The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

RAY SUAREZ: Good evening. I'm Ray Suarez. Jim Lehrer is off. On the NewsHour tonight, our summary of the news; the new Iraqi government struggles to maintain control; and Pakistan cracks down on al-Qaida suspects.

NEWS SUMMARY

RAY SUAREZ: Iraq's radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr vowed a fight to the death today, hours after Prime Minster Ayad Allawi called on al-Sadr's army to lay down its arms. Fierce battles raged for a fifth day in the southern city of Najaf. The fighting centered on a cemetery where al-Sadr's men have taken refuge near a Shiite holy site. In his first public appearance since the renewed fighting, al- Sadr said he would not leave Najaf.

MUQTADA AL-SADR (translated): I will continue with resistance and I will remain. I will not leave. I will continue to defend Najaf. I will remain in the city until the last drop of my blood has been spilled.

RAY SUAREZ: The U.S. Military today reported two more Americans had died in Najaf since Saturday. More than 350 insurgents are thought to have been killed there since fighting began last week. Also today, al-Sadr's fighters were reported to be patrolling the streets in Basra and setting up checkpoints. Iraq's southern oil company stopped pumping oil to the city after insurgents threatened the pipeline. Also today, the U.S. Military reported a marine killed in western Iraq. A suicide bomber detonated a car bomb outside the house of a provincial official northeast of Baghdad today, killing four Iraqi policemen and two civilians. The official and 17 other Iraqis were wounded. West of the capital, a roadside bomb killed four Iraqis in a bus. Two prominent Iraqis said today they'd fight criminal charges brought against them over the weekend. Ahmed Chalabi is a former member of Iraq's governing council. He was also a key source of U.S. intelligence on Iraq before the war. On Saturday, an Iraqi judge signed a warrant for his arrest on counterfeiting charges. From the Iranian capital, Tehran, Chalabi said the action was politically motivated.

AHMED CHALABI: The charges are outrageous and false. I deny them. They are not true. The judge who made them has a personal vendetta against me and my family. He has spoken out in the press against me. He spoke against the court at this time. Go back to Iraq and be thrown in

RAY SUAREZ: Another warrant targeted Chalabi's nephew, Salem, in a murder investigation. Salem Chalabi currently heads Iraq's special tribunal charged with trying Saddam Hussein. In London today, he alleged Saddam loyalists were behind the warrants. The Iraqi judge made no comment on the cases today. Yesterday he said both men should be brought in, and "if there is enough evidence, they will be sent to trial." We'll have more on this story later in the program. Back in this country today, the Associated Press said it had obtained an FBI bulletin warning that al-Qaida operatives may hijack tourist helicopters, or use limousines and rental vehicles to conceal or detonate explosives. Today's New York Times also reported the threat. And this week's Time Magazine revealed a plot to attack New York harbor with speedboats. The warnings were released Friday to law enforcement agencies. The terror alert was raised last week to code orange for financial institutions in New York City, Newark, New Jersey, and Washington, D.C.

An Oklahoma State court sentenced Terry Nichols to life in prison without parole today in the Oklahoma City bombing. He's already serving a life sentence on federal charges in the 1995 attack. Nichols addressed a courtroom for the first time, expressing remorse to the families of 160 people killed in the blast. He said, "Words cannot adequately express the sorrow I have felt over the years for the grief they have all suffered." Timothy McVeigh was executed in 2001 for carrying out the bombing. Republican Alan Keyes began campaigning for the U.S. Senate today in Illinois. He accepted the party's offer yesterday at a rally outside Chicago, replacing a candidate who dropped out. Keyes made losing bids for the GOP presidential nomination and was twice defeated in U.S. Senate races in his home state of Maryland. Keyes' opponent, State Sen. Barak Obama, was keynote speaker at the Democratic Convention. He has a strong lead in public opinion polls. The winner will become the nation's fifth African American senator, and the second from Illinois. The former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John Shalikashvili is in "guarded condition" today at a military hospital in Washington State. A spokesman said he was admitted Saturday, and his family has chosen not to reveal the reason. The retired army general spoke at the Democratic Convention in Boston last month. He was among a group of former generals who endorsed democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. A release of non-radioactive steam killed four workers and injured seven at a nuclear power plant in Japan today. The leak occurred 200 miles west of Tokyo. Officials said it was the worst ever accident at one of the nation's 52 nuclear facilities. A plant spokesman said the steam was caused by a lack of cooling water in the reactor's turbine. Nearly 35 percent of Japan's electricity comes from atomic power. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a fraction of a point to close at 9814. The NASDAQ fell 2 points to close at 1774. The U.S. anti-doping agency said today Olympic gold medalist Bernard Williams tested positive for a banned substance at a June meet in Spain. The agency said it gave Williams a warning and allowed him to remain eligible for the 2004 Athens games because it was his first offense. He was a gold medal sprinter on the four-by-100 meter U.S. relay team at the Sydney Olympics. The agency said Williams had tested positive for having cannabis, or THC, in his system. That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to taking charge in Iraq, and hunting al-Qaida in Pakistan.

