The 112th Congress and the 2010 Election: Part 2

the one hundred twelve congress convened this month with republicans picking up six seats in the us senate and taking control of the us house of representatives i'm kate mcintyre and today on k pr preserve we'll hear from a distinguished panel of political strategists and journalists about the november election and the challenges in both parties face in the years ahead it's part two of the dole institute of politics post election conference held december first and second two thousand ten at the university of kansas if you missed part one on last week's keep your presents its archive that our website k pr that hey you got edu republicans made major gains in both chambers of congress but they made major gains at the state level as well electing ted new republican governors including sam brownback hearing kansas and picking up six hundred and eighty seats in state legislatures across the nation that sets a very red states for upcoming reapportionment and redistricting when legislative districts are redrawn based on

the two thousand ten census david cancel year governor brown bags chief of staff as the impact of republican wins in two thousand ten could be felt for elections throughout the next decade will lose seats to gain seats that's really have to change mass effect that and the dream act and its dramatic within those state legislative bodies as well because redrawing voting districts and so that sets the foundation for ten years at tennessee even a number of democratic members who perhaps survived the cycle thinking i was a hundred year flood that maybe i'm not safe because it is different this confusion it probably was your reporting probably guess what we talk about jennifer granholm yesterday you treated katrina rita and jennifer losing jobs you look at blue states for a while knows about seven congressional seats those are little notes those move now to republican states the migration policies in the country

only ones that actually gaining seats in the psychological georgia florida and texas mostly flat or lose you're close in pennsylvania ohio illinois michigan and north carolina's flood virginia's flat california the blue or states are not growing the red states are and there's a long term problem for democrats whatever sit back and say it's the jon judah streeter share of the damage in the northeast coming away with just have to wait people are voting with their feet and moving away from blue america to render that matters at what the new elections a new report from cnn political director sam fine one thing worth noting is that florida that is going to benefit in terms of additional congressional districts another republican governor also has a new law about that create a commission for for redistricting so that your benefit as much from up from those incidents

jon cowan is director of polling for the washington post joins us to follow up on you the potential upside for that at the congressional level we talked yesterday about how and democratic districts are now much more concentrated republican district not presumably republicans will want to redraw the map in such a way to bring more democratic voters into that into their districts and change that dynamic summit is that kept the upside our fortunes of the immediate reward the other thing that waiters was important in the district is the rich gets in federal law and justice what you actually have now come january twenty eleven more republican us house us senate members or governors more black hispanic asian republicans who represent majority white constituencies they you do black hispanic asian democrats who were percent majority white constituencies the consequence of that is for redistricting a third of the house democratic caucus undertaker close is blacker spent almost and so they want to essentially districts

that are not competitive they won a majority minority districts which in the aggregate benefits republicans on distribution about that's a real problem for democrats for the incentives for the members' they have businesses are withdrawn that maximizes the number of democratic seats in the mozart tenure consequence a democratic pollster so lansky executive vice president at edison research elections in two thousand ten on maps that were mainly drawn by republicans and two thousand one or re drawn by republicans and texas in in two thousand for an is stumbling if convicted he gets convicted the same month that his map several several seats for the republicans but it's not just re districting house democrats that will face challenges in the next election senate democrats are expected to be an especially vulnerable in two thousand twelve twenty one democrats in the senate will be up for re election plus two independents that caucus with the democrats compared to only ten

republicans democratic pollster joel lansky says that paves the way for republicans to take control of the senate while ago from ten to fourteen if they don't the presence here ten to thirteen for a fifty fifty when with the vice president as a republican to win and if the republicans can't win fourteen out of thirty three seats in two thousand twelve something has changed the numbers are just so so much in their favor in the structurally in two thousand and ten it was long before we knew where the economy was long for the review of the park wants to be popular unpopular and structurally was really very varied gary hart almost impossible for republicans to win the us senate in two thousand teng and they got close again sam fights the cards are stacked against the democrats in

exactly the same if not a much worst way that they feel some obligation to sleep a democratic strategist jim margolis in terms of numbers no i think that there's a pretty compelling case of this is very hard for democrats in the same way that one we're discussion yesterday when you look at the midterm election of a president you can draw some conclusions looking at historical trends and so i will acknowledge that all of that is true but i do think senate races are different than house races i think it frequently they become a contest between two people two candidates in a way that is different than some of the kind of transit easy to agree with the house certainly max versus last year in places like nevada in places where we had very difficult races around the country where we came out on the right side and were able and the senate that the conversation is a little bit different than just sort of looking at that how it sometimes plays out of the house so

