The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight the latest from Zaire, including U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Sadako Ogata; plus a Newsmaker interview with Mexico's president, Ernesto Zedillo; a city wins its battle against the Red River; chess master Gary Kasparov versus Deep Blue; and a Richard Rodriguez essay about the Mexico-U.S. drug connection. It all follows our summary of the news this Monday.NEWS SUMMARY

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Zaire's rebel leader, Laurent Kabila, gave President Mobutu an ultimatum today. He said Mobutu must hand over the government within eight days or "perish with his power." Peace talks last weekend between the two leaders failed to produce an agreement. Kabila said his troops were within 40 miles of the airport of the capital of Kinshasa. U.S. envoy Bill Richardson today urged Kabila to avoid bloodshed and chaos when his troops reached the city. United Nations relief workers continued trying to get thousands of Rwandan Hutu refugees out of Zaire and back to their homeland. The rebels trucked hundreds of refugees out of the jungle and dumped them at a spot where 91 refugees died, crushed and smothered on a trail yesterday. We'll have more on the Zaire story right after the News Summary. In Washington yesterday President Clinton left the White House for his first state visit to Mexico, where drug smuggling and immigration are expected to top the agenda. Mr. Clinton said he will also cover various NAFTA trade issues when he meets with Mexico's president, Ernesto Zedillo, on the first leg of his Mexico-Caribbean trip. As he left this afternoon the President spoke about the new Americas.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: Little more than a decade ago our neighbors were plagued by civil wars and guerrilla insurgencies, troops, and dictators, closed economies, and hopeless poverty. Now we face a far different moment, a moment of truly remarkable possibility. Every nation in our hemisphere but one has embraced both free elections and open markets. The region's growing economies have become our largest trading partners. Already we export twice as much to the Americas as to Europe and nearly half again as much as to Asia.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: We'll have a Newsmaker interview with President Zedillo later in the program. A civil jury in Florida said today R. J. Reynolds Tobacco Company was not negligent in the lung cancer death of a life-long smoker. Lawyers for the company argued the victim chose to smoke and ignored health warnings. Jurors ruled the cigarettes were not defective or unreasonably dangerous. The suit was brought by the family of Jean Connor, who videotaped her testimony before she died in 1995. In West Texas today police shot and killed one of two fugitives from the compound of the Republic of Texas separatist group. Authorities are still searching for the second man. Other members, including the group's leader, Richard McLaren, surrendered Saturday after a tense standoff with police that began April 27th. In a Dallas federal court today a grand jury indictment was unsealed, charging McLaren and his wife with fraud and conspiracy. It claimed the McLarens issued $1.8 billion in bogus financial instruments to pay bills.

PAUL COGGINS, U.S. Attorney: The McLarens knew they were being investigated by our office. We became ready to indict the case during the standoff, and, in fact, did indict the case on April 29, 1997. We decided to seal the indictment to give the Texas Department of Public Safety every opportunity to complete the negotiations and wrap up the standoff without bloodshed.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: If convicted, the McLarens face stiff prison sentences and millions of dollars in fines. The Megan's Law trial began today in Trenton, New Jersey. A 36-year-old repeat sex offender is charged with killing seven-year-old Megan Kanka. The case gained national attention when it was learned the defendant had two previous sex convictions which had not been made known to his neighbors. The Kanka family lived across the street. The case led states and the Congress to pass so-called "Megan's Law," requiring residents to be advised if sex offenders move into their communities. In economic news the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high above 7200. The Dow was up 142 points, or 2 percent, to 7213.48. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the latest from Zaire, an interview with Mexican President Zedillo, beating back the Red River, Kasparov versus Big Blue, and a Richard Rodriguez essay. FOCUS - REFUGEE CRISIS

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: We start tonight with the refugee crisis in the Central African nation of Zaire. Margaret Warner has the story.

MARGARET WARNER: The civil war in Zaire has exacerbated the plight of nearly one hundred--civil war and genocide in their own country. Yesterday Zaire's refugee crisis took another tragic turn when at least 91 refugees were smothered and trampled to death in railway boxcars. The trains were supposed to be taking them from the Biaro refugee camp in North Central Zaire to the city of Kisangani, where they were to board U.N.-sponsored flights back home to Rwanda. We have a report from Lindsay Taylor of Independent Television News.

