The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. Leading the news this Friday, special trains were arranged to take 4500 more East Germans from Czechoslovakia to West Germany. In the Colombia drug war, a powerful car bomb killed four persons in Bogota, and the U.S. Senate voted to remove from office a federal judge in Mississippi. We'll have the details in our News Summary in a moment. Charlayne Hunter-Gault is in New York tonight. Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: After the News Summary, politics dominates the Newshour tonight. First we zero in on election day next Tuesday with four election watching columnists, Mark Shields of the Washington Post, Kevin Phillips of American Political Report, Earl Caldwell of the New York Daily News, and Neal Peirce of the National Journal. Then on to the battle for Mayor of Detroit reported by Correspondent Fred Sam Lazaro. Next Correspondent Charles Krause looks at a new kind of politics for Mexico, the election of an opposition candidate. And finally Correspondent Tom Bearden reports on the long slow cleanup after Hurricane Hugo.NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: There were more developments in the East German exodus story today. Forty-five hundred more refugees gained their freedom. They had come from East Germany to the West German embassy in Prague, Czechoslovakia, during the last few days. They took advantage of looser travel restrictions announced earlier this week. The refugees took up almost every free inch in the embassy. Finally an agreement was worked out today to let them leave immediately by train for West Germany. This evening East Germany leader Egon Krenz appealed to his countrymen not to go West. Krenz made the appeal on national television. He promised to make reforms. He said, "Trust our policy of renewal. Your place, dear fellow citizens, is here. We need you." Krenz also announced a shake-up in the ruling politburo. He said five members of the eighteen member committee will resign next week. All five were associated with the man Krenz replaced, Eric Honecker. The Mayor of Leipzig, a major East German city, also resigned today. The decision had to do with the huge pro-democracy demonstrations there during the past few weeks. We have a report from East Berlin by Ian Glover James of Independent Television News.

MR. JAMES: Neue Forum is the main opposition group behind mass demonstrations for political freedom now occurring daily in East German cities. They're spearheading the pressure on the authorities which today brought the resignation of Leipzig's mayor, Bernz Seidl. He was promising reforms here four days ago. Now he's gone. But despite that pressure, East German leader Egon Krenz effectively ruled out a dialogue with Neue Forum in an interview with ITN today. He said, we'll talk to all citizens who are for the development of the German democratic republic without any exception, provided those talks are within the constitution. But more shocks for the system today from Prof. Gerlach, who heads the minority Liberal Democrat Party in the government coalition. Their newspaper called for the resignation of the entire government. It could be a contrived maneuver to clear the decks before next week's key central committee meeting here, but tomorrow 1/2 million East Berliners will demonstrate in this square, demanding more than just a re-shuffle from Mr. Krenz.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: There was also a protest for change in another Eastern bloc country today. More than 4000 people marched through the streets of Sofia Bulgaria demanding reforms. It was the first rally of its kind in Bulgaria since the end of World War II. Many of the demonstrators chanted "democracy" and "glasnost". While uniformed police surrounded the demonstrators, they made no attempt to stop the protest. And in the Soviet Union, 12 of the 13 coal mines in the arctic have been shut down by a strike. Some 18,000 miners in all have walked off the job, threatening a major new industrial crisis. The workers charge that promises which led to ending an earlier strike this summer were not kept.

MR. LEHRER: There was more killing today in Colombia's drug war. A car bomb exploded in Bogota. Four people, including an 11 year old child were killed. Police estimated the bomb was made of 50 pounds of dynamite. Bombs also exploded last night at a bank, super market and printing plant in Bogota. No one was injured. More than 20,000 judges and judicial workers continued their strike for more protection from the drug cartel.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Back in the U.S., the unemployment rate held steady in October at 5.3 percent. Nearly 1/4 million new jobs were created, most of those in the service sector, but the manufacturing sector lost jobs for the fourth straight month, with the auto industry particularly hard hit. That industry is off to another bad start this month. Chrysler today announced it was laying off a total of 4,000 workers from plants in Detroit, St. Louis, and Coleman, Wisconsin. The company blamed the layoffs on slow sales.

MR. LEHRER: The Senate voted today to remove another federal judge from the bench. Walter L. Nixon, Jr., was convicted and served prison time for perjury, but had refused to resign his judgeship. He was a federal district judge in Mississippi. Two weeks ago, the Senate took similar action against Alcee L. Hastings, a federal judge in Florida. Both judges were accused of improperly involving themselves in cases pending before them and then lying to grand juries about it. Iran-Contra figure Oliver North may get his $23,000 a year Marine pension back. The Senate voted last night to restore it. His pension was taken away after he was convicted of destroying government documents and other charges growing out of his actions while a national security aide to Pres. Reagan. Vice Pres. Quayle told reporters today North, who was a Marine officer, deserved the pension.

VICE PRES. QUAYLE: He served the nation and it's a legal issue, and the issue is broader than just Ollie North. It's a legal issue, but it does apply to Ollie North, and the legislation should pass and we anticipate that it will.

REPORTER: Some of the Senators say that it's unconstitutional.

VICE PRES. QUAYLE: Well, I think they're wrong.

