The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

MARGARET WARNER: Good evening. I'm Margaret Warner. Jim Lehrer is on vacation. On the NewsHour this New Year's Eve: Our summary of the news; then, updates on the recovery efforts in the region devastated by Sunday's tsunami, with a special focus on the youngest victims of the disaster; end-of- the-year analysis from NewsHour regulars Mark Shields and David Brooks; a report from Cambodia as it braces for trade law changes affecting its garment industry; and a remembrance of swing band leader Artie Shaw.

NEWS SUMMARY

MARGARET WARNER: The official death toll from the Asian tsunami neared 150,000 today, with officials in some countries acknowledging they may never know the true number. International relief was beginning to stream in, but the head of the U.N. Food program urged governments to provide more cargo aircraft and helicopters. And in a statement from his Crawford, Texas ranch, President Bush announced a ten-fold increase in U.S. Aid to $350 million. Kwame Holman has more on today's developments.

KWAME HOLMAN: The devastation in Indonesia's Aceh Province on Sumatra still is coming to light. This was Bandar Aceh earlier this year. This is the same view two days after the tsunami hit. At the United Nations in New York today, Secretary of State Colin Powell met with Secretary-General Kofi Annan to discuss the massive coordination effort in getting aid to the tsunami victims. Later Secretary Powell talked to reporters about the jump in the U.S. aid contribution.

COLIN POWELL: This tenfold increase is indicative of American generosity but it also is indicative of the need. The need is great. I also encourage all nations of world to reach deep and to make as significant contribution as able to because this is an unprecedented disaster.

KWAME HOLMAN: Other nations that have pledged contributions include Great Britain, $95 million; Sweden, $75 million; France, $57 million; Qatar, $25 million; and Singapore, $3 million. Secretary-General Annan said time was of the essence.

KOFI ANNAN: We're working and trying to move as quickly as we can. This initial phase where we have to save lives, where we have to get to the people as quickly as we can, this does not mean that we have forgotten the survivors, but the initial phase we are... it's a race against time.

KWAME HOLMAN: U.S. aid shipments arrived in Phuket, Thailand, today aboard a military transport from the Pacific Air Fleet, which is assisting in the relief efforts. In Galle, Sri Lanka, a hard-hit city, the World Food Program and UNICEF arrived with vital food and drinking water. In the rebel-held North, in the Tamil region, aid has arrived more slowly and local officials claimed the Sri Lankan government was ignoring their needs. The threat of disease is ever- present, as bodies still lie in rubble and stagnant, dirty water acts as a breeding ground for mosquitoes that can carry Dengue Fever. Back in this country, Americans made their way home from the stricken region. This Seattle family was on a boat off the coast of Thailand when the tsunami passed underneath. But as many as 2,000 Americans still remain on an unaccounted- for list. Some 3,500 Swedes are among the missing and more than 1,000 Germans.

MARGARET WARNER: New Year's gatherings across Asia and Europe were marked by prayers and mourning for victims of the tsunami. Sri Lankans observed midnight's passing with candle-lighting ceremonies. Indonesia cancelled fireworks displays. In Thailand 4,500 parties were scrapped. Many European capitals honored the dead with public moments of silence. In Paris, trees along the Champs Elysees were draped in black. We'll have much more on the tsunami fallout right after the News Summary. There was no New Year's lull in Iraq today. U.S. troops launched a massive raid that rounded up nearly 50 suspected insurgents. The action was launched 45 miles north of Baghdad. The U.S. Military gave no details; 30 miles farther North, a suicide car bomb killed seven Iraqis, including five national guardsmen. Outside Fallujah, another national guardsman was found shot dead with a note warning, "This is the fate awaiting anyone who collaborates with the occupier." And in Samarra, U.S. troops came under attack but suffered no casualties. 70 U.S. troops have died in the month just ended, roughly half the number in November. Since the war began in March 2003, 1,328 Americans have died, mostly in combat. There are no official figures on Iraqi military and civilian casualties, but estimates run well over 10,000. The Justice Department has issued a new definition of what constitutes torture in interrogations. The memo, released late yesterday, says unlawful torture may include acts that fall short of the narrow guideline issued in 2002. That defined torture as causing a level of pain associated with "serious physical injury, such as organ failure, impairment of bodily function or even death." That policy had been criticized by human rights groups for opening the way to prisoner abuse in Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The new memo also drops the claim from the 2002 guidelines that a president could override U.S. anti-torture laws during wartime. At least 175 people are dead in Buenos Aires, Argentina, after a nightclub fire last night. Most of the victims were teenagers. Some 4,000 youngsters were packed into the club. And more than 700 were injured. Relatives lined sidewalks and parking lots this morning searching for loved ones. Officials said a flare thrown by one of the revelers sparked a blaze that quickly spread through the club. Concert goers reported emergency exits were locked and many were crushed in the stampede to escape. An Israeli missile killed two Palestinian militants in southern Gaza today. 12 Palestinians in the Khan Younis refugee camp have now been killed since Israeli forces launched a raid there earlier this week. Israel said the operation is aimed at halting missile strikes on nearby Jewish settlements. Palestinian officials called the Israeli move an "escalation" that was "seriously undermining" the Palestinian presidential election set for Jan. 9. Sudan's government signed a ceasefire with southern Sudanese rebels today. It opens the way for a peace deal that would end Africa's longest-running civil war. The draft peace accord, which U.N. officials hope will be signed next month, calls for power-sharing between the government and the rebels for six years, followed by a referendum on secession in the South. Today's agreement does not affect the separate conflict in Sudan's western Darfur region. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 17 points to close at 10,783. The NASDAQ fell almost three points, to close at 2175. For the week, the Dow fell 44 points. The NASDAQ rose 14 points. For the year, the Dow was up 3 percent. The NASDAQ ended the year up almost 9 percent. That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to: The post-tsunami fallout; the youngest disaster victims; Shields and Brooks; a big change for the garment business; and remembering Artie Shaw.

