular.

MR. MacNeil: It's a halo that Gorbachev, himself, wearing a few years ago.

MR. COHEN: All right. My friends are intellectuals, they're liberals, and they're democrats. Do they think that Yeltsin is a liberal democrat? They do not. And they are in a peculiar position. They have now brought themselves to support Yeltsin against Gorbachev. They do not want to see Yeltsin become leader of the country. And there is the dilemma. A poll was taken in Moscow in February. I think Leonid referred to the same poll -- February -- taken by a democratic polling institution, so it wasn't cooked data. It asked people whom would you like to see as president of the country? 19 percent wanted Gorbachev. 19 percent wanted Yeltsin and the rest didn't want anybody.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Aron, how do you see the conflict playing itself out?

MR. ARON: Well, I think that last --

MR. MacNeil: Bearing in mind what Mr. Svec said about the relative power that Gorbachev --

MR. ARON: Well, you know, we know that there is a power of grassroots movement. Before there was an anti-Communist revolution and a democratic revolution in Mr. Svec's country, Czechoslovakia, there were no party at all that was opposed to the Communist Party and then what will happen. So I would not start comparing quantitatively who has more people. It seems to me that unfortunately with Gorbachev moving to the right, towards the hard line last October, the three major strands of the Soviet crisis, the economic, the political and federal, that is, nationalities and the Republics, got tightened in guerdon knot that leaves very very little room for compromise and can only be cut by essentially the victor in the political struggle. I'm afraid that last fall Gorbachev set in moment the trend that would only lead to a collision, and I hope it will not be wild.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Dobrokhotov, the correspondent in Moscow said that today was, pointed to further escalations if the conflict continues in the future and further confrontations, what do you think?

MR. DOBROKHOTOV: Well --

MR. MacNeil: Since Mr. Gorbachev had called out the armed forces this time and had them there that he could do no less the next time.

MR. DOBROKHOTOV: I felt that maybe it was two parts in this day. First, the part of the date was the real confrontation, and it was very danger. From my point of view, all democratic forces and I believe that Gorbachev and Yeltsin both are in the one camp because we have the real rightists and real enemies of any democratic changes in the country. It is a great tragedy that now they are fighting one against another, but the second day of -- the second part of the day showed that both tried to compromise. Gorbachev said that he will lead out all the troops from the center of Moscow tomorrow, but in the same time, Yeltsin appealed to the crowd not to violent and to provoke militant --

MR. MacNeil: I'm sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Dobrokhotov. I have to leave it there. Thank you, Mr. Svec, Aron, and Steve Cohen. Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: Still ahead, the Los Angeles police beating and former President and Mrs. Reagan. UPDATE - PATTERN OF ABUSE?

MS. WOODRUFF: We turn next to the police brutality that has focused national attention on Los Angeles. The videotaped police beating of motorist Rodney King has caused many in that city to examine how complaints of police violence are handled. Correspondent Jeff Kaye of public station KCET reports on the aftermath of the beginning.

MR. KAYE: Three Los Angeles police officers and a sergeant have entered "not guilty" pleas to assault charges arising from the videotaped beating of Rodney King. Now the Los Angeles County grand jury is investigating the 17 other officers from the Foothill Division who watched the beating and the U.S. Justice Department is examining police brutality nationally.

PRES. BUSH: We've all seen the shocking videotapes and seen transcripts of the incident in Los Angeles, and without getting into the specifics of the case, those terrible scenes have stir us al to demand an end to gratuitous violence and brutality.

MR. KAYE: Following Pres. Bush's condemnation of the King beating, as well as complaints by civil rights advocates, FBI agents began to interview police officers from the Foothill Division. But many officers have refused to cooperate in what is reported to be a widening investigation of officer misconduct. Police critics have long complained about police brutality and inadequate discipline. At least two of the officers charged in the King beating have been involved in previous incidents involving allegations of excessive force. OfficerTed Bresenio was suspended for 66 days three years ago for kicking a handcuffed man, and Officer Lawrence Powell is facing at least two pending complaints, one that accuses him of breaking a suspect's elbow. The background of the spectator officers are unknown because most records of alleged police misconduct are kept secret. The documents obtained by the NewsHour indicate that one of the officers who stood by, Robert Simpac, took part in a remarkably similar incident in the same neighborhood, another one involving officers from the Foothill Division.

