The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, full coverage and analysis of the presidential election finish that still isn't over, plus, at the end of the program, the other news of this Wednesday.

A NIGHT TO REMEMBER

JIM LEHRER: The presidential race remains unresolved tonight. The issue is still the state of Florida, where a recount began this afternoon to determine the final winner of its 25 electoral votes. Last night the broadcast networks called Florida first for Vice President Gore, then for Governor Bush, and then early this morning said it was too close to call. Unofficial real vote counts now have Bush leading Gore in Florida by about 1,700 votes out of nearly six million cast. In Austin, Texas, this morning, Bush and his running mate, Dick Cheney, were optimistic.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: This morning brings news from Florida that the final vote count there shows that Secretary Cheney and I have carried the state of Florida. And if that result is confirmed in an automatic recount, as we expect it will be, then we have won the election. Recount is already under way and I understand the secretary of state of Florida has announced to the media that it will be completed by 5:00 PM tomorrow. We have asked former United States Secretary of State James Baker to travel to Florida on our behalf. He is a man of impeccable credentials and integrity and someone the American people can trust to make sure the outcome is finalized as quickly as possible, and in a calm and thoughtful manner. The strength of our American democracy was displayed in this exciting election. It was a close contest that produced a huge turnout. I want to thank all thesupporters who worked hard on our behalf. I also want to thank the Vice President's supporters for their hard work and their belief in their cause. I want to assure them that should the election go the way that we think it will, that I will work hard to earn their confidence. America has a long tradition of uniting once elections are over. Secretary Cheney and I will do everything in our power to unite the nation to call upon the best, to bring people together after one of the most exciting elections in our nation's history. Mr. Secretary.

DICK CHENEY: I would simply add what the Governor says, that we look forward to getting this matter resolved as quickly as possible so we can get on with the important business of transition, and are optimistic once this process is complete, as the Governor has said, that there will be a clear and decisive result, once the final count is completed in Florida tomorrow.

REPORTER: Governor, can you describe the events of last night and the phone call from the Vice President?

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I got two phone calls and we had a good discussion. Last night was obviously an historic moment and it's going to be resolved in a quick way. I'm confident that the secretary and I will become the President elect and the Vice President elect in short order.

JIM LEHRER: Vice President Gore spoke this afternoon in Nashville, Tennessee.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Yesterday the people of our country joined together to make a great nation decision, to choose the next President of the United States. We still do not know the outcome of yesterday's vote, and I realize that this is an extraordinary moment for our democracy. Joe Lieberman and I want to thank the nearly 50 million Americans who gave us their votes and confidence and I want to express my deep and profound gratitude to all of those who cast their ballots, however they cast them. We now need to resolve this election in a way that is fair, forthright and fully consistent with our Constitution and our laws. What is at issue here is the fundamental fairness of the process as a whole. Because of what is at stake, this matter must be resolved expeditiously, but deliberately and without any rush to judgment. Despite the fact that Joseph Lieberman and I won the popular vote, under our Constitution it is the winner of the electoral college who will be the next President. Our Constitution is the whole foundation of our freedom, and it must be followed faithfully to reward the true result ordained by the American people with their votes in our respective states. We are now, as we have been from the moment of our founding, a- nation based on the rule of law. When our Founders pledged their sacred honor to bring forth this republic upon which the hopes of humankind still rest, they affirmed the bedrock principle that Americans have followed ever since, the consent of the governed given freely in an election process whose integrity is beyond question is the living heart of our democracy. It is also crucial that the American people have full faith and confidence in the electoral process from which the President derives authority. Let me make my own resolve clear: No matter what the outcome, America will make the transition to a new administration with dignity, with full respect for the freely expressed will of the people and with pride in the democracy we are privileged to share. And I want all Americans, indeed the whole world, to be absolutely assured of that.

JIM LEHRER: The presidential race numbers tonight, without Florida and Oregon, which is also unresolved, have Gore winning 19 states and the District of Columbia, to Bush's 29 states. In the electoral votes, Gore leads Bush, 260-246. It takes 270 to win, which either would have if he wins Florida. In the popular vote, Gore leads Bush by about 98,000 votes out of some 97 million votes cast for the two of them. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader won 3% of the total votes cast nationally; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, less than 1%. In the Congressional elections, Republicans lost at least three seats in the Senate. They held 50 to the Democrats' 49, with Washington State still too close to call. But even in a 50-50 deadlock, they would keep control. If Republican Dick Cheney becomes Vice President, he would preside over the Senate, and thus cast tie-breaking votes. If Democrat Joe Lieberman becomes Vice President, he would have to give up his Senate seat in Connecticut, and that state's current Republican Governor would likely name a Republican to take his place. The House of Representatives will also remain in Republican hands. They won at least 220 seats to 211 for the Democrats, with two races still undecided. There are two independents. Overall, that's a gain of at least one seat for the Democrats. Those are the highlights of the election. Now the details, beginning with a play-by-play through one of political history's longest nights. Terence Smith reports.

TERENCE SMITH: From rainy rallies in Austin and Nashville to television studios in New York, it was an election night like no other.

CORRESPONDENT: Stay with us. We are about to take you on an exciting and bumpy ride.

