The 112th Congress and the 2010 Elections, Part 1

but one hundred twelve congress took office this week assuring in a republican majority in the house and a more evenly divided senate i'm kate mcintyre and today on k pr presents we'll look at the political climate leading up to the two thousand ten election and the challenges facing both parties in the year ahead we'll hear from journalist and political strategist that met last month at the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas most political analysts agree the loss of many democratic seats in congress was directly linked to president obama's popularity level and that like most midterm elections the two thousand ten election was a referendum on obama's presidency leadership and policies democratic strategist and dull fellow peter pham says one key factor was clearly the collapse of the us economy the meltdown was clear the need for immediate action was clear the need for action that was not going to be popular was clear on and i think that that there's no question but that that

here's president obama sent one point of weaponry to be this bad and utter i would've won and so i think there's actually no question that i don't find very many presidents in nine states that have to take over a ship it's that that need serious bailing the you are there with their popularity polls and david axelrod said as much as said to the president earlier look at these numbers i can hold for too long obviously the economy the second thing i think is that they underestimated this be at the helm is the difficulty of working with republicans are present that void in our first president in the thirty five years to get to a democrat to get a majority of the vote once a chilean once since nineteen sixty for and that we have we have the ability here to bring

republicans together now i i think that that that dissipated very very quickly and then reverberate against the president so i think that was a seed from those two reasons i think when one other thing and that is that this is a president i think he does want it and as the president who felt that he wanted the ground running everybody was telling him yet to move aggressively on a whole series of programs and health care obviously being the main one or united the debt limit for six months so alma mater a smart policy one sense to keep going on these things it makes politics republican strategist karen hand ready and there are a couple of things i think the administration really believed all the headlines about why they won the election and i think that they didn't they weren't flexible enough as a you know in the end the following year after he was inaugurated to appreciate that i'm the people's priority

was really johnson the economy in their prior he was not kind of major overhaul of health care and i think they failed to appreciate the young the anger and anxiety throughout the nation among independent voters saw democrats say you know more moderate democrats and a marked man ah into a large extent and i think that really fueled a lot of anger from people who wanted president obama to do well and to succeed and to in fact voted for him on and i think all that really culminated into iran lack of priority is due to appreciate what the american people's priorities were as opposed to the white house's own political priorities in their own agenda and what they saw as their destiny as opposed to the destiny that the american people are living where ninety today i would say four things structural attitudinal explanatory and policy major garrett is the

congressional correspondent for national journal he's the former white house correspondent for fox news structurally economy clue was worse than the president's economic team imagine i'll get back the second attitudinal the country did not respond politically those soft obama supporters of those up supporters many of whom i saw during the campaign traveling with german president who were swept up in the sense of euphoria great expectations present attitude did not seem to match their level of expectation is coolness an aloofness left many americans cold about the way the president communicates them about the country and its destiny explanatory the president i think feel at times to adequately explain the depth of the problem the way he was intervening to try to solve the problem and what a solution would look like and how to measure in the public mind of the president have to explain both things where we are where we're going and how you know what we've gotten i think on all three of those are present can perform much better than on policy those people who were

either skeptical originally about in the stimulus or cap and trade or healthcare oftentimes never be white house deal with questions raised by republicans or inquisitive reporters felt as if their concerns their skepticism about his policy choices at are either being marginalized or as karen said they felt with this is correct or not they perceived they were being looked down upon and he felt alienated from the debate when they heard the president or his advisers talk about some ways very structural issues of all for those things i think they contributed to the president's own personal popularity problems and they contributed the losses we saw on the house recently give you just a couple of quick statistics they're fifty four house democrats running for reelection this term who call themselves blue dog democrats and centrist democrats of those fifty four twenty eight lost a bid for reelection and fifty two percent and obama districts he cared less than fifty two percent there were fourteen democrats seeking re election in a fourteen pope seeking reelection to open seats

democrats lost eleven of those seats and in the obama districts there were fifty two to fifty five percent twenty five races twenty three relax to openness republicans won thirteen so in these nominally obama districts where house democrats are trying to live with the supporters who'd during the campaign did not go with mccain and sided with obama baby they pulled away and the way they sent the signal that they were pulling away from his agenda and as president was to punish the democrats to represent him in the year ellsworth says that while obama's popularity has plummeted since taking office and the polar joe lansky says the numbers have really only changed among one group of voters those independents they don't identify themselves as either republicans or democrats but democrat parsons main selling for about eighty five ninety percent of republicans after a little bit of hesitation at the very beginning right after the stadium norrell became silent

