The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. I'm Robert MacNeil in New York.

MR. LEHRER: And I'm Jim Lehrer in Washington. After our summary of the news this Tuesday, we update the struggle in South Florida to recover from Hurricane Andrew. And special envoy Cyrus Vance and Senators Mitchell and Rudman talk about ways to stop the bloodshed in Bosnia-Herzegovina. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: President Bush announced today that the federal government would pay a full 100 percent of eligible disaster relief in Florida, instead of the traditional 75 percent. He made the announcement after he and Mrs. Bush inspected the damage in Homestead and visited a newly constructed tent city. He also said the government would rebuild Homestead Air Force Base, ending speculation that it would be permanently shut down. Mr. Bush said the federal aid should help ease the state's financial burden.

PRESIDENT BUSH: This authorization is the maximum that we can do and I'm very proud that we're doing this. Temporary housing and mortgage assistance, crisis counseling, disaster unemployment assistance will continue to be 100 percent federally funded where permitted under the law, and although some cost sharing is involved, the federal assistance that I authorized today represents an extraordinary and very appropriate response to this human tragedy.

MR. MacNeil: The number of soldiers on the ground in South Florida rose to 20,000, with the army's top generals saying another 5,000 may be needed. Military planes continued to spray insecticide to kill swarms of mosquitoes that spread disease. In Louisiana, children in La Place went back to school today. That community was devastated by a tornado that was spawned by Hurricane Andrew. President Bush went to Louisiana this afternoon where he met with a farmer who lost his sugar cane crop. He also visited a shelter stocked with donated goods. We'll have more on the hurricane aftermath right after the News Summary. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Bill Clinton plans to visit Florida Thursday for a personal look at the damage. He was invited by Florida's Democratic Governor Lawton Chiles. Today Clinton was in Georgia and North Carolina talking about Medicare. He said President Bush's budget proposals would lead to higher cost for Medicare coverage. He spoke at a senior citizens center in Macon, Georgia.

BILL CLINTON: -- hits hardest at the older Americans who worked their way out of the Great Depression, saved the world from Nazism and Fascism, and gave my generation opportunities they never dreamed of. Of the $294 billion in budget cuts over the next five years, Mr. Bush proposes more than 127 billion come from Medicare.

MR. LEHRER: Bush campaign deputy chairman Clayton Yeutter responded. He told CNN there was nothing in the President's budget proposals to trim back on Medicare. He said the budget only cuts back increases in Medicare. Campaign spokeswoman Torre Clark said Clinton's own health insurance proposals would "absolutely pummel the little guy."

MR. MacNeil: In economic news today, the government's main forecasting gauge rose .1 percent in July. The index of leading indicators is used to predict economic activity for six to nine months in advance. The July gain followed a .3 percent decline in June. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said construction spending fell .6 percent in July. It was the second drop in a row and the steepest since December.

MR. LEHRER: A new United Nations nuclear weapons team began inspections today in Iraq. The 21-member group is the first to visit Baghdad since the United States and its allied imposed a no- fly zone over Southern Iraq last week. The team's leader said Iraqi officials were cooperative during today's field inspections.

MR. MacNeil: There was renewed fighting overnight in and around the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo. At least 20 people were reported killed and 218 others wounded over the last 24 hours. Serb and Muslim forces exchanged mortar fire near the airport where U.N. troops are stationed. There was also shelling of suburbs South of the capital. Nearly 9,000 people have been killed since Bosnia declared its independence from Yugoslavia in April. We will have more on the story later in the program.

MR. LEHRER: The Chinese government today arrested the first pro- democracy dissident to return since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protest. Former Beijing University student Ching Kang returned to China in early August after having spent three years in exile in the United States. He was arrested hours before announcing the formation of a new human rights group in Beijing. Police also arrested two local protest leaders and temporarily detained an American adviser to Chang. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to Hurricane Andrew's week in Florida, and the search for peace in Yugoslavia. UPDATE - REBUILDING LIVES

MR. LEHRER: Hurricane Andrew is long gone, but it will be a long time before it is forgotten, most particularly in South Florida. We again update the struggle to bring relief to its thousands of homeless victims, beginning with this report by Tom Bearden from Florida City, just South of Homestead.

MR. BEARDEN: A trailer park in Florida City. Lorrie Maclaine searching for a piece of paper to prove that she once lived in this mobile home. Her uncle, Sol Schleicher, is outraged.

SOL SCHLEICHER: They need some sort of paper work. They have no paper work. She's lost all her paper work and she has to prove that she's living -- living there before they'll give her assistance. Even though she's got papers that -- she can show them papers -- they won't do anything for her until she shows that. And it is the most frustrating thing in the world.

MR. BEARDEN: Schleicher and Maclaine aren't the only ones frustrated. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, now has disaster assistance centers set up in the devastated area. They're taking applications for the long list of federal assistance programs available to survivors. Ruth Stergaard says they're doing a pretty good job, but wonders why they weren't here sooner.

RUTH STERGAARD: I'll tell you what, the first morning of the hurricane -- because I lived a mile up the road, I stayed in a motel to evacuate right across the highway -- the three or four days that we were sitting on bare steps in a pile of rubble where we lived, we would have gone hungry, thirsty, and died, because there was no one any place to help.

SPOKESMAN: [on phone] Now, they're open from 8 AM to 8 PM.