CORRESPONDENT: There's every chance, as you know, that in many ways that is going to be an unusually interesting election night.

CORRESPONDENT: So, tonight if the race is as close as advertised, the three most important things are turnout, turnout, and turnout.

TERENCE SMITH: It began in a straight-ahead fashion. Indiana and Kentucky, where the polls closed early declared for Bush.

CORRESPONDENT: All eyes on Florida at this hour, Tim.

TERENCE SMITH: But the drama heightened sharply around 8:00 Eastern Time, when ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox all called the state of Florida for Vice President Al Gore. The Associated Press and PBS followed suit later.

CORRESPONDENT: We are now able to make a projection in the state of Florida. ABC News projects that Al Gore wins the state of Florida and its 25 electoral votes. Give him the first big state momentum of the evening. This is the biggest state where the race has been close; the fourth biggest electoral prize.

TERENCE SMITH: Soon after George W. Bush abruptly changed his plans to watch returns from an Austin hotel and return to the governor's mansion, but he was a long way from giving up.

CORRESPONDENT: George W. Bush all evening has been disputing the early calls on Florida and Pennsylvania.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: The networks called this thing awfully early, but the people counting the votes are actually coming up with a little different perspective, and so I'm pretty darn upbeat about things.

TERENCE SMITH: Gore's Florida win was short-lived. By 10:00 as more votes were counted, CBS and others retracted the call.

CORRESPONDENT: Bulletin: Florida pulled back into the undecided column. Computer and data problem. One of the CBS News election night headlines of the hour. This knock-down-drag-out battle drags on into the night, and turn the lights down, the party just got wilder.

TERENCE SMITH: In Austin Bush supporters were glued to television screens. Bush aides were ecstatic.

AIDE: We are stillvery hopeful. We believe that Florida will fall in the Bush column and that we have every reason to believe that Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Oregon will be there as well, and of course Alaska, which makes the next president of the united states, George Bush.

TERENCE SMITH: Meanwhile, representatives from the Gore campaign put the best possible spin on the bad news.

SPOKESPERSON: Well, the mood here is very optimistic. We are still waiting for the Florida vote count to be put back in the Vice President's column. We know that the boxes that are outstanding still in Florida are Democratic strong holds, so we feel pretty confident that we'll win Florida and win this election.

TERENCE SMITH: For several hours the vote seesawed -- Bush winning Arizona, Colorado and Alaska; Gore winning Wisconsin, Oregon, and Iowa. But in Florida the vote was unbelievably tight, as the NewsHour reported in its election night special at 1:24 A.M. Eastern Time.

JIM LEHRER: And speaking of close election, let's take a look now at the popular vote between Bush and Gore. It is just-- there are the numbers.

TERENCE SMITH: Close to 2:00 in the morning, the crowd in Nashville was subdued; in Austin, concerned.

SPOKESMAN: It all gets down to Florida.

TERENCE SMITH: Then suddenly another break for George Bush. Around 2:20 A.M., the networks began putting Florida back into his column and adding up the numbers.

SPOKESMAN: Doris, Doris, Doris...

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN: Uh-oh, something has happened.

SPOKESMAN: George Bush is the president elect of the United States, he won the state of Florida, according to our projections -- 25 electoral votes, NBC News projects that George Bush, it has been a night of first giving it to Al Gore then taking it away on the part of the networks. George Walker Bush, the new President of the United States.

TERENCE SMITH: On ABC Anchor Peter Jennings began writing Al Gore's political obituary.

PETER JENNINGS: I think one very good point, Michael Beschloss, you've had something interesting to say on every subject. We are very grateful for that, but let's talk a little about Al Gore -- a life in politics unlike many, if any, modern American politicians. He almost instantly may become a tragic figure.

SPOKESMAN: That's right, and about as well-prepared for the presidency as any man ever.

TERENCE SMITH: But the numbers in Florida narrowed again just as Vice President Gore was headed to the War Memorial in Nashville to concede. But that never happened. Instead, their followed a bizarre series of events and phone calls between the two candidates. Bush Spokesperson Karen Hughes described them this afternoon.

KAREN HUGHES: There were two phone calls. The first one the Vice President made to concede the election and congratulate Governor Bush. The Governor told him he was a good man, and that he had a respect... that he respected him. The Governor also told him that he understood that this was difficult for him and for his family, and that he gave his best to Tipper and to the Vice President's children. The second phone call was approximately an hour later. It was certainly a surprise that someone who had called to concede the election was calling back to retract the concession, and I think the Governor sought to clarify that that was in fact what was happening. I heard the conversation. He said, "let me make sure I understand, you are calling me back to retract your concession," or something to that effect? And he said, the last, the final outcome was "well, Mr. Vice President, you need to do what you have to do." That was pretty much the crux of it. It was a... it was a - an amazing, it was an amazing night. As you all know since you lived through it, I watched it this morning on television, some excerpts, and I thought maybe it had all been in a dream, then I realized I was awake the whole time.

TERENCE SMITH: In the wee hours of this morning, the networks reversed course and put Florida back in play. A few minutes after 4:00, Gore's campaign chairman spoke.

