Paul Simon Iowa Primary Campaign 2 of 2

A. So you don't. Want to go.

Well there you go. It's like well OK they're like OK you're right. You know.

Yeah. You know. Again I want everyone to know one today. You climbed to 3 4 5 0 5 6 7 8. What time did you start today. I always wonder if I left the park there about 9 o'clock this morning so it was much later than usual or because we had after the debate we had there were a series of exceptions where the stop light was what was in the TV interviews we had to do was I. Wanted to finally get to bed. Yeah. Oh I guess about 1 o'clock 1:15 something like that with nothing but an average night. But no I usually call it and so I get some some some days it gets worse and some days a lot worse than that. Just already.

OK yeah let's begin with you made that. And the irony here is that they may help out horses on Vice President. I really think I think that's it. I think it's a striking irony David. OK let's talk about the Democrats Robin. Yes and now to the Democrats this is our Congressman Richard Gephardt who placed first in Iowa reacted in a rally in New Hampshire. He says he is clearly the underdog there but intends to stick with a campaign theme that worked for him in Iowa. Wow. Wow. Wow. Ladies and gentlemen yesterday the Democrats of Iowa delivered it on a stackable message that this isn't just an election it's a fight for America. And I've come here to New Hampshire to say to you that it's your fight. So. Was.

This will be a long struggle the forces of the other side are harmful and will not yield easily. But we have the people. And in this election you're will continue to be the most powerful voice in this land. I. Some people I think I hear a New Hampshire and it state and it matters to the people who are counting on us. Stand and speak for them.

Was. This is individual. It is. That time. Oh. It was. That. This campaign at the convention in November and that was that it was up this afternoon I talked with the second place finisher Senator Paul Simon also in New Hampshire.

And I asked him how he wants the Iowa results to be perceived. Well about two weeks ago or so people are saying Paul Simon doesn't have a chance. The reality is we did better than I think any of the polls show. And I think it is an indication that the basic message we have to have a government that cares that defends the less fortunate tries to build a safer world. That message is catching on. It is is it the message that is the important thing or is it the man who is the important thing at the moment. Well I think the message is the fundamental thing I would add the man is important also to the extent that there is consistency. I think people want to know that this is not just an election year conversion or a 30 second commercial that you've suddenly developed but that there really is a pattern of consistency they ought to feel comfortable that what you say you mean. And I think my record is very clear on that.

Are you implying that some of your rivals have not been consistent. Well all of us have been somewhat inconsistent. There is no monopoly on consistency. But there is no question that Dick Gephardt has made some very substantial shifts in policy over the years. I heard you say earlier today that now you have a real shot at the nomination you feel but you also said that your hope is to come in second in New Hampshire if you have or are to have a real shot at the nomination Don't you have to win somewhere. Oh yes absolutely. But I think what will is likely to happen after New Hampshire is that three of us will emerge with approximately the same number of delegates and then that shifts the battle to Minnesota to South Dakota to Maine to Wyoming the pre Super Tuesday states. And you would expect to win in one of those you mean. Or ST I think. I think that I would have to win in one of those are

run very very strong in one of those That's correct. Now that's assuming that you beat Gephardt in New Hampshire next week is that right. Well I can't say beat because we again we might come within let's just say in theory a hundred votes of each other. I think we both emerge strong but I don't think that's likely to happen. You have been leading him substantially in the polls in New Hampshire coming second or around right around second with Gary Hart in a recent poll. Suppose Mr. Gephardt has momentum from Iowa should cause him to beat you in New Hampshire would that be the end of it for you. That would not be the end of it. But I hope that will not happen. There's no question it would hurt. But what you describe is accurate. We have been ahead in the polls ahead of Dick Gephardt up to this point. But there is no question that all the publicity surrounding the Iowa primary does give him a boost and I would anticipate that the next polls taken in New Hampshire will show him

