Iowa Press; 1517; Bonnie Campbell and Mike Mahaffey

Hey this is I when pressed for show. 15:18 recorded January 31. A. A. Major funding for this program was provided by friends of Iowa Public Television. In debate after debate after debate the contenders have had their voices heard. Soon Iowa caucus goers will make their voices heard. A look at the process and the predictions tonight. I will press. This is the Sunday January 30 first edition of Iowa press. Here is Dean bore.

Good evening. The glare of the national political spotlight will be cranked up another couple of notches here in Iowa in the next few days. Caucus 88 now in its final week in the months of intense campaigning debating pulling in crafting a score sheet for each of the candidates. If you can believe it will testify all the more. A week from tomorrow night up to a quarter of a million Iowans will be involved in the very first step down the long road of the candidate selection process and the nation will be watching Iowa. We've come to learn that Iowans don't take this responsibility likely. The issues have been defined and debated by candidates and caucus goers alike and soon the process will produce results that some will say were predictable all along. Now whether the results are in fact predictable and whether either party will produce a true front runner in all of this is the focus of our program tonight. And we've asked two political veterans to assist us with those answers Montezuma attorney Mike McAfee is chair of the Republican Party of Iowa. Mr. McAfee is held this current position since January of 87 just a year now. And

as I was chair he sits on the Republican National Committee and similarly Des Moines Attorney Bonnie Campbell chairs the Iowa Democratic Party. She's been in her person since January of 87. And as I would chair she sits on the Democratic National Committee joining us tonight her debut eps and political reporter of The Des Moines Register and Mike Glover of the Associated Press. Mr. Mahaffey I'd like to open our discussion CNN by getting your handicap on the Republican race. Give us a rundown on how the race looks looks to you. Well I would go with the conventional political wisdom David. I would say right now that to Bob Dole is strong in this state. He appears from most polls to still be in the lead. George Bush running second I think one of the interesting factors involved is what happens after that or is there anybody that could move up to first or second place in that regard I think Pat Robertson still has to be considered a wild card in the political race. Another story within the story is Peter Pan and Jack Kemp both of them very much want to finish ahead of the other one here in Iowa as they go into New Hampshire and Al Haig. I don't think will

be that much of a factor here because he has chosen not to be. Let me follow up on the evangelical wild card. Do you see much evidence out there of evangelical organizing in the state for Pat Robertson. What's your sense of how how will that movement be on caucus night. It is hard to say I've talked to some people recently that have indicated that there has been a surge of of some interest and there have been some counties that we've gotten reports from where there's been quite a few. New registrations one of the factors that is involved that is interesting is it's just it's just hard to see how many Robertson supporters there is in the state of Iowa. But I do know this that those that are there are very committed to their candidate and that's one of the things that makes it interesting. If we go back to the old Bush thing for a minute you said that the old conventional wisdom that they had in most polls is he unbeatable now unless there's a major misstep is he going to be George Bush in the state. I don't think I'd bet the farm on that Mike. Wouldn't that the house throughout I'm not sure I'm not sure I'd bet anything I think that Bob Dole is going to do well in the state of

Iowa but I don't think I don't think that I I'm not prepared to say that George Bush doesn't have a chance to win in this state. There are still some variables involved that we are not going to have answer to February 8. One of which is we do organization I think they put together a good organization but they have not been tested yet. They're going to be tested February 8. That's one of the questions that has to be answered but what's anybody been tested. Well when you consider in the Republican primary in the in the Republican caucus excuse me you have the situation where Bush was here in 1900. A lot of his people are veterans from that campaign. It's pretty much the same kind of caucus procedures it was that year so that's why I say that's one of the variables we have to take in consideration the Bush organization a little flabby. I mean it's been seven years since they've had to produce a lot of their critics say there but they're a closed club of people won't let anybody else in. Have they really been tested yet. They haven't been tested for a while. And we'll find out whether that criticism is justified or not. There's Campbell I don't leave you out of that. Free here tonight give us your assessment of the Democratic race.

