The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. Leading the news this Monday, there was widespread violence following Sunday's coup in Burma, Haiti was quiet after its military takeover and Hurricane Gilbert spawned heavy flooding in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. We'll have our details in our News Summary in a moment. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: After the News Summary, we focus first on the weekend military coups [Focus - Double Coup] in Burma and Haiti, updating and analyzing both situations. Then we look back [Focus - Weathering The Storm] at the devastation caused by Hurricane Gilbert and how well the warnings systems worked. Tom Bearden reports from Texas and we discuss the situations in Jamaica and Mexico with the National Hurricane Center and the Red Cross. Finally on the stump tonight [Series - '88 - On The Stump] excerpts from a speech by Dan Quayle. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: Soldiers fired on demonstrators in Rangoon and elsewhere today. Some 150 people were reported killed. The dead were among thousands of students, Buddhist Monks and others who took to the streets to protest Sunday's military coup. The government claimed the protesters were a violent and unruly mob. Wire service reports said eye witnesses said the soldiers fired into peaceful demonstrations. In Washington, State Department Spokesman Charles Redman deplored the violence.

CHARLES REDMAN, State Department: Whatever the country's political problems, they cannot be solved by Burmese killing one another. The United States urges Burmese military authorities immediately to stop shooting at demonstrators and calls upon those demonstrating to refrain from provocative actions. The United States further calls on military authorities to enter into discussions with opposition leaders on arrangements for an early transition to multiparty democracy which Burmese in overwhelming numbers are demanding and which the authorities say they are prepared to grant.

MR. LEHRER: Haiti was calm today after its Saturday night coup. An army general, Prosper Avril, assumed control of the government. He ousted another general, Lt. General Henri Namphy, who was expelled to the Dominican Republic. Some six people were reportedly killed in that takeover. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: In Poland today, there was a dramatic sequel to the recent waves of strikes and demands for the recent waves of strikes and demands for the legalization of the Solidarity Union. The Prime Minister resigned over his handling of the economy. We have a report by Roderick Pratt, Worldwide Television News.

RODERICK PRATT: Zbigneu Mesher's speech to the Polish Parliament was an emotional one. It was basically to say that he had failed. He had made progress in modernizing the economy since he took office in November 1985, he said, but had failed to control inflation. He said that being guided by the interests of the state, he was offering the cabinet's resignation, but the problems would not be solved by a change of government, that his government had been criticized by Gov. Yurelsetzsky himself because it had failed to implement vital reforms. The shadow of 60 percent inflation lent power to a massive demonstration at the Jasno Gorum Monastery on Sunday, a mixture of politics and religion that has become familiar in Poland in recent years. The faith and the worship go on, but the Solidarity Leader, Lech Walesa, was able to point to an achievement that might make things much easier, and assurance from the country's Communist leaders that his union, Solidarity would soon have a place in the life of Poland again.

MR. MacNeil: There is more regional tension in the Soviet Union. Open fighting between Azerbaijanees with guns and knives. Tasse said 25 people were wounded yesterday in clashes in Nagorno- Karabakh, the enclave inside Azerbaijan, which Soviet Armenians want restored to them, demands Moscow has rejected.

MR. LEHRER: Hurricane Gilbert is gone, but not its after effects. The storm spawned at least 41 tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma, killing three people. Homes and businesses were severely damaged. There was also heavy rain and flooding in Texas, and as far as Illinois. Oklahoma was particularly hard hit. Flooding forced the evacuation of about a dozen residents of King Fisher, Oklahoma. Others were warned to be ready to leave after eight inches of rain fell in ten days, threatening to raise local waters to four feet above flood stage. Fresh fires also hit Northern California. Fourteen thousand acres were burned near Vacaville and Reading, North of San Francisco. Twenty-four houses and buildings were destroyed and three hundred and fifty people had to be evacuated.

MR. MacNeil: Israel joined the space club today, launching its first satellite into orbit and becoming the only space power in the Middle East. A small 340 pound communications satellite was carried into low earth orbit by a Comet rocket. It will orbit East to West and send back information before about a month before burning out. The U.S. said the octagon-shaped satellite would probably have military applications but doubted it would be used for spying. The Arab League called the satellite a serious threat to the Arab world. Swedish researchers today released satellite pictures which they said showed secret Saudi Arabian installations of Chinese made intermediate range ballistic missiles. They said the base area was in an oasis 285 miles south of Riat from which the missiles could reach most targets in the Middle East. Last March, the Saudis confirmed that they had bought a number of Chinese missiles with a range of 1900 miles.

MR. LEHRER: And in the U.S. Presidential Campaign today George Bush accused Michael Dukakis of having raised taxes in Massachusetts. Dukakis accused Bush of having raised taxes in Massachusetts. Dukakis accused Bush of running on a call for selfishness. Bush spoke to a Chamber of Commerce group in Ben Salem, Pennsylvania.

VICE PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH, GOP Presidential Candidate: The question of attitude, it's here that I think my opponent fails, and frankly since he's never been in business, I don't think he understands the full effect of his own anti-business scheme. The question of attitude. In his first campaign for Governor, my opponent promised never to raise taxes, and once elected, he pushed through a package of tax increases that added up to the largest tax increase in Massachusetts history.

MR. LEHRER: Dukakis spoke his words in a talk at a campaign rally in Little Rock, Arkansas.

