Seven Days; Post Election Discussion on Measure 49 (prison work); Measure 50 (property tax cut measures)

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it's beans hi i'm stephanie collar offenders to seven days the top of this week's tuesdays election results and what happens next for schools and state and local governments let's meet this week's panel harry a step is the capitol reporter for the eugene register guard column for really is a bbc correspondent awesome herring is the editor of the albany democrat harold and marc sessler lindsay editor of willamette week in portland fifty six percent of those who voted on tuesday said yes to the legislature's revised version of measure forty seven measure fifty one cut property taxes as much as the original measure that is designed to withstand legal

challenges and it does extend whirl hospitals and a portland pension fund that would have been hit hard under measure forty seven mark was measure judy's success on tuesday a vote of confidence in the legislature if it's the right of the measure with a straight face and the answer is no and to be fair to the legislature i in preparation for the show asked them was a legislature bureaucrats of pollsters anybody who i thought might have an informed opinion everyone said do not read this selection as any increased a vote of confidence in the legislative process of the legislature under not also read it as any sort of vote of confidence in bills sizemore i think you can read into this the overwhelming ignorance on the part of people like myself who have predicted that this thing would fail are and i think you also can read into the election effect at least for the substantial minority of people who voted for fifty that those people really did pay attention i mean this was a measure that was pretty complicated that in order to vote for you really have to take

some time and figure out what it was and what it was replacing i think at heart that's probably the most important message that i got out of this election markets are really believe because of anybody actually read this major he would've been so confused as to throw the thing in the trash we knew the language was out of the measure itself as it was printed the moore's pamphlet that and bicycles and by god whistle bans so convoluted that nobody could've understood what actually it said so the only explanation for the support of america really has to be that people believe that exploration out that they read it themselves i don't think anyway confident about i think any explanation was that it would that have made major four seven work that the open to the other part that that the original measure would not have witnessed the court challenges and in some parts and some cases could not been carried out because many difficult militias people believe pay attention to the explanation affected people paid enough attention to a fairly complicated explanation of what forty seven did what fifty would do and how would clean up of great uncertainty

and from ford chrysler because nominally we all believe that but the electorate joey doesn't believe anybody but in this case it surely a fair number of a fair proportion of that was to believe in exploration and the press for example no one thought is with us that if it doesn't reflect the new trust in the oregon legislature which probably doesn't i think it reflects a kind of mood in the springtime that may be related to the season's heard that but i think that that currently right now in the last few months there's not a real mood of anger and cynicism out there and it's always bubbling in songs and to the surface but he compared elections in november with rain starting and where you've been deluged with political commercials that sort of make you cynical mean if you notice the whole two weeks the people running the weather was incredible this is the reverse i honestly think it made a difference people were not so angry at the world

due out today which is a which i think shows that people were having a hard time understanding what this bill now with this measure did you know or what how would benefit them how it would benefit them and weathered man i wanna wanna know if they voted on the measure forty six seven a measure fifty really anti much difference except that there are some little there's some key phrases a measure fifty that does allow the counties in the state to figure out a way to make what measure forty seven requested actually take place but beyond that it's it's it's really difficult to read any kind of unified message into battle because everyone had different reasons for voting different ways two people could be born in the same way for just entirely polar opposite reasons on this one unless someone doesn't real the kill researcher at factory now record rights opponents in nineteen forty seven a

passage that there's another bit of indication that the measure passed written from wrong in every county in the state but to douglas in colombia and was interesting is that those two counties where the counties that have the highest percentage voting in favor of forty seven so it would suggest mean you have to extract a few ways about it would suggest that it's those who opposed forty seven who may have been the winning this margin in voting for fifty as opposed to a difficult conclusion to maybe confidants mean the biggest change it may send an officially as to how local governments a little bit more at least financial forms of such a tiny bit more that really doesn't let local governments are not much better off i mean there's there are still hurting and then they tried to nail some levees so they would hurt most of the recession was that it would save than two hundred million dollars over a measure for a salad or some amount of money and videos a lot all time is that the major had until very just before they like to have the support of public

