An hour with Mark Halperin

from the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas katie our prisons and power with mark halperin and came out entirely mark halperin is the political director of abc news specializing in national political coverage including the past four presidential elections and for midterm elections he regularly appears as a correspondent and political analyst on abc news television and radio programs he also is the founder and editor of the note a law that appears daily on abc news dot com he looks ahead of the next presidential election in his recent book the way to win taking the white house in two thousand eight and that's the thing it's great to be year ahmed and i am a political junkie and i love going to places like this i never been out here long and so it's it's an honor to be invited as a beacon and senator dole for those of us who cover present a politics is one of the great candidates great figures and in my career in modern presidential politics are always

have enjoyed covering him out when he was a president can update the nineteen ninety six a campaign i covered full time just add a wonderful man a great american patriot and someone who brought to the political theater that is our presidential process a great love of country great love of the process and a great passion about communicating with with the country to try to win but it was kind of a special challenge for a lot of us and the actor ever presenter campaign the losing campaign is thought of as incompetent a nap in the winners are celebrated as heroes and of course even if the elections whether to close or not and the result there are plenty of examples of problems on the winners chronicled as much the campaign i think that no one here including bill contradictory had some problems and how was organized at the time i didn't have the job i have now i have kind of a weird in between title and i wasn't

really known by many people adore campaign but i did work for abc news and i would call regular gas to speak to senior officials are more junior officials and i would never get my calls returned i've learned that this was not so uncommon i patiently personally but the political reporters are only slightly less insecure than presidential candidate so i did take a little bit personally and then i had a pretty good speller lock because i dyed his name is mark halperin spelled h e l p r i am not exactly the same way as my home pronounced pretty much the same way got hired by senator dole write speeches senator lloyd read an op ed piece you wrote in the wall street journal about why senator dole was such a great man and should be the president and several heart in the right center goals farewell speech armed from the senate talking about how he would either armed go to the white house or back to russell kansas now indigo the watergate so i was in a public speech that he's back in kansas a lot and ahmed a regular visitor at the white house but

he then wrote speeches for senator roland burris was on the campaign staff and the idea was he was correct senator goals acceptance speech at the republican convention san diego for several month period he was like the hottest property in republican politics in the dole campaign so shortly after he was fired i called the dole campaign as i did periodically the the feel the sting of rejection and i said it's an invasive bowl ad campaign and i said it's more copper calling for a senior official to campaign while a name here and the person supposedly was properly can just a huge fan of yours so good to hear from you can honestly do now at the time i had made the connection and i thought wow she's really with might move was a political journalist now how wonderful thank you so much after that call i realized what was going on and so for awhile i played along and i can say it's mark halperin for official estimate put me through those rates over a couple months i was going there and endured some officials would woodfield it burn because they wonder why was there talk in the end up a guy they thought they were

unfortunate and not mark halperin is a novelist and entered and writes op ed pieces but never worked in a political campaign that was as far as i know love was drafting the convention speech and it centered and an ennis and it's a great first draft now will start at it any peril we didn't think that was part of the process and so in the midst of the convention's at a week where the latin the name our tupperware from being liked bolden it'll campaign i was actually worse off than before he got there by radical return by balkan nonetheless id id law center norma miller lite beer i want to talk a little bit about my book and other coronary john harris about presidential politics on bills really nice introduction have at least one mistaken it he said i'd love if you all but one book i'd love if you're bomb or google books and makes an excellent stocking stuffer holiday season so feel free there's no limit for customers far as i know but just talk about the book and an end and i am the environment that we described the book that we think presidential campaigns are now conducted in and then adapted it to the two thousand a reason and take

questions not the questions are always the same dilemma anticipate that two of them that almost always come up and threw them out yet she cannot i don't know if you will say you know the gases so they can hear john and i wonder at a book about about the environment in which presidential politics is that conducted on sides of arment week on the book the freak show and that's not meant in nice way a lot of the things we write in the book are about the way things are not the way we think things ought to be and that part of our motivation for writing the book part of what we try to do is explained some of the darker and more negative aspects of american politics today to try to put some light on them so the country can have a discussion we hope to help foster that you can say is it's really the way we want our politics to be today so in writing about things and saying in the book is we do i that matt drudge of the drudge report web site is that walter cronkite of this era were not celebrating that fact in fact in most cases were deploring we're saying is that it's deplorable

um but we are trying to describe it and as we talk about that book and what it would be like the president won reelection george bush's political career the first five years of national life was phenomenal he was remarkably successful and after the midterm elections and then in two thousand two and then after the president reelected there was great interest in the president and in karl rove his chief political strategist and how they have done it well what'd they know about american politics what they know about the way to win now as we started to write the book month after month on the political fortunes of george bush and chorus started to diminish and luckily john ii had devised a theory that that would accommodate that come and explain i'm what what what had worked for five years or why it stopped working and at the same time there's a lot of discussion in just the democratic party of why was brooklyn able to win to national elections present selections a wider party lost in two thousand with al gore in two thousand for with john kerry what was new about the wait when john and i both covered the clinton white house is the mission

