The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, an election eve look at where it all stands, with reports by Gwen Ifill, Ray Suarez and Lee Hochberg; and analysis by Mark Shields and Paul Gigot, David Broder, David Brooks and Tom Oliphant. It all follows our summary of the news this Monday.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: This was the last day of the 2000 presidential campaign. Governor Bush and Vice President Gore made final appeals for votes in battleground states. Bush swung through Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Iowa, and he added a stop in Arkansas. In Green Bay, Wisconsin, he urged supporters to round up independent voters.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Will you tell them to the core of this campaign is the inherent trust in the American people. I believe it doesn't matter what political party they're in, they're going to come our way. I believe you're going to find Americans know that there's a better tomorrow. I also want to assure you that the core of my philosophy not only is trust in the people when it comes to public policy, it is to trust this great land to make sure that the promise of America holds out its reach as we head into the 21st century; that the halls of our government is not where we find America's strength, it's in the hearts and souls of our citizens. Ours is a unique nation, unique nation, because it is full of compassionate people who on a daily basis form the fabric of compassion for the country. We can lift this nation's sites and we can lift this nation's spirits so that the greatness of this country continues to be strong and vibrant as we go into the 21st century. But it requires a leader, and leaders around the nation that understand the responsibilities of the offices to which they have been elected. So should I be the one after tomorrow night, should I be the one America turns to-- (cheers and applause) should I be the one this great land turns to to lead us, I want to assure you that when I put my hand on the Bible in January of 2001, that I will swear to not only uphold the laws of this great land but to call upon the best to stand side by side with parents who are teaching their children right from wrong to serve as an example for which parents in Americacan be proud. I will also swear to uphold the honor and the integrity of the office to which I have been elected, so help me God. Thank you all for coming!

JIM LEHRER: Governor Bush was to end this day back in Texas. Vice President Gore started before dawn today on more than 30 straight hours of campaigning. He went from Iowa to Missouri and from there to Michigan and Florida. He plans to return to his home state of Tennessee tomorrow. At a rally in St. Louis, he asked supporters to imagine Wednesday morning.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: There are two alternatives. Here's the first one - here's the first one: You wake up with a splitting headache and you hear a hard, cold driving rain mixed with sleet and a little hail hammering against the window pane, and you stumble out of bed and your knees hurt and you walk toward the front door and you stub your toe and open the door and it's gloomy and you see the newspaper is soaked completely through. The bottom of it is stuck to the stoop by the sleet, and you dig it loose and peel off the front page and hold it up to the light and you see Bush-- (crowd booing). There is another option! (Crowd cheering) It's early Wednesday morning and in the seconds before you awaken a shaft of golden sunlight flickers on your eyelids, you hear the sweet sound of song birds on the windowsill, the smell of the fresh cut flowers on the table by the bed mingles with the aroma of fresh brewed coffee wafting in from the kitchen. Your favorite song comes on the cock radio, and you leap out of bed just feeling great, and you dance your way to the front door and you fling open the door to the warm rays of that sun, and you pick up the newspaper and it says Gore/Lieberman wins-- Missouri wins! Let's do it! Let's vote - tomorrow! Thank you!

JIM LEHRER: The rest of the program after this News Summary will be devoted to the election. The Food and Drug Administration warned today against over-the- counter drugs that contain the ingredient PPA. It said the chemical could cause bleeding in the brain. PPA is found in dozens of cold medicines and diet pills under brand names including Dexatrim and Triaminic. It's been on the market for decades. The FDA said it's trying to formally ban the ingredient. In the Middle East today, two Palestinian teenagers were shot dead in clashes with Israeli troops in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Doctors said about 30 people were wounded. Israeli Prime Minister Barak accused the Palestinians of not doing enough to implement last week's truce. The Palestinians said U.S. mediation had been ineffective. They demanded a role for the United Nations, Russia, and the European Union. In Manchester, England, today, surgeons operated to separate three-month-old Siamese twin girls. Their Catholic parents opposed the surgery on religious grounds. But in September, a British court ordered the procedure to save the stronger twin. Doctors said the other infant would not survive the operation. They were joined at the abdomen with a fused spine, and they shared a heart and lungs. The surgery was expected to last into the night. That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the campaign end game with reports by Gwen Ifill, Ray Suarez and Lee Hochberg; analysis by Mark Shields, Paul Gigot, David Broder, David Brooks and Tom Oliphant.

FOCUS - ENDGAME

JIM LEHRER: Here now is the end of the presidential campaign. First, Vice President Gore. Ray Suarez has the report.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Are you read?

CROWD: Yeah!

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Are you ready to fight?

CROWD: Yeah!

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Are you ready to win?

CROWD: Yeah!

RAY SUAREZ: In the final hours of his long presidential campaign, Vice President Al Gore seemed ready and willing to make the most of his organization's work.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: I want each of you to get me one more vote in your precinct. Can do you do it?

RAY SUAREZ: The crowds brought out were large and enthusiastic...celebrities lent their star power to the rallies...like actor Jimmy Smits in an airport hangar in Milwaukee.

(singing)

RAY SUAREZ: And musician James Taylor at a union hall in Pittsburgh. The fireworks went off, like the candidate's jokes, without a hitch.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: He wants to take a trillion dollars - a thousand billion dollars - out of the Social Security Trust Fund, and he's promised it to two different groups of people. He's promised it for a savings incentive to young people, but then he's turned around and promised the same money to seniors to keep their benefits from being cut. Now, I know that one plus one equals two. But one trillion promised to two different groups of people doesn't add up unless you're using what kind of math?