MR. LEHRER: The House still has to vote and Pres. Bush must approve it before the pension is reinstated.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: That's it for the News Summary. Still ahead election day countdown, the battle for Detroit, new political winds in Mexico, and the Hugo cleanup. FOCUS - ELECTION PREVIEW

MR. LEHRER: Politics is our lead story tonight. Next Tuesday's elections make it so. Pres. Bush was out in the middle of it all today. He made campaign appearances in support of Republican candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey. In Virginia, he came to boost Marshall Coleman, a former state attorney general. Coleman's opponent is Virginia's current lt. governor, Douglas Wilder. He hopes to be the first black ever elected governor in the United States. Two Congressmen are in the race for New Jersey governor, Democrat James Florio and Republican Jim Courter. There are also several tight mayors races in major cities, chief among them is in New York City, where Manhattan Borough Pres. Democratic David Dinkins faces former U.S. Attorney Republican Rudolph Giuliani to become that city's first black mayor. With us now for an election preview are one half of our Friday night analysis crew of Gergen & Shields, Mark Shields, syndicated columnist for the Washington Post, David Gergen is out of the country. Mark is joined tonight by Kevin Phillips, Editor & Publisher of the political newsletter The American Political Report, Earl Caldwell, columnist with the New York Daily News, and Neal Peirce, contributing editor of the National Journal and a syndicated columnist on state and local issues. He joins us from Portland, Oregon. Mark, it took three men to replace David Gergen tonight.

MR. SHIELDS: Don't let him know that.

MR. LEHRER: I won't tell him. Let's begin with the abortion issue. It's been raised in both the New Jersey and the Virginia governors races. In your opinion, how important is it to their outcomes?

MR. SHIELDS: I think it's important in Virginia, and I think the post mortems, some of which have already been written about the Virginia campaign, will be even more important for other states in the politics of abortion in the future.

MR. LEHRER: The post mortems --

MR. SHIELDS: The post mortems, if Doug Wilder, the Democratic Lt. Governor and a black man, wins, then the conventional wisdom as written so far has established that he won because of abortion. Conveniently, then if he loses, he loses because he's black and Virginia voters were red necks and we never trusted them anyway. At least that seems to be sort of the shorthand has emerged. But I really do think that it's a central issue in the campaign. It's an issue that not only is important, itself, because both candidates have discussed it and it's been widely debated. But it's also important because it's a character issue. It reveals how a candidate handles it. And I think Marshall Coleman, the Republican candidate, has not handled it well. Even his most partisan supporters would acknowledge that to the point where when confronted by Wilder in a televised statewide debate, he asked what about abortion, your position on it, Mr. Coleman. And Marshall Coleman's response was it's a very difficult issue.

MR. LEHRER: Kevin Phillips, would you agree that the problem on abortion for Marshall Coleman is more the way he's handled it or the issue itself?

KEVIN PHILLIPS, American Political Report: I think it's both. I think Coleman had a particular problem. To win the Republican primary, he took positions compatible with the religious right in Virginia. He did win it barely and he got himself trapped in a position that became very untenable when the Supreme Court came down with a Webster ruling. However, the way he handled it then when it was untenable added to the character issue, and I think that Coleman has looked like a flip flopper and it has reinforced doubts about Marshall Coleman as a person.

MR. LEHRER: Earl Caldwell, what do you think when Mark says if Doug Wilder loses, he loses because he's black, if hewins, it's because of the abortion issue?

EARL CALDWELL, New York Daily News: Well, I would say this. I just believe that the other piece here is that there are some new winds blowing in America now. I think that the electorate, the wider electorate, is beginning to be comfortable with the idea of candidates running who are black, and many of these candidates are proving themselves to be very attractive, very effective, and I think we say that race doesn't figure in. Of course, it does. It will always, I won't say always, but it does in this country, but I think a lot of it has to do that you can rise and fall in an election now based on your issues and the positions.

MR. LEHRER: But, Earl, would you not agree that both Doug Wilder in Virginia and in New York, Mr. Dinkins, who's running for mayor, are both different type of candidates than say Jesse Jackson was in terms of the issues, and in terms of what they believe and what their backgrounds are?

MR. CALDWELL: I'm not so sure how different they are on the issues. But I think that their campaigns are night and day different from Jesse as we know, even Jesse was different from Jesse to his first to his second. Let's take Dinkins here in New York. He has been very effective at pulling together what his campaign in its earlier stages used to call the Rainbow Coalition. Actually what he's been very effective in doing is bringing together the old coalition that we used to call the Democratic Party. A lot of Democrats when those policies put forward by the Democratic Party, mind you, a lot of them, were very successful, a lot of these Democrats then found themselves in the middle class or what they felt were the upper reaches of the middle class, and they thought they were Republicans and went over there. Now a lot of these people are coming back to the Democratic Party and candidates such as Dinkins have been very effective because they can also hold on and have been able to expand the black base. And while Jesse Jackson put forward the idea of more a black empowerment, and our time has come, you don't get that kind of rhetoric out of people like Dinkins, and you don't hear much of it out of Wilder. However, I think it is important the Washington Post had a front page story pointing out that Wilder was, indeed, campaigning hard and openly for the black vote. And while Dinkins' rhetoric is soft, he has campaigned well in the black communities here in New York also.

MR. LEHRER: Neal Peirce in Portland, I know you're in Portland, but you've been following all of these races all over the country. Marshall Coleman made a statement yesterday, and he accused the press generally but specifically the Washington Post of a double standard, of giving Doug Wilder a free ride because he was black, and a similar situation there have been past suggestions of that also with Dinkins because of some of the things in his past have not gotten a lot of attention. What's your reading of that?