covered brooklyn before it was president george bush and karl rove as we say in arkansas ive been knowing them back before com they ran for the white house together and end up in the nineteen ninety eight when president bush was running for election so we felt we understood something about what they knew we thought we understood something about the environment in ninety two through ruin two thousand four and that we thought that that environment would also be the barman in two thousand eight we want to try to explain the way to win so this is some some people look at her but that said operators are giving advice about how to run well if there's advice in the book it's not our advice on its are talking to the people we think are the leading political strategist america today george bush and oakland are not perfect and karl rove is not perfect either they've made mistakes in their career the clinton bush records are going end up though the same either both love won two presidential race is arguably as underdogs in all four races it's really make the case of looking at the conditions that they have real challenges and winning the white house although clinton

won pretty easily for reelection the only one of the four that was rove romm but that was after you'd been well down in the polls in the nineteen ninety four nineteen ninety five the battle of the five history by winning a midterm election a leading their party to congressional games are minimal losses of bill clinton in nineteen ninety eight his second midterm george bush in two thousand to his first and then the boats of lost an arm well one mid term battle losing control of congress on the grade math but that's the batting seven hundred and fifty oh that's pretty good an end it's part of a dynastic pattern that is pretty incredible bush clinton a bush and now we are going to vote hillary gwen as well positioned as anyone to extend five straight elections one by bushes and cleanse thats pretty incredible eye in a country that fancies itself pretty egalitarian so again the basic question we try to address is what is the way to win in politics today if you want to read some great stories about how campaigns of run by we think we have a if you want to

understand how to evaluate the candidates and the democrat or republican which once seemed understand the way to win a weird we recommend it to your mom but also again if you want to think about what's gone wrong in america wife the country become so polarized wiser so much negativity in our politics and our political media to try to address that too as i said we write about what the way things are not the way things we think they ought to be there are a lot of things about how to succeed in presidential politics that are necessarily from the civic books civics books they're necessarily would say well we think this is the thing that really matters and how to win and that's a good thing but it is it is the reality of where we are in america today a lot of conservatives look at oakland in a success and they said well he succeeded because he's slick is the politician of the generation he knows how to do things that no one else can copy and he is a very good politician he does have the ability as as he the expression uses because of the village thought owls down from trees but he's also does a lot of things

and a lot of things as a national politician that we think people can copy we interview president clinton not just over the years we talk and so much in his presence or canada ninety ninety one and sometimes we come to the back of the plane late at night to talk to us and we literally pretend to be asleep so you'd go away and so now i'm talking to emma breyer actually became president that john and i interviewed him for the book up in his wearing a jacket with your to talk about how he sees things that he's got some pretty definitive ideas not just about what will work in two thousand a i wear like to be advising at least one of the candidates maybe more but what didn't work for him when his presidency in his political career as a national figure when off track every color of numerous times for the bookish a great enthusiasm for the project for a variety of reasons including that they trusted us that to be fair to him a lot of democrats have looked at karl rove and george bush and then apply kind of the mirror image analysis they said these guys are on top and ruthless particular and they're willing

to do anything to win you really learn from them unless you're willing to break the rules the way they do if you're willing to be as tough and relentless when we reject that as well karl rove has admitted to doing a few things and he was a young man just starting and politics is as a college degree either heat that he recognizes were wrong over the years had a mythology has grown up about coral that he is done all the city smear john mccain in two thousand in south carolina he micromanaged the swift boat veterans for truth going after john kerry a range of allegations both from his texas days and end up and from washington in national politics some of those things may be true but we then over for them and end of our colleagues in journalism have no democrats ever have no republicans who have tons of that motivation to find those things they may be true but argues is twofold one is in this country are innocent until proven guilty guilty even applies to political strategist and if it's someone as evidence of some of these accusations we got to hear along with everybody else but until we do i think its existence soon it may not end on these things but the more

important point for our purposes was that's not what karl rove has been successful he's been successful because he's a great political strategist and we tried to break down the rapids long for presidential politics working in fact the first president bush in his first presidential campaign back in nineteen seventy eight what it was karl rove had learned how to do what makes him so good we think there's a lot to learn from everything george bush karl rove is the premier political strategist the republican party the oakland its premiere in the democratic party and despite occasionally having promises as rose having now the bushes of the claims are the premier success stories of our politics because of the premier political innovators they don't do things the old way if the old way doesn't work they think about the country the mood of the country i think about what worked and the book is largely organized around looking at me bush political operation and the clinton political operation and the environment and saying what have they learned about the way to win karl rove is not as some have called bush's brain george bush's a great political strategist is a very smart

man and one of the smartest political decisions he made was recognizing him in his father's former advisor our roads are going to help him get a wide as a delegate a lot of authority to karl rove i won't prod a list everything in the book because again it's the heart of the book that they share in common and one of the things we found as their political orientations towards the challenges of running for president are remarkably similar and and they become and then it ends in a in a political operation of a hillary clinton who has had the luxury of taking in choosing the best examples of what works for political operation today more resembles that of karl rove and george bush because of her husband and how it's organized in how it uses the freak show to defenders a self and to attack her enemies and that's because she's a pretty good political innovator as well because she knows the way to in particular in dealing with every job that's why we argue she says well positioned to be the next president is anybody else out there now one thing i like to do when i speak to an audience which you