CHAIRMAN: Without being certain of the results in Florida, we simply cannot be certain of the results of this national election. (Applause) Let me add that Vice President Gore and Senator Lieberman are fully prepared to concede and to support Governor Bush if and when he is officially elected President. But this race is simply too close to call. And until the results... the recount is concluded and the results in Florida become official, our campaign continues.

TERENCE SMITH: Minutes later, Daley's counterpart in Austin, Bush campaign chairman Don Evans had this to say.

DON EVANS: Thank you all very much. Governor Bush and Secretary Cheney asked me to thank you for all your terrific support and hard work. We hope and believe we have elected the next President of the United States. ( Cheers and applause ) The latest count...the latest vote count in state of Florida shows Governor Bush winning the state by more than 1,200 votes. They are still counting, they're still counting, and I'm confident when it's all said and done, we will prevail.

TERENCE SMITH: That was Governor Bush's view today as he prescribed the roller coaster ride.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: It was an interesting night. Needless to say there was some consternation with Florida's governor during our family dinner when somebody jumped the proverbial gun, as we say, and so he is the person that really went through some, you know, obviously some interesting emotions. I was confident that, when it was all said and done that, Florida would be taken off of the declared state role and that cooler heads would prevail and the count would actually matter.

TERENCE SMITH: What did you tell the Vice President when he called the second time?

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I thought it was an interesting comment he made, and listened to what he had to say. I didn't have much to say.

TERENCE SMITH: Were you amazed....

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Well, I was. I felt like I was fully prepared to go out and give a speech and thanking my supporters and he withdrew his earlier comments, and here we sit.

TERENCE SMITH: Late this afternoon, President Clinton returned to the White House from New York where he had celebrated his wife's election to the Senate. He said he had spoken with the Vice President by phone after the race had been declared too close to call.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: We had a great talk later. You know, when the situation was as it is now, and we were laughing. We... he was in a good humor. We talked about the unpredictability of life and how he had done all he could and he was pleased that he was ahead in the popular vote at the time. I don't know what the latest totals are, and we had a very good talk. And he congratulated Hillary and they had a nice little visit, but, I was just like you last night. I was a fascinated observer.

TERENCE SMITH: Election workers in Florida headed back to work to begin an official recount just after noon today.

JIM LEHRER: The two campaigns sent teams to Florida to monitor the recount. They were led by former Secretaries of State James Baker for the Bush campaign, and Warren Christopher for the Gore organization. In Tallahassee today, Florida Governor Jeb Bush told reporters he would take a hands-off approach to the recount.

GOV. JEB BUSH: I have the greatest confidence in the independently elected bipartisan group of county supervisors of elections that is exist all across our state, as well as our independently elected secretary of state. These public servants will perform the mandatory recounts with the utmost diligence and professionalism. I, along with Attorney General Butterworth, are firmly committed to protecting the integrity of Florida's election process and will seek swift enforcement of Florida's election laws. Voter fraud in the state, in our state, is a felony. And guilty parties will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Both us have pledged to work together with Secretary of State Katherine Harris in this regard. Furthermore, to ensure there is not the slightest appearance of a conflict of interest, I have chosen to recuse myself from serving on the elections canvassing commission. Under Florida law this commission is the ultimate certifier of election results. Florida law requires that my replacement on the commission be appointed by the director of the divisions of elections in the Department of State. The stakes are high and the circumstances demand responsibility by both political parties, and by each of you. Both candidates, in my opinion, were treated unfairly by the early projections in Florida, as were the voters: In fact, many people outside of our state didn't know we also have people on central time zone, and so the projection made at the beginning in my opinion put in play or put at risk some of the voters in the panhandle part of our state. I have been disappointed by the lack of care exercised by some of those in the news media who have casually repeated or broadcast unsubstantial allegations of voting irregularities. Given the incredible weight of the circumstances at hand, I would hope and expect that news organizations will adhere to the high standards of accuracy as they report on the events taking place here in our great state. Finally, I'm incredibly proud of my brother and the substantive issues based campaign that he waged. I hope I'll have to never go through other evening like I did and I'm sure that the Gore family, if they were here today, would say the same thing, Attorney General. It was one of the most amazing and emotionally intense evenings of my life. But I'm very proud what my brother did. He ran a tough campaign. I believe he will be elected but the rule of law will determine that in our great state.

JIM LEHRER: Jeb Bush said he expected the recount to be completed by 5:00 P.M. Eastern time tomorrow, unless the margin is so small it becomes necessary to include the absentee ballots mailed in by Americans living overseas, including military personnel. That could take another ten days.

JIM LEHRER: More on the Florida recount now and to Gwen Ifill.

GWEN IFILL: They're counting six million votes in 67 counties. Joining us from ground zero in Florida to discuss this remarkable election, and the recount: John Shubin, a Miami attorney who specializes in election law.

GWEN IFILL: Mr. Shubin, it now comes down to 1,784 votes in Florida -- the difference between Al Gore and George W. Bush and the presidency. How bizarre is all this?

JOHN SHUBIN: It's completely bizarre. I don't think there is any precedent for it, not only in Florida, but within the United States. And as being a citizen of Florida, resident of Florida, it's absolutely astounding the extent to which every vote counts.