LINDSAY TAYLOR, ITN: Today trucks, not trains, brought the Rwandan refugees to the transit camp near Kinsangani. The hundreds who had been packed aboard the vehicles by rebels were deposited in the midst of the site. Here, they joined the hundreds of others waiting to be repatriated to Rwanda. Most are weak and hungry. Some are sick. Just a few yards away are the people that did not make it this far, the 91 killed in yesterday's horrifying train crash, the bodies of whom were removed from the track side today. They boarded a train believing they were on their way to a new life back home. Instead, their journey ended like this. As a result of yesterday's tragedy, which happened after nearly 3,000 refugees crammed aboard the carriages for the two-hour trip. The U.N. has suspended the use of such trains. Today, as some of the survivors were treated in Kisangani Hospital, U.N. officials were sharply critical of the rebels for dispatching the train without notice, and aid workers have appealed for greater cooperation on the ground. Scenes like these reinforce the need for a stable political backdrop for the safe management of the repatriation program. But that is proving as elusive as ever. The ailing President Mobutu, here returning from his meeting with the rebel leader, Laurent Kabila, has refused to step down right away. He believes there should be an immediate cease-fire and that a transitory authority be set up to organize elections. He would then hand over power to the newly-elected president. But at the peace talks, under the mediation to the South African President, Nelson Mandela, Kabila said Mobutu should step aside and allow his group to form the transitional authority. Each agreed to think about the other's proposals for a week, but the rebels have since made clear they're ready to seize power whether Mobutu agrees or not. In Kinshasa, Rwandan refugees camped outside United Nations offices are fearful of the rebel leader and want either the U.N.'s protection or its help to escape.

SPOKESMAN: Either they can help us here to stay, or take us out from here. Because of this war we don't know.

SPOKESMAN: They afraid of Kabila because his troops always kills Rwandans.

LINDSAY TAYLOR: But there's a queue to be among the hundreds boarding the flights from Kisangani to Rwanda. Here, it's an orderly affair, but as yesterday's train journey showed, with so many to be transported home in so little time, the repatriation program can easily turn to tragedy.

MARGARET WARNER: For more on this story we turn to Sadako Ogata, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. That post makes this former Japanese professor and diplomat responsible for the care, repatriation, and resettlement of more than 20 million refugees and displaced people around the world. And welcome, Madame Ambassador. Where does the railway tragedy of this weekend leave your effort to move these still tens of thousands of Rwandan refugees out of there?

SADAKO OGATA, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees: The train incident shows the difficulty that we're facing on various levels. There is, of course, the logistical problems. But basically we had a very good plan to take these people orderly from their camps to Kisangani and airlift them on April 18th. Then there was a lot of problems that we faced in the local areas from the local Zairians, but there was an attack by the military on the refugee camps on the 21st. And that is when all the refugees started in fear, ran into the rain forest. And it was with this background that the refugees--when they knew that they can--that we were to start the airlift again swarmed out and tried to get on the train. And the train was obviously not the kind of passenger trains--these were just carts that people crammed--and we were not on the train because the train left without being properly coordinated by us, and the refugees being so fearful, they just wanted to grab the opportunity to be taken home. And so the psychology of the refugees, the instability of the military, even attacking refugees, shows that we are trying to do a repatriation operation in an environment that is neither safe nor thoroughly coordinated, and so it is very, very difficult.

MARGARET WARNER: And you are operating, I gather, under a deadline imposed by the rebel leader Laurent Kabila?

SADAKO OGATA: Yes. Mr. Kabila, however, after we had a meeting, my colleagues in Kisangani on Saturday, the 27th, did give a deadline, but later said that this was more of a target, so I think there is room for orderly return if only the local authorities and the military cooperate with us.

MARGARET WARNER: Well, now, explain to us why is--why are the Zairian rebels killing the refugees?

SADAKO OGATA: Well, I don't--I cannot say that they are intentionally killing, but there was an attack by the--in an area that was controlled by the Zairian rebels, and so this is also a credibility issue, how much are they in control of the area, and how much Mr. Kabila, himself, who has promised us an orderly repatriation, is in control, and I think this is very serious because presumably he will be in control of the country if all these negotiations move on. And I think the way this refugee issue is handled by the rebel, by the rebel alliance leadership, by the military of the rebel alliance, by the local authorities, and how well Rwanda receives them in a cooperative way will all be a very serious test for the future.

MARGARET WARNER: Explain to us what seems to be a dichotomy, which is Kabila made it clear he'd like these x-tens of thousands refugees gone, yet, forces loyal to him are either making it hard for you to operate, or by many accounts also engaging in attacks. Why? I mean, does he not control them? Do they have another agenda?

SADAKO OGATA: I think it could be either, or also that these are not the most welcome people, in fact, in Rwanda, although the Rwandan leaders, whom I met in February, said that they would receive all of them.

MARGARET WARNER: But just to explain, these are Hutus, who are- -

SADAKO OGATA: These were Hutus.

MARGARET WARNER: --blamed for massive genocide three years ago.

SADAKO OGATA: Massive genocide. And they're the ones that kept on moving west, fearful of return. So there's a lot of suspicion.