UPDATE STRUGGLE FOR CONTROL

RAY SUAREZ: Now to the Iraq story. We start with a report from John Burns of the New York Times in Baghdad. Terence Smith talked with him earlier this evening.

TERENCE SMITH: John Burns, welcome again to the broadcast. Judging from the news reports, there seems to be a lot going on in both the political and military fronts in Iraq. Let's start with the military first. What's the state of fighting today?

JOHN BURNS: Well, to begin with, the things that are closest to me here in Baghdad: The United States military has declared, through the Iraqi civil authorities, a curfew from 4:00 P.M. to 8:00 A.M. In Sadr City, the Shiite slum about four miles northeast of where I'm standing now. That will give you an idea of the seriousness of the situation there. It's quite plain who is in charge of Sadr City, and that is Muqtada al-Sadr, the rebel Shiite cleric. It looks as though the United States military, with the support of the new Iraqi government, is intending to go in there and try and clear things out. To the South, at Najaf, the holy city 120 miles south of Baghdad, something similar is occurring. The United States Marine Corps, now reinforced by an army battalion, have been fighting for five days for the control of the center city of Najaf, which has brought them right to the edge of the most holy shrine in Islam, the Imam Ali Shrine, and the huge cemetery, something like twelve or fifteen square miles of cemetery that abuts it-- again, the holiest cemetery in Shiite Islam. That fighting is inconclusive as of right now. The U.S. Military tells us they've killed over 360 of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army militiamen. Sadr himself appeared for the first time in days today and was a study in defiance, specifically rejecting calls from Dr. Allawi, the new Iraqi prime minister, to, in effect, withdraw his fighters from Najaf and to join the political process ahead of the elections in January. So it looks as though there is going to be a fight, a renewed fight, in Najaf, and at this point it's a bit premature to say which way it will go except that it leads to a state of terrific tension in all the affected parts of Iraq, which is Baghdad and the southern cities, the southern Shiite cities.

TERENCE SMITH: Are there any reports, John, of any negotiations towards a resumed cease-fire that might be going on behind scenes?

JOHN BURNS: Well, Dr. Allawi, who has flown down to Najaf in a United States army Black Hawk helicopter yesterday on a day of... in which he cast himself as Iraq's hard man, said "no truce, no negotiations whatsoever." I noticed that the U.S. Command spokesman today was a little bit more tentative than that. He didn't absolutely rule out negotiations, but it looks as though the negotiations would be of the same kind that occurred in March and April, which was an agreement by Sadr's people to, in effect, disarm the city center, at least lay down their arms. That, of course, collapsed. And I don't think anybody realistically believes that renewed negotiations in this circumstance would be productive.

TERENCE SMITH: Given what you've just described in Sadr City and in Najaf, what's the state of support for Muqtada al-Sadr? Is it widespread? Is it growing?