CROWD YELLING: Fuzzy math!

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: You're right; fuzzy math.

RAY SUAREZ: Only one question remains: Can Al Gore win? A top campaign strategist said, sure we can.

TAD DEVINE: We feel in a strong position to win. We believe we are going to win, based on all the information we have. But this is a close election, and, you know, what happens within individual states or events between now and then could affect the outcome. And we've just got to try to focus on doing everything on our side to make sure that people who know that Al Gore should be the next President, who understand and respond to his message, in fact, go out and vote.

RAY SUAREZ: In the Democrats' campaign geography America is no longer 50 states but something more like a dozen, and Al Gore has visited them again and again to the very last minute. The Gore campaign says in a race this close, this close to election day you won't see the Democratic candidate spending any time or money in states they really think they can't win. So the travel schedule acts as kind of a strategic blueprint. The candidates and their wives will spend the final hours before the polls open in Missouri, Minnesota, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Shoring up critical Pennsylvania meant targeted "get out the vote" appeals to blacks, seniors, and union members in Pittsburgh. Betty Jean Williams says the Clinton/Gore years have been good ones for the Hill district, her Pittsburgh neighborhood.

BETTY JEAN WILLIAMS: We have people who are employed who were not employed before. We have people who have moved into middle class, and some of them have left this Hill and have gone on to suburbia.

RAY SUAREZ: Troy Potter counts himself as the dwindling number of undecideds heading into Tuesday.

TROY POTTER: I haven't made up my mind if I'm going to go with my party or go away from my party. I'm holding out until, I guess, the last day.

RAY SUAREZ: At an historic old church in black Pittsburgh, the Vice President told his boisterous audience, you won't see it in so many words, but affirmative action, equal pay for equal work, and Supreme Court picks are all on tomorrow's ballot. Then this southern Baptist turned scripture into political metaphors.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: We're told about the valley, of the dry bones, a scene of utter desolation and death and destruction and hopelessness, and the Lord breathed into it, (cheers and applause) and bone came to bone and sinew came to sinew, and they rose up like a mighty army, and they went to the polls and they voted.

RAY SUAREZ: The Vice President told his audience he'd next be heading to a union rally in a predominantly white part of the city. Saying Americans needed to close the gaps that divide them, Gore invited his audience to the Electrical Workers Union Hall, and many took him up on his invitation. The next crowd heard the gospel of turnout preached by the leaders of some of the largest industrial unions in the United States.

SPOKESMAN: Every generation has its own defining moments. Your defining moment can well be on November 7 when we have an opportunity to elect the next President of the United States, when we have an opportunity to change the course of history, not only in Pennsylvania, but in the nation.

RAY SUAREZ: The Gore stump speeches this final weekend sought to sow doubt about Governor Bush's proposals on the economy, on education, on prescription drugs, and Supreme Court appointments. And the vice president repeatedly capitalized on a recent Bush gaffe regarding Social Security.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: He said, "what do they think Social Security is, some kind of federal program?" ( Laughter ) Yeah, and it's a damn good one, too. ( Cheers and applause )

RAY SUAREZ: All weekend the vice president portrayed George W. Bush as a man ready to listen to the powerful and wealthy, to the detriment of average Americans.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Now, Governor Bush says that he'll get along with everybody in Washington, and that's... there's something to be said for that. We need less partisanship. It got pretty partisan when Newt Gingrich and that gang came in in 1994. But the question remains, who does he want to get along with -- the HMO's -- the big oil companies? The pharmaceutical companies? The lobbyists and special interests? Those who benefit from the tax cut for the top 1%? Look, sometimes a president has to be willing to say no to the special interests to say yes to your future. (Cheers and applause )

RAY SUAREZ: 350 people at headquarters in an industrial park outside Nashville are moving people, money, and information around. Here in the steady din of office noise, they're creating the campaign the public sees. Gore's staff has saved its ad money for a last-minute blitz where the race seems close.

SPOKESMAN: Yesterday I got five states-- Florida plus three, Michigan plus two, Pennsylvania plus four, California plus eight, and Maine plus...

RAY SUAREZ: If that gamble pays off, Troy Madres and thousands like him will push up normally low turnout for people in their 20S.

TROY MADRES: I just don't think that Republicans necessarily have a handle on what the issues are for people living in cities or minorities or for that matter, you know, someone who's young who really cares about government changing things.

RAY SUAREZ: Steady, older reliable Democrats, like James and Marguerite Pinkney, won't only vote themselves but get others out as well themselves.

JAMES PINKNEY: I'll be there at 7:00 Tuesday morning until the poll closed to make sure that they get out. They don't have a ride, I have a ride for them. I'm going to be there. This is very crucial.

MARGUERITE PINKNEY: I'm usually a early evening voter, but when they're very special elections like this, I make it first, before I go to work. First thing.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Thank you, Philadelphia!