where the economy is i think is going to be the biggest german er in all these elections coming up i'm very concerned about what happens with redistricting looking for because there was as david points out real sea change in typically within these legislatures and even in the past where people are under in a white house and maybe force a negotiation now married these days where we've lost governors in the noble both chambers are a problem and but i would say that if we're looking at people feeling with some confidence about where the economy is is move and if we have some success in a couple of these other areas and we have the candidates though i'm not ready to you know be put up the flag parents and g mitch mcconnell's rig over harry reid's office and start measuring the curtain something out you know the one thing that when a majority leader in the senate is up on the ceiling in his office you get the seal of your state painted in one

will win win and take a look and you know there could change that quite yet to kentucky from the veterans can stay there for a little bit longer and i guess i'm i'm not really citizens again peter fenn if we had this discussion two years ago about what was going to happen in two thousand and ten and we went through the state in the senate let's take a look we are here we get a republican senator from ohio retiring we have a republican senator from new hampshire where democrats have just swept retiring we have a you know republican senator in kentucky retiring we have good candidates coming out in the states we have pennsylvania a switch the one state the one state that the democrats who said you know it's probably gone we know where we were talking we were taking a lot of you know maybe two three senate

it said two years ago arm and then there were things i think that we shouldn't have to be careful of is that it is just a first also raises a different but secondly you know that the retirements of heaven by who would have predicted that you know the the retirement north dakota throwing those two races that the window for democrats that there may be situations where folks just say i'm gone so you have that you also have yet a situation down about it were where democrats could conceive of pick up that seat my view of defense and the nominee a massachusetts they could easily swing back to the democrats but on balance if one looks at the numbers one would have to say boy if we have if the democrats do well the senate don't lose any seats that would be a great you know there's no question but i just raised that question because we all you know that we all we all way ellison and some eu two years later voided jerusalem that they're the last things a week don't again john

palin but we do know about exposure and needed just pointing that is there's so many seats that are open and that was the key factor in their votes on the house on this year to talk about no one but this is the magician made but the fact is the democrats picked up fifty five ugly house seats of the work of the previous two cycles and those were vulnerable or forty eight seats where john mccain beat rock obama and war held by democrats that's that big exposure on the house side the explosion be with republicans now i believe there were more than fifty and so seats that new for obama one for a two years ago that are now held by the gop and the potential will be an ex cons does exposure on the house side the same apartment democrat exposure in the sense that matter is not the only factor mark mellman democratic pollster you summing up this year said it was exposure plus recession eagles disaster say you need something else in the equation but you know exposure is a key component fifty thousand twelve elections are right around the corner from politicians looking at running for higher office

is specially for those positioning themselves to run for president again john cohen director of polling for the washington post they're stories that come out of these elections the candidates and campaigns are to tell themselves determine who will become the front runners and there's a much clearer story in two thousand sixth and we have now even a month after this election in groups like this and i think helping us figure out what the election twenty ten means incredible how we'll set up twenty twelve but you tell us it's really clear to the sixth note being about independence and then as we talked about yesterday when four democratic house has been eating point previous five elections neither side had cleared fifty written from jail but united let consultants on both sides to dismiss them at the mills research and in a sixteen to focus on over one focus among democratic voters on the war in iraq you know in many ways led network of gong rep ferraro to choose to run for the presidency has the story of that election and what it

meant and how we all interpreted that kind of fuel that decision or at least contributed to the stories that are being told about twenty ten will determine how candidates receiving that the emergence of the tea party yeah well what it that feels this erik ablin rhinestones that may be alluding to i mean i was inconvenient the strength of the small numbers but enthusiastic voters so i think that the big tussle over the last month and what does is watching me what was the message of voters or say i must admit even after a lot of looking at the numbers i don't know what that is and is still playing out and playing out board rooms and polls now across the country and somehow that story emerges will determine who the actual front runners are i mean the names are obvious that that you hear mitt romney is that this woman running a stealth campaign stop campaign for several years sarah palin comes in and out of the discussion they're out there are new republican governors and senators who have

you been nodded in the direction of going and we can talk about the others walk up a more familiarity with what they said and plant do i think that you can't beat the extent that which that the next two years and republican policy and understanding of the election what the tea party means focus on the deficit of oscar national security will determine and who the last now you get the odd names of the news you get sergei when you get mike huckabee to some extent and you get mitt romney and so that's that's an easy new thing now three conducted a poll but given how the story emerges over the next quarter really determined and provide a lot of grist for who those people actually bill lacy is the director dole institute of politics at the university of kansas third arc or soccer that isn't getting mentioned that that you'd notice yeah i can tell you that the people who could come up in a single digits and in polls and so that those are all those are older courses but yeah i don't until they currently are ten percent national paul ii some not my focus but on a question with four