MR. BEARDEN: Thousands of people are calling FEMA's big operation center at the Miami Airport trying to find out where the other assistance centers are located. FEMA's job is to coordinate the massive relief effort that's been building up over the past week. The center brings representatives of the army, navy, air force, and state and local agencies together in one place to try to keep the red tape to a minimum. Thousands of tons of goods are coming in by air, land, and sea. The port of Miami is offloading plywood from navy ships. At the Opalocka Airport, Air Force C-5 shuttle in and out, filling warehouses with supplies which are later transported by helicopters. In Florida City, stockpiles are growing, sometimes too fast to be effectively distributed. There's a big pile of burning garbage on what used to be the 30-yard line of a football field in a Florida state park. Some of the trash is donated clothing that had been ruined by weekend rains. Just across the way, a church-sponsored mobile kitchen is serving hundreds of people each day, as are several army field kitchens. But it isn't a very appetizing place to eat. That big garbage pile is beginning to stink. It's also attracting rats and health authorities are worried about disease. The standing water left behind by the hurricane has produced a record crop of mosquitoes. Add all of that together and one begins to get some sense of the misery of tens of thousands of people still living in their cars or in structures without roofs. And trying to work in all the wreckage is dangerous. This man apparently touched a 480-volt power line while working on the roof of a damaged building. He was evacuated by a military helicopter to a Miami hospital. The aftermath is particularly tough on the infirm. Dr. Richard Bymaster has treated a lot of people like Vera Foster. She was running out of her prescription medication. Volunteer nurse Victoria Parkins says they're low on vaccinations and she's worried about more people getting sick.

VICTORIA PARKINS, Nurse: Well, if -- if people start getting sick, a lot of people could start getting sick, you know. So we're just, we're waiting for supplies to come today and they're doin', I think they're doin' an outstanding job here.

MR. BEARDEN: While the Corps of Engineers uses heavy equipment to clear the road to a school so classes can resume next week, building inspectors have been fanning out across the shattered communities. Their job is to decide which buildings are beyond repair and to direct anybody living in them to tent cities like this one being set up by the marines. The problem is, it isn't ready yet, and may not be until tomorrow or even the day after. The final uncertainty for these devastated people is that many have no idea what to do next, or how long they may be living in a government tent.

MR. LEHRER: Now, to three people intimately involved in the day- to-day work of relief and rebuilding. Kate Hale is the hurricane coordinator for hard hit Dade County. Ms. Hale's complained about the speed of the federal government's response caught the nation's attention last Thursday. She is in Kindel, Florida, ten miles South of Miami. Lawton Chiles is the governor of Florida. Donald Jones is the general manager of disaster services for the American Red Cross. They join us from public station WLRN in Miami. First, to you, Gov. Chiles, I assume you are pleased with this decision by President Bush today to go 100 percent for the federal share of paying for your cleaning up, is that correct?

GOV. CHILES: Very much so, and also the decision on Homestead Air Force Base, because everyone down there was terribly, terribly worried Homestead would be shut. It provides at least a third of the economy. It also provides the PX and the medical facilities for thousands of retirees in South Florida from the military who might even pick up and move if they couldn't get that treatment. So those two decisions took a lot off of our back right now and allow us to go forward with the reconstruction efforts.

MR. LEHRER: Governor, the normal split is 75/25, 75 federal, 25 state. Why was the exception justified in your case this time?

GOV. CHILES: Well, because this is the largest natural disaster that's ever struck any state, and Florida, and no other state that I know of in the nation could have ponied up the 25 percent. But, Jim, this is also the same split that was given to South Carolina after Hurricane Hugo. So it is not that much of an exception.

MR. LEHRER: In general terms --

GOV. CHILES: But we're delighted that we got this split.

MR. LEHRER: Sure, sure. In general terms, Governor, what is it that the federal government's going to pay for?

GOV. CHILES: Well, the federal government is going to pay for all of the cleanup, all of the removal, the debris. And that's very, very heavy expense, which local government and others are going to be put to, and is now in the other relief that we give to individuals, that we try to bill, there will be a small state cost sharing, but much smaller -- I think in the neighborhood of around 34, 33 million dollars -- that's not a small item at the state of Florida right now, but compared to what we are facing, it certainly is 10 times better.

MR. LEHRER: You were on the program the other day, and you told Robin it was impossible to really put any kind of good figure on what this is going to cost, but you can help us in any way now as to what just cleaning the place up, and getting it back to normal is going to cost?

GOV. CHILES: I really don't have a figure on that. People are using a figure of $20 billion, but that is a ballpark figure. I'm not sure that anybody today can tell you the Red Cross is making assessments. The building commissioners of all of the local jurisdictions are making assessments, but at this stage I don't think our numbers are that good. It's a major -- it's in the billions and billions of dollars.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Ms. Hale -- I want to go to her -- we're having audio problems from Kendal, Florida, where she is, but she made headlines last week, Governor, when she said that the federal government had been slow in responding to this. What is your assessment of what the response has been as we speak now?

GOV. CHILES: As we speak now, I think the response is very good and getting better every day. As the troops have arrived, as the equipment is arriving, now the material is arriving. We do have, are getting much better communications, much more delivery. We're sorting out -- we're not having quite as many sort of volunteers who come down on their own without coordinating with anyone. I think it's -- every day I see great improvement.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Jones, let me bring you into this. What -- as we speak tonight -- what are the major needs that still exist?