MARGARET WARNER: And so what will it take, do you think, to solve this crisis?

SADAKO OGATA: I think strong international attention. There are not only Kisangani and Ulunda area where this up to a hundred thousand people were there, but there are other areas in--within Eastern Zaire, where there's allegations of human rights violations. I think the--in order for the rebel alliance to be--to show that they are in control, they will have to give us some assurance that they are, in fact, respecting the human rights. Their military is in control. All these things will have to come out much more clearly.

MARGARET WARNER: Now, in the speech you gave at the Holocaust Museum here in Washington last week you said that the whole world really bears responsibility for situations such as this one. Explain that a little more.

SADAKO OGATA: Well, I didn't really mean the whole world in the sense, but this--the whole refugee crisis in the Great Lakes region was really left mostly to the humanitarian agencies to tackle with as a humanitarian crisis. But the real cause was underlying, was political, military, of the kind that had to be dealt with by the political leaders in the region, and then the countries which have influence over these countries like the United States or the various European countries. And I feel that the political initiatives came late.

MARGARET WARNER: So, for instance, you had asked for international military help, had you not, to separate in these camps the militants from the sort of legitimate refugees.

SADAKO OGATA: Yes. The 1994--over the summer--because we did have a lot of military elements in the refugee camps, and refugee camps should have maintained a civilian character, but there was--I mean our own colleagues cannot exactly de-mobilize soldiers, so what we ask, what I asked was to separate them, but this was not done. No country would take that risk and gradually more and more the camps turned into a power base of the Hutu refugees or the Hutu Exfar Interhamways that wanted to have return to their country through force, or through political negotiations. And there was no way that we could control that.

MARGARET WARNER: And of course, the Zairian rebel army is mostly, I gather, made up of Tutsis, the rival tribe?

SADAKO OGATA: They're Tutsi, the Bungamalenges people--took--were very well trained, and they were a main part of the rebel alliance forces.

MARGARET WARNER: But what do you--what should publicly--what should leaders in the West do when their own publics here in the United States and in Europe say we don't want our young men and women dying to save refugees like this, and we don't really want to welcome tens of thousands into this country?

SADAKO OGATA: You don't--I wouldn't say that you have to send soldiers to really be killed so much. There are moments--I don't think even separating the military elements from the refugees in 1994 was that dangerous an undertaking. These were people who were defeated. But a presence, international presence, from a major western or African country, should have made a big difference in making people comply.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, thank you, Madame Ambassador, very much.

SADAKO OGATA: Thank you very much.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight Charles Krause with Mexico's President Zedillo, Winnipeg versus the Red River, and Kasparov versus Deep Blue, plus a Richard Rodriguez essay. NEWSMAKER

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Next tonight, President Clinton's state visit to Mexico, the first by an American president in nearly 20 years. It comes at a time of tightened tension between the U.S. and Mexico over drugs and immigration. Last week correspondent Charles Krause was in Mexico City for an interview with President Ernesto Zedillo.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Ernesto Zedillo is a 46-year-old economist trained at Yale, who had little political experience before an assassination thrust him into Mexico's presidency three years ago. Since then he and President Clinton have met three times, most recently at the White House three years ago, and reportedly, the two men have forged a good working relationship.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: Mr. President, the bonds between our nations have never been stronger or more important. Over the last decade and with renewed vitality since you took office, Mexico has embarked upon a course of political and economic transformation.

CHARLES KRAUSE: In a country where political corruption is a serious problem the Clinton administration views Zedillo as both politically and intellectually honest. On the other side, Zedillo and his administration view Clinton as a friend, who has been willing to take risks on Mexico's behalf, most notably, Mr. Clinton's risky decision to create an emergency, $50 billion bailout package for Mexico in February 1995. Zedillo was extremely grateful because at the height of Mexico's peso crisis the package forestalled the country's economic collapse.

PRESIDENT ZEDILLO: [speaking through interpreter] President Clinton, the international leadership, vision, and courage you have displayed prevented the crisis from becoming a systemic problem of world scope.

CHARLES KRAUSE: But the rescue package came with tough conditions. Mexico was thrown into deep recession. And by the end of 1995, the peso had lost fully half its value, and hundreds of thousands of Mexican workers had lost their jobs. Faced with growing opposition Zedillo toured the country urging patience as Mexico's per capita income and standard of living continued to fall. But by last year as Zedillo predicted, the economy began to recover. And in January of this year, President Clinton was able to announce the Mexico had repaid with interest all the money it had borrowed from the United States.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: Two years ago helping our friend and neighbor in a time of need was quite controversial. Some said that we should not get involved; that the money would never be repaid; that Mexico should fend for itself. They were wrong.

