2016 Kansas Elections: What Happened? What's Next?

two thousand sixteen kansas elections what happened and what does it mean for the year ahead in kansas politics i'm j mcintyre today on kbr present the dole institute of politics post election conference the conference was held november thirtieth and featured journalists party officials politicians and political scientists from across the state this event was moderated by dave helling of the kansas city star he posed his first questions to patrick miller who teaches political science at the university of kansas the general consensus the general understanding is that the kansas legislature of twenty seventeen is not going to resemble the kansas legislature twenty sixteen is that right what what happened in august you know one august you have moderates pickup a number sees the virginia state house at the state senate i ought to qualify like what moderate means in kansas is not the same thing as a republican moderates really span the spectrum from republicans who are re certified be liberal

to ones who are may be bob dole ronald reagan type center right republicans and conservatives quote unquote whatever that means as well different camps as well so i'm going to be more libertarian more christian conservative or tea party different flavors but moderates whatever that means pick up their tin house at the senate and the democrats gained a net you're not all the margins themselves either no one in the senate and wow and how so some substantial changes factions the understanding was sort of commonly album patrick is that it's a purr conservative affirm our own firm democrat is that in the end the legislature is a horse that was only one thing for us to understand what led to the whole mathematical in the senate there's about nineteen or twenty conservatives and forty five am on how well you talk about getting it right and doing you know nine democrats and

then and what's a moderate and twelve moderate republicans there in the house it is about a third of their third again what's a moderate was a conservative how many people have voted more conservatively because after the powers then i might gravitate back to the center now there's probably about forty to forty five each moderates conservatives and forty democrats have gone and abc and say well what's your pet capture all it you know i take it that turks warning about putting people into buckets because i think some of it depends on the issue for example on abortion i think the legislature is probably still remain pretty conservatively anti abortion but i'm yeah it's at i would say those numbers don't sound out of wine i am it be the democrats and moderate republicans have some hopes of forming coalitions of course the moderates may also form coalitions on other issues with more conservative republicans would have it interesting things to

watch is going to be welcome to be the leadership elections that are coming up next week if you go in the house this could be a new house speaker because ray merrick garland didn't run for re election and he was more on the conservative and obviously an and you have to identify conservatives running ron reichman and jean victory who is the majority leader and write minister house appropriations chairman and then bob ross jennings from lake and out west is kind of the the moderate perceived moderate candidate so will be interesting to see how that plays out on if i had to guess i'd i would still probably looking at the numbers give the edge in terms of the internal dynamics who controls the caucus a little bit for the conservatives and then the issue is that the moderates become kind of the swing votes on the votes on the budget and taxes in and stuff they're going to

get what's going to happen in a few minutes but again just establishing a baseline bobby younger you on one thing we do know is that the governor is the same in twenty seventeen as the governor in twenty sixteen and i think one of the things we were told back in august and certainly in the general election is that in some ways sam brownback was on the ballot this time and even though you didn't faze voters is that is that right that the deep was this a referendum in your view on governor brownback or was it more a referendum on individual races the quality of candidates the amount of money raised that well be a political scientists they both are but that baseline to give much credit to my collyer washburn marcus and he he took a woman for kansas scores of legislators and out and they may with the moderate so he took every legislator they got a seer above and in terms of

his numbers on the senate twenty forty that we mention in the house seventy possible moderates are at least around that area when twenty five cents fifty six percent and of course the issues can vary so it's it is that is a big change governor brown wax approval ratings over ten polls they're about their twenty two percent and you can look at that too whether it's one you can keep taxes you can just absolutely shocked that the legislature is not completely democratic the world hands and so we know it's funny i happen but you know i wrote a column race and one two thousand and one mark parkinson hadn't had a forty five percent in our approval or negative one total and that man atkins adventure republican party said the startling and it's clear kansans them support his agenda from back to twenty two percent approval with a negative forty four difference between approval and disapproval it's

what happened we saw happen was susan wagle and a number of republicans clearly look at young smartly politically look at what's going on in say we got to disassociate ourselves from the governor says keep in mind votes this is the worst approval rating of any governor in the nation and with that two governors one in maine one alabama or a broken rib digging the scandals so this is a scandal free governor at twenty two percent so susan wagle in the senate a number of the other politicians smartly held a press conference and said we're going to fix these problems and we don't know if the governor's going and even today's capital journal she said well we're not going to go along with you know he's doing this work that the other so we got moderate we've got conservatives we've got democrats and then we've got house and senate members who work anti brownback and that's another bucket you can have conservative republicans who are against the governor's i was a long winded answer to say this is a really complicated on the governor i

