The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, Governor Engler and Congressman Rangel debate the Republicans' 10% tax cut proposal; Betty Ann Bowser tells the healing story of Jasper, Texas; Margaret Warner updates the confrontation with Iraq; and poet laureate Robert Pinsky offers some post-impeachment poetry. It all follows our summary of the news this Tuesday.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: Violence erupted at Greek embassies and consulates across Europe today. Demonstrators accused Greece of allowing a Kurdish rebel to be captured and sent to Turkey on treason charges. We have more from Kevin Dunn of Independent Television News.

KEVIN DUNN, ITN: This is the man whose arrest prompted demonstrations, protests and sit-ins around the world. He is Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdish separatist movement, the PKK, and the most wanted man in Turkey, because for 14 years he has led the Kurds' fight for an independent homeland. The state they want to establish, Kurdistan, would straddle parts of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, all countries who are violently opposed to the Kurdish cause. In Greece, whose embassy in Kenya had initially sheltered Ocalan, several protesters set themselves alight in a violent protest at the Greek government's failure to protect the Kurdish leader. In Copenhagen, there was a similar demonstration, and a woman who set herself ablaze there was taken to the hospital. In Frankfurt, riot police used water canons to disperse exiled Kurds and their sympathizers. Demonstrators occupied Greek consulates across Germany. And in the Hague, protesters stormed the Greek ambassador's residence and took his wife and child hostage. Only in Ankara were there celebrations at the arrest of a man Turks see as a terrorist leader.

JIM LEHRER: In Washington, the State Department said it was very pleased with the capture. Reporters asked Spokesman James Foley if the United States played any role in the arrest.

JAMES FOLEY: The United States did not apprehend or transfer Ocalan or transport him to Turkey. In other words, US personnel did not participate in any of those actions that I just described. I mean, it is no secret our policy towards the whole Ocalan issue has been a very clear declaration on our part that he should be brought to justice. And we have had extensive diplomatic efforts that we have undertaken to bring him to justice.

JIM LEHRER: Iraqi Prime Minister Tariq Aziz spoke again today of the threat to hit air bases in Turkey, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. He said Iraq was not threatening its neighbors, only U.S. and British forces that launch attacks from those countries. He spoke at a news conference during a visit to Turkey.

TARIQ AZIZ: You are being threatened physically by military aircraft who enter your airspace and attack you. If you complain about that, is that a threat -- we are complaining about the real physical threat that's taking place against us from neighboring countries. This is the real situation.

JIM LEHRER: We'll have more on the Iraq confrontation later in the program tonight. American Airlines operations were nearly back to normal today. Only 23 of 2,200 daily flights were canceled because of sick pilots; 6,000 flights have been scrubbed since a pilots' sick-out started ten days ago over a pay dispute. A federal judge ordered them back to work. In Jasper, Texas, today, a white man went on trial for dragging a black man to death from the back of a truck. Prosecutors said in opening arguments, defendant John William King was a man full of hate. He's the first of three men to stand trial for the crime committed last June. We'll have more on this story later in the program tonight. First Lady Hillary Clinton said today she was considering running for the United States Senate from New York. In a written statement she said she would make a decision later this year. She said she was deeply gratified by the interest in her potential candidacy. There was more violence today in the former Soviet Republic of Uzbekistan. A bomb ripped through government headquarters in the now-independent nation's capital, Tashkent, followed by a shoot-out and five more explosions; 13 people were killed, 120 injured. President Islam Karimov said on television it was an attempt to assassinate him. There was no immediate claim of responsibility. That's it for the news summary tonight. Now it's on to the tax cut debate; tragedy and healing in East Texas; an Iraq update; and some post-impeachment poetry.

FOCUS - DEBATING TAX CUTS

JIM LEHRER: Kwame Holman begins our tax- cut report.

KWAME HOLMAN: Republican leaders took to the road yesterday to tout a new agenda, in the wake of public opinion polls that showed the impeachment trial dented their party's image. In the Detroit suburb of Warren, they held a town meeting titled "Listening to America: Tax Cuts for Everyone."

SEN. TRENT LOTT: Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. It's a great pleasure to be back in Michigan.

KWAME HOLMAN: The tax-cutting message was delivered by Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, Michigan Governor John Engler, and other Republican members of congress. It was welcomed warmly by most in the largely partisan audience of 500.

SEN. TRENT LOTT: I believe, as Ronald Reagan believed, that America never has to be satisfied with the way it was or the way it is. We can make it better. That's what the Republican Party is all about.

KWAME HOLMAN: This working class enclave was the first of a 150-stop nationwide tour aimed at selling the belief of many Republicans that the times are right for an across-the-board cut of 10% in income tax rates.

SEN. TRENTLOTT: We have a new opportunity in Washington this year. We have a phenomenon that we have not had since 1969. We have a balanced budget and we have a surplus. You know, in Washington, they had to pull out Webster's Dictionary, surplus, surplus, what is this? We haven't had it in so long. Well, we do have it. So we have these surpluses now. There are a lot of people in the Washington bureaucracy that say "this is our money." When they say, "our," they don't mean you and me, they mean theirs in Washington. They want to spend it. Well, this is my motto. "It is your money."