RAY SUAREZ: For the Gore camp, a lot of things have to go right tomorrow even as internal polls continue to show fluid movement up and down for their man in key states.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Forty years ago, John Kennedy beat Richard Nixon by a margin of only one vote per precinct. They're now saying this election is as close or closer than that one was. This is one of those elections that you're going to tell your grandkids about. You'll look back and you'll tell them, "back at the beginning of the 21st century, we had an election that was so close, so hard fought, that I personally made the difference by getting the votes to the polls, and we won!" (Cheers and applause)

RAY SUAREZ: The campaign hopes to have 50,000 volunteers hitting the streets tomorrow morning for the express purpose of pulling out the Democratic base. Gore's hopes may ride on how well they do their jobs.

JIM LEHRER: And to Shields and Gigot; syndicated columnist Mark Shields, and "Wall Street Journal" columnist Paul Gigot.

Mark, Vice President Gore, how is he finishing his campaign in your opinion? How well?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, he's finishing it. Jim, it's a strategy born of necessity. He's got - Saturday he was in West Virginia, before Ray picked him up - there, with Robert Byrd, dean of the U.S. Senate, Jay Rockefeller, the other Senator, campaigning his heart out, trying to come up from behind in a state which Michael Dukakis did - carried in 1988 - which every Democrat, save Fritz Mondale in 1984, has covered - carried in the past 30 years. So he's - it's a strategy that's born, as Ray pointed out, of six or eight states where he's concentrating all his effort, all his energy. There is a sense of urgency about it, contrasted with Governor Bush's campaign, some would say desperation and exhortation.

JIM LEHRER: Desperation?

PAUL GIGOT: I agree with, Mark. It's certainly not an uplifting vision. It's a turnout argument, Jim. It's scare people about Governor Bush - the things - awful things are going to happen; you're going to lose your Social Security benefits; he said at one point this week, Jim, if he wins, George Bush wins and appoints Supreme Court nominees, they're going to bring us back to the days when African-Americans were only 3/5 people. Now, you know, that's not exactly inspiring visionary stuff, but it is designed to scare people, get them to the polls, and basically run the inside straight in the electoral college that he needs to win this.

JIM LEHRER: What kind of marks would you give Al Gore as a candidate for President during this campaign in terms of how he began and how he's ending?

PAUL GIGOT: Not very good, Jim. I don't think he ever felt comfortable running. He never decided what he was going to do with President Clinton, never got comfortable how he was going to run with him or without him, against him, and so he never got on message, it seemed to me; never really got comfortable even making the case for prosperity, that you could continue it, because it was almost as if wanted to distance himself from Bill Clinton personally, but then couldn't make the argument for what has happened to the country under the Clinton watch economically. It's been awkward, strained.

JIM LEHRER: "Awkward, strained," Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, if he does lose on Tuesday, and I'm not sure that he will by any means, but if he does, he will be blamed. It's unprecedented. He's broken every political scientist's heart, because with 3.9% unemployment, with a period of unmatched prosperity, 110 months I think the last time, on economic growth the last time I checked, of peace in the world, with a President with a 63% favorable job rating, "Wall Street Journal" poll today, Bill Clinton's higher, that Al Gore could lose with no-- this is not an electorate, Jim, of 1994 with the angry white male. I mean, this is an electorate that isn't angry, this is an electorate that is not one that's upset over some unmet national need. So Al Gore -- the last week has been a psychodrama on the last page of the paper-- how he's dealing with Bill Clinton, how Bill Clinton is giving interviews to "Esquire," whether or not he posed for the picture, didn't know whether it was coming out, whether it was going to be used. And if I'm not mistaken, Ray Suarez' piece, that's the first time I have heard Al Gore mentioned Newt Gingrich. I mean, George Bush has used that very effectively. The past eight years have been this time of consternation and friction and tension, and never once has Gore given what's the obvious answer to most Democrats, that, you know, it was Newt Gingrich who brought this politics of polarization.

JIM LEHRER: We'll pick this up in a minute. Don't go away. Now let's look at Governor Bush and his last campaigning. And Gwen Ifill has that report.

GWEN IFILL: Listen closely to the cheers.

GOV. TOM RIDGE: Are you ready to roll?

GWEN IFILL: The fireworks. Listen to the die hard supporters.

WOMAN: I have 12 children and I've taught them from the time they were babies to be people of principle and stand for what you believe, whether it's popular or not. He has, I admire that, and aside from being a man of integrity, he's got some excellent programs that we haven't seen. The people have the power. That's one of the reasons I think he's just an excellent choice, and I can't wait to go push my button.

GWEN IFILL: And listen to the candidate.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I take nothing for granted in the great state of Pennsylvania. I want your vote, and I want your help. This is a close race. It's going to be a tough contest. After all, we're running against the incumbency. God bless.

GWEN IFILL: What you hear and what you see is a confident Republican presidential campaign roaring toward the finish line on the last weekend of a neck-in-neck race that has become-- there's no other way to describe it-- a horse race. Governor Bush's advisors say these final campaign days are playing out exactly as they planned, a dash through crucial states and a fanciful grab for a few less winnable ones. Like New Jersey, where Governor Christy Todd Whitman suggested Bush might yet be able to overcome an Al Gore advantage.

CHRISTINE TODD WHITMAN: We're going to prove all those pundits wrong, because we're going to vote for the next President, George W. Bush. (applause)

GWEN IFILL: Traveling through Pennsylvania on Saturday, retired General Colin Powell was in tow.