guess and clearly value quickly than one we were we'll hear from was it do you think in retrospect governor brownback was he the issue in these races or is it more complicated than that amount of time to get back to what happened now what will happen and end what whether or not people were in essence running against the cover whether there was or were other things at play he was totally a factor clay barker is the executive director of the kansas republican party there'd be some voters that were just gently anti brownback and there were others that their main motivation was they didn't like the status quo didn't matter who it was that is that his uncomfortable feeling about where kansas was you could really convince them with that one where the oil is headed there for frame or care those force presence may overstay party pays for all male sources pay for the party if candidates want to put on their mail i oppose governor brownback on this issue he had no problem there and he didn't either we asked him and

whatever it took to win so people want to oppose him on particular issues its its wider place of the voters representative andy keeper of topeka represents the fifty fifth house district in a greater difference between the house races in the senate races because the makeup of these districts are so different a house seat is very concise and you really have a good opportunity to get to know your legislator if they're doing their job the senators have a huge amount of area to cover and it needed such a diverse group of people because of the the enormity of the amount of people that represent i think that makes a difference and i think i maybe i'm in kansas at the top of the ticket even were not built to national stuff that i think that made a difference and in a lot of races and bigger raises not necessarily the house races yeah i think so i know it agree with clay that i think that there was a fair amount of the influence of people who are just generally unhappy with the way things are going and evans is the former editorial page editor of the

lawrence journal world it's it's interesting to me that in general people never think of their own represent ever their own center is the one that's causing the problem but obviously in this case at least two in the primaries when they were getting two republicans against each other they made some real choices there about whether they were happy with the job that was being done not to the extent that they tied that to the governor i it's not it's a little bit unclear i think that it will maybe become more clear during religiously jeff let me ask you that question do you think that voters make their decision based on the governor's six years or was there was there something else or you know i think it was a combination it is dissatisfaction with the governors we've seen in his approval ratings but also just a general malaise about the status quo jeff cane represented southeast kansas in the kansas house from two thousand sixty two thousand ten from two thousand eleven to this year he served in the kansas senate most recently as the senate vice president he did

not run for reelection this fall one thing that to me was interesting is that the individual senator or representatives position on the governor's agenda seemed to have absolutely no impact on how voters perceive them there we saw numbers some more moderate members of the senate but begich medicare and again on extremely close races and primaries where you over the last four years and not sure many aspects the governor's gender that that they supported at all on why you think it was so close to what what was it because people just automatically attached incumbents with the governor war because there were just an anti incumbency that had nothing to do with sam brownback mean that could have played roles weren't you yes and yes i think there is very little differentiation by the voters on the positions that individual members of the legislature take at least in this election cycle and i don't think it was on that people maybe said well she voted yes she voted no but they made decisions on that

makes mod give you an example in the senate and jim denning was consistently hour one of the if not the loudest advocate against the yellow sea loophole out that the governor proposed which voters i showed overwhelmingly and polls showed overwhelmingly kansans didn't approve of this poll numbers weren't any better than anyone else and quite frankly they were a little worse and so i don't think there was that sort of nuance what my representative or senator is anti brownback republican this was a program that republicans were going to treat them differently or just ok ok lloyd kahn was just going to say that may be true in some cases but there were other cases and i wanted to bring jason into this discussion says this is his neck the words when we talked to voters on primary day and hutchison they repeatedly told us we're voting against the majority leader the senate majority leader jerry cruz because he doesn't represent us he's too close to the governor about all of that it was in any you know you didn't get specifics necessarily but she did just get this general sense

is thought he was a little too close and of course the new senator ed berger is a republican very clearly in the primer and broke with with the government but another lesson also what did the summer bruce do in the face of this dynamic when it became clear to him that maybe his he was in trouble was a new and kansas city to want to be so jason probst as the opinion page editor for the hutchinson news sources are different dynamic because he seemed to be disengaged was just one of them and the feeling was that he was more interested in his political career and his line that with brownback again residents report yesterday i think in my area down central kansas there was a real strong anti brownback feeling and what is that they still face and what it was at the school were financed problem was it the yellow sea exemption wasn't the crimean what

you're into it wasn't any specific the medicaid expansion was a big issue in hundreds and hutchinson the gospel of ministers were very good about getting the message out on that island and in very specific about what that would mean for community then you have some of your district to want to force it to act that out there are i think what people wanted what i saw that people wanted was not just inside brownback that people would stand up to like there was a feeling that there was brownback there was a very compliant legislature but and we know this to the race for the speaker is going to be a big thing because i talked some more moderate lawmakers married wouldn't even allow his chairs to bring up some legislation like medicaid expansion said we're not going to hear this the hope along moderates is that if we can get different leadership and we may actually have some hearings on some of these items so there's really a feeling in our area but if you not just to get back to that or do you have the nerve to tell brownback like llc loophole

