The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MS. WARNER: Good evening. I'm Margaret Warner in Washington.

MR. MacNeil: And I'm Robert MacNeil in New York. After tonight's News Summary, we have an extended look at the Los Angeles earthquake. Elizabeth Brackett reports on the unhappiness of black coaches with NCAA limits on sports scholarships, and we analyze the significance of Syria's new tone on peace with Israel.NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: A large earthquake caused widespread damage in southern California today. The quake occurred before dawn. Its epicenter was in Northridge in the San Fernando Valley just West of Los Angeles. It registered 6.6 on the Richter Scale. Officials say at least 24 deaths have been confirmed so far. Many buildings collapsed, trapping people inside. At least 14 people died in one Northridge apartment building. Numerous fires broke out when the quake severed gas lines. In one area, 30 mobile homes were destroyed. Water mains also broke, creating the incongruous site of flooded streets with flames fed by escaping gas. Numerous freeways collapsed or buckled. A motorcycle policeman was killed when he drove off a collapsed roadway shortly after the quake. Gov. Pete Wilson has called out the National Guard, and President Clinton has declared a disaster area. Afterwards, he spoke to reporters in the Oval Office.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: Due to the damage caused by the earthquake, I have -- by signing the document that I will sign at the end of this statement -- declared these areas of California to be a major disaster, thereby authorizing the expenditures of funds necessary for federal disaster assistance as requested by Gov. Wilson. This program will include, among other things, low interest loans to replace homes and businesses, cash grants where needed, housing assistance, energy unemployment -- emergency unemployment assistance, and funds to rebuild the highways, the schools, and other infrastructure.

MR. MacNeil: We'll have more on the earthquake story right after this News Summary. Margaret.

MS. WARNER: Nature dealt a blow to the nation's mid-section too. Though it was less sudden and horrific than the California quake, a fierce winter storm brought parts of the Midwestern U.S. to a standstill. Up to two feet of snow fell across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Businesses and schools were closed from Missouri to Pennsylvania and as far south as Georgia. In some parts of Ohio, authorities ordered all non-emergency vehicles off the road, and a state of emergency was declared in Louisville, while other parts of Kentucky were left without power. The storm followed a weekend of record cold in the Midwest and East Coast states. At least 13 deaths were blamed on the weekend cold and snow.

MR. MacNeil: Today was the official federal holiday commemorating Martin Luther King's birthday. President Clinton marked the occasion by signing an executive order to provide further federal protection against housing discrimination. He also announced the creation of 104 so-called "empowerment zones" in economically distressed areas where businesses will be eligible for tax breaks and other government aid. Mr. Clinton spoke about the legacy of Dr. King to a gathering at Howard University in Washington.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: Dr. King said men hate each other because they fear each other. They fear each other because they don't know each other. They don't know each other because they can't communicate with each other. They can't communicate with each other because they are separated from each other. We all need to think about this. We've got a lot of walls still to tear down in this country, a lot of divisions to overcome, and we need to start with honest conversation, honest outreach, and a clear understanding that none of us has any place to hide. This is not a problem of race; it is a problem of the American family.

MR. MacNeil: Today's speech followed recent criticism of the President by a number of black leaders, including the Rev. Jesse Jackson and Roger Wilkins. They said Mr. Clinton had failed to offer specific proposals to address the problems facing black America.

MS. WARNER: The Israeli government is still reacting cautiously to yesterday's meeting between President Clinton and Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad. Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres says the summit creates a more promising air for talks between Israel and Syria, but Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin hasn't said anything publicly since he was briefed on the talks by U.S. Mideast Coordinator Dennis Ross. Washington and Damascus have been far more upbeat in their assessments. Ross said Assad broke new ground by stating publicly that he was ready for full normal relations with the Jewish state, and Syria's-state run newspapers called the meeting an historic breakthrough. We'll have more on this story later in the program.

MR. MacNeil: In Russia today, Boris Yeltsin accepted the resignation of Yegor Gaidar, the man credited with formulating Russia's free market reforms. Gaidar announced yesterday he was quitting as economics minister and as deputy prime minister, saying he lacked any real power to pursue reform. We have more in this report from Ian Williams of Independent Television News.

MR. WILLIAMS: Yegor Gaidar looked gloomy in parliament where he sat all day ignoring messages sent from the prime minister and president asking him to withdraw his resignation. When he finally left, he made it clear there is no turning back.

YEGOR GAIDAR: [speaking through interpreter] No. I can't change my mind.

MR. WILLIAMS: He said he hoped other reformers will stay in the government but thinks the future of reform now hangs in the balance.

YEGOR GAIDAR: [speaking through interpreter] Much will depend on what course will be adopted by the new, restructured government.

MR. WILLIAMS: That restructuring of the government is expected within hours, but the man who launched Russia's reforms has preempted it, saying he can no longer serve in a government where decisions are being taken behind his back. The question now is whether the other key reformers, privatization chief Anatoly Chubais and finance minister Boris Fydorov will follow Gaidar out of the door, while the man picked to replace Gaidar said tonight that he is not after the job and predicted payoffs if other reformers resign. So two days after a U.S.-Russian summit was supposed to have bolstered the reforms, the main architect of those policies has resigned; others may follow; and the future direction of policy looks more uncertain than ever.

MR. MacNeil: President Yeltsin insisted in a statement that he intended to continue the process of deep and democratic reform of Russian society, its economy and political institutions.

MS. WARNER: The United States and China have averted a trade war, at least for now. A textile agreement signed in Beijing today will let the U.S. inspect Chinese textile factories suspected of making illegal shipments to the U.S. China is also agreeing that the U.S. may cut China's import quotas if repeated violations take place. These steps should make it easier to police what U.S. officials say has been a common Chinese practice, shipping textiles to the U.S. from third countries. China agreed to the deal after U.S. Trade Rep. Mickey Kantor unilaterally ordered major reductions in China's textile quota. Those reductions are now cancelled.