two of pulling them when they emerge you know i think just really hit it on the head in terms of the analysis the first thing that i think all of us know is that everything changes so anything said today his key role and if you went back in this point on our side last time you were set you know there's even talk about anybody says hillary clinton and if you had said that even as we got into the fall of two thousand seven two months before iowa us are the same thing right now we we thought there was that you would have said the same thing so anything that we're doing today is kind of throwing darts at the airport which gets recognized that again jim margolis i do think that presidential elections are often a question or when the water replicate what you got what he would replace what you've got and it's often in the context is just pointing out of who's an officer who

represents sort of the culture to that that works and ultimately i think the successful republicans or you have to find somebody who will appeal those key swing independent voters want the same time managing their way through a conservative primary process and that is not an easy thing to do when you got out you know look at these states is you actually is coming out and and boeing and then turn around and satisfy that constituency and still be viable as you get to the general election so does the same answer that i think ultimately the folks we see africa romney's voice and so on or are we where they are today and that doesn't mean us will be you know a year from now and my dark horse choice but there's a lot of rumblings internet everywhere i go up there were rumor that he's put together the campaign had a high wire you know still hurts worst united and i should tell you know it's got a management team we moved around

a lot of different conferences person or it'll even everyone in the audience your drone is not going to come from yeah they're via videotape and i would say it's difficult to pick one person i would say there's a cheery front runners that survey on a newt and mitt romney republican pollster linda divall are all calling your culling go but here a woman is very well it's passed away recently would say that minority president had been around the block once before had gone through the process and in a way there's two people who meet their criteria that are in a top tier romney certainly but newt has certainly run a national campaign for speaker and two when the republican majority was never run for president the interesting thing about new disease no

longer the most conservative candidate she holds moderate position right now and i think that the gems point and it is all about this he has this replacement theory now going on right now we have to replace the you know the liberals with new a new model if you will and that's precisely his model i think the voters are going to be looking for some viewers on the plaza say little rabbit us and stature as obama convince in terms of the presence that he projects which is formidable and the right thing the past few years nick himself and we i say that lovingly side tennis balls are not working families brilliant on both the question is will he be disciplined enough to run a presidential campaign there's nobody in my mind has better ideas and better about understanding in his mind what will work and will not work and that that strength and that happens is something that a lot of people be looking for a mitt romney i would say is an economic expert the question is can

he overcome the massachusetts healthcare plan and he hasn't come to grips with that and i think that's a serious detractors and sarah kale and surly has a connection with the voters but whether she has the gravitas and stature that primary voters are looking for to replace this president i don't know my dark horse candidate is mitch daniels offer a whole host of wreaths the reasons he's a well regarded governor he and is an ideas person he's thoughtful he's connected to middle america he has the fiscal credentials but i think they're going to be important for people to listen to and that is not enough critically distracted by the fact that he's not in arizona one or two percent we're polls right now china doesn't bother him in the leaves and he will run a very unconventional campaign should he decide to get into the race i don't even think it's certain that he will but i'll keep going to be a one or two percent so this could just figure what linda said there were disciplined really important when it comes to

new verses newt gingrich worse mitt romney camp life political director foresee an ann romney is nothing about the sick and he is at this point as the most significant organization and ground work way and that's not an important the quinoa and new hampshire and so his organization is is a stock campaign not to stop campaign ready to are ready to go and so that puts him ahead of the pack because he's got organization and discipline but for sarah palin johnson and she will instantly have an awful lot of oxygen in the news well so you know they're all there together and we just see what they decide that mitt romney said last night on the tonight show that he's not yet decided so the view is what he ultimately decides surprise it turns a dark horse at dark horses i'd just i'm watching carefully to see if it runs and watching john thune who i think is maybe the most interesting person

he not that he's a front runner four for ticket when the republican nomination this time around palm but he can surprise people he's he's a smart guy a truck the candidate and that it may be that he he explores this time seventy years more successful mixed anne kornbluth is the white house correspondent for the washington post but we're hearing from everybody so far and what frankly to me a surprising is that there is no front runner there's no heir apparent which on the republican side we've always had in the past even if there were props isn't that a fight early on there was always somebody who you knew was this sort of establishment person who earned it or deserve it was supposed to be there and that person doesn't exist it can make the case i guess that kind of romney's because he's been there before but you could make the case i think for new two on so now what you didn't say that this is very heartening news to the white house to watch this fight start