JOHN BURNS: It's very hard to say. It's quite clear that the middle class in Najaf... and I would think a majority of the residents of Najaf do not like Sadr's people one little bit. He has destroyed, in effect, commerce in the city; he has terrorized people; he has murdered policemen; he has decapitated policemen. It's a very unpleasant scene. But Sadr City is a different place. Sadr City is an impoverished slum, and Sadr's populist message has a much greater appeal there, and we at the New York Times had graphic evidence of that yesterday when one of our photographers was within 150 yards of a U.S. Military helicopter, attack helicopter that was shot down. And there was a "Black Hawk Down" revisited situation there for two hours, in which the wounded crew were extracted by a quick reaction force. The helicopter and the area were set upon by... by scores of people-- not in Mahdi army uniforms, not dressed in black-- people who looked as though they had just grabbed their Kalashnikovs and run to the site and their rocket-propelled grenades, and looking at those photographs brought back by our photographer, I had to say, it gave me a very grim view of what lies ahead. It looks very much that up there what the United States is fighting is, in effect, something that we might call a war of national resistance.

TERENCE SMITH: Meanwhile, on the political front, these arrests of the Chalabis-- Ahmed Chalabi and Salem Chalabi-- what's behind those?

JOHN BURNS: Well, it's politics. That's not to preclude the possibility that there may be some substance to the charges. It's not the first time that Ahmed Chalabi has been accused in one jurisdiction or another of financial irregularities. And he has, of course, denied them, as has his nephew. But behind all of that, there's politics. Ahmed Chalabi aspired to be the first post-Saddam Hussein president of Iraq and anticipated that he would be, in effect, placed in that position by the united... by the Pentagon. As we know, that plan disintegrated months ago, and Chalabi was left without any kind of political base. But as he has been in the past a political chameleon, he recast himself as a champion, if you will, of the moderate Islamist cause here, and it looked like he recently... his aspiration was to become the first prime minister-- elected prime minister-- of Iraq, in effect, in those January elections with the support of the moderate imams of an Iranian-backed Islamic Party. That makes him a rival of Dr. Iyad Allawi, the prime minister, who, of course, now has the levers of power in his hands. He has 135,000 American troops. He has an increasingly significant Iraqi security force: Army, National Guard, police. And it looks to me as though that Dr. Allawi, whatever the merits of the legal case may be, saw in these accusations a handy opportunity, in effect, to unseat both of the Chalabis, who have resolved to return, but I'll believe that when I see it. They're outside the country at the moment, and it looks as though they would be arrested and jailed if they did come back.

TERENCE SMITH: Obviously a very fast- moving situation. John Burns of the New York Times, thank you so much for bringing us up-to-date on it.

JOHN BURNS: It's a pleasure, Terry. Thank you very much.

RAY SUAREZ: Now, an assessment of the latest moves by Prime Minister Allawi to assert control over the country. For that we're joined by: Larry Diamond, a former political adviser to the coalition provisional authority in Baghdad from January to April this year; he's a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and Eric Davis, a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University, and author of "Memories of State: Politics, History and Collective Identity in Modern Iraq."

Well, Larry Diamond, a lot of the latest news, whether it's a response to the militia uprisings, the shutting down of al-Jazeera, warrants out for the Chalabis, one name keeps popping up in these stories, and that's Iyad Allawi. Are we watching five weeks after the handover an attempt to coalesce power in one set of hands?

LARRY DIAMOND: Well, Ray, obviously we are watching that. What we don't know is whether we're watching that by an autocrat or a democrat. That remains to be determined. But we have to keep in mind that Iraq doesn't really have a state right now, and so some effort to establish and consolidate power in the authority of the state and face down lawless elements, and I think Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army clearly are among them, is vital if Iraq is going to have any democratic order. But if he crosses the line into rampant abuse of power, then much of what we have been fighting for could be negated.

RAY SUAREZ: We'll get back to Muqtada al-Sadr a little later. Professor Davis, what do you make of Iyad Allawi's recent moves?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, I think that he is very concerned about the fact that Sadr has left the political process and now has tried to use his radical elements to assert his power. I think this all goes back to last month when there was supposed to be a national convention to elect 100 delegates. There would be an interim assembly that would be in effect setting up the elections of January 2005. I think al-Sadr feels that the bosses, in effect, behind the scenes have already pre-determined who would be elected to this assembly and what work it would carry out. So I think that he is trying to now flex his muscle and Allawi is responding

RAY SUAREZ: But should the U.S. be concerned, as Larry Diamond hinted out, at whether Allawi sees himself as an autocrat or a democrat? What sort of is waiting at the end of this process of consolidation of power?