GWEN IFILL: You've been involved in other cases, elections law cases. What, if anything, went wrong with the process? Is it the process in Florida or is it just - I don't know, what is it?

JOHN SHUBIN: You are dealing with the process that is susceptible to manipulation and let me make it clear that I don't think there has been any hard evidence that has been presented or uncovered that there has been any external sources of fraud or manipulation with respect to this election, but I'm certain that both sides are investigating every lead that they receive and trying to determine whether or not there has been manipulation, undue pressure put on voters or fraud or confusion with respect to the ballot.

GWEN IFILL: Well, at the very least, this was such a tight outcome that it triggered and automatic recount, no matter whether anybody made allegations of fraud or not. Walk us through the process.

JOHN SHUBIN: Under Florida of law where a margin of victory is less than one half of one percent and where the losing candidate does not in any way waive their right to seek a recount there is a mandatory recount. And that is the process that the secretary of state is conducting as we speak. The recount will determine what the exact margin of victory was, either for Governor Bush or for Vice President Gore. At that point there is a number of overseas absentees voters where they know that there were absentee ballots requested and sent out. Obviously if the number of absentee ballots exceeds the margin of victory, they will wait for those ballots to come in and by procedure and by law they have ten days to wait for those ballots to come in.

GWEN IFILL: There seems to be there are three chunks happening. One is the mandatory recount, the other is the outstanding -- no one knows how many - absentee ballots; and the third are these allegations in Palm Beach County of fraud and manipulation or whatever. I don't know if those allegations have even risen to actual charges. Tell us about the latter.

JOHN SHUBIN: In Palm Beach County there have been allegations regarding the way that the ballot was presented to the voter. It was known as a butterfly ballot, which means in essence the names of the candidates rather than appearing in alphabetical order from top to bottom on one column alternated from a left column to a right column. The allegation is or the charge is that the ballot -- that there were people who believed that they were voting for Vice President Gore when in fact they were punching a hole for Pat Buchanan because of the alignment on the ballot.

GWEN IFILL: So what happens? Do you go to court to appeal this? Is that how you get some sort of attention or challenge this outcome?

JOHN SHUBIN: Absolutely, under Florida law there is a process -- two processes, either an election protest or an election contest. They are essentially for all intents and purposes the same thing, and you bring an action in the circuit court, which is a state court, and you allege certainly improprieties. And the normal processes occur, albeit but on an expedited basis. It is my understanding that late this afternoon -- and I don't know if it's been verified -- that an action was filed on behalf of three Palm Beach voters seeking -- I don't know what they were seeking -- but seeking to challenge the propriety of the butterfly ballot.

GWEN IFILL: When folks challenge election outcomes, in your experience, how often does that result in a different outcome?

JOHN SHUBIN: It really depends on the facts and circumstances. In one of the cases that I was involved in, the 1997 mayoral election in the city of Miami, it resulted in the appellate court throwing out all of the absentee ballots based on widespread allegations of fraud and misconduct and -- in effect -- it invalidated a runoff election and according to certain people, threw out the baby with the bathwater because of allegations of fraud and misconduct with respect to 200 or 300 absentee votes; the court threw out 40,000 absentee votes resulting in a different outcome in the mayoral race, so really the remedy is designed -- the court will design a remedy to fit the injustice or the impropriety or irregularly that is alleged and proven.

GWEN IFILL: Was it a good idea for Governor Jeb Bush, who is a member of the this three-member election commission which oversees this recap, was it a good idea for him to recuse himself from this today?

JOHN SHUBIN: I think it was a good idea, although the certification process is a somewhat technical process, I think that it's probably safe to say that it would be good for him to distance himself from any allegation, no matter how remote, that he could somehow influence this process.

GWEN IFILL: It should be probably also be noted that Attorney General Butterworth was the chairman of Al Gore's campaign in the state of Florida. Now that everything is in place and the counting has begun, how long will all this take?

JOHN SHUBIN: Well, that is the really difficult problem in evaluating what the outcome will be. Obviously the first question is what is the amount of the recount? If there were more absentee ballots that were sent out, as I earlier said, they'll have to wait for those overseas absentee ballots to come in. They will also have to wait between five and ten days after the certification to see what challenges, what legal challenges have been filed in the circuit court either by the candidates or by registered voters who are operating completely independently of the candidates in filing these lawsuits. Once those lawsuits are filed, like any other lawsuit, it remains to be seen how long those lawsuits will remain before the court before they are dismissed -- whether they go to trial. In the event of a case if there are serious allegations that are raised and a trial judge allows it is to go to trial it could take thee or four months to determine whether or not a portion of an election result, a county, a precinct, et cetera, could be valid.

GWEN IFILL: In your experience has it ever taken that long?

JOHN SHUBIN: In the City of Miami case it took close to four to five months before it went to trial and a little longer for an appellate decision. And that was done on an expedited basis. There were hundreds of witnesses, thousands of documents and a lot of allegations. Let me just keep it very clear, that to date I don't think anyone - I certainly haven't and I don't think the media has heard any allegation from either side that would even come close to the allegations that were made in the city of Miami mayoral race.

GWEN IFILL: Okay. Well, we have got some more time to wait before we know the outcome of this. Mr. Shubin, thank you very much.