normally do at the beginning but for reasons i'll explain perhaps later on to do right now as so there's understand from talking to so if you're uncomfortable voting for your neighbors is islands that to do caucuses cruz does arise when you took a razor and if you voted for supporter consider voting for supporting president bush in two thousand or two thousand for hardesty this is a good a good mid western audience up by academic standards are very diverse group congratulations when i when i so they had groups in manhattan newark where i lived on you know the odds of two hundred people in maybe four raised their hands and i congratulate them on by manhattan standards being a diverse audience that's representative of the divide in this country know that's just a joke that works when i do in cambridge massachusetts as i did it when i was in a bookstore in berkeley calif a few weeks ago talking about the book a pretty good sized that i asked them how many people supported voted for conservative supporting for president bush in two thousand two

thousand four and no one raise their hand and a joke doesn't work as a non diverse group it is representative of the divide in this country a community like this is is nicely balanced and allows you all the luxury of speaking it your neighbors and your colleagues and appearing diverse viewpoints for much of the country that is not the case in most of the trends in our politics and political media and how politicians are entered in the bush political strategy what we call the bush and the book bush politics is geared towards rallying the base and speaking to the committed supporters who are in that and turning them out to vote and getting them to give you money and getting them to work for you as volunteers of political support in a range of ways that works in the political media and conservatives have largely benefited from from this era of polarization we argue in the book and george bush and karl rove wanted to come to washington to make conservative change they didn't want to do what they felt bill clinton did waist of the white house they wanted to make conservative change in that regard

consolidating conservatives support george bush did that by every measure more effectively than even ronald reagan who was considered a great you know fire of the republican party and they came to washington and for five years as i said they had great political success conservative writers they're in part because they're more adept at using the media part of the freak show the media partners polarized there to their advantage they've done that in part because they felt for a generation that the old media what we call in the book the old media television networks the major newspapers are biased against conservatives now there's a great debate about whether there's bias in the old media whether you believe there is or not you must recognize particular if you're a liberal but almost half the country may be more than half the country has felt that way passionately for over generations not not a casual observations up in a field tilts the playing field in favor of democrats liberals there is no liberal version of rush limbaugh there is no liberal version of the fox news channel or a matt drudge and that has worked to the benefit of conservatives in this arid and it's in its allow president bush and and karl rove in there and their allies

to do things that richard nixon who really saw the world in the same way only dreamed about the other republican presidents since richard nixon and until the current president bush were more accommodating to what they felt was liberal bias not just in the media but in the academy ii in the foundations in other parts of our society that basically said there's no way to change it and were up to work around that president bush and karl rove said no we're gonna change is part of an overall attempt to move the country a more conservative direction and again for five years they succeeded clean politics is very different we are going the brooklyn politics is more about seeking consensus it's about wanting officer to be popular in the middle and try to win elections there to gain more power to try to change things at in a way to build consensus the benefits of clinton politics is it doesn't hold the potential to unite the country more the oakland for writer reasons internet not be very unifying figure out of george bush's i think by most measures a more polarizing figure never thought i cover president more polarizing in brooklyn but the disadvantage of glenn barkan says you

don't do big things a lot of liberals looked at the eight years of when you're an illustration and they say he didn't bring us national healthcare hidden brain a fundamental change in the in our environmental policy he didn't change the country in a liberal or direction i think people have forgotten just how much conservative change george bush was able to enact in the first five years before things start to fall apart a promise with which politics are hard at least to that we talk about what is it only works when it works once things start to fall apart which politics is based on accumulating enough power to bring change fifty point zero zero zero one percent of the vote or five supreme court justices just to pick a number of random or two hundred and eighteen votes in congress just enough of the majority however you have to get there in order to get power and then bring about change problem is you nominate harriet miers you try to turn the port security over to accompany affiliated are owned by a foreign government not the fail to react promptly to the largest a natural disaster in american history most of all you continue to

support an unpopular war you start to lose some at fifty point zero zero one percent and when that happens you're in big trouble because forty nine point nine nine nine percent a country is dead set against it other problem with bush politics is you cannot be united or if you are a divider by definition as the way your government doesn't the big differences between quick and politics in which politics and an end to political families quickly just talk about some of the similarities between them because again those big differences should not obscure the fact is you think about two thousand acres and who knows the way to win because you can when we push politics particular pure conservative know liberals done it the effort will work but politics and most of the candidates were running more serious candidates right down to detonate or clinton politics types candidates john mccain republican front runner is the classic clean politics candidate talk about consensus and as positions are more likely to draw support in the center but on the extremes but their big similarities which