COLIN POWELL: We're looking for leadership in Washington, we're looking for leadership in the White House that will be principled leadership. We're looking for people who will restore dignity and honor to the White House and to the nation's capitol.

GWEN IFILL: But Florida is the prize. Bush devoted all day Sunday to defending his campaign against its most lethal threat: The chance that Vice President Gore could steal Florida out from under him.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I need your help on this election, because I'm running against old-style politics. I'm running against that politics of the past. I'm running against somebody who... I'm running against somebody who's trying to scare people into the voting booth.

GWEN IFILL: The itinerary, a geopolitical tour of the sunshine state, from the heavily Republican Jacksonville area, to prosperous West Palm Beach, down the coast to the population center of Miami and back up North to the state's agricultural and resort destination, Orlando. Along the way, he sprinkled his pitch with a little Spanish.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Hola.

GWEN IFILL: Attempting to turn his nickname W. into a cheer. Along for the ride to touch all the bases, Bush nephew, George P. to appeal to the young.

GEORGE P. BUSH: The big question is, is Miami ready to elect the next President of the United States?

GWEN IFILL: Mayor Rudy Giuliani was there to reach out to expatriate New York retirees. The only other retired official who plans to lose more than the Texas Governor would if Florida slipped away -- Florida Governor Jeb Bush -- the candidate's older brother.

GOV. JEB BUSH: There's one candidate that does inspire us to be better and to do better, and believes in a brighter future, and that's my brother, George. Please go out and get 10 other people to go to the polls on Tuesday. It is very important. We can make a difference for the future of liberty in this hemisphere, for the future of freedom, and for the future of prosperity of the next generation of Americans.

GWEN IFILL: George Bush also joked if it brother doesn't deliver Florida, the family Thanksgiving holiday will be a chilly one this year. By deciding to spend so many of the campaign's waning hours here in Florida, George Bush is acknowledging a vital political truth, even if he doesn't win Michigan, Pennsylvania, or any of the other toss-up battleground states, he can still capture the White House but not without Florida and its 25 electoral votes. Karl Rove, Bush's chief political strategist, joined the road show for its final swing.

GWEN IFILL: Why are we in Florida all day today?

KARL ROVE: It's a state that wants to be asked for the vote, and we're

going to make certain. This is a state that Al Gore absolutely has to

win if he's going to beat us, and he's not going to beat us.

GWEN IFILL: Doesn't George W Bush absolutely have to win it too?

KARL ROVE: No, there are lots of different ways to put together 270 for

us. We start with a much broader base of support in the West and the South and the

Midwest than does Al Gore.

GWEN IFILL: Florida Congressman Bill McCollum in his own tight race for the U.S. Senate this year says the state is well within reach for Bush.

REP. BILL MCCOLLUM: I think we're now moving in the right direction, and what I

sense out there right now is intensity and momentum. One of the things people don't always see in Florida and I see it now, because I've been out here a lot -- this is the most invigorated the voters have been in our base, the Republican base, conservative base in Florida, since 1980 and Ronald Reagan and the workers are out there, they're getting out to the polls. We have gotten more absentee ballots out than the Democrats do by over 100,000, and so I feel we're doing the things that are right to win, and the polling numbers in my race look very, very good in parts of the state where people wouldn't expect us to do as well; that's going to rub off and that's going to bring George Bush home as well.

GWEN IFILL: As added insurance, millions of phone calls, thousands of pieces of direct mail, and this pre-election appearance Sunday with popular evangelist Billy Graham, a family friend, who all but endorsed Bush.

BILLY GRAHAM: I've been praying that God's will shall be done. I don't endorse candidates, but I've come as close to it, I guess, now as anytime in my life because I think it's extremely important. We have in our state absentee ballots, I've already voted, I'll just let you guess who I voted for.

GWEN IFILL: Bush's message to the party faithful is not complicated. Now boiled down to an efficient 15 minutes, his theme: Al Gore, he insists, cannot be trusted.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: The role of a leader is to set clear agendas. The role of a leader is to make it clear what the nation must do. The role of a leader is to take the issues as clear as possible to the people. The role of a leader is to not to try to reinvent himself during the course of campaigns, but to be steady and firm.

GWEN IFILL: A Bush presidency, he says, would reduce government, cut taxes, and improve education and retirement security.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: The surplus is not the government's money, Al Gore. The surplus is the people's money. (cheers and applause) And our are over taxed!

GWEN IFILL: And leadership, he concluded, is about more than just Washington experience. For the true believers, the message strikes a chord.

PATRICIA FRISBY: There's a lot of candidates in the past that have not had Washington experience. The current President did not have Washington experience. Reagan did not have Washington experience. So I don't think that's really an issue. I think he has the ability to have a cabinet that is filled with a great deal of experience, and he's able to lead the country.

GWEN IFILL: Bush is not above taunting the Democrats.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Now, I'm running against an opponent whose favorite - one of his favorite expressions is "You ain't seen nothin' yet." And he's right. We ain't seen nothin' yet. (applause) For eight years, for eight years this great nation has been wondering about Medicare reform, but we ain't seen nothin' yet. In the public education system there's an achievement gap. We long for reform, but for eight years we ain't seen nothin' yet. There's medical insurance issues -- people are uninsured who are working hard in America, we want reform, but for eight years we ain't seen nothin' yet.