MR. JONES: Well, we're continuing to provide a lot of assistance for food and shelter, even though our shelter population has declined, but we're still feeding over a hundred thousand people a day. We have about 75 emergency response vehicles that go out and do mobile feeding, and then we have the Southern Baptists here who helped hand pick feeding sites, who are feeding six to ten thousand people at various locations.

MR. LEHRER: I wasn't thinking just of the American -- what the Red Cross is doing. I was thinking of the total -- we'll get into that in a moment -- but just what the total needs are for the people of South Florida as a result of this hurricane. What still needs to be done?

MR. JONES: Well, I think -- I was in Homestead this afternoon and one thing that I thought was very heart warming, the initial visit I made down there, they were in shock and they were worried about survival, food, clothing and shelter, where the next meal was going to come from. I saw a totally different attitude this afternoon. The people were saying, we have food, clothing, and shelter, and now help us get the materials and supplies to get our homes back in order. So I believe they are wanting building supplies, things of that nature, so they can be self-sufficient. We'll continue to provide distribution of food from various organizations in conjunction with the state and the local governments and all the other volunteer organizations. So we will, I think -- starting to get their homes back in order, make the repairs on the buildings that can be occupied, with maybe fixing a hole in the roof, replacing windows, but it really was gratifying to see the attitude of the people. City officials that I talked to today down there, the leaders of Homestead, were just ecstatic about the attitude and the direction we were going.

MR. LEHRER: Kate Hale, I understand you can hear me now, right?

MS. HALE: Yes, I can.

MR. LEHRER: What I said to the governor just a moment ago, I don't know if you heard me, I mean, you made some big headlines last week when you criticized the nature of the response and the speed of the response to the tragedy there in your area. What is your assessment of what it's been as of now?

MS. HALE: As of now, things are in very good condition to begin the response into the communities. We've got about 20,000 troops on the ground, five navy ships unloading at the port and a mass operation for feeding in place.

MR. LEHRER: Is it your -- either based on real -- or real information that everybody who needs food is getting it at this point -- at this point in time?

MS. HALE: Yes. We believe that sufficient nutriments are getting out to people. The -- certain areas are still being served by drop and people are having to take all terrain vehicles out into the East Everglades, but we are definitely getting supplies out.

MR. LEHRER: Now, what about the shelter situation at this point, what would you -- what did you say about that?

MS. HALE: Well, the shelter situation is right now a function of the Red Cross and the tent cities that are being put together by the military.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Jones, the tent cities, much has been made about the tent cities that the marines and others are constructing, what's the plan there? How long are people -- are they designed to house people?

MR. JONES: Well, I just came from one of the tent cities down there and it will be ready for occupancy tonight. We help people who are registering, anyone that wants to stay there tonight, to be provided bedding and clothing. One of the things that I think is the greatest concern in the recovery phase is temporary housing. There's just none that I can see available. So I think the tent cities will be there for a significant length of time. As long as there are people who want to live in 'em, I believewe will need to keep those tent cities open and allow that to happen.

MR. LEHRER: Well, let me -- you have a military background. Let's explain to people who may not have one what it's like to live in a tent city. I mean, you've got a big tent and you have no privacy, you're living on a cot, and then you have, what, portalets for restroom facilities, and you get in line for food, is that right?

MR. JONES: We have very good kitchens that will expedite food. We have shower facilities. We have -- the privacy probably is the greatest concern that you have. What we're going to try to do, we will make tents -- we have sufficient numbers -- available for families, if we can afford to have it based on space. We'll also make tents available for male or female billeting. So we're going to try to accommodate the needs of each individual as best we can.

MR. LEHRER: Can you give me any kind of ball park figure as to how many people are going to have to live in these tents and for how long?

MR. JONES: I don't think there's any way of telling that. What we have been doing in our shelters -- we still have a number of shelters open -- the population has dropped almost every night and the people will come over, eat the meals, and then return to their quarters, regardless of the condition.

MR. LEHRER: When you say shelters, you mean like in gymnasiums, large buildings like that?

MR. JONES: Schools, things of that nature, that we provide shelter and food, and --

GOV. CHILES: I think one of the --

MR. LEHRER: Yes, Governor.

GOV. CHILES: One of the problems here a lot of these people right now won't come to the tents. They want to stay in their existing territory, whether there's only two walls up or three and no roof. We're trying to convince the people temporarily to come where the showers are, where the medical facilities are, where the feeding stations are. They're very, very territorial and they're just putting the tar paper over or something. So I don't think, again, as far as people staying for long periods of time, we're looking for all of the housing stock that's available in Miami and in other places actually to try to see how we can get a number of these people out into foreclosed homes and other places. And tent cities is, you know, these are small tent complexes, fifteen or twenty tents, in about three locations. We'll first have to see whether people come to those at all, but I think as Don Jones said, we need the building materials right now, because so many of these people want to just fix something temporarily where they can stay in. And we're going through stages. Stage one is almost complete. That's to feed, give the temporary medical help, and the water to people. Phase 2 -- and some kind of shelter -- Phase 2 is the cleanup, getting everything cleared and the debris, and getting the infrastructure working. We've got -- right now, we've got to get the power on so some of the small businesses can start, so the farmers can start back, so that schools can open. We need the telephone service. Then that third phase -- and we're sure not there yet -- we're beginning to work on the second phase -- is the rebuilding phase.

