Toward a new world; India: The politics of frustration, part one

The Institute on world affairs the Institute on world affairs held each year on the San Diego State campus brings together statesmen scholars military leaders and businessmen from all over the world. The purpose of this institute is the understanding of the problems and challenges that face man gained through knowledge and discussion. This year's theme was toward a new world and here to introduce this session speaker is Professor Minos generalise director of the Institute. We continue our discussion this morning. Turning our attention to. What is generally defined here graphically as a hothouse Southeast Asia. Great country. Called India. Some people seem to think of India in terms. More of a mass of humanity than as a. Political entity.

Indeed though. Like every other country it has its own particular set of problems its own set of vital interests its own confrontations its own ideology or ideologies. Its own particular geopolitical second set of circumstances. National character and the like. It is a country which has been reset in modern times by a variety of issues which have not been satisfactorily resolved. People who have primarily suffered the pangs of growth into the area of just realization as well as in every other area that a country can possibly conceivably be involved in.

Its background as you know. Colonialism has set it in a certain category a pattern in the light of in the eyes of some people. Its religious affiliation is set into another pattern. They're out there for many factors that have to be considered to understand the role of this country in today's world and particularly in tomorrow. Now in analyzing here the future. India provides us with an excellent example of a state which is classified as underdeveloped or developing has not yet reached a takeoff period. Which has had close contact with the Western world yet is not part of the Western world has tried in the post-war Iraq to maintain some kind of an intermediate position oft times criticized in this country as being pro the

other side. A country which has been subject to intend to a form of aggression and part of one of its neighbors which is in turn affected its the last thing. A country which is tried through its leaders and its own culture. It seems to me to be fair in its evaluation of its responsibilities. Such is the substance of our discussion this morning and we have here to deal with this subject. A man who is indeed an expert who spent considerable time in India and is freshly back from India. Doctor the University of Oregon for you is a professor of political science. Been three times on a Fulbright grant. And during the period of 1962 63 was acting director of the United States Educational Foundation in India which is responsible for the entire program.

He has devoted most of his time in recent years therefore to analysis and understanding of the perplexing area. He has come to us fresh from a study of the Indian elections in the political scene is examined. Indian foreign policy etc. the subject that he is going to deal with is I believe self-defining and I will spend no more time in trying to introduce him to India the politics of frustration and Dr. Shah who many heard on many another occasion at this institute a friend and valued colleague. Like what. I assume at this stage in the game although you're only in the middle of a movie you may feel that getting out 9 o'clock in the morning particularly after standing at station the evening is a little bit trying. I do feel quite honored that you should invite me back again I can't remember

whether the third or second or third or fourth time but it's somewhere in there. I feel particularly honored that I should be included among sort of sandwiched between a list of illustrious speakers as I noted on this program. Of course the meet is supposed to be in the middle of the SandRidge I don't know whether you had that in mind or not. In edging me at this period of thumpers. I'm really not an expert on indie or anything else. Actually my field is more international relations and foreign policy and one should not really I suppose something which is more or less in the margins of competency that I've become particularly fascinated by aspects of India and have even ventured to teach there. I haven't done much writing on it except in the area

of foreign policy where I'm doing some work now. Really Indians are becoming increasingly frustrated and I think under these circumstances it would be rather surprising if frustrating was not an important perhaps even dominant aspect of Indian politics. But having said this I hasten to make two points. First Indians everyday got a great deal to be frustrated about. And secondly I think that other countries in the world whose politics who could write in terms of us certainly ours could be included in that category. There are certainly important aspects of frustration in the 1964 presidential campaign. And it seems to me there are also in the intractable the Lemmons of the Vietnam quagmire and of course not to mention the discontent and

frustration among our negroes and ardent pride. Actually both India and the United States as I see it have failed to develop a truly integrated society and to the extent to which they have they have given the lie to their democratic creed. And in both countries there is a growing gap between the promises made and the expectations are. And this is a source of many of the difficulties in both countries but there are two great difference. First India has had and may still have it for harder time than the United States to cope with her domestic problems which I themes to me in comparison makes ours look rather puny. Secondly earliest simply does not have the resources and she wouldn't have even if our economic machine was run officially. And believe me it is not evil or those circumstances she would not have the material resources

to meet the growing demand. On the other hand our problem is certainly not a shark and a good rut and perhaps this is from one man's perspective. But from my standpoint it's really a misuse on our part of abundant now to point out too great a contrast between the needs and resources of the two countries. First in India they're trying to educate approximately 70 million young people and for more in the age group to go to school who are not in school. They're trying to educate around 70 million young people on a budget. Certainly over one billion dollars a year whereas with my fifth district we have about 50 million in educational institutions of all types. And we're spending about 45 billion dollars a year and many of us that American

education is rather will under finance. How would you like an elementary teacher say thirteen dollars a month. India's military expenditures are about 70 and a lower are to put it another way. The United States is well over 50 percent on the growth and national product. If you start comparing now as background for my discussion today I'm going to devote my attention mainly to the fourth Indian general election as a background for this. I want to first briefly characterize the Indian situation over a period of some 30 years and I've had at least four or four opportunities to observe the situation. First there was the period of the 30s when Gandhi brought the great