GWEN IFILL: To drive the point home, Bush's final campaign day began this morning in Al Gore's home state of Tennessee, and is scheduled to end in Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas. His aides call this in-your-face-smash-mouth politics. And they say that they are increasingly confident that they can win big on Tuesday.

KARL ROVE: We win in a walk.

GWEN IFILL: Really. Why do you think?

KARL ROVE: I just think, look, the movement in the end in open races is to the party out of power, to the non-incumbent party. Since 1952, the late deciders have gone for the out of power party by a margin of 55 low to 72 high. And that's being borne out in this election. The last-minute movement is to Governor Bush.

GWEN IFILL: Bush ends his campaign at home in Austin, Texas, where he's counting on a raucous victory party Tuesday night.

JIM LEHRER: A small correction for the record. George Bush is older than his brother, Jeb.

JIM LEHRER: And now back to Mark Shields and Paul Gigot. Paul, what is your final campaign take on George W. Bush?

PAUL GIGOT: I think he certainly wins the most improved candidate award of the two of them. I mean, this is not the George Bush of the New Hampshire primary, sort of unsure of himself, content free. He's really improved. I mean, he's gotten much, much better as a candidate, and he seems to have his paces down. He's much more comfortable on stage making that wholesale message. He was always good on one-on-one in person with people, but he's much more comfortable on a stage making his argument, and here you see him at the end of the campaign, driving pretty much the same messages he had at the beginning of the campaign, or at least they thought they'd have at the beginning of the campaign: Character and trust, and one thing they've elaborated a little more here in the final month and a half is the size and scope of government. And he's driving those messages quite clearly.

JIM LEHRER: Mark, what do you think?

MARK SHIELDS: Optimistic, upbeat. If George Bush wins, it will be the curse of every political pundit and reporter who's covered this race, because he will have won because of the debates. If there was one thing we were sure of was that Al Gore was going to win the debates and George Bush was going to duck them, Jim.

JIM LEHRER: Why do you say the debates?

MARK SHIELDS: Because the race going into the debates, which Bush's campaign gave the strong indication they wanted to limit in scope and number and exposure and audience, he was behind. And he came out of the debates three weeks later ahead. So I mean, I think, you know, without being Sherlock Holmes you can look at it and say.

JIM LEHRER: You don't even have to be a pundit to figure that out.

PAUL GIGOT: It helps if you're not.

MARK SHIELDS: If he doesn't make it, I think they'll look back and a say a couple of things. One is a tactical decision, and that one is going to California. I mean, he spent two days of last week in California. Dick Cheney spent the last week in California. If he loses in a close race, Karl Rove never should have said that to Gwen Ifill or anybody else's campaign, we'll win in a walk because there's been about that last week -- you asked about Gore's last week -- there's been a certain bandwagon psychology: We're winning, we're confident, you better get on board; there's been a little bit of that message taking a victory lap.

JIM LEHRER: Is that wrong?

MARK SHIELDS: I think it's wrong. I don't think it plays to his strength because when there's a smirk or swagger in his presentation, it doesn't serve him well. I think Paul's right, he's gotten better as a candidate. But I'd say the other failure they made in this campaign was an interesting failure. They never filled him out intellectually. He never gave the commencement speech at Yale or Harvard. He never gave the speech at the Commonwealth Club at San Francisco. He never went overseas. If there is a question it would be that doubt about his preparation.

JIM LEHRER: What about Mark's point here in these last few days, did you see a swagger of confidence?

PAUL GIGOT: I saw a swagger in Karl Rove, chief strategist. I don't think I saw a swagger in George Bush. In fact, he's been urging people to get out to vote. You see confidence, no question about it, but I don't think I've detected a swagger. If he loses, Bush loses, I think the tactical mistake will be that they didn't address Social Security head on, they decided that they didn't need to do that.

JIM LEHRER: What's your reading on the drunk driving thing that everybody was talking about 48 hours ago and nobody seems to be talking about it today?

PAUL GIGOT: Seems to have melted away. Most of the polls I've seen show about 80% of the public thinks it's not going to affect their decision at all. And those that it will affect probably weren't going to vote for him anyway.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Again, don't go away.

JIM LEHRER: There is a possible election night wrinkle involving the Pacific Northwest. And Lee Hochberg of Public Broadcasting has the story.

LEE HOCHBERG: For most states, tomorrow's the end of the road for this election. But for Washington state, where Vice President Al Gore and Governor George Bush are virtually tied, it may be days before it's known who won there. That's because Washington, like neighboring Oregon, has aggressively embraced voting by mail. Half of Washington voters are expected to mail their ballots, but they don't need to be postmarked until tomorrow. So election officials say it may be several days before 900,000 of them-- one-third of the state's expected vote total-- are even processed, and several days more before they're all counted. Bob Bruce manages elections for King County, which includes Seattle.

BOB BRUCE: We won't have all of our ballots in-- that is 90% of them in-until probably this Friday, which means that in a very, very close race, we may not have the ballots counted to give you a significant outcome until next week.

LEE HOCHBERG: Legally, the state has up to 15 days to count the ballots, so it could take that long to know which presidential candidate got the state's 11 electoral votes. In 1996, late counting caused a problem in a congressional race.

SPOKESPERSON: They counted another 5,000 votes this morning. They'll count another bunch tomorrow morning and tomorrow afternoon.