GOV. MICHAEL DUKAKIS, Dem. Presidential Candidate: Is there anyone here or across the country who thinks the key to our economic future is to go from Voodoo Economics to Son of Voodoo? Of course not. We've got to do better than that. We don't need a warmed over call to selfishness. We need a new call to greatness. We need leaders to understand that just as there are no limits to what our citizens can do, so there are no limits to what America can do, if we work together, if we respect each other and care about each other, and if each of us is willing to bear his or her fair share of the burden that will be required to lead this country into the next decade, into this century as the greatest nation on the face of the earth.

MR. MacNeil: That's our News Summary. Now it's on to the military coups in Burma and Haiti, the aftermath of Hurricane Gilbert, and a Dan Quayle stump speech. FOCUS - DOUBLE COUP

MR. LEHRER: This was a weekend for military coups. There were two of them, one in distant Burma, the other in nearby Haiti, and we're going to look at both of them tonight. In both countries, the military coups were more of the same since each has gone through four rulers in six months. Burma is first. The primary result there has been fighting between the army and street demonstrators. Earlier today I talked with John Fredenburg of the U.S. Embassy in Rangoon, the Burmese capital. I asked him if the city was in a state of paralysis.

JOHN FREDENBURG: Yes, I think that's a fair word to use. That's been true for some time at least as far as government operations are concerned. Most ministries in Rangoon have been only nominally open for the last couple of weeks, only working level staff have really been on strike, and that's a situation that is just getting worse as time goes on.

MR. LEHRER: What do you know about the violence earlier in the day?

MR. FREDENBURG: Well, the military government, the military took over Sunday at about 4 in the afternoon. There were several reports of gunfire. They declared a curfew 8 o'clock that same evening and there were reports of gunfire. In fact, we heard, embassy staff could hear gunfire from their homes that evening. And then yesterday morning there were several more reports that we heard from various points of the city of the troops firing on demonstrators and including one incident that happened right outside the embassy.

MR. LEHRER: What happened in that incident outside the embassy?

MR. FREDENBURG: Very briefly, there was a small group of 100 or so people out in front of the U.S. Embassy. The embassy for the past few weeks has been one of the main gathering spots for the opposition rallies that are frequently held in front of the embassy. At the same time, there was another group of about oh, a thousand or so marching with banners and such down, oh, coming around the corner, down Merchant Street and headed away from the embassy. That was about 10:45 yesterday morning. There had been troops out on Merchant Street just before that. They had moved off Merchant Street and were really out of our sight and as that large demonstration was around the corner, all of a sudden, just about 10:45, very intense firing broke out, automatic rifle fire, and then heavier automatic weapons that were very intense for about two minutes.

MR. LEHRER: The other reports we are getting are that the soldiers fired at these crowds and that the crowds were unarmed and they were peacefully demonstrating. Does that jive with what you have seen and heard?

MR. FREDENBURG: Yes, essentially. The group out in front of the embassy, as far as I can remember, did not have any weapons. There may have been one or two who were carrying spears or knives. Certainly there was no one who had firearms in that group immediately in front of the embassy that I can see.

MR. LEHRER: Do you and your colleagues there in the embassy expect this kind of violence to continue? What are the prospects?

MR. FREDENBURG: Well, I hate to guess, I just don't know, but I would say since there were reports of shots being fired and explosions maybe, orders, or heavier weapons of that type until late last night, it would seem that it's going to continue a while longer.

MR. LEHRER: Some analysis now from David Steinberg, a consultant to the Asia Society who has lived in Burma and written two books about the country. Mr. Steinberg, what do you believe was behind this military coup?

DAVID STEINBERG, Consultant: Well, we usually think of military coups as against the government. This is a military coup in favor of the government. It's a last ditch effort by the government to maintain itself in power.

MR. LEHRER: A military government that's been in power for 26 years.

MR. STEINBERG: That's right. We've seen, this is the fourth in the change of leadership, but the same party backed by the military has remained in power all this time.

MR. LEHRER: So who were they essentially revolting against?

MR. STEINBERG: They wanted to ensure, I believe, the ability to control these mobs which have been demonstrating very spontaneously for a liberal political system and the solution to their economic problems as well.

MR. LEHRER: So within the military then it was kind of hard liners versus softer liners and the hard liners engineered the coup?

MR. STEINBERG: The hard liners I think won, yes, and probably under the overall influence of General Nez Winn who has been close to all of military and civilian leaders since the change in July.

MR. LEHRER: In other words, you think he's still running things?

MR. STEINBERG: Behind the scenes I would think. As long as he's in the country, he's going to run things.

MR. LEHRER: Well, then what is the change, does the change mean any change?

MR. STEINBERG: The change means I think that there will be more violent demonstrations. We have already seen that there have been a number of deaths. We don't know how many but running in the hundreds probably.

MR. LEHRER: Just to interrupt one second, I asked Fredenburg specifically, we didn't have it in the piece that I ran, specifically how many people did he know or had he heard had been killed, and I mentioned the figure that the wire services have used, 150, and he said it has to be at least that number. But he had no way to confirm that.

MR. STEINBERG: The government has already understated the deaths and I would think it would be at least that as well. And the opposition leaders have all stated that they intended to ignore the martial law ruling and continue the demonstrations until an interim government is established so there can be a multiparty election system.

MR. LEHRER: Now what is the likelihood of that happening, this interim multi-party government?

MR. STEINBERG: I think there will be multi-party elections. The question is whether they would be credible if a military regime controlled them. The military has run Burma through the Burma Socialist Program Party, the only legal party under the constitution, and the military has had the leadership of the party and 2/3 of the military are actually in the party, so when you talk about the military, you are talking about the party. If you ask them to run the election, then the results cannot be credible.