that what people say just let the governor vetoed by the legislature had no will to do the same and they want to do and that's to me the most interesting dynamic of all is it in the face of what was happening what how did republicans react and how good candidates reacted to what did a distance themselves from the governor did they embrace the governor because it seems like a very difficult hole in the middle who don't let go you're know you're a democrat but you run for office what what goes through a candidates in mind when he or she understands the votes connections and stuff are going to be more problematic than maybe the actors if you're an incumbent you try to insulate yourself and make sure you don't make the wrong about john weidman is currently the treasurer of the kansas democratic party is the former chair of the kansas democratic party and with the kansas secretary of revenue from two thousand three to two thousand eleven and if we see that the sheer only people where we were voting out of loyalty they were voting out of tin fiction on a particular

issue and the things that they passed have created terrible problems for the state of kansas and the public got tired of seeing all of the bad headlines you know we're running out of money we're having problems with our schools and candidates than embrace that message and took it to the election i looked at candidate literature or just like lady of because it comes through a party and it says in a paid for by the kansas democratic party and our thirteen pickups with perhaps exception of one ran very successfully on tying that incumbent to a brownback and an eye and into his policies tying it to the quote mass where im at the standards of places like that it will help us understand what a difficult challenge that it's for incumbents of the year kind of in for a dime in for a dollar

to start driving separate yourself unless that people say will you know i preferred someone else outside a common and it must've been a very difficult environment for people who had supported the governor for you know two four six years it was it's a difficult environment are a lot of variations in northeast johnson county and i live in johnson county the republican senate the very liberal and they were being attacked for being brownback supporters of trump supporters and it really got them again clay barker kansas republican party we were joking ever tried to outflank your democratic point a left by bragging how an anti brownback they had been on in others realize and comers they had an issue and they were trying to make election less about votes and more about the people it's very vs johnson and republican versus democrat of mostly about the past you think was what was it about the future of the world were always told that voters are more focused on the future than what happened didn't say like that enhances the issue noble borders or how about a

worldview will help frame the issues in the election and at a certain point that's no longer really mattered and that what they are pretty sure they know how they think the states going to destroy the base or bone off that and then for the candidates or the parties becomes more matter so persuasion of turnout by the people supporter got a primer well i don't have all the primaries right general it was but i mean for the bass for you to sort of observe what the candidates are thinking they need to motivate people of the primary drivers on their supporters to get the vote and paralysis be clear i wouldn't enjoy it but purdue we're talking about the world turned upside down in a little bit early amiga idea that this election was in essence determined by the popularity or the governor republican governor and republican state maybe some of the comet's never saw this coming is that possible that a year ago they fall on an incumbent and roberts always get reelected in job i don't see how they could have seen it as bob pointed out that the polling data work wit which was so

clear and the sky that they're the headlines were you know clear time and time and time again republican the primaries are debt limits teaches political science at the university of kansas is no party label so he happily going shopping and brownback effect is substantial there was interesting is the democrats in the house seemed to be effective in which the democrats and senate couldn't quite get over that i'd like to bring in one other element of brownback at being on the ballot are not on the ballot and that is a giant question that as the night wore on not paying particular attention to the judges that you you know you did see across the state i think brownback court the judges have more strength consistently across the state and i thought they were going out and i'd like to think that it was tied to this this is

going to give three things one was sick with education and second was you're going to give brownback and twenty two percent the chance to nominate potentially four five judges and it i think that was a powerful argument not so much ideology but we want to put that power in it in a guy's hand who hasn't done that well that the one thing that really surprised me about the spring core retention elections was that they narrowly carried in set alton and the four who were kind of in targeted for removal they carried in centre county which given the death penalty case in the car brothers was really really an interesting that's all john hanna is with the topeka bureau of the associated press and that to me was interesting that you have these folks being retained all the advice significantly smaller margins than they have been in the past and really be kansans for fair courts really made that

argument about brownback in ads and you could tell umm good you could tell that it was having an impact because brownback was distancing himself from the effort not explicitly you have a lot of discussions well if these folks are ousted you know there's this nominating commission that will pick three people and you know that brownback even suggested it at one point where you know the governor doesn't have to appoint the person that that's a that either way it's never happened they've always had fallen into for it you know that kansans for just this person who was the main pro amy and james talk about how they want it be a logical of all in the sense of a partisan ideology and and even really didn't like brownback and thought he was a horrible they have to get over so that that was a very interesting and i say you know