JOHN SHUBIN: Thank you so much. Good evening.

FOCUS - BAD CALL

JIM LEHRER: Now, Media Correspondent Terence Smith looks at the news media's double bad call last night.

TERENCE SMITH: By any measure, last night was a nightmare for the news media, especially network television. To help us sort out what happened and why, we are joined by Marvin Kalb, executive director of the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics, and Public Policy; and by Warren Mitofsky, president of Mitofsky International, who is one of the founders of election exit polling. Last night, he advised CNN and CBS on their projections and retractions. Gentlemen, welcome to you both. Warren Mitofsky, you have been doing this exit polling on election night for years. What went wrong last night?

WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, we made a beautiful mistake or a mistake that was a beaut, I should say. The first projection, the projection for Vice President Gore winning Florida, was a little before 8:00. It was based on exit poll data, actual vote returns that were being released by voting officials and on county data that was being tabulated separately. And those three sources of data gave us projections, different projections that showed Vice President Gore carrying the state by a small but comfortable margin.

TERENCE SMITH: And were those bad numbers or was there poor judgment involved?

WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, we subsequently, after the projects was on the air, found bad numbers in one county, and we also had a sample that misrepresented the West Coast of Florida. It over represented the Democratic vote in the Tampa area.

TERENCE SMITH: Right. But then of course later you called it for Governor Bush.

WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, the projection after 2 o'clock in the morning was really based on the vote counts, almost all the votes were counted. I couldn't believe there were over 90% of those votes counted, and at that time Governor Bush was leading by about 56,000. We looked to see where the votes were missing -- the ones that have yet to be counted, and when we did that analysis, we thought, Governor Bush had a sure margin of at least thirty to thirty-five thousand votes. It turned out that that was wrong too.

TERENCE SMITH: Right.

WARREN MITOFSKY: That's why I said the mistake was a beaut.

TERENCE SMITH: Given yours experience, were you surprised when you were wrong?

WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, yes, I've done this for many years. I've made mistakes before, not very many. I've called the wrong winner five times, you know, in over 30 years, but to make two mistakes in the same state in the same night beyond anything that I've experienced before.

TERENCE SMITH: Marvin Kalb, what do you think is the impact of this mistake on the audience, on credibility on the networks?

MARVIN KALB: Mistakes have consequences. I have enormous good, warm feelings for Warren Mitofsky. He is won of the best in the business -- but mistakes having consequence that is people who make them have to account for them in one way or another. For example -

TERENCE SMITH: The networks.

MARVIN KALB: The networks have to account for them. The people who work for the networks to make certain statements to the public, it's not only the public that is dependent upon these calls; it's the political system itself. Governor Bush was dependent upon it. Vice President Gore was dependent upon it. Everybody is. So these calls I say they have to be right, and most of the time they are. They are terrifically effective instruments. At the same time look ahead now and I question really what will happen to the credibility of this kind of a system in the long term. Look ahead to the year 2004. Let's say Florida is again in play. Let's say the race is again close. And let's say they come in with a call. Will you automatically believe it now as a citizen or will you question it? Will you remember what happened in the year 2000? I think the networks have a lot of self-examination to do because if they don't, there will be a lot of people outside of the networks, political officials, Governor Jeb Bush said it on the program just a couple of minutes ago that the political people will look at the networks and expect them to could something about it.

TERENCE SMITH: Was the mistakes of a proportion -- in your view -- that makes it worthwhile to review or revise the very use of exit polling on election night?

MARVIN KALB: I spent a lot of time today talking with network executives, and a number of them raised with me the idea that people on the outside are going to say to us, what about exit polling -- are we doing that right? What about these calls -- are we too hasty? So they are aware of it, but I'm afraid that there may be calls outside of networks, perhaps in the Congress, perhaps in the executive branch for there to be new sets of guidelines that we cannot any longer just trust the networks to do it.

TERENCE SMITH: Warren Mitofsky, what do you think about that? Has it reached a point where you ought to review what you do and how you do it?

WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, we review what we do after every election. We learn from our mistakes. Fortunately, we've had very, very few mistakes. The process is extremely reliable. As I say, I've participated in over 3000 elections in a half dozen different countries. Prior to last night I have had exactly five mistakes in all these years. No process is perfect, but this process is about as good as I think you can make it. And we'll make it even better learning from last night's mistakes.

TERENCE SMITH: What are the lessons from last night's mistakes?

WARREN MITOFSKY: Well, the lessons are not to be more careful. We were as careful as we could be. And we were wrong. We can institute certain statistical procedures to help us with our quality control and our verification of numbers before we believe them and use them. And that part of the process deserves looking into and will probably get refined as a result of what happened last night.

TERENCE SMITH: You were talking about some possible oversight or review of all this by Congress or other -- what do you have in mind?

MARVIN KALB: What I have is mind is that a number of the people I talked to today raise an interesting question. We are, they say, totally dependent upon the networks for this information. If it seems, as Warren has outlined tonight, that you even with the best, they can't get it right and can make two mistakes in one night, maybe they should not be trusted to do it anymore. They may not be - there could be an actual skepticism to go with it. So then to whom do you turn? And it could be that people will say maybe there ought to be a commission set up to look this. This you cannot trust the networks to do it right anymore and the networks themselves are not the networks that Warren remembers from the old days at CBS. The networks today are different instruments. They are under phenomenal competitive pressures. They make decisions today, news decisions based on ratings, on money, on a determination to succeed, sometimes, sometimes even without regard to the quest for facts and accuracy.

