The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; State of the Union Preview

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Pres. GERALD FORD [January, 1977]: In January, 1975, I reported to the Congress that the state of the Union was not good.

Pres. JIMMY CARTER [January, 1979]: Tonight, there is every sign that the state of our Union is sound.

Pres. RONALD REAGAN [January, 1982]: That is why I can report to you tonight that in the near future the state of the Union and the economy will be better, much better.

ROBERT MacNEIL [voice-over]: Tonight, what is the state of the Union in 1983?

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MacNEIL: Good evening. Beset by a depressed economy, sagging poll ratings and a nervous financial community, President Reagan faces Congress and the nation tonight to breathe some hope into the second half of his presidency. His State of the Union message, according to Republican leaders who had a preview, will say basically that Mr. Reagan is staying the course with some mid-course corrections. House Minority Leader Bob Michel of Illinois said after the meeting, "I was impressed that the President is living in the world of reality. He knows what the conditions are out there." But Benjamin Hooks, head of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, said in a speech today, "Mr. Reagan was living in a dream world of the rich and near-rich, committed to a course of action that is unreal." The President's televised address will be followed tonight by a blitz of comment from both Republican and Democratic parties, beamed by satellite to thousands of TV stations and cable systems. Now, before the speech, we have our own assessment of the state of the Union.Jim?

JIM LEHRER: Robin, the last few weeks have been mostly downhill for Mr. Reagan, at least in what has been said and written about his presidency. Editorial writers, columnists and commentators of all leanings and stripes have rendered harsh judgments, suggesting his administration is in disarray in both domestic and foreign affairs, and that he personally is out of touch with what's happening in the country and detached from the real task of running the government. And there have been the polls: two big ones, the ABC-Washington Post and The New York Times-CBS surveys, came out just today with bad news, both showing drops in the rate the American people approve of his job performance, matching earlier findings of Gallup, Harris and others. In public statements and on background, top White House aides acknowledge the problem, but say this kind of turn-off is par for the course of all presidents going into their third year. The extent of Mr. Reagan's problem is part of what we will be measuring tonight from a different state of the Union perspective, that of four editors of weekly newspapers from four different parts of the country. Robin?

MacNEIL: We go now to the region of the country which was the base of Mr. Reagan's support in 1980.

[voice-over] We start in the west, in the town of Glenwood Springs, Colorado, halfway between the ski resort towns of Aspen and Vail. The town of 6,000 people relies on tourists and the fluctuating oil shale industry.The weekly newspaper in Glenwood Springs is called The Weekly Newspaper. It serves some 15,000 readers within an 80-mile radius of the town. Its editor since 1976 has been Jim Files. He joins us tonight from Denver, about 150 miles east of Glenwood Springs.

[interviewing] Mr. Files, how does the state of the Union look from Glenwood Springs tonight?

JIM FILES: I think I'd say the state of the Union looks threatening, maybe threatened, both.

MacNEIL: Threatened by what?

Mr. FILES: Threatened by a deeply recessed economy. Threatened by maybe a depressed economy.

MacNEIL: How are you feeling that in Glenwood Springs?

Mr. FILES: Well, Glenwood Springs is basically a tourist-and service-oriented community. About 80%, I think, of our sales tax revenue comes from tourists, and we're seeing less tourists.

MacNEIL: I see. And you also have an oil-shale industry there.How has that been?

Mr. FILES: Well, it was really booming until last May when Exxon pulled out. We called it Black Monday.

MacNEIL: And that's really been hard on Glenwood Springs, has it?

Mr. FILES: It's been hard on the whole county, yes.

MacNEIL: Do you associate that with the recession, or do you see that as just a separate issue?

Mr. FILES: I think that's very much a part of the recession.

MacNEIL: How interested are people in Glenwood Springs whom you know going to be in what Mr. Reagan has to say tonight?

Mr. FILES: I think they're going to be very interested in what he's got to say because for a long time Glenwood Springs has been a very insular, isolated community, and just recently -- in the last seven or eight years -- we've started to become part of the 20th century, if you will, and I think the state of the rest of the Union is going to be very important to Glenwood Springs.

MacNEIL: Is there a particular thing that that community would really like to hear him say tonight?

Mr. FILES: Oh, I think a large part of the community would like to hear him say that the government is going to give some kind of financial support to oil shale. I think there's another part of the community that would like to hear him just forget about oil shale.