now it's a little later than that when those could be that that this gets to be a fight an internal fight among republicans you know that could be energizing but also divisive for the next few months on the dark horse identity rick perry's another name to throw out there from texas people talk about and then it we've talked about bloomberg as a potential third party candidate i have a hard time believing that that will happen as much as people around him want to honor the fact that even see this kind of viable i think tells you where the how much oxygen there is still on the honorable concert again so lansky i go to the wise man i worked for cbs news that twenty three years ago and he said what will happen is what people expect to happen just in such a way it was so many twists and turns as the cause the most possible work for the elections are very turned out that was the case i mean we did forty

primary exit polls in two thousand eight and we never expected to go beyond super tuesday and at the time you know i said well that's the case john mccain to win the republican nomination with a lot of twists and turns and hillary clinton will win the democratic nomination a lot worse in terms of i was half right john mccain went from frontrunner to broke too front runner again won the nomination in a way no one would have predicted but he ended up winning the nomination hillary clinton looked like to the foreigners when an awesome all these twists and turns and after forty primaries and caucuses come obama won the nomination so i i oh i can project is there's going to be a lot worse in terms of the wars that we don't even know who's running we are four years ago john edwards jury announced hillary clinton wins a few weeks away from announcing <unk> make this file decision announcing the republican field hats started the week we had we don't know i mean as if sarah palin to make and two hundred thousand dollars an episode for tlc why would she get that up to run if mike huckabee is making more money with fox news

that he had made in his previous less why would consider running so even if you don't even know the lineup and i don't know how anyone can make a project like i do think if you're the democrats in the side i think it's free for the worst ticket for the toughest of that for the democrats are on to someone like mitch daniels and marco rubio back on a combination of solid own midwestern fiscal conservative with a tea party favorite like rubio that also brings florida and hispanic how come some traction for republicans i think that's the toughest ticket for the democrats to run against and i think that's that what we talked to say the republicans follow the buckley rule or they fall in all matches the buckley rule at someone like daniels and rubio that's a tough race for obama if it's the limbaugh wanted someone like

sarah palin and whoever else she she may think that that's a lot easier for a woman whose singer linda list of the top three were about in the poll the only one of those three be actually know is running despite protestations to the contrary he competitive financially or less fifty four years every republican nominee as a sitting president a sitting vice president a son of the former president or his run for president lost before except the water it's painted a party that traditionally so in all likelihood years ago from now is running a last two democratic presidents one presence in the first trial that's not something a republican has done since eisenhower as too dark horses long term approach this way in kansas we have a roadmap for kansans paul ryan had the roadmap for america that's not strictly a coincidence if i pick a dark horse somebody that the intellectual heft the character's experience for all

candidates kills an example again major garrett one order television i still pay attention the way things sound of just writing down names of previous presidents thomas frank when theodore george jerry william a gram and i just thought for a moment the two very top republican potential candidates are named mitt and newt it doesn't mean anything at all it's big and funny public with observations i agree with everything that's been said just remember this though when i was covering the democratic nomination fight in two thousand eight there were those the mccain camp who thought well the one of the strikes out the better be for us they were completely wrong the longer that drag out the batter was for the democratic he became a continuous national conversation that energized the party nationwide ban was a it's an echo chamber of the ideas that were fundamental to brock obama's ultimate essentially the nomination an

ultimate ascension to the white house so be careful what you wish for presidential politics ireland is actually write about newt gingrich i believe is going around convene together almost the people in the summer and asked them to tell him all the reasons he shouldn't run and everyone said morales is i've been told are you disciplined do you have what it takes to put together a campaign and do the thing that you are most intellectually averse to doing which is saying one or two things over and over and over and over and not engaging in every intellectual argument that is broadly away with other things and presidential politics is repeating herself and repeating yourself endlessly because that's how you drive your message if you don't drive your message and you chase also the issue down rather boldly take the bait of your primary opponent you get knocked off the ripper new discipline is a key issue oh sarah kale and it's quite clearly if she were to announce she would be the instant front runner in iowa new hampshire and south carolina there's no question about that

she would then have to transfer that immediate front runner status into real discipline ground a surveillance ever done surveillance never had to engage in organized and delegate you know the great challenge in a presidential campaigns you have to trust people to trust a lot of people and you have to go about it and i think it yourself of fifty things that need to be done while i'm back and shoulder maybe two another forty things i believe and i've got to go to bed and sleep and reliable as other people or take your the forty concert they would do that is that within certain ailment capability to the four enormous import decisions about her future to somebody else but for the robbers can be the roaster and the dark horse i would say another indian politician mike pence what is going wrong mike pence is going to say something that almost no oil slick competitive round of republican candidates will say to tea party and conservative activists in your primary states on every issue you care about dating back to the first days of george w bush's presidency i was with you