ERIC DAVIS: Well, I think this is a very difficult situation for anyone who tries to assert his authority. There is going to be a measure of abuse of power. I think the fact that there are warrants that have to be reviewed by both the ministry of justice and the ministry of the interior, and the fact that there is a vigorous press in Iraq right now, anyone can go to the Internet and read the Arabic Press -- there's a vast number of Iraqi newspapers that are online every day, and I think that unlike under Saddam these newspapers are going to play a critical role in making sure that he does not abuse his power.

RAY SUAREZ: Larry Diamond, what about that? Now that the CPA has been dismantled, there are still more than 100,000 troops there but Paul Bremer is home. What is the interest of the U.S. in which way Allawi turns?

LARRY DIAMOND: Well, I think it's obvious the interest of the U.S. is in seeing him and his interim government succeed in building a viable state that has real authority, but at the same time won that-- one that respects the interim constitution which is a profoundly liberal document, which I might add, Salemme Chalabi had a major role in drafting; and that does so in a way that is more or less respectful of the rules and principles of democracy. And I'm not saying Allawi has crossed the boundary toward autocracy yet, but it's tempting to do so if you are under the kinds of pressures that he is, and we need to be mindful of that.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, you heard John Burns calling him someone who is becoming Iraq's hard man. How did you hear that? What did that mean to you?

LARRY DIAMOND: Well, I think John perhaps, in his brilliant reporting, left it a bit deliberately ambiguous. But a hard man is necessary in order to establish order. And in order to face down a number of formidable challenges to the authority of the new Iraqi state of which I add one way or another, Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army are prominent among them and have to be dealt with. I think Allawi was chosen precisely because he is tough, he's resolute, he's fearless and he's willing to use force to confront the enemies of a kind of decent and humane political order. But that has to be done in a way that is respectful of the rule of law. And I'm a little bit concerned about these indictments in terms of the possibility that they may imply the use of law as a political weapon.

RAY SUAREZ: Professor Davis, do you think those indictments may carry that risk, that taint of politicization?

ERIC DAVIS: Certainly. I've spoken today to a number of Iraqis and they have all expressed both confusion and concern with the arrest warrant that has been issued for Salemme Chalabi. They've also pointed out that the individual in question who he is alleged to have conspired to murder, Fadil, a director general of the ministry of finance was engaged in an investigation apparently being carried out quite efficiently of improper use of the CPA of Iraqi government money. So if this is the case, there is obviously a lot more than meets the eye.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Professor, are we facing the possibility of a situation where door is left open for Muqtada al-Sadr, who has been accused of many crimes, including the murder of the senior cleric to return to politics while Salemme Chalabi may be indicted and tried for murder?

ERIC DAVIS: I think the Iraqi press again and the organization of civil society and ex-patriot Iraqis are going to have to press the matter of Salemme Chalabi. But to return to Sadr, one factor has been lost to the eyes of many. And that is the fact that I do not think that the large number of young people, we are talking about Iraqis between 16, 17 and 24 and 25 who have been attracted to al-Sadr's movement, these people are without jobs, many of them have some education, they have start upward mobility, and I think Allawi has been very shrewd in offering amnesty but I think he also has to set up a type of WPA, a New Deal type project, even if it is make work to clean up garbage, to clean up sewers, to do some kind of civic work on their part in which they will receive a wage and thered be much less of an incentive for them to continue in this organization.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Larry Diamond, this very issue must have been something that bedeviled you at the CPA -- what to do with all those young men.

