Weather Whys; Groundhog Day

This is Weatherwise. Every year, on February 2nd, news teams and curious onlookers gather around the front door of a very special Pennsylvania. He's known as Punxitani Fiddle, and some people believe, or maybe just pretend to believe he can predict the weather for a six-week period without benefits of maps, charts, or modern meteorology. It wouldn't be quite so outrageous, except that Fiddle is a groundhog, or woodchuck, or more properly a Marmotum Monax. In fact, for years, February 2nd has been known as Groundhog Day. Legend has it that when the groundhog comes out of his hole, if he sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't see his shadow, spring is just around the corner. But how did a lowly Marmot acquire such magnificent prognostocative powers? And are they really so magnificent? Well, actually, Groundhog Day used to be known as Candlemas Day, a Christian holiday celebrating the presentation of Jesus at the temple. The holiday was regarded as being so special that anything occurring on that day was regarded

as a sort of prediction. A cloudy candlemas was said to indicate the arrival of spring. But if the day dawned clear, wintery weather was to be expected. That goes along with the Groundhog Legend. A cloudy day means no shadow and the beginning of spring and vice versa. But neither bit of folklore can be said to be very reliable. However, the staying power of the legends has prompted a number of scientific studies on their validity. The Candlemas prediction scored about 50-50, which is like forecasting by flipping a coin. And poor old Phil's record actually shows an inverse relationship. In other words, if he indicates there are six more weeks of winter, it's more likely spring is at hand. At Weatherwise, our writer is Christine Harbour, our editor is Brian Walking, and our executive producer is Karen Hope. For Weatherwise, I'm Drew Barlow.