TERENCE SMITH: Did you - Warren Mitofsky -- did you feel under any competitive pressure last night to make projections before you were ready?

WARREN MITOFSKY: I didn't feel under any more pressure to make a projection last night than I've ever felt in all the years I've been doing this. I've been making projections with the same care for all of these years. Sure people would like to see projections made quickly, but in my first election and almost every election since then, executives at news organizations, when push comes to shove, have gotten down on their knee, not literally, and said I don't care how long it takes -- I want to be right. I heard it in the first election from Bill Leonard, who we all work for, and I heard it as recently as this election from the executives at CNN and CBS.

TERENCE SMITH: All Right. Final thought, Marvin Kalb, what do the networks need to do, do you think, to rebuild this confidence that you are talking about?

MARVIN KALB: I'm not sure, frankly, that the networks can rebuild the confidence that they once had. The public confidence is based on performance, and what happened last night was pretty horrendous -- a whole night of questionable commentary flowed from that decision in Florida. So a lot of people were being misinformed. And this is a very large mistake. And I think consequences will flow.

TERENCE SMITH: Warren Mitofsky, thanks so much for joining us. Marvin Kalb, thank you both.

FOCUS - POWER STRUGGLE

JIM LEHRER: The races for the House and Senate also provided their share of the unusual. Kwame Holman reports.

KWAME HOLMAN: Senate Republicans have held at least an eight-seat majority throughout this Congress. The numbers enabled them to initiatives sponsored by the Democrats. But conversely Democrats held just enough seats to delay and in some cases derail some Republican proposals. The result for the most part was mutual frustration.

SPOKESMAN: There will not be cooperation unless we understand that the minority has to have its rights too.

SPOKESMAN: I'm not going to be threatened and intimidated by the minority in trying to get our work done.

KWAME HOLMAN: The results of yesterday's elections only sharpened the party division in the Senate. Democrats lost two seats but more than offset that by picking up five seats held by Republicans.

SPOKESMAN: We are now 49 Democrats strong in the Senate. And we fully expect to be an historic 50/50 with the election of Maria Cantwell in Washington State.

KWAME HOLMAN: This afternoon the votes still were being counted in Washington State where former House Member Maria Cantwell, the Democrat, held a thin but steady lead over the three-term Republican incumbent Slade Gorton. Hillary Clinton was the clear winner in the most anticipated Senate matchup. She defeated Long Island Congressman Lazio to maintain the Democrats' hold on the New York Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Daniel Patrick Moynihan. She becomes the only First Lady to win elective office.

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: We started this great effort on a sunny July morning in Pinders Corner on Pat and Liz Moynihan's beautiful farm and 62 counties, 16 months, three debates, two opponents, and six black pantsuits later, because of you, here we are.

KWAME HOLMAN: The Democratic candidate in the Missouri Senate race, Mel Carnahan, was killed in a plane crash three weeks ago. Nonetheless, voters narrowly chose him over Republican incumbent John Ashcroft. It's expected Carnahan's widow, Jean, will be appointed to serve in the Senate for two years when a special election will be held. This afternoon, Ashcroft wished Carnahan well and said he would not challenge the unprecedented result in court.

ASHCROFT: I'll discourage others from challenging the will of the people in the election of their United States Senator. I will not initiate any legal challenge. And will not participate in any legal challenge.

KWAME HOLMAN: In Michigan, House Democratic Debbie Stabenow ousted Spencer Abraham after his one term in office. And in Minnesota, rod grams lost toDemocrat and multimillionaire Mark Dayton.

SPOKESPERSON: Good evening, new jersey!

KWAME HOLMAN: Former Goldman Sachs investment CEO John Corzine spent $60 million - most of it his own money -- to defeat House Republican Bob Francs in the race to succeed the retiring Democrat Frank Lautenberg. Former Republican Governor George Allen defeated Democratic incumbent Chuck Robb in Virginia. And former Governor Tom Carper defeated Republican incumbent William Roth in Delaware. In Nebraska, former Democratic Governor Ben Nelson narrowly out-polled State Attorney General Don Stenberg to replace retiring Democrat Bob Kerrey.

SPOKESMAN: Good evening, Florida!

KWAME HOLMAN: Florida state insurance commissioner Bill Nelson, a Democrat, defeated House Republican and former impeachment manager Bill McCullom in their race to succeed retiring Republican Connie Mack. This afternoon, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle said the gains made by Democrats don't have to mean more conflict with Republicans.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE: Power sharing is a unique concept. We recognize and I hope they recognize that the only way the Congress will accomplish anything is through bipartisanship. It simply will not occur in any other way. They don't have the votes, we don't have the votes, and I think that realization could actually change this.

KWAME HOLMAN: In the House of Representatives, Democrats needed to gain seven seats to take majority control away from Republicans. It appears they picked up only one. The new House will have 222 Republicans, 211 Democrats, and two independents. Also speaking this afternoon Virginia's Tom Davis, head of the Republicans Congressional Committee, said Democrats missed their chance.