MacNEIL: How has all the discussion of the very large budget deficits that are projected ahead and how he should deal with those -- what are the attitudes to that in your community?

Mr. FILES: People are worried about it, and worried very specifically because Colorado is also facing a huge deficit this year, and we can see it, you know, one on one, that deficits are hurting us all.

MacNEIL: What is the feeling about what he should do about it?

Mr. FILES: That's a hard question. I don't know what people are feeling on that.

MacNEIL: Did Glenwood Springs go in a majority for Mr. Reagan in 1980?

Mr. FILES: The city,yes it did.

MacNEIL: And how would you think he would fare now?

Mr. FILES: I think his support is eroding quickly.Mr. Reagan's image as a westerner helped him immensely in Glenwood Springs in the election, but people are seeing him as a little bit devious, I think, nowadays.

MacNEIL: Is the effect that the economy is having on Glenwood Springs directly rubbing off on Mr. Reagan? You know, a lot of commentators said for a long time that his personal popularity and appeal rode above these issues. What do you feel about that?

Mr. FILES: I think the economy does have a lot to do with it. Just because Glenwood Springs is feeling the crunch itself and Mr. Reagan is the most obvious symbol of it right now.

MacNEIL: Well, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Moving east to Kansas, the country's agricultural heartland.

[voice-over] In Marion County, Kansas, with a population of 16,000, the main business is farming. It's a predominantly Republican community where President Reagan had strong support in 1980. The weekly newspaper for the area is the Marion County Record, with a circulation of 3,300. The paper was established in 1863. Its editor since 1967 has been Bill Meyer, and he joins us tonight in the studios of public station KPTS in Wichita, some 50 miles south of Marion. [interviewing] Mr. Meyer, is the recession being felt in Marion?

BILL MEYER: Yes, it is.

LEHRER: In what way?

Mr. MEYER: Well, we've had more business failures than I can remember in a long time, and the farmers are having difficulty, and they're looking at the conditions with a very guarded attitude.

LEHRER: What kind of difficulties, specifically, are the farmers having in Marion County?

Mr. MEYER: Well, it's unusual in that our farmers are now producing at all-time production highs, and also there are greater farm supports than ever, yet the farmers are making less net income than ever before.

LEHRER: Do they understand what's happening, why that's happening?

Mr. MEYER: No, I'm afraid there are no simple answers to the complex problem, although, however, I do believe that most of our farmers think that the payment-in-kind -- the PIK program -- will help them.

LEHRER: And is it the problems the farmers are having that is causing the store closings and that kind of thing in Marion itself?

Mr. MEYER: Yes. We're just absolutely an agricultural community.A number of our people do work in Wichita, and some have been laid off in the aircraft -- in the aircraft plants, but mainly Marion is an agricultural community.

LEHRER: Well, those people who are having problems, whether they be farmers or whether they're people there in the town of Marion, do they blame their problems on President Reagan?

Mr. MEYER: No, I don't believe so. I think they blame the problems on the 40 years that preceded President Reagan, and I think the President in Marion -- and that's all I can speak of -- is still popular and has a lot of believability.

LEHRER: Now, why is that? How do you analyze that?

Mr. MEYER: Well, when he came in office, we were having runaway inflation and sky-high interest rates, and of course our farmers work on credit. And 100% of the people in the area were involved in the sky-high interest rates and runaway inflation, and now, even though 10% may be unemployed, Reagan has solved those problems, and they hope that in the future he may be able to solve the problems of unemployment and the budget deficits.

LEHRER: Is it just a hope or is it a firm belief that Mr. Reagan is on the right course?

Mr. MEYER: I don't know. I think people want to believe and they want to have confidence. Our farmers, you know, have gone through a lot of hard times, and they're used to it. They'll have four or five bad years and then one home-run year in which they make the good profit, and they're hoping that they can see the light at the end of the tunnel and that perhaps things will get better. They can't get much worse.

LEHRER: On some of these other issues, these so-called national issues, like the budget deficit, defense spending, even nuclear arms, are those kinds of things on the front burner of debate in Marion?

Mr. MEYER: Yes, they are. There's an awful lot of talk about all of those issues. You know, in Kansas we have the cash-basis law which was put in in the 1930s by Alf Landon. And all governmental units have to work in the black. We have -- we can't operate in the red like Uncle Sam does, and we don't understand how Uncle Sam can give us community action grants or community block grants and revenue sharing and that type of thing when he is bankrupt and our local units are operating in the black.