UPDATE - TSUNAMI DISASTER

MARGARET WARNER: We begin our coverage of the tsunami's aftermath with three reports from the region. Dan Rivers, of Independent Television News, has the latest from Bandar Aceh, on the Indonesian island of Sumatra.

DAN RIVERS: New Year's Eve, Bandar Aceh, it's famous mosque shrouded in smoke, the clock struck at 8:30, the time, the date, the year that Indonesia will never forget. The army has started to clear this central square, determined they will reclaim this city. But 100 feet away, there's still untouched horror. We've seen so many bodies here but this is the only one we've seen having any sort of funeral rites performed on it. Hundreds and hundreds of other people, thousands, tens of thousands have simply been scooped up by diggers and dumped in mass graves. Out of town, refugees are flooding into makeshift camps, chaotic, squalid, and for survivors this is the only option. This is how they wash up here. Water is too precious to throw away. There are fears of a measles outbreak among the children; barely any are inoculated. They are surviving on rice donated by locals. Everybody has a story to tell. Huseran survived the tsunami by climbing a tree. His three children are dead. So is his wife and his two brothers.

MAN (translated): I went to find my family. I looked for 12 hours but couldn't see anyone. But there were a lot of dead bodies.

DAN RIVERS: The missing stare out from posters scanned by the desperate trying to find their loved ones. We took one man from the camp back to his village. Ewan is a fireman. He was called out to put out a house fire. It meant he lived. But his wife, his sons, his daughters, his three sisters, and two brothers all died.

MAN (translated): I just can't say anything. I lost everything I have. I don't know how I feel.

DAN RIVERS: People like Ewan need help fast. They have nothing but profound trauma.

MARGARET WARNER: Now, coping with the impact of the tsunami on Thailand's coast. Ian Williams of Independent Television News reports from the islands of Phuket and Koh Phi Phi.

IWAN WILLIAMS: The tsunami appears to have struck differently in the Phi Phi Islands, where hundreds are thought to have died. We flew there today with the army, the largest island is shaped like a bow tie, the mountainous wings separated by a flat, narrow strip of land, an apparently protected cove on either side. But some eyewitnesses say the waves wrapped themselves around the island, hitting the narrow strip from both sides and devastating this, the most densely populated part. It's been five days since the tsunami struck, but rescue workers are still finding bodies here on what was a particularly popular destination for British tourists. During our 20 minute stopover, we saw six bodies taken away. This narrow strip of Phi Phi Island between the two bays was a maze of alley ways containing bars, restaurants and hotels. Now this is all that remains. Some Thai news reports claim poor and haphazard building regulations, frequently flouted, were in part to blame for the high number of deaths, the only buildings still standing on this once bustling strip, a couple of the more robust hotels. Also in the air today, Thailand's deputy prime minister inspecting the damage.

IAN WILLIAMS: Is there sufficient support from overseas? Do you need more help?

SUWAT LIPTANPANLOP: We need technical more than money. We need technical more than money. We have money but sometimes we need experts for identification, some expert.

IAN WILLIAMS: So you need more experts.

SUWAT LIPTANPANLOP: Yes, more experts.

IAN WILLIAMS: Forensic teams from across the world have now arrived in southern Thailand. This group from Finland taking DNA samples in an effort to identify rapidly decomposing bodies. A team of British policemen is also now in Phuket. Some of the Thai victims of the disaster were today buried in mass graves. The total number of dead now stands at more than four and a half thousand more than half of them foreign tourists. More than 6,000 are still missing.

MARGARET WARNER: As many as 2,000 Americans believed to be in the area when the tsunami hit have still not been accounted for. Now, a look at recovery efforts in the hard-hit island nation of Sri Lanka. ITN's Philip Reay Smith filed this report from the country's capital, Colombo.