MR. LEHRER: Ms. Hale, what's your assessment of the health problem? The nurse told Tom Bearden in our introductory report that she was concerned that -- about communicable diseases, if somebody gets something, then everybody gets it. What's your reading of that situation and what the danger may be?

MS. HALE: That's certainly a situation we're very concerned about, because of dead animals, garbage piles up and other problems. We are very, very concerned about the public health situation, and if people are in a weakened condition, they'll be more vulnerable. So the public health facilities and epidemiologists are in place to monitor the situation and to do what's necessary to protect the public's health.

MR. LEHRER: Are hospitals and doctors and other health professionals available in the amount and numbers that you think are required, Ms. Hale?

MS. HALE: They seem to be in place. I was talking with one of the mass units this morning. They had 900 emergency cases in that one mass unit yesterday. So the large numbers of people seeking emergency medical treatment down there is still very, very high.

MR. LEHRER: Are these emergencies based on something that happened during the hurricane, or the normal course of human events kinds of emergencies?

MS. HALE: Some of them are the normal course of human events, but many of them are post hurricane-related injuries relating to falling off roofs, electrical shocks, people stepping on nails, glass injuries, chain saw accidents, things of that nature.

MR. LEHRER: What about the communications problems, are you convinced now that somebody is -- needs something, that somebody out there with a problem that he or she has a way to get that need known to somebody who can do some help?

MS. HALE: We certainly hope so. At this point, pushing out into all the neighborhoods and establishing contact is a phase we're just beginning to feel comfortable that we're well underway.

MR. LEHRER: How do you feel, Ms. Hale, about the housing thing that I was talking to Mr. Jones and the governor about, about how long people may have to live in the tent cities and then what the governor calls Phase Three, where you finally get back into a real life of some kind?

MS. HALE: For many of these people the tents are going to be the only alternative for a very long time. There's not a lot of available housing stock in the county. There's certainly nothing available in the South Dade County area. So if they want to stay in their neighborhoods, in that area, tent cities are going to be about the only alternative.

MR. LEHRER: What are you doing about the folks that the governor mentioned who just don't want to leave their homes, even though they may not be safe, even though they may not even be adequate? Do you have a way to get them out of there, or what are you doing about that?

MS. HALE: Well, certain structures, of course, are going to have to be condemned and demolished. Other structures may be capable of being rehabilitated once the materials and the labor are here. But at least in the interim, we want people to be able to make temporary repairs and have an alternative to staying in a structure that's unsafe.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Jones, you in your earlier life were in the professional -- you were a professional military man, also worked in disasters, and you've done many of them as head of this whole disaster services for the American Red Cross. Can you give us a feel, based on your experience, of how this compares with what you've seen before?

MR. JONES: Well, I would tell you this is the most devastating event that I have ever observed. I think there's some unique situations involved in this one. The fact that it has happened in a large metropolitan city, scattered over a large area, many of those personnel in this area, a low economic income, so I think from my experience and the disasters that I have watched and read about and participated in, I think this one is unique. We have conducted over 95,000damage assessments and as Ms. Hale mentioned, lots of destruction, but there are also, we think, out of those ninety some thousand possibly about forty thousand homes that with minor repairs, that we could close holes in some of the roofs, maybe put some windows back in, and they'd be ready for occupancy. So I think that's going to be one of the keys to success is concentrate our efforts on those that need minor damage first and getting the people out of the tents, out of the other shelters, and back into their homes, and then, as Gov. Chiles mentioned, those that are going to take long-term repair or destruction are going to take a long time.

MR. LEHRER: Gov. Chiles, are there still people missing and unaccounted for?

GOV. CHILES: Yes. There are people missing, but an awful lot of people evacuated during the storm and some have come back and just looked at what was their trailer or their house and left again. People fail to remember now, but 750,000 people were evacuated, the largest evacuation that we've ever had. And that is the reason that we had such a small loss of life. All of that went well. The problems came after that. But --

MR. LEHRER: You don't believe -- excuse me -- you don't believe based on the evidence thus far at least that there may be still some victims underneath some rubble somewhere that haven't been found?

GOV. CHILES: That could happen, but because there are areas that, you know, are still kind of piled up, but we have gone on search and rescue missions. We have had dogs out there and I think that that's kind of a remote possibility now.

MR. LEHRER: Ms. Hale, do you agree with that? There are a lot of people from around the country who've had trouble finding their relatives and all of that. Any of those who might be listening, do you have any words for them?

MS. HALE: I agree with the governor. I think most of the victims have been found, and although there's a possibility we may find another individual or two, I believe that sufficient searches have been conducted to identify anybody who may have been a victim of the storm.

MR. LEHRER: Ms. Hale, let me ask you this finally. Is anything you've learned from this experience that will make the next time, if there is a next time, God forbid, either for you or for somebody else, that could make it go better, is there any overriding thing that -- any overriding lesson?

MS. HALE: I think the overriding lesson is one to the public that previously had little hurricane experience, and to the federal, state and local governments about the need for recovery planning.

MR. LEHRER: Recovery planning, you mean already before -- just in anticipation of something like this, before it actually happens, you mean, have it all ready to go?

MS. HALE: That's correct. Dade County had a recovery plan and we found that it served us very well in guiding our response, but we certainly think that it would serve the state and federal government well to have something similar in place.