brooklyn brought up to us and core over readily agreed which is psychology matters now yesterday it i talk about the same three things in a speech in new hampshire and then a local newspaper wrote up as halperin says these are the three keys that the only things you need to win the white house with these are three examples represent example there's a lot more in the book as i said the beginning i feel some days like a presidential candidate been misquoted in the paper is part of part of what i have to deal with now that these are three things that are important but they're not the only thing psychology matters pokemon dildos in presidential politics like any other competitive contest in business or sports or driving a tenured university psychology matters of both sides have roughly equal resources it's a game he said and that really is clear and present to politics if you if you look at their paw if you look at the presidential campaigns of john kerry and al gore if you talk to their stats about how they behave they were psyched out they were constantly thinking what's george bush doing how should i react

we got abortion robot inside their head really discombobulating to make plays a a big part in enough candidates the word starts to unravel bill clinton gets is hillary clinton gets it she spent the nineties letting that stop insider had that accounts for a lot of her political trouble during that they get her staff now says she is a warrior and this is where my maryland accent kick sand not w o r r i e r she's not a worrier she's that you hate r r i or just awe and she gets all all the leading candidates for her head and shoulders above the rest and understanding that attacks will calm they must be dealt with and i cannot let them discombobulated when we interviewed vice president cheney for the book tom we asked him about this question of did he ever get ralph did this freak show and varma never bother him affect his performance he said absolutely not he said one morning he was listening to the radio the imus in the morning like i'm shaving and i'm as is going on and on as normal caustic way criticizing somebody was gone pork chop support job his porch of their case after ten minutes a listen to this you

realize that imus is talking about mj seide i was a pork chop be seduced then the morning we're saving the attack on national radio you forget this is the big deal this is the terms of engagement does bother with john the night john harrison our anonymous a few weeks ago to talk about the border were talking about the storyline is that cheney's got it all wrong i call them pork chop not pork chop that possible that the vice president focusing on has been called torture but that might've died inside his head but i don't think so i think at and the president and their allies understand the psychology psychological dimension than they now to keep themselves above the island so that's a one importer and other really were near it is is to run towards your weakness not away from it in our tribal polarized culture today it's very common particulars are trying to win the party's nomination nominating senator dole when he ran a manhattan part partly a problem with the sun trade secret presidential politics the temptation is to praise your own party and attack the other side to be prone came into this thinking the problem is you've got a speech in the age of google in the age of youtube you

godspeed to the whole country even as he wrote the nomination voters in both parties are very sophisticated they want an electable candidate they also want you a lot of people in party and even people and parties today are not probably happy with their partners a lot of dissatisfaction with both parties as another inside that opening chorus talk about repeatedly the parties need to reinvent themselves a window plan was thinking of running for president he said my party does not have a good record a reputation on crime on the death penalty in particular on welfare reform on national security he set out to change the party's image and his own image sometimes setting himself in general opposition to his own party ruffling feathers within the party which showing voters that he could be critical of a party that was imperfect it was not a step with the majority the country and some issues he also look to particular demographic groups hunters were not big supporters the democratic party under the mike dukakis banner and god and oakland said look back in the record fighters i met simon brady law limits on the assault weapon ban but i can go out and make my case when he was running for reelection new hampshire four electoral votes but he thought it might be critical or close

race is our go up to new hampshire in our talk a group of gardeners and his staff said and oakland's phrase you're crazier than a more chair i'm not sure that that's an arkansas expression i know it's a literary but back at a brooklyn said his staff he claims is that said i think they probably used more colorful washington oriented for it it's our go up in our make the case that they stop their guns this token what he said i knew i wasn't gonna get a majority of gun owners are people care about those issues i needed though this to go into that the base of the other side that old expression what's mine is mine with yours will negotiate over that's what animated bill clinton thinking about religious voters and think about suburban voters groups that had been support of religious voters suburban voters gun owners groups have been supportive of the republican party in such disproportionate numbers they didn't allow a democrat the wind calling george bush made the same calculation my party scene they said our party scene is as not good on immigration and on education the republican party on hybrids the center bills nominating convention san diego their platform called for the abolition of the department of education

four years later george bush france with a central plank of saying that part of education should be strengthened the no child left behind there should be a larger role for the federal government education they talk about keeping with the mood of the country president bush had very famously talked about how the republican congress is trying to balance the budget on the backs of the poor as they made for some propose spending cuts and the disproportionate effect of the less fortunate less well off in this country again not to get everybody necessarily on education voters or african american voters are hispanic voters groups the tribe rejected that they will make an effort another really important thing if you look at the candidates were running now a lot of them have a history senator mccain again i'll on inside senator obama could possibly run and the history of thinking about how is my party not in step out how i differ from a party about and i talk about that away which shows me to be a stronger candidate rather weaker candidate if you look at our war and john kerry again the losers of our book i'm people did not did not know the way to win as their opponent it they'd make tentative steps towards

