Weather Whys; Forecasting

This is weather wise. When a meteorologist makes a forecast, it's a blend of science and art, of reason and intuition. To an outside observer, the process may seem somewhat confusing, but it's really more systematic than it may look. First, the meteorologist reviews the current situation. He wants to know if there are weather systems in the area or if there are systems likely to affect the region soon. He also checks the temperatures and humidities in the area and might even look at maps from several hours or even days ago to see how the present weather pattern evolved. He might also examine results from some of the many numerical models available. Those models are run on high-speed computers to solve equations of the motion of the atmosphere to predict future weather patterns. Then, the meteorologist makes his own forecast on the basis of all that information. He might use the persistence or continuity method in his forecast. That means weather systems are assumed to continue moving in the same direction at the same

speed unless there's evidence suggesting a change. For instance, under certain conditions an arctic air mask can sweep southward through the northern and central plains with little change in its properties. Even locations as far south as Dallas-Fort Worth can have low temperatures in the teams when one of those blue northers comes through. But in other cases, that cold air mask might be blocked or modified substantially even before it reaches Omaha. A good forecaster learns to recognize the different atmospheric conditions that can produce such varied results. That's some of the science part of forecasting. The intuition part is harder to describe. A forecaster's intuition may include many different things like an excellent memory for past weather patterns and how they affected the area. As in most aspects of life, experience plays an important role in meteorology. But otherwise, I'm Drew Barlow.