any about the big move was among independents and that that was even more dramatic than the overall numbers or approval that that you have there and i i think is the intense voted for obama came away thinking they were getting change the things i got a bit like us who will point out but i think the change they're looking for in terms of economy was stimulating jobs and what they got was a bailout of wall street got was healthcare reform that was important and would create jobs without the stimulus that was unclear was going to create jobs and but the lack of job creation i think was the biggest turnaround that independent group against obama and against the democrats ms anne kornbluth is the white house correspondent for the washington post she says the economy is definitely to blame for obama's loss of popularity but that the natural swing of the election cycle is also to blame for democratic losses in the two thousand ten election nina two years

in the president likely to lose such obviously part of it on but it i do think that and the charity that deliver or prove that he had delivered on some of the big campaign promises or to explain what changed was it maybe it wasn't going to meet voters expectations but has to be explained that some form of chamber some form of what he intends to do on the campaign had taken place it is a big part of this and talking to folks at the white house what we hear often is what we do a lot of big things in a very short amount of time in addition to preventing second great depression and while that may be true he didn't always square up with white voters had expected to see from them so i think that was part of it and then it and that's also tied in to the communication problem that we've all talked a great deal about but then i think what i see through the entire second row seat every day the white house has to do with not having a reason that are like that that sort of solid easy to understand reason why he is present at this point and it's been very fashionable talk about the narrative and i don't really think it's that there was a campaign narrative he had a personal narrative but that's different

from a governing reason and he hasn't really been able to prove that he has what either bush had in talking about nine eleven keeping the country safe or what clinton before him had in the economy and and that's why i think we've seen a shift toward the economy now but he hasn't yet fully owned it sam feist is political director at cnn every president's approval ratings drop off after january twentieth that that's just a given there's regardless of whether you voted for president or not you're hopeful that that president is going to succeed whoever had won the two thousand eight election i was saddled with something extra mets the perception in the mindset of the citizens that the economy is actually getting worse even though it was actually statistically economically beginning to make the turn of the country didn't feel it and it and the country felt like it to continue to get worse after inauguration and he paid a political price for you know they weren't necessarily and his policies and then what you do he fought

very hard to pass the stimulus never popular always unpopular and the other thing he fought very hard to pass healthcare never popular not people always unpopular and those were his two biggest accomplishments those were the wrong two things to have accomplished if that if you were hoping for your popularity numbers that destabilize or go up and then it was the key then the communication about what he had passed and what he accomplished arm didn't work out so well obama came in as the greatest communicator since ronald reagan or at least perceived as such and on today be defeated ohio democratic governor ted strickland was very critical of the president for failing to communicate on any number of any number of levels if the stimulus was so important and save the economy from falling off the cliff this president didn't convince many or any americans that succeed in the healthcare

act was important was gonna ultimately save decrease the deficit provide health care and do all these wonderful things without expanding role garment center didn't convince many or any people of that so when you put an unpopular policy that he failed to communicate it in any significant way on an economy that really didn't recover for much of the year first eighteen months of his presidency i think it does make some sense it they're certainly things that they could've done an egg knowledge it but boy for next year very first question about whether we thought the year republicans would take over the house and i also would be curious to see the folks around this table if they would have believed that obama's poll numbers would've gone from where they were in january twenty first two thousand nine to where they are right here at the in the two thousand republican pollster linda divall says the gop held a number of focus groups in the months after obama was

elected but that initial optimism about the president began to sour after the passage and the stimulus package very quickly changed to he doesn't understand thirties as a lack of currencies lost the focus on jobs and i think two things happened one too quickly worked to expand government to that was under much evidence for demonstrated by the stimulus package and because trump a stimulus package to suspect it was ineffective in terms of meeting their target list a target was reducing jobs it's the process by which they try to implement that holy like any transparency and that's what really rankled independence and grassroots voters across the country and what's changed in my mind in terms of saying that the republicans could gain control was the gop house concerts at the homestead the end of january when a newt gingrich spoke at dinner that night and it was the day after every single republican voted against the stimulus package snyder's total republican unity mike castle mark kirk are judy

biggert you know republican the conservatives mark in lockstep to defeat the stimulus package and at that point it was the dinner speaker that night and he said you know what we can become the majority in the house representative john tanner will be your next speaker it to continue to do which are doing and show planet troubles critics and some republicans like the plan that was very much about the case than they are republican leadership i did have a plan but i think more importantly recruitment was unbelievable and in our candidates across the country and yes washington has something to do with the treatment that we're making elves president obama and paul says the democrats and their heavy handed tactics in terms of how they were to pass legislation really resulted in people cross country say i want to run we need to change the direction of the country and the time is now and i think that helped to spur this incredible change themselves and others obama had about other republicans approving of the job