criticizing their party but they always pull back they always were afraid that they could not hold their coalition together if they were critical both of them at a record over their pre presidential days of being critical of times of their party but they didn't follow her and i think i think because of falling but yet not the complete list but another thing i like to talk about is understanding the freak show on its is vital if you know when it's it's not a great thing that we have the system the incentives in the system today our forecasts every incentive to be famous to be rich to be powerful to get elected all that is to not use tax as part of a discussion to try to convince your opponent or convince the public your opponent's wrong and you're right all the rhetoric now is as a sword or a shield to try to win a fight to discredit your opponent to get through to render them morally unfit to hold office the politics of personal destruction that is the reality now we argue in the book that talk about some ways that i could change we hope that the campaign is running a way that that that limits the power of the friction but if you

look at the way the republicans in particular because again the system favors them have used matt drudge i as a conveyor belt to take information about people that want to destroy send it to matt drudge shows up on the fox news channel rush limbaugh shows up on talk radio more generally then shows up on cnn msnbc that shows up in a watchman post and abc news that is the nature of politics today will be the nature of politics into thousand eight the matter what the candidates to matter what the press does the public demand the change perhaps perhaps it will change but just how close by talking about two thousand eight hasn't suggested in directly and have been more directly and in one case i do think of senator clinton's is a strong frontrunner for her party's nomination are no perfect candidates here oakland says if you want a particular you vote for somebody else she is a strong candidate she knows the way to win she'd built a formidable political operation she's become a weaker front runner and two thousand six for a variety of reasons which i can go into someone's to ask me but i should still strong on

the republican side senator mccain is a formidable front runner you'll never consolidate the republican party the way george bush did no one is running this year will consolidate their party's either way george bush was able to do or are miraculous feet but he is a very strong frontrunner i think on the republican side right now governor romney a massachusetts is the second strongest candidate and have a very good year almost as good here senator mccain did in two thousand sex and consolidating his position on the democratic side right now of candidates or oral certain durand center edwards former senator north carolina i think of that in a formidable position had had as a better year and two thousand six consolidating his position as anyone else senator obama who i think is more likely to enter this race than not based on talking to these folks i think becomes a very formidable candidate although he's inexperienced not just in presidential politics but in actual life i n the democrats have a number of other candidates who i think could be strong vice president gore decides to run and i don't think he will make it into the race late and i think he's potentially formidable candidate either many other democrats more

than they're on the republican side who i think have a lot of credentials but one difficulty raising money than the same position senator brownback is in our record in public life ideas about what they want to do as president although not as well formed as those of bill clinton and george bush when they were at this stage of their first campaigns but the difficulty raising money it's an unfortunate part in some ways of running for president but having enough money to be competitive to show people that you're a viable candidate now some people decry the importance of money but the reality is as george bush it is howard dean job money people give money particularly internet or make an investment they made it the other guy that's why they're giving to work out but they also make investing your campaign that brings people into process a lot of the research shows that if people give that they stay with the campaign they might give again in my volunteer for more likely to vote are more likely to invest in that's good for the country but most of the other candidates besides the six ein and i think what's difficult in the first half two thousand seven raising money and i think that that winnow the field down on for chile for those who like to see a big deal i

like there to be a quarter an hour media in particular where every candidate was given a chance for that candidates or value in on the quality of their ideas to their island their fitness to be president temperamentally an otherwise but the reality of the system as money matters a lot and in some of these kids will never get the visibility that they'd like senator obama if he runs is gonna take it a lot of visibility on you know was mentioned earlier this notion of i'm a possible of mormon a president an african american president the male president i think i've got a great show is comes up the country's ready to vote for for any of those categories assuming that campaigns handle themselves well particular case a governor romney explaining themself and the symbolism of the first anything is always difficult and there are people with country and certainly wouldn't vote for someone in one or more of those categories and i think over all none of those three will be hampered by bundlers those facts of their life om mani just close by and then take a question by bike and one more story with a purpose about president bush who is everybody knows a

man who sometimes is not just not always caught up with his brain and dumb guy when he was campaigning for president about the first time the second time before the caucuses on our new hampshire the gen x and they campaign rally to close the speeches by say i'm asking you for the vote and it seemed like a weird thing to say and so we've asked is advisors in and they said well we can explain that the part by but we can explain the asking for the vote party but the part i think is is all hard understand although few weeks your president bush was at a bad lawyer for a visitor to double i think it suggests he likes the definite article for whatever reason but the reason he asked people for the vote at the end of the day they told us is because when he ran for the house the only race has ever lost a long time ago in texas and he made after the election and talked to him and i've seen very favorably disposed to president bush and dumb and he said the presence of all thank you for that then president george bush and thank you for voting for because one in the trailer together got an ocean was that he said we never ask me to

vote for you and the other guy didn't he liked the polite thing to do we ask than you didn't so president bush got his mind it in that everybody you and to get any votes for him so i'm asking you to buy the book his three young children that's one reason but the other reason is this if you like political stories of sadness i said that they're great stories in the rethinking and some pretty revealing stuff we did is i set partially right just as we do want we're not happy with the state of politics in political journalism we want the country to have a more civil dialogue we want a president to be paid not by matt drudge but by the people and matt drudge is influences is symbolic it's important representation but also symbolically so we do want to try that people did to understand the bridge of its origins which we talk about the book were to come from ads that operate today an app and citizens contribute to change it some people think it's a bit of a cop out give away the end of the book norman bates has his own mother know that's at the end of the book would we say that yes the politicians have a responsibility to help and the freak show and