KWAME HOLMAN: Both Republicans and Democrats propose dedicating some of the projected $2.5 trillion in budget surpluses over the next ten years to tax cuts. They also agree the bulk of the surpluses should go to shoring up Social Security. The two parties differ, however, on the kind and size of any tax cuts. President Clinton's latest budget calls for smaller, targeted tax cuts, totaling about $36 billion over five years, aimed primarily at helping families pay for child care and long-term health care. GOP leaders say they'll continue to press for the 10% reduction in tax rates, which some analysts say will cost $775 billion over ten years. And they will take that message next to town meetings in Virginia and Pennsylvania.

JIM LEHRER: Differing views of the Republican plan now from a supporter, Governor John Engler of Michigan, and a critic, Congressman Charles Rangel of New York, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee. Congressman, what's wrong with a 10% across-the-board tax cut?

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: You would think that the Republicans, after getting the hit on the impeachment, their conduct on impeachment, that this was behind us, that they would come together and see how they could work with the president of the United States in putting forward a legislative agenda that both Democrats and Republicans could agree to. To go on some town hall meeting and just to say that they're going to ignore the president's suggestion that we fix Social Security first, that we fix Medicare first and then we look to a tax cut -- I don't want to spend a lot of time with this unfair tax cut, because, as Trent Lott said, this is taxpayer's money. But Republicans being as they are don't want to redistribute it to those poor working people that are down there, but rather have the wealthier people receive the benefits. But the most important thing is that if they earmark this large part of the surplus to a tax cut, then what they're saying is to the President of the United States is that we're ignoring the needs of Social Security, we're ignoring the needs of Medicare, and I don't think with a six-vote margin that the Republicans in the House of Representatives can afford to do that.

JIM LEHRER: Governor, is that what you Republicans are saying?

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: Well, this sounds like a flashback, Congressman Rangel to when we were talking about welfare reform in '95 and '96, and we had to pass it twice, had it vetoed, and finally on the third time the president signed it. I think this tax cut is fair. The last time I checked, the auto workers that live in Warren, Michigan, where we were meeting yesterday, they pay a lot of taxes, and they ought to get some of it back and across-the-board it is modeled after a former president you thought a lot of, John Kennedy, in the 1960's. And it's modeled after a president I thought a lot of, Ronald Reagan in the 1980's. And I hope every 20 years or so we can get this right. Across the board, a tax cut for all Americansis the way to go. And this micro targeting, trying to divide the American people into little groups and little camps, here's a tidbit for you and a tidbit for you, is the wrong way to go. That's the old class warfare politics. We ought to get beyond that. In the 21st century, let's have all Americans and let's encourage all Americans to earn more and let's deal with this bracket creep, which today punishes people when they earn more by rewarding them with higher taxes. We're for lower taxes.

JIM LEHRER: Congressman Rangel, one of your basic charges is that this favors the wealthy. How does it favor the wealthy?

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: Because there's so many poor people that have to pay excise taxes and they pay taxes each and every day, and they don't have this federal liability. But if you just were to go across the board and find the higher income people and see how this is going to be distributed, a tax cut isn't just supposed to give back money, it's supposed to redistribute it with some degree of fairness. And the president has said that before you even talk about the allocation of returning the surplus, there are federal responsibilities. I would have hoped that instead of just trying to find a Republican solution to a problem, that perhaps the governor would recognize there is no Democratic or Republican solution. The American people have an obligation to take care of those large number of retirees, that's going to be a bumper crop, that's going to come up in the next couple of decades and the next century, that if we don't do something about it now, instead of talking about 10% tax cuts, it means that working people -- each working person will be responsible for taking care of one retiree. If we don't take care of the Medicare system, it means that our aged will not have health care for there for them. The president didn't just say no tax cut, he said take care of this national responsibility. Now, why in God's name, with all of the bad polling that the Republicans are getting, why would they not come to Washington and say let's sit down with the president, let's sit down with the Democrats, and let's work out something that we all can agree on?

JIM LEHRER: Governor, why not do that first, follow the president's way first?

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: Well, the president is getting a large part of what he asked for. Some 62% of this surplus right off the top is solving all those problems that the congressman is talking about. We're talking about what really is in Washington something surprising, a surplus, found money even above the estimates that some of the congressional estimators had put out there. Let me tell you that in Michigan, by cutting taxes across the board, and we're doing that again, it will be a billion dollar annual reduction in taxes across the board on Michigan taxpayers, we're seeing jobs created. And the way to lift people out of poverty is to give them better opportunities to go to work. And in America, when way I look at taxes, people earning $50,000 and more are paying 91% of all the income taxes in America. And we want to see more jobs created; we want to see these auto workers and middle income families get some relief so they can help pay for child care, pay for college, pay for other expenses in life. And at the same time, we want to see the economy stronger so everybody can move up.

JIM LEHRER: What about the -

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: Maybe I've misread something that came out of Michigan. But if the Republicans are saying that before they even go to the 10% tax cut, that they're going to fulfill a commitment to the Social Security system and take care of that first and then say they're going to take care of Medicare and take care of that second, then of course I think we can debate tax cuts. But I don't think that's what Republicans are saying. You're saying you're going to use the surplus to give a tax cut, and if there's anything left, then you'll deal with Social Security.