well what role did you think the judge questions motivate if you will go to the polls to pick that there was a linkage between ned and in the general between that and the decisions made higher up about i don't doubt that issue alone would have motivated but to many voters that i think that a separate question a lot a separate question that i mean if you're looking for in my opinion that they're a clear repudiation of brownback that's where it was in this selection because that was his that was his issue i mean that was that directed i think it was driven by boat on that was driven largely by the idea that that would give him an opportunity to appoint at least four justices think the job thing was a motivator war or was a real referendum on sam brownback i ask that because we're going to try to manage what's going to happen in the twenty seventeen session and understanding what the voters are trying to say seems like an important an important calculation that so sure that waving a selection was this was sam brownback midterm

dislike two thousand fourteen was brought obama's midterm patrick miller is an assistant professor of political science at the university of kansas kansas in context even when you have a presidential election going on that i think the governor is very popular or unpopular state elections often turn on their popularity so what we saw here with democrats gain even though donald trump won the state is not unusual in the spectrum of elections and if you look at where democrats gained they largely gained and republicans went into the selection of nine state senate seats that paul davis when one twenty five state houses they were defending that he had won their losses were mostly concentrated in those seats with a few exceptions in such areas where the governor had already been rejected at the midterms where you have maybe regardless of whatever you're going to do if they were in the more conservative side ever going to lose i think some people were able to effectively distance themselves in some of the johnson county moderates consulate here in lawrence certainly were able to hold on in districts more moderate liberal republicans were able to

win in districts that paul davis and hillary clinton won a landslide so you can effectively distance yourself but i think in certain places where democrats have the right candidate in there right district is certainly was about bob let me get to a park a report can take a lesson from the resulting clinton's agenda forward to what's coming in the legislature in terms of the will for lack of a better term that rubber band bouncing back a little bit from a more conservative approach and i mention that because we're concentrating of course and state legislative races in and the judges like tim huelskamp lost in the primary to one of the more conservative members of the house and you don't get a sense that kansas unlike a lot of other states has the rubber band has snapped back a little bit to a more centrist approach which i think there is a sort of i would assume going on this now so is there is there a lesson in that more broadly for the rest of the country that that you know nothing is permanent in

politics that that that you know the voters source changed their horns over two years or is this uniquely because of sam brownback uniquely because of the yellow six interview vaguely because of the budget deficit that neither the answer this is yes is a lesson here and some people lose elections is very frustrating of course bob beatty teaches political science at washburn university in topeka because when other people say patients or get back to work you're upset but the kansas example is many of us who were little of a certain age know that kansas has been a cop and a moderate to write that state and sam brownback in the legislature he brought in was unusual and unprecedented for brown back to andy's not be unapologetic very very very conservative governor kansas had not collected those types of governors before

the various am a little bit he didn't cry if you're a state of the state was i mean we're really the nation an but what was said he was elected twice was he would often say or others would say will kansas is a center right state and how they govern was largely right ninety percent right the center disappeared anyway after the center in the in the senate primaries after two years which is also unprecedented place and adam get involved in the primaries and i think that that was that was unbelievable to people that fix for targeting members of your own party and in a political enough you know physically the whole wide and they're not has this primer was i think we were all waiting for the august primary the sheer to be a rip repeat of those other examples of the chamber and others getting involved in it didn't seem to happen maybe we just weren't paying attention well i think they did i just think it was a

it was again jason probst what the hutchinson news they tried the same thing they tried before which was there's a scary picture of brock obama and your legislator and i had one fan because they used it for four years and and it wasn't nearly as scary as this consolidation of power that brownback assembled that that's what it was that i was just an essay hills campuses a special place to get on him and the associated press there was a lot of them afterward in typically even in national media about what it meant in the larger trends the and what it came down to was that why i don't know that there's a really nice way to put it there was a perception among some voters that and that he lost that us house agriculture see and that led some voters to believe he was for lack of a better word a jerk and i will say that there were a lot of

conservative voters that i'd talked to arm who like that kind of feisty personality and didn't see him is as being that way that saw him as being you know the pencil fighter so we should say that that it was him mainly came down to how voters view to his personality so the great challenges is always understanding whether it's the particular of a candidate in a race and everyone talked about the rubber band in india in that in that in the primaries and the general election i think you shot bouncing back to a chord toward the middle again for debt limits of use department of political science here you were way way of a gambler who has been on the right and marshall marshall is a very can eat a quite conservative republican candidate that i was coming back to where i

