The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. Leading the news this Labor Day, George Bush and Michael Dukakis both made fighting Labor Day speeches, forest fires forced evacuation of two small towns near Yellowstone Park, the son-in-law of former Soviet leader Leonard Brezhnev went on trial in Moscow for corruption. We'll have details in our News Summary in a moment. After the News Summary, we have excerpts from the Labor Day speeches of the two Presidential candidates then our major focus is the political and economic impact of raising the minimum wage. We have a documentary report from Alabama, then a debate between Democratic Sen. Paul Simon and Republican Gordon Humphrey, joined by two political pollsters Harrison Hickman and Bill McInturff. We close with a documentary report on the anger over the way the forest fires in Yellowstone National Park have been fought. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: Michael Dukakis, George Bush and their running mates all hit the campaign trail hard today for the symbolic kickoff to the fall campaign. This afternoon George Bush was in Disneyland, where he participated in a sendoff for the Olympic athletes. Earlier he spoke in San Diego, attacking Dukakis's defense policy.

VICE PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH, GOP Presidential Nominee: My opponent's views on defense are the standard litany of the liberal left no MX, no midgetman, no SDI, and cancel two carrier task forces. What a program. What a program. I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks that a Naval exercise is something you find in Jane Fonda's workout book.

MR. MacNeil: Michael Dukakis spoke in Philadelphia, then to a rally after a Labor Day parade in Detroit, calling Republicans the party of the rich.

GOV. MICHAEL DUKAKIS, Democratic Presidential Nominee: My friends, we're going to win this November because we stand for what the American people stand for. We're a wonderful mosaic of diverse races and creeds and ethnic groups bound together by our love for this country, by our belief in its future and by our deep and abiding faith in the American dream for all of its citizens. And if anyone tells you that that dream belongs to the privileged few and not to all of us, tell them that era is over and a new era is about to begin.

MR. MacNeil: Dukakis was meeting later in St. Louis with his running mate, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen who started the day campaigning in Waco, Texas. He accused George Bush of neglecting the State of Texas and the oil industry he once worked in. His Republican opposite number, Sen. Dan Quayle used the Manhattan skyline as a backdrop to say that the Pledge of Allegiance embodied values that he and George Bush proudly and unapologetically embrace. He made the speech on Liberty Island near the Statue of Liberty. In Moscow today, Yuri Cherbanov, the son-in-law of the late Soviet Leader Leonard Brezhnev, went on public trial, charged with taking more than a million dollars' worth of bribes. We have a report by Ian Glover James of ITN.

IAN GLOVER JAMES: Two hours before the Supreme Court opened, four truckloads of accused arriving for Moscow's biggest trial in years, inside Leonard Brezhnev's son-in-law, going on trial for his life before a military tribunal. Crowds gathered as the hour approached, defense lawyers complaining of trial by press, calling Yuri Cherbanov a product of the system and not its creator. Today Cherbanov stood on the dock with either other officials involved in the great Uzbakistan cotton scandal that creamed off 3 billion pounds' worth of state subsidies paid for crops that had never been planted. They were caught out by satellite photos showing desert where cotton was claimed. A five year investigation headed from Moscow uncovered a vast web of corruption in Uzbakistan. Billions of rubles and gold were seized by state investigators. Chief prosecutor Glian headed the corruption probe. He said everything had a price on it. If you wanted a good job, you had to pay like this. Corrupt officials were protected by corrupt policemen and local party bosses. State investigators unearthed more than milk churns packed with gold. The scandal had a backer in Moscow, Yuri Cherbanov. When he married Brezhnev's daughter, Galena Cherbanovs army career took off. He became Deputy Interior Minister with a Colonel General's rank at just 43. But when Brezhnev died, Cherbanov's place at his side, here standing center in his gray general's uniform, was no longer secure. The net began closing in on Yuri Cherbanov. The 18 years of Brezhnev rule are now called the years of stagnation in Mr. Gorbachev's Soviet Union. There is official disapproval, and the official tone for this trial has been set by Pravda, blasting Cherbanov with a headline, "A Son-in-Law and His Godfathers".

MR. MacNeil: In this country, residents of Cooke City and Silvergate, Montana, fled their homes today to escape the latest fire burning in Yellowstone National Park. The blaze is one of a series that have blackened 1/4 of Yellowstone's 2.2 million acres since early June. Forest fires were also burning in Southern California, Utah, Washington, and Idaho. For Bangladesh, the problem this summer has been too much water. Monsoon rains and heavy flooding have caused more than 400 deaths and swallowed up entire villages. In Bangladesh Itan, some survivors escaped the floodwaters by pitching tents on the roofs of taller buildings. The floods are said to be the worst in memory with 3/4 of that Asian nation submerged under water. In West Germany, another person died of burns today, bringing to 52 the death toll from the Ramstein Air Show disaster a week ago. West German officials said 164 people remain in hospital with injuries 10 of them in life threatening condition. That's our summary of the news. Now it's on to Bush and Dukakis on the stump, raising the minimum wage, and the right and wrong of fighting forest fires. SERIES - '88 - ON THE STUMP

MR. MacNeil: Labor Day has traditionally been the moment when the Presidential campaigns begin in earnest and all the candidates were out today. On the stump tonight we have excerpts from two of their speeches, first Gov. Michael Dukakis speaking at a Labor Day rally in Detroit.