JIM LEHRER: Is that what you're saying, Governor?

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: I don't think that's what Senator Lott said yesterday. I don't think he said that in the clip that we just broadcast before we started talking.

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: Why can't we get a commitment now? If Republicans are saying this, that the first thing we're going to do for America is to make certain that Social Security trust fund is sound, the second thing we're going to do is to make certain that no older person that is entitled to Medicare is going to go wanting, and then after that let Democrats and Republicans debate what the tax cut is going to be. But you started off with your Republican retreat with tax cuts and not the needs of America's future.

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: Well, I disagree with that, congressman. You've got that Social Security issue, you trot it out every two and four years, the Democratic dogma to scare old folks in America, to say to the senior citizens in our country, who worked hard, paid all those taxes, you're at risk. And they're at risk when the economy is in trouble. The way to keep the economy strong is to cut taxes. That makes it easier to take care of all kinds of problems. So I think the strategy that Senator Lott is talking about, that Senator Abraham of Michigan, who is a co-sponsor of this tax cut for all Americans is real straightforward. Let's use a part of this surplus to help with Social Security and some of those long-term problems. Let's also, Congressman, while we're at it, get a proposal from the president, a specific proposal. He could do that, that would help this debate as well. And then let's use part of that surplus and give that back to all Americans right across the board. And that's a win-win situation for all Americans.

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: Governor, if you really don't believe it's a serious Social Security problem, if you don't believe it's even a more serious Medicare problem, then -

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: Oh, I believe it's a serious problem.

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: -- all you have to do is say this. Let Democrats and Republicans and the president fix that and then we'll debate your issue. But I don't think you're saying that. If you're saying it's not as much as a problem as Democrats say it is, then good, let's make certain we use the surplus, fix those two important problems that we face in the future, and then you and I can discuss whether the targeted tax credits are good or whether your across the board thing is good. But we can't get a commitment out of Republicans that they're going to fix the Social Security /Medicare system. That's where we ought to start.

GOV. JOHN ROWLAND: Congressman, all I'm saying is for seven years your president has had an opportunity to put a specific Social Security reform plan in front of the American public and have that debated. He's neglected to do that. He doesn't see maybe some of the same urgency. I agree there's a problem, that's why I'm willing to see some of this surplus put towards Social Security. But I'm also just as committed to having a substantial part of that surplus put toward growth in America, opportunities for people who live in poverty in our society to be able to move up, more opportunities for job creation.

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: We agree on that. But the president did put out a proposal, and the Republicans have not put out anything.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Let me ask the governor a question. This has become, it is being touted as the centerpiece of the Republican party at this point. New governors, members of the House, and Republican senators, Senator Lott as he said in Michigan yesterday, this is the centerpiece of your party and your agenda, is that correct, is that a correct reading?

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: It's part of it. I think there are several other parts of that centerpiece. I do think that the general theme of taking power and authority out of Washington, and, you know, I would remind everyone that Congressman Rangel and I debated welfare reform, and fortunately, we prevailed on that. And we've seen millions of Americans get off welfare, be able to go to work. So we were right on that one. I think we're just as right on tax cuts -- education, again, freeing up states and local communities to solve the problems, loosening Washington's grip. The same is true when it comes to retraining our workers and getting them 21st century skills. So all of that is part of a domestic agenda which trusts families and people to make decisions and doesn't suggest that by growing government bigger or taking the money to Washington and having Washington set our priorities somehow leads to a stronger America.

JIM LEHRER: And do you feel that that's the right side of politics right now?

GOV. JOHN ENGLER: Well, I think that in America people are looking for solutions. I think that's why we've got more than 30 Republican governors in virtually every key state in America today, including the congressman's own home state of New York, where Governor Pataki is seeking to cut taxes in order to create jobs. So, I think that's absolutely the right agenda. I think the national campaign, as we look ahead to the rest of this year and 2000, with this congress, we have an opportunity to do business with the president who is, I think, really got an eye on his legacy. I think unfortunately if some other members of congress in the president's own party are merely looking at the next election, they may not be as eager. But I think the Republican congress and the president finishing out his second term in office have some room to do business, just like we did on welfare reform.

JIM LEHRER: Congressman, finally, let me ask you, do you see this as a defining issue between Republicans and Democrats right now?

REP. CHARLES RANGEL: I hope not. This is just a partisan meeting that they had. I hope that when we do come back to the congress, that Republican and Democrat leaders will get together and meet with the president and to see what we can compromise and what we can come up with that saves the Social Security system and the Medicare system and then start talking about education and tax cuts. But to go away and to try to fashion an agenda -- Republicans is just not going to fly.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Gentlemen, thank you both very much.

FOCUS - TRYING TO HEAL

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: Healing in Jasper, Texas; an Iraq update; and a post-impeachment poem. Betty Ann Bowser has the Jasper story.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In Jasper, Texas, folks are mending fences by tearing one down. It was just a small, wrought-iron fence, but for more than 100 years it had separated the graves of whites from blacks in Jasper's cemetery, and people in this East Texas town of 8,000 recently decided now was the time for the fenceto go.