think the first district has historically been but there's a sense that if you didn't have that battle with leadership us you didn't i mean you didn't have these groups you were you might not have these groups coming and i remember the tedious and several tea party congressman steve king from iowa coming in to help your scan the religious right on the other side you had before we are you you have got a major groups coming in and marshall's be higher and so that really was a morning is that in kansas that the assumption i think until the sheer was if you hadn't or why your name and you were an incumbent you were over for sure even in a primary and this didn't turn out to be the case this year maybe for the recent jobs talking about but also because it shows that any candidate any office holder who gets a little bit ahead of the curve

can be brought back to that were up by the voters and they i think that's kind of what happened in kansas as well and what's interesting about the heels can brace of courses than probably trump was very popular out west when i kept your inspiration clay about how you couldn't keep the signs for trump in the office as i flew out the door so what they are relevant you know indian hills camps defense he kind of has that same kind of blunt brash or at that that that trump had in its presidential race not gonna worry about saying the politically correct thing that sort of thing so it's interesting to me in that environment the voters in the force first districts want a little look back toward the middle though the middle here is relevant at marshall but marshal have a lot yet to form groups hear the us chamber of commerce you know kind of these establishment republican groups behind two points one on the incumbent republican incumbents this election

i believe in twenty twelve more republican incumbent legislators lost in a twenty sixteen again former state senator jeff king of independence the safe nature really perceive say the nature of republican incumbents he hasn't been at that level in at least three election cycles maybe longer than that but i do agree though that that's the perception somehow made that drew the perception is not what the reality is if it's the perception and the second point i would note is and there's no question that the legislature in twenty seventeen it's going to be more moderate than literature in twenty sixteen and i think there's no question that the legislature the last four years was to the right of the state to some degree however i would caution from taking that too far or thinking that the snap back is going to far left we look at oklahoma we look at missouri we look at nebraska those states for about a generation or even a little more have consistently moves further and for the right in oklahoma has to be a purple state

in my lifetime and it's most certainly is not now kansas didn't have that evolution if you look at the legislature of twenty ten and the legislature twenty thirteen they're dramatically different and so i'd i would caution anyone the banks were moving back to the legislature for twenty ten and kansas because i i think the state has moved substantially right of what was wonderful and you were much nicer well our one of stress that that was the perception of some voters to see the president or well educated that way you know in this last election and children's last term he there were a lot of reports of them being so more combative at some of these town hall meetings and some of these function city went to having open arguments and somewhat vicious arguments with people that he was there too to talk

with and i think the thing that cost him so badly on that was for gear which were for marshall worked for like freezing i mean he worried that he's been working at a campaign for and since the last election marshall start working and one of the first things he did was start lobbying the farm bureau when farm bureau figures for crime martial that pretty much sealed the deal i think that's jason probst opinion page editor of the hutchinson news i'm j mcintyre you're listening to k pr presents on kansas public radio if you're just joining us we're hearing about the two thousand sixteen elections here in kansas what happened and what it means for the year ahead in kansas politics if the two thousand sixteen elections conference at the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas coming up unique either as a democrat representing to pee get in the kansas house this event is moderated by dave helling of a kansas city star <unk> know what's ahead and an eleven billion euro member of the

legislature opposite it take two days or three days to solve this project and i mean he did it to put behind those numbers and what what can we expect what what should the voters who has given away on the expectations of your constituents much higher than perhaps they should be based on the results of august i ran unopposed the last election i went everywhere that i could afford the political candidate so the body just it to visit with me as well and it have cautioned everybody that it's not like trying to avoid the iceberg when you're on the titanic or going after turned a step but it's going to take a long time that the big abc and the state is big and heavy and where in a lot of trouble we can't fix everything overnight we can't see except it would take decades to get us out of this hole

we're in deep deep trouble i didn't go from being on the titanic to being the tortoise in here and i think we ought to be here and i think we have to be very careful and very upfront about what our people want this to change which obviously would be the healthy to begin with but let's be careful we can't do not one time and let's be careful and be very cautious and do sensible aggressive monitoring changes and i think that's where the house will be ed do you think and that this and for that people are willing voters are willing to be patient enough for that to happen except for example i know we'll talk about the yellow sea exemption and for those who are not aware of course is that during a pass through that state actors but they're passive income but but i mean you look at this it's always that voters think that's the top priority they think tax reform is a priority and i think schools are a priority