LARRY DIAMOND: It bedeviled us chronically, Ray. And the problem is it is an extremely intricate chicken and egg problem. You can't have security, as Eric Davis has so well rightly noted, if you don't have a hope and economic prospects, particularly for the angry young men on the streets. On the other hand, it's hard to generate the jobs if you don't have enough security for the truckers to go out and deliver goods and services and for the economy to prosper. And I think the only answer is we need to move vigorously, creatively and simultaneously on both fronts. You move militarily on front of confronting the insurgency and not letting a bully and a thug, and I really think Muqtada al-Sadr is that, define the rules on his own. On the other hand, I think Professor Davis has correctly implied that this insurgency is not going to be beaten purely by military means. Our military commanders on the ground repeatedly note that themselves. So we have to have a strategy, if possible, to draw in Sadrs forces into the political game beginning in the national conference and certainly an economic strategy to give these people jobs, employment, income and most of all hope.

RAY SUAREZ: Professor Davis, before we go, does the warrant for Salemme Chalabi suddenly stamp a great big question mark over the eventual trial in any timely way of Saddam Hussein? Today one of Hussein's lawyers said it is a miracle from God to help Saddam Hussein, the warrant issued for Salemme Chalabi's arrest.

ERIC DAVIS: Well, again, I think there may be more than meets the eye as Professor Diamond has indicated. There may be a situation developing in which Prime Minister Allawi wants to not give the illusion, or the impression that he is trying Saddam for United States. And in effect, by excluding the Chalabis, who have in the past been closely associated with the United States Government, he may be trying to send a message that this is going to be an Iraqi, not an American trial in an Iraqi court of Saddam Hussein. But I think there is no doubt about the fact that Saddam will have his day in court and that he will ultimately be judged according to the crimes he has committed.

RAY SUAREZ: Larry Diamond, your view on the trial, coming trial of Saddam Hussein?

LARRY DIAMOND: I think Eric Davis is right in what he said. There is no way that Saddam is not going to be tried vigorously and, you know, meet the fate that he deserves. Let me just say that I worked closely with Salemme Chalabi over a number of weeks in advising on the drafting of the interim constitution and I found him to be a deeply liberal person, profoundly committed to the rule of law. I would really be shocked if these charges are true. It doesn't mean they're not, but it certainly is not at all consistent with the Salemme Chalabi that I came to know.

RAY SUAREZ: Gentlemen, thank you both.

RAY SUAREZ: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: Pakistans efforts to round up al-Qaida suspects.

FOCUS PAKISTAN FRONTLINE STATE

RAY SUAREZ: Next, Pakistan takes on al-Qaida. We begin with some background from Tom Bearden.

TOM BEARDEN: Since June, Pakistani officials have arrested more than 20 al-Qaida terror suspects. Among those seized: Pakistani computer engineer Mohammad Naeem Noor Khan. E-mails and documents found on Khan's computers led the United States to issue a terror alert last week for a possible al-Qaida attack on financial institutions in New York, New Jersey and Washington, D.C. Khan's information also led authorities to arrest a dozen terror suspects in Britain last Wednesday, including one believed to have been plotting an attack on Heathrow Airport. And another top al-Qaida suspect, Tanzanian Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, was arrested in eastern Pakistan. Ghailani is wanted by the U.S. Government for his role in the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in East Africa. Last month, when the 9/11 Commission released its report, the commissioners said that the western part of Pakistan and along the Afghan border remained a top hideout for terrorists. The commissioners recommended that the U.S. pay closer attention to Pakistan. They said: Sustaining the current scale of aid to Pakistan the United States should support Pakistans government in its struggle against extremists with the comprehensive effort that extends from military aid to support for better education. Over the past month, Pakistani security forces have stepped up their offensive along the border with Afghanistan to root out al-Qaida fighters and the local tribesman sheltering them. The aggressive pursuit of terrorists has been spearheaded by Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, the army general who seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999. Despite growing opposition in his country, two assassination attempts on his life last December, and a failed attempt to kill his prime minister designate two weeks ago, Musharraf has been a key U.S. ally since the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

PRESIDENT PERVEZ MUSHARRAF: We have cooperated closely in the global fight against terrorism, and we stand determined to rid the world of this menace. We abhor terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. There is no cause that can be justified or promoted through terrorist acts, and Pakistan is moving against terrorism in its own national interest.