i vote against no child left behind i vote against medicare part d i was against all the spending every gets all the appropriations bill so you know a lot of republicans are against obama but i was against what you were against the bush years and he's going to say out of oregon star john for purposes of the getaway to explain he's going on that sense of every persuasive that season again about two percent say he's going to go out there and say on every issue you care about from a beginning i was with you and that tends to matter and republicans republican strategist karen there's a lot of buyers' remorse among republicans after mccain was nominated and down and every when who didn't vote for romney looked back and fed you think that that was the end he looked so good on paper and i think republicans really want to like romney and want him to be you know that their knight in shining armor and so he obviously is very disciplined and talk wrestling knows how to delegate knows how to

manage that campaign is so i you know he has to be the front runner i think another you know i don't even know he's such a dark horse is you can't discount huckabee i'm having me held in there longer and much to the frustration of many republicans that he held and he held in there i don't think he can raise the money to be seriously competitive but time but i do think if he gets into the game time he's also very disciplined amelia simmons' spend thirty minutes with the menu occurred every job he's ever told two or three times right now so you know he can't be absolutely should not be discounted and also just his ability to play to be on christian conservatives in these really key early primary states and never discount that and i just you know he'd just get up about the house things sound i think barber rubio sounds really cool really neat

bumper sticker it added i i had a you know i you could just you know take a candidate that you wish to be the upper writer i think haley barbour will be on my latest he's semi is easy anti obama but not for the obvious reasons of the joe scarborough this and the chris matthews to go out there and say we can have bub up running against brock obama and has nothing to do with that it has to do with sam weinman who's very comfortable with the media very comfortable with governing very comfortable with all of the issues that matter from energy healthcare you name it because every deal with as a governor and he's also the person who go into the crowd who could go up to a jim margolis i was a democrat and slam on the shoulders a doomed it and i think americans want to know it back on our pants and think they want someone who made you slap them on the shoulder go i don't buy whether you're democrat or

republican i think he could really relate with people now when he when i don't know if we can win over the christian conservatives that he's got some baggage and i either stayed out that mrs bae had my wishful thinking candidate i think they would be healer barker a barber with you again peter pham one of the last in the lord our courses that i don't have one more to this was although maybe in the vice presidential side but chris christie is now the darling of a larger concern here's somebody governor is common majors he's taken on less of a democratic state it start shifting i still like new jersey and that grab it begin a change a basic dynamics of the race it has a lot of things that he's going to we're going to buy is a very interesting candidate and come up with a phony names for him as president but

so so now i get christie barber plans daniels whom huckabee's that's a lot of it i think we very well may see does somebody come out of the woodwork and not nanny a nanny a typical grocery store in the polls right now i am a new mom do we really want to feed the lead ex college professor in the book where you know one of the republican party all the the the other thing and i about some ways that i really think it depends on what the book about reports like and what with the economy looks like it's workers were moving in i'll you know romney if you if you look at the assets and i hope that in the two thousand eight campaign for the republicans unbelievable how far right they were gone and what were they going to some

electronic the true conservative the race mccain with a true conservative and huckabee is most folks remember won the iowa caucus and an end to the vulnerabilities for romney are not only the health care bill but still on social issues the flip flop or on abortion and and and gay rights a guy who had left the ted kennedy those clips are out there they were used for it no reason they would be used again so it makes it tough for him unless if the economy is bad and they're looking for mr fix it if they want somebody who they really think ok this guy is a business guy he's an expert when to forget some of the factory's a year with a brain in a hurricane and some of these other issues and edward renewal and when i go with him because he's so strong economy so that that i think could potentially workers advantage all are on gingrich well you know i mean i said in two thousand eight but giuliani tidied pizza day he announces

i'm going to say i'm sorry but i feel the same way about me i mean i think the problem is that he is unbelievably stimulating an interesting but he's getting a huge amount of exposure but once you look at the personal stuff you're troubled the most personal book americans ever asked it's not a state rep not for mayor president nine states they want someone that they can see and feel and they get a real sense of a man and had trouble i think what would be known as the person to mention just like giuliani i'll say about sarah palin i mean i may be dead wrong i think she's gonna run through the money she's got almost eleven me that this good grief and she's just bowling and money i think her ego is growing i think i totally agree with major in terms of her discipline or lack thereof but it may not matter as she begins to laura ling and then you have a strong tea party and the anger of voters out there this is somebody you can get by those early