MR. LEHRER: Governor, what's -- what would be the main lesson you'd carry away from this experience?

GOV. CHILES: Well, I think that we've been so tied up with trying to deal with the crisis now that I don't think we've had the time to really reflect. But we do know this. We re-wrote the book after Hurricane Hugo and changed all the disaster plans. Thank goodness we changed ours in Florida, because without that, we would have not have made the evacuations that we made and saved lives. In the aftermath of this, Jim, we will rewrite the book again and I'm sure that I'm going to have a couple of chapters to put in that book. But now is really not the time to deal with those. We've got to do too many things together to get this thing behind us.

MR. LEHRER: Well, governor, I appreciate that. And Governor, Ms. Hale, and Mr. Jones, thank you all three for being with us.

MS. HALE: Thank you. FOCUS - SEARCH FOR PEACE

MR. MacNeil: We turn now to the tragedy in what used to be Yugoslavia. A peace conference in London last week produced an agreement to end the war, but has not produced an end to the fighting, which continues unabated in the republic of Bosnia and its capital, Sarajevo. We begin our focus with the recommendations of a group of U.S. Senators, who've just returned from a trip to Central Europe, including the republic of Croatia. They met the leaders of Bosnia, Serbia, and Croatia, and visited a refugee camp and heavily damaged Croatian villages. Today the Senators sent a letter to acting Secretary of State Eagleburger calling for tougher action against Serbia. Heading the delegation was Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell and Senator Warren Rudman, Republican of New Hampshire. I spoke with them late this afternoon. Sen. Mitchell, Sen. Rudman, thank you for joining us. Sen. Mitchell, your letter to Mr. Eagleburger says the Yugoslav crisis deserves the full attention of the United States. Does that mean you don't think it's had the full attention of the administration?

SEN. MITCHELL: There's been a hesitancy on the part of all Western governments to act in this crisis primarily because the choices have been seen as between doing little, other than rhetoric, and full scale and large military intervention. We think that there is something we can do short of full scale, large military intervention that represents more than what's been done. And we detailed those steps in the letter. We have no criticism of Sec. Eagleburger. In fact, as we've pointed out in the letter, we supported the views that he expressed about ten days ago and reiterated those views to all of the foreign leaders with whom we met.

MR. MacNeil: Sen. Rudman, one of your principal recommendations is to sever diplomatic relations with Serbia and Montenegro. What would that achieve, in your view?

SEN. RUDMAN: We believe that it would bring even more pressure on the government in Belgrade. Unquestionably, the sanctions are working, but of course we want them to work in a more effective way, but if the United States of America breaks diplomatic relations with Belgrade, we believe that that well may weaken their government and certainly will get the attention of our Western allies, who frankly, they are European, and I think they probably should have done more than they've done up to now. We believe that what we saw was so outrageous and the things we saw were so disturbing to all of us that the United States ought to break relations and tell the Belgrade government that this is not conduct which this country will accept. We think it is the ultimate diplomatic message that this country can send and we ought to send it.

MR. MacNeil: Now, the Belgrade government includes Milan Panic, the American who's recently become the prime minister of what's left of Yugoslavia. There are a lot of reports today that the Serbian leader, Mr. Milosevic, is trying to force Panic out and yet, Panic is the man who was the most forthcoming at the London talks last week. Now, if you cut off relations with Belgrade, don't you undercut Mr. Panic? In other words, how do you get peace talks going if you don't have them as part of it, Sen. Rudman?

SEN. RUDMAN: I have very serious doubts in my mind about the effectiveness of the control that Mr. Panic has. I think he is well-intentioned. I think he would like to be a part of the solution, but frankly, my view, and Sen. Mitchell expressed his, is that Mr. Milosevic still calls the shots, controls the vast establishment of Serbia, and that Mr. Panic is frankly being used as a trojan horse while they do their dirty work. That's my belief.

MR. MacNeil: Do you share that view, Sen. Mitchell?

SEN. MITCHELL: Well --

MR. MacNeil: You met with Mr. Panic, didn't you?

SEN. MITCHELL: We met with Mr. Panic for quite a while, better than an hour, during our trip, and he clearly is very well- intentioned, and if you take his statements at face value, why I think they represent a significant improvement over the policy of Serbia and Montenegro. I think the problem is that which Sen. Rudman has identified, and it is: Does he have authority within his country? Is he speaking for all of the people of that country, or, in fact, does President Milosevic have greater authority? The evidence so far and certainly the views of all of the other leaders with whom we met is to the latter, i.e., that Milosevic has the greater authority and that Panic does not. Now we obviously hope that in this current crisis coming to a head in the next few days in Serbia that his view and he personally will prevail. But I think that's doubtful, given what we heard and saw on our visit.

MR. MacNeil: Let's come back to the two alternatives you were talking about a moment ago. What do you say, Sen. Mitchell, to the acting chief of Yugoslav affairs at the State Department, George Kenney, who resigned last week, and on Sunday he wrote, "The administration doesn't really want to know the facts of the horror in Bosnia, because the more we know, the greater the public pressure to act," what do you say to that observation?