I'm inclined to agree with the poll that was taken a couple weeks ago. I think it probably really is a very intense competition among Congressman Gephardt. Governor Dukakis Simon. Within striking distance However you clearly have Bruce Babbitt and Jesse Jackson they are both a little more difficult to assess. And both having gone somewhat outside the traditional Democratic ranks to organize. And I think probably Gore and Hart are not in the picture in any big way at all here in Iowa. We're at the end of the campaign. You've got a big three up there that are afraid to talk about who's talking right now and who's not. Depart appears to be hot. I'm hearing from the campaigns that he is pulling out ahead a little bit. Where he seems to have momentum right now when it's very very important. Does it still have a week. Is it real momentum or is he just getting back what he had earlier in the race and one point he was at 26

percent the polls he dropped down to six. Now he's coming back is that real or is he just getting back what he already had at one time. I think that the latter is correct. He's getting back what he had flattened out for a while I'm not sure why that was. But his media is quite good. He's had not only a media blitz but a blitz of people coming through and it does all work to his advantage. What does happen to Gary Hart. He started out at 60 percent the race that he got out of the race he came back and he was a front runner for a while and now everyone. You just said he's falling apart. Why do you think that is. I think it's the cumulative effect of everything that's happened. First of all when he reentered there was almost a concussion effect in terms of the media for five straight days just Gary Hart Gary Hart Gary Hart and the polls were reflecting that incredibly high name identification. The farther away from that concussion that you get the less support he seems to have and

wasn't supported in the first place. It was name recognition. If we could talk about a concussion like both of you to address this issue i could they would newspaper this morning endorsed Paul Simon and endorsed Bob Dole. That mean anything to Iowa activists Democrats Republicans. Funny I think it has somewhat of an effect. Many activists of course make up their minds independently. There are some who look to the Des Moines Register for guidance. For those people that could be a determining factor but I don't think the Register's indorsement is the pivotal sort of thing I don't think anybody will win or lose. For Paul Simon it's going to be an important psychological boost to him I think. Mr. Matthew I would agree with that assessment I don't think it's going to be pivotal in the Republican race either. But people will take that into consideration. I read the newspaper and will still make up their mind based on a lot of other factors.

You say the same thing about the endorsements that have come from Iowa congressional leaders and other political leaders here in oil for the various candidates. How much influence that has does that have more or less than say the Des Moines Register's feeling today. What do you think. Scandal I think endorsements in a campaign serve to legitimize candidates. I really don't think they persuade early. If you were going to Congressman Gephardt has he really started that. We're almost at the top to get a lot of those opinion leaders. And then when you organize that way early on that's very helpful. But to bring in John Culver now for example is helpful but not pivotal to bringing a Berkeley BiDil six months ago who works night and day. That's a different story. But it depends on what goes with the endorsement. Just ahead what would you say on that especially Chuck Grassley for do well I think that the significance of Chuck Grassley being for Bob Dole and being for him in a in a really pivotal

way I mean being out here with him writing direct mail for him campaigning with him and saying that this is the first time in 27 years of political life that I have done this is going to be more significant than the endorsed by The Des Moines Register. Is there a downside to all these endorsements both the ones from candidates and the ones from newspapers such as mine. I remember asking Chuck Grassley in 1986 I said Senator what does it mean that my newspaper has indorsed and he says well I don't think it will cost me too many votes. Mr Mahaffey is there a downside to these endorsements. Well in all the fairness to your newspaper David I think in the Republican race. I'm not sure there's that many Republicans that looked at the Des Moines Register for advice. And having said that I don't really think it's going to be a negative for Bob Dole but I just don't think it's going to be something that's there when it comes out it's going to be basically a wash. There's something else I'd like the two of you to address you've both predicted that turnout in your respective party of about one hundred twenty five thousand which would be a record. Who gets helped and who gets hurt.

If you have big turnouts and who gets help and who gets hurt if we get a blizzard a week from Monday and we have half that type of turnout mr happy with that. I have been saying for the last year that the thing about the ROBERTSON people we have to keep in mind is that if it's 20 below zero wind chill factor rather than 20 above I still think those people are going to be there. In that respect because of the commitment and dedication of those people if we have a blizzard I would have to say that. That would be of some help to somebody like Pat Robertson without those committed people in terms of a larger turnout. I really don't know Mike I'm going to be quite honest with you I've thought about that and it really depends upon you know where those people come from because even if you were talking about one hundred and fifty thousand in each caucus that still wouldn't there would still be less than a third of the registered Republicans in the state less than a third of the registered Democrats so I don't know how to answer that. Is your prediction of record turnout based solely on an expectation you don't have a lot of evangelicals. No it's not. As a matter of fact my prediction is still fairly conservative I've said a hundred to