LEHRER: So they support Mr. Reagan's push to reduce federal spending and the size of the federal government? No question about that.

Mr. MEYER: Except they haven't seen it. That's what bothers people. There really has not been a reduction in government spending, and of course the federal deficit has grown and grown. And that's what alarms people, and I think that that is the one thing where they mistrust the President.

LEHRER: They don't think he's going to do it?

Mr. MEYER: They want him to do it, but so far they haven't seen too much being done.

LEHRER: All right, thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: Now to one of the parts of the country hardest hit by the recession.

[voice-over] Next we focus on the Northeast. Belfast, Maine, is a coastal town whose 6,320 residents depend on seasonal employment in poultry and food processing as well as woodcutting and shoe manufacturing. The weekly newspaper in Belfast is called The Republican Journal, a 152-year-old paper with a circulation of 8,000. Jay Davis has worked on The Republican Journal for seven years, the last three as editor. He joins us tonight from the Maine Public Broadcasting Network in Orono, 50 miles north of Belfast.

[interviewing] Mr. Davis, how would you assess the state of the Union tonight?

JAY DAVIS: Well, I think it's not very good in Belfast. We have an unemployment rate that's probably 20%, and things don't look like they're going to get too much better in the very near future.

MacNEIL: What specifically has the recession done to Belfast?

Mr. DAVIS: Well, I don't think that you can blame the unemployment rate on the national recession. We're fairly isolated from the national economy, and the closing of a major employer -- a chicken plant -- I don't think had anything to do, or much to do with the national economy. But the feeling is that things are rough, real rough.

MacNEIL: Are people optimistic about the future?

Mr. DAVIS: Oh, I think that our area has all kinds of potential. We're right on Penobscot Bay, which is a beautiful and growing area. And I think that we have a good work force and a lot of available workers with an unemployment rate of 20%, so I think that there is a feeling of optimism about the area, whether that has anything to do with President Reagan or not we could talk about in a minute.

MacNEIL: Well, let's talk about that. What is the attitude to Mr. Reagan, do you think?

Mr. DAVIS: Well, again, it's hard to gauge because of the relative lack of impact on the local economy of the national economy. We voted for President Reagan in 1980. I think that if he were to run again against a strong Democratic candidate he would not win now.

MacNEIL: So they directly -- what would be the reason for that -- if they haven't felt the impact of the recession directly, what is the reason for that?

Mr. DAVIS: Well, I think a lot of the issues like nuclear arms and President Reagan's defense policy, and I think that especially his cutting back of programs that could help our area a great deal, like the Economic Development Administration -- I think those things have cast him in a light far different than when he ran for president in 1980.

MacNEIL: What would they most like to hear him say tonight, do you believe?

Mr. DAVIS: We have two projects that I think could do a great deal to benefit the unemployment rate and the economy of our area. One is a major cargo port, which the state of Maine has pledged $10 million toward the construction of. The other is an industrial park in the city of Belfast. And I think that people in Waldo County would probably most like to hear that the money from the Economic Development Administration that had been sought for both of those projects might be available in the coming year.

MacNEIL: Do people in Belfast have anything like the same attitude to the deficit and the role of the federal government as you just heard expressed from Kansas?

Mr. DAVIS: Well, I think a lot of people would look at it very simply. We're talking about a county that has an average income of about $4,500, which is just about half the national. People have a very difficult time balancing their own checkbooks and things, and I think that when you talk about a $200-billion deficit, that it's kind of obscene, and that, you know, people don't like to hear that kind of thing going on in Washington.

MacNEIL: Well, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Finally we get the perspective from a larger city, a southern city, Savannah, Georgia.

[voice-over] With a population of 140,000, it has both small-town qualities and big-city problems. A port city, Savannah not only relies on the ocean for its livelihood, but is also the home of one of the world's largest paper companies, Union Camp. In addition to its two daily newspapers, Savannah has a weekly paper called The Georgia Gazette. For the last five years the Gazette has been edited by Albert Scardino, a life-long Savannah resident.

[interviewing] Mr. Scardino, are federal deficits seen as obscene in Savannah?

ALBERT SCARDINO: I think that would be a good way to describe it. The population is very frightened.They feel that the federal government is out of control, and they were looking for something very different from this President. And what they've gotten is exactly the opposite of what they had expected.