someone added me. I don't think that's what's going to happen on next Tuesday. Conversely would Governor Dukakis is third place in Iowa cause some weakening of his position in your Hampshire do you expect. Well it did not strengthen him but he ran strong enough so that I think he is still a very formidable opponent. Do you think he's unassailable in New Hampshire now. Well I wouldn't say anyone's unassailable that you regard Dick Gephardt as the man to beat now in this coming week is that correct. I think the contest immediately is between Dick Gephardt and myself. Obviously I'm not opposed to anyone changing their mind voting for me instead of Mike Dukakis or Senator Simon thank you very much for joining us. Thank you Robin. Served in the Democratic standings and I was messages it's Governor Michael Dukakis. These were his comments last night. We'll be in Manchester.

Just to get a reply. I. Don't. Want. To. Thank you all. And now back to our analysts Mark Shields David Gergen Cokie Roberts and Roger Mudd Roger Mudd we heard Gephardt say a moment ago the message from Iowa was unmistakable was it unmistakable or was it a mistake about it. Well I don't know about a mistake about I'm not sure I know what the message was from Iowa except that that there's really I don't think a clear winner and no message that carries forth it seems to me that that Gephardt did not score a walk away yesterday. He goes in there with some amount of loosening of the money and I think he's he's got some momentum going. It seems to me I hate to disagree with Senator Simon it seems to me that Paul Simon was was the major loser of the three yesterday in Iowa. He really should have won out here

he was from Illinois and has worked over this state with some some energy at. But when you take a look at him in New Hampshire. I don't think he's going to make it and without making it to New Hampshire he has nothing to look forward to in in the south after that so I it seems to me he's going to get squeezed next week in New Hampshire. Cokie what was the message sent for the Democrats from Iowa. It's a muddled message there's no question about that. You have this this grouping at the top. And and Dick Gephardt did arouse some passion at the end. We had been missing that up until then and and obviously he's upset his opponent Senator Simon just talked about inconsistency. We're hearing from Simon's people that we can expect a very nasty campaign is probably too strong a word but what they would call a frank campaign talking about parts flip flops on the issues and we're hearing from gab pards people that we're going to hear about Simon voting

with President Reagan on a variety of issues so that I think we're in for a rough week in terms of. They are how the campaign is going to go in New Hampshire Michael Dukakis is the person who seems remarkably calm coming out of Iowa and very sort of serene. And I think that he seems to have a game plan where I will work just fine for him coming in the way he did his game plan Robin is to when he's the only one. Dukakis is the only one who is willing to say I must win in New Hampshire or my campaign is over. Coming back to him in a moment. Mark Shields are the Democrats saying in your in and out of Iowa we really aren't very excited about any of these guys yet or are they saying we're beginning to be excited about say Gephardt. Well I think they get tired candidacy was an intriguing one. Not because of the persona of Dick Gephardt and they know it is not the most exciting candidate certainly in the history of American politics I think last night to celebrate he probably went out and

painted the town Baiji I mean he is not exactly a dramatic riveting figure but his message was that his message did engage the voters of Iowa. And that Cokie was a little strong and saying inconsistency is if I took down my notes probably Paul Simon said substantial shifts in policy over the years that's not really a Pier Six brawl that we're talking about New Hampshire he's accused Dick Gephardt of substantial shifts in policy over the years so someone's got to turn up the thermostat in a hurry but I think I get part one and that's going to help him in New Hampshire if the caucus does lose there he's gone. Did Gephardt clearly win. David Gergen remodelled message Well I think that the that the race finished up in a somewhat muddled way but I certainly think the day that Gephardt was the one person who did have a message and I think there's something that's there's a parallel between the Gephardt campaign and the Robertson campaign and both of them are tapping into some real anxieties out there in the country and that are a case of Robertson about moral issues in the case of Gephardt something new that's out