TOM BEARDEN: During a visit to Pakistan in march, Secretary of State Colin Powell announced plans to make Pakistan a major non-NATO ally, making it eligible to buy more sophisticated U.S. weapons. That decision was made despite the Pakistani government's admission two months before that its top nuclear scientist had sold nuclear secrets to Iran, North Korea, and Libya. The U.S. Government has long been urging the Pakistanis to do more. The U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzhad, appeared on the NewsHour in November.

ZALMAY KHALIZHAD: Pakistan is a partner in the war against terrorism. It has been helpful in hunting down al-Qaida members in Pakistan. It can do even more on that, but with regard to the Taliban, Pakistani territory has been used as a sanctuary by the Taliban. I look forward to working with the Pakistanis, as others are in the U.S. Government, that the use of Pakistani territory as a sanctuary by the Taliban must end.

TOM BEARDEN: Meanwhile, on the Afghanistan side of the Pakistani frontier, U.S. soldiers continue the search for fugitive al-Qaida leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri and Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

RAY SUAREZ: Margaret Warner has more.

MARGARET WARNER: Is Pakistan cracking down on al-Qaida, providing a haven, or both? To explore that, we turn to Steve Coll, managing editor of the Washington Post, and author of "Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001." He's a former South Asia bureau chief for the Post. Husain Haqqani, a former advisor to three previous Pakistani prime ministers. He's now a syndicated columnist and a visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And Stephen Cohen, who dealt with South Asia on the State Department's policy planning staff in the Reagan administration; he is now a senior fellow at the Brookings institution. His latest book is called "The Idea of Pakistan." Welcome to you all.

Husain Haqqani, what do you think explains the recent rash of arrests of top al-Qaida figures in Pakistan?

HUSAIN HAQQANI: Pakistan needs to prove to the United States that it is an ally in the war against terrorism. There is a pattern to this. Pakistan joined war against terrorism as a matter of convenience, not as a matter of commitment. Until 9/11, Pakistan was backing the Taliban regime and by extension, al-Qaida. Pakistan has waged a war against India in Kashmir with the help of Islamic militants, and there is no way of knowing when a militant, who is waging war in Kashmir or in Afghanistan as a Taliban fighter is actually somebody who is potentially an al-Qaida fighter or a supporter as well. And there is a lot of people in Pakistan who feel sympathy for al-Qaida. So the government of Pakistan every now and then has to prove, because of all the support they get from the United States, Pakistan gets $84 million a month in payments for the costs Pakistan is incurring in the Operation Enduring Freedom. They get $1.7 billion from the financial institutions backed by the U.S. and they get $700 million per annum as bilateral assistance.

MARGARET WARNER: But the fact, Stephen Cohen, that there have been these arrests presupposes there are a lot of senior al-Qaida figures in Pakistan. Several international newspapers were running stories this weekend saying things like al-Qaida using Pakistan as key staging post three years after 9/11. Is that still true?

STEPHEN COHEN: That is still true in that there are al-Qaida operations being run from Pakistan but I think more troublesome is the fact that al-Qaida as an organization has a close resonance to the Pakistani middle and upper classes. Not t o say the Pakistani middle classes and upper classes are al-Qaida, but socially, culturally, politically, their ideology relays a lot of support for al-Qaida in Pakistan; thats primarily because of the breakdown of the Pakistani state over the past 20 years, not because Pakistanis are inherently radical. And secondly, Id add one point to what Husain Haqqani has said in that Pakistan is deeply concerned that the relationship with the U.S. will end once the al-Qaida problem goes away. Then they know we'll cut them off at the knees and there is an incentive in Pakistan both to satisfy our concern about rounding up al-Qaida but also to keep the relationship going.

MARGARET WARNER: Steve Coll, tell us a littlebit more about these figures that were rounded up and I'm thinking of Khan; Im thinking of Galani. Is there a strong connection here? How important are they as al-Qaida figures and what does it tell you that they were all in Pakistan?