hundred ten thousand which is what we had in 1900 We've got less Republicans in the state than we did in 1980 we've got a four hundred eighty five thousand Republicans. That kind of turnout would still be 23 percent which would be pretty good I have friends whose opinions I respect that say to be as high as one hundred fifty hundred sixty thousand. I just don't miss cable to do just that. I don't know who a large turnout helps. I think we will have a larger turnout but I think it's going to come from across the board in terms of candidates support. If there's a blizzard who gets hurt. I think probably everybody gets hurt except maybe Bruce Babbitt or Jesse Jackson for some reason. Their supporters are very intense and I think they'll go if they have to take a snowmobile. Let me follow that up. Why talk about Bruce Babbitt and Jesse Jackson both of campaign extensively here they have messages that appeal well and yet they can't seem to break through in the polls. Let's talk about Bruce Babbitt first why is he not taking on.

I think it probably either course I don't know the real answer and you get my theory. It seems to me that being a governor from Arizona has been a handicap for him. We tend to when we elect presidents look to someone who is in Washington governors are often given a disadvantage. Dukakis has to suffer that same disadvantage largely because we look at Massachusetts and we say yes but that's a very large state. The experience of governing that state might be comparable to the executive position. What about Jesse Jackson. Is there racism and probably racism or more likely. What I see is a fear that while we're not racists other people are. And so we have you know the electability question is raised with Reverend Jackson as well. There are many people of course who are not racist and

I think there are very few racists in Iowa. Mike brought up the question of evangelicals and what that would do to turn out I want to ask both of you about notch babies people born from 1917 to 1921 who feel that they have been cheated in the Social Security system. We've seen a great deal of activism on their part. They've endorsed Paul Simon and Jesse Jackson the Democratic Party even endorsed Jack Kemp in the Republican Party. Are they going to swell turnout Miss Campbell. They're going to turn out. No question about that. Are they going to be for a candidate or they're going to turn out in general. Well they're going to turn now and they may well be for the candidates they perceive are on their side. However I know not many of these who are supporting candidates from every camp so hard to know but they'll be there. Yes I'm happy. I think they'll turn out to David and the thing about the notch babies is that they are getting mail and getting calls you know in both parties saying that we are for Simon or Jackson or we are for Jack Kemp. That could that could help those candidates when you consider the bunching up of the some of the candidates on both sides in terms of percentages.

And that may be one of those factors that may help somebody like Jack him. So you've got the unknown of the not yours you know behind Jack Kemp and the unknown of the evangelicals behind Pat Robertson Mr. McAfee who finishes in third place. Yeah. I don't know and I'd like to say one thing to you about the evangelicals. Not all evangelicals are for Pat Robertson and I will poll and other polls that have been done have shown that in the in the Republican Party there is quite a few people that conserve consider themselves to be evangelicals that are for other candidates too so they're not just simply monolithic in their support for Pat Robertson but most of his supporters are even joggles those so that as you know most of the evil I just address it gets one to another issue. Republicans in Michigan are just completing their process flipping delegates at their conventions they've had terribly frank Tish's time up there. There were fears early on that Michigan was going to trap from Iowa particularly the Republican side because it would take attention why did that happen or with Michigan so confusing it just had no impact on you know they've gotten some publicity out of it and all the publicity that I've seen has been bad.

I think that Michigan Republicans with all due respect to my brother and if there were a little too smart by half they concocted a system to begin in August of 1996. And what has happened to their party in the meantime is not something that I would wish on anyone in terms of its significance or impact upon I why I think it be very little effect also that both of you to address this. They had a terrible time. Michigan tore themselves apart the state parties in tatters. How is Iowa managed to keep this really focus all the attention all the infighting without destroying the respective political party structures I assume you both would say it's a positive for his campaign. I think it's number one we've had a little experience doing the parties here both parties are very progressive and I think it was probably an advantage that both Mike and I made a decision to stay out of it. And the candidates I think would tell you that they were treated fairly across the board if you treat people fairly and then they are less inclined to fight with you of the party and frankly fight among each other. I know I have made attempts to

quell the little things when they began to percolate around and I think they appreciate that. In the two party system with a with a broad umbrella in both parties you have to preach and you have to by example live tolerance. And that's one of the things we've had to do in the Republican Party I agree with Bonnie I think both of our parties so far have had a very positive impact upon this process and the impact on us as a party has been positive and we hope that continues. Let's talk about going first. Why was Campbell should I be first. I like what happens in Iowa and I could spend the rest of the time here telling you what I think we should be first. But the real and most significant reasons are at least two. One you can come to Iowa and compete. If you were just a person with an idea and a hope in a dream and you can come here and persuade people that your dream is the right dream you couldn't do that in New