MR. LEHRER: In one of the prior changes, I think it was a couple of weeks ago, they promised to hold elections within three months, is that right?

MR. STEINBERG: That's correct.

MR. LEHRER: And there was a lot of skepticism then along the lines that you just said and you believe that's justifiable skepticism?

MR. STEINBERG: I think that's true. I think we are in for a very difficult period in the short term. I think eventually Burma will have again a multi-party system.

MR. LEHRER: What makes you think so?

MR. STEINBERG: Well, I think the Burmans really want this. They have had it in the past. It didn't work terribly efficiently, but the military I think has abused the trust that the people had in the military and they had considerable trust. Remember in 1958 to '60, the military had an interim government that worked very effectively. It got out of power, returned government to the civilians, but now the military has been in power too long, too many new elites have been built up over this period.

MR. LEHRER: There were reports here again the last couple of weeks that some of the key military leaders were defecting from the military leadership and were, in effect, siding with the demonstrators, those who wanted democracy more or less, but those reports may have been wrong, is that right?

MR. STEINBERG: Well, you've asked the critical question and that is, how solid is the military behind the government, and we don't know. We know there are 18 people plus General Sa Mong who have signed a statement and they are the leaders of the coup, but whether the regional military commanders, whether the people under the regional military commanders, whether the younger graduate of the Defense Services Academy are quite well educated, better than the older military, what they will think is unclear.

MR. LEHRER: The other question that has been raised throughout this period is whether or not the opposition while you say is very strong, the reports have been that they are terribly disorganized and there are at least four or five parties, and factions, et cetera, and the speculation in the past has been until they get together, nothing substantial is going to happen. Do you agree with that?

MR. STEINBERG: Well, I agree that they have been fragmented. Power in Burma has always been personalized. I don't think it will change. The opposition will have to get together. It hasn't, as you say, until now, but I think that as the situation becomes more dire it will force them to be together at least for an interim period. And you may get another coalition as you had in the early days of independence under the Anti-Fascist People's Freedom Leagues, which was an umbrella political organization.

MR. LEHRER: I know it's very difficult to answer this question from many thousand miles away, but with your knowledge of Burma and of the situation there, does it make sense to you that soldiers would fire point blank into a peaceful demonstration?

MR. STEINBERG: It makes sense that they might for a very short period in small numbers, but if this mounts and if this continues, then I don't think they will any longer. And there has been plenty of evidence around the world where this has been the case, the student revolution in Korea in 1960, the Turkish Revolution in 1960, where the military just eventually refused to fire at the students or at the populace, and I think this may happen again in Burma.

MR. LEHRER: You think maybe that the hope here is that the message will get over and scare the demonstrators off the streets.

MR. STEINBERG: That's what the military wants.

MR. LEHRER: That's what the military wants. Your feeling is that isn't going to happen.

MR. STEINBERG: I don't think it's going to happen. I think it's gone too far. I think they made a series of major errors, putting Seng Winn in in command after Gen. Newin stepped down.

MR. LEHRER: Just kind of the continuation of what was already there.

MR. STEINBERG: Right, and then man most hated among all of the leaders, and then trying to save the situation with Dr. Maun Maun who was a good man but known to be very very close to Newin and it was already too late.

MR. LEHRER: Dr. Maun Maun is the guy who was replaced on Sunday at least in a technical way.

MR. STEINBERG: That's right. Yes.

MR. LEHRER: But he was also a continuation, right?

MR. STEINBERG: He's a continuation. He was a civilian. When they talked about a civilian government, that was really not true. He was a good man, a legal scholar and so forth, but he's been so close to Nez Winn that he had no credibility as being independent and I'm afraid no one has any credibility of being independent anymore in that group.

MR. LEHRER: So more people are going to have to die before --

MR. STEINBERG: I am afraid so. It's a sad situation for a people who are very very good and valiant and a country that is potentially very rich.

MR. LEHRER: Finally, there have been no reports thus far of the other side shooting back at the soldiers, I mean, at the opposition. Is the opposition completely unarmed? There are no guerrilla movements, those kinds of things, that are prepared to cause real trouble?

MR. STEINBERG: There are no urban guerrilla movements. There are guerrilla movements and insurrections. They are on the border. They are quite different and related to this particular problem, although the solution tothis problem, if there is one, will affect the minorities who are in a revolt, or the Burma Communist Party for that matter which is on revolt, but they are not in the urban areas where the demonstrations are taking place, so the opposition is, in fact, unarmed.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Steinberg, thank you very much.

MR. STEINBERG: Thank you very much.

MR. LEHRER: Now to Coup 2 in Haiti in the Caribbean. It's the latest in a series of takeovers that have been going on now for more than two years. Some background now from Correspondent Kwame Holman.

KWAME HOLMAN: This time it was the non-commissioned officers, members of the Palace Guard, who pulled off the coup. Their leader and Haiti's new President is Lt. General Prosper Avril. The soldiers said they were acting in response to the latest spate of violence in a country that has seen more bloodshed than balloting in its political history. The target of the violence reportedly carried out by elements of the old Tan Tan Makut Terrorist Squads was a priest who strongly opposed the military government. He escaped but 11 of his parishioners were killed in an attack on his church. Ousted in the weekend coup was Gen. Henri Namphy. He had come to power just two years ago, ousting Jean- Claude Bayvidak Delvalle, whose family had ruled Haiti for more than 30 years. At the beginning of the year, Namphy gave up power to a civilian government chosen in an election which drew very few voters, but within six months Namphy deposed the civilian President. The United States denounced that coup as a serious blow to hopes for democracy in Haiti. Yesterday's coup drew a more cautious response, but the U.S. Government awaits further action before it judges the new Haiti regime.