masses of the Indian people into the independence movement where the Congress was particularly prominent in opposing the primary and independents were twofold first to satisfy the need for self-respect among the Indian people which had been denied by British through and secondly to eliminate the grinding poverty and social evils which persisted under that rule. Whatever may have been the benefits of British Raj and you can argue it ad infinitum both your pet deny that 99 percent of Indian people were no better off economically and then they have been worse off after 200 years of British domination. Indian nationalists believe that a major source of their difficulty was that they had been exploited by the British and that only when Indians ruled themselves

good they solve these problems. The International Congress and their leaders breaking under new rule gave a good deal of attention to the prospect of economic political and foreign policy even before 1947. But of course their main energies were devoted when they were out of jail and getting rid of the British and that independence became their battle with independent achieves. Although there was deep grief over the tragedy tragedy a partition. The Libyans were inspired by Nehru's promises and speeches particularly those Maine on Independence Day in August one thousand eight hundred and forty seven. And we spoke of the tryst with destiny made on the go and I would quote briefly from this speech really two speeches I quote the service of India moves a service of millions who suffer. It means the ending of poverty and ignorance and disease and inequality of

opportunity. The future beckons us. Where do we go and what shall be our endeavor to bring freedom and opportunity to the common man to the peasants and workers of India to fight and and poverty and disease to build up a prosperous democratic and progressive nation and to create social economic and political institutions which will ensure justice and fullness of life to every man and woman. How substantially have these goals been achieved. Now there was no doubt that the political tasks would be intrusted to the Indian National Congress which had led the country to independence. Gandhi did advise that they did then as a political institution and devote their attention to good works are constructing a work that they call it but I don't think he was taken seriously by any of the leaders they

regarded their presence as indispensable for the accomplishment of the task. After independence they did for the achievement of Independence and the constitution of 1950 was principally the handicap they handed were these leaders and in the first general Indian elections of 1951 and 50 to the Indian National Congress one 74 percent of the seats in the local which is the lower house of the parliament and then one fixed time Sixty eight percent in the legislative assemblies of the various states. Then some twenty eight or twenty but the popular vote which the Congress was far less than this actually only about forty five percent of the popular vote in the election for the center as they call what we would call a federal government. And only some 42 percent in the state election.

And actually the Congress party has never been a majority party over country as a whole and nor has it had a majority in the election in most of the state. Explain why you had these kind of results in terms of those elected did not correspond to the percentage of votes. At PAC upon the staggering problems of course while the first five year long fifty one any of the four five year plan although they are still not been approved so uncertain has been the future and they're still playing it on a year to year. Back in the 1930s for the second time in 54 and 55 in 1954 55 expectations were still high

actually considering the magnitude of the problem in front of them during the previous year it was a miracle that India had survived a democratic and unified Congress still had a larger reservoir of goodwill. And of course two million and more were the first five years ended in 1956 and have been relatively modest to begin with. They were substantially a team whether it was a five year prayer or the good weather is debatable any case the annual growth rate had been around three point four percent. Actually that of the second plan was a little bit better. Around 4 percent. Between 1951 and 1964 the growth rate averaged about thirty point eight percent a year. Now in contrast in the decades before 1950 it had been about 1

percent. But the popular the fifth everything in the sentence report of 1951. Quite a shock. There were at least 20 minutes and more people than almost anyone had predicted there would be in that near the population range just a few hundred thousand chart. Four hundred and forty million people. And today the population is increasing at a rate of approximately two point two percent per year. The birth rate of forking per thousand. The death rate is about 20 both out and with approximately two and a half times the American population. The gross national product is perhaps hard to measure. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 billion dollars about one twentieth. Now I do not know

whether Chester bold optimism as expressed by a speaker is well-founded or not. I have heard Jack is a wonderful guy to take a group of Americans who become very depressed in India and he get to speak to them he is able to discern a silver lining behind the darkness. He may be right but on the other hand it is not at all certain that they will be able to cope with this problem. Birth control the population increase to reduce the birth rate down to 25. The death rate will certainly fall below 20 and considering I think it's most likely that far another 5 to 10 years that the birth rate or death rate in India will fall more rapidly than

birth rate and that the population is a lot more than 12 million a year for the next 10 or 15 years. Bethany talk about the population explosion. But I think if you look at the statistics in nearly all of these countries. You'll conclude that the population explosion there's been some small firecrackers in the past. The population explosion is in the future and in the past only Japan or no these countries are within a relatively short time unable to control the population but the situation in Japan is so different from that in India and most of these countries and I'm not sure that what happened there will be possible in any of these other countries. I will though they do have in this new Manchanda who took over as Minister of Health and Family Planning kind of selling used the shock technique technique like HUTCHENS teaching and certainly has a lot more on the