LEE HOCHBERG: A Democratic candidate for Washington's third district congressional seat seemed like a winner on election night, but when mail-in ballots were finally tabulated 15 days later, the Republican won. This year, there should be even more late votes because of a lengthy and complex ballot with six initiatives, a high-profile neck-and-neck Senate race, and Green Party nominee Ralph Nader.

RALPH NADER: Its only the Nader/Laduke candidacy that's carrying that reform torch steadfastly all the way through November and beyond! ( Cheers and applause )

LEE HOCHBERG: Washington State, and especially Seattle, where Nader rallied supporters last week, is a Nader stronghold. With Gore and Bush in a near dead heat, liberal voters are still debating if votes for Nader will cripple Gore and aid in a Bush victory.

SPOKESPERSON: You can argue and argue and argue, but the baseline is this: You vote for the person you believe in or you don't.

SPOKESMAN: You vote to win an election...

SPOKESMAN: That's a trap!

LEE HOCHBERG: Many Nader supporters say they will mail their ballots at the last possible minute, waiting to see if voting for Gore instead might make a difference in defeating Bush.

SPOKESPERSON: I'll be looking at the polls and be looking at what happened on the East Coast, and looking at how close they're reporting the polls to be here in Washington also. I guess I'll be looking at that.

SPOKESMAN: Just volunteer here, looking to make sure you got your absentee ballot in the mail.

LEE HOCHBERG: Because so many are voting by mail, the major parties have changed tactics to court votes. In recent state elections Democratic candidates lost 2 to 3 percentage points when late ballots were tallied. This year, the Democratic Party convinced 75,000 Washingtonians, who sometimes vote Democrat, to vote-by-mail. Volunteers are calling them now to make sure they return their ballots.

SPOKESMAN: The election is very close, so we certainly encourage you to vote Democratic.

LEE HOCHBERG: U.S. Senator Patty Murray co-chairs the state Gore campaign.

SEN. PATTY MURRAY: We believe we're going to see the absentee ballots come in in favor of the Democratic candidates, and that will favor Al Gore.

LEE HOCHBERG: State Republicans, who've targeted mail-in voters for years, say they've gotten ballots out to parts of their base: Gun rights and property rights groups.

SPOKESMAN: It is still an advantage Republican, because we have not only pioneered the program, we've expanded it and increased it in the intervening last couple of years.

LEE HOCHBERG: In neighboring Oregon, vote-by-mail is so popular that this election was done almost entirely that way, except for a few token polling places. But unlike Washington, Oregon expects no delays. That's because ballots must be in election offices by 8:00 P.M. tomorrow. The state suggested that ballots be mailed by last Thursday, but that early mailing meant the election results came in a little early. And developments after Thursday, like the report of Bush's 1976 DUI infraction, remained unknown to voters. The state maintains voters had sufficient time to size up the candidates. Secretary of State Bill Bradbury.

BILL BRADBURY: I think anybody who's been paying attention can really understand the fundamental differences between Al Gore and George Bush, and there's not going to be anything significant revealed in the final two days that would change a lot of people's votes.

LEE HOCHBERG: Election officials in both northwest states say despite the problems, the delays, and deadlines, the convenience vote-by-mail adds and the costs to the state it reduces will induce more states and voters to use it in future elections.

FOCUS - VOTE COUNTING

JIM LEHRER: And to Margaret Warner.

MARGARET WARNER: Now, a blueprint for how election night will unfold from East to West. We hear from three veteran political reporters who have been with us periodically during the fall campaign: David Brooks of the "Weekly Standard," David Broder of the "Washington Post," and Tom Oliphant of the "Boston Globe."

All right, David Broder, walk us through the early hours of tomorrow night. What will be our earliest indications of how the night is shaping up?

DAVID BRODER: Well, in the presidential race, I'd watch a couple of states: West Virginia, which has been traditionally Democratic, but where Bush has been leading in the most recent polls, and the state of Maine, which, again has gone Democratic the last two elections, but again very close election. I think if those two small states both break in the same direction, it may give us early clue.

MARGARET WARNER: Tom, what would you add to that?

TOM OLIPHANT: I'd try to push the hour back a little bit to focus on the period of when the returns are just a trickle to see if one can find a clue. Kentucky, 6 PM pre-election polls Bush by about 10 points, does he deliver or not as the state is called? And secondly, at 7 o'clock we get two battlegrounds, a little one, New Hampshire, famous for independent voters, but much more importantly, enormously importantly, the state of Florida closes. And the question you want to ask at the beginning right after 7:00 is: is this close? Does it stay on the board for a couple of hours without a trend -- in which case the country is probably close.

MARGARET WARNER: Tom, you mentioned Florida. Let me ask you this. In Florida we're told-- there are a few that aren't going to be announced -- closed until 8:00. When a network projects a winner what's that based on, when do they do it?

TOM OLIPHANT: For a state like Kentucky when there's a polling advantage for one side, it won't take a smattering of precincts, maybe a bellwether county for a network desk to call the state for one candidate or the other. I've been told, however, for the

-real battleground states, the exit polls may not be much help, because they may be so close they're inside the margin of error, in which case they will use some precincts, some counties, oh, blue-collar counties like Macomb or suburban counties like Oakland and Michigan that have traditionally been an indication one way or another. That's the primary basis for the projection.