NEAL PEIRCE, National Journal: Well, I don't know whether the Post has been fair or not. I would think they had on the whole. Certainly in New York, Dinkins got a lot of trouble in the press when he got in trouble this year during the campaign when there were revelations about his personal finance. Both of these men are sort of steady as you go, work hard up through the ranks politicians, who have been able to establish themselves I think quite differently from the Jesse Jackson image or the image of very fiery black activist civil rights candidates, and that capacity has made the press watch them I think in a friendlier fashion than it might otherwise. You have Wilder in the tradition of Chuck Robb and Gerald Belisles who are middle of the road, very progressive popular governors in the State of Virginia. And Dinkins has been a cool person, sort of able to get along with all camps, a unifier in the way he's presented himself. Those types of candidacies usually don't get a lot of attack from the press offhand.

MR. LEHRER: Mark, on Wilder specifically, Wilder told Judy Woodruff on a piece that we had earlier this week, he specifically said, I was not involved in the civil rights movement, I was busy running for office and all of that, I would never ever ever claim to have been there at the beginning. Isn't that a whole new stick for a black candidate to make?

MR. SHIELDS: It is and Doug Wilder's right in that statement to Judy. I would add that if he does win --

MR. LEHRER: I mean the politics of his making that statement.

MR. SHIELDS: Absolutely. It's entirely different. I mean, and Doug Wilder is. He is a career politician. He was a state Senator from Richmond before he was lieutenant governor. Neal's point is well taken. I guess there's just one thing, if he does win, he owes a hell of a lot more to Chuck Robb, the moderate white Democratic governor from '81 to '85, and Jerry Belisles, the moderate white Democratic governor from '85 to '89, he's run in the Robb-Belisles tradition rather than anything to do with Jesse Jackson, so he represents as well a competing power center within the party. I mean national Democrats would like to have Doug Wilder win for that very reason. I mean, this is somebody who is running things, who is competent, that there is a little competition. Jesse Jackson has had the exclusive franchise in the Democratic Party.

MR. LEHRER: Kevin, would you agree with Earl Caldwell that it's not just Dinkins and Wilder, that something really new is going on here, that this demonstrates some possibilities and some probabilities in a more general way as well?

MR. PHILLIPS: Well, I think the key is Wilder. I don't really think that Dinkins reflects very much of a trend. I mean, if he gets 55 percent of a vote in a city that's basically 3 to 1 Democrat, that's not really very much base broadening. But if Wilder wins in Virginia, then I think you're looking at something that would suggest that pattern. And that's why I think Coleman is taking a chance but has a minor point when he says there's been a double standard on Wilder because I think a lot of people want the first black governor. And he's a capable politician. I don't that think some of the questions raised about him would matter very much if they were gotten into more. But they haven't been pushed very much because people, I think a lot of people in the news media want Wilder to succeed. Now that's the race. Dinkins, I think if he's elected, he'll be another mayor of New York. Whether he's white or black, he's going to have to manage a city that's a mess and he probably won't be a great success. But Wilder is your big story in this election.

MR. LEHRER: What about in the Dinkins case, the double standard? It has been suggested that several years ago he failed to pay his income taxes a couple years or so, and it's been suggested if that had happened, a white candidate with that kind of record would have been laughed out of the race by now.

MR. PHILLIPS: Oh, I'm not so sure. In cities like New York and Boston there are white candidates with that sort of record who have been borough presidents and mayors, so I think that's not a double standard in New York.

MR. SHIELDS: I dissent. I would say that I think it's a tougher, it becomes tougher than, it's one thing if I'm running against Kevin, and we're two white men, and I haven't paid my taxes. He raises the issue and says Shields an ethical leper and a moral eunuch and all the other things. Running against a black, it's a different, more difficult, more awkward approach for white candidates. You've seen white candidates. I don't care if it's Rudy Giuliani in New York or Marshall Coleman in Virginia. They've been knocked off balance by running against a black. I mean, that has given a certain advantage to the black candidates in both those races.

MR. LEHRER: Earl, do you agree?

MR. CALDWELL: Far from it. The fact of the matter is maybe more than any other issue in the Dinkins campaign has been the fact that he didn't pay his taxes some 20 years ago. He was not evading, found he'd be in a situation where he was evading taxes. It was more the way I gather some sloppiness on his part. But it has been very a widely up and down discussed issue. The fact of the matter is there has been no double standard that they haven't been able to make any hay on it. I think the people are a little bit out in front of some of these charges. People are saying, well, what does this man stand for on balance, where has he been, what has he contributed? And Dinkins, like Wilder, is another one of these political persons who's come up through the system and he's made a record. And people are judging him by this total contribution that he's made in the city. And he's handled himself very well in this race.

MR. LEHRER: So you disagree with both Mark and Kevin that their opponents are kind of pulling their punches a little bit and at a little bit of a disadvantage because of that?

MR. CALDWELL: I think the notion that candidates who are white when running against a candidate who is black tend to pull their punches, there is no issue unless they feel that the overwhelming electorate would be black. But no, I don't think there is. And I think it's just like the issue of Coleman saying that the Washington Post has a double standard. What we're really looking at is a fellow who's trailing in the polls, and he looks like he's staring a big loss in the face, and so he's making some kind of desperate accusation.

MR. LEHRER: Neal Peirce, in general terms, whether you're talking about the specific races that we've talked about, what else, is this election important in any kind of general way as far as Democratic Republican Party reapportionment, other things that may be going on?