JOSE DESOSA, NAACP: Excessive force was used, uncalled for force. We feel that this was a violation of the individual's civil rights because to date we have not been given anything that he could be charged with.

MR. KAYE: In 1982, activists protested the police killing of 20 year old James Mincy. Mincy had driven to his family home after being pursued by Officer Simpac, who had intended to cite Mincy for a broken windshield. Simpac twice sprayed mace into Mincy's face after Mincy left his car. His mother and stepfather recall how they and several neighbors looked on.

ALFRED FOWLER: When he sprayed it in his face, then quite naturally, you know, he stooped over and was trying to get the mace out of his eyes, and then I went to his mother, you know, to bring him a towel so he could, you know, wipe his face, get this mace out of his eyes.

ROZELLA FOWLER: It was like he was trying to get the stuff out of his eyes, but there was officers on both sides, one holding him on one side and one holding him on the other side, so he didn't have the use of his hands at all.

MR. KAYE: According to police accounts of the incident, when other officers arrived on the scene, Mincy was hurled to the ground. Officer Simpac and others held him down while a fellow officer applied a choke hold.

ROZELLA FOWLER: They hog tied him. They had his feet tied and he had the handcuffs on. When they put that -- when they choked him, he was tied up like a hog. When I came out saying, oh, my God, you don't have to kill him, he was tied up and couldn't even help himself.

ALFRED FOWLER: And that's when she saw, you know, that they just put the choke hold on him and seen blood come out of his mouth and she said, "You killed him."

MR. KAYE: Mincy died two weeks later without regaining consciousness. Did what you've seen at the King beating bring memories back to you of what happened to your son?

ALFRED FOWLER: It gives me chills. It's just like opening up a wound and it has gotten to the point that I can't bear to look at it anymore.

MR. KAYE: Officer Simpac, who has been assigned to a desk job since the King beating, did not return our phone calls. The City of Los Angeles has offered $900,000 to settle a lawsuit brought by Mincy's family, but no criminal charges were ever filed in the Mincy case. Police won't say what, if any, discipline was meted out to the officers, but lawyers who specialize in police misconduct cases say only a small percentage of citizen complaints result in police discipline, even if the city pays off a lawsuit on a police officer. In the last 10 years, the City of LA paid out more than $35 million in judgments and awards due to police misconduct.

ZEV YAROSLAVSKY, Los Angeles City Council: Why does the policy of the city allow for some of those cases which have been adjudicated against us in large sums of money, those cases which are found not to be in policy, to what extent are we meting out serious discipline to send the correct message through the disciplinary system --

MR. KAYE: The King incident prompted some officials to call for an examination of the system to see whether the checks and balances are adequate. Lawyer Thomas Beck contends the prosecution of officers said to be involved in the King beating is an aberration. Beck says the Los Angeles District Attorney rarely prosecutes police officers for brutality.

THOMAS BECK, Lawyer: We have physical evidence, videotaped evidence even better than the King case, because it's closer and it's in color, of a person being seriously choked out, being struck repeatedly with a baton, where the person is not offering any resistance.

MR. KAYE: In this 1988 incident, police from the City of Torrance, which is in Los Angeles County, were called to quell a fight at a party. Two officers beat and choked a bystander. The city ended up paying out $105,000 to settle a lawsuit brought by the beating victim.

MR. BECK: Notwithstanding the commission of two serious felonies in that case, the District Attorney declined to file criminal charges against those officers on the grounds that there was insufficient evidence to secure a conviction. I find that absurd, and that is another illustration of what I mean by the DA being in bed with the police agency. They are not independent and the Torrance case is just, you know, a good example of it, but it occurs over and over in other times and places.