MR. LEHRER: Some perspective on the Haitian situation now from William Jones, former U.S. Ambassador to Haiti. He now practices law here in Washington. Mr. Ambassador, what do you believe prompted this coup?

WILLIAM JONES, Former U.S. Ambassador To Haiti: I think that there were a number of factors, not just the recent violence, although that certainly was the catalyst that sparked the --

MR. LEHRER: Violence against the Catholic Church, yes.

MR. JONES: But the country is almost cash broke now since foreign aid has been virtually eliminated. Namphy was not an efficient ruler. He probably had problems with his health, perhaps with alcoholism, so I think things were generally falling apart, so there were a number of things that precipitated the coup and precipitated the advent of Prosper Avril.

MR. LEHRER: Tell us about Avril.

MR. JONES: Avril is a man who is fairly well educated. He went to the University of Haiti. All of his life he has been in the military. He certainly is a man of great great strength. He's a very strong man. He was very close to Jean-Claude Delvalle. He was one of the inner circle of the Delvalle regime. Following the ouster of Delvalle, Prosper Avril has a genius for survival, he was part of the transition government for a while and he was also close to Gen. Namphy. And it's my understanding that Avril did not, himself, take power, that power was transferred to him by a group of other military generally military at the non-commission level who decided that Namphy had to go and went to Avril and asked him to take over and then carry Namphy out.

MR. LEHRER: What you know about Avril, does that add up to you, that he would not be the kind of man who would seize power on his own?

MR. JONES: I wouldn't say that. I wouldn't say that. I would simply say that he evidently did not seize power at this time on his own.

MR. LEHRER: Let's go back a few years. If he was very close to Delvalle, I mean, was he involved in any of the abuses and those kinds of things that were, of course, the trademarks of the Delvalle regime?

MR. JONES: Well, I think that Prosper Avril was one of the major body guards and protectors of Delvalle. He certainly benefited financially from the Delvalle regime. He was certainly a close adviser to Delvalle but essentially he is a military man, a professional military man.

MR. LEHRER: Can he run the country?

MR. JONES: That remains to be seen, if he will be a stronger person than Namphy. Whether he can command the respect of the citizens of Haiti to the degree that is necessary to the Runda country remains to be seen.

MR. LEHRER: What are the tools at his command? I mean, what do we look for over the next say few days and weeks to see if this man can pull it off?

MR. JONES: Well, first of all, he must maintain the support of the army. It's a fairly small army. It's only an army of 7,000, 7,500 men. Secondly, he must maintain order in the country, that is, to prevent mass demonstrations or mass uprisings by the people. So far this has not happened, but it always is a possibility. Thirdly, in order to have any credibility at all he has to demonstrate that he will move the country towards democracy in some way. Exactly how would remain to be seen, and fourthly, he must bring civilians into the government. He cannot run the government as a military Hunta. I don't think that the Haitian military are capable of running the government.

MR. LEHRER: Is he likely to want to move the country to democracy? Is there anything in his background or record that you're aware of that would point that way?

MR. JONES: I think that the most likely thing is that in order to survive I think he has to and he has a genius for survival.

MR. LEHRER: I got it.

MR. JONES: He has made pronouncements that he was but that is not unusual in Haitian politics. Many politicians have made pronouncements and then have assumed absolute power at the first opportunity, so we just have to wait and see.

MR. LEHRER: Sure. You mentioned that he must maintain support of the army in order to make this. Does he have any public support, any public persona, is he well known by the ordinary folks of Haiti?

MR. JONES: Oh, yes, he's very well known. He is very well known. I frankly don't know what degree his public support would be since things like that are very quiet in Haiti and I would doubt that he would have what we would call support in the populist sense. He may have acquiescence may be a better word.

MR. LEHRER: In your judgment, tough judgment, but I'm going to ask you anyhow, is the country better off for this coup taking some chances on Avril than they were under Namphy?

MR. JONES: Slightly, because simply Avril is more efficient and may be more realistic, that is, he may actually try to improve the condition of the people. That would be a very marginal difference I think.

MR. LEHRER: You don't -- reading between the lines, you don't sound terribly optimistic about this situation. Am I reading you right?

MR. JONES: I don't think there are grounds for optimism at this time. I think we have to wait and we have to see what direction Haiti moves. Haiti does have potential for development. It is a country without a tradition of democracy. So to establish what we know as democracy will be very difficult in Haiti. There is very little evidence of willingness to compromise and a whole change of the political process will be necessaryfor Haiti to move into the modern world. So it's very difficult to be optimistic, however, it's not difficult to be hopeful.

MR. LEHRER: And until that happens, Haiti's incredibly awful economic problems are not going to get solved, is that right?

MR. JONES: Well, again, as long as foreign aid is suspended, and I don't think that it's possible that American aid will be resumed in the near future, I just don't think this in the cards until we see which direction the country goes. Haiti does have a strong potential for economic development along the private sector. It is a country that could receive private investment. It has a very large work force and a very talented work force, but until there's stability and until there's evidence that the government can maintain order and move the country towards prosperity or limited prosperity in any case and certainly towards democracy, I doubt that there will be much investment.