PHILIP REAY SMITH: It's taken days to get here, but now it's arriving from around the world; from Canada, water purification caches and plastic sheeting -- from Poland, medical supplies. In fact, today Colombo's airport saw a traffic jam of planes delivering international aid. But it's a long road to the people who need it. 55,000 in the southern town of Galle last everything they had and when the first international aid finally got through, it created long cues. So many feed help, so few are actually receiving it. And in the North, they need it desperately. Aid here is non-existent. In the hospital, the first UNICEF workers on the scene found children from an orphanage that was swept away. More than 40 died, as did all the staff; children who already have no parents left with nothing. And so New Year's Eve in Sri Lanka usually a time of celebration was officially declared a day of mourning. This small island has lost more than 28,000 souls and a million are homeless. The only thing many people can do here is pray that in the New Year they'll be able to begin the long process of rebuilding and recovery.

FOCUS - LITTLE VICTIMS

MARGARET WARNER: Now, a closer look at the youngest victims of the disaster, and to Terence Smith.

TERENCE SMITH: Of the thousands of heartrending images to come from the tsunami-devastated areas this week, perhaps the most affecting are those of the smallest victims, those who died and those left behind, injured, orphaned, lost. United Nations officials gave a crushing estimate of the numbers of children affected.

JAN EGELAND: We see one-third of the victims being children. And this is going through the dead, the wounded, and also those affected. Actually, it would be more than a third of those who are affected in general. But of the casualties, it's around one-third.

TERENCE SMITH: Why so many? Birth rates in the affected countries-- all considered underdeveloped-- are among the highest in the world. 35 percent of Indonesia's population is under the age of 18. The figure is 39 percent in India, 35 percent in Sri Lanka. Another factor in the giant toll: Their very size made many children easy prey to the rushing, rising waters of the tsunami; they lacked the strength to hold on. As aid agencies and governments now try to prevent the onset of disease, particular attention must be paid to children who, along with the elderly, are the most vulnerable to illness and have their own nutrition needs. The key component of that drive will be the provision of safe food and potable water, especially for children unaccustomed to fending for themselves. Another huge job: Reuniting families that have been broken up and finding at least temporary shelter and care for the thousands of children whose parents are dead or missing.

TERENCE SMITH: For more, we turn to Carol Bellamy, executive director of UNICEF, the United Nations Children's Fund, and Christine Knudsen, a child protection specialist for Save the Children, a humanitarian relief organization. Welcome to you both.

Carol Bellamy, when you are confronted with a disaster of this magnitude, what are your priorities? What are the most urgent things you ear trying to get done first?

CAROL BELLAMY: Well, I'm not sure we've been confronted with a catastrophe as great as this but clearly trying to keep the children who are alive, alive, as was just reported, access to clean water, making sure they've been immunized against diseases that could kill or cripple, making sure that if there are family members who could take care of them, even if they are not their parents, they are reunited with the family members; dealing with the problem of what I call still water, which may be as bad as the rushing water. That's the water that is contaminated, that could bring malaria, diarrhea. With diarrhea could come dehydration and death. So water, family, medicine.

TERENCE SMITH: So Christine Knudsen, keeping them alive?

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: Yes.

TERENCE SMITH: Really as basic as that?

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: In many case what is we're trying to do at this point is ensure there's not further loss of life. Many of these children, especially the youngest ones, are really vulnerable, as carol was mentioning, to water-borne diseases, to diarrhea, to respiratory infections and we need to make sure they have the food, the shelter, and the clean water that they need to survive as well as the caregivers who can provide that for them.

TERENCE SMITH: Carol Bellamy, what are the obstacles you're encountering at this early stage in this whole process? Is it getting supplies and people there? Is it getting it out into the provinces? What are... what are the problems?

CAROL BELLAMY: Well, I think many of us, UNICEF included, have stocks on hand to do the immediate response. But certainly the scale of this is so large that we're going to confront whether there are available stocks from water purification to blankets to other needs. Second -- and this is very important -- we've, as other humanitarian agencies, we've been able to bring materials in. UNICEF has programs in all of these countries, so we had materials in. But getting them to the people, the roads are out, the infrastructure is down, the ability to just find out where people are is a very difficult issue. And it's even more difficult when you're dealing with children. So lodge incompetents and getting honestly from the capitals to the people is going to be the biggest problem. What isn't the problem... sorry.

TERENCE SMITH: Go ahead. No, please.

CAROL BELLAMY: I was going to say, having the resources is always a problem but I wanted to say that the world community has been enormously generous. They need to continue to be, but I want to thank the world community for the generosity so far.

TERENCE SMITH: Christine Knudsen, when you have a problem of getting to the... where things are most needed, what do you do? Do you turn to the local government? Are they any n any position to help you? Do you expect outsiders to come in and get you there? How do you do it?

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: Well, the way we're going about it right now in Indonesia, for instance, is that we are working with our partners. Save the Children has been in Bandar Aceh since the late '70s.

TERENCE SMITH: And you've been there yourself.