MR. MacNeil: That's our summary of the top stories. Now we focus on the Los Angeles earthquake, the NCAA scholarship flap, and Syria's peace intentions. FOCUS - LOS ANGELES - EARTH SHAKING NEWS

MS. WARNER: The Los Angeles earthquake is our lead segment tonight. The populous San Fernando Valley North of Los Angeles was rocked early this morning by an earthquake that measured 6.6 on the Richter Scale. Local television stations quickly revealed the quake's destructive impact.

CORRESPONDENT: Mayor Richard Riordan has declared a state of emergency. President Clinton is closely monitoring the situation in Washington.

CORRESPONDENT: We have a freeway collapse at the 14 and the 5 Interchange and Valley Freeway and the I-5 Golden State, and there is reportedly one fatality there. Cars were crushed by falling debris, we've been told, and reports coming in say at least 50 buildings here in Hollywood have also been destroyed. There have, of course, been a great many other buildings heavily damaged.

MS. WARNER: The quake struck at 4:31 in the morning. It was centered in the San Fernando Valley town of Northridge about 20 miles Northwest of downtown Los Angeles. The quake occurred along a fault 20 miles south of the San Andreas Fault. Tremors were felt as far away as San Diego, 125 miles to the South, and Las Vegas, 275 miles to the East.

CORRESPONDENT: And as we move down the building, you can see the force of this quake --

MS. WARNER: There was extensive destruction near the epicenter in Northridge. At least 14 people died at an apartment complex that was home to a number of college students. Rescue crews pulled at least three other residents from the rubble.

ERIC PEARSON, Apartment Resident: I've never heard anything like it in my life. It wasn't an earthquake at first. At first, it was like a bomb. Then afterwards, after the sounds, then the shaking kept going. Then I knew it was an earthquake. I mean, I thought it was a bomb. Everyone else in the complex heard the boom, and we couldn't tell what it was. All I knew was that all a sudden the whole complex was up over, down 12 feet. Our bed dropped. We dropped after the bed. Dressers started coming down as we dropped.

MS. WARNER: Also in Northridge, a 64-car freight train with hazardous material on board derailed outside town, and a multi- level parking lot at a shopping center collapsed into a 20 foot high pile of rubble, trapping a maintenance man inside. In the Los Angeles suburb of Stilmar, the epicenter of the 1971 earthquake, buildings burned out of control for much of the day. Seventy homes in the area were reported destroyed by fire. Area hospitals with no water or electricity and little food were so swamped with earthquake-related injuries that they were treating patients in their parking lot.

MAN: It's frightening. It's very frightening. I mean, when we got thrown out of bed, run down stairs, we was runnin' through glass, we didn't know it was there, but we didn't sustain any injuries whatsoever. I mean, bricks came out of the fireplace -- not the - - but the chimney -- the top of the chimney went through the windows, broke out the glass on the front of the house.

MS. WARNER: Water and gas lines broke apart in Granada Hills, disrupting service to many parts of the greater Los Angeles area. The region's transportation network was heavily damaged by the quake. An overpass on the Santa Monica Freeway buckled, and a section of Interstate 14 collapsed onto Interstate 5, the Golden State Freeway, in the San Fernando Valley. A Los Angeles police officer was killed as he drove his motorcycle off the end of a collapsed section of the freeway.

MOTORIST: When I felt an earthquake, I didn't know it was an earthquake at the time. I thought it was a large gust of wind coming through the canyon. I heard a loud noise. I started to apply my brakes, and a big cloud of smoke was in front of me.

MS. WARNER: In Sherman Oaks, two people were killed when a home slid down a hillside. Fires burned throughout the day in this affluent suburb in the San Fernando Valley. As aftershocks continued throughout the day, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, California Gov. Pete Wilson, and County Supervisor Yvonne Burke had this to say at an afternoon press conference.

YVONNE BURKE, L.A. County Supervisor: In terms of roads, our public works people are there. They are monitoring the whole flood system, and also we have, do have, we have had a couple of dams that have had some problems, but we are on top of it. We're working with the state and with the city of Los Angeles. We are making all of our inspectors available to the city to go into city areas to determine if buildings are safe because they will have to be determined safe before people enter once it's been determined there's some structural damage.

JIM HIGGINS, Channel 4 News, L.A.: Governor, one quick question. What are you specifically going to be doing -- what specific things are you going to be -- Jim Higgins with Channel 4 News in Los Angeles -- what specifically is the state going to do for Los Angeles?

GOV. PETE WILSON, California: We're going to do whatever the city and county request of us, whether it be providing Guardsmen to assist local law enforcement in policing areas that might otherwise be targets for looting. We will, obviously, as you have heard from Mayor Riordan, be working through Caltrans to expedite the removal of the debris and the letting of contracts insofar as that's required, but completing the inspection work to determine what the state of safety is of those structures that have been damaged and also those that are standing. One of the unhappy ironies of this situation is that as a result of the Loma Freda in 1989, the state, Caltrans I think quite logically divided all of the freeway bridges in the state into three classes: those that they put as high risk, those as medium risk, and those as low risk. And the purpose of that was to schedule work to address the greatest risk earliest. The high risk structures have been -- completed the work, retrofitting those has been completed. 90 percent of the work on the medium risk. One of the next projects, one that was actually scheduled for retrofit in February of this year was the Santa Monica Freeway.

REPORTER: Gov. Wilson, how soon can victims expect any kind of financial assistance from the state?