GOV. MICHAEL DUKAKIS: The Republican ticket wants us to be content to stand still, to hang on to what we have, to hope for the best. They want us to forget about the trillion dollars they've added to the national debt, an I.O.U. our children and grandchildren will be paying for generations to come, $150 billion a year in debt service that you and I are paying, a lot of it to foreign bankers. They want us to forget that interest rates went up again, another Republican tax on middle America, a thousand dollars, my friends for every family in this country with an adjustable rate mortgage on their home, $300 on every car loan over a billion dollars in new burdens for family farms who have gone through so much over the past eight years. But that's not all. Friday, as you've just heard, the monthly unemployment numbers came out, rising unemployment for the second month in a row, 226,000 more unemployed Americans and what did Mr. Bush have to say about that? He said, as you've heard, that it was statistically irrelevant, statistically irrelevant. That's an interesting phrase, but not surprising coming as it did from the standard bearer of the party that thought ketchup was a vegetable. My friends, we're here today to tell Mr. Bush that Americans are not statistics and we sure aren't irrelevant, because those unemployed Americans are people. They're citizens, they're our neighbors, they're our friends and on November 8th, he's going to find out just how relevant they and we are. Can we afford a new President? But can we afford a new President who says that Russian auto mechanics should be sent to Detroit because, and this is a quote, we could use that kind of ability, a new President who says he wants to put his Vice President in charge of the war on drugs? President Reagan tried that and it didn't work. Is there anybody, is there anybody in this Plaza today, is there anybody in the United States of America who thinks that Dan Quayle is qualified to be the new drug czar for this country? Can't we do better than that? The Republicans don't believe it's time to raise the minimum wage. $3.35 an hour, hasn't gone up a penny in eight years. We're going to raise that minimum wage and make sure that the people of this country have a decent income. The Republicans didn't want that plant closing bill, but we beat them. The Republicans didn't want that new trade bill that will not only bring those trade barriers down but will help us to train and retrain thousands of American workers and thanks to the leadership of Lloyd Bentsen and Don Riegle and Carl Levin and a great Democratic delegation from Michigan and their colleagues in the Congress and the Senate, we beat them again on the trade bill. My friends, Lloyd Bentsen and I are not going to settle for an America where all we do is flip each other's hamburgers and do each other's laundry for $3.35 an hour. We're not going to accept an America where whole regions of our country are written off as inevitable casualties of change. We're not going to sit back and relax while American ideas and American money are creating more jobs overseas than they are in Dearborn and Flint and Pontiac and Detroit. And so today I say to all of you and to all Americans, if you want a healthy and growing economy that will create real opportunity and real prosperity for every citizen in this land, stand with us, stand with us.

MR. MacNeil: Vice President George Bush made his major appearance of the day at a wholesale fish company in San Diego. Here are excerpts from that speech.

VICE PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH: This campaign is about many things but if I had to set the priorities, I say it's foremost about jobs and peace and it's about protecting the gains that we've made in jobs and peace and it's about how to make new breakthroughs in both areas and new progress. And now I want to give my opponent credit where it's due. It's very generous of him to keep using the words "good jobs at good wages". It's not often that a Democrat goes around reminding voters of Republican accomplishments. The American people are smart. The American people are smart. They know the record, 17 1/2 million new jobs in the past six years, more disposable income from the American people, lower taxes, an increased standard of living, and all my opponent can do is try to tell the American people how bad everything is, how gloomy it is. I see the issue ofjobs as more than a way to keep of our economic triumph. I see it as a gauge of our well being as a nation, and a way to judge our success as a people and so the singular purpose of my economic policy will be to see to it that honest employment is extended to all Americans wherever they live, whatever their circumstances. So when that Democratic-controlled Congress says they'll slow growth by raising federal spending I'll say no, and when they say they'll increase regulation and tie businesses like this one up in knots, I'll say no, and when they say I'll raise taxes, I'll say no, and they'll push and I'll say no again and they'll push and finally I'll say, read my lips, no new taxes. You know where I stand on peace. Almost 8 years after peace, we can be proud that peace is breaking out all over. It didn't happen by accident. It happened when we acted on the ancient knowledge that strength and clarity lead to peace. Weakness and ambivalence lead to war and for 8 years now, we've been strong and I will not allow this country to be made weak again. My opponent's views, my opponent's views on defense are the standard litany of the liberal left, no MX, no midgetman, no SDI, and cancel two carrier task forces. What a program. I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks that Naval exercise is something you find in Jane Fonda's workout book. No, the fact is we're living in a tough world and we can't afford to be governed by blind negative ideology against weapons. We've got to look at every new idea and every defense system from the point of view of will it work, does it make sense, and do we need it to make our country safer and if the answers are yes, then at least it warrants our most serious attention and then sorting out our financial priorities, we cannot just dismiss every new idea with a breezy, we already have enough weapons. That will not keep the peace. The Soviets do not understand that. So thank you very much and if your friends ask you what George Bush said and stands for, tell them I said, America is a great nation. America is strong again and America is at work again. And I'm not going to let them take it away from you. It's going to be a long tough fight. I leave here inspired by all of this, moved by your support, and from here on, part of this campaign is California, here I come, America, here we go. Thank you and God bless you all.