employee unions to karaoke you're echoing poisoned and that can surely better that you know the groups like that were parked in to help pass and you know the one one of the reasons why it may have passed that wasn't people who opposed to know who who who favor that a voice and really had no particular reasonable again you the way that i think they got very much what they wanted from even if it failed they had forty seven of the past they had pretty much the same thing in asia fifty the butt because they give them the effect of fifty was not quite as severe issue has taken and the hulk hogan's work particularly an unmistakable park marks and hadn't had a snake and pushing hard for in and there was i think a good deal of pushing for that measure along with a lot of local measures that that played into the idea that because i'm not sure i agree with the service circadian rhythm theory of a lot of elections but i do think that there is a general but that there is less slightly less cynicism about government and local government couldn't

even from last november maybe it's the sun and maybe it's like maybe it's the economy destroying communism has has infected i do think that that people generally good feelings and slightly better feelings about elected officials they have put so much money let's let's give people some credit for an older brain is also i mean there was a solemn a film about also made of forty nine that didn't get very much publicity but they get to keep they get some explanation that was simply made another initiative or if you one vocal nothing at all you had to kind of pay attention to what what this thing would do and then there's the prison where programs was one of those certainly for refined and revised an initiative that have been adopted a knife or having to do with the requirement that prisoners work forty hours a week from the educator school than forty hours a week will as it was the measure would not work that is the original that not to cancel the legislature put on a program that that would have made it or forcible well wasn't exactly on simple but but in order to vote for you have to be of the opinion that the legislature voted

that thing and it was not gone stayin in opposition to the measure which is not the case with a fifth i think they're also visited if you didn't vote for the requirement would be to say well i think that part of it is it is a hassle you mentioned that that the people voted for measure forty seven didn't have any interest in really going after polls were sending in about voting and i think the people who oppose measure forty seven also didn't really have that much interest in voting either and i think part of the result of that measure fifty pastors that they stay home and didn't didn't vote because i think what happened was is that people just sort of cut through the fog of the complexity of that memo last seven and decided that bill sizemore wrote a poorly that they're poorly written measure and this one though i don't trust the legislature is written by people at least to know tax policy and i think that voters are able to cut through that fog can understand that one thing has written better

than the other the implications might be a little different than just two people want good policy kicks narrative about spring time and if this is a rational decision i think there's no one explanation for this these assets and so now we i just take a look at what we have in front of us regardless of the reason people voted in there one of the other ways it's been built and it was billed as being better results some sort of protection from lawsuits in the future and that might be an overstatement from what i've heard i mean it has that same inherent potentially a legal flaw in that the measure forty seven did and that is that eventually as this is allowed to carry out there's gonna be some real inequities in the improper tax system and that could end up throwing it into the into a court battle and perhaps venus either non consonant know that little squirrel there's like maybe affect some time that robinson is in equities so start becoming pat was quicker than that we'll see that this

is it's not going to be quite as easy to carry out many years so it's thought the the tax assessors and others are certain and howie hasn't warned people that the taxpayers may be quite late august this year because for saudi the the mechanism really for cabbage and fifty has not been decided the legislature has not yet passed the implementing legislation and from on any indications that that measure to his country for the complex and so there's going be a lot of education on the part of a tax assessors and the tax collectors because of before they figure out what they're supposed to do and how to define what is a password to change even further because the implementing legislation hasn't passed yet in four days before the election they were already changing its own people we've noted before authorities is sort of what persuaded me that this measure was not gonna pass the fact that four days and on the sixteenth of may tom brian and revenue committee chair passes in implementing bill which