and by the way the judge isn't a peak you're going to hand down a ruling in a couple weeks before the sky high and so i'm just trying to get a sense of what you think voters are thinking as we as we all gather and anywhere i think voters understand that it's it's a complicated problem again and evans formerly with the lawrence journal world and they know that anybody he remembers how long it took to write the current school finance formula realizes that putting man for a legislature expecting them to do to a new school finance formula for instance in one year is it's kind of it's a big ship to move as you say and in one year one of the things that i think will be really interesting during this session is that the relationship between the governor and the legislature because you know he's out there doing his budget right now and says he's talking to a lot of people about this budget but none of them seemed to be legislators which doesn't seem like i have bodes very well for the

relationship they have to be clear he's still extraordinarily important point here and i think another thing that everybody thought after november's all the legislature can fix this without brownback but clearly there's not a roof well eliot obviously they're going to have to work together and that's try to invest here i don't know i mean right after the election i heard he was talking about and i was asking himself how you going to work with a more moderate legislature he said oh i work with the more moderate legislature before and we've gotten a lot done and one of the examples that he use wisely llc tax break and receive morris would certainly tell you a different story about how the governor work with them on that they are not on the tax bill because a victorious the morris he was very deceitful about how that went forward and so i mean i think that i don't know i i just think that there's going to be some real challenges to trust

and cooperation between clue is preferred over from clinton it isn't as if he doesn't solve these problems he may have a different approach do you think there's some give and take possible between the new legislature and the year incumbent and we're going forward there will have to be there if that's possible although be a lot of give and taking on sam brownback would you like him or not what most successful politicians in kansas history by state why they'd resist work with different legislators legislators again clay barker kansas republican party i think he's going to be open to different solutions i think one of the outcomes of the of the race it's importance is that we put a lot of this is in the senate last three weeks we thought i thought we needed a whole those are dying place mission emily last one seat and i think the governor if he vetoes something doesn't the people the senate depends on the issue that they would sustain that veto so he's still a key player in that i think another issue is the the one level up with a new

president coming in he's already talking about persistent that redoing medicaid so why would anybody try to medicaid expansion if you don't know what the new plan as that's just another asked that this can make this confusing in the last piece of el paso office i notice a lot of the republicans the newer ones and one in the primaries didn't become a lot of promises and actually won the primary star alison hold talks an experienced legislators mayors school superintendents and their their vocabulary change the spending more on this and this and this and this became responsible budgeting is very generic comment since take a few years to change and i think a lot of them are now afraid they may get stuck with latino vote for a tax increase it won in budget cuts in the same session i would enjoy your bum you've been through that and but let me clear it for the legislature will be new freshman and they're going to be asked in their first votes relatively first vote for a massive are or could be asked for a massive tax hike that by the way the government will almost certainly veto and so it really i mean it

kind of the new legislature will be a very difficult spots and they are and there are two big problems that they're gonna have facts again john weidman of topeka and whether they can fix them in this session are not the expectation on the part of the public is we'd sit in their fix the problem because they all said his candidacy also be they'll fix problems so what one of the things that they've got if the tax bill that was that was changed in twenty twelve were still in place they would have nine hundred million dollars right now i mean the obvious easy fix for which there are no votes is to put the tax plan that was in place before they changed it back in that almost certainly won't solve the problem absolutely and that's what's wrong with that as a solution but i'm saying that is the kind of magnitude of the problem the second one that they've got is what the courts are

going to do with respect to schools and nobody knows despite the fact that we all think we have a good handle on that how much money is gonna be required if any and how lenient the courts will be in determining whether or not we are unconstitutionally funding schools because if we are their remedy is you can operate a school and an unconstitutional mandate and that's gonna take a boatload of money or is it possible that conservatives are secretly hoping the courts levy huge amounts of we can blame everything on to let you know i think you have too clever by half i like the fact it to what yet settled while ago about where the legislature is likely to be a probably won't go back to the two thousand nine two thousand ten legislature would be the last moderate conservative legislature will move back in that direction again or

debt limits of k use department of political science it is not worse and last couple days of the hundred and twenty five legislators will be serving in topeka a grand total of twelve twenty five twenty four served in two thousand ninety thousand and legislature which was alaska which we really work legislation the last six years with all due respect to the legislature to agree the last four years it's been pretty much an ideological we're going to hear what you're going to do do it now don't do that now we'd be with these immense problems if you will point out you're going to take a legislature that is you know we have our own rookies of people do not have great experience working legislation and you're gonna have to seriously work legislation in committees it didn't have to compromise between chain you going to have to work with the governor none of those things have happened very