presents jon cowan is director of polling for the washington post by this fall the rigid and eighty percent among republicans yet eighty percent goes far lower than bill clinton ever been one republicans now that some part obama and some of the policy things that have been discussed around the table and the obama administration and we can talk about those was also the political climate yeah george bush george w bush had been in the single digits among democrats for much of the last three years of his presidency but now never before that period had any president been in single digits in them washing the citizens polling since we started an ongoing way late in the current edition the inability to get support from yale one of the two major parties you really puts a cap on the president's approval numbers and so you need to balance be part of the context and think about but also means going back to issue number one the economy yet the last time the country was in the throes of such a major

recession was in the early eighties and you take obama's approval ratings from the very beginning to now they track almost exactly with rates and you know we say it again and again are polling analysis that we put out on some up and hopefully you will not read but yet at the market they track it was exactly that they correlate know almost perfectly with what happened to reagan in the first two years of his presidency and the overwhelming factor then as now was the economy so that we can to de blasio things that is really good i do every back to sort of the human dimension because us what i was dealing with every day that i was out doing a number of the senate races this time jim margolis democratic media strategist people are hurting and you know you're in kansas and you know it's in the states i was working and like senator reid's race and in nevada and california all across this country and you know if you are in a circumstance where armed yeah fifteen percent unemployment which is what we're facing in and

thinking about a race where two thirds of the houses we're upside down where people owed more on their mortgages than the house was worth when they looked out at the cul de sac that they lived on and saw that the house across the across the way that now they could purchase for two hundred thousand dollars when they spent four hundred thousand dollars you're still making their payment up to those people i understand why they're angry i understand why they want change i understand why they are looking for something different even if they supported our president this last time or democrats in the past for her senator governor and that was true all across this country and you know it's interesting as i sat in those focus groups that a lot of the other people were to sit on the on the other side of that you know last one way mirror i knew you'd listen in on one another the this intellectual conversation with the

soulless ag and i know it's gonna take two three years before we really turn this economy around and you go maybe this isn't going to be so bad and then to annapolis later they would say god dammit somebody better change it right now and you would get all of those things from the same person within the span of ninety seconds and i understand it and i felt it and i think we felt it as democrats all across this country people who are really working to give you know politicians all love a time to try to figure out they needed help now and i get it and i understand it and i respected but i do think that had a big big impact in slow we talk about love both things but to me every day is out their country or what else went up in these races and how my interview with it this ability to not connect or inability to connect to give people the confidence that we really make some progress on this and i would serve in the same regard

say you know people know what is happening to them not what didn't happen to them so we can go out there and say the stimulus would have cost if we had not done that another three million or four million additional jobs and that we can debate but i think that you're an awful lot of economists who would have said there are millions of jobs stay totally do you much good if you're the one about to lose the house second i think that there was a reason no miscalculation in terms of what i'd hoped would be at least a period of republicans and democrats working together and call me old fashioned but that the tone in washington and the inability even on something like we have these big economic issues that were huge or maybe health care where i actually thought it was the opportunity

perhaps to do something fairly significant at the beginning that it immediately walk around and then getting into a really desperate political back and forth with republicans i think coming out of really that session probably the sign were going to just not really be there and cooperate and be very careful here and my dinner in the words so what was a very very fair coverage if you continue to go through the rest of the camp and so no failure to articulate the course the way it should have an articulated vision what many of you said i agree with needed to do a better job the decisions about what to go forward first certainly may have had big implications but that overall economic context and the inability to get people working together i think were some of the key things that grew up impart spurred on by the economy and the economic policies of the obama white house a powerful

force a rose in american politics into thousand nine and two thousand ten the tea party major garrett of the national journal says that the popularity of the grassroots political movement cod both democrats and republicans by surprise initially it would be fair to say that maybe for just a day or two the republican leadership and the obama white house had the same reaction to the tea party what is this and what should we either a do about it or b think about the obama white house reaction in august which was consistent reaction of democratic leadership was dismissive i think that's a fair act an accurate description of the way they reacted to the skepticism of hostility to the health care bill is about a vis vis open that famous august of two thousand nine there was a tactical mistake of enormous magnitude if people are gathering around a town hall meetings or something on their mind because all of us who spend a lot time covering congress and those people who represent members have been to town hall meetings now dry boring and

not inconsequential think tend to be so when they're consequential and their consequential a lot of places all at once over one issue you ought to take he and the white house declined to take heed and the congressional democratic leadership and b does tend to be dismissive and i think that only fuel the tea party fire now the republican leadership in the house and senate regarded the tea party as possibly helpful but not really something that was going to be of enormous concern for the midterm elections but as a tea party continued to grow i met made this point earlier which is i think dvd unusual defining characteristic of the tea party movement is that it is entirely organic entirely grassroots there has been some support of money that came in after the fact that the original organizing thrust happened is people talking to each other but they are the same concerns and got out their catch and did something in politics

