Weather Whys; Forecasting Accuracy

This is weather wise. As long as meteorologists have made forecasts on radio and television, they have often been subject to widespread ridicule when a forecast goes awry. A prediction of sunny skies and light breezes for an upcoming holiday weekend might be good news for many people, but it can turn to disappointment and even anger if clouds rain and wind swamp the area instead. People tend to remember those spectacularly blown forecasts much longer than they do those many predictions that are right on the nose. An unfortunate forecaster whose prognostication really misses the mark might literally hear about it for years. Add that to the public's overall perception that forecasting isn't very accurate, and the meteorologist might be said to have a serious image problem. So how reliable is forecasting? Well, for one thing, it depends on what you're trying to forecast. Computing the high and low temperatures, for example, are usually much easier than forecasting precipitation.

In general, though, there have been improvements over the last few decades, largely because of the advent of more accurate numerical computer models and a better understanding of how and why the atmosphere works the way it does. On the whole, forecasts for the period of 12 to 24 hours are very good. Even one to two day outlooks are relatively reliable. But currently, after the third day, forecasts don't stack up too well overall. So while forecasting ability is improved quite a bit, the complex and chaotic nature of the atmosphere still makes long-term forecasting quite difficult. That's not something that's likely to change very soon, even though scientists are making strides in their efforts to understand the theoretical limits on forecasting. Otherwise is made possible by a grant from the National Science Foundation and is a service of the University of Oklahoma. For weather wise, I'm Drew Barlow.