much over the last just for the center's jeff koehler says it launched the senate what would your major point about how many employers that will be in the center of the people live when i would knock on doors that would say i'm not a vote for it is there too many lawyers in the senate got their wish because we weren't kansas will be the second state in the union that has a legislative chamber without a lawyer again former state senator jeff king in fact the senate judiciary committee will be led by a non lawyer we have a number of laws we have to change in the state because they require the biggest station in the senate lawyer which doesn't exist and so they're there certainly is going to be a a gap and inexperienced but one thing i would add to that is well is the enormity of the hole that we face if the simple campaign promises that i heard over and over of word a fun capers of the statutory level we're going to fund it works or transportation plan statutory level we're gonna carry a hundred million dollar and in balance and we're going

to pay what the supreme court says bishop in the schools if we even use the assumption that they do the same thing that the court didn't want toy aisle which is actually a lower level i've given the current state of funding than many anticipate we're talking about a one point three billion dollar hole this year and one point five five billion dollars hole in the following fiscal year it into general fund there's general suthers six billion dollars and so you know we're talking about things are honest it's not that one possibility you can raise taxes cut spending and even if there was a change in the income tax people are sometimes miss the point of the legislature will be meeting in twenty seventeen you can't raise an income tax retroactively and so the legislature in twenty seventeen raise the income tax on which i i don't know they will do even on the yellow sea it would take until twenty it wouldn't take till twenty eighteen year about a problem before that so the level of this hole i told one of my colleagues that i appreciate the

next legislature taking away the dubious distinction on my legislative record of having presided over the longest legislative session in history as the next week and be longer and i think you know this is where they have their the cook quite quite phrase consent if elections have consequences and you need to pay attention to the person that knocking on your door sending mail talking to you who wants to be your voice in the legislature bigot we told the people years ago after the twenty twelve election and we told the people that the poll was going to be coming we knew it was going to happen at that who clearly never didn't get the message clearly that this was clearly coming down the road this is no surprise at all just don't know what we get to hear two oldest problem it will play out against the background of the twenty eighteen elections anyway the statewide elections the governor is leaving office i mean

so there will be that complicating factors well as well i am and yeah and the n and in addition to that we're all waiting to see whether whether they're going to be some ripple effects from the presidential race you know does the us for example the secretary of state kris to watch get an appointment and then there's an opening there and then there's somebody appointed to that job by the governor in another opening a month and so on you have you have the issue of mike our players see is the nominated as cia director i saw a republican blogger comment that anybody who's driven within ten miles of which donna last year and is are a registered republican is on the list and that's actually cried out far from the truth of my my favorite part of or blocked researchers suggested that fuel scam that could make it to come back up because you don't have to live in the district represented in congress he does have to be

residents stay world will say and he will see how that plays out that'll be pretty interested doesn't that doesn't that doesn't politics yeah really complicated picture doesn't mean you have people who are you know every time you have a statewide election should not only have people who are looking at the governor's race and who to support whether they actually won a run for governor themselves that you have you know how these other statewide offices that people may or may not be interested in depending on whether they are you know for example if i'm asked this goes for the fourth district seat then you'll have been appointed state treasurer that person will be relatively new that's an opportunity for a primary challenge stuff like that on so you'll have all of that all of that going on and swirling around and complicated it i do want to emphasize i just point though this

because when i was listening to the rhetoric and talking to voters and candidates in october i'm not sure they understood at all that all of the as folks who work digging through this litany of goals were in effect promising a billion dollar a year tax increases i don't i mean they were there were nobody was going around saying you know i'm going to raise your taxes a billion dollars a year the cockpit to do all this but but but clearly people expect more money for schools without question by six months about the interesting thing timmy we when we talk about the income tax changing at and not being able to move quickly enough to raise money quickly what raises money quickly property and sales property sales another excise taxes versus really well and we can now i if i do without that the highest sales tax on food in the

nation in the nation abilene and our rate is probably our overall rate you know sales of that is out there it's it's within the top thirty one of those that just as an aside so is that politically possible everybody in the senate michael reads the kansas city star in the dark i invited my column today because i talk a little bit about your family who five years ago suggested broadening the sales like there is everywhere yes yes and of course it was shut down immediately but if you can't raise the rate may be broadening loophole closings on those sorts of those that i'd chaired the tax committee and none of those hearings and overnight two years tried to close those loopholes with the only fact that they got more they got bigger than ever more often the only thing that is out there that holds any salvation and they get shot for scientists the kansas legislature in ninety two