GOV. PETE WILSON: Well, as you know, most of the financial assistance comes from the federal government rather than the state, but they can expect it very quickly. I was very pleased when in the wake of the firesof October I think we set a record in opening the federal and state centers, the so-called DAX, for the victims of those fires. When I spoke with the President this morning and when I'd spoken earlier with James Lee Whitt, is director of FEMA, they intend to complete the paper work today, and I think they will be out here just as quickly as they possibly can.

REPORTER: Mayor, can you talk about the structural failures, the collapsings of buildings as far as building codes? Do you have any indication whether it's simply to be expected for these buildings?

MAYOR RICHARD RIORDAN, Los Angeles: No. I have -- I don't know anything. I was observing with Supervisor Burke and Gov. Wilson as we went through that you couldn't find any rhyme or reason in the buildings that were destroyed. Some of the buildings that were high risk like, you know, brick libraries, things like that, stood up very well, and some buildings that were relatively new fell down, so it's very hard to determine. It's like the freeway on 5 apparently what happened is the one section of freeway buckled and the other section slid under it, and then when it came down, all the damage was done. I don't know how you predict those things.

MR. MacNeil: We have more now on the causes and responses to today's earthquake. Ann Sobel is the associate manager of the Red Cross Chapter in Los Angeles. Robert Wesson, a geophysicist, is chief of the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering at the U.S. Geological Survey, and in Sacramento, we're joined by Kati Corsaut, an information officer for the California Office of Emergency Services. Ms. Corsaut, what's the -- it's about 12 hours now since the earthquake. What is the outstanding problem tonight?

MS. CORSAUT: Well, it appears to be that once we've, of course, dealt with the initial fires and that sort of thing, it's going to be the water supply and the freeway system, trying to get things functioning again in Southern California.

MR. MacNeil: Are there still fires burning?

MS. CORSAUT: As far as I know, there are still some burning, although my information is probably an hour or so out of date, but the water situation is very serious.

MR. MacNeil: Right. Are people known still to be trapped in any of the wreckage?

MS. CORSAUT: It's very possible. One of the things that the Office of Emergency Services does is to dispatch our urban search and rescue teams to Southern California, and that is their purpose, to see if there's anybody trapped.

MR. MacNeil: Have they been able to give estimates of the numbers of injured? We know the number of dead. Do you have an estimate of the number of injured?

MS. CORSAUT: No, we don't. At this point, we know that it's significant. We know that it's certainly far more than were killed. But we hesitate to give out numbers until we really have them confirmed.

MR. MacNeil: Right. What about the situation with gas -- the severed mains caused so many fires, as we've just seen -- is that now -- have they been able to shut those sources off yet?

MS. CORSAUT: Well, they can shut off the sources, but, of course, the problem is fixing those mains so that they can be used again. We have not just the water problem, but, as you mentioned, a utility issue. We've got to be able to get power, especially to emergency facilities, hospitals and those kinds of places. So it's really critical that all of the utilities be given priority in being repaired.

MR. MacNeil: And what are your plans tomorrow? I don't know whether this comes under your aegis, but tomorrow with so many freeways severed,how do you plan to cope with the, with the rush hour traffic into downtown Los Angeles?

MS. CORSAUT: Well, I'm sure that the California Highway Patrol and Caltrans, which is our division of highways out here, will be working 24 hours a day to do everything they can to see that the traffic is rerouted as quickly as possibly and as safely as possible.

MR. MacNeil: Well, thank you for joining us. Let's go to Ann Sobel of the Red Cross in Los Angeles. Do you hear me, Ms. Sobel?

MS. SOBEL: Yes, I do, thank you.

MR. MacNeil: What is the Red Cross -- what is being demanded of the Red Cross this evening in Los Angeles?

MS. SOBEL: Our current activities center around opening shelters for those who lost their homes to the earthquake or are not comfortable to stay in their homes during this time of uncertainty.

MR. MacNeil: How many --

MS. SOBEL: We have opened -- we have opened nine shelters throughout the San Fernando and Los Angeles areas to accomplish that goal.

MR. MacNeil: Do you have any estimate of how many people are homeless or uncomfortable in their homes?

MS. SOBEL: Actually, we do not at this time. While the daylight hours remain, many people are at their homes trying to clean-up and repairs as possible but we do expect that in the evening hours, once the sun does go down, our population in the shelters probably will rise significantly.

MR. MacNeil: What other services is the Red Cross providing?

MS. SOBEL: Well, within those shelters, we're providing food, we're providing psychological counseling, as needed, through our nursing network, and we also have nurses at the station to do minor first aid for our shelter occupants.

MR. MacNeil: The Red Cross, I suppose, has been part of the earthquake training that the various emergency services have undertaken over the last few years. Has that helped your response in this emergency?

MS. SOBEL: Absolutely. In fact, our earthquake planning goes statewide. We have units in the Northern part of the state that are prepared to assist in any way. People know what to do the moment an earthquake hits, and we are able to respond very rapidly.

MR. MacNeil: How did the earthquake feel to you personally this morning?

MS. SOBEL: Well, actually, I was not here in Los Angeles. I was in Phoenix. However, in talking to family members, I understand it was one of the scariest activities that they've ever been in. It was a different type of earthquake, that they felt like they were lifted off the ground, versus a rolling earthquake, which we oftentimes experience in the San Fernando Valley. So there was more internal damage to homes than what a lot of people are used to.

MR. MacNeil: Well, I appreciate you joining us very much. Dr. Wesson, in Washington, picking up on that, it sounded like a lifting rather than a rolling earthquake, the people who were in it said. Does that make any sense to a seismologist?