STEVE COLL: Well, I think we are still wrestling with fragments on the outside. But from the fragments we can evaluate, theres a couple of interesting aspects of this network or this cell. One is that it seems to be more closely connected with the old pre-9/11 al-Qaida leadership than many of the regional sort of franchised al-Qaida networks that we've seen since Sept. 11. We've got apparently a nephew of Mohammed in the group; youve got in Galani somebody who participated in the '98 attacks on U.S. embassies in Africa and attacks orchestrated directly by bin Laden and group in Pakistan. So this is a group that seems pretty well connected to the old al-Qaida leadership. It is intriguing for that reason perhaps it can provide some new avenues to hunt for that leadership. As to why they are in Pakistan, I think the two previous speakers have said it well. Pakistan is a very important locus for al-Qaida today. With the loss of sanctuary in Afghanistan, leaders from that era and new organizations and splinter groups have found shelter in Pakistan's cities and in the infrastructure of Islamic radicalism that the Pakistani army built up to prosecute its wars in Kashmir and to some extent in southern Afghanistan.

MARGARET WARNER: So, in other words, Husain Haqqani, for instance, the two top leaders that we've talked about, Khan and Galani, they were captured along these lawless tribal areas on the Afghan border; they were captured in Lahor and a city nearby. Do you agree with Steve Coll that their presence is not only tolerated by many elements of the local population but by local authorities?

HUSAIN HAQQANI: Absolutely. For example, Galani who was an African was caught in a town called Gujarat and Im from Karachi, and I was seen as an outsider in that city by the way I spoke the national language there. This man obviously does not speak the local language, has a physiomony that is totally different from that of the people that live there. It is like somebody showing up in Boise, Idaho and not being recognized as an outsider. I think that the infrastructure of terror that Steve referred to is a very significant one. The Pakistani intelligence services and within the Pakistani military, there are definitely elements. It is easy for General Musharraf to say before 9/11 was a different matter and because of bad economic and other interests through the United States it is a different matter but try to put yourself in the position of the average foot soldier who was told before 9/11 that this was a matter of religion, that this was a matter of faith, that he will go to heaven for supporting the Jihadys. Now he is being told to change that belief system. That change does not come that quickly.

MARGARET WARNER: So, Stephen Cohen, do you if you had to put it on a scale in terms of one to 100 in terms of how aggressive the Musharraf government is going after both al-Qaida leaders like this who are living in the city and this operation, military operation they have on the border, where would you put them on that continuum?

STEPHEN COHEN: I don't think anybody really knows, even the Pakistanis themselves may not know how effective they could be. Most of the intelligence that they've used has been picked up originally by American sources and passed on to the Pakistanis. We know that. The Pakistanis have pursued this sometimes vigorously, sometimes not vigorously but they've often simply released the people that we've identified or they've identified and with them, you know, back out on the streets begin. So I think Id give them on a scale of one to a hundred, maybe a seventy if that.

MARGARET WARNER: Steve Coll, does it appear to be more intense now and if so why?

STEVE COLL: I think somewhat more intense and if so because Musharraf himself has been the subject of these assassination attempts, which appear, based on the evidence available, to the outside, appear that theyre orchestrated in part with cooperation from people in his own security apparatus. The assassination attempts seem to have gotten his attention and he has seemed to be more aggressive since they occurred in attacking the domestic networks that he had previously left in abeyance. The Pakistan army is in a really complicated position here. They have to manage their relationship with the United States, they have got to manage their position in domestic politics, and they think they also have to preserve their options regionally, which means not tearing down the radical networks that it has used to challenge India and prosecute their politics in Afghanistan. So I think Musharraf sees himself as doing this in a sort of fine tuning way but the trouble is that when it comes to Jihadist violence, it is very difficult to manage it in such a finely tuned way.

MARGARET WARNER: And, Steve Coll, staying with you for a minute, as Im sure youre aware, there have been publications, I think in the Republic, the Economist I think this week have quoted unnamed sources as saying there is special pressure coming from the Bush administration in advance of the November election to have some high profile arrests, to announce these arrests. Have you all at the Post looked into this? Do you have any evidence that this is the case? Or is this the sort of normal election year conspiracy theories about October surprises that we've certainly seen before?