SEN. MITCHELL: Well, I think, in fact, there is something to the contention that insufficient attention has been paid to the problem throughout the Western world. The fact is that what has occurred there is truly horrifying. The atrocities that were reported perhaps were not as systematic and organized or as effective as something like the Holocaust, but, nonetheless, they ought to shock the conscience of all Americans. And one of the reasons we went there was to provide a greater focus and greater attention. At the same time I think it should be noted that we were encouraged to go by the State Department. The office handling these affairs in the State Department was very encouraging about our visit, very helpful in setting it up, and so it's clear to me that, at least there, there is an effort to focus attention on it and to try to get some action taken. We think the right action is, of course, that which is laid out in our letter.

MR. MacNeil: Well, Sen. Rudman, what do you think of Mr. Kenney's claim that was in the piece in the Washington Post on Sunday after his resignation that the failure to act more forcefully amounts to appeasement there, that -- in the end that Serbia will end up getting the benefit of the fighting by being able to keep what it's -- what it's gained by aggression?

SEN. RUDMAN: Well, of course, that conclusion may be warranted, but that does not necessarily mean that this government had any viable options of the "more forceful action" that Mr. Kenney has advocated. I have found little support for military action of any kind. As a matter of fact, we have heard just the opposite just about everywhere that we have gone. There is a very small group of people in this world that believe that military action will do anything but exacerbate the situation. Now, if he is saying that we should have been more forceful diplomatically, I can agree with that. But let me just make an observation. You know, governments try to do their best in sometimes very vexing situations. This one really defies easy solution. Let me give you a quick example. The Bosnians, the Muslims, are against partition. Their president made that very clear. However, in talking to refugees in those camps who have told us the most horrifying of stories about being uprooted by their neighbors, taken, all of their personal goods taken, put on the road and essentially told never to come back, seeing relatives killed, we ask them, can you go back to your homes, can you go back to your places, and they say no. So what will military action get you? Very little. Diplomatic action may get you more, but quite frankly, this is not a new problem. This s a five hundred year problem that was held under the thumb of Tito for the last forty years and once that lid came off, all the old hatreds have emerged and although I certainly admire the gentleman, and I certainly admire anybody who resigns over principle, I am not sure that the options that he speaks of were viable then or viable now.

MR. MacNeil: Sen. Mitchell, do you agree and did all six of you Senators who made the trip, the bipartisan group, did you all come back convinced that there is no military option for the United States there?

SEN. MITCHELL: We came back convinced that widespread military action is not necessary now and we hope will not ever be necessary. And one of the reasons we so strongly favor more aggressive diplomatic and economic action is to make certain that further military action isn't necessary. I don't think you should jump militarily until that is clearly the last resort. And our point is other options have not been fully exhausted. This, the sanctions on Serbia and Montenegro are not fully effective, because they have not been fully enforced. The diplomatic isolation is not effective because we and other Western European nations have -- still have diplomatic relations with Serbia.

MR. MacNeil: So --

SEN. MITCHELL: Our position is we ought to exhaust those possibilities before we start talking about widespread military force.

MR. MacNeil: You've both -- and Sen. Rudman was just referring to it -- you've been there now, you and the other Senators. You witnessed the horror. You've heard at firsthand from people who've suffered. What is your recommendation, Sen. Mitchell, for the fastest way to stop the killing there?

SEN. MITCHELL: The fastest way to stop the killing?

MR. MacNeil: Fastest way.

SEN. MITCHELL: The fastest way to stop the killing, in my judgment, is to make clear to the Serbian government and to the extent that it controls Bosnian Serbs to them that there will be no reward for aggression, that those who commit crimes will be punished, and that the best way to solve this problem is through peaceful means. Now, I recognize that there are some who feel that the Serbs will not -- will not accept that position unless massive amounts of force are applied against them. I respect that position. I do not think that is a correct position. I think vigorous enforcement of the sanctions, an economic stranglehold, a real stranglehold --

MR. MacNeil: That could take --

SEN. MITCHELL: -- total diplomatic isolation, that's the way to go right now, I believe.

MR. MacNeil: That could take some months though, couldn't it, Sen. Rudman?

SEN. RUDMAN: Robin, let me simply say, you know, I agree with what Sen. Mitchell has said. I think the entire group agreed on it, but let me just take another side of what was in your question, how to stop the killing. The fact is that in talking to military people over there and in talking to some before -- before we left, it is clear that it would be an extraordinary difficult situation for any military group. These people all are the same ethic group. You don't know who your enemy is at any particular moment. The terrain is such that it is very difficult to operate in, and unless you're talking about massive application of force against Serbia, in a strategic way, there is not much that can be done, short of a massive intervention, in the area of Bosnia. And I can think of no one who believes that even with all of the suffering that that is an appropriate use of force at this time.

MR. MacNeil: Okay.

SEN. MITCHELL: Robin, if I could just add to that --

MR. MacNeil: Sure.

SEN. MITCHELL: -- in answer to your question, of course, a massive military attack now will not stop the killing. It means that different people will be doing the killing and different people will be being killed. Now, innocent people hopefully won't be killed, but I don't think right now it is necessary to do that. We believe we can accomplish that objective by means short of a massive military intervention.

MR. MacNeil: Well, Sen. Rudman and Sen. Mitchell, thank you both for joining us.

SEN. RUDMAN: Thank you, Robin.

SEN. MITCHELL: Thank you.

MR. MacNeil: Thank you. Now a report on today's fighting in two senses. In Sarajevo, there was more shelling and more dead and wounded. In Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, and once the capital of Yugoslavia, the fighting was political. We have a report prepared by Jenny Russell of Independent Television News.