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: I was there a few years ago and I'm sure I'm going to be heading back again in the next few days. But we know the communities there and we're able to work with communities to mobilize what we have on stock, to get materials in as quickly as we can. I think our first stocks were arriving just this evening. But we did have a few things in reserve. In Sri Lanka, we had luckily some high-protein biscuits we've been able to distribute for the smallest children. And that's going to help them get through until we can get just the supplies that we need.

TERENCE SMITH: Carol Bellamy, we talked about keeping these children alive. Do they have special needs either in terms of diet or nutrition to sustain themselves through what is obviously an incredibly difficult period?

CAROL BELLAMY: Well, they do have some special needs. She just mentioned the need for high-protein biscuits. That's something that both Save and UNICEF -- and we work together, we're very good partners -- provide something like that. Water is key, again because the lack of clean water can lead to diarrhea and die hydration, which can hit children, it hits adults as well but hits children, much greater degree. Partly having a caregiver, I mean, we're talking about special needs, one of the needs is having the caregiver, whether it's an extended family member which is, again, a reason why we're going to as quickly as possible try and connect the children back into some family member because that's the best way to take care of them.

TERENCE SMITH: Well, how do you do that, Christine Knudsen? Do you... how do you reunify families that have been scattered under this situation, particularly if they're not intact?

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: Well, one of the things about responding in a natural disaster like this is that communities largely are not too far dislocated. So you'll have villagers who might recognize children on their own and care for them until we're able to find parents for them. That's another thing that we're doing very strongly at this point in partnership with the local government, with other agencies, with UNICEF and many, many other actors, making sure we have a place where people can bring children to say "these children are looking for their parents;" to have parents who can come and say ""we're looking for our children" and to bring those two together. But at this first initial phase we depend on communities to be the chain of information. They're the ones who recognize the children; they know where they come from. They know where they need to be; where their families might be. They might have news. They might know where an aunt or uncle is and we rely on that through the communities we work with.

TERENCE SMITH: Carol Bellamy, there were some reports of families who lost their children offering to either adopt or care for other children who may themselves be orphaned. I wonder, (a), if you have heard of that and, (b), if it causes any concern.

CAROL BELLAMY: Well, I know there's a desire to help as much as possible. You know, these countries are countries where there's a pretty big extended family tradition. And we all believe, I think, that the best place for a child in the first place is with a family member, so clearly some children ultimately will be adopted in their countries or even perhaps outside of their countries. But an enormous effort has to first be put in place to find extended family members. This is really the best for the children.

TERENCE SMITH: And the children themselves, Christine Knudsen, do they have... they must have emotional needs at this point. I would assume they would have been terrified by what happened and perhaps still be terrified.

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: Some of the stories we saw, the adults were very, very traumatized by the events that have happened to them. For children it can be just so much worse. Everything familiar to them has been turned upside down literally in the last few days. One of my colleagues told me a story about a little girl who was afraid to walk across a puddle. She didn't know what was going to happen because of the water.

TERENCE SMITH: Because the water had been so violent.

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: The water had been so violent and she was used to water being a place of recreation and fun and relaxation and now it's turned and really attacked her whole way of life. What we need to do is establish some predictability, some familiarity, some activities that children can look forward to and know that they're going to be the same everyday, bring back a sense of normalcy and routine to their lives.

TERENCE SMITH: How do you do that sort of thing, Carol Bellamy? I mean, do you... you know, can you reopen schools in I can't imagine you can.

CAROL BELLAMY: But you may not reopen the building of the school, but actually, one of the best things you can do as quickly as possible is to get children back into some, as Christine said, normalcy. And so, for example, we have a program and, again, we work with many partners, called school in a box. It isn't the physical school but it's the materials and if you identify community members or teachers and the children have something to go to where they can play, perhaps they can draw pictures, they can feel that there is something that they remember, that makes a big difference in reducing... it won't make it all go away, but reducing some of this trauma.

TERENCE SMITH: I wonder, Christine Knudsen, what effect it has on a society. You referred to a community but even larger, a society, to lose so many of its children in an incident like this.

CHRISTINE KNUDSEN: I think it's too early to say exactly what that effect is going to be. But we know it's going to be long term. We know it's going to be a lasting effect. Parents who have lost their children, children who have lost their parents, all of these young people who have also lost what their future was going to be or what they thought it was going to be. It's too early to know what's going to happen. But the critical thing here is that we are getting children into activities that are going to help them to build their futures again, hopefully in a very positive way. But it's a long haul investment, and it's a long haul development that we need to be looking at here. I think, you know, so much is looking at what happens in the next few hours and days to prevent further loss of life. But we also need to look at what happens next year and the year down the road when schools are back, when parents and families have been reunited and are trying to build their lives again. How can we continue to support that?

TERENCE SMITH: What are your thoughts on that, Carol Bellamy, the longer lasting impact? I mean, this, in effect, has punch add hole in some of these societies and there are people of certain ages simply missing.