TOM DAVIS: The Democrats took their once in a generation opportunity and a chance to win back control of the House; they fell short. I think what you are going to see is in the coming months Democrats will face a steep electoral challenge in redistricting, and a wave of potential retirements in their ranks. Several House Democrats have already signaled that they are pondering crossing lines to join our ranks. We will welcome these Democrats with open arms.

KWAME HOLMAN: Among the fewer incumbents to lose their reelection bids were Democrats David Mingy of Minnesota and Sam Gejdensen of Connecticut. The most notable Republican loser was James Rogan of California, also a former House impeachment manager. Rogan lost to Democratic State Senator Adam Schiff in a race that cost more than $10 million. Davis said Republicans limited their losses yesterday by employing a better strategy than their opponents.

DAVIS: Democrats had a cookie cutter message they tried to take into every district in the country. It played in some districts, it didn't play... We put together - we tried to recruit candidates that fit the districts. We had a different victory matrix in each of the targeted areas. Instead of allowing the Democrats to nationalize the elections, the way they did in the Senate races, we ran a series of local special elections. That was our strategy from the get-go. I think it worked. I think it prevailed. And that is why I think we probably over performed.

TERENCE SMITH: The new House and the newly elected senators will be sworn into office in January.

FOCUS - ELECTION 2000

JIM LEHRER: Now, some final words now from Shields and Gigot: Syndicated columnist Mark Shields; "Wall Street Journal" columnist Paul Gigot.

Let me ask you one last time: Who is going to win the year 2000 race for President of the United States.

MARK SHIELDS: Jim, I have the envelope. But I can't reveal it. Right now, you have to bet on George W. Bush. He has got a lead. The likelihood of it being overturned is not strong. But, Jim, if anybody had bet that there was going to be a result in this election where one candidate would won the popular vote and the other candidate would win the electoral, 99 out of 100 people on the press bus would have said, oh, okay, that is Bush winning the popular and Gore winning the electoral vote. And we got a reverse, so we are beyond surprises. We are in the land of Oz. I still think Bush but I won't bet Paul's bicycle on it.

JIM LEHRER: Paul's bicycle. What would Paul bet on it? Have you picked up anything around the edges about where things stand down there?

PAUL GIGOT: No, I agree with Mark's assessment, although I think the popular vote isn't over yet. At noon today the margin was 225,000 votes. By the end of the day, when I came over here it was 97,000 votes. There are a lot of votes that will have to be cast. I expect that to be quite close at the end, it's astonishing when you think about it. 100 million votes cast -

JIM LEHRER: One hundred million -

PAUL GIGOT: -- and it's 100,000 votes. Anybody who tells you a vote doesn't matter, you know, just tell them, you know, where have you been.

JIM LEHRER: How do you read this recount that is under way in Florida? Any questions or any concerns?

PAUL GIGOT: Well, I think it's good that both campaigns are sending grownups to go down there and check it out - Jim Baker for the Republicans, Warren Christopher for the Democrats. And I think there's a potential here -- there is a danger here of a real crisis of legitimacy if there is a fight, protracted fight. I mean, if this goes like most recounts do, which is they tend to validate what has happened, then I think it will go fine. Al Gore had a grace note today where he stood up and said the electoral college will prevail - just because if I win the popular vote, it's not going to count; the electoral college counts. It was good to hear. But it depends on what happens. I mean, if a box of votes shows up somewhere, or you get a real controversy, or it's contested, some votes are contested, we could -- it could be a long time.

JIM LEHRER: Do you have the feel of that, do you have the smell of long time here?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, it's a great time for my high mindedness. The Bush folks were all prepared according to my conservative sources to challenge legally if George Bush did win the popular vote and Al Gore won the electoral vote. They had done the research; they had the attorneys; and I assume they'll now turn that over to the Gore people just to expedite the matter. State law is pretty clear, Jim: One half of 1% and that is -- that triggers a recount -- a real vote recount. Six million votes cast -- 1% of 60,000 -- One half of 1% is 30,000. We are talking a out .1 of one half of 1%. I mean, that is how close this is. I mean, it's really remarkably close. I agree with Paul that Warren Christopher and Jim Baker are good signs.

JIM LEHRER: Yeah. You know, Mark, you talked about this last night at sometime during the night - that it's almost impossible to imagine the personal trauma that a situation like this creates for both of these men: Vice President Gore and George W. Bush -- and today just heightened it watching the two of them in our news accounts a while ago, you could just feel it.

MARK SHIELDS: Well, I mean, Governor Bush last night I think it probably was tougher to some degree because he was serenely if not supremely confident going into last night. Not only the predictions of victory among those in his entourage, but there was a sense of I am the next President of the United States he said in the last rally and all of a sudden he is having dinner with his brother, Jeb Bush, the governor of Florida and in comes word that Florida has been given by the networks to Al Gore, and he is sitting there at dinner with his wife, his daughters, his folks, and his brother and gets up and leaves. And says, I'm going back to the mansion with his wife and his parents -- leaving his daughters and his brothers there to I guess kind of pay the bill and fill out the tip. It had to be an emotional roller coaster for him to say nothing of Al Gore, who had the one advantage in that he had gone 40 consecutive hours of campaigning without sleep before last night.