York and you couldn't do it in Texas. Bosses can't deliver Iowa and the media can't persuade Iowans. It's a place where you can really come and organize. And that's the second thing that's terribly important. Some people feel put upon if they have to come to Iowa and organize 99 counties. If you can't organize 99 counties in Iowa and meet with farmers and other people representative of our culture. Why should I be convinced that you can organize a huge bureaucracy known as the US government or that you're capable of negotiating with and dealing with the Soviets or the Chinese. What happens here is a real test of a candidate's whole persona. I get to look you in the eye and say OK you're a good guy I can see it. I get to study your policy position and then quiz you about that and I get to see your organizational talents.

But let me turn the tables for just a second if I could. The people that get to look the candidates in the eye are 97 percent white their world and a nation that's growing increasingly urban. And I don't think anyone would argue that they're representative of the nation as a whole. How do you answer the question why should I why I have such a large role when it's so one representative was meant to be representative of the nation as a whole. It was meant to be representative of the Midwest and it is that. You need to look at the process as an integrated whole. It doesn't begin and end in Iowa. It only begins here and in fact we have crafted a very meticulously balanced process specifically designed to not cut candidates out if they are viable. The viability threshold is imposed by the National Democratic Party. If a candidate is viable he or she will get coming out of Iowa. The proportional number of delegates

allotted by the amount of support he had in caucuses. The media do however count people out. Mr Mahaffey the same sorts of questions why should I'll be first as Mike says Isn't this really an atypical place. Well I think Bonnie has covered some of the best arguments very well I would add a couple of things. First of all we are we are a very politically literate state. I've had many of the journalists from around the nation say that they really enjoy coming to I will because I want to take this responsibility seriously. And secondly when you consider the fact that that while we are more rural than the nation as a whole and we are more white there are a lot of interesting factors involved every year in the political process that that show that I what is representative in some ways let me give an example. My farm clients the people I live with in posh County are just as concerned about trade exports imports. Who is going to be seen across Mikhail Gorbachev as they are farm subsidies because we live in a

state where we understand the importance of the national major national scene to us economically. Let's let's not look at this question as Islands for a minute but as Americans this camel does this process serve the national Democratic Party well does it serve America well I mean you talk about candidates coming out to organize and looking people in the eye. Well since when was any of that ever important for an American president. I mean when was the last time an American president had to have a skillet retail politicking. It seems that they have they ought to have skills at dealing with Congress. What about those questions. Let me suggest to you that what happens here is important by way of looking back at recent history from the Democratic Party's perspective. The process is relatively long. Really it goes from February to November. I'm frankly quite happy. That this process.

Caught if you will for lack of a better word a couple of our candidates who would not have been good nominees apparently some of that is the length of the process and some of that is the scrutiny that occurred early in Iowa. I think that's really important it isn't so much whether President X came out to Iowa and talk to people as much as that is reflective of that person's commitment. If you really want to be president. How the United States is a process that forces you to go and meet with the people of the United States. Such a bad process. They don't just come to Iowa and then fly home. They go to New Hampshire which is reflective of minorities they go to the south and they compete there and they go into the large urban industrial centers I think that's appropriate. There's been a lot of talk about a regional primary that one of the ways that some of this excessive influence that some people feel Iowa has could be minimized and yet preserve the