there and that is a loss of our economic independence and loss of our economic security and I think those issues are going to come front and center now in this campaign as other candidates recognize just how much of a leap after all two months ago Dick Gephardt was 6 percent and he he had this bounce when he found his voice when he found his message and his candidacy really revived and I think that's the message you know we're let's look at the very end. Let's look at the times go ahead for him David. He is still only at least two words in the latest polls I've seen from New Hampshire. Why does that matter. You can beat a caucus but both Simon and Gephardt now have a money problem that the Congress has a juggernaut financially compared to the other two. Both of those signing a Gephardt need to be able to go out and collect some money. One of those two is going to come out of New Hampshire fairly in fairly decent shape and if Gephardt can beat Sonnen he'll be the guy. It would then be a Dukakis Gephardt race going into the South they have to contend with Al Gore at that point of course

but they possibly could narrow the race down the two men if if Gephardt beats I mean that's his real objective just designed and has to be Gephardt in order to remain viable I think Roger Mudd is absolutely on target that that sign is in a squeeze situation right now is a tough one. Roger on get parts prospects in New Hampshire. Well that's what David said is accurate. I think that he he's won in Iowa. And for him to drop off the pace in New Hampshire means that his message of fit Iowa no where else so he's got to finish second at a minimum. You know what he's talking about is is changing the message a little bit we heard from him for the first time today the word computers. He's been talking about you know if American cars so than Korea the cost $48000 of whatever the Hyundai sold here for what they sell there and now he's also talking about computers which are of course of great interest to the people who live in New Hampshire and work in high technology. So what he's trying to do

already is sort of tone that message more too. We need to be able to compete in foreign markets much more than we need to be keep keeping them out of here. America should be shaping its own destiny. He's hoping this will appeal to the people who you know have as a road sign as you come into their state Live Free or Die. Gephardt in New Hampshire once you got to do. Well I think obviously he has to run ahead of Paul Simon I think he's got a shot at winning New Hampshire quite frankly I mean he was at 7 percent in a poll taken before Iowa considerably before Iowa on the day of the Iowa caucuses in 1984 when Gary Hart Pence was at 9 percent in New Hampshire and. Was roaring off into the low 40s the last time I saw eight days later in 1984 so he could catch. And let's remember one thing about the New Hampshire voters. They have shown no particular geographical affinity for regional candidates and they never remember a president Edward Kennedy who was beaten there by a Georgian

named Jimmy Carter in 1980 and President Edmund Muskie who was held under 50 percent by George McGovern. Let's go around on that. David Gergen is is Dukakis now vulnerable in New Hampshire because of his third place finish I mean he's been running 40 percent 35 percent in the polls in Europe. I'm skeptical that he's vulnerable that he has 80 percent favorable of the writings and I'm sure among Democrats and those ratings have been going up in the last two weeks. I think he's going to be very tough to beat there. Anybody disagree with that. Well I I would I would say I would say Robin that that the fact that he finished a weak third in Iowa he was bunched but still that was not what he had hoped would raise the question of whether indeed he is a national candidate. So I don't think he would lose you know Simon made the point well it won't help him. In New Hampshire. Not now. I would I would just say that I think Dukakis is vulnerable you know and you agree that kooky.

I think it's hard the last poll that I've seen which was the one that was come out over the weekend ABC Washington Post poll showed him at 47 percent with Simon and Gephardt tied at 13 percent but most significantly it showed that his backers said that they very strongly supported him. I think that what he's trying to do is is keep New Hampshire he's spending a fortune and then show that he's not a regional candidate by picking up some some odd spots in the south. He's got to carry he's got a strategy of finishing third over second in Iowa finishing first and then actually coming back and finish a place in second or third in the south to stay alive and get into the industrial states where he thinks again he'll be stronger so he's using but he's in pretty decent shape tonight. OK let's talk for a moment about the other Democratic candidates. How do you think Jesse Jackson did and what does it mean as he moves on to the end of the South. Mark Shields Well Jesse James.