[PEOPLE SINGING]

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The ceremony came eight months after a brutal murder that catapulted residents into months of deep soul-searching, and asking themselves what their real feelings were about race. Last June, three white men were charged with chaining a black man, James Byrd, Jr., to the back of their pick-up truck and dragging him to his death. The case got international attention and became a flashpoint for the state of race relations in America because, it was alleged, Byrd was murdered for being black. The case also shocked and shamed the people of Jasper.

WOMAN: Everybody was just shocked in disbelief. I mean, people were just crying in the streets.

MAN: It was like goodness, gracious, mercy, can this happen in our community? Can we have something that is this brutal happen here?

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Now, as one of the accused killers goes on trial, the town continues to look at its own feelings about race. The removal of the graveyard fence last month was part of that effort. Jasper resident Margena Gardiner came to watch.

MARGENA GARDINER: What really moved me is I was born into a segregated world. And all my life we've been fighting against segregation, I didn't want to be buried here, and all my efforts that I've lived for would be for naught because I'd be buried in a segregated graveyard. Now it's changed in this graveyard -- if we could change the hearts of men the same way, you know, if they would pull their roots up and start afresh.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: At first, it didn't look like there would be a fresh start.

KU KLUX KLAN DEMONSTRATORS: [shouting] White power!

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Within days of Byrd's murder, groups like the Ku Klux Klan descended on Jasper.

KU KLUX KLAN MEMBER SPEAKING TO CROWD: This is Klan country, has been Klan country, and will be Klan country from now on! To hell with the Negroes and their special programs and their affirmative action.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The new Black Panthers marched through the streets.

BLACK PANTHERS MEMBER: We say to the Ku Klux Klan and we say to the White Aryan Brotherhood, we hope that you are as willing to die as you are as willing to kill.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: But almost as quickly, the family of James Byrd, Jr. pleaded with people to look for healing, not revenge. Clara Byrd Taylor, Byrd's sister, is a middle school teacher.

CLARA TAYLOR, James Byrd's Sister: We didn't want anyone to retaliate for my brother's death. We recognized that what had had happened to him could serve as an igniting point, whereas other organizations could use this as kind of a springboard to their activities, and a lot of those activities were involved in violence, and we didn't want that.

SPOKESMAN TALKING TO CROWD: Make a hole.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Still, news crews from as far away as Australia swarmed the streets, creating images of Jasper as a redneck, racist town. Mike Journee has lived in Jasper all of his life. He is editor of the town's twice-weekly newspaper, "NewsBoy."

MICHAEL JOURNEE, Editor, Jasper NewsBoy: We were getting news clips and everything from all over the world coming across our fax machine, people were sending us all kinds of stuff, and one of them was a London tabloid and it, on one side of the page, it had a picture of Billy Rowles in his cowboy hat -

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The sheriff.

MICHAEL JOURNEE: The Sheriff, Billy Rowles, the sheriff, in his cowboy hat, and on the one side, they had a picture of Byrd. And in the middle, they had this big, 100-point headline that said "The Town That Shamed America." The sensationalism of the headline and that kind of thing, that really is what people came here looking for.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Residents were thunderstruck by such characterizations. This is a town that is 40% black; the schools are heavily integrated; and many of its leaders are African American. Like most white leaders in town, Charlie Nicholson, a local restaurant owner, and his wife, Nancy, a city councilwoman, were stunned. He had thought race relations had been going along just fine.

CHARLIE NICHOLSON, Restaurant Owner: At this time we had a black mayor, we had a black city council men, DEDCO, which is a division that distributes the funds, you know, the federal funds for 15, 16 counties had a black leader; we had just recently had an election change of a black school board president that had been here 15, 16 years. We had a black hospital administrator. We are not in quotes a racist society.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: But Clara Taylor said the racial nature of the crime and its brutality were why it attracted so much attention.

CLARA TAYLOR: This was not just a crime against my brother, against my family. It was a crime against humanity. We thought we had come so far. And yet, we have this vicious killing taking place. It shows that we had not come as far as we thought we had come as far as race relations are concerned. I think it awakened in me, my family and others that hatred and racism and all these terrible evils of a society are still out there. And we need to do something to work against it.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: As part of that work, residents gathered and held hands in a courthouse vigil. They set up a task force on race relations, and they held diversity classes for teachers. At town meetings a split became evident. Whites talked about how good race relations were, but blacks spoke about more subtle examples of racism.

UNAV WADE, Beauty Shop Owner: Well, one of the reasons why she was so poor, though, is because her grandfather was a slave.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Unav Wade is a local storyteller and businesswoman who attended the community meeting. Wade is acutely aware of race. She spends a lot of time talking to schoolchildren about her grandfather, a slave, and how people can succeed in spite of their race.

UNAV WADE: Everybody would wash in the same pan in the morning.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: While she says race relations are better than they were in 1976, when she opened the first black business in the white section of town, racism still exists.