yes the press does without question the old media in particular but the public we think it's got the ultimate power here because the reason politicians do what they do in a reason for the press does what it does is because that's what people seem to respond to we would love to cover things politics and genocide and famine in a more high minded way we don't have the economic models and forcefully to do that we need to do our part politicians did too but the public says we don't want another presidential election controlled by the free jump i think the candidates respond to press a responder at that we'd go a long way towards explaining towards correcting some the proms in the system today so i if at the end of the cue renee if you're waiting in line for a book and there's a long line you think you wanted you know i entertained the person in line behind you juggle whatever is oren remember that the autograph ones due out there any day so thank you for coming out this your questions though the microphones are mined everybody no speeches and actually cutting people off of there making speeches interview that and thank you for coming

when you think of the possibility that and you shall we say big money might decide to support it say john edwards because they couldn't bring themselves to supporting or a woman or a person of color did some be more specific in mind when he said big money that i don't understand is that some code phrase now people were you know in the presidential system you can only get a twenty one hundred dollars from an individual that there are these groups of people call bundlers the presidents called rangers and pioneers who can help who can help me raise big money can be independent expenditures i think where the reality is within the democratic party that is not to be a prom for hillary clinton brought obama in the nominating fight i think that i think part of their strength besides all the media attention they'll drop is if you look at the hundred biggest donors bundlers in the in the party a lot of them will be in the

clinton obama camps and in fact if you ask john edwards i think he would tell you the same thing now in the general election without getting too technical i'm in the past no candidate has ever opted out of the federal funding you get a lump sum up that they're sending nine dollars to the federal government that we spend on the general action even george bush who could have raised more than that probably stayed in that system and most people think the candidates who were nominated won't stay in that system and they'll raise money if if the if it came to that i could see potentially a republican getting a lot of money for its own one stop hillary clinton or maybe even brought obama from winning but i think would be more about their views of the perceptions of their views that would be about their gender race impact you think hillary's candidacy will have on the selection process for the republicans well i

think it already is driving people towards senator mccain if you talk to has a static analysis to day based on my talk and as the smartest people i know in both parties today stacking else's today will say it again senator mccain would be any real democrat who's running and senator clinton would be any republican but senator mccain and i think part of what senator mccain is doing to consolidate support today is going to people and saying i can win and i can stop her and he doesn't need to use first day and he used the pronoun the republican party is well aware it centers on the smart republicans including karl rove well aware that hillary clinton could win the white house and that's going to take a strong candidate to beat her and senator mccain has run before and the other leading candidates have not and i have been a mistake to none of the other republicans even that second tier candidates have run that's a big advantage he brings other strengthening head to head polling he does very

well so i think it will drive people towards what the person who appears to be the strongest candidate and right now based on not just polling but fundraising message odd experience i think it's driving people towards senator mccain in a big way and and that's not guesswork that's talking to rich people signing up with and activists signing up for them they're very much worried that she will be the nominee i am i've learned that saying that some republicans a starter attack rock obama if i were them i would think that a strong brock obama is great for them to china because senator clinton have to work harder for this than she otherwise would come in a day we can obama now an inability to do that you talked a little bit about things that weekend senator clinton over the past year and i wondered if you know every a little bit more and that also tell me we think her biggest challenge is going to be an elite is it going to be that she's a woman or will be something else right i think tap into deficits

all of which surprised me a little bit although see your war on i saw them repeatedly i got less of a surprise one is these other candidates were really aggressive and two thousand six started much earlier frequent trips to iowa new hampshire according to lead the democratic party of labor unions donors activists in washington most of them did not take her on directly that that the one who did the most senator warner governor warner a virginia has now decided not to run was one of the few even even privately with activists raised the question of her likeability are so their aggressiveness to surprise me and i think they made real inroads you see activists in iowa new hampshire some donors who've already align themselves with other candidates even before center one has formally declared for the race that that played a role another factor related that was the openness of these activists are looking for another candidate you could imagine it i imagine the world in which a lot of people would basically say i'm keeping my powder dry waiting to see what senator clinton does incredible hunger and you know bush clinton bush clinton is is not something in guilt all americans a lot of

americans are and i think one reason governor bush of florida is decided not to make this raises they recognize that keeping this going as soon as there's something as awful lot of democrats are worried i think wrongly that senator clinton's likeability a lot of activists and so they're open to it and finally they are sort of alluded to is about acquiring city in the country is high it's high in my neighborhood in manhattan its height in kansas it's kind of korea are just a lot of people again about just the democratic party who are they the water turned to the clinton aides you don't want the bill clinton soap opera back in their life they want something new and of course all presidential elections in almost every case are about the future of the oakland as an incumbent george bush's income to try to pass themselves off and did successfully as agents of change as candidates were thinking about tomorrow a bridge the next century these are difficult difficult argument for senator clinton make sense at this point her platform is i knew a guy back in the nineties you didn't get a civil war with the rapid at the economy humming both for me and i think you'll be there as