MR. MacNeil: Still to come on the Newshour tonight, the economic and political impact of raising the minimum wage and controversy over fighting the Yellowstone Park fires. FOCUS - PAYCHECK POLITICS

MR. MacNeil: Our major focus tonight is the sharpening debate over whether to raise the minimum wage. Today Secretary of Labor Ann McLaughlin said an across-the-board increase would mean a loss of jobs and a probable increase in inflation. That's the position of Vice President George Bush, who favors a special sub-minimum wage, training wage for teenagers but opposes any across-the-board and immediate increase for the rest of the work force. His opponent, Michael Dukakis and many Congressional Democrats support a gradual increase in the minimum wage and as we've heard today, Dukakis said, the Republicans don't believe it's time to raise the minimum wage; we do. Late last week, Jim Lehrer discussed the issue which is pending before Congress.

MR. LEHRER: There are separate efforts afoot in the House and Senate to raise the minimum wage in this country. Right now it's $3.35 an hour as set by Congress seven years ago. The House version would raise it to $5.05 in several steps over the next four years. The Senate plan would take it to $4.65. There is much political and philosophical as well as economic debate about the minimum wage which we will sample in a few moments with two Senators and two political polling experts. They will follow this Kwame Holman report on how that debate goes in the State of Alabama.

KWAME HOLMAN: Much of Alabama remains rural, agricultural, impoverished. The per capita income here ranks forty-fourth among the fifty states, yet Alabama's cities have undergone an economic boom. During the 70s the steel and textile industries thrived here, attracted by the state's large cheap labor force. Cities like Birmingham saw tremendous growth, but cheaper labor overseas triggered plant shutdowns and the loss of thousands of jobs in the 80s. Today Alabama's industrial work force is a fraction of what it was 10 years ago.

RALPH JOHNSON, Professor of Labor Studies: What we've seen is that the de-industrialization that has happened throughout the nation has been much more rapid and had a much larger impact here, particularly in the Birmingham area.

MR. HOLMAN: Ralph Johnson is Professor of Labor Studies at the University of Alabama, Birmingham.

RALPH JOHNSON, Professor of Labor Studies: We've lost a lot of the manufacturing base and the replacement jobs have been the same kinds of jobs that replace manufacturing throughout the country, retail, services, fast foods.

MR. HOLMAN: What are the salaries for those jobs?

RALPH JOHNSON: There are a lot of minimum wage jobs.

MR. HOLMAN: Philip Humphreys is 17, a stock boy at this grocery in Jasper, Alabama, 50 miles from Birmingham. He started at the minimum wage. In a few months, he got a 15 cent raise to $3.50 an hour. Philip Humphreys says he's content with his pay.

MR. HOLMAN: That's enough for you?

PHILIP HUMPHREYS: It's enough to pay my car payment and to get me around on. I don't plan on staying here all of my life.

MR. HOLMAN: Humphreys works part time as do many others at this small chain store. Nearly half the workers earn the minimum wage. Owner Farrell Franklin says minimum wage workers fall into two categories.

FARRELL FRANKLIN, Sav-Mor Foods: You're dealing with a student that is looking for part-time work and they're inexperienced and obviously that's where we start our $3.35 an hour, the minimum age. And then there's another set of people that is looking for supplementing a primary income.

MR. HOLMAN: Franklin says an increase in the minimum wage eventually would hurt his full-time workers.

FARRELL FRANKLIN: Well, ultimately, full-time employees with the benefits of health costs and so forth, it is much more expensive for us to maintain than the part-time employees are, and ultimately if the wage increase goes up, the benefits have to come down and there's going to be less full-time and more part-time to do the work.

MR. HOLMAN: Starting pay at Eastwood Texaco in Birmingham is $4 an hour, more than the minimum wage but less than what the proposed increase would eventually demand. Station owner Carl Prewitt says an increase would drive up prices and jeopardize his full service operation.

CARL PREWITT, Eastwood Texaco: What I see is it's going to either run my labor costs up more, which in return is going to be reflected in the prices that I have to charge, and it's going to run prices up and I see possibly even having to cut the number of employees that I have and possibly giving less service.

MR. HOLMAN: Prewitt may have another problem. A self-service gas station soon will open nearby. Even without a higher minimum wage, Prewittwill be paying more in salaries than his new competitor. With an increased minimum wage, he says he may have trouble competing at all.

CARL PREWITT: When I look over there and I see one guy sitting in a booth and I've got four running around here, I just hope I'm doing a lot more service than what he is and being able to pay for that. We will probably lose some of our self-service business to him and that will be due to price, because I'm sure they will go in and run a low ball price, undercut my price when they first go in, because they're able to do that because they've got less pay going out.

MR. HOLMAN: The Mason Corporation in Birmingham manufactures aluminum products for home improvement, for screen doors, storm windows and patios. Mason has some 200 employees, most of them skilled and all of them working for salaries well above the minimum wage. Nevertheless, company President Frank Mason says the ripple effect caused by an increase in the minimum wage would hurt his business.

FRANK MASON, Mason Aluminum: The psychological aspect of it is that the person closest to the minimum wage is going to be expecting an increase. Well, if you were at $5 and you moved to 7, then the person that had been at 7 is going to move to 9 or 10 and it affects each level up that ladder, if you will, so that even at the higher management levels, eventually you get a pressure that is going to move these things up just by virtue of the fact that you moved the bottom run of that ladder.