NEAL PEIRCE, National Journal: Well, I think it is important if a black is elected governor of Virginia for the Democratic Party that they can say that they have done that, and to some degree to a black mayor in New York City. The abortion issue in both the New Jersey governorship race and the Virginia governorship race and slightly in New York is also very important because in all cases the Democratic candidate who seems to be ahead right now is taking a pro-choice position which is definitely miles away from where the President and their Republican opponents are, or at least were at the beginning of the campaign. And that's quite a major political tea leaf projection suggestion of where we're going if pro-choice candidacies seem to carry the day very easily.

MR. LEHRER: What about Pres. Bush, has he got anything riding on these races Tuesday? The first campaigning he did was really today, isn't that right?

MR. SHIELDS: No, he had been out before. He had been in New York for Rudy Giuliani and in New Jersey.

MR. LEHRER: I stand corrected, but, Neal, does the President have much at stake on Tuesday?

MR. PEIRCE: I don't think the President's invested a lot. I don't think he has a lot at stake, and from I can recall of the passed by elections, off year elections for a long way's back, no President's campaigning or statements have made much difference after we looked at the returns, they never seem to.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree, Mark?

MR. SHIELDS: I think George Bush did the right thing. I think it's always a wise use of Presidential time to be the leader of his party, which is the essential part of his responsibility. The last time that the two states didn't split was 1969 when the Republicans won both states. Before that in 1965, the Democrats won both states. I didn't see any national trend emerging from that.

MR. LEHRER: What's your view of this, Kevin?

MR. PHILLIPS: I don't think Bush has any real stake here. I think the problem that he faces is that the Republican Party does both in terms of abortion and its signalling an issue which is going to be difficult for the Republicans, and then secondarily, in terms of redistricting. If the Democrats win in Virginia and they win in New Jersey, and take the assembly there, they're going to control redistricting completely in both states in 1991. And that would be the beginning of a pattern which could continue next year of the Republicans' hopes for redistricting just going by the --

MR. LEHRER: All right. Well, Kevin, Mark, Earl, Neal, thank you. FOCUS - CITY OF DETROIT - CITY HALL STAKES

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Now we take a documentary look at another political story, Tuesday's mayoral election in Detroit. Mayor Coleman Young is running for a 5th term and facing one of the toughest challenges of his political career. Fred De Sam Lazaro of public station KCTA-Minneapolis-St. Paul filed this report on the closely watched Detroit campaign.

MR. LAZARO: From its appearance and typical vital statistics, Detroit would seem anything but a safe have for an incumbent mayor, especially one who served the past 16 years. In that time about half a million people have fled to the suburbs. Few cities have higher crime or infant mortality rates. But there is another set of statistics that has assured the incumbency of Coleman Young. When he became its first black mayor, Detroit was about 60 percent white. Today it is about 70 percent black. And Young reminded this rally those numbers are significant, both politically and economically.

MAYOR COLEMAN YOUNG, Detroit: When I became mayor in 1973, less than $20,000 a year went to minority contractors, last year $134 million. Our police department today is 52 percent black. It's the only police department in the United States that's majority black.

JACK CASEY: He speaks for the black community. He's not defensive. He will take anybody on for what he believes in, whether you agree with him or not.

MR. LAZARO: Jack Casey is now a political consultant. Sixteen years ago he was press secretary to Young's predecessor at Detroit City Hall. At that time, Casey says, black participation in running the city was minimal, something he says Young set out to change quickly.

JACK CASEY, Political Consultant: When the city was let's say 60/40 white, it was 98/2 white on the police force, 99 to 1 on the fire department. So there was a lot of catch up when Coleman Young came in. Obviously anything that changes that quickly, it isn't that orderly perhaps and there is resentment from people who had power who are giving it up. [YOUNG AT RALLY]

MR. LAZARO: There's no question Young's tough combative style has served his well, but for many of his constituents, life, itself, has gone from tough to tougher. Political observers say that's begun to chip away at Mayor Young's popularity.

SUSAN WATSON, Columnist: A lot of folks who "brung Coleman Young to where he is now" are senior citizens, folks who are living alone and frightened. People are just terribly terribly frightened and fed up with crime and the death of our young people.

MR. LAZARO: Detroit Free Press columnist Susan Watson says there's also a growing feeling that Young's energetic regime of 1973 has begun to tire.

MS. WATSON: I think most people feel that whatever you're going to do, whatever good or ill you're going to do, you're going to have it done maybe the first 10 years, and after that it's not going to make a whole lot of difference. I think people feel, using Barrow's slogan, it's a real good one, that it is time for a change.

MR. LAZARO: The man promising change at city hall is 40 year old Tom Barrow, a Detroit born and bred MBA, head of his own accounting firm.

TOM BARROW, Mayoral Candidate: It's well and fine, and we fought those struggles in the '60s and the '70s, thousands of black people died. But now we're at a stage where those who are the product of the struggle, we're here. We have the skills, we have the capabilities. Now we need to use it. It doesn't mean we don't appreciate Coleman. Coleman's been fine when he came along. But it's now 16 years later. The problems of 1989 are not the problems of 1973.

