Weather Whys; Numerical Weather Prediction

This is weather wise. The development of computers was a giant step forward for the science of meteorology. Not only did new horizons open up in the area of storm analysis, but forecasters now had access to numerical weather prediction, a tool which had previously been confined to the realm of science fiction. Nineteenth-century scientists knew atmospheric motions could, in principle, be predicted by using a set of fluid dynamics equations, but solving the equations was a long and difficult task. Around the time of World War I, a meteorologist L.F. Richardson devised a simpler way of dealing with the formulas. But even with these shortcuts, Richardson estimated it would take 64,000 people solving equations of full 24 hours just to make an adequate mathematical description of current weather conditions. And so using that procedure to make a forecast was still an impractical dream. By the early 1950s, computers were in use, which would seem very primitive to us today,

but which could still perform mathematical operations 10,000 times faster than a human. With that, numerical weather prediction became more practical. Since then, computer technology has become increasingly sophisticated, and as a result, computers can handle complex weather forecasting programs which provide even more information. Today, computer models can predict the future position and strength of high or low pressure systems. The amount of precipitation a given area will receive, the wind speed and direction, and many other conditions of interest. That information helps the forecaster determine what's likely to happen tomorrow. Weather-wise is a production of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma, established in 1989 by the National Science Foundation for research on local and regional prediction of storms. Our producer is Steve Patrick. For Weather-wise, I'm Drew Barlow.