Farm Day

Well. I. Part. Made possible in part by a grant from the farm credit system the nation's own banks and associations that provide credit and related services to American agriculture. With a new symbol of progress. Good morning and welcome to a new farm day I'm Charlotte Nichols and I'm Tom Armbruster we're glad you could join us this morning. Today we'll hear what farmers should look for in the short term futures market. And we'll have a report that examines some ways to survive 986 agriculture. But first let's check this morning's news. Half of the farmer's home administration's 28 billion dollar loan portfolio is in danger of default. That's according to a General Accounting Office report depicting a financial crisis at farmer's

home that is worse than most experts and lawmakers had suspected. The study using figures compiled through June of last year shows that almost 37000 borrowers have not paid anything on their loans for three or more years. It also says that during the first six months of last year the agency made seven hundred sixty three million dollars in new loans to borrowers who are technically insolvent. Details of the dairy herd buyout program have now been announced. The Agriculture Department says the bidding period for the plan will begin next week on February the 10th. And on March 7th. Interested producers must submit bids for five year contracts that commit them to cease production for that time. Other restrictions for program participants include having any interest in dairy cattle or milk production requiring any milk production facilities that become available due to the dairy terminations program and allowing the use of any production facility for milk production. Program rules do allow producers to sell equipment with no restrictions. More information can be

obtained at your county agricultural stabilization and Conservation Service Office. The 1986 farm here will make or break many farmers across the country. That's true in Georgia where crop plans being made now could be the last for some growers if they don't proceed with caution in the first of a two part series Joe course and lots of different ways farmers can survive this upcoming production year. Farmers have produced and produced and produce so much that market prices have fallen often below the cost of growing it. Extension Service marketing specialist don't see a rebound of market prices this year but Georgia farmers could get some relief. It appears that participate in most of the government programs will give them a price. Which will allow them to continue in businesses. It won't be prices that will make them rich by any means. Many farmers will settle for generating enough cash flow to pay their bills and to help pay overdue loans. The farm economist recommends participating in upcoming corn

wheat. Cotton. Peanut. And tobacco programs peanut farmers got an increase in their poundage quota at a time when they need it most. USDA up the poundage by 23 percent. And rumors from Washington indicate that the quota price guarantee to farmers will go up slightly. One caution here on peanuts is to please don't let. Additional contract prices take away the profit from the cost of peanuts that happened frequently last year. Farmers often sold their additional peanuts at below the cost of production. And the next report farmers with severe debt problems get some advice that could help save their crops. Joe Courson reporting and we'll have that report for you tomorrow. Thank you. The Common Market says the new farm bill will force its member countries to increase we exports. European economic community agriculture commissioner Franz Andersen on Friday said that a boost in common market with shipments abroad is the only way for the ECB to

retain its market share. Anderson added that the decline in the US dollars value will make the extra exports more expensive. And he told Common Market representatives that unity among governments is needed to deplete the markets glut of grain stocks. USDA undersecretary Daniel M. stud says the new generic payment in-kind certificates will benefit alert farmers. The certificates which are offered as 25 percent of farmers advance deficiency payment are redeemable for any government owned commodity listed in its crop catalogue and start says the plan will help some farmers especially those who recognise shifts in market demand from one commodity to another. He adds that the certificates will probably be used by many farmers as a speculative vehicle that will allow the commodity to be sold on the open market for the best price and studs also stresses the USDA cautions in regards to the program which he says has the potential to be manipulative. We all know that sometimes the futures market and its contract prices seems to be suspended and mobile. Many times despite the presence of trends that we think should have some sort of

impact projecting movement can be difficult and confusing and that's why I spoke recently with commodity analyst Keith Campbell. Kate good morning let's talk a little bit this week about where people should be in the markets this coming week and some short term projections How about with stuff we start off with corn based on the march contract which as of Thursday is closed meaning yesterday's close to close to 240 for the short term trend is down and we have indicated support it around 2:30 to resistance at about 250 to so there's about a 20 cent range where we would expect corn that might fluctuate but we've got basically a down trend. So our objective would be around 230 to that is the market might reach down into its support level in the next few days. What would be your general overall advice for people trying to place themselves this this coming week where should they be. Well if you're if you're if you're inclined to make some sales you're in a downtrend right now. You might want to make it before the market gets any softer. But if you can hold on for two three weeks you know

almost anything can happen. Really the gray markets have been pretty much you know in a relatively stable pattern for the last month or two. Are you finding that with soybeans as well are already in the south. Well similarly soybeans though are instead of being in a downturn essentially we view the trend in soybeans right now as basically sideways supported about 5 24 resistance at about 5:50 6 so there's about a 30 cent range that we expect soybeans to fluctuate in current price it's about 540 on the march contract. So again you've got a market that's kind of in a sideways pattern really not going anywhere at the moment so if you if you're inclined to sell and you get some rallies up towards the resistance at 550 to 56 that might be a place where you want to make some sales if you get a drop down to the 5 35 25 area that might be a spot where you would consider either holding on or if in fact if you need to purchase feed you might be one of them wanting to purchase and feed there. Okay let's take a look at the livestock markets have the hogs where they coming out where would you want to be this coming. Okay the February hogs are in a shallow uptrend. The preist price