DR. WESSON: Robin, I think it can make some sense in terms of the kinds of strong motions you can experience from the earthquake may depend on how close you are. People were pretty close to this earthquake. In fact, that's the real impact of this earthquake; it's not that big an earthquake; it's just that it's in that metropolitan area. But if you're further away from the earthquake, the waves will develop into more of a rolling kind of motion. For example, two years ago in June of 1992, there was actually quite a larger earthquake in the Mohave Desert near Landers, California. And that earthquake was far enough away that it would have developed a kind of rolling motion inthe San Fernando Valley.

MR. MacNeil: What pattern of aftershocks usually follows an earthquake of this size?

DR. WESSON: Typically, Robin, we'll see very frequent aftershocks right after the main shock, and then a gradual decrease in the frequency of those aftershocks. But the aftershocks can go on for a period of days, weeks, even months. In 1971, we had an earthquake about this size, about 15 miles to the Northwest, near Silmar, and if I recall correctly, we had a magnitude 5 aftershock as late as April from that earthquake. So we have to anticipate aftershocks in the magnitude five to five and a half range, the possibility of those aftershocks for some period of time.

MR. MacNeil: Are the aftershocks strong enough to bring down or do -- cause further collapse of buildings that have been weakened or freeways that have been partly damaged?

DR. WESSON: Yes. That's a serious possibility, especially, for example, in unreinforced masonry buildings that may have been damaged by the main shock, or, in fact, any kind of structure that's been damaged by the main shock, if there is a larger aftershock, it can be further damaged. This presents a serious hazard, particularly to the rescue workers, but it's important that people in their homes or in their -- particularly if they live in a structure that may have been damaged to exercise caution.

MR. MacNeil: But that would be a problem for people going to work tomorrow morning in offices that they'd taken the holiday, going to work in office buildings or other --

DR. WESSON: Typically, there will have been examinations by building owners or in some cases by the city of Los Angeles, the building inspectors, to determine if there are any kind of significant damage, and if there is, has been damage done, the occupancy to those buildings will be restricted.

MR. MacNeil: We, who live out of California, hear all the time of the San Andreas Fault, and we can see roughly where it is on this map. This has apparently occurred on an unknown fault. How can -- how can there be in an unknown -- how can there be an unknown fault in an area as, as intensively studied as the Los Angeles Basin?

DR. WESSON: Robin, as intensely as we've studied Southern California, we by no means have identified all the potential faults that could give rise to earthquakes of this size. When we talk about the San Andreas Fault, it has the potential for generating an earthquake as large as eight or even eight and a half, which would be -- release 10,000 times the energy that this earthquake this morning released.

MR. MacNeil: That's the "big one" they talk about.

DR. WESSON: That would be the so-called "big one." And we have to expect that every few hundred years we will have earthquakes like that along the San Andreas Fault. But there are many, many faults in Southern California, some known and some unknown, some that come up to the surface, and some that may be buried, that are capable of producing an earthquake of this size, magnitude six and a half. You really have to expect that an earthquake of this size could occur almost anywhere in the LA metropolitan area.

MR. MacNeil: And, in fact, several have in the last --

DR. WESSON: That's correct.

MR. MacNeil: -- in the last two years, roughly this size.

DR. WESSON: That's correct.

MR. MacNeil: Does an earthquake like this, some miles away from the San Andreas Fault, does it in any way increase the pressure on that fault for a big earthquake, or is it just entirely unrelated?

DR. WESSON: I think it's probably entirely unrelated. There -- we do believe that there can be regional effects. For example, the Landers earthquake that I mentioned in June of 1972 seemed to influence the occurrence of earthquakes, of smaller earthquakes, throughout the Southwestern United States for some period of time, but really there's not much indication that an earthquake like this would change the potential for a larger earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.

MR. MacNeil: So the figures we've been hearing for years now that there is a -- what is it -- a 50 percent possibility of a major earthquake, i.e., as you've just mentioned, 8.3 or higher, an earthquake like today's doesn't affect that probability at all?

DR. WESSON: That's correct. It doesn't affect that probability. I think it's fair to say, Robin, that an earthquake of this size, if it were located in the worst possible place, which might be about twenty or thirty miles Southeast of where this earthquake occurred, could be, could cause as much damage as a very big earthquake on the San Andreas because the San Andreas Fault is in a relatively unpopulated area. So we need to be concerned about very large earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, but we also must be concerned about earthquakes of this size or possibly a little larger in the immediate Los Angeles area.

MR. MacNeil: Sen. Feinstein, Dianne Feinstein, the former mayor of San Francisco, said today she thinks that there's quite a pick- up in earthquake activity in California in the last ten to fifteen years. Is she right about that?

DR. WESSON: She is right about that. We have had more earthquakes in the magnitude six and larger category since about 1980 than we had in the previous couple of decades. In fact, it seems as if the general -- the period of -- the level of large earthquake -- or the rate of large -- moderate to large earthquakes in Southern California is greater over the last 10 years than it has been previously in this century.

MR. MacNeil: Do we know why?

DR. WESSON: We don't know for sure why. It may be that there was -- there was a very earthquake in 1857 along the San Andreas Fault, another large earthquake on the San Andreas Fault near San Francisco in 1906, and it may be that there was a period of relative quiet after those very large earthquakes, and we're now returning to a more normal level of seismicity.

MR. MacNeil: I know the geological survey has been doing intensive studies of the earthquake situation in California for years. We did years ago in showing the drilling long, deep holes in the ground, and putting sensitive seismic instruments down, and measuring the distances of the mountains from each other, and everything. Has any progress been made in recent years in predicting earthquakes?

DR. WESSON: We're not -- we have not made a great deal of progress in the short-term prediction of earthquakes, Robin. I think we have made significant progress in an understanding of the probabilities of earthquakes over a few decades. The probabilistic estimates you alluded to earlier are an example of that. But I must say in terms of a magnitude six and a half earthquake like this on any one of numerous possible faults in Southern California, there is no imminent prospect that we're going to be able to predict earthquakes like that in a short period of time.