LEHRER: They expected him -- just as Bill Meyer had said from Marion, they expected Mr. Reagan to reduce the size of the federal government and reduce the size of the federal budget and he didn't do it. Is that what you're saying?

Mr. SCARDINO: There was that -- there was that expectation exactly, and he's done exactly the opposite. These interest rates have been higher for longer than they have at any time in the history of the country. Unemployment in Savannah has been -- Savannah is in a fortunate position in that it has a very well-balanced economy, and we generally lag six to eight months behind the rest of the country. But what's happened recently is that everyonehoped that the recession would be over by the time it got to Savannah. By the time it got there -- it's not over yet, and the unemployment rate in Savannah is beginning to move up. We've been running two points behind the national level.

LEHRER: You're at about eight, something.

Mr. SCARDINO: We're at about 8 1/2 now, but it's rising very rapidly. In September it was -- it was 8 1/2 in November; the latest figures aren't out yet. But it was 7% as recently as August, and it is now up to 8 1/2 and is rising very rapidly. The volume of shipping in the port is down 25%; customs collections are way off; an awful lot of industries have laid off most of their work force. It's hitting home very quickly.

LEHRER: So when you say they're scared, in other words, they obviously do not expect this recovery to come too soon, or at least in any kind of dramatic way, is that right?

Mr. SCARDINO: I don't think they really believe a recovery is coming. When they hear talk of a recovery, most of the talk is things won't get any worse. They hoped they could hold on by their fingernails last year and that this year would be a lot better. And what they find is that they held on by their fingernails all year long last year, and now we're here and things aren't getting any worse [sic] any quicker.

LEHRER: Now, Savannah did not go for Mr. Reagan in 1980. It voted for President Carter, right?

Mr. SCARDINO: Savannah is in President Carter's home state, and that, coupled with the fact that 40% of the county's population is black and Mr. Carter received most of the black vote, carried the county for him.

LEHRER: I realize these are all difficult questions, but what's the feeling toward Mr. Reagan now in Savannah or the Savannah area, in any way you want to divide it up.

Mr. SCARDINO: Well, there are really three parts. There are people who are natural Reagan constituents. There are white middle- and upper-class residents of the city who feel very proud of his bringing down the inflation rate and, as they have put it, he's brought interest rates down from what they were. They're still historically very high. And there are the poor citizens in the community who have never supported Republicans, or not in recent times. And in the middle there is a huge group of people from whom Mr. Reagan drew an awful lot of support. Those are people many of whom were husbands and wives both working at jobs to be members of the middle class and to send a child to private school or to enjoy the other amenities of being in the middle class. And they were getting angry in 1980 because their incomes were being eroded by inflation. They're not angry anymore; now they're frightened, because one of them is out of a job, and the other one is looking at the prospects of losing a job.

LEHRER: Is the State of the Union message, what Mr. Reagan is going to do tonight -- is that a big deal in Savannah?

Mr. SCARDINO: I think there are people that are interested in hearing what is going on in their government, but I really don't believe that there are very many people who care what he says. They are much more interested in what he does. And he has said for two years that he would do exactly the opposite of what he's done, and they don't believe him anymore. They're looking forward to some action that will get -- they're not going to argue whether we balance spending at a low level or a high level. They want spending balanced so that we can get it back under control, and then we'll debate about whether we're going to have a lot of social programs or a few social programs.

LEHRER: Thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: Mr. Files, in Denver, you heard what Mr. Scardino just said: a lot of people don't believe there's going to be a recovery.Did the people you have talked to believe there is going to be a recovery?

Mr. FILES: Yes, I think people believe that it's going to recover, at least in Glenwood Springs. I don't think they believe it's going to recover very soon.

MacNEIL: And Mr. Meyer, in Wichita, your readers believe there's going to be a recovery?

Mr. MEYER: Yes, I would agree with Mr. Files. I think there will be a recovery, but it's probably going to take longer than we had anticipated.

MacNEIL: The people in Belfast, Maine, are confident there's going to be a recovery, Mr. Davis?

Mr. DAVIS: I think probably not confident, and I think they think that if something good is going to happen in Belfast, it's going to happen because people in Belfast do something. Although again there is that hope that this tiny amount of money in terms of the whole federal budget that might help create hundreds of jobs in the communities, you know, might be forthcoming as well.