UNAV WADE: Somebody call on the phone and said where is your beauty shop located? Well, they assumed that there's no black beauty salon in this part of town. So they feel pretty safe, you know, to call a beauty salon, even though they don't know it, depending on what part of town it's in. So, she said where is your beauty shop located? I said it's 127 West Houston. And she called out to whomever she was talking to, and she said it's down there on 127 West Houston Street. And she said - and I can hear the lady in the back - oh, that's that nigger shop, we don't want to go there. So I mean, you know, she -- maybe she didn't know I could hear here, I'm pretty sure she didn't know I could hear her. But you have to face things like that all the time.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Stories like Wade's began to multiply when the mayor's task force sent out race surveys with utility bills. Residents were asked their opinions on the state of race relations.

NANCY NICHOLSON, City Councilwoman: What this did is bring reality to the forefront, that for many of us had not allowed it to come forward, because we were doing okay, and you just don't want to hurt anymore. You don't want to have to really deal with these kind of issues all the time. Black folks in my age in the 1950's and 60's, we really had a hard time. And, you know, we are trying to heal. Even though we're still working for the cause, but there's a lot of pain that goes along with that.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: For white residents like Nancy Nicholson, confronting community attitudes about race was gut-wrenching.

NANCY NICHOLSON: We learned that the hurt was so deep. And the wound was so deep in the black community, that we did not know - and a lot of the white community thought that there was no problem and while we are so far ahead of most southern cities that I know, it was that underlying personal, in your heart, are you thinking better of yourself because of the color of your skin? And it is - it's real. And I think when this happened, it kind of plowed up all that in our hearts, and we realized that there was prejudice. Some of the things that people would say at the meetings were when you give me my change back at a grocery store, you don't touch my hand; you lay it down; am I not good enough for you to put the money back in my hand? Little things like that.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: It's those little things that newspaper man Journee says will lead to bigger, more important changes.

MICHAEL JOURNEE: That this has made Jasper residents much more conscious of the way they treat one another. I know it has changed me a lot. I've also learned that you can bounce back and maybe even take a step forward, you know. That's what I think Jasper did. We took a hit and we stepped back for a second, then we took a couple of steps forward, went beyond where we were when this thing happened.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Jasper residents says they'll continue their dialogues about race. Meanwhile, Jasper is painting the best face possible on the town square where the first of three trials began today, and the family of James Byrd, Jr. has started to raise money for a foundation in his name. Its goal will be to improve racial understanding.

UPDATE - CONTINUING CONFRONTATION

JIM LEHRER: Now an update on the continuing confrontation with Iraq. Spencer Michels begins.

SPENCER MICHELS: The night skies over Baghdad were ablaze for nearly 90 hours last December, as U.S. and British aircraft attacked Iraqi targets. The bombs and missiles were a response to Iraq's failure to allow United Nations weapons inspections. The allied campaign was halted abruptly, when U.S. and British officials said the attacks had achieved their objectives of significantly degrading Iraq's military capabilities. But within days, a new, less dramatic and less publicized air campaign began, after Iraq asserted it would no longer comply with the so-called "no-fly" zones established in Iraq following the 1991 Gulf War. The zones were designed to protect Kurdish rebels in the North and Shiite Muslims in the South from attacks by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's forces. Iraqi electronic air defenses, including radar, began locking in on U.S. and British planes patrolling the northern and southern no-fly zones, a move detected by the allied pilots. Iraqi tactics grew even bolder in subsequent days, as their aircraft began pursuing allied planes, and, on at least two occasions, firing at them. So far, no allied planes have been reported hit. And in January, the U.S. military changed its guidelines, to allow a wider array of attacks against military targets, not just air defense sites posing an immediate threat to allied pilots. Pentagon spokesman, Ken Bacon, explained.

KENNETH BACON, Pentagon Spokesman: What's changed here, primarily, is that for the first time since the imposition of the no-fly zone, Iraq is mounting a very aggressive, determined, day-in and day-out attack against the planes patrolling the no-fly zone. And we are responding appropriately to a higher level of aggressiveness from Saddam Hussein.

SPENCER MICHELS: Iraq has called the attacks unprovoked and said civilian casualties continue to mount.

SPOKESMAN: Fall on my home - missile --

SPENCER MICHELS: The U.S. acknowledged one missile misfiring into a residential area near the city of Basra in Southern Iraq. Iraqi officials claim that 11 lives were lost. At the same time, the Clinton administration stepped up its support for the campaign to oust the Saddam Hussein government, identifying the opposition groups eligible to receive U.S. aid and naming a coordinator. Now, the Iraq government has intensified its verbal attacks on regional allies of the United States, especially those hosting U.S. and British air bases. A statement Sunday threatened Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Over the weekend, and on Monday, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz went to Ankara to persuade new Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, to stop U.S. patrols in the no-fly zones. Those planes fly out of the U.S. air base in Incirlik in Turkey. Ecevit, who is among Turkish politicians most sympathetic to Iraq, rejected the idea and said his government supported the allied attacks. Hours later, Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan went on TV and threatened to attack the U.S. base in Turkey, along with those of other U.S. allies in the region, saying Iraq can "reach the dens of evil" in Turkey, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. That threat brought a quick response from Secretary of State Madeline Albright who said: "We have made very clear that were there any attacks on our forces or on neighboring countries, that our response would be swift and sure." Both U.S. and Turkish officials denied any connection between that gesture of support and the dramatic arrest of Abdullah Ocalon, leader of the Turkish Kurds, whom the government of Turkey has been trying to capture for months, and whose arrest provoked Kurdish demonstrations across Europe.