primaries and if they make those decisions quickly in republican primaries are trying to change the system a little bit but but should that you can roll into this singing get the nomination i would see them in a real possibility at all and she isn't then she can wait wait till i mean she the goal what mario cuomo almost didn't get any in eighty eight and now wait till october november because she's got the name recognition and she could raise the money she needs very quickly other guys all these dark horses can't wait if they really want are us now baldwin well that'd be such a departure for the republican party amir says as givens listing you know the credentials and the pedigrees of the nominees in the past she is a departure you have found no not quite half of republicans saying that she taught in our polling say she's qualified to be president but there's a lot being made in the past few weeks about her sky high

favor billy ratings among republicans and as a big no boost in going to the primary season but you know you have an even split on her qualifications to be president bellies such as of your departure from the list the damages not just for her job but his basic assessment for a long time that the president vice president or photos in campaign but he'd never won a lot of subtle there was nervous but it is never one all attempts of the voice the animal record that someone like outside the city of was so circuit was one one election one not to be disrespectful but a lot of people won one right what one hears point about serotonin might not matter one thing that works to her tremendous advantage is the depth of paralysis republicans feel about taking her on those horror comedies saying this week saying republicans have to say that sarah palin come on get serious and i'm with they're going to like a beeper obama with the republicans at all so what

i can be use their lives but some races have a conversation within the campaign until that happens they're appealing and wait and wait and wait and benefit from the paralysis her potential opponents either allow yourself to feel or actually think that's major garrett former white house correspondent for fox news now congressional correspondent for the national journal you're listening to part two of the dole institute of politics post election conference on kansas public radio i'm j mcintyre so the battle is beginning for republicans looking to run for president meanwhile president obama's team is already looking ahead to the two thousand twelve election as well republican pollster deval history suggest that the president is not face a primary challenge his chances of being reelected are enhanced significantly and i certainly don't see a scenario right now in this present of the challenge

to that is i'm fine i'll be there to underline things that are good make a break at one is jobs if unemployment remains at the notes that thompson are hiring the nine point five percent or higher i think it's going to be very difficult for him to get reelected it's now at a half percent and there is some numbers two hundred thousand jobs a month being created as opposed to you know under a hundred thousand that i think his ability to get reelected are enhanced in the thirty years or so a country at war and to places and we ever really talked about that much but the liberals are getting increasingly frustrated about the fact that we're in now or independents are wondering about yeah the cost of the goals of this effort and i think around back could create some further pressure points of to me those are the three significant things to look at in terms of assessing his ability to get reelected oh oh sizzling on and i think it is possible to to predict for the president's

overall narrative going to point to operate it's an almost direct opposite of the conventional wisdom about what the president's been in and we've been in office a year gemini not talk about this i could be on a percent wrong but i think i'm somewhat close to their bikes but democrats do to former president based on his record is but he's not been decisive weekly's on sure of our american cities precisely sure of our markets and digital america into thousand seven two thousand a way would take it and what he campaigned on as what he deliver across the board afghanistan would be edwards' example saying to liberals what are you complaining about i told you this is what i was going to do during the campaign until charred and the mortar rack right order to prosecute the war in afghanistan and i'm going to do that and he made that and i mean i'm all why liberals when he will tell the country i told you something and i did it on a very tough national security issues on the economy was worse than i anticipated i did everything i could intervene if unemployment as it is all the economists predict false nine point

six eight percent that's gonna be a very interesting as the white house likes to say inflection point are you on the upside of that and the downside of that is the progress or is that still sort of numbing level of economic growth and simply not satisfactory we don't know the answer that historically but the prison will say it's getting better and the trajectory is much better in twenty twelve than it was in twenty ten well look for more money on health care and say i've fought for this because it than sixty years and it took everything i had and yet she didn't like it but do you really want to give this up and that will be a question however individual voters but for four governors who now received medicaid assistance other things insurance companies are even buying into with her initial deal two weeks ago about insurance companies are much that they're now working with the administration implementing this law because with the individual mandate to have a lot more customers they can spread the costs of a lot more the insurance industry wants a boogeyman and for the home stretch of healthcare the bogeyman is now working with hhs an obama administration to make this law work that's a practical reality that when i think over time affect the debate over health care

brazil says all these issues i told you i was going to do i took a large democratic majorities i sacrifice their careers in part of my popularity to achieve things to change this country and you i believe make this case in the sense of big issues big decisions big accomplishments promises made promises kept saying that's the guarantee a reelection the one thing that are in american politics presence who are strong presence to lead and act confident about the leadership that i would have said the president did not do nearly as strong as he should have done in twenty twelve and doesn't quite well people say as they often elaborate i may not agree with them or a nor'easter is that you just continue on immigration let's not to be dealt with immediately you can't do everything and the present was i can't do everything you'd probably say reflective moment i wish i could have but i can't i can't get over again jim margolis zero no