MR. LEHRER: Barrow first challenged Coleman Young in 1985, losing by a 60/40 margin. Although better organized for the 1989 race, he was virtually written off earlier this year when veteran Congressman John Conyers entered the mayoral contest. But Conyers lost the September primary. So what the pundits expected to be a bloody fight between two stalwarts of the old guard turned out to be a two way race between the generations. Detroit's neighborhoods appear to be a concern that's ripe for Barrow's picking, and he's promptly accused the mayor of neglect. Crime and drugs are predictable issues, but in Detroit, there is another measure of despair, the number of vacant homes and buildings. There are 15,000 of them in this city.

ED DOBBS, Barrow Supporter: There's this house over here that's about falling apart. I had inquired about this house here, but it's being vandalized on a daily basis. I think, you know, there's got to be an effort directed or centralized by the city government to save these houses or to tear them down and build something else. And I don't think Coleman Young is at this age now equipped to handle that responsibility.

DETROIT RESIDENT: He's done his job. So let's somebody else get mayor that's got different ideas.

MR. BARROW: The only way we're going to begin to attract businesses back and jobs is to be able to create growth. Growth will create value. Value will create jobs. That means we have got to deal with crime, with neighborhoods, with schools, and quality of life. Businesses will never locate where those things are out of whack.

MR. LAZARO: Barrow seizes every opportunity he can to press the flesh to bring his message directly to voters as he did at this East Detroit parade.

ANNOUNCER: [YOUNG COMMERCIAL] The job starts early and hard.

MR. LAZARO: For his part, Coleman Young is running on television commercials portraying a mayor preoccupied with city business too busy for parades. He also shuns most media interviews. The crowds that he does appear before are guaranteed friendly like this one gathered by a group called Clergy for Mayor Young.

REV. CHARLES ADAMS, Clergy for Mayor Young: They said that nobody could entice General Motors and Chrysler to build two brand new assembly plants in the heart of Detroit, when these kinds of plants are only being built in the green suburbs, the sun belt, Asia, or South America. But Coleman Young did. Let me tell you, Mr. Mayor, I would rather have a sage like you in his 70s, than to have a fool in his 40s, a freshman in his 50s, or a sophomore in his 60s.

MR. LEHRER: To offset Barrow's references to a tired, elderly mayor, Young's campaign has played up the wise, sage image, claiming it has brought industries back to the city. Barrow responds those gains have only made a difference downtown, not in the neighborhoods. And, he adds, they've cost millions in incentives. But even Barrow is careful to preface his criticism with what seems obligatory homage to Coleman Young.

MR. BARROW: I recognize Coleman Young's achievements. I will never take that from him. But I recognize it's time for us now to move to our second generation. Now his has become one of blind and naked abuse and arrogant abuse of power.

MR. LAZARO: Coleman Young says that power has brought unparalleled opportunities for blacks in the city. But gains are still fragile, he warns, and their best custodian is still Coleman Young.

MAYOR COLEMAN YOUNG, Detroit: As we approach the '90s, the future could be ours. That calls for continued unity.

MR. LAZARO: Barrow charges such calls for unity among black voters only aggravates racial polarization in the Detroit metropolitan area.

MR. BARROW: We've got to begin to serve the entire metropolitan area so that if we don't, we're isolating ourselves. We are deliberately segregating ourselves.

MR. LAZARO: Barrow's pronouncements have won him overwhelming support among whites, many of whom feel disenfranchised in Detroit. Whites, however, account for barely 1/3 of the voters, so Barrow also has to emphasize his credentials as a black leader, one who understands the struggle, even if he was spared most of it.

MR. BARROW: I remember as a little guy going down to Birmingham, Alabama, where my daddy was from, and sitting in the Greyhound Bus station, the coloreds only section. I remember going to Macon, Georgia, where my mother was from, getting my ice cream from a Dairy Queen at the side window. We've got to begin to move forward.

MR. LEHRER: According to current polls, Detroit voters are unlikely to hand Young's baton to Barrow. The Coleman Young legend, a huge political machine, and a $5 million war chest have made the task daunting if not insurmountable. Time though is clearly on Barrow's side. For better or worse, columnist Watson says a post civil rights era generation will take over.

MS. WATSON: All across the country, you're seeing whole bunches of black urban professionals, that 30, 20, late 20s, 30s, early 40s group that's been to school, may not articulate or act on in the same way that their parents may the forces that brought them here. The best example is, who is it, Debbie Turner, Miss America, who said the least of what she is is black. And I'm not saying that Barrow would say that the least of what he is is black. It would be politically stupid to say that. But he represents a cut of people who, and this is what folks have struggled for in some ways who have "made certain gains", and may be a little bit more removed from the nitty gritty of the struggle and the urgency of the struggle than some other folks. So in that sense, there are probably a whole lot of Tom Barrows. a whole lot of Tom Barrows.

MR. LAZARO: Meanwhile, many Detroit residents say even if Barrow doesn't win this year, Coleman Young's first real re-election fight in years has had its benefits, like a more responsive city government. For example, city hall's demolition program is way ahead of schedule. All told, it will raise 6,000 buildings this election year, twice the number projected when the election campaign began.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: A poll published today by the Detroit Free Press showed the gap between Young and Barrow narrowing. But Young still leads by 8 percentage points. Still to come on the Newshour, politics in Mexico and after Hugo. FOCUS - WINDS OF CHANGE

MR. LEHRER: Next tonight a report on some major political changes underway in Mexico. They involve a new governor and the problems of Baja California, but have implications for the entire country. Our report is by Correspondent Charles Krause.