CHARLES KRAUSE: But the era of good feeling was to last no more than a couple of months. Just as the bailout and the impact of NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, were receding as issues in the United States, illegal immigration, other problems along the border, and especially drugs emerged as major problems, further complicating the overall relationship. Last December, Zedillo appointed Gen. Jesus Gutierrez Rebollo to head Mexico's drug enforcement agency, then sent him to Washington, where he was praised publicly by his counterpart, U.S. drug czar General Barry McCaffrey.

GEN. BARRY McCAFFREY, White House Drug Policy Director: [December, 1996] Gen. Gutierrez Rebollo has a reputation of being an honest man who is a no-nonsense field commander of the Mexican army.

CHARLES KRAUSE: But McCaffrey's word became a major embarrassment when Gutierrez Rebollo was arrested in February, charged with taking payoffs from the very drug traffickers he was supposed to be fighting. The general's arrest created a furor in Washington, where members of Congress argued Mexico should be decertified as a trustworthy partner in the war on drugs.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT, [D] Missouri: There's simply no justification for certifying Mexico as an ally in this fight.

CHARLES KRAUSE: But once again President Clinton came to Mexico's rescue. Not only did the President certify that Mexico is cooperating, he beat back decertification forces in Congress. Last week, Zedillo lashed out at those critical of Mexico, calling Congress xenophobic and beholden to special interests. Our interview with the president took place late last week at Los Penos, the magnificent compound in Mexico City that is both his official home and office.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Mr. President, thank you for inviting us to Los Penos. It's good to see you again.

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO, Mexico: A pleasure to have you.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Thank you. Let me begin with the drug issue. To what extent have the drug traffickers been able to infiltrate and corrupt the law enforcement agencies in Mexico?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: I believe--and I want to be very clear about it--that wherever you have drug trafficking, there is corruption. There is perhaps one difference. We are fully recognizing that, and we are facing that challenge. I think that it is impossible to think of drug trafficking without thinking that some corruption to some extent is not taking place. I think it should be accepted by other countries--should be accepted to--and I think to some extent is accepted in the United States, and of course weaccept that. I am the one that when--that when I was campaigning three years ago said that drug trafficking was the most tremendous threat to our national security. And one of the reasons I said that was because I the drug trafficking threatens your institutions, threatens your police forces, threatens your judges. I think that this is true in Mexico, but unfortunately it can be true in the country. And I insist the difference is that we are recognizing that we are taking actions to face the situation.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Do you feel frustrated that since you made that statement three years ago that so little progress has been made here in Mexico?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Well, I think we have made some progress, not as much as I would like, but I am very optimistic that we will be able to make more rapid progress in the years to come, especially if we strengthen this relationship that we have been building with the U.S. government to attack this problem.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Your government has pronounced that it is disbanding the old drug enforcement agency and creating a new one that will presumably be somewhat different than the old one. Tell me, what are the differences? How is this new agency going to differ from the one it replaces?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Well, the emphasis that we put on people, the recruiting procedures that existed until now were people working that agency, were normal recruiting procedures for any police institution in our country. It has become quite evident that that cannot be done that way, so we are establishing a very strict, were careful procedure to--not only to recruit people but to follow up the right activities. We are also redefining the way in which these people are going to--the language these people are going to be trained--the way in which these people are going to be working. I think it's a complete overhaul, a new conception of how to deal with this kind of institution, and I'm quite confident that it will work better.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Do you think these kinds of procedures would have avoided the embarrassment of Gen. Gutierrez Rebollo coming to be named head of an organization and then your finding out that he, in fact, was in the pay of the drug dealers?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Definitely, definitely. I'm sure about it. I doubt that he could have passed the--how do you call it--the lion test--that is now being used in which they are questioned, the--whoever is applying for that job--they are questioned whether they have dealt at all with drug traffickers.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Lie detector test.

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Lie detector test for one thing. We are now also searching much more in the patrimony of the people that are applying for these positions.

CHARLES KRAUSE: The financial--

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: That's right.

CHARLES KRAUSE: --resources.

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: That's right. So I think that, indeed, if this procedure had been in place at that time, then I think we would have been saved, as you say, the embarrassment because he was a true embarrassment.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Is it time for the United States to change the certification process?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Well, I think that the experience that the United States has had with this instrument somehow shows there is not an effective means to face the drug trafficking problem. I think there is something contradictory between the concept of cooperation in which brought the United States and other countries relief, and the concept of certification. Somehow there is a unilateral approach in certification which obviously is not consistent with the concept of cooperation. So we do say, quite firmly, that the U.S. government, and especially the U.S. Congress, should reconsider this certification process.