that was out of the box thinking for them an out of the box acting for them they want respect it was reminiscent to me of something that can obama said a lot during the campaign especially down the stretch i remember janice you were there but there was a a blistering we cold day at a college campus in pennsylvania down the homestretch couple weeks out raining like hell frozen rain and the president and not the president obama said at the time this is what i mean when i tell you have to get out of your comfort zone that was his presence was opening remarks and they were kids and adults lined up for blocks in this whole rhetoric weather and they were getting out of their comfort ye also said how come there was no warning as it may be you know that really is it a reason i didn't hear it is because i knew he was giving a thirty minute speech and i was doing six hours of live shots and i too didn't have an awning that is probably that other people there did you tell him that the nsa that was

prince even tasted melanie years as the saying goes the restaurant business not my station not my table so many voters who flocked to the obama campaign got out of their comfort zone in two thousand they in significant ways do things they've never done before politics at energizing an amazing thing to watch his amazing thing to watch as we travel around the country and in a way that summer that the tea party but also reflect people getting out of their comfort zone in doing things they had done before and evaluating politics in of i win their own interaction with politics deeper than they ever had before and that energy was i think in the main very helpful tool leading republican says her majority house and if they gave the senate is quite obviously also what was quite obviously of injuries to some of the senate campaigns where tea party momentum tea party enthusiasm picked up on

what rush limbaugh calls the rush limbaugh all rule which he once replaced when buckley rule the way but you're for those don't remember when buckley said always vote for the republican most likely to win maybe not to say the most conservative of the one most likely to win sweet having greatest number of republican representatives in the house and senate rush limbaugh's ruled this midterm election was both of the most conservative republican period that to happen and that's what happened in delaware so in that respect the press force republicans under performing peers were them i would perform better but in the main the tea party movement was viewed skeptically by the white house that fuel their enthusiasm viewed somewhat askance by the republican leadership they try to wrap their arms around it with a pledge to america ah and it is still an independent or largely independent driving force with in the republican party i think the great question for this congressional majority in the house and there's hopeful one in the senate republicans who think they might be willing to join twenty twelve is is there a

republican party with a tea party proponent or is there a tea party with the republican party well i think one of their own element there's no question that the tea party was fueled by the health care issue but at the same time there were many tea party members who are former main street republicans it became very disenchanted with republican way some two thousand six thousand eight on spending and that that republican pollster linda divall and they simply did not one of them by what republican party they wanted to send a very strong message to the republican minority that you need to adhere to republican principles on spending and that's in texas and they felt the republicans have lost their way on that issue so it was a requirement and they were basically punishing republican party and we we did focus groups on this and very clearly the message was the tea party was not going to be embraced as you said sort of organic

there's no longer anywhere i'm a thriving organism that response of different things in different places a lot of states there are brand new voters to the process other times they're mainstream business people who were upset with republican party or they're upset with obama on health care there's no way to harness it or control and that would've been the worst thing for the republican party to have done and so i would say that you know fortunately it serve to energize the republican party because they saw that you had to pay attention to one key issue which has spending and that and if there's one thing i would say about the republican advertising thrust in this campaign this very issue oriented on health care the stimulus spending and that cap and trade and jobs and so there's a very specific issue component that allowed us to reach out to independent voters tea party and it's there's no question that the challenger two thousand twelve marco rubio said this in a speech on election night and it's

not as if the voters embrace the republican party they simply gave us a second chance the republican party has a fifty two percent unfavorable rating so we still have some brain problems will be asked are you good for candidates and a group of incumbents new governors the senators and members of congress who are younger more diverse morphine no not a story idea lacks depth of the traditional republican doctrine and that's been allow the party to change having nine or ten republican presidential candidates probably means a poll on the messy contest that hopefully that will be helpful to in terms of energizing the party and the tea party will have a significant role in our republican presidential process was i have probably three or four candidates in the mix there's no way that the harness and i would say the republicans are fortunate i would say that in most cases we didn't get in the way of the tea party and those who get no economy and in some states and you could say that yes the nominee won that primary that the cost is going to win that state they're not going away

they do have a significant force the freshman per unit that the leadership recognized that they expanded and while some of them and then into the leadership capacity they are playing a significant role in terms of expressing their view and i think more than the alps is going to be on the specific issue out and spending easy vote senate republican leaders paying very clear attention to that yeah we get we actually did exit poll of a tea party rally on april fifteenth that the larger monument for politico pollster and cofounder of edison media ruther and wonders exactly right the people it got off the couch and one out to these rallies or sing we focus on those issues fiscal smaller government issues they're not unified on social issues there were two distinct camps we asked the social questions on abortion same sex marriage and fifty percent of the tea party activists are like following the social conservative called religious