MR. MacNeil: There were a number of earthquakes in the sort of three Richter range in the last few days in Santa Monica. Would they be related to this, or do you know for sure they're not related, or --

DR. WESSON: Robin, there are a lot of small earthquakes in Southern California. Our -- we jointly with Caltech operate a seismic network that locates tens of thousands of earthquakes a year in Southern California. Now, a magnitude three earthquake is large enough to be felt and would be on the larger side of that, but there are a lot of small earthquakes, and there's I don't think at this point any definitive relationship between those earthquakes last week and this earthquake.

MR. MacNeil: Does the damage to buildings and freeways today suggest that the efforts over the last 10 years or longer to reinforce all buildings and freeways and redesign the new ones is still -- hasn't gone nearly far enough yet, or you just don't know enough about it to, to really redesign them properly?

DR. WESSON: I think we know how to design buildings, speaking as a geologist, but I think the engineers and the construction industry knows how to design buildings, and I believe they know how to design freeways well enough to resist earthquakes. I -- it's not yet clear whether the -- to me, at any rate -- exactly which overpasses that were built -- rebuilt after the 1971 earthquake, whether or not, in fact, those same overpasses were damaged in this earthquake. But as Gov. Wilson alluded to earlier, there has been an attempt to strengthen the overpasses throughout California. We believe the engineers know how to do that. There are problems with the -- the building code has steadily been improved over the years. There are many buildings that were built with earlier versions of the building code and that may be susceptible. And I think those questions are going to be asked as we examine the damage that we viewed on TV today. It's likely that many of the buildings that were damaged were built under earlier versions of the building code.

MR. MacNeil: Okay. Well, Dr. Wesson, thank you very much for joining us.

DR. WESSON: Thank you, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Margaret.

MS. WARNER: Still ahead on the NewsHour, black basketball coaches and the NCAA, and what the Clinton-Assad meeting did for Mideast peace. FOCUS - DELAY OF GAME

MS. WARNER: The battle between black coaches and the NCAA, the National Collegiate Athletic Association, is next tonight. Friday, the Black Coaches Association delayed a plan to boycott the nation's college basketball games after the Justice Department agreed to mediate its dispute with the NCAA. The coaches had threatened the boycott after the NCAA refused to increase the number of athletic scholarships allowed on college teams from thirteen to fourteen. Coaches argue that fewer scholarships inevitably mean that fewer black athletes will go to college. Correspondent Elizabeth Brackett of public station WTTU has our report.

MS. BRACKETT: It's was Bryant Notree likes best, a little razzle dazzle and a score. The 17 year old senior plays his basketball in a tough, inner-city high school in Chicago. Over half the students in the all-black Simeon Vocational High School come from low income homes. Forty percent of the students graduate. Like all players on the top ranked Simeon team, Notree sees basketball as his ticket to college.

BRYANT NOTREE, Simeon Vocational High School: That's the only way I can get in college. My parents cannot afford to send me to college, and this is the reason why I'm playin' ball right now is to have a free ride to college.

MS. BRACKETT: When did you begin to start thinking about basketball as a way to go on to school?

BRYANT NOTREE: I'd say my freshman year. My father preached and preached that, umm, I would love to see you go to college on a basketball scholarship, and this is one of his dreams, and I wanted to pursue that for him.

MS. BRACKETT: It is a dream that parents and coaches try to instill in all the athletes at Simeon.

BRIAN ELROD, Simeon Vocational High School: When I first came here, they were tellin' me that if I played good, kept my grades up, that I'd get a scholarship, so that was really my goal, just to play hard, get good grades, and hope one day to get a scholarship.

MS. BRACKETT: Brian Elrod has kept his grades up. His C+ average and his ACT scores will qualify him for an athletic scholarship. He says without a scholarship, he might have gone on to a junior college near home. But now he is hoping to go to a four-year college that plays Division 1 basketball. It is in high schools like these where scholarships mean the difference between going on to college or not. This year all five seniors on the team will go on to college with scholarship help. And it's been that way here for at least the last 12 years. Coach Bob Hambric says every student who has played for him has gone on to college with a basketball scholarship. And for most, that is the only way they could have gone on. He now worries that the actions by the NCAA will cut down on the opportunities available to his players.

BOB HAMBRIC, Coach, Simeon Vocational High School: I'm seeing they're raising the requirements for college entry, and they're limiting the number of scholarships, you know. Before you used to get just, get a C average, maintain that, and you would have a scholarship. Now they want you to get a C+ average, make a certain score on a test that's ridiculous, you know, because it doesn't guarantee results, you know, so it's very important. It has been a factor. And kids, a lot of them are working as hard they can now, what about the child that's marginal? There's a chance that some marginal ball players will not get a chance to get a scholarship.

MS. BRACKETT: Athletic scholarships are critical to the basketball program at Chicago State University. The team plays Division 1 basketball, but this year not very well. Chicago State has won one of their fourteen games. Coach Rick Pryor doesn't like that record, but he says the opportunities athletics provide don't change with a winning or losing team, and he sees the NCAA as cutting back on those opportunities.

RICK PRYOR, Coach, Chicago State University: The non- reinstatement of the scholarship is just another issue in combination with several that have suggested to us that they are targeting a specific group in terms of denying opportunities.

MS. BRACKETT: What group is that?

RICK PRYOR: The African-American community, the minority student athlete.

MS. BRACKETT: And how important is that opportunity for those students?

RICK PRYOR: I would say that it's so important that it's not limited to just the students. It is the communities in which they come from and the African-American community at large. Those are opportunities that the end results turn into jobs, turn into careers, turn into families for professional status. And to not have those opportunities, the alternatives, the alternatives that are available to them look very bleak.