MR. KRAUSE: The excitement was genuine, the event itself truly historic. Wednesday night when Ruffo was sworn in Governor of Baja California, Mexico entered a new political era. Sixty years of one party rule had come to an end. The historical inauguration took place in a sports arena packed mostly by Ruffo's local supporters. But the ceremony and Ruffo's political fortunes were being watched far beyond Tijuana, Baja California's largest city, and Mexicali, its dusty, provincial capital. From the State Department in Washington, to businessmen in Tokyo, who've invested millions of dollars in assembly plants here along the U.S.-Mexican boarder, there's been enormous interest in Ruffo since his election last July. Experts were comparing the new governor's election to Solidarity's rise to power in Poland and to glasnost in the Soviet Union. From Washington, Delal Baer says Ruffo's victory in the State of Baja California, is a watershed.

DELAL BAER, Political Scientist: I think it signifies a new era in Mexican politics. It signifies the end of single party rule, potentially the beginning of a new era of Aztec glasnost, or Mexican glasnost, an era of multi party competition, and possible alternation of parties in power, and that's remarkable for Mexico.

MR. KRAUSE: In his acceptance speech, Ruffo described his goals and those of his party, The National Action Party, also known as the PAN. It's Mexico's oldest and best organized party, traditionally appealing to businessmen and the middle class. Ruffo was cheered when he promised that his new government would bring honesty, efficiency, less red tape, better roads and better services to Baja California, Mexico's fastest growing state. Watching and listening closely, Mexico's President, Carlos Salinas Des Gortari. Salinas heads the institutional Revolution Party, the PRI or the PRI. It's a political machine that's held an iron grip on government and absolute power in Mexico for 60 years. Until Salinas promised political reform during his own campaign last year, the PRI had never allowed itself to lose any important national or statewide office. Wayne Cornelius is Director of the U.S.-Mexico Center at the University of California, San Diego. He like many other experts, says historically the PRI has used election fraud whenever necessary to guarantee its continued monopoly on power.

WAYNE CORNELIUS, Political Scientist: The theory was that if you gave out control at the state level, that that would pave the way for an outpouring of opposition voting because people would realize that for the firsttime their vote actually meant something and they were actually capable of turning out PRI governments and that this would simply cascade into an uncontrollable situation in which the PRI would, in fact, have to relinquish power.

MR. KRAUSE: That hasn't happened yet, but in recent elections throughout Mexico more and more voters expressed their frustration by voting against the PRI. Tired of corruption and a decade of economic crisis, they cast protest votes for the opposition. In election after election, the PRI was forced to commit ever more blatant fraud to keep itself in power. Only by last year the newly elected Salinas and other reformers with n the PRI recognized that the old strategies for maintaining power would have to change.

MS. BAER: Increasingly we've seen mass mobilizations and protest around what were perceived by the public to be faulty elections or election fraud, and if anyone should know the importance of restoring the credibility of the Mexican electoral process, it should be Carlos Salinas, because his election was the most contested and controversial election in modern Mexican history. There are many people today in Mexico who don't, in fact, believe that he won his own election. Now regardless of what the truth of the matter is, Salinas realized that he had to convince the Mexican public that he was serious about political reform and that he was going to restore the credibility and integrity of Mexican elections.

MR. CORNELIUS: Salinas came to the conclusion at some point during the preceding administration that unless the PRI were thoroughly reformed and modernized, turned into a real political party that was effectively competing and winning elections without fraud, that it was going to be increasingly difficult for the party to hang on to power at the national level without massive fraud that would become so conflictual that it would actually become destabilizing.

MR. KRAUSE: Cornelius says Salinas faces many of the same problems as Mikhail Gorbachev in the Soviet Union.

MR. CORNELIUS: There are some striking parallels between what's going on in the Soviet Union today and what is going on in Mexico. I think the most striking one is the kind of fierce internal resistance within the ruling party that both Gorbachev and Salinas are confronting. There are powerful vested interests within the ruling party, within the labor and other organizations that are tied to it, who are very threatened by the prospect of a more competitive political system. political

MR. KRAUSE: This summer Baja California, became an unusual political background. While Ruffo campaigned against the PRI, Salinas was doing battle with the old guard in Baja for control of the local party. As a result, the governors race became a key test of the new president's political strength and of his commitment to political reform. On election day, early returns showed the opposition had won. But then there was confusion. Ruffo now says he believes Salinas intervened directly from Mexico City to save the election.

ERNESTO RUFFO, Governor, Baja California: The signs from Mexico City were win the election if you can, but we won't help you on anything that's against the law. It seems that that was the message from Mexico City. And they tried to steal the election over here but they did not get the big support. So that made it easier for us.

MR. KRAUSE: Ruffo is an amateur politician, a good government type. He was first elected to public office just 3 years ago. As may of Encenata, Ruffo cleaned up years of corruption and gained a statewide reputation for hard work, openness and honesty. Critics have charged that because the PAN is essentially a middle class party, it doesn't represent a threat to the PRI. It was relatively easy, they argue, for Salinas to allow Ruffo and his conservative supporters to form the first opposition government. Cornelius disagrees.

MR. CORNELIUS: Baja California, was a very important state to "give up", it was politically sensitive precisely because it is on the border with the United States, and there has long been a myth within Mexican political circles that whatever state government you give up, it can't be one of the border states for nationalistic sovereignty reasons. It's also very important because the state's economy is booming and it has become such an important part of the national economy. So it is by no means an insignificant state either economically or politically. Whether recognizing a victory in Baja California, is the first step in a much broader deeper process of democratization and political modernization in Mexico is I think the largest unanswered question at this point.