conservative call on those issues they're fifty percent or social libertarian ceremony more in a ron paul rand paul camp like this is no business of government this is where we went astray as republicans over the last few years and it'll be insane see if the republicans when they had nine or ten candidates running the president can stay focused on these fiscal issues that keep the tea party unify behind them or whether the social conservative issues will come into play and break this rip apart i think that and that's it really informed point i think one of the interesting things about about this is that the initial estimation the initial syrup hope going into tea party owns a memo out there in his post show is positive for a role and you know for some us who read them hey how'd i get bumped up and bomb parties nineteen sixty eight by eighteen anti war you know don't wear my hair was cold dark heard a whole lot longer and then and we showed up in minnesota in nineteen sixty eight at precinct caucuses peter fenn dull fellow

democratic media strategist and all these old folks who now are a whole lot younger than i am now but without a metal foot so who the hell are these guys where they come from well we took over the canvases and we spend on politics and it sounded but you know that lead to some real serious change i think that that would be the only thing that strikes me is to throw their customers they're the reason the pew poll which they did this time madonna ninety four and two thousand six which was approval or disapproval of the plans of that in this case the republicans and those successes democrats and note for the republicans well they approve or disapprove positive for approval ninety four for republicans is twenty four the positive for approval of the democrats and two thousand six was twenty nine percent the approval now over disapproval is

plus for its law so the interesting thing about this point is you know i think there's a certain degree of skepticism about the republican party and maybe some of this is coming from the tea party side obviously as well as the democrats that's a pretty narrow window but first tea party rally that i went to the big one was thirty nine forty thousand on the national mall i just decided to wander over there and walk around for a cnn political director sam feist and it was interesting that folks that were there were not re routed in the longer they didn't seem like activist they seem like parents and grandparents and they were curious as much as anything but he talked about their issues were in this was not part of scientific as joe takes a whole arm what i heard was angered both parties you when you talk to the mayor's angry republicans there were democrats i'd yes i guess if you quizzed them further you would find that they need conservative in the lead republican they were you were mad at washington this was in

front of us kept only were mad at everybody in front of that cap on they will they were in the mood to throw all the bums out over the course the next year that changed because you've had tea party favorites like sarah kale and acknowledging and perhaps it was bait they start to lean towards particularly gen x in the buckley rule rather than rush limbaugh oh taking today we have to win the congress and those same people least those that i've talked to arm were more clearly republicans they were going to vote for republicans they were going to throw all the bums out there going wait for them arms outward republicans and in the end it seemed to me that what that period and saw that the exit poll is there is a group sixteen percent both parties have negative favorability net favorability in the exit polls even though the republicans want and if you look at that group of sixteen percent that were unfavorable about both parties' they voted almost three to one for a republican house candidate this time but they still don't like the republican party

so it's clear that if these republican candidates of go for the stand down fall the change they're looking for their money back on the market again looking for someone else and said in a primary those republicans however when he defected general election if they vote the same people are prominent democrats on the city of the third option the republican party may have a love hate relationship with the tea party and vice versa but republican strategist karen hand ready says the gop in part has itself to blame for the rise in success of the tea party there's been a lot of hand wringing in republican circles back to two thousand six of one who was the voice of the republican party because president bush was president he was technically the head of the republican party and i don't think republicans really saw him as the voice and face of the republican party anymore or at least at that was situated certainly declined and then in two

thousand ninety nine i was a you know republicans have our little secret cabal meetings their dinners at morton's right and that you know there's a lot of hand wringing their basic what was going to be the faith that can't be michael steele it's not giving michael steele issued it is a john aigner was eager to step up to the plate to aa who should get used to be and then it was suggested secondly it's really probably not going to be any and sell there's another republican president and in the meantime what you're going to have this it's almost like the ballot process in california it's going to be the people are going to take hold of this partnered that's probably the best hope for the republican party is that people take hold of it and i think that's really what happened and that's why it was organic and to this day i still don't see a face of the republican party i know that i you know axelrod wanted to put out there that was rush limbaugh's the face won't rush limbaugh's not really the face of the republican party sarah dylan's not the face of the

republican party but i do think that in many ways that the tea party has begun on the face or at least the voice of the conscience of the republican party you know but i and i also think there's still a lot of trepidation certainly in washington there's there's said you know the establishment republicans as staff been in washington for many many years still hand-wringing instill fear that the tea party is going to be an embarrassment the slightly better after the election that they did caustic a couple of races that failing i think to see that that positive id energy that they brought to the the elections this past couple years and really i think for seeing the republican leadership in the minority to get back on message and actually have a message washington post director of polling gillies the award energy alliance cousin tea party i think that's a crucial and we talked all year about the enthusiasm