JIM LEHRER: And to Margaret Warner.

MARGARET WARNER: Today, Iraqi officials renewed their threats and complaints against its neighbors that are providing bases for U.S. and British warplanes. For more on all this, we get four views: Retired Marine Corps General Richard Neal was deputy for operations and spokesman for General Schwartzkopf during the Gulf War. He later became deputy commander of the U.S. Central Command and assistant commandant of the Marine Corps. Richard Haass was special assistant to the president for Near East affairs at the National Security Council during the Bush administration. He's now director of foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution. Denis Halliday was the humanitarian coordinator of the UN's Oil-for-Food program in Iraq until this past fall. And Edmund Ghareeb is an adjunct professor of Middle East studies at American University, and author of several books on Iraq. Mr. Halliday, you've been in Iraq most recently, I believe, among our group. How do you explain these threats Iraq is making against the neighbors that are hosting these bases?

DENIS HALLIDAY, Former U.N. Official: Well, I would suggest that the government in Baghdad is under significant domestic pressure to respond to the attacks in the no-fly zones, which are an embarrassment to the regime of Saddam Hussein, are a further humiliation, which was experienced in the December attacks on the country, and I believe domestic political pressure is pushing the Iraqis to take more dramatic and more violent steps to counter these continuing air attacks in the no-fly zones. And this new development of challenging and threatening, in turn, the bases in the neighborhood countries is coming out of that. I think that's a tragedy. I think that's extremely dangerous. And I think it diverts attention where I would much happier see Iraq focus, that is, on the humanitarian crisis, the sanctions which are a form of warfare in their own right, and which, of course, are resulting in the deaths of thousands of Iraqis every month. That's where the focus should be, so this is a very unfortunate development.

MARGARET WARNER: Excuse me for interrupting. We're actually having some audio problem, but we will fix that. Professor Ghareeb, before we get on to the impact it's having, how do you explain that Saddam Hussein is making these threats? Do you think they are serious threats?

EDMUND GHAREEB, American University: Again, a great deal depends on the situation Saddam Hussein finds himself in, how serious these attacks are. I don't believe that they are -- he's as desperate as some people are portraying him to be. I believe that part of it is what Saddam Hussein is trying to do is, first of all, he believes he's on firm ground. He believes that the United States is violating Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity. He's appealing to domestic support. I think, as Mr. Halliday said, there is domestic pressure from Iraqi nationalists and from Islamists on him, and he needs to show that he's tough. Also, I think he is trying to play to a broader Arab audience, and perhaps this is why he's trying to put pressure on some of the neighboring governments, because he knows that there is sympathy at least on Arab public opinion for the Iraqi position, for the suffering of the Iraqi people, if not necessarily always support for the Iraqi leadership. And, however, I think the real capability, this raises a lot of questions. I mean, militarily, Iraq does not have a strong air force. Iraq in the past has not used terrorism as far as we know to attack bases in -- or targets in other areas. So that makes it very difficult for me to see, unless they're going to launch some missiles, how they're going to do that.

MARGARET WARNER: Richard Haass, how do you read these threats, in terms of their seriousness, why they're being issued. And, I mean, if you were still a U.S. policy maker, how would you be looking on them?

RICHARD HAASS, Brookings Institution: I would essentially see them as an opportunity. If Saddam actually carried through on them, Margaret, it would give us the license to galvanize regional and international support to really deliver a massive series of blows on Saddam Hussein. It would essentially let us do what we could have done but alas didn't do during Operation Desert Fox, which is enter into a sustained military campaign that could fundamentally weaken him, or perhaps even lead to his ouster. That said, look, no one's made any money predicting what Saddam Hussein is ever going to do. No one really knows if he's going to make good on these threats. He's clearly hoping to intimidate these governments to get them to back down, to raise popular pressure against them. I expect he won't succeed, and then he'll have to decide whether he's prepared to escalate and actually make good on his words.

MARGARET WARNER: General Neal, is he in a position militarily to make good on these threats in any way?

GEN. RICHARD NEAL, U.S. Marine Corps [Ret.]: No, I don't really think so, although it's speculation. As you recall, one of the reasons for the overflights was his lack of adherence to some of the UN sanctions. And if you recall, we're still thinking that he has some Scud missiles hidden somewhere within the country. That probably would be the easiest way to attack one of those three nations that he struck out at verbally, but I'm not sure he has that capability. And if he does, then that really would substantiate the position the United States and other countries, that he's been hiding these weapons of mass destruction. As was stated by one of the previous speakers, he does have aircraft. He could conceivably put together 10 or 15 operational aircraft and make a surge effort towards one of the nations, most likely Kuwait, perhaps Turkey, and with luck perhaps get one or two leakers or aircraft get through the air defense that might be able to do some damage. A third alternative would be non-state actors, terrorists that support the Iraqi regime and may be in contact with Saddam. Possibly they could in some way come into play. I think looking at it legitimately, one of the things that he has going for him is being unpredictable and the ability to surprise us. Well, this he's taken the surprise away by boldly declaring that he's going to issue harm against one of those three nation states. By losing that element of surprise, we've actually probably increased our readiness already alert posture, and probably could turn back anything that he might have. I think it's a lot of wind.