MR. HOLMAN: Beyond raising the salaries of his own employees, Mason says his company would suffer because his suppliers would face higher labor costs as well.

MR. MASON: If the price, if the minimum wage level moves up across-the-board, then every company that we buy from is going to have to pay more and, therefore, their price is going to have to be increased to us, so we have to incorporate the material cost increase along with the labor cost increase in order to come up with our selling price.

MR. HOLMAN: The potential loss of thousands of low paying jobs, potential inflationary increases in salaries, and increases in consumer prices as well, those are the arguments against raising the minimum wage. Charles McDonald, President of the Alabama Retailers' Association, says increasing the minimum wage would hurt the very workers the wage was created to protect.

CHARLES McDONALD, Alabama Retailers' Association: In Alabama, the minimum wage earner is characterized by youth and inexperience. The minimum wage earner in Alabama is filling an entry level job, a job that gives them an opportunity to become a part of the world of work, to get some experience. The minimum wage earner in Alabama, if this legislation passes will become smaller and smaller. There will be fewer and fewer jobs available to these people.

KWAME HOLMAN: But not all of those who earn at or near the minimum wage level are young people just starting their working lives. Some are heads of households trying to raise families. This is the Arrow Shirt plant in Jasper, Alabama. It's the shift change. Many of these workers have earned the minimum wage for years. Arrow Shirt officials would not allow us inside their plant. We spoke to Arrow workers, most of whom are women, during their lunch break. Arrow Seamstresses Pam Miles, Marie Luna, and Janet Schmid say their wages are determined by how quickly they can work.

MARIE LUNA: On our job to make minimum wage you have to put out 59 dozen shirts a day and if you put out less than that, then they have to adjust your check to make minimum wage. If you put out more than that, then it starts to grow. I can put out an average of about 80 dozen a day and I make $4.16, and that's not easy.

JANET SCHMID: If your machine, if anything happens to your machine, you drive right back down to minimum wage. You know, you'd be making for that day minimum wage.

MARIE LUNA: I'm taking home roughly between 93 and 130 -- I had a check two weeks ago 130 -- and that's what I'm taking home every week, and feeding kids off of and it's hard, it is hard.

PAM MILES: I make as they do and I've got two kids. And they're - - we, I've got a little girl that's in high school now and it's hard to buy clothes for her and everything.

JANET SCHMID: Put it this way. You skip a bill or you buy food one week or you know or you pay another bill, you switch them around. That's the only way you can do anything.

A.G. TRAMMELL: The gap is getting wider between the rich and the poor and I think it's time that Congress should address that and I think that by increasing the minimum wage it would do something to narrow that gap.

MR. HOLMAN: Labor official A.G. Trammell heads the Alabama AFL-CIO. He says there also are positive economic results from a higher minimum wage.

A.G. TRAMMELL, Alabama, AFL-CIO: People on minimum wage spend 100 percent of the wages they receive. They spend it all. They don't buy stocks and bonds. They don't buy real estate. They spend all of their money, 100 percent of their money, for goods and services and the necessities of life. I think that would help business.

MR. HOLMAN: Labor specialist Ralph Johnson says any increase in the minimum wage would have two benefits.

RALPH JOHNSON: One is every penny is so important to some folks living on minimum wage that it does make, every additional penny makes a substantial increase in their standard of living. I think the second thing is though that these folks haven't had a raise for years and they need some hope as well as some tangible money, also a feeling that the American dream hasn't gone off and left them, that there is a possibility that their lives will improve.

MR. HOLMAN: But Johnson admits that unlike past attempts to raise the minimum wage, Congressional support for this latest increase has been unenthusiastic. Over the years, the number of minimum wage earners has dwindled and Johnson fears their ability to be heard on Capitol Hill may have dwindled as well.

MR. LEHRER: Now to a Senatorial debate over the issue between two Senators who look at the minimum wage about as differently as is possible. Sen. Paul Simon, Democrat of Illinois, supports it, and the proposal to raise it. Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Republican from New Hampshire, opposes not only the increase but the minimum wage idea altogether. Sen. Humphrey joins us from public station WNEH in Durham, New Hampshire, Sen. Simon from a studio in Chicago. Senator, do you agree with what the Professor just said to Kwame Holman, that Congress is basically unenthusiastic about the minimum wage increase this time?

SEN. PAUL SIMON: Which Senator are you addressing that to?

MR. LEHRER: I'm sorry. Senator Simon, excuse me.

SEN. PAUL SIMON [D] Illinois: Well, it depends on who you talk to. I happen to think it's very important. It may be that there are others who are for it and are unenthusiastic. We haven't raised the minimum wage since 1981, and if you were just to index that, the minimum wage would now be $4.52.

MR. LEHRER: You mean just on the cost of living?

SEN. SIMON: Just on the cost of living increase, that's correct.

MR. LEHRER: What about the general idea, Sen. Simon, why does there need to be a minimum wage at all?