doesn't change the measure that we're voting on but certainly create the perception that it was and you could argue that it it opened up some question about vote by mail because i think some people felt that those who have already voted were voting for one thing in this implementing legislation which basically gave more money will get more money back to voters suggested that they were voting on something that's not the reality is the widely held perception in many journalist wrote that was the idea the promise that a lot of the numbers in the information about measure fifty verses nineteen forty seven were being presented you know newspapers in the media as as solemn and they want this and that when in even the people coming up with these numbers are saying these eight solid they tax the measure is extremely solid the key in stranger than any what it says is that there's to be a seventeen percent statewide average property tax

reduction from what that would have occurred if these measures had not been enacted or in others that's what it says on the measure and that's what the legislature is trying to achieve it turned out that what they had voted the implementing legislation those on the table before did not quite achieve it so shortly before the election then when that became obvious that that the legislative committee decided look we got to make sure that they meet the requirements of the measure the song about unforeseen that was not the way it was reported in the papers that i saw that was that the most misleading information and headlines and all over the place that said that somehow the legislature was changing there's a fifty as a lesbian vote of the war in the main problem that people were upset and someone call us the problem really when that happened the problem had started early on when they started making these predictions of how much money would you measure fifty meant and how much measure forty seven that these projections were based on basic information that changes all the time and they came up with two numbers eight hundred and four million as one that measure fifty

was worth and seventeen percent and these two numbers they found that friday before the election were in conflict and in order to make this so they had to pick our twenty four million are due in seventy percent they chose seventy it was a battery of division of solid wasn't a reporter when the water really confused and the one with the better part of a measure forty seven that turned out a little bit differently if they think people expected that the devil majority people had predicted the local taxing <unk> stream difficulty getting any many measures passed it turned out like it about half of twenty two of the districts are asking for more money got it we might revisit with double majority means for those of us who've either forgotten or or don't know just a requirement forty seven that any money and any money all actions not holding a general election have to be passed by a majority of the voters in a major that a majority of registered voters turnout in the majority of those voters boats for which is very controversial i have a question maybe this is too arcane

but measure fifty was in itself a money measure because of measure fifty didn't pass measure forty seven would have been in place in essence measure fifty was a tax hike because neither fifty returns fewer dollars to my pocket then does measure forty seven so why didn't measure fifty have to comport with a double majority well of those because two psalm in the polls but the legislation and cause to solomon as don jon i have to make that can accommodate the majority does not record any language is pretty clear that it doesn't really a constitutional amendment and it's interesting to note that that the legislature is is indeed addressing this issue an area there's a bill coming out of the senate sometime that will ask voters to repeal the double majority aspect of a fifth of that house the house like to say previously you didn't allow something like that on the house floor it's anybody's naturally but it could also be challenging corners of the bargain on democratic it isn't democratic it is and in some cases in some rare cases as long as you mentioned it worked out

but it did not work out easily i mean there were counties aren't are or election districts were on extreme measures were taken to make sure that we're trying to get something and a majority of the most travelers to a protest about turnout for example in linn county that we're aware at the last minute to fifty more than way more than fifty percent of the voters to turn out on a very important law enforcement levee that the marginal for the ratio of approval and of those people who vote was like five to one and in an unheard of a margin of approval racial of approval for a tax measure so you could say that you know and were once once you have those difficult requirement and you and you have forced people or two to defend my neighbors in a very forceful on the direct conaway and then people really got engaged and they understand that then they they understand the complications what are the consequences not passing the thing that then you get all kinds of majorities for four really important measures are younger of a five to one majority

approving a tax measure a substantial law enforcement types of ceremony not only that the double majority aspect of measure fifty worked as far as though sizemore and those who support him are concerned i mean and even in our county in lane county there were several money measures most of which got a majority votes but none of them passed because there wasn't enough turnout when cannibalism and forty and that's exactly the kind of check and balance the size more of his supporters a new diction to explain that the rationale there nina says you point is that if you have a quorum in the legislature than you should have a quorum among voters and you know it's a fairly logical argument us middle of muslim says that in this case you give them by opportunity to vote to send about to someone's house as muscle and one estimate has to be what is happening and what he's trying to hide the election there was the rationale for that