MR. KAYE: A spokesman for the Los Angeles County District Attorney said prosecutors were too busy to comment on these allegations and he said they also didn't have time to compile statistics on the number of police officers they have prosecuted.

ANNOUNCER: [Public Service Announcement] If you have been a victim of any type of police abuse, you should conduct the Police Misconduct Lawyer Referral Service at --

SPOKESPERSON: [On Phone] And then they mad you lie face down on the ground?

MR. KAYE: Since the King incident, calls to the referral service have doubled. Counselors say they are now handling 50 complaints a day. The independent referral service advises citizens on how to file complaints of police misconduct. The public often distrusts the police complaint system, according to executive director, Karol Heppe.

KAROL HEPPE, Police Misconduct Referral Service: They feel that it doesn't serve any purpose except the police department's purposes, to cover their own, their own back, when there's violations on the streets because we have the first part of the complaint, the citizen's complaint, goes to the division where the officer is employed, it's investigated by fellow officers, who are usually friends of theirs, investigating complaints against them.

SPOKESMAN: And then the officer says that the suspect swung a foot out and when he did that, the officer fired another round and hit him in the other leg.

MR. KAYE: Los Angeles Police Chief Daryl Gates, who reviews most disciplinary cases, has been giving his officers stern warnings on the use of force.

CHIEF DARYL GATES, LAPD: When it says you will use only that force which is reasonable, which is necessary, that is the law. Anything you do to bring a cloud over that badge affects us all.

MR. KAYE: To the consternation of critics, the vast majority of complaints by citizens alleging excessive force are dismissed. Police officers believe that misconduct is dealt with severely.

SGT. PAM ROBERTS, Los Angeles Police Department: In the places that I've worked misconduct in any sense of the word is investigated fully. I think sometimes even as officers we think we're scrutinized too much and some of our freedomsor rights are taken from us, and we feel as though we don't have as many rights as citizens in the field.

MR. KAYE: Activists are not convinced. Many contend that police should not police themselves, that, instead, there should be a civilian review board or a special prosecutor. But the main emphasis of police critics has been to try to pressure Chief Gates to step down. Mayor Tom Bradley has come close to calling for his resignation.

MAYOR TOM BRADLEY, Los Angeles: [March 20] And perhaps by removing yourself, that a healing process can take place, and maybe some friends who are impartial, who are respected by the chief, ought to be talking to him.

MR. KAYE: The American Civil Liberties Union has been busy gathering petitions in a campaign to oust Gates. They and other critics say that not only has the chief tolerated police brutality, he has allowed racism to infect his department. They point to the King case in which white officers beat an unarmed black man and relayed racist computer messages between police cars. Just before the incident, one message referred to a family dispute as "right out of gorillas in the mist". A response mocking black English came back, "Ha, ha, ha, ha -- let me guess who be the parties." After the King beating, one officer wrote, "You just had a big time use of force." The reply, "Oh, well, I'm sure the lizard didn't deserve it -- ha, ha." Then, "Oops, I haven't beaten anyone this bad in a long time."

CARL DOUGLAS, Lawyer: There has to be a tremendous level of belief that there is not going to be any repercussions from this for there to be classically blatant racist remarks going back and forth, jokes about the savage beating of Mr. King. That, I think, speaks to there being an absence of moral leadership at the time.

MR. KAYE: Through all of this, Gates has vowed to stay in office.

CHIEF GATES: Tell me how can I do anything else, but stay? With this kind of support, this kind of support --

MR. KAYE: LA police officers have rallied to the defense of Chief Gates, but many feel that charges of excessive force and racism have eroded community good will towards the police department.

SGT. PAM ROBERTS, Los Angeles Police Dept.: We're all real frustrated. You almost, you drive around and you feel like even though you weren't there, you might as well have been there, because you're treated like you were there. I don't care what anyone says. We are not all out here on a daily basis mistreating people and not giving them the respect that they deserve. Would you like to stop the tape? I'm going to break up a fight.

SGT. ROBERTS: [Talking to Crowd of Youngsters] What's the problem out here, you guys? Where are the two guys who are fightin'?