gap this was the gap between republicans were motivated and democrats were not and that played out in all year starting in this town halls more than a year before the election and carrying through on to election day as joe pointed out that forty million fewer voters and in twenty ten than we did in two thousand it involves lots of democrats and lots of obama supporters and thirty million by one count and you're not showing up and you know you have to be motivated to vote in the election is certainly in midterms were so it's all about having a reason to vote or even just being so betrayed to repeated no matter what but amir the enthusiasm gap was a huge part of the story this year and andy the tea party was not a lot of the energy behind the republican gains in nearby can be overlooked i think to the extent that we have the white house and others can imagine the un dismissed it as a movement in bahrain in two thousand nine that is if you look at the numbers and swearing all talk a lot about numbers but you do have to get beyond that there were as many americans who were enthusiastic or satisfy with the way the federal government was

working in the summer of two thousand on and then there were angry he has the same number of them were angry they get all the focus was on the anger and that wasn't the silliness placed the city pollution and you have to show up you know to be counted to be gay and to be to get out of the aisle in some cases and in the moment and it's far easier to translate anger into political momentum on that is no kind of enthusiasm and the fact that enthusiasm and toward the federal government had even more between two thousand a nineteen and twenty ten there was a big reason why the republicans did so well you're listening to a pr prisons on kansas public radio i'm kate mcintyre republicans did do well in the november elections winning six seats in the senate and taking control of the house after picking up sixty three seats at least two schools of thought about how the obama white house might proceed in the gear ahead the truman strategy to stay the course or the clinton strategy to move to the center and kornbluth

white house correspondent for the washington post says it's too soon to say which strategy obama might choose the white house has resisted saying that the key to choose either of those paths so we've i think you're gonna have to judge them on their actions in a non their words and what we've seen so far just the last couple weeks is that they want to have accomplishments now they're not i call them moving to the center were doing small horse things like clinton did on baby get very offended offended when he suggested that he might do something along lines of school uniforms or midnight basketball because they know the implications of that and duncan has worked for bill clinton but i do think we're going to see them really try to get something accomplished with republicans and it look if it had this meeting this week and even though nothing came out of it he came out saying we're gonna reach somehow compromise with them it sounded as conciliatory if any meeting with republicans his band since you've just taken office don't think that anybody on the fact that so it i think we'll see in the early stages at least in seeming more

clinton then truman like but i think we shouldn't forget that clinton didn't only moved to center into small things he also had a fight and the government shutdown was a fight with republicans so i think where you see them do a hybrid of both of those things when they can and they're still feeling other republican meddling they know how much compromising can really get the edge of a question also depends on what will the republicans do because the pressures on both sides are real again cnn political director sam prices this republican congress the same kind of republican convert congress that might present that we had in the nineteen eighty four elections or is this republican congress differ because of the pressures from the right that tea party pressures on republican members there are plenty of republican members of congress and senators who are worried about primary challenges and so does that completely limit their ability to compromise with the president in any way so the pressures on the president were thinking about his base in a primary challenge but what he's worried about is

his base and the pressures on a republican congress i think are are are equal parts to the question that they will work together on some things where he and the republican congress partly agree trade issues and trade deals perhaps but the pressures from the right and the other republicans the pressure from the left on the president i think are our if not equally balanced equally important jim margolis democratic strategist and media advisor to president obama i don't work in the white house of resilience really can't speak for the white house in terms of what they're concerned with that disclaimer i i think also an amateur are both right here and at the president i would argue over the course of the last two years is focusing primarily on trying to get things done but what ended up happening very quickly was an inability to get republicans on board to click through the senate and the senate was the walk so that that focus on how you

actually break the filibuster get the votes on cloture so that you could proceed to the different things that needed to be done in the country that became primarily a democratic conversation because republic it's one point now the world has changed and in order to get anything done and i would argue because the republicans should now feel a sense of responsibility owning the house of representatives there is going to have to be a different approach that takes place where this president reaches out and will continue to reach out i would argue he'd did reach out in the last congress but that wasn't affected because of the decision by republicans to not play and there is witty increased responsibility that republican should feel together with the need to get some things done i think that there will be this combination of work we work together in certain instances making decisions of what can you do with executive orders and other kinds of things that actually

get things accomplished in that we continue this focus again democratic media strategist and dull fellow i think you know jim was actually right on that there were some thought before election democrats and not say who thought that that the worst outcome for obama's reelection in two thousand twelve would be to just be the republicans just narrowly missed getting a year they are a majority in the house so that the words of the democrats are still in control of everything and then that then they could blame the obama way a shared responsibility i think that's a great point and then my focus is as sanders it is a little bit up to the republicans to a howl how much did they want to just obstruct and how much they want to work with the president and vice versa but one of the issues i think that the that for the tea party and for samba