CHARLES KRAUSE: In your meetings with President Clinton do you expect that drugs will certainly be one of the issues on the agenda? Do you expect there to be some concrete announcements coming from the meetings that would set new policies for the two countries?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Well, you know, we have been working for some time with the Clinton administration, and I think that's good news. That means that we are not going to establish a turning point in President Clinton's visit to Mexico, but rather we are going to take everything that we have been doing in a very positive and constructive way, put it together, wrap it up, you know, and we as presidents, and does it, and to not only commit ourselves but create a commitment from the government officials to make a strict follow-up of all those commitments.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Another issue on the agenda will be immigration from Mexico to the United States. Your government has some reservations, I believe, about the recent immigration law that took effect in the United States. I wonder if you could explain what those reservations are and what you hope may come from your meetings with President Clinton.

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Our main point is that migrants, whatever their condition, legal or illegal, should be at all times treated as human beings. Their basic human rights should be respected, their labor rights should be respected, and that all the procedures and actions that are taken by the U.S. authorities should be respectful of that. That's our main point. Beyond that, I have insisted that the immigration program is an economic problem that this--is between the level--the level of development in the United States and the level of development in Mexico, so I believe that at the end the effective solution is to increase Mexico's development. You can spend a lot of money in law enforcement, but if these differences persist, there will always be an incentive to go around the law to migrate. I think that's something that is not only well established in the U.S.-Mexican experience but in mankind's experience.

CHARLES KRAUSE: And finally let me ask you about the visit itself. It comes at a time of some tension between the two countries, between Mexico and the United States. What do you hope will come from this visit that may improve the relationship?

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: I don't think there has been a tension between Mexico and the United States. And I say that because I am convinced that with the Clinton administration we have had a very respectful, constructive relationship. Perhaps it will be difficult to find any other bilateral relationship in our history, in our common history, as one we have been able to develop. Of course, there have been some sectors in U.S.-American circles that have expressed at some points negative points about Mexico. But I don't make generalizations. On the contrary, for me, what President Clinton has done vis-a-vis Mexico is much more representative of the general American attitude towards Mexico. And with President Clinton we have found respect, and I think that's a lot. That's something that we Mexicans value significantly. President Clinton went for NAFTA; President Clinton supported Mexico when the peso crisis developed, so I expect that this visit will reaffirm our friendship, our mutual respect, and that we will beable to make further progress on the specific issues that concern both countries, such as aid, drug trafficking, migration, border issues.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Mr. President, thank you very much for talking with us today. Thank you.

PRESIDENT ERNESTO ZEDILLO: Thanks to you. FOCUS - BEATING THE ODDS

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Now, one city's fight against the flood. Fred de Sam Lazaro of KTCA-St. Paul-Minneapolis reports.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The Red River didn't stop when it left North Dakota. The smaller communities of Southern Manitoba, Canada, were consumed last week by flood waters that have formed a 350 square mile lake. But the raging Red hit a wall, almost literally, as it approached the city of Winnipeg. In sharp contrast to the devastated U.S. communities to the South, this city of 650,000 has tamed the swollen Red River. It's an engineering feat that's allowed most citizens to witness its record heights from a safe distance and prompted nervous optimism in Mayor Susan Thompson.

SUSAN THOMPSON, Mayor, Winnipeg: Everything at this point has held, but that's very careful language I just used; at this point, it's held. The city remains vigilant in its battle with the Red.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The city's vigilance dates back 47 years, the last flood of the century here. One hundred thousand people have to be evacuated, and more than ten thousand homes were lost. City water chief Doug McNeil says the 1950 flood prompted a comprehensive master plan to fortify the city. For example, streets along the river were built to serve as dikes.

DOUG McNEIL, Winnipeg Water Department: Earth clay-filled material was taken out of what was a level park at that time to build up primary dikes against the river. And one of those primary dikes is Lindale Drive, right here.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: So just got incorporated into building your streets practically.

DOUG McNEIL: Basically, they raised these streets along the river to a higher level to ward off the rising water levels in 1950. And since then, we have extended that primary diking system throughout the city as more developments have come on stream.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Okay. So what we're looking at here is the dike, in effect, working.

DOUG McNEIL: Oh, absolutely. And this dike is protecting the neighborhood that you see behind us, several hundred homes in this neighborhood, until the ground reaches a naturally higher level.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The system of primary dikes was only one of several flood management measures launched by the city and the province of Manitoba. City spokesman Terry Aseltine says by far the largest of these was a manmade channel called the Flood Way.