CAROL BELLAMY: It has punched a hole, but I couldn't agree more with Christine that this... all of just to approach this not only in the immediacy but look to the future. These communities will have a future. They've got to be rebuilt. The best place to start, actually, is with the young people and with the children. If they are given an opportunity... this disaster will never leave their minds but there really is an opportunity in the future and so, again, for this investment that the world community is making, they've got to be prepared to invest in the long run.

TERENCE SMITH: Carol Bellamy, Christine Knudsen, thank you both very much.

CAROL BELLAMY: Thank you.

MARGARET WARNER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: Shields and Brooks; Cambodia's garment industry; and big band leader Artie Shaw.

FOCUS - SHIELDS & BROOKS

MARGARET WARNER: Now, for our end-of- the-week and end-of-the-year analysis by Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times columnist David Brooks. Welcome to our last one for the year. Every disaster has political fallout and this one, Mark, certainly did for the Bush administration. Do you think the criticism has been fair or has it just been politics?

MARK SHIELDS: It's been both, but I think, Margaret, the... we recall how comforting it was to us and what a consolation after Sept. 11 when people all around the world quickly said... offered their condolences, offered their support. The headline "Today We Are All Americans" and it's understandable that certainly people as bereft as the people who were the victims of the tsunami. And just to put in the some perspective, I mean, we lost 3,000 people on Sept. 11. The loss comparable today in Indonesia in United States terms would be 120,000 Americans. In Sri Lanka it would be 306,000 Americans. And was it political?

MARGARET WARNER: I guess my question is do you think that the Bush administration was too slow off the mark to offer condolences and money?

MARK SHIELDS: Yes, we were. We were too slow of the mark; there's no question about it -- the fact that we've increased by 20-fold this past week our initial number. I mean, Margaret, Spain has 6 percent... GDP 6 percent as large as ours they offered twice as much as we did in the initial offering. We were like the storm. We were invisible at first and but then picked up speed. I think by the end of the week the United States was shouldering its responsibility. Individual contributions of the United States have been impressive from individual citizens. But what we do collectively is a statement of what we are as a people and what our values are as a people and we're moving... we have moved in the right direction now.

MARGARET WARNER: Yeah. But what do you think of... about the pace of the response and I want to ask you about something Sam Brownback, a Republican senator who was a bit critical of the early suggestion of $15 million, he said "Well, it was Christmas week, you have a cabinet in transition." What do you think was behind it? Why wasn't the president right out there?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I think that was essentially it. I've spoken to the people in the administration, they were on vacation. It took a few days to get ramped up. Was it important? I frankly... you know, this was one of the weeks when you want to leave punditry. There were 124,000 people dead. There are religious issues to think about, there are culture issues, there are scientific issues, there are all these aid issues that we just heard about in the last segment and we have a tit for tat political pedantic debate over whether the president should have left Crawford and gone to Washington. Who cares? It's not about us. And it's not about red and blue America or Republicans and Democrats. It's about something so much bigger. And yet in so many... already some of the pundits became a little... the normal political game. It was just the corrosiveness of political thinking. This was such a bigger story.

MARK SHIELDS: Margaret, I just have to add the White House was hardly blameless in this whole thing. When it was asked where the president was and why he had not and asked by Republicans as well as Democrats, the White House statement, official White House statement was "the president didn't want to make a symbolic statement about we feel your pain." Now, if that isn't just a cheap shot at Bill Clinton who's now been out of office I think by five years, you know, there is something about feeling and identifying with people's suffering and especially when it is the United States of America.

DAVID BROOKS: I agree with that. I wish they had done it more. It's a Muslim country with all that's going on in the world it would have been a great opportunity. But this is first of all the Bush administration that's doubled the foreign aid budget. This is a country which... where private citizens gave multiple times more than any other people on earth in private aid. We don't just have public aid in the country. We have the Gates Foundation, all these foundations; you go to Amazon.com today, millions of dollars being given out. We have a different tradition. If you look at our total donation in disaster relief and development aid, it's healthy. We got stuck in the stupid debate over stinginess over who was stingy. It took us longer than it should have. Believe me, compared to what's happening over there, it's trivial.

MARGARET WARNER: The president yesterday decided to send Secretary of State Powell, his brother Jeb Bush who has got some experience with disasters as governor of Florida to the region. Mark, do you think-- whether it's belated or not-- is this a significant opportunity for the United States and for the Bush administration internationally?

MARK SHIELDS: No question it is. And David made the point. I mean, this is a Muslim country and the idea of...

MARGARET WARNER: Parts of Indonesia, the idea of responding there to the suffering the day after Christmas and there's heavy symbolism all the way around. No question. But David's right, we have increased the budget in foreign aid. It was $10 billion in 2000. It's now $16 billion. But that aid increase has gone to Afghanistan and Iraq overwhelmingly. It has not been across the board development aid. It's been primarily directed and pigeon holes to Iraq and Afghanistan.