MR. LEHRER: Finally, related to that, Col. Paul, who is a key general down there, it was announced yesterday or the day before that he was going to take charge of the army.

MR. JONES: Yes.

MR. LEHRER: This man is under indictment by the United States?

MR. JONES: Yes.

MR. LEHRER: For drug dealing. How does that affect things?

MR. JONES: Well, I think as long as he is in a position of power, it will be very difficult for the United States to resume aid to Haiti, and if he is made Commander in Chief of the Army, it would be very very difficult, indeed. Col. Paul controls a desoline battalion, which is the best trained battalion in the Haitian Army, so, therefore, he's a very formidable person to deal with. It's not someone that you can just say you're dismissed and expect him to leave so it will be very very difficult for the present regime to control Col. Paul and I suspect they'll probably try to work with him rather than to oust him, at least initially.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Ambassador, thanks again for being with us.

MR. JONES: Thank you very much.

MR. MacNeil: Still to come on the Newshour, looking back at Hurricane Gilbert and Dan Quayle on the stump. FOCUS - ASSESSING DAMAGE

MR. MacNeil: Next we assess the damage done by Hurricane Gilbert which caused nearly 200 deaths and we examine whether the losses could be lowered in future storms. What was left of the storm moved into Eastern Oklahoma last night and today. It dropped eight inches of rain, causing some floods in low lying areas Northwest of Oklahoma City. Some people were evacuated as rivers rose as much as four feet above the flood level. The storm spun off dozens of tornadoes as it passed over Texas this weekend. Damage from the twisters claimed two lives in San Antonio. Today crews there were repairing power and telephone lines snapped by the storms and families whose homes were damaged began taking stock and making repairs. Total damage in San Antonio alone was estimated at more than $35 million. In Monterrey, Mexico, workers were still searching for bodies swept away when four buses overturned in the flooding. More than 90 drowning victims were recovered today and over the weekend. Officials say up to 200 were aboard the buses, but with bodies lost in the floods, the exact total may never be known. In Jamaica, the process of damage assessment is just beginning a week after the hurricane moved through. The storm left a vast swath of property damage in addition to killing 29 people. Crop damage, especially to the coconut and banana plantations was extensive. Many homes were totally uprooted. It's estimated that 1/4 of the population is currently homeless. For more on the international relief efforts to aid the victims of Hurricane Gilbert, we turn to Richard Schubert, President of the American Red Cross.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Schubert, what is your assessment of the damage in Jamaica?

RICHARD SCHUBERT, American Red Cross: The Red Cross is involved right now in sheltering about 500,000 people. That's roughly 1/4 of the population. We've had a couple of people in there a week ago immediately after the damage. They still have not completed the damage assessment, as you indicated in your overview. But it's clear that it is massive. We've sent a lot of material and some cash over and we'll continue to support that effort.

MR. MacNeil: Now other agencies have been sending relief to Jamaica, including some organized by the Jamaicans, themselves. What is your assessment of what is still needed there and is it something the public should and can be involved in?

MR. SCHUBERT: In a case like this the American Red Cross's role is to support the Jamaican Red Cross and, in fact, the whole Red Cross movement in its effort to step in and meet the people's needs as the Jamaican Red Cross assesses same. So hence our first shipment involved blankets, kerosene lamps, a couple of vehicles, water purification tablets and some bulk food. We will continue to do that as long as the crisis exists and as long as people literally around the world support the effort. We've got a team in there right now assisting the Jamaican Red Cross. The Jamaican Red Cross for a developing society is a fine organization so our role is to try to help them in the assessment and then meeting the needs.

MR. MacNeil: Well, is that something that individual Americans should feel that they can be generous about? Can they give practical aid, individual Americans, to the situation in Jamaica?

MR. SCHUBERT: What we need as a practical matter is cash. The answer is not to collect canned goods or clothing. The difficulty logistically of sorting that out and getting it over there is far more than the benefit derived. What we do need is cash. Cash also supports the local economy. As your clips indicate, the devastation to small businesses in the economy is also very significant, so we are turning to the American public and saying, hey, we were very fortunate in Gilbert that we didn't get the paced thing in the Gulf Coast that we could have had. Now this is an opportunity to reach out to people who were devastated.

MR. MacNeil: Now what about Mexico, another place where it suffered very badly, what is the situation there as far as the Red Cross is concerned?

MR. SCHUBERT: The best handle that we have for the Mexican Red Cross is that the damage in Yucatan Peninsula and South of the Border between Texas and Mexico is very extensive, difficult to get into that area and do the real assessment that needs to be done. We've got an administrative team working hand in hand with the Mexican Red Cross right now. We've sent material over. It's very clear that we're going to have to provide a great deal more before this is over.

MR. MacNeil: How has international cooperation worked out in dealing with this?

MR. SCHUBERT: I think it has worked very well. We had a little more notice than we often do in a natural disaster and as a consequence, the League of Red Cross Societies had some personnel ready to move in. The American Red Cross being closest of the large developed societies had some people that moved in immediately, and I think we did pretty well. Now the need is for some funds to support the effort not only in the emergency sheltering and feeding operation but to help to restore families back as units into their homes.

MR. MacNeil: Do you think in the case of Jamaica, there was adequate warning and warning that was disseminated through the country?

MR. SCHUBERT: The latter is the problem. I think there was warning and, in fact, the television and radio stations carried same, but you have to recognize that much of the population is very poor indeed. Beyond that, once warning was delivered, there were relatively few possibilities for people to protect themselves. Many did go to shelters before the storm hit run by the Jamaican Red Cross, but unfortunately, there wasn't a whole lot they could do to protect their property.