is this whole question of repealing the health care bill what everybody anybody ever anybody knows romo thinks of the health care bill will be repealed one that there is in my view of a because of that the sense of what happened and it needs to be filibustered there and it will be but my point in this is simple and that is that i think because of their base they probably have to do it and go to the house try to get a boat mouth and then began to quickly get off track i mean you want it for two years you can try it but but then you move on to the hard stuff in a sense then you move onto ok what we know about this deficit commission report then than women do about creating jobs and those are unwilling to wind energy and reducing our dependence on foreign oil and a whole lot less then i think you begin to say okay we get something to work on and let's move and out into question see but it says the plea two way street now some of you may have

heard the mcconnell the senate republican leader told a reporter recently that said the number one goal for republicans was to guarantee that brought obama's one term president i have pride of authorship because he told that to me former white house correspondent for fox news major garrett now congressional correspondent for the national journal said that is the baseline condition for congressional republicans they will understand that when harry truman had a very tough midterm and forty six he won reelection forty eight when eisenhower lost control the house and senate and fifty forty one in fifty six with glen lost control the house and senate in ninety four he won in ninety six answers were divorced it was a very important point so years from ninety four ninety six the contract with america and much the republican agenda was not in any way or shape or form court made with the overall message to the party ninety six swords nominee in ninety six neither

john boehner nor mitch mcconnell and ambition of being present in states they're very content to be where they are and they will spend the next two years defining differences republican differences with this white house to prepare whoever the nominee is for a campaign based on those differences and those issues that will create scarce room for compromise when republicans took control of congress in nineteen ninety five a broader rescissions package which is cutting previously our kids standing there was about forty five billion dollars those original proposal it shook out of i remember about maybe slightly less than that the they give the bottom line number the sheer least there's a minimum of a hundred billion dollars the president state has not been assigned a bill that cuts existing spending one hundred billion dollars republicans will fight for and i will continue to be a point of enormous difference health care will be a point of enormous difference there'll be a repeal bill for the house began it will pass will go to the senate

and it will keep passing it from the house again and again and again when it comes time to appropriate any money for anything that falls under the rubric of healthcare republicans will try to be found and the president will fight there will also be the case if there's any movement to the executive branch on environmental regulations republicans will fight them by money and by authorization this is going to be a period of difference make republicans will seek to make as many differences with this president as they care not to achieve a legislative able to lay a predicate for a national campaign and twenty four also hold assad may operate just on the margins mean neither side may have much control over the state of the national economy and the economy was the single biggest factor in what we saw happen is here and this is a fundamentally different election in twenty twelve for her house for senate for president if it were at six percent unemployment for ten percent or four pulitzer and you know and we can we can debate about how to control the mound macroeconomic policy of the administration and the

congress have but there's no question that the economy will be a driving factors of youth when baby other m n out uses to reagan and reagan also suffered losses need two and came back to the indie record landslide any for largely because the economy went gangbusters over the next two years and a lot will depend on what happens and then then there's a clear obama will give you some so much more from automotive an fdr reagan has a real light david cline singer is a republican strategist and he cuts down for incoming kansas governor sam brownback reagan had a record nearly forty four million but most voters to be a candidate for president that actually held until two thousand for twenty years was the language that's used to live in that meeting along with sixty six he believes mobilization so he will play into this you're really sorry simplistic view of what i think the next years ago and eli doing here watches saw our money anyway again republican strategist here in hand reading

the weinstein the episode the underpants known in advance now he's still underfinanced that's step one step three make a profit but there's no steps you hear you know so that they can figure out whether we make a profit from stealing underpants at that this is one easy and i'm not sure this is going to make a start another boy says well ok so president obama's now going you know he's going to have to work with republicans to work together is the step when we're together step three accomplish something right here in the middle is what you there's no welfare reform on the table there's no equivalent of that night in that they had agreed to go building windmills in the eggs then catchers to you know replace all the coal in america ready to do anything there's nothing like there's just that statute is nothing we're if we're in the era of the end of the hymns know and i just don't think that you're going to be awful it accomplishes know there's no step three there's no make a

profit there's no big get they'll agree that they've got to do something about the deficit but there's no way that they agree on how some of that is another example of your step two step three business that you really think director of the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas it think that speaker boehner and minority leader mcconnell managing the tea party members in their caucus is managing is probably bad word that we're on a leading that they've already made some pretty noticeable gestures remember one speaker like maine are reaching out and point some of them some of the freshman members to that the steering committee and to the positions of leadership secondly senator mcconnell abandoning his position on and your marks was rather significant or supplement the tea party people into majors point earlier i think in addition to the next two years they want the republicans' great differences at the getty had that the pressure on the tea party people that only accentuates the necessity for the republican leadership to do just that has to be somewhat intractable into