MR. KRAUSE: Ruffo says he thinks Salinas and the PRI will decide future elections on a case by case basis.

MR. RUFFO: What I see is that cost benefit relation. Whenever they see that the cost is going to be affordable, they will not recognize an election. When they see problems and stability for their future, then they will accept it. It could be maybe a token for five, ten years, but it will happen again, and then again, and at the end it will mean we have to accept the ideas of many and do it in an orderly way.

MR. KRAUSE: According to the critics, what Salinas fears most is not Ruffo in the right but Guatemo Cardinas and the left. Cardinas is the son of a revered former president of Mexico. He's a populist who even by the official vote count almost defeated Salinas in last year's presidential election. This year in the state of Michawa Kan most independent observers believe Salinas and the PRI resorted to old fashioned election fraud to keep the Cardinistas from taking office. Even those who sympathize with Salinas call his approach to political liberalization selective democracy.

MS. BAER: Salinas' commitment to political reform may be a gradual one. The results of the elections in Michawa Kan were dubious, and that is not the only election that has occurred since Salinas has been in office in which the results were dubious. I think Salinas would like to be able to control the pace of reform. He would like to have reform take place in a gradual fashion rather than snowball. It is my own personal belief that Mexico will have to make a transition to democracy in order to be stable in the long run. It is no easy task to create democratic institutions in a country that has not experienced democracy in 60 years.

MR. KRAUSE: Ruffo's victory means the transition to democracy in Mexico has now begun. A pragmatic man, Baja's new governor hopes to avoid confrontation. He knows his state and his government may well determine the pace of democratization in Mexico and the scope of political reform. The results will be watched closely, especially across the border. Whether Ruffo succeeds and how Mexico's political system evolves will be of vital importance to the United States. UPDATE - AFTER THE STORM

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Finally tonight, life after Hurricane Hugo. The September storm battered the Virgin Islands and the Carolinas with winds up to 130 miles per hour. It left behind massive cleanup problems. Correspondent Tom Bearden reports from Charleston, South Carolina. [TOUR OF CHARLESTON]

MR. BEARDEN: The tourists are beginning to return to Charleston, South Carolina, even though hotel rooms are hard to come by. They're still filled with disaster workers. Tour guides have to dodge an occasional pile of debris left over from Hurricane Hugo. But repairs to the graceful old houses along the harbor are nearly complete. City officials say Charleston is back in business. That kind of talks makes George Cutter angry.

GEORGE CUTTER, Volunteer Worker: They say the disaster, the emergency is over with. It's not over with here, man. You see this here. It's like Vietnam. It's just like what it looked like when I was in the service, Vietnam, mortars. People ain't got but one house over there. People walking around that one bathroom right there where they're using, it everybody's using it. People got to get back to their living, Christmas is coming, Thanksgiving is coming, man, and they say it's over with. I heard them say that on the news. The mayor said the thing was over with. The thing ain't over with. He needs to come out here and tote some of these trees.

MR. BEARDEN: Cutter is from Savanna, a volunteer here on his vacation. He's working to help clean up a place called Copahy, a tiny subdivision on the intra-coastal waterway about 10 miles North of Charleston. Five weeks ago there were 130 families living here, mostly in mobile homes. There isn't very much left of Copahy. The Barrier Islands offshore weren't much of a barrier. Hugo pushed a wall of water right over them, right through Copahy. The hurricane literally smashed this place. Copahy is relatively isolated. It hasn't got a lot of attention either from the press or government. David Stewart says that's true of a lot of these small coastal settlements. He's from Miami. Like George Cutter, he's also a volunteer working to clear the lots so people can begin to rebuild.

DAVID STEWART, Volunteer Worker: We haven't had any real help. It's been mostly the Red Cross and a few people, individuals that have come out here. We had a group out here from Alabama. And what you see, the little few piles that are out here, is from them. They did most of that. There is aid out here but it is not the aid that they need. There's food and there's stuff like that. But as far as getting them back to normal, it's going to be a long time coming, and if you look along the shore as you go up the coast, it's the same thing over and over. Every little community like this, all the way up the coast as far as the storm hit, you'll find this everywhere.

MR. BEARDEN: Most of the criticism has been focused on FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Mountains of forms are being processed at the agency's central office in Charleston. It's part of a massive effort to help an estimated 50,000 families apply for federal disaster aid. The law provides for temporary housing assistance, low interest loans to help people rebuild, and even direct grants to the neediest. But a lot of people here say FEMA has been far too slow to distribute any of that aid.

JACK BUTT: We found one next door neighbor's foundation laying through here.

MR. BEARDEN: Jack Butt and his wife, Hope, lost everything when the storm surge swept away their mobile home.

JACK BUTT: I've called FEMA on several occasions and all I get is a run around on it. I can't get anything as far as a distinct answer.

MR. BEARDEN: What do you mean by run around?

MR. BUTT: I get an answer without having an answer in it. They don't really tell me yes or no. All I want is a yes or no, if I'm qualified for a loan, if I'm qualified for a grant, if I'm qualified for temporary housing. That's all I want, a yes or no, so I can know if there's another outlet. Instead, I've waited 5 weeks so far and I still have nothing.

MR. BEARDEN: Paul Hall is FEMA's top man in North Carolina.