SEN. SIMON: Well, there has to be a minimum wage to protect people. Many of these people are heads of households. I heard the one gentleman say it's mostly young people. 70 percent of those who get the minimum wage are over the age of 20; 62 percent of those who get the minimum wage are women. We have to protect these people and my friend, Gordon Humphrey, who doesn't want to have any minimum wage, wants to take away any protection whatsoever for these people and I that is a mistake with all due respects to my friend.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Humphrey, is that what you want to do, take away all the protection for these people?

SEN. GORDON HUMPHREY [R] New Hampshire: That is not going to happen. We are not going to eliminate the minimum wage law. But I am opposed to this latest proposal to increase the minimum wage. Now I understand the emotional arguments in favor of raising that wage but let's examine some very fundamental economic facts. First of all, what happens when you mandate a higher age? Employers raise the cost of their product to consumers and/or they lay off their least productive workers and every, Jim, every credible study over the last twenty or thirty years which has examined the effect of the federal minimum wage has concluded, including the study commissioned by Jimmy Carter in 1981, has concluded that raising the minimum wage destroys jobs for the reason I just cited.

SEN. SIMON: If I could respond to that very briefly, in 1978, we raised the minimum wage and unemployment actually went down. The Wharton study suggested the inflation factor would be .2 percent so there's a slight inflation factor, and the unemployment factor would be .1 percent. When you weigh those two things --

SEN. HUMPHREY: The fact is, Paul, the fact is that every major study including Jimmy Carter's shows as a bottom line effect that raising the minimum wage destroys jobs because employers, and they're usually small employers, simply can't afford to pay these higher wages, so they eliminate some jobs or they don't create ones that they otherwise would create.

SEN. SIMON: Let's assume that .1 percent is correct and I recognize that is an increase in unemployment, but you weigh that against these people --

SEN. HUMPHREY: That works out to about four or five hundred thousand jobs, Paul.

SEN. SIMON: No, no, no. 1 percent is about a million jobs; .1 percent is about 10,000 jobs.

SEN. HUMPHREY: The estimates vary. Jimmy Carter's study -- or let me cite that which the New York Times quoted the other day -- this proposed increase --

SEN. SIMON: I'm glad you're quoting the New York Times these days, Gordon.

SEN. HUMPHREY: They're on my side in this case. In any event, they cite the figure of 250,000 jobs being lost and these are entry level positions. These are jobs filled by teenagers or young people in school. 70 percent of those working for the minimum wage are students working part-time. You eliminate those jobs, you eliminate the stepping stone, the first rung of the ladder and these people then have a hard time ultimately finding good jobs.

SEN. SIMON: Well, the figures I'm getting are different than yours. My figures are 70 percent are over the age of 20, and I think that's a Department of Labor study.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Humphrey --

SEN. HUMPHREY: 70 percent are 24 years old or younger and are students.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Humphrey, let me ask you a question about the point that Sen. Simon made a moment ago, that the people on the minimum wage have not had a raise for seven years and that they deserve a raise, whatever the merits of the minimum wage, the folks who are on it deserve something?

SEN. HUMPHREY: Well, is it worth doing that if the cost of that increase is to destroy anywhere from two hundred to five hundred thousand jobs for our young people who won't be able to then to find jobs. Well, let me make this point that's very important and often overlooked, Jim. These aren't dead end jobs. People don't spend their lives at these jobs. Its a first job, it's a starting place, like young Mr. Humphreys there, the fellow from Alabama who was interviewed during the introduction, he just got a 15 cent page. He's already above the minimum wage, still not making much money but the point is he's on his way. He's had some work experience. He can now work his way up the economic ladder, but it's important to preserve these entry level jobs which are destroyed, many of them, by these artificial wage constraints.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Simon.

SEN. SIMON: That's true in some areas. In New Hampshire, I'm sure what Gordon says is true, because there is a very low unemployment rate in New Hampshire. But there are other areas in this nation where you have real pockets of poverty and particularly in urban areas where you have pockets of poverty where people just stay at the minimum wage. The second factor that we ought to be weighing in all of this is that we have a growing disparity between the top 20 percent of our population in income and the bottom 20 percent, and that disparity continues to increase when we don't life those at the bottom.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Humphrey.

SEN. HUMPHREY: Well, it's going to be even worse if you destroy jobs. That's the bottom line but in any event, let me concede that my colleague, Sen. Simon, has made an important point. There are fairly narrow population groups that need help, but the way to do that as the New York Times advocates, and I and others is not to broadly raise this minimum wage which has the effect of destroying jobs, but to modify the earned income tax credit so that you can target heads of households, people who have dependents under their roofs and these aren't students working part-time. These are mature adults with families. There's a way of dealing with those who are really disadvantaged by revising and making more generous the earned income tax credit rather than this shotgun approach of raising the minimum wage broadly and nationally in a way that all credible studies find has a net effect of destroying jobs.

MR. LEHRER: All right, gentlemen. Sen. Humphrey is a Republican. Sen. Simon is a Democrat. And there is a Presidential election campaign underway. How does the minimum wage play politically, is what we want to look at next with two political polling experts. Harrison Hickman is a Democratic pollster who heads a research firm based here in Washington. Bill McInturff is a senior associate at the Werthlin Group, a Republican polling organization. How does it play in the polls, Mr. Hickman?