MARGARET WARNER: David Brooks, let me mention the seven states that by 8 PM definitely will have closed: Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, these are the battlegrounds, Maine, and Delaware, West Virginia and Tennessee. By that time will we have a pretty good idea?

DAVID BROOKS: We'll have a pretty good idea from Florida. I've got my own little state. They got to tout their little states; mine is New Hampshire -- for two reasons: One, it's got two overlapping groups of people who I think are important. First the McCainiacs, who supported in the primary, who didn't show up in the polls before primary day, at least in the number; and the second are the office park people. There's been an explosion of office parks around the country with a new sort of lifestyle, people living in home little town home communities in the little ex urbs, and those people, we don't have any idea how they vote because ten years ago when the census was done there really weren't this number of people. They're all over New Hampshire, and this little state which the Democrats carried by 12% four years ago I think is a good bellwether.

MARGARET WARNER: David Broder, how soon will we know how much impact Ralph Nader is having?

DAVID BRODER: Well, the states where Nader is expected to have his biggest impact tend to be mostly in the Midwest and the far West: Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and those of course are late-reporting states. So we may not be able to measure Nader very accurately for well into the evening.

MARGARET WARNER: Tom?

TOM OLIPHANT: Yes, one thing I'd add to what Dave Broder just said is we've mentioned now Maine, tradition of independent voting, and Wisconsin. And I think as the votes pile up between 8:00 and 10:00, if people watch Nader's vote total, if he's around five, you know he's trouble for Gore. From seven up he becomes poison. So the trick is to perhaps not watch who's winning a state, a battleground state, see if Nader gets to five or seven or if he's below five.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. So, David Brooks, what will tell us if it's going to be a long night?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I suppose you got still got to look at the big three: Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and they report relatively early. It could be forever before we know those three. Then you go into California, my dream fantasy is that the Democrats, that Gore wins those big three, he thinks he's got the White House and suddenly California comes in and surprises us all. It really would be a shocking surprise and goes for Bush and then we've got the topsy-turvy election.

MARGARET WARNER: So what is the scenario for the election, David Broder, going all the way to Oregon and Washington, for example, and California?

DAVID BRODER: Well, if the same candidates do not-- if the same candidate fails to win Florida and Michigan, I think we're in for a long night. Missouri could be, Pennsylvania, those two would give us a little further clue, but I think basically if we don't see the same person winning Florida and Michigan, which come in pretty early, we're going to be around for a long time.

MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree with that, Tom?

TOM OLIPHANT: The only thing that I'd add is you might get an early indication if Gore were to take Pennsylvania fairly early in the evening, along with Iowa, that would probably be a sign early that this is going to take a long time.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Finally, let's look at these electorate college scenarios that everyone is spinning. I'll start with you, David Brooks. First of all, explain to people having studied this how would it be possible and what's a plausible scenario for one candidate winning the popular vote, but the other candidate winning the presidency, winning the electoral college?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, the plausible scenario is that it is most likely that George Bush racks up big numbers in the South. So he wins a few states by huge numbers, which translate nationally into a big win, say it's 49%, say it's 47%. But he doesn't win a lot of states, at least the states with the key electoral votes - these three we keep talking about ---- Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania being central among them. So he wins some states by a lot but doesn't win a diversity of states, and so the diversity of states kicks in and they give the electoral vote to Gore. And that's the most likely scenario where we start talking about that extremely painful institution.

MARGARET WARNER: Do you consider that plausible, David Broder?

DAVID BRODER: It's unlikely because, as you know, the electoral college system favors small population states. And you just put down a list of the smallest population states, most of those are going to be in the Bush column.

MARGARET WARNER: And Tom, first of all comment on that scenario, but also the other scenario people are sketching is somehow it comes up to be a tie, 269 electoral votes to 269. Is that at all plausible given where the candidates are strong right now?

TOM OLIPHANT: First of all, on the more plausible of the implausible scenarios, I think Florida makes it very unlikely that we will have a minority President. But as to 269-269, you know, there's a game you can play on the computer now, where you move states around, and I would rather play chess with a grand master than try to make this thing come out 269.

MARGARET WARNER: Would you agree with that, David?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes, it's sort of electoral weenie heaven, people spend their life thinking about this stuff, but it's hard to imagine.

MARGARET WARNER: David, you, too?

DAVID BRODER: No, of all the things that might happen, that's the least possible.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, thank you all three. Stay right there, thank you.

JIM LEHRER: Now some final thoughts here and to bring Mark Shields and Paul Gigot back into it with David, David and Tom. Mark, starting with you, keeping in mind that we don't know the result yet, how do you think this campaign will be remember ed or should be remembered in your opinion?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, in spite of Vice President Gore's statement earlier in the show that we'll tell our grandchildren about the campaign, I don't think many people will be telling their grandchildren. Jim, it was a campaign that was devoid of any poetry. It was a campaign where sacrifice was never whispered. There was no mention of duty, of what any of us owes to our country, to our community. There was no call for any sacrifice from either candidate. It was a campaign about interest. George Bush talked about values, but it was basically about "this is your interest. You want it, you got it." In that sense, I think both of them missed a marvelous opportunity at a time of great prosperity to touch what is really in good in the American people and to summon us to a little bit higher level.

JIM LEHRER: David Broder?