MARGARET WARNER: Mr. Halliday, you started to discuss -- can you hear me now?

DENIS HALLIDAY: Yes, thank you, I can.

MARGARET WARNER: Terrific, and we can hear you much better. You started to discuss now what impact you thought these bombing attacks were having, this sort of low-level warfare that's going on. And we couldn't hear you terribly well. What impact do you think it's having? Do you think it's degrading, for instance, Saddam Hussein's military capabilities?

DENIS HALLIDAY: Well, the point I was trying to make was the attacks on the no-fly zones are diverting attention from the real crisis in Iraq. For me the real crisis is sanctions, which in a sense have become a form of warfare, given the fact that we're seeing thousands of Iraqis lose their lives every month. And that's where the focus would be. That's where the Iraqis should bring in their allies and trying to find a means to have the Security Council lift sanctions. By all means - a must is to retain the control of military capacity, not just in Iraq, of course, but in the entire Middle East neighborhood -- get the focus where it should be that is, on the humanitarian crisis. The no-fly zones to me are obviously less important.

MARGARET WARNER: And, Professor Ghareeb, you believe that this is what Saddam Hussein is trying to do, and that his ultimate aim is to get the foot of the UN sanctions off his neck.

EDMUND GHAREEB: Absolutely. I think he's trying to draw attention also to another issue. He's trying to raise the stakes in order to force attention on what's happening in Iraq. On the sanctions, he wants to lift the sanctions. The sanctions, as we heard, have been devastating for Iraq. But at the same time, I think he's also doing something else with this confrontation, although I'm not sure that threatening the neighbors necessarily is the best way of doing that. I think what -

MARGARET WARNER: Hard to get people -- when you're threatening them -- to then have sympathy for you.

EDMUND GHAREEB: Exactly. Absolutely. I think what he is trying to do is in a way he feels that when they were measured -- when the US launched Operation Desert Fox, there was a mass response in the Arab world, in the Arab street. There was a great deal of sympathy in the Islamic world and internationally for Iraq. What he sees then, that failed, but what's going on now is the United States is launching a campaign, a daily campaign to attack Iraqi targets, without getting the media, without getting the attention to this going on. So I think what he's trying to do is to draw attention to what's going on, and on an issue that he feels he is protecting Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity, in an area where the U.S. doesn't have a great deal of legal support and legal legitimacy.

MARGARET WARNER: Richard Haass, how do you read the reaction of Iraq's neighbors right now?

RICHARD HAASS: I think most of the experts have been wrong, and have been wrong for a long time on that point, Margaret. If you recall, all during the Gulf war, everyone kept predicting the Arab street, the Arab man in the street was going to rise up on behalf of Saddam against the United States and the international coalition. Well, it never happened. And it hasn't happened since. Saddam basically has virtually no support throughout the Arab world. There is support for the Iraqi people, which is why we need to be extra careful whenever we do use military force that we take every precaution conceivable to minimize so-called collateral damage, hurting innocent men, women and children. Well, right now Iraq is pretty isolated, and I would actually go on to say that if the United States is prepared to use serious amounts of military force, I actually think we'll get an awful lot of support from Arab governments. Where Arab governments get nervous is when they sense the United States is weak or indecisive. But if we show that we're prepared not only to begin but to carry out a sustained effort against Saddam Hussein and against Iraq, I actually think we'll get quite a lot of support throughout the Arab world and Turkey.

MARGARET WARNER: General Neal, let's go back to the bombing campaign that's going on right now. What impact do you think it's having within Iraq, both militarily in terms of degrading his capabilities, and also politically perhaps?

GEN. RICHARD NEAL: Well, I think it's having a good effect from a United States and coalition point of view. A point I might differ with one of the speakers previously is that essentially this campaign that the United States and the coalition forces have been using is really because of Saddam Hussein's activities of putting radar contacts on our aircraft as they're controlling the no-fly zone. So they could -- that could be shut off quite quickly and allow those planes just to continue to keep the no-fly zone what it is, no-fly zone, and there wouldn't be any more chances for collateral damage or any more attacks against Iraqi targets in the no-fly zone. Specifically answering his question, I think it's having a good impact as far as the United States and the coalition forces are concerned, because they have expanded the envelope so to speak and are able to attack not just the targets that have painted them on their aircraft, but any targets that are militarily significant. So they have now gone out in what you would classify a target-rich environment, and if, in fact, Iraq is provocative against one of the aircraft and they turn and pick out the target of their choosing and take it on. This, obviously, is playing to the advantage of the United States and to the coalition forces.