DAVID BROOKS: But there's aids, there's other things going on. There's the challenge accounts.

MARGARET WARNER: There are a lot of different things. But if you look at... what the Europeans like to say is well, the U.S. may give the most in gross terms but if you put in the per capita or percentage of GDP, we're the lowest. Here's my question, David: If you ask the American public how much of the U.S. budget goes to foreign aid, they say 10

percent or 20 percent. It's a quarter of one percent. I mean, is there something really unpopular about foreign aid here, more unpopular than in other countries?

DAVID BROOKS: Two separate issues. One, do Americans have a vastly overrated sense of how much we give in foreign aid? Yes. They have no sense of what a tiny part of the budget. But second... there are different ways to list our donations. In some we're 19th out of 21. But that's (a) because they don't take into account the fact that we give so much in private aid, so much more than anybody else. And they don't account in kind aid. They don't account sending our ships over in cases like this. So there's agent agency and we come in seventh or ninth. Not as great as it could be but not an outrage either.

MARGARET WARNER: Let's switch to the other big stories of this year, and I'll start with you, Mark. What do you think, looking back on 2004, is the one story that will have the most significant... lasting political significance, if there is such a thing?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, I mean, obviously President Bush's reelection is... has dominated the political scene of the year. And, you know, you can't take that away. I mean, that preoccupied the entire political world here and especially in time of war and the war on terrorism. I'd guess the story that bothers me the most is Abu Ghraib because I'm afraid it... for an awful lot of people in the world it creates the impression of theUnited States which I don't believe is a valid impression but where they have strong photographic evidence. And, I mean, to me that is the most unsettling permanent story of this year and because of... because we did it on our watch to people, again, who are overwhelmingly not of our faith.

MARGARET WARNER: What are your nominations for the stories or developments of most lasting impact?

DAVID BROOKS: To me, the transformation of the Middle East. It's really reaching the peak right now. If you talk to people just come back from Iraq or watch the Iraqi press, the insurgency is still strong and it may be gaining strength. So the bad guys are getting stronger. At the same time, you look at the Iraqi press and it's filled with democratic flowering. You look around the region, there's never been so much democratic reform bubbling up. There was a good story in the Times about Syria or somebody said Iraq is like a stone thrown in a pond. There are these ripples across Syria, across Egypt, across Saudi Arabia. So the bad things are getting more bad; the good things are getting more good. The stakes are just tremendously high. And a lot of the bad people understand how high the stakes are. And I have no clue how it will play out next year. But that development, both good and bad, that, to me, is going to shape the world for decades to come.

MARGARET WARNER: Political winners and losers. Let's alternate in the time we have left -- political winner.

DAVID BROOKS: My political expertise, since I'm trained at this, George Bush is more of a winner than John Kerry. I would say to avoid the totally obvious, Denny Hastert, Speaker of the House of Representatives for two reasons. One, because he now has a permanent Republican majority there, but second because the Congress has just become much more important than it was vis- -vis the White House, really beginning to assert themselves and Denny Hastert is a beloved man in the House, among House Republicans. So he's a big win they are year.

MARGARET WARNER: Big winner other than President Bush?

MARK SHIELDS: Big winner, I'd give you two. I'd give you Tom Kean and Lee Hamilton who by their judgment, example, maturity, the fact they were grown-ups.

MARGARET WARNER: Chairmen of the 9/11 Commission.

MARK SHIELDS: Chairmen of the 9/11 Commission that they showed mutual respect and mutual trust. They gave an example that Washington hadn't seen and it was so refreshing and not only did that, they accomplished and made an enormous difference. The other big winner I have to say was Karl Rove, who was absolutely right that the president could run as a wartime president and win even though the war was going disastrously. And that that was... that he could do so not by converting wayward democrats or reaching out to independents, but by galvanizing and energizing Republicans at a level never seen before. That was impressive.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Political losers. Your nominations?

DAVID BROOKS: Another winner having to do with Rove is the excerpts. We understand how many people who are out there. As for losers, George Soros didn't have a great year. But I would say campaign finance reform.

MARGARET WARNER: Explaining that George Soros put a lot of money into these Democratic 527 groups.

DAVID BROOKS: And he's got a lot left to solve his wounds. But campaign finance reform was passed. I have no clue what it did. I don't think it affected the election one way or the other. It changed the money flowing here and there but I really do not think it reshaped anything in part because, as we learned this year, having a lot of money doesn't necessarily guarantee much. You can waste a lot of money, too.

MARGARET WARNER: And the money always finds a route.

DAVID BROOKS: What happened this year was they put some barriers and the money found a route.