TERRY ASELTINE, City of Winnipeg: There's a huge excavation project. It took about eight years to build, cost $68 million, was completed in 1968. And what the Floodway does is it diverts the water. East of the city there are floodgates at the entrance to the city. The flood gates come up from the riverbed, stop the flow of water coming into the Red River, and divert approximately half of that water around the city to the East and to the North, where the Floodway takes the water back into the river again past the city.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: So on the other side of the floodgates the water level this year is some ten to fifteen feet lower as it flows into Winnipeg. Also helping lower the level is a diversion north of Winnipeg's other river, the Assiniboine. But Mayor Thompson says it became clear early that the elaborate infrastructure was not going to be enough to thwart this year's flood.

MAYOR SUSAN THOMPSON: And starting in December we put into place the worst case scenario because we understood that the ground could not absorb the water; that we had more snow than we've had in a hundred years, and that we would have factors to deal with which will be unknown. But we knew that we would be starting with would perhaps be a crisis developing into a disaster and perhaps ending up in a catastrophe if one were to try and define this. And, as it stood, we had to manage a crisis.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: City and province officials marshaled an all out effort to add several layers of perfection. Army troops with heavy equipment constructed a 10-mile long dike Southwest of the city to prevent an end run around existing walls.

SPOKESMAN: Make sure to maintain the shape of the dike. Try to avoid straight walls.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Along river front property in the city soldiers, volunteers, and city workers laid 6 million sandbags. The city's flood management drew praise from homeowners like Pat Ferguson.

PAT FERGUSON, Homeowner: They had done their homework weeks ago in April. We received notices about our elevation and the fact that we would be having to sandbag, and we were pretty skeptical, thinking there's no way because our property is, oh, a hundred feet back from the river, and there's a fairly gentle slope, and they insisted, and boy, they sure were right. And they were so organized in the production of the sandbags and in providing us with instruction how to build the dikes. They had sort of clinics down at the community club, so the residents could go and learn. And they kept us informed with notices delivered by hand, people's houses, as well as video on the cable TV channel, and I've been really impressed.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The river consumed much of Ferguson's backyard, including a swimming pool. And although the level of sandbags was higher than the river, the constant pressure has caused seepage. Two sump pumps send the water back over the wall. The key worry is whether the pumps and the sandbags can hold off the river for the two weeks it will take to recede. Taking no risks, the city built a second clay dike in front of homes in Ferguson's neighborhood, one of the few that's been evacuated in Winnipeg. The effort has not managed to save smaller communities outside the barricades. That's led to charges that rural and peripheral communities were sacrificed to save the city. Mayor Thompson says nothing could have stopped the '97 floods in those areas.

MAYOR SUSAN THOMPSON: This is more water than we've ever seen in a hundred years, and as best as you try to manage it through modern engineering techniques, which we had with the Floodway, you can't manage something that's 15 miles across, six to seven feet deep coming at you. You can manage a part of it, but you certainly cannot manage all of it.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: In fact, despite all the vigilance in well- fortified Winnipeg, city officials expect they will lose a few dozen homes. That still is a fraction of the damage sustained in much smaller Grand Forks, North Dakota. U.S. officials say flood management projects have been proposed for a study but have moved slowly in Grand Forks. The main problem is the price tag in today's dollars of hundreds of millions, affordable perhaps for larger cities but prohibitive for smaller ones. FOCUS - MAN VS. MACHINE

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Next tonight, man versus machine, Round 2. In one corner, weighing 176 pounds, chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov, age 34, born in Baku, Azerbaijan, world champion since 1985 and considered by many the greatest player in the history of the game. And in the other corner, weighing 1.4 tons, "Deep Blue," or rather "Deeper Blue," the new and improve RS-6000 SP supercomputer, designed and operated by five IBM scientists and able to examine about 200 million chess positions a second. Because it needs to be in a chilled room, the computer is linked by phone to a terminal at the site in New York City, where the contenders are in the middle of a re-match. Big Blue instructs the IBM scientist sitting at the terminal which moves to make. In last year's six-game match Kasparov won three games, the computer one, an two were a draw. The score so far this year: even--one to one. Kasparov triumphed in a close match Saturday. But Blue came back to win convincingly yesterday. The contenders play the third of their six-game re-match Wednesday. The winner will take home or back to the computer lab $700,000.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: For analysis of the match to this point we're joined by C. J. Tan, who heads the team of IBM computer scientists that built Deep Blue, and Frederic Friedel, a computer chess expert who serves as Gary Kasparov's technical adviser. Thanks for being with us Mr. Friedel, what happened yesterday? How did Deep Blue win so decisively?

FREDERIC FRIEDEL, Kasparov Adviser: We don't know. We are still studying the game. We spent all of yesterday evening and this morning studying it, and we haven't come up with the definite answer. It played very strategically.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And you were surprised by that, right? You knew it had great tactics, since it can make so many--can analyze so much every second, but strategically?