SGT. ROBERTS: They need us out here. We need to be here for them, but I think what I know in my heart that you want to see come back is a belief, the fact that they believe in us.

SGT. ROBERTS: [Talking to Same Youngsters] Come here, talk to me! Will you talk to me! What's going on out here?

MR. KAYE: But building community confidence in the police department may be a tall order as federal and local investigations continue. Yesterday Chief Gates announced a 10 point plan to restore confidence in the Los Angeles Police Department.

DARYL GATES, Chief, Los Angeles Police Dept.: There is unanimous consensus that there must be a thorough and diligent search for any of the underlying reasons why those officers engaged in such lawlessness. We must look for any and all conditions that may have contributed to the development of attitudes and patterns of behavior that could have led to this kind of gross misconduct.

MR. KAYE: The program includes a panel to review police training procedures, a hotline for citizens to report complaints of excessive force, and improved monitoring of police operations. But police critics immediately denounced the Gates program as too little, too late. FINALLY - SPEAKING OUT

MS. WOODRUFF: We close tonight with some words from former Pres. Ronald Reagan and former First Lady Nancy Reagan. Ten years ago this week, Mr. Reagan, his press secretary, James Brady, and secret service agent Tim McCarthy were rushed to the George Washington University Hospital after they were shot by John Hinckley. At a ceremony today, the former President was awarded an honorary degree. He talked about the attack and his views on the Brady Bill, legislation now in Congress that would require a waiting period before a handgun could be sold.

PRES. REAGAN: It's hard to believe that a decade has passed since our lives came together in a way none of us could have ever imagined. You've all been told what happened on March 30, 1981. A scene in a routine public appearance came perilously close to being a very dark chapter in history, but the people of the George Washington Hospital would have none of that. With no warning or time to get ready, they got the call, the one they practiced for and thought about, but probably never expected would never come, and they made history. With speed, precision and unmatched skill, they did what they do best. I do not think it's an exaggeration to say the Good Lord was looking out for Jim Brady, Tim McCarthy, and me, when He delivered us to the doors of George Washington Hospital. We were healed there and allowed to carry on. For that, we will always be grateful. And speaking of Jim Brady, I want to tell all of you here today something that I'm not sure you know. You do know that I'm a member of the NRA, and my position on the right to bear arms is well known. But I want you to know something else, and I'm going to say it in clear, unmistakable language. I support the Brady Bill and I urge the Congress to enact it -- [applause] With the right to bear arms comes a great responsibility to use caution and common sense on handgun purchases, and it's just plain common sense that there be a waiting period to allow local law enforcement officials to conduct background checks on those who wish to buy a handgun. [applause] The Brady Bill is good legislation and I hope my colleagues at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue will do what's right for the people -- and that means enacting this bill. [applause] And I couldn't mention this bill without adding a special word about its most dedicated supporter, Sarah Brady. [applause] Nancy and I have the greatest respect and affection for Sarah, who is not only an effective and articulate advocate, but an inspiring woman who we're honored to call our friend. [applause]

MS. WOODRUFF: Nancy Reagan was also honored by George Washington University. At today's ceremony she talked about the attack on the President 10 years ago.

MRS. REAGAN: I think there was kind of an unspoken agreement that none of us would let the public know how serious it was and how close we came to losing him. I knew you knew -- but I -- I'm so grateful to you because I was afraid -- grateful to you for many reasons -- but I was so afraid that I would leave this hospital alone. And I remember when we did leave, a doctor said to me, "You know, we could be leaving here under different circumstances." And I said, "Yes, I know." And Iwant to thank you publicly now for making it possible for me to leave not alone. Thank you. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Again, the other main stories of this Thursday, tens of thousands of Soviet citizens defied Mikhail Gorbachev and held an anti-government rally in Moscow. Iraqi troops launched a major counteroffensive against the Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq. Good night, Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: Good night, Robin. That's our NewsHour for tonight. We'll be back tomorrow night with a look at the week with Gergen & Shields. I'm Judy Woodruff. Thank you and good night.