requirement that that otherwise local governments would pick some obscure date in march and then put some big measure on the ballot and told friends about the whales and the sun some tax would get enacted and the idea was to prevent that but you know with male belly and what it's about a way you just don't have that rationale to make sense mr freedenberg you're real question which is is this say something about the level of satisfaction with a legislature out how it is but i spoke with greg walden earlier today when the campaign for the past fifteen years and self a former legislator is that they wanted some surveys in testing when they were deciding to run a campaign because there were looking for what he called a big dog which is sort of nomenclature for someone to class the campaign to another word hustle hearings got enormous credibility states a hustle you want to be the spokesperson for fifty and tested a number of people and there were no big dogs so we couldn't find anybody who would act conceivably the spokesperson for fifteen it's a portable because of the credibility that person said the causes became workable middle sized there was a governor there were school boards images and the governor did not

campaign on this issue that always known multnomah county that i saw of him yet despite not having anyone to pass to associate themselves with you and if you saw or heard any of the advertising and for a measure fifty nine of them said this is something the legislature gave you order something the bill's sizemore is behind a minivan in china does the campaign try to distance himself from the two authors of major fifty years the past you're the message of the of the campaign ads were simply do you want to know these lower taxes and you want to be sure that you get them if you do both from a difficult nice simple clear message probably was the filly for giving their success of the two legislative or for us we rise and citizen passed initiatives do think the legislature will be involved and to do more tinkering and more just flat out there for all have things that voters approved that the legislature doesn't like what you would think that they wouldn't have had the guts to do this kind of thing to begin with because all the evidence shows that that legislative or furloughs

either don't work or just angers people can this is the one thing that that that we're going to see later on the series the ballot measure to repeal ballot measure sixteen the assisted suicide law in any credibility that the legislature might have gained through a measure fifty measure forty nine i think might be decreased by our work for all a bill to repeal something i mean it's one thing to tinker with until i think voters are in a pretty angry about about a bill that would repeal the law already voted on as another measure that may be that we may see some things change the last day or so on that have to do with them and fixing the tournaments that would be a different assignment would be similar to what we've just gone through that didn't work with a legislature would try to repair something that that would work or whether those making time limit supply ms amitai rosen and from different careers and the different chambers that would not change overall limit that people could make the argument that the warriors will would still be observed but you know i commented that is not because i know when the

normal way in the legislature or no idea what i would expect the legislature to approve a bill for december was a bill to repeal thomas for example looked at that as well that there is an interesting suggestion ashley is and in a survey and in your paper her in the register guard that suggested that maybe because of these were for oils by the legislature that might be counted at least to some extent for the low turnout and people were very were disgusted by it by having to vote again on things that they aren't past and thought that they are getting they are getting tired of voting and then having either a court overturned what they just voted on or the legislature tried overturned or the legislature sent it back for all maybe didn't get it right the first time try again in it and then is causing a significant lot of dissatisfaction are serving wasn't in any way scientific bite at it that the answers that we got work a little bit more real and we thought we would get i mean that people weren't really steamed and i just about this point and they just think that they're not be listened to and that they're sacred rite the

voting is as conan more than that when roosevelt all the papers and look at the answer to it is well you know if people do get steamed about this or a fine but the answer is to pay more attention to the site of the kinds of things we're back and forth and adele was warning voices that the telos of conduct this is not a war the way it's a world where the way but the proponents say well there drawbacks here and then sometimes as in the prison think it's just not gonna work that way as as you say you can vote all day that the sun is going to rise in the west and manuel of nevada's like an apple i make clear though that the passage of measure fifty is going to mean a shorter legislative session then a forty seven were in place now not necessarily and you know i don't i'd ask a lot of people about that and that has some thought that might've been the case but actually most said would mean that much difference in that the work they've done to prepare a measure fifty would apply to the work they would have to do to get forty seven ready or they could've thrown up their hands and said well fine we tried to