MS. RUSSELL: The Serbs who shell Sarajevo appear indifferent to peace talks, or to power struggles. This morning another two people died and twenty-five were injured. It's less than a week since peace was agreed at the London conference on Yugoslavia, and on every day since people have been killed in Sarajevo and across the republic of Bosnia. No one had expected the fighting to end immediately, but the prospects of peace looked suddenly weaker this morning. Across the country in the Serbian capital, Belgrade, a power struggle has emerged between the two most powerful Serbs. Milan Panic, the prime minister who talked of peace in London, was smiling publicly today, but he may be on the verge of losing his job. The man who wants him out is Slobodan Milosevic, the aggressive Serbian president who's seen by many as the destructive force behind Yugoslavia's civil war. The relationship has soured fast. It's only seven weeks since Mr. Panic and Mr. Milosevic were shaking hands. Mr. Panic, who'd fled communism to make millions in America, had just become prime minister at the invitation of the Yugoslav parliament. Mr. Milosevic intended the new man to be a figurehead.

CHRIS CVIIC, Royal Institute of International Affairs: Mr. Panic was only a front man and he played a very useful role for Mr. Milosevic, a public relations role, in deterring the West from taking out tougher sanctions and perhaps intervening militarily in Bosnia. He fulfilled that purpose, then he suddenly became too independent. And now the question is: Does Mr. Milosevic get rid of him quickly, which I think he will, and what happens next?

MS. RUSSELL: The divisions between the two became evident at last week's London conference. Mr. Panic humiliated Mr. Milosevic by insisting that he alone had the right to speak for the Yugoslav delegation. He offered concessions to Croatia and to Bosnia. And he made clear his own personal commitment to peace.

MILAN PANIC, Yugoslav Prime Minister: [August 28] And if Mr. President Milosevic or anyone else fails to live up to each and every one of these mandates for peace, I'll personally lead fight against them.

MS. RUSSELL: And fighting's exactly what Mr. Panic is having to do now. Mr. Milosevic left the conference enraged by the usurping of his authority. Under his instructions, the ex-communist and the Yugoslav parliament have accused Mr. Panic of betraying Serbia's interests. And they'll vote on a motion of "no confidence" at the end of this week. Some observers believe that the West could be forced into taking action if Serbian hardliners are seen to take complete control in Belgrade.

DR. JAMES GOW, Center for Defense Studies: The presence of Milan Panic makes the whole international negotiating effort far easier from the point of view of the international community. He is somebody who's shown the will to seek compromises, to try and accommodate with the international community. If he goes, the whole negotiating process will become many times more difficult. In terms of the fighting, he has been the one taking the initiative to try and persuade the Serbs in Bosnia to accept Western demands, for example, to give up their heavy weaponry. If he goes, Milosevic, who has been controlling this military machine throughout, may well feel no need to compromise in the same way. We won't be back at square one, but we'll be some way back down the ladder.

MR. MacNeil: We turn now to the United Nations peace envoy to Yugoslavia, former Sec. of State Cyrus Vance. After successfully brokering a cease-fire earlier this year in Croatia, Sec. Vance was asked to represent the United Nations at peace talks which began in London last week. He will be leaving for Geneva, Switzerland, tomorrow, where he will be co-chairman of the new round of talks starting on Thursday. Mr. Vance, thank you for joining us.

MR. VANCE: Thank you.

MR. MacNeil: If Panic is forced out, does that make -- as these British commentators are suggesting -- does that make the peace process very much more difficult?

MR. VANCE: It certainly makes it more difficult. It yet remains to be seen how great his strength is. On the other hand, he has made some very constructive suggestions, including some of those made at the peace conference, and, therefore, I think it would be foolhardy at this point to try and see Mr. Panic forced out because I think so far he has had some constructive suggestions and he ought to stay and see what can be done to build on some of those suggestions.

MR. MacNeil: Would Milosevic, if he were, as they say -- as they've just characterized it -- if the hardliners were left alone in Belgrade, were they have any incentive to come and negotiate seriously?

MR. VANCE: They might have some incentive because of the way that the sanctions are beginning to bite and a number of other things that I think will flow from the fact that we have restructured the way in which the international community is going to try and deal with the problems of Yugoslavia.

MR. MacNeil: How does that new restructuring -- where I gather what you've done is you've got the European Community and the United Nations together in this now -- and also the Muslim powers in the United Nations come behind this -- how does that change things for Milosevic and the Serbs?

MR. VANCE: Well, in the past, we have had basically two or three, however you want to look at it, parties involved. One was the European Community, which was charged with the responsibility of peacekeeping and in the longer run peace building, whereas, the obligation and responsibilities of the United Nations has been peacekeeping. In the judgment of a lot of us, and certainly agreed to unanimously at the conference which was held recently in London, we all agreed that what best could be done would be to merge or meld together the activities of the European community and those of the United Nations so that we could then have a cohesive approach to peacekeeping, peacemaking, and peace building. And we are going to work continuously in continuous session, starting on Thursday, when we begin our work, and we will continue to do so until we see what we can produce over this period of time. I think that solidarity, the more harmonious way of dealing with things that we have given gives us a better chance to do something. And that's not to say it isn't going to be very rough sledding, because it is going to be rough sledding. But I think together with Peter Carrington and myself as the co-chair and with six working groups, which we have set up, that are going to be working around the clock, that we have a better chance of producing some results.