closed 46 10 on Thursday supports about 44 cents and resistance at about forty eight. As I mentioned though we're talking a very shallow uptrend actually the major major trend in hogs has been down. But the most if you look to the short term we've been in the short term upturn for a couple of weeks so I'd say your objective in that area is about 48 cents. Anything that's been influencing that that short were trend upward if within a major trend downward what's what's kind of bringing it up at this point being that being a pure technician like I won't comment from a fundamental standpoint but the market simply was a little oversold probably And we're just getting a little technical correction. Okay so let's take a look at catalysts roughly here where where are we coming out this coming week okay that well the February cattle close to 58 in quarter. The trend in cattle is basically down along again with the long term trend in hogs and meats are both on the down side supports at about 57 20 resistance at about 61 cents in a downtrend we're looking for another cent

erosion of 57 20 so right now we're actually in a fairly strong support area. For cattle and the likelihood a very very short term price erosion is not real great. OK so just to wrap it up here pretty much not much fluctuation happening in any thing right now you know. Again the agricultural markets have been fairly stable absent you know specific news if we talked about before for example interest rates inflate the inflation rate on the dollar and then of course major crop prospects which are world wide. OK for consideration we will pick up some of those points especially the value of the dollar next movie. Thanks for being with us. Thanks Sean. An unexpected drop in prices has pushed the government's farm price index down nearly nine points below a year ago the last quarter of 1985 saw the index which measures prices farmers receive for raw products post solid gains but January's drop of eight point eight percent virtually wipes out any headway made in 1995. Preliminary Agriculture Department statistics indicate that lower prices for lettuce cattle turkeys oranges and wheat are mostly

to blame for the January decline. Conversely the index was studied somewhat by higher prices received by growers for sweet corn soybeans and corn. Many farmers are finding their business is in a slump lately. Some have compared the industry's current state to that of Depression era agriculture growers in Texas who remember farming in the 1930s may also be experiencing another sort of deja vu. The reactivation of an organization whose job it is once more to help rehabilitate farms and ranches. Mark Mazower has more in this report. An old Depression era corporation is taking a new direction with the goal of helping poor rural Texans. The board's called Texas rural communities incorporated. For years it's only made student loans but now under the guidance of the Texas Department of Agriculture will soon begin using its more than five million dollars in assets to fund projects that will help distressed minority and poor farmers who live in the small towns of Texas. One of the board's new members is a state representative from the Rio Grande

Valley wanting a home. But I would like to see some of the ideas come from the rural communities. Those are the people that are being impacted. Those who people are being affected. And I think that. They are more knowledgeable as to the type of ideas and what type of projects they would like to see funded. And with money and government as tight as it is the board has its work cut out I think. We can play a very crucial role. At a time when we are experiencing cutbacks. In the number of grants. From a federal government used to fund my role providing the necessary funds. To try out ideas that I don't want. Texas rural communities was created during the 1930s to provide assistance to financially strapped rural families with farm prices calling as they are today. It's needed now more than ever before. From Austin I might miss a recording.

Let's hope that continues to be a success out there. We want to remind you to get out that pencil and paper now and answer our latest at issue question if you haven't already. We're getting lots of mail on this one but we know there are still some of you who haven't voiced your opinion. The question is is collective bargaining a realistic strategy for U.S. farmers. Just a minute and let us know your feelings. You can send your answers to us here at farm de Maryland Public Television Owings Mills Maryland 2 1 1 1 7. Again that's Farm Day Maryland Public Television Owings Mills Maryland 2 1 1 1 7. And don't forget that we sent a farm day camp like this one to viewers whose letters we read on the air so write this place. And this morning we'd also like to send out a big farm day hello to all the folks attending the 40th annual convention of the National Association of conservation districts. That's being held in Nashville Tennessee through this Thursday and we hope your workshops and talks go well and a farm today. Hello to everyone out in Columbus Ohio watching you in Columbus channel 34 we have a lot of viewers out there.

We should also remind you that when you write in about the collective bargaining that is your question to let us know your opinion on Richard Lang being a part of the new secretary of agriculture we're interested in that as well. And your names of farms across the country different names that we've been looking for some interesting ones we got one of your farm right get the name of that person I think my favorite so far is cost a lot of them. I think that's about the best and the best. On another farm they had. That's right. Please if you have and if you have a fine or something with the name of your farm send a picture of it and we'll share it with other folks around the country. But that's all for the today's program thanks for being with us. Again tomorrow with the latest news and prices. Until then have a good. And related services to American agriculture. Farm Day is a production of Maryland Public Television. Would you still be responsible.

If you have accomplished all you've planned for yourself. A philosopher has written then you have not planned enough. True we need ambition. We have aims desires and goals. Ambition keeps the world moving but it makes sense to take stock occasionally to see if we are paying too high a price. A very successful businessman admits that it cost far too much to reach his position as personal life shop to share items you see as little of his family instead of happiness. He has oldsters rather than contentment he suffers stress high blood pressure. What is the point in the striving for something if attaining it wrecks everything worthwhile along the way. If your goal is too high adjust it. If your ambition leads you to heights marred by emptiness and frustration turn it

to a lower wavelength. There is nothing remember there is nothing illegal. I don't know about being sensible.