PAUL HALL, FEMA: It's not fast enough for the family, the family that's hurt, it would have been ideal if he could have applied and I could have gotten him a check within seven to ten days, which is what a normal system is calling for, but it is just the magnitude of people involved. I could not do it this fast.

MR. BEARDEN: Hall points out that in South Carolina alone, this disaster has affected five times more people than the usual hurricane. At the same time, FEMA is trying to cope with the destruction Hugo visited on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and then the San Francisco earthquake came on top of all of that. But a lot of people in South Carolina aren't impressed by that argument. In McClellanville a few miles North of Copahy, the storm tossed dozens of shrimp boats into people's front yards. Farrell White's boat wound up practically embedded in a house. He and his son, Scott are trying to salvage their battered craft. They have to keep the wooden hull wet until they can get it back in the water. A seam might open if it dries out. White says he's been fighting bureaucratic red tape from the moment he showed up at a FEMA disaster office to apply for help.

FARRELL WHITE: You stand in line all day, you get there early that morning and you stand in line all day, some people two days, and you fill out all these forms. And FEMA tells you we're going to have a man to your house in 48 hours. Well three weeks goes by and no FEMA.

MR. BEARDEN: And White says it's not just a simple matter of waiting. The process is complex and confusing.

MR. WHITE: You really need your attorney to fill them out, maybe connected with your bookkeeper. I mean, they're real complicated, you know, for the average person. Now I'm not a college graduate, so you know I mean, it's really hard to fill out these forms.

MR. BEARDEN: White's boat will be repaired but he faces a tough winter. He's already missed 80 percent of the shrimping season. He's applied for a loan from the Small Business Administration but doesn't think he'll get a check anytime soon.

MR. WHITE: It's just promises and paper work. I mean, it'll be six months. I've dealt with the SBA before. I know how they work. They say we'll have it to you in a month and it'll be six months.

MR. BEARDEN: Hall denies the process is unduly complicated. He says FEMA actually fills out the forms for disaster victims. And he says the agency has to verify claims because the law requires it to prevent the kind of fraud that has occurred in the past.

MR. HALL: I don't call that red tape and anyone that does is not familiar with a normal governmental operation. It's less red tape than it is filing his IRS form, quite frankly. It's just never going to happen that you can expend taxpayers' money without verification to ensure that's a proper expenditure. If you could eliminate that, and a lot of the people said hey, let's knock out the bureaucratic red tape, and as we line up, you hand us our money as we come to the head of the line, in all honesty, that's never going to happen. That's never going to happen.

MR. BEARDEN: Barbara Jeffcoat doesn't want to hear that.

BARBARA JEFFCOAT: You're beaten mentally, physically, and you just can't see why people can't overlook some of the rules for a little while and do what needs to be done.

MR. BEARDEN: Jeffcoat's trailer in Copahy washed away even though it was perched atop a 10 foot tall steel scaffold. She's been living in a camper ever since. Five weeks ago she says she applied to FEMA for temporary housing assistance. It angers her to see stories on television about 150 federally owned trailers earmarked for temporary housing sitting vacant because FEMA says they can't find anybody who wants them.

BARBARA JEFFCOAT: The government could have put them down here easily for people to live in temporarily until they got their own homes built back. And it's not like we're asking for something that they don't have or have to put extra money in. They have all the money to build more, make more ammunition to blow us up with, when all we want to do is live.

MR. BEARDEN: FEMA said the agency offered those trailers to 1500 families and all but 6 decided to take other forms of aid. More people will be given the option. There are some who have an even more fundamental complaint than delays or red tape. Jack Butt says the law as written actually penalizes the middle class.

MR. BUTT: The people that worked for a living, that had more than 40 hours a week that they had to report to, the people that took care of their family, the ones that had insurance on their homes, not enough to get rich off of but at least enough to cover their mortgages, those are the ones that aren't getting taken care of. It's the ones that had no jobs, had no insurance, are living off welfare, those are the ones that are getting taken care of.

MR. HALL: I can see where a person comes from. He comes back, I'm a middle class taxpayer, I've paid taxes all my life, now you're penalizing me because I have insurance. Well, we've got to go back to what the premise of the law was. It is to supplement, and that's the key right there, to supplement assistance, alleviate the suffering, and help a family or political entity get back on their feet. I cannot duplicate assistance a family is obtaining from another source.

MR. BEARDEN: The massive relief effort for South Carolina is slowly winding down. Volunteers like these will pack up the tents and move on. Eventually life here will return to normal, but not immediately.

HOPE BUTT: Where you had plans from day to day before, you had your work to go to, you had your day all planned out for you, now you have no plans the night before when you go to bed and when you get up, you really don't even know where to begin. Before you know it, the day is over and you really feel as though you haven't accomplished anything at all as to getting your life back together.

MR. BEARDEN: In the meantime, that mountain of forms gets bigger. The people of South Carolina, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Northern California are waiting eagerly for the relief they hope all this paper work will eventually bring. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Friday, trains were organized to take 4500 more East Germans directly from Czechoslovakia to West Germany. East German leader Egon Krenz appealed to his countrymen not to go to the West. He promised more political reform in East Germany, a powerful car bomb killed four people in Bogota, Colombia, as the war with the drug cartel continued, and the U.S. Senate voted to remove from office a federal judge in Mississippi, following his conviction for perjury. Good night, Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Good night, Jim. That's our Newshour for tonight. We'll be back on Monday. I'm Charlayne Hunter-Gault. Have a good weekend.