i always talk about us i put that in the dresser and there really is i think that as was discussed yesterday a pretty remarkable couple of years here despite the fact the tuna we cut the problem dr alan johnston all countries looking at us whether it's equal pay and whether it's i think bringing this this preventing this economy are moving into depression whether it is delivering on things like health care and i think that as time goes on and people actually experienced some of these things we get into a better position where wendy ok republicans told you that if we pass health care working to set up the death panels and kill granny nobody's getting killed by the panels they said governments can take over your health care everybody so that there's a warrior you know for the blue cross blue shield their wallet we didn't come along and grab your health apart from that as time goes on people begin

to sort of see that in fact some of these things are beginning to happen is that the dire consequences that were rejected by the other side are in fact they're and most importantly if we begin to get a turnaround in the economy i think it turns into a different race so you know i actually discover your job goes to world goes i do agree that you know while hopped up they want anyone but were so you know so it was election day we were standing in the back of the stage in chicago and the president elect was back there and it was magical i mean you know hundreds of thousands of people around the world was watching it was one of those moments you'd you just had a feeling that you know your stomach him and he was there and yet all these problems existed that were talking about

and you know i just don't know you're going to be able to do with this you know what you got from the boat were literally but before it's york and they said you know it is in the times of great turmoil that big change is possible and we are going to be able to do everything we can do a lot and there is where i think he has led this last couple of years he can't learn there's a lot of turmoil there could be big progress curtains parted he walked out the crowd responsively the night you know and i i do believe that as we get so the time were actually comparing agencies or talk about what's gone out that we are reluctant to in a chemical storage which hasn't gotten koch so you know i think this actually may not be all that

complicated again peter fenn because i think the american people don't ask themselves in two years did it work and i would find it along the way but you know if that feeling is well as unsure about that worked our program i wasn't sure about what we were going with the unaccompanied i wasn't sure about what was happening with that with the financial system but basically we're now on the right track what the polling question which we all get a lick it is you know our eyes america the basically on the right track grocers and those wrong track numbers now and for the last several years have been horrendous if that begins to turn back and folks say you know this war ii but they didn't so i think he did it and that's basically economic base no question i think the big elephant in the wrong that week don't talk about and except in gentilly would just mention live here clearly is afghanistan i think there's no question but that no one was hardly out there basing their vote this last time on afghanistan are more foreign

policy and immigration reform that if this policy goes south if there's a serious problem going to be watching that anyway but if that if the answer to get it work is you know he made it work in afghanistan in foreign policy better and then the economy back and the upswing you know you might as well money to set up an open after governor of the world like they were i think i've afghanistan i think we can see a way which afghanistan doesn't explode with renowned what i mean i think they'll start youtube troop drawdown next summer but it may not be that miserable and i think the administration's prepared for having to keep it more or less stable are looking stable from afar between now and the election again anne kornbluth of the washington post i think the bigger question is something more unexpected but like i mentioned yesterday a successful terrorist attack or another bp oil spill that when amina we forgot about it now it went on forever and if something like that happens the question will be than what the leadership does the public see from him and

are they able to turn on a dime what haven't always been able to to do and then he hasn't had a partially oil spill and an economy but he knew about that going in the head and then won big unexpected things that he's had to grapple with but then pretty much you see them coming down the pike and sounds were waiting for that shoe to drop and panicked just to get to your original question what's what's he what does he need to do that when i want to give it to the thirty thousand foot view afghanistan economy unemployment the unexpected sam sized political director for cnn a small crew is housing and when ohio for her books and as the as as the two dozen full action returns to the normal been elections you can figure that out of state with the new republican governor republican senator there now much redder than they were in two thousand eighteen inch region has that plan offered strategist looked at that a thousand twelve election one question that remains to be seen is whether a wide

field of republican candidates will hurt or helped their side and vice versa whether will hurt or help president obama republican strategist and governor brown bags chief of staff david kent singer says he like this the healthy competition within the gop well many thanks to investors and republican party would you like to explain to embrace entrepreneurship is actually not embraced competitive vibrant open nominating contests sharon's demand and services competition promotes excellence with thirty seven candidates run because we really primaries in august it work people got inspired the comics it was almost a national infomercial when obama appointment of june and the people of those tickets thirty five million people voted for those two candidates between and they raised how many millions and millions of dollars it ended being a spectacular real thing for me in this age with this much anticipation republican side to try and control of the tribe in the spirit from this fall let it go out for sports so the party the marketplace what the