MR. MacNeil: What about the situation in Mexico in terms of warning?

MR. SCHUBERT: In Mexico, recognizing that this was such an incredibly powerful storm that it created its own system and did not yield to the overall jet stream pressures and no one really knew where it was going to make land fall, I think people had more notice than they normally have.

MR. MacNeil: Would you like to see something done differently if a similar storm brews up in the future? I mean, the hurricane season isn't over yet.

MR. SCHUBERT: We're trying to learn from this one, Bob. This was almost an ideal drill for the American Red Cross. We assembled 95 vehicles, about 250 disaster specialists. We positioned them with material in about 10 places along the Gulf Coast and that permitted us then once land fall had been achieved to get to the most critical areas and to move it across the border into Mexico, but there's no question that as we assess in the next couple of weeks, we can learn to do it even a little more effectively.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Schubert, thank you for joining us.

MR. SCHUBERT: Thank you.

MR. MacNeil: Next, we look at the way local forces rallied in the United States to predict the dangers of Hurricane Gilbert and their efforts to minimize the loss of life. Correspondent Tom Bearden weathered the storm in Brownsville, Texas, and files this report.

TOM BEARDEN: The approach of Hurricane Gilbert sent hundreds of thousands of Gulf Coast residents fleeing inland last Thursday morning, leaving behind nearly everything they owned. They had done what they could to protect their property, boarding up businesses and homes, but the storm was so powerful many wondered if it would be a futile effort. They did all this largely because of people like Richard Hagan, Chief of the National Weather Service Office in Brownsville. Hagan and his staff occupy what is usually a very quiet office at the Brownsville Airport, an almost deserted facility that no longer has commercial airline service. As Gilbert approached the coast, the weather service office was quiet no more. Hagan and his staff were frequently outnumbered by reporters, granting literally hundreds of interviews.

REPORTER: No idea which way they'll initially go.

DON OCKER, Forecaster: A lot of uncertainties that we can't measure so you can't make any money forecasting where a hurricane is going to make land fall. Somebody says that a hurricane is going to go somewhere, and I'll bet him double the money that it won't.

MR. BEARDEN: Unlike other Brownsville emergency agencies which shut out the media, the forecasters welcomed them because they helped them get their message to the public. Loraine Garcia got the message. She heard the reports of torrential rainfall and filled sand bags, hoping to keep flood waters out of her home and she debated what she should do as the storm moved closer.

LORAINE GARCIA: I think everybody is ready. You know, my idea is I would like to stay home and sleep in my own bed tonight and leave tomorrow morning, but I think I'm going to have to buckle, you know, from pressure from the rest and go home.

MR. BEARDEN: This shelter began turning people away at about 9 PM on Thursday night, telling them to go to another high school down the road. Five hundred people had spread their bedding by 10 PM, coping with damp floors and temperatures in the 90s as best they could. Forecasters were on the job at the weather service far into the night, taking instrument readings, carefully logging the numbers.

RICHARD HAGAN, Chief Forecaster: We started Tuesday with it and I have not spent any whole nights here yet. Fortunately, I've been able to go home and get a little sleep each night. Some of my men have had to stay on duty right on through the entire night.

MR. BEARDEN: What's it like tracking a storm knowing that it might knock your house down while you're sitting here looking at it on radar?

RICHARD HAGAN: What was even worse in this particular event is that my wife just had surgery and came home from the hospital Sunday and she was not able to leave. I wanted her to actually fly out and she did not feel she was able to either drive or fly out, so I had to get the plywood on my house on Tuesday night, because I knew I wouldn't have time afterwards and just hope for the best as far as she was concerned.

MR. BEARDEN: They tracked the methods with both high tech and low. Satellite cameras spewed forth dramatic pictures of a huge storm almost as big as the Gulf of Mexico itself. Radar probed the sky around Brownsville, painting electronic pictures of the powerful spiral bands of thunderstorms moving toward the city. Much more prosaic, after sunrise, Sam Martinez simply looked out the door to estimate what visibility remained in the thunderstorms and to evaluate the rainfall.

SAM MARTINEZ, Forecaster: Gusts, I've got gusts to 45 knots, which is right around 55 miles an hour gusts, so it's getting worse now just from the last hour.

MR. BEARDEN: While most people were taking cover, the crew of this helicopter were risking their lives, flying into the teeth of the storm. The wind was blowing so hard it was even difficult to land. The chopper needed fuel after having completed a dramatic rescue. The crew had just plucked five men from a fishing boat foundering in mountainous seas.

MARK WALLACE, Coast Guard: They were out working with a shrimper that got caught out in the storm and swells were probably 40 to 50 feet. And we had to pick them out of the vessel and drop them on the beach.

SCOTT TAYLOR, Hoist Operator: As you can see, when we finished the hoist on the last hoist, we had to pick up two people at one time because the seas were so bad it was really dangerous and the basket caught on the side of the vessel and it pretty much tore the basket apart.

MR. BEARDEN: So you had a pretty hairy rescue this morning?

SCOTT TAYLOR: It was the worst I've ever done.

MR. BEARDEN: Ever any concern that you might not come through it?

SCOTT TAYLOR: No, no. I trust the pilots and we're trained for this kind of thing and we're ready all the time.

MR. BEARDEN: What kind of reaction did you get from the guys you pulled off the shrimper?

SCOTT TAYLOR: They were pretty glad to get off. It was really really bad out there.