MS. BRACKETT: Chicago State is a major resource for the African- American community. 84 percent of the students here are black. Enrollment figures have jumped up in the last two years. But Chicago State still struggles with funding. Athletic Director Al Avant says he voted against the reinstatement of the 14th scholarship at the NCAA meeting for a very simple reason.

AL AVANT, Athletic Director, Chicago State University: It's becausewe have 13 other teams that we must fund, and so that's why we were giving 13 even when it was available. Like there's 14 available this year and we are giving 13, So it's economics with us.

MS. BRACKETT: So you mean the school cannot financially afford to give 14 even if you were allowed to do that?

AL AVANT: In budgeting we think it's better to spread our money around to support some of the other sports same as the men's basketball. Every team I have would like to have more scholarships.

MS. BRACKETT: And it's not just other teams. Since athletics are not self-supporting at Chicago State, the basketball team must compete with the rest of the school for scholarship dollars. Avant says the Music Department complains bitterly about having only two scholarships, not enough to help young musicians improve their opportunity for an education. Scholarship player Jason Hodges says he thinks the basketball team deserves its scholarships.

JASON HODGES, Chicago State University: We bring in money. I know we go play places where they might pay us $40,000 to come to their place, so that's bringing in money, that's revenue to the school. It doesn't only go to basketball; it goes to the whole school. Therefore, I feel we should have more scholarships than the Music Department unless they're giving great big old concerts, but you know, we're bringing in money, so that's why I think we deserve the scholarships.

MS. BRACKETT: Poor graduation rates are a problem at Chicago State, but they are better for athletes than for the student population at large; 25 percent for athletes, 8 percent for all students. Coach Pryor says the rates are another reason he feels strongly enough to support a boycott.

COACH PRYOR: If it is proved to be the most effective, certainly I would support it. Again, my whole objective in dealing with these young student athletes is to, to do what's best for them not only for the short-term but for the long-term. If a boycott proved to be the most effective response to this issue, then certainly I would support it.

MS. BRACKETT: His views have an impact on his players.

DESMOND RICE, Chicago State University: I would support the boycott 100 percent because it's something that would, like I said, lift the consciousness of more than just the NCAA and the people around it. I think other people would try to get in and help us also, you know, to maintain the scholarship. So I, I feel that if we did boycott, I'll be behind it 100 percent.

UNIDENTIFIED BASKETBALL PLAYER: I wouldn't like to see it, you know. I support them in everything they do, but the boycott's kind of scary, because this is my last year, you know. I would like to play my games. I'm not sure how they would go off if they boycotted, I don't know if we would still play or not, but, you know, I hope, I hope they could solve this before a boycott comes about.

MS. BRACKETT: At DePaul University in Chicago, Coach Joey Meyer was also upset about fewer scholarships, and he was upset about this game against St. Louis University, DePaul's second loss in a row just after the team had won nine straight. 70 percent of Meyer's roster is African-American. Graduation rates for black players from DePaul are 33 percent versus 100 percent for white players. But Meyer says the issue goes beyond race.

JOEY MEYER, Coach, DePaul University: It's a denial of opportunity to anybody. I mean, it just depends who the scholarship's going to go to. You know, if it's going to go to a black or a white or a Mexican -- who knows what that scholarship - - so it's more of an opportunity. That's why I think most coaches are saying it's not a black-white thing; it's a player's thing; it's a coach's thing. And that's where the issues are being drawn.

MS. BRACKETT: What would a boycott mean in the middle of your season? Could you really do that in good conscience?

JOEY MEYER: I'm not sure a boycott means players. I mean, it could just simply means the coach, and the way we're playing right now, it might help us a little bit. I ought to think about boycotting. Maybe that'll be something that'll stir our team up a little bit, but seriously, I think more in my line of thinking, a boycott's more the coaches than it is players.

MS. BRACKETT: The stakes do become higher if players join the boycott, especially for schools that bring in significant revenues from television contracts. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany.

JIM DELANY, Commissioner, Big Ten Conference: Well, the Big Ten Conference has primary responsibility for managing the game from the standpoint of the rules of the game, so, you know, we would try to instruct our officials to apply the rules of the game. If a team wasn't on the court in a timely way, that would result in a forfeit. If both teams failed to be there, that would result in a double forfeit. We would also have the responsibility to work with the people who owned the rights, the television rights for these games, and work with them to come out with an outcome that put them in the same situation they were before they bought the games. There's no reason they should take a loss. It would be our loss, and then I think we'd have to work out a system whereby the institution that is responsible for not fielding the team carried that total burden.

MS. BRACKETT: For the moment, the season continues in full swing from high school to college. Last Friday, the Black Coaches Association announced a delay in a boycott, but the emphasis was on delay. The issue, they say, is a long way from being resolved. FOCUS - SEARCH FOR PEACE

MS. WARNER: Next tonight, we focus on the prospects for peace between Israel and Syria, the two most powerful adversaries in the Middle East. These two long-time enemies have been talking with each other ever since the Madrid Peace Conference of 1991, but up till now they've had little to show for it. Syria wants Israel to return the Golan Heights which Israel captured in the 1967 War. Israel wants Syria to sign a peace treaty with the Jewish state. Yesterday, President Clinton tried to light a fire under the peace talks when he met with Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad in Geneva. Did the Clinton-Assad meeting change anything? We'll ask two journalists who have been covering the talks. Hisham Melhem is Washington correspondent for the As-Safir Newspaper in Lebanon. David Makovsky is diplomatic correspondent for the Jerusalem Post and a special correspondent for U.S. News & World Report. Welcome, gentlemen. Thanks for being with us. Mr. Melhem, what, in your view, was the significance of yesterday's meeting? Did it change anything?