DAVID BRODER: I have to disagree with Mark. I mean, these are not times that call for great emotion or passion or even great idealism. And what I think we saw here, with at least three candidates-- - Ralph Nader, George Bush, and Al Gore-- was three men who made the best possible cases from their own perspectives. I think if the voters do as well as these candidates, we'll have a good election.

JIM LEHRER: Tom Oliphant?

TOM OLIPHANT: I think David Broder is on to something here. I believe this election will be remembered as not an atypical open White House election without an incumbent, where two very powerful historical trends kind of bumped into each other. One, it's so hard for a sitting Vice President to get elected President. We kick them all over the lot every time this happens. And secondly, it's almost unheard of for the out party to win in prosperous times. This is not a unique situation, but it's only happened three times in the last 32 years.

JIM LEHRER: Paul Gigot?

PAUL GIGOT: I'm in the Broder-Oliphant camp on this one. I think it's been a pretty good campaign. I think the voters got a good sense of the issues on all sides, a good sense of the personalities of the candidates. Both I thought did a pretty good job of articulating their positions, certainly better than on the Republican side, since this happened in a long time, maybe since 1980. If Bush wins, I think it will be remembered, though, for how Bush persuaded a contented country that it wanted change, because 3.9% unemployment, you don't really... as Tom said, it's very hard to make the argument to change Presidents when you have kind of a fundamental.

JIM LEHRER: David Brooks.

DAVID BROOKS: I'm onto Mark Shields, he cannot stand the smallness of this election. Watching the whole race has reminded of sort of the ad campaigns for the cellular phone company rate plans; you know, my plan gives you more choices; my plan gives you free prescription drugs on weekends and holidays. It's just the smallness of the consumer orientation of the election. And, really, the two moments that shall stand out to me are the McCain moment and the Lieberman moment. Those are the two surprising things that happened. They were both passionate moments, one having to do with patriotism, one having to do with faith. And that was a sort of politics which was utterly missing from really the main characters of the campaign.

JIM LEHRER: Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: Let me associate myself totally with Mr. Brooks' remarks and add that since John McCain... I couldn't disagree more strenuously with David Broder whom I have unlimited respect for...since John McCain left the race, I defy him or anybody else to any time when any candidate stood before a group, other than Ralph Nader, and told that group anything they didn't want to hear, when they said no to any interest or any organized group - I mean, that's what this campaign has been about.

JIM LEHRER: David?

DAVID BRODER: I think when Governor Bush said... it was difficult for him that he had done something really wrong and was apologetic and having gone to Bob Jones University without repudiating the anti-Catholicism that has come out of that campus, I thought that was a pretty good moment.

JIM LEHRER: Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: David, I just have to say that it was bowing to pressure that there are a lot more Catholics in the United States whose votes he was seeking than there were alumni or fallen alumni of Bob Jones University.

JIM LEHRER: Tom, do you have any magic moments?

TOM OLIPHANT: Well, actually, I always look for a moment that tells me it's time to end this thing. And I was in an ironworkers hall Saturday night, "get out the vote" meeting, and the karaoke came on. And I had to watch the Governor of New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen and her husband Billy doing "I've Got You, Babe." ( Laughter ) And as they butchered that song, I said to myself, "time to stop."

JIM LEHRER: Do you have a moment, David Brooks?

DAVID BROOKS: Not quite as romantic and tearful as that one, but I'd just like to go back to the Broder/Shields feud here. It's not only that they do something unpopular, but it's the questions that weren't asked. America is not just Belgium floating off in the middle of country. We're a superpower. Where does America stand in the 21st century? Where should America's power be exercised? It seems to me the larger questions of what our national identity is-- what our greatness is - issues like immigration, globalization-- those larger issues struck me as being ignored in the debate really... important debate what about Social Security and tax reform, which is really a bidding war style debate.

JIM LEHRER: Paul was shaking his head throughout your remark, David.

PAUL GIGOT: This is what we hear at every single election: "The great issues weren't engaged somehow." I mean, in fact, greater issues were engaged this time than a long time. Social Security - when was the last time we actually had an argument over that? Republicans have fled from that since Barry Goldwater lost...

JIM LEHRER: The third rail you mean?

PAUL GIGOT: Nobody would touch that. But Bush did touch that. He put it on the table. The fact that you can argue that he didn't -- that he didn't say -- what the math in 2050 would look like. Nonetheless, he put

it on the table. I think that was "the" finest moment for Bush in the campaign.

JIM LEHRER: David Broder, was there a low moment for you, when you kind of had to cringe and turn away from this campaign for a moment?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes. I thought that at the Democratic Convention when we had the spectacle of entertainment-- not really entertainment, that's the wrong word-- of the President of the United States who had been served loyally by Al Gore for eight years and could barely bring himself to put in a plug for the Vice President, he was so busy reciting the triumphs of his own career. That to me was not a very fine moment.

JIM LEHRER: Well, on David Broder's low moment, we will leave it there. Thank you all five very much.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: And, again, the non-political campaign news of this Monday: The Food and Drug Administration warned against using diet pills and cold remedies that contain the ingredient PPA. The FDA said it could cause bleeding in the brain. And in the Middle East, two Palestinians were killed -- 30 wounded in clashes with Israeli troops. A reminder that we'll have complete election coverage and analysis tomorrow night beginning at 10:00 PM Eastern Time on most PBS stations, and we hope you'll join us. Before that, of course, we'll see you online and again here at our regular time tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.