well that the backward looking art and i think that oakland city to some shop ever come the two biggest challenges i think she'll have besides the ones i just alluded to him a list of three what is she starts this race that with tens of millions of americans are eating her most presidential candidates by any campaign are known by tens of millions of american senator brownback may never be known by tens of millions the matter what happens she doesn't have to win them all over but she doesn't win some of them back she we can do that by doing or george bush did in two thousand for if it's a referendum on hillary clinton the up or down shall lose just as a george bush had run up or down he wanted to continue to present for i think you probably would've lost she has to make a choice selections she has to engage in st louis one candidate x michaela democrat or you won't make it if she's the nominee at one candidate why the republican are you what may the final product and she has which i think almost all the candidates except for senator mccain has is you really kept at the platform with a chapter in

the book called ideas matter ideas matter not just even though there's a preacher but especially because there's a free chip you need to be substantive and specific programmatic agenda that relates to what you've accomplished in your life center coined an interview with the dan balz of the washed imposed too will be here i believe tomorrow a few months ago and said and she may never have a specific agenda she she may just have a series of scattershot proposals and then she supports nothing like compassionate conservative or opportunity responsibility and community new covenant like her husband at home and i think that history shows that recent history but the specific candidates the candidates to whom who have a readily identifiable the medicaid program adding a set of proposals do well i think she's she lacks then add that as we say in the book that is her big bear big absence of of a political machine which is built that having been said it handled right i think being a woman both for the democratic nomination and in the general is an upside to help record and i think you know senators have not done well running for president not for senator kennedy will i could once entered all

virtually without fact but do for runners are senators a lot of other strong candidates are centers are former centers and i would see a lot of political history made the last two cycles i think some things that people associate with our biggest problems are clamoring from being a woman being a clinton being from the northeast been a center that i don't think are the biggest frauds i think she can manage to call rogue one of the brilliant things he did was managed the bush brand the bush brand based on his father forty one as he's called wasn't that great heyday was a mixed bag i certainly in the nineties and ended it got improve a little bit during the clinton years as people got a little bit of bush's delta ii the contrast of the other seemingly placid bush family vs the clintons i think that clinton snorkel and people had to manage the cliburn brand as big outside the cornbread we were in an order at the economy was doing well managing the clinton brand is a big part of their challenge and again campbell well i think they can make being a clinton positive rather negative you just begin to

touch on my question where are you ok so it is a lot of oil what difference does it make what the position is of the candidates senator governor no current position does gov well sac for example have an edge because he's governor or ex governor romney rise against a dozen senators in the race right well in recent history we favored governors and so there's that element governors have executive experience they've begun they tend to events a sense of a more of a sense of authority on they've often accomplished more things and if it had not previously been legislators they don't have voting records that can be used against them on the other hand senators and to speak like senators they can to say things like weakened passed a bill thompson we can do it but don't play that well on the stump is nobody on the stump knows what dingell thompson is and they

tend to talk in general in much more bureaucratic ways the mean again i don't buy medicare with respect for senator dole but you know he would say you know the motion to recommit and all these things that on the stump to work even senator obama knew the senate an incredibly new normal guy in the best sense of the word he starts collapse into that these days you can watch his aides see this and say man we know it has gotten some new tricks or and teach him some new tricks senators seem to have a problem in addition they got to not just deal with their past votes for the senate fifty one forty nine gonna be a lot of votes it will build a mess and when god summer storms and winter snow and you gotta say can i fly i would speak to the jefferson jackson dinner i fly to new hampshire to meet with a union leader at tora bora and then get back to vote because if you miss the vote you might fail el paso he care about or it might be some eighties against you by

governor romney are burial site you know if senator clinton really care about children in families why wasn't in washington why we seek not maybe i one insurer why we see in beverly hills at a fundraiser it's a challenge to be a senator and manager like being a governor yet some leeway although both governor bush an incumbent governor governor clinton incumbent governor when he ran the first time sometimes got a little political heat for missing things and how a former governor like governor romney's kennedy in a big advantage is basically unemployed control your own schedule so it's hard to come up with the exception of foreign policy experience in the post nine eleven world not in significant exception it's hard to come up with an advantage to being a senator or a house member compare to being a governor former governor of the national security one could be key and i think somebody like other bills that governor romney have to deal with that governor bush and governor quinn could write a whole book about how they dealt with the foreign policy credential question for a time when ice covered oakland early when these things start to talk for time he said well i was an internal on the senate foreign

relations committee for a summer rob that is his credential pretty quiet not to impress a lot of people are but they did eventually both find ways to to suggest that they were ready for the job again a nato commander in chief of the arkansas national guard mexico never once came over the boy our window washers commander in chief the texas national guards far as i know so you can do it and that that is the post nine eleven era perhaps an advantage for center like senator mccain warrior center on sits on the armed services committee oslo know your thoughts to be if and when senator obama decides to run for the democratic nomination what the keys would be for him to defeat the schooling and then as a successful campaign for president actual question very poorly scott ritchie islam after my job's to manhattan you're not enough manhattan kansas there was point governor governor romney and senator mccain have already started sniping at each other and they did a peer not like each other and i