MR. MELHEM: It has the potential of changing the whole situation in the Middle East, the whole strategic situation in the Middle East if the Israel's respond to President Assad's offer in a commensurate way. What Assad -- President Assad said yesterday is very significant, and it represents a qualitative move in the Syrian position, a qualitative development forward in the Syrian position. It is, nonetheless, of course, consistent with Syria's very well known position on, on the peace talks.

MS. WARNER: Well, explain exactly what it was he said that was so significant.

MR. MELHEM: He said clearly we are ready to sign peace now. Of course, the terms for that peace are very well known, and he did articulate them although he went a step further when he talked about a future in which there would be peaceful relations, normal, peaceful relations among all the states in the region, and --

MS. WARNER: And that's what Israel's been waiting to hear.

MR. MELHEM: And that's what Israel has been waiting to hear. At least that's what they've been telling us publicly that they would like to hear from the Syrians. Now, obviously, we would have the making of a breakthrough only if the Israelis respond in kind. Then, then one can talk about a changed equation in the Middle East. Now, if the Israelis are going to say we would have to produce the referendum, then the Syrians would say this is a non- starter. This is the Golan; it belongs to Syria. This is not a piece of furniture that the Israelis own and they put it on the auction block. This is not going to be taken seriously in Damascus. It will be seen as a delaying tactic.

MS. WARNER: Of course, that would be way down the line, wouldn't it?

MR. MELHEM: Right.

MS. WARNER: After they negotiated some deal. Do you agree, Mr. Makovsky, that this is the seeds for a breakthrough here?

MR. MAKOVSKY: I think we've taken a first step. I think the music has gotten better. I think we need to know more lyrics. Essentially, you know, Assad didn't say what Israelis wanted to hear about open borders, diplomatic relations, tourism. He let Clinton say this would happen. He didn't say under what conditions. I think Hisham is right. The terms haven't changed, and I think that means linking it up to perhaps Palestinian demands down the road. And so there's a lot of ambiguity here, and, therefore, we still have a ways to go, and I think what's needed is the next step. If we try to say where do we go from here, is the public wants to know in Israel, is this safe essentially? Can we give back an area that was a launching pad by Syria for wars against Israel, it's a strategic plateau, and if we can satisfy that thing, is it safe, and work out security arrangements, and I would say when Assad says a strategic decision for peace, does that mean reorienting himself more towards the West and away from his ally, Iran, working against peace? If he could convince the public on those points, in my view, he's got really the seeds for a breakthrough.

MS. WARNER: Well, explain something to me. Both Washington and Damascus in the days since have been promoting this as the big breakthrough but the reaction of Israel has been very cautious. Rabin I don't think has said anything since he was briefed on the meeting by the U.S. special negotiator. Why?

MR. MAKOVSKY: I think first of all in a certain way this half step is good for, for everyone. In a sense, Rabin doesn't even need a breakthrough at this moment because he's got his hands full. There's a full plate on the Palestinian issue. We've got to implement the Gaza-Jericho Accord that was signed at the White House lawn in September with Mr. Arafat, and I think that with that done, then -- and hopefully the security arrangements issue, which I mentioned, will be dealt with in the months ahead, beginning with the Washington peace talks next week. Then by springtime we can move forward. I think just as Assad is very coy and cautious because he wants to draw up the Israeli position more, the Israelis, I think, are also cautious to say let's resolve the Palestinian issue. Domestically, Robin, the prime minister's losing support politically, and I think he just -- he wants to nail that down. But he wants a deal.

MR. MELHEM: Conceivably, these negotiations with the Palestinians could be dragged on indefinitely, and the Israelis are capable of doing so, and we have seen signs that they are doing so. I mean, obviously, you are talking about simultaneous negotiations on four tracts, simultaneous tracts. Now, if the Israelis are willing to accept issuing a declaration of principle with the Syrians, stating clearly and explicitly that we envision the future in which there will be total withdrawal from the Golan Heights, then return for normal political relations as Assad said, then you have the making of a breakthrough. Then you break down the negotiations into separate committees that would deal with the various aspects of the peace, of the peace, the areas that we call modalities of peace. But as long as Israelis are not committed, themselves, clearly and exclusively, to total withdrawal from the Golan Heights, they don't use the salami tactics, slice the Golan Heights, say we want to maintain half of it, 50 percent or even 40 percent of it, I cannot conceive for a moment that Assad would even consider such a thing, or any government in Syria.

MS. WARNER: Let me ask Mr. Makovsky, do you agree though with Mr. Melhem that the ball is now in Israel's court?

MR. MAKOVSKY: No. I think the ball's in the air. I mean, I think essentially we -- the public, again, wants to know, is it safe? I think Rabin is willing to stake his whole political future on this deal with Syria if he thinks the terms are right, and I respectfully disagree with Hisham in the sense of foot dragging on the Palestinian tract. If Arafat would have agreed to terms that his own negotiators reached in Cairo with Israel, we would have had a deal by now, and my sense is the Gaza-Jericho thing will be wrapped up very shortly. I think it's very interesting that the breakthrough in Oslow in August happened at the very time that there looked like there was a chance of progress. Arafat thought maybe the Syrians were pushing ahead, and then he made the deal. And maybe the same thing is going to happen now. He sees that Syria's moving forward, and maybe he will finally get off the barn, so to speak, and reach an agreement with Israel. I think we're talking about a man of --

MR. MELHEM: -- is not really a race between the Syrians and the Palestinian, and we're talking about simultaneous tracts.

MR. MAKOVSKY: I agree.