FREDERIC FRIEDEL: Yes. Computers are not supposed to be able to do what Deep Blue did yesterday. It played some moves which were very, very human. And if this is the case, if it can play in this way, then we have a very, very difficult task.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Mr. Tan, what did you do to it? You can't feed it spinach or Wheaties or anything. What did you do to it?

C. J. TAN, IBM: Well, we didn't feed anything except electricity. What we have is a deeper machine. Deep Blue can search deeper and also sharper because it now has much more chess knowledge. So you combine the speed with the experts' knowledge we imbedded to the system, and you have a very formidable chess player.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: But Kasparov won Saturday. Did you do something to it between Saturday and Sunday?

C. J. TAN: Not really. Saturday we were playing black, and Sunday we were playing white. So basically--

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And depending which one, you either go first or not, and there's a certain advantage, right?

C. J. TAN: Right. So the strategy for each of those games was a little bit different.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Mr. Tan, explain what Deep Blue is doing when it plays. It's not really thinking, right?

C. J. TAN: No. It's really doing computations. It starts with a specific chess board position. Then you search through all possible alternatives, and what, based on that search, he looks to the future very far and then based on its knowledge of chess, then you take the best move.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And its knowledge of chess depends on what you all--you and your five colleagues--

C. J. TAN: That's right.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: --have put into it.

C. J. TAN: Exactly. So Deep Blue, really as a machine, does calculations, and the preparation of the game begins on the scientist behind the machine.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And you're not a chess player, right, but one of you--one of your group is?

C. J. TAN: Well, our chess member is a relatively good chess player, and others are just computer scientists, and basically this is a scientific research project. However, we have employed as a consultant a former U.S. chess champion grandmaster Joel Benjamin. What we have done is try to capture experts' knowledge in specific field, and in this case chess, and that--program. We hope to use the same kind of model that we can apply that to other areas to apply this technology.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Mr. Friedel, what's it like in the room? You've been in the room. How does Gary Kasparov play against this? He can't read his opponent. Even though there's somebody sitting there, he's just--he's just doing what the computer tells him.

FREDERIC FRIEDEL: Exactly. This is one of the problems. Actually he must ignore this person because if this person looks worried or nervous or anything, it's for a different reason. And normally chess players look at their opponents before they make a move and after they make a move, they glance up to read body language. Here he shouldn't do it because he'll get false clues.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: How did you train him for this match? How did he prepare?

FREDERIC FRIEDEL: Well, I'm his computer consultant, and I help him on the computer side. It's interesting that Kasparov uses lots of computers to train, whereas, C.J. Tan just told us they use a lot of human beings. We have three computers in the room, and we are analyzing positions. We're trying to simulate what Deep Blue is going to play, and we have a program which--you know, which is exactly the same as Deep Blue, except it runs a thousand times slower, unfortunately.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: What do you think, Mr. Friedel, are Gary Kasparov's relative advantages and disadvantages against this computer?

FREDERIC FRIEDEL: I think they're perfectly clear. He can play strategic chess. He can plan very, very deeply. He can use his experience to decide which moves to play. Remember, he's looking at two moves per second. The opponent is looking at 200 million moves per second. And he has to use these faculties. That's why we are very upset or very disturbed by the fact that Deep Blue was playing extremely strategic chess yesterday.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Is Gary Kasparov doing something? Is he changing something for tomorrow?

FREDERIC FRIEDEL: I wouldn't be able to tell you, not with C. J. Tan sitting next to me.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Mr. Tan, how do you see the computer's advantages and disadvantages vis-a-vis Mr. Kasparov?

C. J. TAN: Well, the computer's advantage is speed and the precision of calculation, however, whatever knowledge it doesn't have, it will not be able to make a precise accusation, so the advantage also is it's being a disadvantage. Namely, the computer cannot do anything that you have not told it to do.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And Mr. Tan, you don't like the man versus machine metaphor, do you?

C. J. TAN: No, I don't.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Why? Tell us why.

C. J. TAN: Well, this is really not man versus machine, as Mr. Friedel has just told everybody. Both sides uses computers. Both sides use technology. So it's really man and computers together to solve a specific problem. Now, here what we are seeing is two different modes of using technology, and that tells us in the future what different ways of using technology to compliment our strengths and weaknesses. Their strength is Kasparov's knowledge and expertise. Our strength is our tool is better, so we compliment each other, and that's how we can use technology to solve our problems, help humankind to have a better life, a better future.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And, Mr. Tan, you mentioned earlier the application--the potential applications of Deep Blue's learning through this process of dealing with chess.

C. J. TAN: Right.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: What are they? Specifically, what might be applicable?