know that a list actors who don't like each other i particularly next year you're going to see early next year engagement between them as a dr jasper for a standard on the democratic side senator obama senator clinton center edwards really like each other their staff so far like each other on their issue positions are pretty similar it's hard to see right now a lot of engagement an eye i could see an entire nominating process in two thousand seven and maybe even into two thousand eight when voting started your car without a negative ads without opposition research being done that and that that be pretty are extraordinary but i think it's a possibility because of how they feel better and their similarities on issues i don't think the iraqi war will be a big issue in either nominating fight i think the political pressure the president started to feel after the midterms today with the rat study group report and big time as dick cheney would say come january with

the almond democratic controlled congress i think this thing is going to go in a direction that will take it off the table so the fact that obama was against the world i was in the senate time and senator clinton voted to authorize the war i don't think will be a big issue between them i think to have roughly the same position at that point on the war so i say it you're asking a great question i'd asked obama's people i that's what gets people a question i think it's a noble at this point there are two things i think you can do implicitly what is he can do what he does literally now without mentioning center which is talk about how he's younger than the generation of leaders we've had and that the fold fights and a lot of the cultural and social leftover and and growing of the nineteen sixties and seventies that we've seen in the last few presidents he's either he's not buy practically are actively part of the us and it would make a difference in unifying the country that's what i think he could do and then

he is there's nobody else in the field on either side he's more about the future than the past and center climates going after maker can see about the future even though she was first lady for eight years and she's the most famous woman in america probably and those are two things i think you do but i don't i don't i find it hard to believe he's going to stand up and say centers when you're the past and on the future that is connected implicitly he's not as good a speaker as most people think i saw him speak in new york the other night at a fundraiser it was a sort of a hushed prayer was a robbery but after the event we're waiting for a press conference and to very hard at a new york tabloid reporters said to me and they've never cited is that i'm never never seen obama's speech i was there and i said was that average and they were amazed like that's all there is that's averaged was pretty dry but nonetheless i'm going to say he's a better speaker than senator clinton and out on the stump it will create a lot of excitement she will create more excitement that her detractors think they'll be a lot of enthusiasm for her as the first woman

as a celebrity first potentially first woman president so i think in the end that may serve him well he also will be as much attention as a ghetto be the underdog or her arm and i think it played correctly i'm going to get a lot in the sequencing if he passes for international call the law under the uncharted ever since the word that i think he can he it easier path for him to have momentum the front runner every time they lose something bigger than a poll they lose a prominent supporter they take a big hit he doesn't need to get everybody and i think if he gets a little bit laconic secret said well he could have a month by month some win some psychological wins over that would create the impression that he was the rising stock and she was falling stock and the press at the right time to be there and i will be touring ensuring and maybe force or from the race again i'm not predicting that but i think that's the way it would work in general i can you really depend on who's running against i think in a lot of southern states

if he could jack up the man the percentage of the vote that came from african americans he could put some southern states have not been play in play louisiana north carolina south carolina tennessee on real possibility and i think that's more likely than than his being african american would hurt him in states that carrying war both want so i think again managed correctly that i could be an advantage putting some states in play in a knot putting her for the democrats are not winning states in play for republicans of course as we say in the book the electoral colleges is what it's all about and that's really we've got a focus and sank carrying gore won a lot of states they won north of a two hundred and fifty i think electoral votes so the you know no muscle to say someone can win ohio or florida if you're the democrats and the republicans have fewer places where they can expand unless i think senator mccain is the nominee in which case because he has been a coin politics figure i think he may put some states even california for instance implied you've told us about to be a

potential presidential candidates who do you see as vice presidential candidates would be able to coordinate these candidates right well you know it's difficult to know people are going to pick up our member spending hours as scores of hours preparing dossiers on all the possible people that senator dole might pick as his running mate and they went picked up manny lovingly were derisively called the quarterback so it's very possible that that no name of a politician i were talking about now i will be someone chosen the end so it's pretty people pretty far removed i will say one of my background it's mostly joking predictions is that senator clinton i next year goes to senator obama and says let's run as a ticket now before i won and sure let's raise money to gather not take federal matching on to the general election money without the republicans by the lights came up i think that you pretty formidable i'm senator mccain and you know one person he could pick out the one to keep its push one thing going as jeb bush and really the vice president's bring a

state with the mother and state or any other by but i think jeb bush's recent store nearly popular in florida i would probably make republican the priest fourth precinct that for republicans are not alone might be a good reason he's good friends with senator mccain is also befriends a senator romney sought imagineer man picking jeb bush why is ruled out running for president as an eighties pretty open to running for vice president appears just to pay two names without god knowing who the nominees will be an angry with a cabby out that often these are people and a picking somebody off off the radar who has not been a presidential candidate lectures given by mark halperin recorded december six two thousand six pack a usable institute of politics the recording engineer was chubby smith i'm kate mcintyre k pr presents is a production of kansas public radio at the university of kansas

eight