JIM LEHRER: And he had a phone call - I'm sorry-

PAUL GIGOT: I was going to say give Al Gore credit. He outworked George W. Bush. There is no question about it. He really did work hard. You can't blame him for not putting everything he had into it.

JIM LEHRER: What about those phone calls - to get the call? Al Gore makes the call and says I concede, Governor, and then he calls back an hour later and says never mind.

PAUL GIGOT: It had to be amazing. I know the Bush people were taken aback by it -- no question about it. But, look, it was only -- the vote had narrowed to only a couple of thousand votes so you -- you can't blame Gore for asking for a recount when state law commands it.

JIM LEHRER: I mean, he could have waived it, could he not?

PAUL GIGOT: He could have. He could have. And that certainly would have been a gracious, gracious thing but I think it would have been automatic anyway. Wouldn't it have been automatic?

MARK SHIELDS: It is automatic unless you say no -- and say, I don't want it.

JIM LEHRER: Where do you come down on this issue about the networks? For instance everybody is rethinking things. I mean, we were, our hands were not clean last night either. We were using AP calls, and we made the same mistake that everybody else did. We just went off the air in the final number. We called -- we used AP and we called Florida at 8:00 -- shortly after 8:00 for Gore. When they said, no, no, no, later, we did the same thing. When do you think is going to come out of this, or should come out of this in terms of calling these elections?

MARK SHIELDS: We've been through this. It really began in 1980, Jim, with President Jimmy Carter who conceded just before 10:00 Eastern Time. And there were people waiting to vote in polling places in California and Oregon who left. He said he conceded. This was an hour before the polls closed out there. And Democrats never forgave him. People -

JIM LEHRER: That was accurate; we are talking here about getting it wrong.

MARK SHIELDS: About getting it wrong. The question -- getting it wrong. I see. Well, I mean, I give Warren Mitofsky for coming on with Terry Smith tonight and being very blunt about t. It was a human error. I think there is pressure. You hope they remove some of the pressure and some of the competitive urge when they pool it so everybody callings it at the same time. If CNN, ABC, --

JIM LEHRER: Which is essentially what happened last night.

MARK SHIELDS: Last night when - Karl Rove -- the Bush people had a good point. So did Jeb Bush. Florida is in two time zones. So when it was called, the polls were still open in Florida.

JIM LEHRER: Do you have an opinion on this?

PAUL GIGOT: Contrast that with the fact that they didn't call states that Governor Bush then ultimately won pretty comfortably: West Virginia, Ohio, Georgia - I mean, he won Georgia by 15 points - and they were holding back on it and holding back on it. You wonder why. So I think there's a lot of -

JIM LEHRER: You don't think there was a conspiracy, do you?

PAUL GIGOT: No, I don't think there was a conspiracy; I think their judgment was bad. And I think it really raises some questions about whether or not you want it hand it off, take it out of the networks' hands, and hand it off to some group where both campaigns, perhaps, play a role or something like that. I don't know. I mean, you'd like to think --

JIM LEHRER: You mean you would have all the folks come and get the exit polls and both campaigns would have to sign off on whether or not -

PAUL GIGOT: That is probably a lousy idea I just came up with.

MARK SHIELDS: The Republicans objected in Massachusetts being declared for the Democrats.

PAUL GIGOT: This sort of thing just can't happen because it does have effects.

JIM LEHRER: One of the things that Kwame had in his piece is that very interesting race in Missouri. John Ashcroft, who they're - was speculation that he would challenge - somebody would challenge the right of the governor to appoint Carnahan's widow, no matter what the results were, he said I'm not going to do that.

MARK SHIELDS: Two thoughts on that. I mean, first of all, absolutely an historic occasion. I mean, here we are in the closest presidential race and the First Lady getting elected to the Senate - that story stands all by itself. I mean, when Mel Carnahan's plane went down, all of a sudden all the pundits, all the analysts said is that a solidly Republican Senate seat now, but first of all, John Ashcroft did the gracious thing today, but it was enlightened self-interest. It preserved his own political career. If he had been the plaintiff in a case to deprive a widow of the seat which her dead husband won in an open election, it would have been the kiss of death for him.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree?

PAUL GIGOT: I do agree with that but it was still a degrees note and maybe and probably should be something that Al Gore looks at if in fact the vote count reaffirms what happened in Florida.

JIM LEHRER: When to pull the plug you mean?

PAUL GIGOT: Yeah, instead of contesting this in the courts as some other Democrats are say they're bound and determined to do. They'll fight till Al Gore's last breath.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Well, We have just scratched the surface of all of the implications of this election, and we'll be talking about it over the next several days and maybe even weeks. Who knows? Thank you.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: In the non-election news of the day, Palestinian Leader Arafat headed to Washington to discuss salvaging the Middle East peace process. But four more Palestinians died in clashes with Israeli troops in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and an Israeli woman was killed by gunmen who opened fire on her car. Also today, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Barak released a letter to world leaders. It promised a viable Palestinian state, but only through negotiations. As always, we'll see you online and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.