institutions because of giglio on the fiscal front so the tea party now i think it's a very real real sign i think that they know there is more understanding of the need to do so because it really propelled the majority i think senator mcconnell is a little bit that quite certain obviously because he feels that he prayed people cost of control so he and one other way that you see this playing out is that the rnc it has very quickly so not taking positions of primaries so alike but they didn't for a person personally i'm have young missouri in a couple other states where it's actually saying everybody get in if you want to go or not the new interest in early favorites one thing that i think also gets misinterpreted about the tea parties are going to political neophyte have no experience and that's not true that's true with some of them as that's true with some non tea party candidates you also have marco rubio who you

know it yeah it was sort of the face so i think were on a dull face maybe hope and the tea party candidate who is very experienced with legislating he understands the ins and outs of governing and how difficult it can be another you know rand paul ii had not held up as that his background he understands the difficulties of legislating on and there are others out there that christie no one you know the people that have i think you're going to be outspoken for the tea party are going to be much more sophisticated than i think some of the media or sound and on both sides of the political aisle are giving them credit for but i think if you do have to christine owens in there and the marco rubios out there who are you you know a voice for the tea party caucus if in fact there's going to be this tea party caucus that it gives a lot of credibility and again i think it just keeps they're republicans and honest

about the fiscal conservative issues that but the night i think this is concerning the people were elected from the tea party you know where with that mantel are a crazy don't know what they're doing and that says this is not accurate we have a wide and experienced people and who know what it's like to have to legislate in their home states who are going to say we should never spend a dime even michele bachmann announced that the course the government sued the federal government to spend money on transportation infrastructure of course they said i think they're also being very i'm under estimate again sam find think the tea party really your question goes was that the tea party influence inside the congressman think the tea party's influence maybe just as important outside the congress there are republicans who are looking over their shoulder thing about oren hatch who's up this term and he looks the ricketts former colleague robert bennett who was primary to an end and last election it was a big big surprise going and who would've thought that that department would no longer be a center for months and are from

utah so people like orrin hatch for example will be looking over their shoulder making sure that that they don't make a move that drives a primary challenge and that's the key external influence the tea party or it had you know it had nothing to worry about for example no concern whatsoever the only thing he might have to worry about would be that and so those pressures are going to be there for the next for the next year and a half on on a lot of public and that the presidential campaigns are going to take over as the rancid pretty quickly american of the candidates who are going up bank on keeping that tea party mobilization to fuel their presidential candidates especially in early states with low turnouts iowa caucuses nevada caucuses this so there's going be presidential candidates that are going to want to keep that tea party movement fuels on ongoing the grassroots is going to go away because there and the candidates who want to go and keep the pressure on republicans in congress there's going to be a

feedback loop continuously than iowa new hampshire all these early caucus in primary states again major garrett as they have supported know already the culture is changing in washington a couple of insider baseball ways within the realm of the house republican leadership is finding it in ways it never found it difficult for to find volunteers who will sit on the appropriations committee used to be in a committee assignment the place where you spend your entire career working to get a seat on the appropriations committee because that's literally the direct reallocate discretionary spending while republicans especially those in the same freshman class don't wanna be on the appropriations committee because they don't want to be on that first of all the spending committee because then the judges that we've got to washington you would've spent when you say the washington spent recent years they're caught in a visual icon things if you cut a house it doesn't necessarily get what about our presence that they're afraid of being blamed for being part of the problem so here's this juicy a committee assignment that for an entire career i've just been

washington and that's making any longer for that you would spend six or eight years trying to land a spot on appropriations right now they can't give it away last week jason chaffetz is a member of congress republican side he was offered a seat on appropriations by leadership as he's a very intense of tea party inspired fiscal conservative he turned it down to remain on the government oversight and reform committee that because he chose politically oversight and keeping an eyeball on the obama administrations more politically advantageous for him and going on the appropriations committee that the cultural shift you've been listening to highlights from the dole institute of politics post election time friends and the university of kansas participants included john koen of the washington post obama media adviser jim margolis republican pollster linda divall cnn political director sam feist anne kornbluth white house correspondent for the washington post republican strategist and chief of staff for governor elect brownback david carey singer

major garrett of the national journal and republican strategist here in hand ready democratic media strategist and dull fellow peter fenn and bill lacy director of the dole institute at the university of kansas our thanks to bill lacy a more inspirational institute for making this program available the entire two day program will be posted at the dole institute's website that you don't you don't you die dole institute that overarching and janeane entirety at our present is a production of kansas public radio at the university of kansas