STEVE COLL: We don't have any independent confirmation of those particular reports, but nor do we have any special reason to doubt them. I mean, in some sense, it's obvious that both elites are political calendar in the United States and the significance of terrorism in the current election campaign. And the Pakistan army is aware of the American calendar and its role as a partner with the Bush administration in the hunt for al-Qaida leaders. I do think speculating a bit that the army on the whole is satisfied with the status quo, particularly in its relationship with the United States, though it has some of the anxieties that Steve Cohen referred to earlier. And so on the whole, while also managing their other interests, domestic politics and regional interests, I think that they would look to try to cooperate this summer as best they can.

MARGARET WARNER: Husain Haqqani, you said earlier when we started that you felt, this kind of goes in cycles, that every once in awhile the Pakistani government wants to persuade the U.S. Government that they're doing everything they can. Do you think that is all we are seeing right now or do you think there are other elements, either the fact of the assassination attempts, Musharraf and/or political calculations?

HUSAIN HAQQANI: The last assassination attempts on General Musharraf were in December. So why should it happen seven months later? It hasn't been a consistent pattern. The pattern we do see is that whenever there is another reason for the world to start worrying about Pakistan, for example, the nuclear issue -- Pakistan was selling weapons technology to North Korea, Iran and Libya -- or at least some Pakistanis were calling for the government-- you don't want that to be the main story. The easiest way to wag the dog then is to find somebody that you can present to the world. Now I'm not saying it is being done cynically or deliberately with that purpose that is definitely one of the purposes. Two of the gentlemen, Pakistani gentlemen who todays report say they have been arrested have been arrested three times before and released, so there is obviously of course al-Qaida hard core Arab al-Qaida elements that are responsible for previous attacks, pre-9/11 attacks and who have been identified by the Americans, the Pakistanis cannot bluff in their cases. But I think there is an element of politics and I think we should come to terms with it.

MARGARET WARNER: Stephen Cohen, how big a price domestically does Musharraf play when he does crackdown?

STEPHEN COHEN: He doesn't pay a great price. He's got to do it because I think the elites of Pakistan understand he has got to play ball with the United States; otherwise well simply drop them and turn to someplace, somebody else which I think would be a bad mistake. I think he has no alternative except to go forward with this, but they are very concerned that we will leave them, well leave them in the lurch and abandon Pakistan. And I think we do have a long-term interest in Pakistan, a short-term interest in rounding up al-Qaida but a long-term interest in preventing Pakistan from becoming another Iran or radical state with nuclear weapons.

MARGARET WARNER: Briefly, do you see evidence that the United States is doing what the 9/11 Commission report suggested, which is thinking long range and doing things --

STEPHEN COHEN: I see no evidence of that whatsoever. The size of the aid program in terms of the education and related issues is very small compared to what the need is.

MARGARET WARNER: Steve Coll, same final question to you: Do you see evidence that the U.S. Government, the current administration, is addressing long-range issues that help make Pakistan a hotbed still for Islamic extremism?

STEVE COLL: They've invested virtually all of their partnership with the government of Pakistan in a partnership with the army, focused on counterterrorism operations and do a lesser extent, on nuclear proliferation and some effort to try to get things under control in Afghanistan. The agenda that Steve refers to, social development, economic development, yes there are some elements of the aid package that addressed those issues, but on trade and other priorities the Pakistan government has the Bush administration has been less attentive and less focused on those questions.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Steve Coll, Stephen Cohen and Husain Haqqani, thank you all three.

RECAP

RAY SUAREZ: Again, the major developments of this day: In Iraq, a radical Shiite cleric promised to fight to his death in Najaf, defying a call for peace from the prime minister. As elsewhere in the country, ten Iraqis died in two separate bombings. And news services reported al-Qaida operatives may be planning to use tourist helicopters, limousines, and rental vehicles to conceal or detonate explosives in the U.S.

And an editor's note: Our recent discussion with likely voters reacting to the Democratic Convention was taped in San Francisco's Merchants Exchange Club. We regret that information was inadvertently edited out of our segment.

RAY SUAREZ: And again, to our honor roll of American service personnel killed in Iraq. We add them as their deaths are made official and as photographs become available. Here, in silence, are seven more.

RAY SUAREZ: We'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Ray Suarez. Thank you, and good night.