Midwestern aspect of this is a Midwest regional primary we may be seeing the evolution of that the South Dakota primary Minnesota Michigan. I like both of you to answer this question How do you feel about a regional primary would would each of you in your parties be willing to give up the first in the nation status that Iowa has in favor of an early Midwestern regional primary in 1900 to this game. I don't happen to like the concept at all of the original primary. I frankly don't like primaries very well. I like our caucus system that's very helpful to us in party building. When they were first or not is a separate issue as I'm half a result I think I would speak for most Republicans saying that we would prefer to keep the system the way it is the party believes very important you can do that much better in a caucus system than a primary system Secondly some of the same problems you have with the nationwide primary in terms of every candidate having a chance to have his or her say would be true even in a regional primary because of the logistics and the money and the name identification

and all those factors which work against those candidates that start out low in the polls. Let's get your crystal ball out again. It's 1991 1992 in there. That's what happens I want to be the first Republican test next time around. We'll we're going to do what we can to stay first. The center Committee talked about this last fall because as you know in the Republican primary in the Republican Party we do not have. A system whereby we mandate that a certain state starts first and there's a lot of states are going to be looking at going ahead of us. But we have made a we have made a pledge as a state central committee that we're going to do we have to do today first in 1992 what has to happen for I would say first to somebody have to win in the state I mean if a Pat Robertson finishes very well what does that mean I will never be a first again. I don't think so if Pat Robertson finishes well here he probably going to finish well some other places what has to happen is that the system is run fairly and as smoothly as is possible and that good things come out of and I think that'll happen. We've got just a couple minutes left and I wanted to get a local political question in there too if I could.

The Chuck Chuck Grassley Terry Branstad fight inside the Republican Party fight if he might be too strong a word used but there was Senator Grassley has been concerned that Terry Branstad might not be a strong Republican candidate. In 1992 for reelection Mr. McAfee do you think Terry Branstad is rehabilitating himself is Chuck Grassley going to back down from this talk about running for governor. I don't think when one thousand ninety comes that we're going to have both Chuck Grassley and Terry Branstad running a good show for governor I just don't see that happening. David do you think Terry Branstad is rehabilitating himself in as a strong candidate again. I think that the governor is making some strides in that regard and I think one of the things that could help him a lot would be for Republicans and legislature in 1088 which we're going to work I'd like to bring that issue if you both have been focusing for months if not years on the precinct caucuses that are coming up in a week. Is that taking away from your party's effort to do things like recruit legislative candidates and run elections you're going to have to deal with after the caucuses are over Miss Campbell. You know it's wonderfully beneficial to us when we win some of these legislative seats

by five or 10 or 30 votes. And when you get new people out to a precinct caucus you've got a lot of good names to build from. Wonderfully helpful. It hasn't been our party either because we realize how important is for us to stand the democratic tide at the legislative level I was. I spent one day this last week with a prospective candidate who couple days later said he would run and that was just as important in fact that was the most important thing that happened this week. Caucuses aside Miss Campbell there's a real fear that on caucus night the Democratic results could be muddled. Got a couple different counting systems. Both of them in 1984 had flaws what steps have you taken inside the Democratic Party to ensure that the Democratic Party's count will be a complete one and won't miss half the precincts in Polk County and a third of them. JOHNSON Well first I should begin by saying we will count those of you in the media who understand discrepant numbers if you will to clarify them. Our results are the correct results. We have created we hope failsafe

system for computing our tabulations and gathering the numbers. If we don't have those numbers in by a certain time we will be tracking those precinct committee people to the ends of the earth to get them so be complete it'll be complete when. OK. It will help you. Tell you what's happening. And yours will be about that time too because you have a simpler process don't you. We do have a simpler process. We are going we are going to be working with a new selection service at the same time there will be some precincts where is going to be a lot of people so we'll have to have some patience on caucus night as long as we're talking about time we're out of the fray here. Thank you very much Mike Mahaffey and Bonnie Campbell for being our guest tonight. And I will press in here and I will public television our countdown to caucus 88 continues this week we'd like to pass along this program reminder to you on caucus night our coverage live with Mark Russell begin at 8:30 p.m.. Caucus results

analysis and of course the humorous political insights of Mark Russell. If you're not planning on taking part in the caucus of your choice at night then join us for let's party. We're calling it Monday night and caucus night at 8:30. And next Sunday and I will press a look at the Iowa caucus from the national perspective. I guess we Tom Oliphant of the Boston Globe Susan Feeney of the New Orleans Times-Picayune and Larry Eichel of the Philadelphia Inquirer. And for Davie Epps and Mike Glover tonight. Thanks for joining us tonight for take one. Major funding for us was provided by friends of Iowa

Public Television.