C. J. TAN: Well, we, the machine, the R-6000 SP we use for Deep Blue is already being used in many areas. The job researching, weather forecasting, oil exploration, what we have done with Deep Blue is to further those capabilities by specific application of specific knowledge in certain areas. So a lot of the things we've done already is to develop a system where we can discover drugs much faster based on similar type of technology we have developed.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: You can discover how a drug works?

C. J. TAN: Discover new drugs.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: New Drugs.

C. J. TAN: So we can shorten the time of a drug and go on to the market, and that literally translates into lives being saved. So there are other areas we'll be looking after this event's over, is to use this technology to have a better handle or to economic modeling out of the financial model, so help us to have a better handle on the financial situation.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Interesting. And, Mr. Friedel, in your mind, what are the implications of a Kasparov loss in this match, or perhaps he wins this time and the next time Blue is even better, what are implications of that?

FREDERIC FRIEDEL: Well, I think it will happen. The question is only whether it will happen this year in May 1997, or I believe in maybe five or ten years. And the implications would be that for the first time in history something which requires intelligence in an area which requires intelligence in human beings machines become better than human beings. I think people will look back in 50 years at the time when Kasparov or some other world champion is beaten, has a very auspicious moment.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Well, thank you both very much for being with us. We'll be eager to see what happens tomorrow. ESSAY - MIRROR IMAGE

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Finally tonight, some further thoughts about Mexico from essayist Richard Rodriguez of the Pacific News Service.

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ, Pacific News Service: The United States is the most powerful country on earth, the largest consumer, the greatest advertiser. But we like to imagine ourselves innocents in the great world. In recent years the Colombian drug lord has become a stock character in Hollywood movies. We have read stories about mayhem in Medellin, Colombia. Judges and politicians have been murdered in Bogota, and we in the U.S. have watched these scenes on the evening news with almost child-like detachment.

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT: I want to say a few words about Colombia and Mexico.

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ: Recently, President Clinton decided to decertify Colombia as an ally in our famous war on drugs. The White House gave Mexico a reluctant past, over the objections of many Senators and Congressmen who point an accusing finger at Mexico, complaining of Mexican corruption. To my knowledge, no American president, no. U.S. Senator, has ever apologized to Mexico or to Colombia for the way our drug habit has destabilized both countries, destabilized the entire hemisphere. America has a drug habit second to none in the world. That habit has created the drug lords of Latin America. We read now of Mexican scandals, murders, and conspiracies at the highest level, the great political families, various state governors, police officials are under investigation for being under the control of drug lords. Certainly if Mexico is in danger of falling apart, these are dangerous times, if also oddly hopeful times in Mexico. The old order, the PRI, the rusted ruling party of Mexico is collapsing. For all of its corruption, the PRI was a known entity. It enforced almost Victorian manners on Mexico. Now, rather like Russia after the Soviet era, Mexico stumbles toward civic chaos. Despite various Indian insurrections, Mexico seems not to be tempted by revolution as much as by an older consoling cynicism, a cynicism that might stand in the way of future civic reform. Mexicans are a dark, cynical people, tolerant of human failure, their own and others. Mexicans have long tolerated a corrupt civic life, just as they presumed a certain irony regarding their gringo neighbor. From the Mexican point of view we North Americanos are a prudish people, moralistic, self-righteous, given to self-delusion. For decades Americans slipped into neo-lit Mexican border towns whenever we needed whores or liquor or gambling or drugs. For decades Mexico obliged. It was the perfect meeting of cynicism and hypocrisy. There are Mexicans in a border town like Tijuana today who will tell you that Tijuana would not be ruled by drug lords were Tijuana not so near San Diego, the enormous appetite of Californians for drugs. That's a very Mexican sort of thing to say, to take a certain comfort in the universality of evil. The American, on the other hand, refuses Latin cynicism, but we do so as a way of ignoring our own corruption. We easily point an accusing finger at Mexico, or at Colombia. We assume self-righteous disdain as a way of ignoring our own state. But the North Americano and the Latin American, for all of our differences, because of those differences, are each perfectly vulnerable to the excesses of each other. Mexicans--Mexicans of average ambition and virtue, like most Colombians, are fascinated by America, want things American, want to be like us, wear our clothes, and drive our cars. It should come as no surprise. Latin America and the United States are neighbors. We are bound to influence one another and to be implicated in each other's lives. Mexico and Colombia, as smaller and weaker countries, know this. It does not yet occur to most Americans to see in Colombia's or Mexico's calamity a reflection of our own soul. I'm Richard Rodriguez. RECAP

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Again, the major stories of this Monday, Zaire's rebel leader warned President Mobutu to hand over the government or perish; a civil jury in Florida absolved R. J. Reynolds Tobacco Company of negligence in the lung cancer death of a life-long smoker, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 142 points to close at a record high above 7200. We'll be with you on-line and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Elizabeth Farnsworth. Thank you and good night.