MR. MacNeil: You're not -- do you ever think of the precedence of all of those conferences in Geneva, some of which, peace conferences like the ones on Indochina that just went on for years and years and years?

MR. VANCE: Yeah. But this is not a lot of people sitting around a table. It is a very small group that consists of in the actual day-to-day working group. Lord Owen and myself, as the two co- chairmen, and then the six working groups, the six very able co- chairmen, and we will be working together, and we will be the one that has to get things done.

MR. MacNeil: Is the point that having all these people -- and I understand that the five permanent members of the Security Council are also represented in this larger group, that by consolidating world opinion against the Serbians, they will have finally to pay attention, is that the --

MR. VANCE: That is very much part of it, but it also is the fact that when it gets down to the working group, the working group is going to be small, tightly-knit, and working in continuous session. So it's a combination of bringing in what is called the steering group of which the two co-chairmen are again Lord Owen and myself. It will have the molding and use of international pressure, but the day-to-day work that has to go around the clock will be a very small, lean group.

MR. MacNeil: You may want to put your hat on as an American citizen to this and a former secretary of state to answer this question, but you just heard what the two Senators and their colleagues have recommended to the State Department, to Eagleburger, that the U.S. should sever diplomatic relations with Milosevic and Belgrade in order to really make the message clear. Would that be a smart move at this point?

MR. VANCE: At this point, I do not think it would be a smart move. I think that we have to see what we can do working together. We know that we have Mr. Panic in there working, as well as others who have similar views to him. It is not clear at this point that Mr. Milosevic in the end is not going to feel that the time has come to cooperate. There is very, very heavy pressure beginning to build with respect to the sanctions and one of the main things that has come out of the discussions in London are the call for additional strengthened sanctions in the Danube, in the Adriatic, and in many other areas. That is critically important and we have to get at it right away and implement it with clear steps that have to be taken.

MR. MacNeil: Because oil and other supplies have been sneaking through this --

MR. VANCE: They have --

MR. MacNeil: -- and keeping the Serbian machine going.

MR. VANCE: -- indeed.

MR. MacNeil: The -- the -- you've recommended or you referred yesterday to the need for a larger U.N. force there, and that's been recommended to the Security Council. What -- how much larger and what would it be used for?

MR. VANCE: Well, it would be used primarily at this point for assisting in getting the humanitarian goods that have to be gotten through, food, et cetera, and to make sure that they can get through and, therefore, we are increasing the size of the force by some -- or I hope we'll -- and the action will be taken in the Security Council sometime within the next few days. There will be an approval of that which will add at least 3,000 plus additional people that can work to make sure that the convoys get through and that the food gets through, and that the help gets through. I think also that they may -- it would be helpful if we can now begin to implement some of these commitments that have been made on paper, but not yet honored, with respect to taking the heavy weapons, to putting them in specific places, and then to have them under the monitoring of United Nations forces. Those forces, indeed, the whole group of forces now will be under the United Nations.

MR. MacNeil: Let me ask you probably too simple a question here, but, how do you stop the Serbs and particularly the Bosnian Serbs from fighting, when they think they can still get more land and maybe perhaps still enlarge this greater Serbia they talk about? And how do you stop the Muslims in Bosnia from fighting back to stop that happening? How do you --

MR. VANCE: I will give you two answers to that.

MR. MacNeil: Yeah.

MR. VANCE: First of all, if one can believe what is written on paper, at least as far as Bosnia is concerned, the Bosnia Serbs have said in a paper which was tabled at the conference in London that they recognized that they had to return a substantial amount of land. Indeed, it is my judgment they have to return all the land that has been seized by force. And that replies to all of the parties. Now, insofar as the Muslims are concerned, yes, as far as firing takes place, the Muslims are going to fire back. Or if there is initial firing by Muslims to protect in certain areas, then you've got the Serbs firing back. We've got to get a handle on this and get it together as quickly as we can.

MR. MacNeil: Going back to the relief effort for a moment, President Bush in the past has said that U.S. forces might be available to help guarantee the delivery of relief supplies. Do you see that situation coming where the U.S. or French or British or other military forces would need or carrier planes in the U.S., carriers in the Adriatic would be needed to protect those supplies?

MR. VANCE: Insofar as the application of force is concerned, that is a question that remains to be seen. That will depend upon the exact mandate which is given and the resolution which will be taken up as far as the next steps to be taken.

MR. MacNeil: So is that part of what's going to be taken up on Thursday in the Security Council, whether force should be used to guarantee the delivery of supplies?

MR. VANCE: At this point, the resolution, as I understand it, will provide that these additional forces will go with the relief convoys and work with them. They will act --

MR. MacNeil: U.N. forces.

MR. VANCE: The U.N. forces. They will not initiate firing. They will only fire if fired upon, which are the current rules that exist, but they will be there, and if attacked and they will have to defend themselves.

MR. MacNeil: Well, Mr. Vance, thank you very much for joining us. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Tuesday, President Bush said the federal government would pay for all eligible disaster relief in Florida instead of the usual 75 percent. The number of military troops on the ground in South Florida rose to 20,000. The army's top generals said another five thousand may be needed. And in economic news, the index of leading indicators rose .1 percent in July. The index is used to predict economic activity six to nine months ahead. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Jim. That's the NewsHour tonight and we'll see you tomorrow night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.