MARK SHIELDS: I could not disagree more. I think campaign finance was an enormous success. It brought more people in, it minimized the influence of big money. All the six-figure contributors whether corporate, labor, wealthy individuals found themselves essentially not players at the presidential... in the presidential race or in the Senate and congressional races. But I'd say the biggest loser, Margaret, is the Vietnam credential. We've had three presidential candidates, Bob Kerrey in 1992 is a Democrat, medal of honor winner. McCain, five and a half years of POW; in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 as a Democratic nominee; every one of them, the Vietnam experience has been used against them by their opponents and effectively. Bob Kerrey was accused of being a baby killer by other democratic operatives in 1992. John McCain, there were questions and more than questions, allegations, is his temperament because anybody that's been in that long. John Kerry, who went to Vietnam twice volunteered to do so, saw combat, killed people, his Vietnam experience held against him while, you know, George Bush who said he believed in the war, didn't want to go, chose not to go and signed a document to that effect and Cheney had other things to do were the beneficiaries in a strange way. I contrast that, if you would, to the civil war. Every Republican elected after 1865 had served in the civil war. The waving of the bloody shirt was the credential for the election. I wonder if anybody who's served in Vietnam however honorably will be elected president.

DAVID BROOKS: You know, one thing I noticed, when you talked about people, especially on the Democratic side, what they long for it was not the late '60s, it was the early '60s. It was John Kennedy. I think people hate the violence of the late '60s but long for the early '60s period.

MARGARET WARNER: David, Mark, thank you both and happy New Year. Happier New Year.

FOCUS - NEW GARMENTS

MARGARET WARNER: Now, how a big change in a global trade agreement may affect the economies of developing nations. The change takes effect tomorrow. Fred de Sam Lazaro of Twin Cities Public Television in Minnesota reports on how one country, Cambodia, is trying to prepare.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Cambodia is one of the word's poorest countries. It is still feeling the impact of the war in Southeast Asia and of genocide in the '70s that claimed up to two million lives, perhaps a fifth of the entire population. About eight years ago, Cambodia began a comeback, centered largely on making garments for the American and European markets. Clothing exports now bring in about 80 percent of Cambodia's export earnings. But all that could change beginning in January when a new free trade system takes effect. Jan. 1 will mark the end of an elaborate system of quotas, first designed to protect U.S. jobs but which also guaranteed Cambodia and other nations space on American clothing racks. Sebastien Teunissen is a business professor at the University of California Berkeley.

SEBASTIAN TEUNISSEN: It's not one quota per country. It's, in fact, one co-a for each type of garment. So there's quotas for socks, there's quotas for pants, shirts and so on. It's a very, very complex set of numbers. I think it's well over a thousand different limits when you look at the number of countries and garments involved.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The end of the quota system is welcome at retailers like San Francisco-based Gap. It imports a billion pieces of apparel from 50 countries each year for its Old Navy, Banana Republic, and Gap stores. Gap's Dan Henkle says quotas have complicated life for the company's buyers.

DAN HENKLE, Gap: You might have a product category that you... you would ideally like to place with one vendor, one factory. But maybe because of quota restrictions you have to split that order apart. And you might have 10 percent over here and 50 percent over here. And I think in a post-quota environment, you're going to see that we are going to be able to consolidate some of that... some of those orders and overall I think that will lead to greater efficiency.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: It is also expected to lead to major changes in where clothing is made. Over the past 40 years, the U.S. has set aside rack space for many developing nations from Mongolia to Lesotho to Cambodia. Experts say countries with large industrial bases and labor pools especially China, could now dominate. That could cost millions of jobs in the smaller nations. Jobs critical to most countries, says Professor Teunissen.

SEBASTIAN TEUNISSEN: It's not stated so obviously but it's considered in a way to be foreign aid. That is by granting quotas to less developed countries, you're giving them the opportunity to establish production facilities there, employ people, generate incomes, generate foreign exchange and it's viewed as therefore helping the economy of that particular country grow.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: With Cambodia U.S. officials used the quota system to address widespread concern over child labor and other abuses in factories overseas. In 1999, the U.S. offered Cambodia a deal. It would increase its imports of Cambodian garments; in exchange, Cambodia would have to improve working conditions in its factories, introduce a minimum wage, recognize unions and open its factories to international inspectors. Cambodia's commerce minister, Cham Prasidh, negotiated with the U.S. He says almost overnight a garment industry still in its infancy took off.

CHAM PRASIDH, Minister of Commerce, Cambodia: Since 1996 until this year, it's almost eight years the number of factories have grown from zero to over two hundred factories. Actually, they are employing about 235,000 workers.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: For 21-year-old Nou Yath and her 20-year-old sister, Nou Charya, factory work has meant escape from life at subsistence levels at street vendors.

NOU CHARYA: We make good money in the factory. We can make as much as $70 a month. We share our money with our mother and it allows our younger brother to attend school.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Life here is Spartan by any account. The sisters share a 100-square-foot room with two others. There's little margin for luxuries. $70 may seem meager, especially since it includes overtime pay, but it's still twice what an average civil servant earns in Cambodia. At the factory, these women -- and most workers are young women -- are guaranteed a minimum wage: $45 a month. They are represented by a union and work in a well-ventilated space. Factories that violate labor standards can lose their export licenses and the International Labor Organization-- a U.N. agency-- is free to visit unannounced. While it's hard to monitor all factories, the ILO's Ros Harvey is encouraged so far.