marketplace as one mechanical answer the question is very important that democrats in their caucuses and primaries allocating delegates for nominating conventions in a proportional way that's reason hillary clinton's it will stay in the race long she was republican delegate their delegates on a winner take all four minute you win the primary when all the delegates that shortens the timeline for republican nominee and makes appealing question ever more important because really it's up for a boring and eighties we've named ronnie rugby cup to a big and fast are you can make this a accompli much more rapidly than you ever could and democratic a primary or caucus process so odd that will inevitably shortened the length of time republicans will find out the nomination process unless they have three or four candidates too when one lose one when one lose one and no one jumps out but in our very rapid media cycle when you win a couple you tend to

build momentum and people like to vote for winners and primary voters were basically deciding in the democratic process to the more liberal or democratic is recovering more conservatives adventure based law forbids alibaba wants and intends to below a momentum particular republican side a winner take all four men that grows much more rapidly almost exponential again to lansky it with the republicans have proposed to change any primaries before april first will no longer be winner take all they have to put in place to get it as a minute when we don't know which data for april first was this in the africa first which only one of their goals and what we don't know the lineup of candidates will even though the lineup of primaries and caucuses the timing in the rules yet so it is you're writing history the vertical fears about very early but that might not be the rules for the early primaries and caucuses in the senate and here's the other thing did of all the longer the

contest goes the more that voters will pay attention and try one of the worst things was when bob dole won the nomination so really there is that wall where all the sudden he was young really not the nationalism have the money to travel or do anything so if you still have a competitive presidential primary going on and let's face it we do not yet have a leader of our party so the longer this goes on the more people get to see and judge who they want the leader of the party to be undone hawk think it's time for the republican national committee to eliminate the debt that they will be so out of work and do the job that they need to do to fully fund a presidential campaign and everything else that apparatus needs to do but we should not lose sight of the fact that we need a leader and that's not going to be something that's going to be a slam dunk that will be decided by march first a plea we've all talked about what we would've predicted two thousand sixty two thousand am i can remember going through all sorts of hand wringing democratic operatives right after george w bush won reelection two thousand four or democrats and sister were all last week where we're completely cooked you're doing this weekend will never get back in the game i mean the volatility of american politics now is the absolute rule

everything changes and that for that reason covering politics has never been more enjoyable because you just all all that we we alter history that history is a less capable predictor that has been and fifty years that was half of it is that it is as mark twain said about them whether you're a midwest if you don't like it wait a minute and then as politics as an amazing thing is is that political trip to the truman library which has a wonderful library really not what is wonderful building is this but it has a wonderful library and and of course you know looking at the forty six campaign where the republicans slogan which had enough and then republicans came sweeping in much like you liked dave and even more seats gained and bernstein son and then of course coming back passengers lean forty eight truman swim and this is precisely what people will ask it at you promised change you know we had a rough

time and as it does it work it says is the change worked for us or is it worked against that i think that the odds are you're going to see it working very much in a positive direction for a while i think the healthier thing is going to be turning out forty and say boy i think i would get worse all this problem i think that this southern get an economy folks will say you know this is this is a rising tide lifted in the boat but we'll see change cuts both ways and this was another change election and the voters where it has changed over experience unleashed this time went overwhelmingly for republican house candidates and so there's a challenge for them as well and some say that governs interstate in terms of delivering on that change because they picked up the house not the senate but that's a debate can have you know another time but it says that the change is a powerful force in us later on and you're going out and you're that that the challenges on both parts that's jon kuhl and director of polling for the washington post before him a democratic strategist and told fellow peter fenn and

major garrett congressional correspondent for the national journal formerly the white house correspondent with fox news other bar dispenser the dole institute of politics post election conference include sam feist political director for cnn and kornbluth white house correspondent with the washington post jim margolis democratic media strategist david camm singer chief of staff for governor brownback linda duvall republican pollster karen hand ready republican strategist joe lansky democratic pollster and bill lacy director of the dole institute a special thanks to bill lacy and lawrence bush of the dole institute for making this program available if you missed last week's broadcaster par one of the institute's post election conference its archived on our website k pr back hey you that edu and j mcintyre kbr present is a production of kansas

public radio at the university of kansas next time i'm katie orr resents kansas public radio the art of commemoration kansas as the centennial from school kids to state agency can sense will be celebrating our state's one hundred and fiftieth birthday later this month on how will you commemorate one hundred fifty years of statehood big birthday cake see historical reenactment i'm j mcintyre join the eight o'clock next sunday evening when we'll explore some of the many ways you can commemorate the campuses with centennial kbr presents kansas won fifty eight o'clock sunday evening on kansas public radio mrs

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