MR. BEARDEN: Refueling completed, the Coast Guard chopper headed out once more to search for the crew of another shrimper they had spotted earlier that had run aground.

RICHARD HAGAN: [On Phone] We just had a gust to 62 miles an hour here during the past five minutes. So we are getting the good strong winds and all the reports that I get from the island indicate that the tides are running quite high with very rough surfs.

MR. BEARDEN: Gilbert was close enough now for local radar to clearly define the eye, the whirlpool center of the storm where the winds blew at 120 miles an hour. [Two Forecasters Discussing Storm]

MR. BEARDEN: What do you think about when you see something that big and that dangerous on radar?

RICHARD HAGAN: There's a certain amount of adrenaline that starts to pump into a weatherman when he sees an event that big taking place and he's going to be a part of it.

MR. BEARDEN: It's exciting then?

RICHARD HAGAN: Yes, it is. Now I don't want to imply that we sit around hoping that an area is going to get hit by a hurricane because we realize there is a lot of destructive potential there, but if it's going to happen and we're in it, it certainly gets our blood to pumping.

MR. BEARDEN: Americans weren't the only ones who wanted information about Gilbert. [Forecaster on Phone and Talking to Others]

MR. BEARDEN: By 2 o'clock on Friday, it was clear that Gilbert was going ashore well South of Brownsville, but Brownsville wasn't out of danger yet. Twenty miles East on the coast, itself, the waves were pounding the shore. Hagan was worried people might leave their shelters prematurely. He expressed that concern to the mayor who had arrived for an update. [Hagan Talking to Mayor]

MR. BEARDEN: While local officials were still worried, by dusk it was clear that Brownsville had dodged a direct blow from Hurricane Gilbert. Trees and utility poles were down, power interrupted, several buildings had received relatively minor damage. Gilbert had received a massive build-up, the storm of the century, but had not devastated Brownsville. Only 1/3 of the predicted 15 inches of rainfall had occurred. People had gone all out to prepare. Was there a danger they would be apathetic when the next storm came along? Would they think the weather service was crying wolf again? Hagan doesn't think so.

RICHARD HAGAN: One of the big factors now is that you can get these satellite pictures on television, when the storm gets close, you can get the radar pictures on television. Nobody can deny any more that there's a threat out there and with the news coverage that this storm got, you can see the devastation other places, you get the death counts, you could see that huge monster on TV. That's really helping the public reaction as much as anything else I believe.

MR. MacNeil: And a man who made a major impact on the national public reaction to Hurricane Gilbert last week was Robert Sheets, the Director of the National Hurricane Center, joins us again tonight from Coral Gables, Florida, to assess the aftermath of Gilbert. Dr. Sheets, now that the drama is passed, how do you assess the way it was forecast?

ROBERT SHEETS, National Hurricane Center: Well, I think very well. The only area that we had some uncertainty in and that was the Northwest turn that never took place for about three days after we thought it was going to take place, but our warnings I think were very appropriate. I've been listening to your program here and I think that the Brownsville, Texas, area is exactly the way the system is supposed to work. We from the national center issue the forecast, we issue the warnings and Richard Hagan is one of our veterans at the local National Weather Service Offices and they interact with those local officials and they prepared properly.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Schubert, the head of the Red Cross, we just had on said that the storm was so powerful it created its own system and that's why it didn't turn North. What's your comment on that?

DR. SHEETS: Well, that's partly true, indeed, that the system, itself, was a large season. In fact, the numerical models that we use that predict the entire flow patterns along the Northern Hemisphere, they didn't catch that either that was going towards this West/Northwest rather than taking the turn and we think that, indeed, it was some of this influence of the large system that was really building the ridge of the pressure to the North of it.

MR. MacNeil: When you talk about those models, you mentioned them to us when you were on our show last week, is that just putting into the computer all the previous storms and where they have gone and kind of working out the probabilities from that, is that it?

DR. SHEETS: No, that's much more complicated than that. There are models like that we use to try to predict the exact track of the storm. The ones I'm talking about are the large hemispheric models that we use on a day to day basis to predict where the highs and lows are going to be and so then the hurricane is basically controlled by where those highs and lows are going to be in the jet stream and so on, but in this case the hurricane sort of modified those large scale features rather than them controlling where the hurricane went.

MR. MacNeil: I remember your predecessor, Neil Frank, saying a few years ago that the art of predicting the future path of the hurricane was still an art and that you were better at being observers of them than predictors of them. Now has that changed and are you actually getting more skilled at predicting now?

DR. SHEETS: There's no question we do an excellent job of observing these hurricanes and we had minute to minute kind of data here with Hurricane Gilbert and that was very critical in our entire forecastive warning process. Now the actual prediction of the hurricane, if you go back and look at our statistics for the life of this hurricane, they're going to turn out and be exceptional, however, the prediction of the turn is going to be off and that's where our errors are going to be. So we are improving slowly. We have actually reduced our forecast error by about 1 percent per year. I have hopes, in fact, I believe that we are going to reduce that by another 5 or 10 percent over the next five years because of some new things that we have coming along.

MR. MacNeil: Do you think the fact that a turn north was not predicted contributed to the fact that the people up in Monterrey, Mexico, did not expect the storm to go, they hadn't taken any preparations, they didn't expect it to go there?

DR. SHEETS: I wouldn't think so because indeed our warnings were from Tampeco northward to Ft. O'Connor and we continually stressed the likelihood of movement into Northern Mexico, so I wouldn't think that was a factor. Perhaps some of the communications was the problem.