MARGARET WARNER: Do you have any thoughts, staying with you General Neal, about what impact this might be having or U.S. policy makers may hope it's having on the army in Iraq, on the elite forces there, on the military leadership?

GEN. RICHARD NEAL: Well, obviously I wouldn't want to be one of the folks this have to turn on the radars down in the Iraqi trenches. I'm assuming their air defense corps is not at a high state of morale, so to speak. Obviously by expanding the target list and attacking those targets in the no-fly zone, as they see fit, no one is immune from the attacks from the United States and from the British aircraft. So I would think that morale is down. What's happening internally within Baghdad and the cities and towns around Iraq would be speculation on my part. I'm sure that a lot of what's being said both to the external and to the internal is just to play to the Iraqi people to try and keep them on the side of Saddam Hussein.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. I'd like to go around to all four of you before we go and just ask you where you think this is heading. Mr. Halliday, starting with you. Where do you think this is heading?

DENIS HALLIDAY: Well, Ms. Warner, I'm deeply concerned to hear Richard Haass and then General Neal talk about these strikes and the reaction of Iraq to these strikes in the so-called no-fly zones as an opportunity, an opportunity for more warfare, for more destruction, for more attacks on Iraq. That really is totally counterproductive. What we need to focus on today is the damage that we are doing to Iraq through the sanctions, which we are supporting in Washington, London and in Europe. That has got to come to an end. We are now responsible for the slaughter, and I use the word deliberately, the slaughter of Iraqi people, particularly the most vulnerable, Iraqi children throughout the country. We're killing thousands per month. That's where the focus should be - not on continuing warfare, which is obviously counterproductive for everybody concerned.

MARGARET WARNER: Richard Haass, is this sustainable, given concerns like that?

RICHARD HAASS: It is sustainable. And what Mr. Halliday just said is slanderous and even libel against the United States and its policy, Margaret. If any Iraqis are suffering, it's not a result of the sanctions. It's a result from Saddam Hussein's calculated efforts to deny his own people food and medicine. He wants to create international sympathy. Clearly it's working with Mr. Halliday, but should not work with anyone who's got his eyes open and is being at all objective about who's the cause of problems within modern Iraq.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Professor Ghareeb, do you think this could continue indefinitely this low-level warfare?

EDMUND GHAREEB: It's very difficult to see how I think we - if it continues like this -- we might see an escalation, and I think the danger here of what we see, if there is an escalation, is what I would like to see, that the Iraqi people are going to continue to pay a price for what's going on, and it's not really so if the United States is interested in democracy, we're destroying the infrastructure of Iraq. And if we are really trying to change the situation, I think we should separate between the Iraqi people and the leadership.

MARGARET WARNER: General Neal, do you see that danger of escalation?

GEN. RICHARD NEAL: No, I really don't. I think we will probably see a continuation here, unless Saddam gets a stroke of intelligence and calls this off and allows the uninterrupted flights within the no-fly zone. I think really all of these activities are directly related to the Iraqi leadership. All he has to do is comply with the UN sanctions, reintroduce the inspection regime, sanctions will be lifted, and the Iraqi people won't suffer any longer.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Thank you all four very much. We have to leave it there.

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, some post- impeachment poetry from NewsHour contributor Robert Pinsky, the poet laureate of the United States.

ROBERT PINSKY: This week we face speculation about how President Clinton will be remembered, how the members of the House and Senate who took part in the recent impeachment proceedings will be remembered, what we as a people will leave behind from this passage. Such speculation may be futile. What will be recalled and what will vanish like a dent in dough? Who knows? In this passage, from my poem "An Explanation of America," I try to think about this question of what we leave behind by considering two epitaphs: "The words over the grave of Thomas Jefferson; and those over the grave of a freed slave. Jefferson, in his epitaph, records that he was author of the 'Declaration of Independence' and of the Virginia law providing public education, and founder of that state's university, omitting his high office as if it were bound or something held, not something he had done, the ceremonial garment he had been given by others with a certain solemn function and honor eventually to be removed. In the familiar boast or accusation, Americans have scant historic sense. Nostalgia and progress seem to be our frail national gestures against the enveloping, suffusive nightmare of time which swallows first the unaware because they are least free. But time's nightmare and freedom from it differ for different peoples, like their burial customs and what they choose to say and what they leave. To speak words few enough to fit a stone and frame them as if speaking from the past into the void or mystery of the future demands that we be naked, free, and final. God wills us free. Man wills us slaves. I will as God wills, God's will be done. Here lies the body of John Jack, a native of Africa who died March 1773, aged about 60 years. Though born in a land of slavery, he was born free. Though he lived in a land of liberty, he lived a slave till, by his honest though stolen labors, he acquired the source of slavery, which gave him his freedom, though not long before death, the grand tyrant gave him his final emancipation and set him on a footing with kings. Though a slave to vice, he practiced those virtues without which kings are but slaves."

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Tuesday: Greek embassies in Europe were hit by violence. Kurdish protesters accused Greece of extraditing a Kurdish rebel to Turkey to be tried for treason. And First Lady Hillary Clinton said she would give careful thought to running for the United States Senate from New York, and she'll make the decision later this year. We'll see you on-line, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.