HARRISON HICKMAN [Democratic Pollster]: Well, I think in all polls it shows overwhelming public support. We've recently done a special survey of swing voters in the South and industrial Midwest and that survey 80 percent favor increasing the minimum wage and almost 60 percent strongly support that type of measure. It's as strong among the so called Reagan Democrats as it is among people who voted for, Democrats who voted for Mondale in 1984.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. McInturff, does your data say the same thing?

BILL McINTURFF [Republican Pollster]: Our data is very similar. But we did something else. We then asked and gave people a series of issues to see what else might affect their opinion once they learn more about the issue and essentially the common sense argument had some impact. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. When you remind people about the success in the last six years in the economy, unemployment at a fourteen year low, and you talk about the impact of losing jobs, you get back about 20 or 25 percent of those people who then say okay, maybe we shouldn't increase the minimum wage, and so I think you have to kind of give people a little more information before they make up their opinion, but without question you still get a majority saying even with that information they do support increasing the minimum wage.

MR. LEHRER: What are the politics of this? Is this a big thing out there? Is there something to be reaped for the Democrats say who support raising the minimum wage?

MR. HICKMAN: Probably the benefits are as much symbolic as they are direct in terms of voting. I mean, I think it's the kind of issue like the plant closing bill which in our survey is very highly correlated. People who support the plant closing notification law also support increasing the minimum wage.

MR. LEHRER: Why is that? Why do you think the similarities are there?

MR. HICKMAN: Well, it is in terms of symbolism you have, it fits the stereotypes of what people think about the parties. I mean, it is an opportunity for people to see Republicans siding with management, Democrats siding with workers. It's the chance to see Democrats being compassionate, seeking fairness, Republicans being more concerned about the bottom line for the entire economy.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree with that?

MR. McINTURFF: Well, there is some cautionary note there. We also tested an argument saying if we raised the minimum wage, inflation might increase, and that had some salience with people over 65. And I think one reason that the Democrats might be a little cautious about campaigning full-time and increasing minimum wage is because the Democrats, again, one of the things they have to deal with is are they economically credible, and the concern about inflation that's beginning to bubble up in our surveys is something I think the Democrats would want to be a little sensitive about.

MR. LEHRER: But do you believe in the public mind it is seen as a Democratic issue, being in favor of raising the minimum wage, and the Republicans being opposed to it, as just we saw with the two Senators?

MR. McINTURFF: I think if you ask people which party is more likely to raise the minimum wage, yes, they'd say the Democrats because they perceive the Democrats as being the party that still supports higher federal spending. For the Republicans, I would counsel Republicans to talk about this and frame this as a jobs issue and to defend and talk about what we've done in terms of creating jobs and what we're going to do to save jobs and in terms of the Republican response on this issue, I think based on the survey data that's what I would be recommending my clients talk about.

MR. LEHRER: You mean the basic argument that we just heard Sen. Humphrey make that this would cut the number of jobs and that's the reason not to be in favor of the minimum wage?

MR. McINTURFF: Well, as a pollster, I would talk first about success. I would recommend to my clients they talk about 17 million new jobs, 14 year unemployment low, and the lowest rates of teenage unemployment since 1972 since they've been measured, including the lowest rates of black unemployment in the teenage years. Now they're still too high but that's still dramatic progress, so I would tell my clients to start first with the success stories about the last six years of the economy in job growth and then, yes, talk about the concern about losing jobs.

MR. LEHRER: Do either one of you all have data that sorts out why an overwhelming majority of the people support the minimum wage? Is it because they don't think it's fair for people to work and not make any more money than that, or is it an economic thing or can you sort it out?

MR. HICKMAN: Well, it runs in a couple of ways. In one sense, it is the argument that people at the lowest level in society deserve protection.

MR. LEHRER: What Sen. Simon said.

MR. HICKMAN: Yes. It is clearly an element of a positive role for government. If government is going to do anything, it should protect these people who can't protect themselves against much bigger entities. The second thing is there is now this perception of a big disparity between the very rich and between the working poor and people see government as having a role in pulling those, in pulling the rich and the poor a little bit closer together.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree with that, Mr. McInturff?

MR. McINTURFF: I think in our surveys the single most potent argument for raising the minimum wage is simply that it has not been increased since 1981, and I think that strikes people as a fairness issue, and so I think that issue more than some of the others Harrison might have mentioned is the single toughest obstacle to kind of get across to folks in terms of why would you not want to raise it.

MR. LEHRER: Is this what you call a break through issue with many voters? Is this something that might cause people to vote or not vote a certain way?

MR. McINTURFF: I'm interested in Harrison's opinion. In our data, I can't imagine a post election survey that would show a Republican or Democrat who voted against the minimum wage losing a seat on that issue. I'd be very surprised.

MR. HICKMAN: That's why I was speaking of it more in terms of symbolism. I mean I think it fits into the arguments that the two parties make and helps people confirm existing stereotype much more than it might lead to a direct vote one way or the other.

MR. LEHRER: But the party people themselves would have to make the case in other words?

MR. HICKMAN: Well, it's not something if you ask people what's the most important thing government could do today for you, it's just like during the plant closing debate there were not many people who volunteered it, but once you bring it up, people fall pretty clearly on the side of raising the minimum wage.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Simon, how do you read the politics of this as a Democrat?