MR. MacNeil: I see. What kind of cooperation was there with the other affected areas in the region starting with Jamaica? How did you use your information and how did it work?

DR. SHEETS: We have an excellent system throughout. We call this Region 4. It's under the United Nations, world meteorologic organization. This is what's Region 4, and all the countries in this region, 25 countries, and that includes Jamaica and Mexico, Cuba, and Nicaragua, all the Central American countries are members of this and I serve on the hurricane committee with those people. John Blake is the person there in charge in Jamaica, and we have a special phone line that's here at the National Hurricane Center which is restricted only for the use of those heads of meteorological services and so we were in constant contact with Jamaica well before the event. The warnings, as the Red Cross member indicated there, were up exceptionally early because we knew this was a very big system, and as I say, early we handled it very well, so the warnings were up. They were very good. In fact, we were still talking to John Blake there in Kingston when the eye was over him and them of course communications went out so they worked very well there, and then on over, of course, we had our contacts with Mexico in terms of raising the warnings for Yucatan and then on over around Tampeco, so we were in constant contact with them.

MR. MacNeil: There were stories that Soviet observer planes were flying in the eye of the hurricane out of Cuba the same time American planes were in there. Was there cooperation with them?

DR. SHEETS: Initially I think on their part they didn't realize the impact it would have on our operations. This is some research aircraft that I personally know the people in charge there. I've met them before, and they had blocked out a certain altitude to fly research missions into this storm out in the Bay of Campichi basically and apparently didn't recognize that when they blocked that out, our airplanes couldn't get in. So there was some concern there for a while but we worked all of that. It worked out very well. They flew at 10,000 feet, our Air Force plane then came in at 10,000 feet, and we never skipped a beat, everything worked out very well.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Sheets, thank you very much again for joining us.

DR. SHEETS: Thank you. SERIES - '88 - ON THE STUMP

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight another stump speech. Throughout this campaign we are running healthy excerpts from speeches the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates are making. Tonight it's Republican Vice Presidential Nominee Dan Quayle's turn. The speech was delivered last week in Denver to the Kiwanis and Rotary Clubs.

SEN. DAN QUAYLE, GOP Vice-Presidential Nominee: [Denver, Sept. 14] There is no question that national defense is a complicated issue. There are not simple solutions to the threats of our national security but there are basic principles that can certainly guide us. The most fundamental of these principles is our desire to reduce the danger of nuclear war. That's the No. 1 defense priority of the American people and we must never become complacent about the dangers posed from nuclear weapons. I do not accept the idea that keeping our citizens exposed and vulnerable is the most moral basis for what is called stability. Nor do I understand those people who want to keep nuclear weapons as frightening as possible in hopes that fear will make them unusable. The real fantasy about nuclear weapons is to think that they will disappear because they are too terrible to use. Our objective is to create a situation and a political environment with real incentives for both sides to continue to reduce nuclear weapons. We have just concluded an INF Treaty. That for the first time in history eliminates entire classes of nuclear weapons. We achieved an elimination of these nuclear weapons not by being militarily weak or by changing our positions to satisfy Soviet demands. We obtained an INF agreement because for seven long years we followed a policy of peace through strength. We did not deviate from our position that we would deploy medium range nuclear missiles in Europe if the Soviets did not eliminate their SS-20s. The Soviets countered with a massive propaganda campaign and walked out of the arms control talks. We along with our allies stood our ground and we deployed the Pershing IIs and the ground launch Cruise Missiles to counter the Soviet threat. Only then did the Soviets get serious about negotiations. They came back to the bargaining table and ultimately accepted our original proposal, the zero option. The result, an historic dismantling of medium range nuclear weapons held by both sides. We could never have achieved the INF Treaty if the nuclear freeze advocated by the Governor of Massachusetts had been adopted. In fact, the only thing he would have frozen in place was a dangerous destabilizing Soviet medium range nuclear monopoly in Europe. We rejected that bumper sticker slogan for real security. We now have reaped the benefits as we see the Soviets dismantle far more nuclear weapons than we had in place. Gov. Dukakis is not committed to modernizing our land based missile force. He opposed the deployment of the B-1 bomber. He's opposed to the two new aircraft carriers needed to maintain our current fleet carrier strength. He criticized our rescue mission to Grenada. He criticized our retaliatory strike against Gadaffi who had been exporting terrorism. He tried to block Massachusetts National Guard units from attending important training exercises in Honduras. He's also opposed to the important communications system called GWEN, or the Ground Warning Emergency Network, a communications system that would be absolutely vital in case of conflict. 56 sites around the country are needed to implement the GWEN project but the Governor of Massachusetts has blocked the vital Massachusetts side, one of only two Governors in the country to take such a position. My friends, this system will help deter an attack on the U.S. and that should be the primary of anyone running for President. As we march toward the 1990s there is no greater necessity for a President than to understand deterrence and how best to preserve peace. The American people believe in a strong national defense. They believe in the concept of freedom and they know the importance of this election to both. That is why I am confident that George Bush will be the next President of the United States of America. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Once again, the main points in the news today, about 150 people were reported killed in Rangoon, Burma, when soldiers fired on crowds demonstrating against the military leaders who seized power over the weekend. Haiti, scene of another military takeover, was reported quiet. Hurricane Gilbert was blamed for heavy flooding in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, and late today the Senate approved a landmark free trade agreement with Canada that could phase out all tariffs and curbs on goods over the next 10 years. Good night, Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Good night, Robin. We'll see you tomorrow night. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.