ROS HARVEY: We're seeing that basically child labor has effectively been eliminated from the industry. There's no forced labor. There is also, I think, the freedom to organize.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: And, she says, from all indications, the improvements do not cost the bottom line.

ROS HARVEY: We're finding that it's not a tradeoff. That you can improve working conditions and at the same time improve profitability, quality and productivity.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The problem is Cambodia's costs are still 25 percent higher than China's. Unlike China, Cambodia has to import its textiles and raw materials. The transportation system isn't as good. It's also slowed down by corruption and red tape in a business where timely deliveries are critical. On the top floors and in worker homes, there's great anxiety.

NOU CHIA (translated): We've heard rumors that they might be closing factories. We're really worried.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Plant closings would also dash the hopes of their 17-year-old sister who plans to find factory work when she comes of age. For young, uneducated women, there are few other places to find work. For many, commercial sex districts are a desperate last resort. For his part, Cambodia's commerce minister says his country can retain its customers, even get new ones by branding itself as the socially responsible place to buy garments.

CHAM PRASIDH: We try to develop a new image of Cambodia as a safe haven for the major brand names in the world. We guarantee that any garment or apparel that we produce from Cambodia are not from sweatshops.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: That's certainly attracted the Gap, which buys almost a third of all Cambodian garments. In the '90s, Gap was the target of protests over its alleged use of sweatshop suppliers.

PROTESTERS: Living wages we demand!

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Gap acknowledges there were and still are problems. It says it's working to police factory conditions. It has a staff of some 100 labor compliance inspectors. While cost is critical in choosing suppliers, the company says it also factors in social issues. So Dan Henkle, who is vice president of compliance, says in recognition of its progress, Gap will continue to do business in Cambodia.

DAN HENKLE: We are making an investment in this. And certainly if you're holding vendors accountable for paying overtime premiums and wages and so on and so forth, the appropriate wages, there's a cost associated with that, but you have to look at this in terms of the benefit as well, the benefits on productivity and quality and overall reliability.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Several other retailers who buy in Cambodia have said they plan to continue. The approach may also carry a positive marketing message, but UC Berkeley's Teunissen wonders how long the buyers can keep their pledge.

SEBASTIAN TEUNISSEN: In the short run, those are probably honest statements. But in the long run, the realities of the marketplace may force them to reconsider it. If the competitors have moved to China as their sole source of supply are able to undercut them in price, then they may have to do so as well.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: To make its clothing cheaper, Cambodian officials will soon ask the U.S. to add Cambodia to a list of African countries which are allowed to export goods to the U.S. without the tariffs normally charged to other nations, including China.

FOCUS - IN REMEMBRANCE

MARGARET WARNER: Finally tonight, remembering clarinetist and big band leader Artie Shaw, who died yesterday. The swing-era virtuoso sold more than 100 million records, including such hits as "Begin the Beguine," "Lady be Good", and "Stardust," before abruptly quitting the music business in 1954. During World War II, he enlisted in the Navy; then recruited other musicians to create a band that performed for allied troops. That part of his story was told by producer Ken Burns in his PBS series, "Jazz." Here is an excerpt, narrated by Keith David. (Band playing)

KEITH DAVID: Artie Shaw led a navy band that toured the South Pacific, playing in jungles so hot and humid that the pads on the saxophones rotted and horns had to be held together with rubber bands; 17 times they were bombed or strafed by Japanese planes. (Band playing)

ARTIE SHAW, Clarinet: There were times when it was really very moving. You'd play three notes and the whole audience was instantly roaring with you. They knew the record. And you got the feeling that you'd created a piece of durable Americana that was speaking to these people. I remember engagements on the "U.S.S. Saratoga," this huge carrier, and we were put on the flight deck, and we came down into this cavernous place where there were 3,000 men in dress uniforms. And a roar went up. (Cheers and applause) I'll tell you, you know, it really threw me. (Band playing) (cheers and applause) I couldn't believe what I was seeing or hearing. I felt something extraordinary. I was by that time inured to success and applause and all that -- you take that for granted after a while; you could put your finger out and say "now they're going to clap"-- but this was a whole different thing. These men were starved for something to remind them of home and whatever, mom and apple pie, and the music had that effect, I suppose. ( Band playing )

MARGARET WARNER: Artie Shaw's death came after years of declining health; he was 94 years old.

RECAP

MARGARET WARNER: Again, the major developments of the day: The death toll in the Asian tsunami climbed to 150,000. And the U.S. boosted its aid to the region to $350 million. A reminder, that Washington Week can be seen on most PBS stations later this evening. We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. I'm Margaret Warner. Thanks for being with us and have a Happy New Year. Good night.