when we passed the school finance formula substituted one kind of money for another and we imposed a statewide mill levy and we imposed at it thirty five mils that time because that was roughly the email that would bring in the amount of money that we need it it could lower we could lower some other taxes and in its infinite wisdom a few years later the legislature started dropping that no levee down then they began exempting homestead south of it the only realistic way if the court puts it beyond their head to get enough money to fund schools is going to be to look at that statewide miller i was just devastated that what you what it seems to me like we see now is hugh you've done away with revenue and that in the name of smaller government but then you have the governor nor the legislature is willing to balance the budget on the incumbent slash welcome i would make the point that brownback did not sell the tax cuts as

exactly as its lower taxes less government what he said was we can cut taxes we will grow the economy and it will make up first and off of the lost revenue that you won't have to really sacrifice important things like school funding or social service yes i mean it's kind of magical thinking i like this boy sees it was the adrenaline center right but let's also be clear the governor and the legislature passed the largest tax increase in state history in twenty fifteen and it still wasn't enough i think your point on you write all that his incremental and the cuts would be incremental but the whole scene so so deep and so self perpetuating a way that it had the solution has to be something that if a lot of calls like how do we get it done and i think we need to make this point

it is the hole is big it's serious it's a major problem and and there are state didn't follow these tax cuts but we also at the same time do have a genuine swamp in energy production and agriculture band if those things get better and i think i saw something about the opec ministers finally ending they're squabbling and not that i look forward to paying more at the pump it if if oil prices start to rise for example some of this budget problem could get a little better about would have made i think it's alibaba cheering broke that you know one of the things i think really affected brownback in an election before too is this tax cut was not conservative in the truest sense of being concert again jason probst conservative is not doing something reckless in which a drop in agriculture and oil production can affect your income conservative is saying hey we

have some money we have a revenue stream let's keep it let's hold back you know conservatives what's the worst that with that worldview in desperation find out in western kansas that's conservative knowing that as that drops down your house in the fall back onto that's one of the things i think girls with thick and injecting this is why understanding what the voters are saying is so important because he didn't get the sense of voters are a lot smaller government you know you get the sense that they want more money for schools not unless they want more money for roads not less they want the pension fund it as well as i can be fond of maybe some even want medicaid expansions was about iraq so so that i mean that's what so important for the lawmakers to understand what what voters were telling them the shoot i think it's as a foundation points important understand there's not a unitary vote the voters in my district in rural southeast kansas arnott the johnson

county voters are not a western kansas voters or not the sedgwick county voters in my district it was simple we lost twenty three hundred jobs in a county of them thirty four thousand people my senate district dropped five point two percent of its population since the last census five point two percent in five years i lived in the largest selling contain tale in a five state area without a hospital that's what people are worried about wherever they're not worried about whether government's big or small they want government thats stable they want jobs they want to be able to put food on the table and when my eighty year old father as for heart attack in a hospital to take it and so you know you had a very conservative district it was overwhelmingly in favor of medicaid expansion made sense within our hospital women and a few more in johnson county that's not nearly as much of an issue as i think the school funding is that we saw dr that engine so when i don't think the reason was for a large government i think there is a push for stable and bob beatty

the split between rural urban interests is such an important part of understanding kansas politics just point is this fascinating and i have a wonderful pleasure of being with donald trump in april of two thousand fifteen for one of his first appearance is in iowa and where he started getting quite quickly a large amount of support from all types of different people was saying you know what our leaders are stupid and i don't i don't talk as well aware that he did and he was sorry about obama but also republicans anything to your point he said that in any common sense and making stupid decisions and people started that was really appealing and i'm not going to say it but when you look at the last six years in kansas yet something americans are republicans are like we often in the first district that heals can hear why would we turn down money that could help our hospital's dr you know yes it may not be a conservative positions but why are we going to put at risk you know the entire state budget for an experiment and these things piled up images that the first

district and in most of kansas the link between the federal government's putting on agriculture well why is it extraordinarily clear why would we want our congress in the not on the agriculture committee all this question why kids drop in the kansas he'd say mr bob at the trump white no question come in here and say your leaders are still that they're doing dumb things do you agree with him in the polls are showing no no no no that's bob beatty of washburn university part of the dole institute of politics post election conference other panelist john hanna of the associated press for debt limits and patrick miller i think a political science department john weidman with the democratic party claimed worker with the republican party former state senator jeff king and gardner formally with the lawrence journal world jason probst of the hutchinson news and representative any key there of topeka this event was moderated by dave helling of the kansas city star i'm j mcintyre kbr present is a production of kansas public radio at the university of kansas