SEN. PAUL SIMON [D] Illinois: I don't think it is a big political issue. I think it is one where we have to look at the equities of the thing and these are people who need to be protected, but in terms of it being a significant issue in the Presidential race or in a Senatorial or House race, I don't see it cutting that void much.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Humphrey, does it surprise you to learn that both of these gentlemen say that the overwhelming majority of the people are in favor of raising the minimum wage?

SEN. GORDON HUMPHREY [R] New Hampshire: Not at all, Jim, no one would be surprised, because on the surface the argument is very appealing. The American people are a compassionate people, but look, it's neither compassionate nor enlightened, nor protective to destroy jobs and as I've said and will say again, every credible study over the last 20 years, including Jimmy Carter's, has found that the net effect of artificially mandating these higher wages is a net destruction in these entry level jobs. Now how is it protective or enlightened or compassionate to destroy entry level jobs? It doesn't make any sense so I'm trying to argue the logical case, but I understand the emotional argument. Beware of politicians who appeal to your emotions. I mean, that's the basis of demagoguery. I'm not pointing any fingers but look you might ask the question why is this bill coming up just before an election? It is no coincidence.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Simon, why is this bill coming up just before an election?

SEN. SIMON: I suppose any time you schedule things, if you schedule it before an election, people are going to say, this is a political issue. The reality is this thing has been moving through committee kind of slowly and it is coming up now but I think Gordon would agree with me. I don't think it's a big election issue, but what I would say in response to Gordon is the most significant study is when we passed the minimum wage in 1978. Unemployment actually went down rather than up.

MR. LEHRER: As far as the first question I asked you about, about the lack of enthusiasm or whatever, Sen. Simon, do you believe this thing is going to pass the House and Senate before the election?

SEN. SIMON: I think it is going to pass the Senate and I assume it will pass the House too.

MR. LEHRER: And that means it will go to the President and there's been some indication, Sen. Humphrey, that he might veto it, is that right?

SEN. HUMPHREY: That's my understanding, yes.

MR. LEHRER: Then what do we have, pollsters, if this goes through the Congress and the President vetoes it, what does that do to Vice President, Mr. McInturff, if anything?

MR. McINTURFF: Well, thank goodness we don't legislate based on public opinion and what I would say --

MR. LEHRER: I beg your pardon.

MR. HICKMAN: Speak for yourself.

MR. McINTURFF: The reason we stay in business year to year is public opinion fluctuates and it would not help us but what I'm saying there are strong enough arguments, you could bring it back closer to net zero and I would tell my clients to vote what they think is in the best interest of this country and I think we could defend it.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Hickman, is it a delicious thing for a Democrat if the House and the Senate passes it, it goes to the President, the President vetoes it, is that another little thing in the arsenal of the Democrats?

MR. HICKMAN: Yes. I think it's a very easy thing to explain to people that while people in Kennybunkport, Maine, may not need an increase in the minimum wage, people in Anistan, Alabama do.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. McInturff, will that sell?

MR. McINTURFF: I think they could try to sell it but I still think the Republican message about 17 million new jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in 14 years is a good deal more powerful than this one or two micro issues in minimum wage, and I think that's what's most important.

MR. LEHRER: Gentlemen, I think we could go on a while and not resolve this, but thank you all very much for helping us at least understand it a little bit more. Mr. Hickman, Mr. McInturff, Senators Simon and Humphrey, thank you all for being with us. FOCUS - BURNING ISSUES

MR. MacNeil: Finally tonight the fires in Yellowstone National Park. As we reported, residents of two small towns were evacuated today because of the menacing fires. Some nearby townspeople are angry about the park's fire fighting strategy, but others in the Yellowstone community, the scientists, are delighted. Correspondent Tom Bearden reports.

TOM BEARDEN: The plumes of smoke from the Yellowstone fire sometimes tower over nearby towns to 20,000 feet and higher. The people who live in communities like Gardiner, Montana, have become more upset as the summer progressed. They only want one thing, the fires put out as quickly as possible. [FIRE CHIEF MEETING WITH TOWN RESIDENTS]

MR. BEARDEN: Truck Superintendent Bob Barbee has met repeatedly with residents to assure them that everything possible is being done within park guidelines but park policy calls for fighting only man caused fires. Those which start naturally by lightning are allowed to burn under natural conditions except when they threaten towns and man made structures. Superintendent Barbee says he knows the nearby residents are worried.

BOB BARBEE, Superintendent, Yellowstone Park: They're angry, they're scared. They've never remotely experienced anything like this before. We're told by people who study fire history that there haven't been fires like this in this area since the mid 1700s.

MR. BEARDEN: The conditions inside Yellowstone National Park are perfect this year, perfect for wild fires. After seven years of drought, the timber is bone dry. The winds have been strong and steady, temperatures hot. Fires that started in June are still burning, blackening thousands of acres each day. The scale of all this is difficult to grasp. By comparison, the biggest fires in recent Yellowstone history were in 1980, when 8,000 acres burned. This year, a half million acres have been consumed. The fires have kept tourists away. There's been a 30 percent decline in visitors in August alone. Wildlife in some places is barely visible through the dense smoke. The same is true for the Old Faithful Geyser. Some of the tourists who made the trip think more should have been done to stop the fires. Ron Webster drove here from Connecticut.