ball than Mr. Feal a NYer woman who was his predecessor who didn't seem to have either interest or energy to deal with family but the staff heard it in one and I'm not sure that they're maybe pretty good at family planning and kept his own down to tomb. Although I've often wondered I shouldn't say this on the matter of raising the family hadn't quite success. In 900 to 60 to 63 I return to Indy I fancy a strong and growing feeling that not well. Well it wasn't well before but there was an increasing feeling that it was not well not only the hunger for power but also Nehru himself who had always been far more popular than his party was no longer good at the things were said about him in the paper then which papers which would not have been before the Chinese attack in 1962 October of that year was

a greater blow to rulers private health or theme. Then it was it seemed to me a threat to her character or so-called nonaligned whatever it was under attack and military preparation and strategy were shown to be inadequate. And despite Kristen mannerless forced out as defense minister some of you may have read I'm not sure. One of the place your book published in India prior to the election that may not have been just an accident a book called The Untold Story by call general call who had been put in charge of a nonexistent regiment to repel the Chinese and the story about Nehru and min. Christa Manan and some of the generals. Well it's not a very nice reading. They were going to profit persecuting him or prosecuting me was persecuted far revealing on certain military thinkers but they never did and I'm sure the fellow was terribly testicle a lot of things he said have not been

refuted. Well the Indian military build up that followed the Chinese attack to which the United States contributed most 80 million dollars and the Indians often point out that papa was in the neighborhood at least a billion and a half dollars was rather puny. But anyway India's defense costs were almost doubled this increased the drain on her economy and practically different depleted her already meager foreign exchange. This was in 65 or 62. Never left the were were good. And in 1954 thanks to the production of 88 million for the next two years of drought food production grade food grade food production fell into them. To them there's no question but what we shipped to India

enabled many many people to live. Whether it was would have done. And now in 19 but the next two years following 64 years of drought in 1965 rainfall was horribly low normal in all of India. And while the following year in 66 it was overall a little better. Still in wide areas of India particularly in the north central section and especially in this here the state of Bihar back here in Eastern Eastern you Pete but also certain sectors of Madhya Pradesh. It was not any better and income in this case is worse than it had been the previous year. Last November I went out flew down to this area where I went up to here and north by car down through the second which was the worst of the drought stricken section. Remember talking to one chap there with Ed that he had lived there all these life and he was

sure that was the worst drought they have had in a period of at least fifty two years with credit to the scene of the riots which they had planted mainly on the monsoon the rainfall is normally around 56 inches in that area had been 15 inches that year. The rights that come up perhaps that high dried up people were out of the little knife cutting and putting a little bundle in feed the livestock might as well get that out of it it was no good for food. So this was the situation last year we were out of course the 20 years or 20 days more than 20 years of Cold War but 20 days of fighting a war with Pakistan in 1965 and the temporary cessation of American economic aid added to an already difficult situation. The deficit had been had been engaging in a large scale in the third year for a third five

year plan particularly the military situation and deficit financing contributed to an already in to already inflationary pressure in the in the in the 1954 to do one thing that prices rose about 25 percent of the raw material heavy taxation and government control and the term the license permit Raj became a favorite slogan particularly among the right of parties to castigate the government coupled with widespread in the thinking of management almost Indian good international. A month before we arrived on the scene near the first of May in the first of June the rupee was evaluated from four time four point seven to the dollar to seven point five to the dollar. It still will reprise take a hundred I don't know if you're doing it because you might get put in

jail and that was always to deter factor 1 in my case include in addition to of course my general high standard of morality. But I must admit that I also thought in jail but you can fill the hundred dollar bill go down and you can buy at the rate of about 11 for this in the Delhi or Calcutta. Any other place where this value will lead to very widespread criticism of the government may be trailing with all they have is that they were even thinking about the valuation. Now of course to the extent that this particular criticism was because you just don't advertise such a thing and secondly it would read very vigorously criticized because. It was supposed to be and I have no doubt that there's a great deal of truth to it.

The resolve of World Bank and particularly the United States and therefore hence a blow to Indian pride and independence and decrease the value of Indian exports him for four points that were worth a good look at crude as they earn $1 in foreign exchange only. But along with the valuation and prospects of further foreign assistance imports were controlled on a wide variety of commodities deemed essential to production. The immediate purpose of devaluation of course was to decrease imports and to stimulate exports if eventually it would also reduce widespread profiteering from the sale of import permits and make black market operations and profit. But now more than a year after devaluing it seems to have had very few positive. Ask results in

any of these respects industrial production did not respond to the economic stimulus. The value of exports has not increased. And prices in general over the past year have increased more than 16 percent and food prices have soared. Undoubtedly a few of the ruthless and they are already well-to-do have profit. The shops in the large urban centers are still well and seem to do it with the better restaurants and nightclubs are very good and drinks to those who are able to foot the bill. And if you've got the rupees you can buy almost anything and under anything in Calcutta but of material things in Calcutta Bombay and in New Delhi and except in the drought those with the land have not especially suffered and they may have benefit but most every hundred million people and Lao in the cities and only as you say only 20 percent Indians are urban that still

a hundred million people. Most of these people in urban areas have felt the pinch of higher call Lucrece taxes and relatively low income.