MR. MELHEM: Each tract has its own pace and peculiarity. I think if the ball is in the air, the trajectory is clear. It's directed towards the Israelis. Now, either the Israelis will pick it up and deal with it, and rise to the occasion, it seems to me, or we might lose this opportunity. All I'm trying to say is here you have somebody in Damascus who can deliver. Here you have someone who's telling you that this is a vision for the future in this area, a vision that has to be based on reciprocity and not, and not on peace that is imposed by force. If the Israelis make the mistake of treating Syria the way they've been treating the PLO or treating Hafez Assad the way they've been treating Yasser Arafat, we will reach a deadline soon. This is not going to work.

MS. WARNER: Let me ask the two of you about Rabin and Assad, two members of the same generation who have been committed to fighting each other their whole lives. Mr. Makovsky, do you think Yitzhak Rabin has made the sort of personal transformation that it will take to make peace with Syria and to give back the Golan?

MR. MAKOVSKY: I believe he is the DeGaulle of Israel, the warrior turned peacemaker, and I believe, again, if the terms are right, he knows what the price is. He knows ultimately the price is full withdrawal from the Golan, but he has to know the terms are right. He's 71 years old. He's given his life to the defense of the country, and I think he wants to leave it in a position that's more secure than when he found it, and, you know, he was the head of the -- the chief of staff in the Six Day War when Israel won the territory, and you have to be convinced that it's secure. And I would just say -- I mean, I think the whole world understands we're talking about giving up a tangible asset here, an area which was a launching pad of attack. To work out security arrangements I don't think is too much to ask for someone who's giving something tangible for something intangible, and that's the promise of peace.

MS. WARNER: What's your assessment of Rabin on this question, whether he's ready to make this step?

MR. MELHEM: He may be ready but I mean, I haven't seen signs that he is ready to make that plunge. Rabin is too cautious also, and I think if he makes the move, we would see that the Syrians will reciprocate. But again, the Israelis have been telling us for a long time if the Arabs -- if the Arabs only negotiate with us face to face, if the Arabs recognize Israel, and the Arabs accept normal relations. We have done all this, and what -- at times I believe that the Israelis don't want us only to accept them but they want us to fall in love with them. This is not going to happen. That's not the issue here. The issue here is if they are going to withdraw and the Golan, I don't want to go back through history, the Golan -- I don't want to go back through history, but the Golan -- the Golan was not a launching pad against Israelis - - the Israelis -- if you read Need's history of the conflict on the border between Israel and Syria -- and he's an Israeli scholar -- he documents that in most cases it was the Israelis who enter, do incursions on the de-militarized zone that led to the Syrian response. But that's another point.

MS. WARNER: Yes, that is. Mr. Melhem, let me ask you now about Hafez Al-Assad. Do you think he's made this in his own mind and his own heart, he is ready to do what would have been unthinkable to him five years ago, make peace with the Jewish state?

MR. MELHEM: For those of us who have been watching, Israel is a very cautious, shrewd, calculating, at times brilliant political chess player. In his mind he knows that he has to deal with a reality called Israel. He doesn't love it; most of us don't. But that's a fact of life that he recognizes, but the Syrians, and particularly Assad, is almost obsessed with the issue of respect, pride, reciprocity. He and other Arabs believe that there is room for Arabs and Jews in the Middle East, regardless of how Israel came into being, and although it's very painful for us Arabs to know or to realize that Israel's establishment was at the expense of dismantling the Palestinian society. All right. If there is room for Arabs and Jews in the Middle East, the question is the kind of relationship. Is it -- are we Arabs going to be dominated by a powerful Israel militarily and economically? To this, Assad would say no. If we are going to live in a rough situation, parity, equilibrium, in which we will not be threatened existentially not the Israeli state but we are certainly existentially, but those who live in Damascus, feel that they are threatened existentially, Assad, himself, is fond of reminding people when they visit him in downtown Damascus that his palace -- he does live in a palace -- is -- or the outskirts of Damascus are within the range of -- long range of Israelis artillery. I'm not talking about missiles. So again the Israelis have to recognize the Arabs do have legitimate existential concern, and the Syrians will insist maybe unlike Arafat on reciprocity, and this is a very crucial issue for them.

MR. MAKOVSKY: I'd just like to say without getting into history a lot, the difference is that Israel has been sitting on the Golan now for, what, 19 years, and there hasn't been this artillery bombardment in Damascus. When the Syrians were, it wasn't the case, but let's leave the past behind us in terms of Assad. I'm agnostic on the question. I would like to believe that, but the reason I'm agnostic is that he has to convince the public. Democracy of Israel, it's not enough. Rabin is not the Assad of Jerusalem. He has to understand that. He has to convince the people. I keep coming back to that. Polling data shows 80 percent of Israelis don't believe that giving up the Golan means jeopardizing their security even in return for full peace. So he's got a real sales job to do, and the reason why I'm less than totally optimistic is that he's not Anwar Sadat, he's not the Egyptian leader, that he understood that and made the leap, went to Jerusalem.

MR. MELHEM: So that was the exception. It was not the norm.

MR. MAKOVSKY: But ultimately, and we hear it today in the Knesset, Rabin's deputies have said that any deal would be subject to a referendum, that fundamentally changes the calculus. I believe ultimately the public will come along, but they need to be convinced that a deal needs to be done, and he has to bring gestures along. I would say getting Israeli journalists, barring them from the press conference yesterday was not a good start. He's not a long road ahead.

MS. WARNER: I'm afraid that's all the time we have. Thank you both. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Again, the main story of this Monday was the Los Angeles earthquake. It struck before dawn, buckling freeways and starting more than a hundred fires. It measures 6.6 on the Richter Scale and was followed by several strong aftershocks. The death toll so far stands at 24. President Clinton signed a disaster declaration this afternoon, making available relief assistance from the federal government. Good night, Margaret.

MS. WARNER: Good night, Robin. That's the NewsHour for tonight. We'll see you tomorrow with more on the Los Angeles earthquake. I'm Margaret Warner. Thank you, and good night.