RON WEBSTER, Tourist: It's hard for them to predict it, but I think that probably would have been the better way to go if they had, you know, taken more initiative to begin with, but unfortunately, it's already a little bit too late.

MR. BEARDEN: Bill Brown is from Colorado.

BILL BROWN, Tourist: I come up here to see something and all I see is smoke. That's it.

MR. BEARDEN: But because such vast fires are so rare, not everybody is viewing this year's burn as a disaster. In many ways, the effect of the fire on Yellowstone Park will depend on what happens to the forest, itself. Yellowstone's Chief Researcher, John Barley, showed us a stand of trees that burned in mid July.

JOHN BARLEY: It's even remarkable to me that this is occurring because in the six weeks since this burned over, we've had absolutely no rain and yet we see the first forest plants returning here. They're four to six inches high, green and lush, and we fully expect that within oh three to five years, there will be 100 percent plant cover through this blackened area.

MR. BEARDEN: The forest cycles have been studied for decades by botanists, but the Yellowstone fires are giving scientists a chance to study the rebirth of a forest under pristine condition. Don Despain, a Research Biologist on the Yellowstone staff led a team two miles into the park's back country last week. They were looking for a section of forest near the advancing fire line to study. The team needed at least a two hour head start on the flames so they could finish an inventory of the tract before it went up in smoke. The goal is to make a precise measurement of the terrain before the fire so they will be able to chart its recovery. By knowing what is consumed in the fire, they know what kinds of plants and trees survive and what kinds don't. [TEAM SURVEYING AREA]

MR. BEARDEN: First they measured and roped off a rectangular plot. A careful list was made of the various plant species. The tree seedlings and saplings were counted and all the fully grown trees were measured. The team also took samples of the deadwood fuels on the forest floor. After two hours of sometimes tedious work, the group sat down for lunch.

DON DESPAIN, Researcher: Over the next several years, hopefully this will burn, we will come back to this place and do the same measurements. Of course, hopefully the trees will all be dead and the tree reproduction will be dead. There just haven't been opportunities to go in before a crown type fire and put the plot in and see how the plant community changes.

MR. BEARDEN: The studies begin with the forest floor, but the botanists know that even simple changes, such as burning off of the overhead forest canopies can trigger a series of events that affect wildlife.

JOHN VARLEY, Chief Researcher: It's all intertwined; it's all bound together. There are fascinating stories about the soils and what's going on with these fires with soils because the plants are dependent on soils but then all of the animals and insects are dependent upon the plants and you just sort of go up this food pyramid and it's all intertwined.

MR. BEARDEN: Steve French is an independent grisly bear researcher who has made 1500 sightings of the animal since 1983. There are no precise counts of the grisly population in the park, but it's estimated at around 200. For French, the fire has offered an opportunity to watch the behavior of the bears in and around the fires. On this day, French was checking a popular bear habitat on the southern edge of Yellowstone's Hayden Valley. [French describing spotting of bear]

MR. BEARDEN: Our camera could just barely make out the distant animal as it moved off the carcass, but French said the sighting reconfirmed his belief that the bears so far have demonstrated an ability to adapt and survive. The grisly's powerful sense of smell, for instance, doesn't seem to be hampered by the dense smoke. But the studies are just beginning.

STEVE FRENCH, Researcher: My impression is the bears are basically indifferent to the fire, the grisly bears, and it will be interesting to see how they make the adjustments to the changing vegetation. A significant portion of that already burned has been some fairly sterile in terms of wildlife country. It's overgrown, mature, doesn't have much under store and doesn't really support a lot of wildlife, so, therefore, not all of those acres you talk about involve really quality habitat.

MR. BEARDEN: Superintendent Barbee concedes the park will look very different next year, but he said that isn't necessarily bad for the park itself.

MR. BARBEE: You know, there's 25 years at least, 25, 30, 40 years of slow evolution of an understanding of the role of fire and it's not some sort of a simplistic bambie kind of a thing. This isn't the bambie school of simple science that we're dealing with here. Academia is involved. The scientists from the agencies are involved and it's thoughtful, and we have to move ahead with it. We just can't say, oh, we're going to put every single fire out in the future.

MR. BEARDEN: Some tourists are enjoying the park right now even in the midst of the fire. Grant Schwartenzturber drove his family here from British Columbia. He found no need to build a fire to roast marshmallows. He says Yellowstone is a natural wonder in any condition.

GRANT SCHWARTZENTURBER, Tourist: If you look at the trees, you can see that there's been fire before, because all of the lower branches are burned in previous fires. I mean, I just find that fascinating to see how the forest can rejuvenate itself.

MR. BEARDEN: While the Schwartzenturbers enjoy their adventure, scientists will learn a great deal about the natural cycle of wild fire in forests. The Park Service's strategy towards such huge fires will have been subjected to its most severe test ever and the debate over how to best manage and protect the world's first national park will continue. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Once again the main stories of the day, in Labor Day speeches, George Bush likened Michael Dukakis's ideas on defense to Jane Fonda's, Michael Dukakis said electing George Bush would mean four more years of the rich getting richer. Forest fires in Yellowstone National Park forced residents of two small Montana towns to abandon their homes, and late today, the government announced a $2 billion bailout of the largest insolvent savings institution in the country, the American Savings & Loan Association of Stockton, California. That's the Newshour tonight. We'll be back tomorrow night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.