fix it and then he said no so we just gonna let it the the lava land which it with which it was until measure fifty past and then there were a lot of other ramifications that such as attorney general's opinion and so forth so i think what i did though is it it really did give the legislators get a pat on the back and break even though we know we don't read into the fact that the va now citizens think the legislature is doing a great job but it but it didn't hurt it did kind of validate this in their work the work that they've done and the fact that they'd gotten taken the somewhat risky approaches college this year the gap for a resolution and budget issues in the that the basic laws of the legislature i'm not necessarily as funny of really big issues left it but and the big one being this right just this standoff between the house the senate over the education budget in a couple of the budget and weather that measure fifty would've gotten in the way of that and i don't know but i don't think it did that much to it but what what has done is

really clear the way this long running argument over property taxes i mean once all the confusion is on the way and measure fifty the rates are set in place and people start getting their property tax bills it's going to be a row of there a very simple way of dealing with taxes and you're assessed values we'll be down and they cannot increase by more than three percent of a prominent rate in place so you know from here to hear what your taxes or maybe there's not and that the question thank you i think there is that the bond measures says that of the local option measures as the new construction on your house does come the rezoning and they were there is that he has that there's that a lot but all signs of the house's most a complex big question mark the portland area's you don't know where you know you get this a spider house could double senior year and that carries right that has been eliminated says is lasting peace need tax reform or no way well if not an overall tax reform yet it for property taxes

since it's a truce anyway but for overall taxes battle has just begun and does this get any does is basically kill at any moment in time or a general tax reform laws it's not as it lays the groundwork for for more work to be done on all tax picture and frankly as we've already read the year the proponents of that is this the sponsors of these initiative measures are already at war with new measures that the cap revenue of local governments in order to keep taxes down that's not a privatized some operations of state and local governments are to do the same thing so i think this is going to be a permanent fixture in oregon politics the debate coming as it has been for the last thirty years and all of that that debate i just i think in the cia they kind of battle brewing between tax revolt and tax reform and that the tax reform and all is going to be looking at more of the and that but what were the bounce of the taxes are who's paying taxes and how much and whether they're progressive enough or hit and whether or not the schools in particular are again some sort of stable

source of funding in and then on the other hand even have an area sizemore is another tax revolt here is now taking aim at income taxes in other ways that the state hasn't raising revenue and those two are going to know the governor has made pretty clear that he wants as part of his reelection campaign to be viewed as sort of the general of the tax reform side of the battle and so i think we are going to see coming from his office some real attempt religious war is headed that he may run for governor of course his whole agenda has to do with taxes so if that happens we may actually get a real campaign about the tax issue which might be quite educational touring voters and i think i think the real measure fifty in the budget impasse going on right now and all of these issues that were talking about when they get out a fundamental debate going on in oregon and throughout the country which is generally defined as liberal and conservative on one side you have people who say we want services we want government to provide them and we're willing to pay for them on the other side you have the group saying we're one unpaid taxes government

needs to be efficient and you know we just don't like government getting in our faces all the time and these this these two sides these two camps will be fighting each other for as long as the state will be a state and i don't think we're ever gonna solve this this impasse it's always going to be an argument it's always going to infiltrate every legislative session and every initiative campaigns many likely headed initiatives to be harder to get in about legislature would do anything it seems to be backing way off of the early session promises to go on to delve into the initiative process there may be some sort of bill that comes out that would allow initiatives to go through some sort of screening or oversight process by legal experts so they can tell that the shoe sponsor you know there are some cost issue problem the city may want to look at but you don't have to if you don't want to you can still build on the dollars is less about the ongoing can you hear anything else they were well his time harris data company myer says the house every case for joining us this week and seven days and they keep a watch a good night the

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