MacNEIL: Just talking about mood again, Mr. Davis, you heard Mr. Scardino say that people in Savannah were frightened. Would you use that word to characterize the way people feel in your area?

Mr. DAVIS: I believe strongly that the elderly are very frightened with the controversy over the Social Security system. I mean, people in Belfast who are on Social Security live on shockingly little money, and to not get their cost-of-living increase or to feel that what little they get isn't going to continue is truly frightening.

MacNEIL: Are they blaming Mr. Reagan for that?

Mr. DAVIS: I think some of them do, and I think a lot of those who do voted for him in 1980.

MacNEIL: Mr. Files, is the word "frightened" an accurate word for your readers in Colorado?

Mr. FILES: I don't think in general frightened is the accurate word. There are some people who are just truly scared to death.I think the majority of the people in Glenwood Springs are hopeful. That's probably more accurate than frightened.

MacNEIL: Mr. Meyer, on the Social Security issue, would your readers share the views we've just heard of Mr. Davis in Maine?

Mr. MEYER: No, no. I don't believe that our people on Social Security are that worried. I think most of them are able to get along all right as it is, and they're willing to take a six-months' setback in their rate changes.

MacNEIL: If the President is going to bring the deficits down, he's obviously got to find some ways of cutting government spending as well as raising taxes. Mr. Meyer, would your readers favor some cut? Strong Republican territory there, interested in defense. Would they favor some reduced rate of increase of defense spending?

Mr. MEYER: Not only defense, but in all areas. As I understand it, we could draw a line through the defense budget entirely and still have a huge deficit in our federal budget. Now, I think we need to cut back in all areas, and I think our people feel that way, to where we all have to squeal a little bit. It's going to hit each of us a little, and I think we must all be prepared to do that.

MacNEIL: Mr. Scardino, in Savannah, is the defense budget sacred?

Mr. SCARDINO: The defense budget is very important because the military presence is very important in coastal Georgia, but -- and I think that an awful lot of people would like to see the defense spending maintained at some reasonable level. But, as I say, they're much more interested in bringing the budget under control and then deciding where the money ought to go.

MacNEIL: Mr. Davis, are people in Belfast, Maine, in favor of cutting defense in order to try and bring federal spending down?

Mr. DAVIS: Well, I think the ideological Reagan Republicans, of course, don't want to cut the defense budget. Ideological Democrats would like to. I would guess that the majority of people want to see the deficits down, number one, but most important I think they want to see the money the federal government can afford to spend spent on bringing jobs and the quality of life, you know, that people want to have as Americans back to them.

MacNEIL: Quickly, Mr. Files, what's the attitude to the defense budget in your part of the country.

Mr. FILES: Well, on the west slope of Colorado, the attitude is that we can do without three more M-16 rifles for every soldier.

MacNEIL: I see. Jim?

LEHRER: Mr. Meyer, in Marion, are you personally -- above and beyond what your community thinks, are you personally optimistic that the President and the Congress are going to get their act together and resolve these economic problems?

Mr. MEYER: Yes, I am. I feel that we must have confidence in the future, and part of our problem is that we've been -- we haven't had confidence. I think confidence may restore America to a place where we would like to be.

LEHRER: Mr. Files, what is your personal view?

Mr. FILES: I think that -- I'm optimistic because I think personally that Mr. Reagan is definitely going to hang tough on inflation, and I think that's one of the most important things.

LEHRER: Mr. Davis, your own view?

Mr. DAVIS: I'm not so optimistic. I think that President Reagan's budgetary priorities are askew, and from what you said at the beginning of the program about him staying the course through the final two years, I certainly couldn't be optimistic about those priorities being rearranged.

LEHRER: Mr. Scardino?

Mr. SCARDINO: I think it's one thing for the President to persevere. It's another thing for him to be obstinate. And I hope the other -- I'm optimistic that other members of his party will begin to carry much more weight in the decisions that come out of the White House.

LEHRER: Do you have the feeling that he has been obstinate, is that what you're saying, up 'til now?

Mr. SCARDINO: That's the feeling I have and the feeling I get from my community.

LEHRER: Thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: Well, that's our time. Mr. Files, thank you for joining us in Denver; Mr. Meyer, in Wichita; Mr. Davis, in Orono, Maine; and Mr. Scardino, in Washington. Good night, Jim.

LEHRER: Good night, Robin.

MacNEIL: That's all for tonight. We will be back tomorrow night after the State of the Union message. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.