Kansas Election Preview

today on kbr present where previewing the november thirty election here in kansas i'm kay macintyre just ahead a look at the race for the first and fourth district house seats plus analysis from washburn university is bob beatty but first part two of jim mclean to look at the race for the kansas open senate seat marshall a two term congressman from western kansas is leading the republican campaign to repeal the affordable care act for a democratic president barack obama's twenty ten health reform law or yale for moderate republican turned democratic state senator from the kansas city suburbs says eighty five thousand kansans would lose their health insurance if the law is repealed so she wants to keep it in place but make the coverage more affordable by increasing subsidies and greeting a new government program as an option to the private plans sold in the ac a change armenians in public option buying the new program back by democratic presidential candidate joe biden would be optional not the medicare for all plan that would replace private insurance oh

day approaches that it can't work we don't have a structure in place and so many people who currently have private health insurance they're happy with that the public option would provide free coverage to some people in states like kansas that have not expanded medicaid health program for the poor and disabled initially asked more yay was uncertain how much the plant would cost the nonpartisan committee for a responsible federal government but to the roughly two trillion dollars over ten years marshall says raising taxes to pay for an extensive expansion of obamacare isn't the answer increasing private sector competition he says is the way to expand access and over time lower health care costs allowing places to be consumers again allowing him more choices promoting innovation promoting transparency a big question is what to do about pre existing conditions before the health reform law passed many people with any one of a long list of serious sort of chronic health problems from cancer to as one could be denied regular insurance often their only option was to get expensive but limited coverage

through something called a high risk pool water wants to go back to that system despite getting some pretty strong pushback and a twenty seventeen town hall meeting in solano i think the high risk pools are the answer to our enemies our culture you know subsequently karen pollitz is a researcher at the kaiser family foundation and an expert on health insurance she says going back to high risk pools isn't the answer you know they were great for people who could get into them that almost nobody could get into that as many as four hundred and sixty five thousand kansans could be a risk for losing coverage if preexisting condition protections are repealed were struck down by the us supreme court when it ruled on a challenge to the law led by republican attorney general lincoln says derek schmidt overnight in pandemic has intensified the health care debate and it's triggered a new fight over how far the government should go to protect public health

law in april hundreds of demonstrators converged on the statehouse million cars and trucks with mortuary particular kelly just a hoarder and other orders that shuttered schools and businesses there a recent debate marshall seized on that sentiment they want to tell you when you can leave the house to get your business is open or not when you can get a haircut and one tells the accused kelly so yeah no other democratic majority of misusing their emergency powers and maybe this works in new york and california but it's not apply here in kansas will get huge marvel of ignoring science and his medical training but not wearing a mask as he campaigns it's been so disappointing to see a doctor more concerned with his political house and the actual health of the people of kansas he also criticizes martial for promoting false information about the number of covert nineteen deaths watches as we should quote respect the virus but with treatment improving shouldn't let it control our lives i can see the light at the end of the

cattle were winning the war visible and perhaps covered nineteen cases had been on the rise and cats increasing and rita we generate not seen since the beginning of the pandemic for the kansas losers i'm jim mclean in topeka today on k pr present we're looking at the twenty twenty elections coming up in november third the fourth district covers wichita and south central kansas to talk about that race not your fellow joins us from cape and you debut in wichita thanks for joining us today not yet well as this has represented the fourth district since two thousand seventeen can you start out by reminding us of his background and how he came to congress in the first place yeah so he was the state treasurer and in twenty seventeen when my company or who had just been reelected in twenty sixteen he was tapped to in a trump administration i believe that is the cia director they held a special election in the spring a runner status was selected as the republican nominee he went up against james thomson and it was a

very close race and that doesn't run isis was first elected he was re elected to his first full term in twenty eighteen and now he's running for a second full term how would you characterize his first three years in congress really quiet honestly he's not stepped out to too much as as a major leader in congress and but he has these very new there and he's voted almost entirely in line with the trunk and he's the his diverge done a couple of issues but for the most part he is in lockstep with a party in lockstep with trump he hears on on a couple of committees that you know it's good for kids to have representation on the no overall heat he hasn't been on were really i'll barely character in congress he's still kind of just falling party line and not not leading to much about any kind of raucous during a kiss re

election campaign has he characterized himself as pro trump i don't see you out on it he's talked a little less about trump this time around and i think in previous elections is that in twenty eighteen when you think midterms as a referendum on the party of the president but he is he has that kind of kicked up that messaging of the keep kansas reddit vote republican up and down the ballot only he's supporting a fellow republicans on the ballot to know from roger marshall down to some state representative and nine senate seats so it's it's a little less trump being more and more just this is the party and he's aligned with it and he is facing a challenge from democrat laura lombard she's come into this race as an bit of an outsider what can you tell me about her right so she actually see you went for the democratic nomination in twenty seventeen choose one of islands

eleven democrats too who were vying for the nomination of james thompson got that law lombard first ran then she child she and james thompson had a primary in twenty eighteen that intense one ominous running again she ran unopposed in the primary i am as a runner status in her background is in an international trade she is just a prodigy's i think of this generation can then pass knowledge and it issues in the area and it has a masters and then a really strong background in national trade and business and actually i believe lyndon and worked in the middle east or sometimes the mill real political experience how competitive it is this race for the fourth district proving to be i have not seen any polls war lombard says some internal campaign hurts her campaign's internal polls show that it's closer than you might think because it did and as solidly

republican district says eliminating any five quake was putting on his jacket and goodman thank you so fur you know a couple decades it's been republican and in the twenty ten election run estis got almost seventy percent of votes so it it may have been close in a special action against james thompson but by twenty eighteen rochester's had and really increased his lead increased to support so i knew i would wager that this will stay republican by they both amenable or lumber that very active on the ground here campaigning and doing what she can and run asked is averaging two tonight candidates campaigning none of that's just because he's busy busy serving congress or maybe doesn't see the need to put that much effort into this particular race because he might think you know that's a clear win i'm visiting the idea flows season with the kansas news service out of k n u debut in wichita not yet pandemic has had a huge impact on the

aviation industry which is a big part of wichita us economy has that played into the race at all but others the other that says you need to go for the streets it's pretty unique to wichita just such a huge component of the economy here a it didnt come up at the recent debate a couple weeks ago that we're the registers says has been trying to pass a bill the aviation jobs manufacturing protection act on screen i'm a mother that led to protect the twenty five percent of employees most at risk of unemployment and that hasn't passed yet it's a bipartisan effort without an item rich petersen of washington but it's not gone anywhere laura lombard it wants to focus on diversifying economy as a whole so that when aviation does that because it has it has its pretty cyclical not just because of the pandemic but the boeing seventy seven x issue last year three years ago

really denton are coming anyway and independent as atlanta that she was dizzy the economy diversify overall she says that run isis is effort just she wants see more employees protected right now as well as a longer term plans to bring in other types of manufacturing other types of businesses in the area that you know can help us ride out the label of it better than we are now i don't agree with the idea for those she's joined us from k n u debbie you in which tell where she's been covering the fourth congressional race nadia thank you so much and uk coming up analysis from bob beatty of washburn university's department of political science but first steven the side of a kansas news service takes a look at the race for the first district there's no denying that republicans have a big advantage in the big first they've consistently held the seat for decades the republican hoping to continue that streak this year is tracy man you is former

governor joe callers lieutenant governor and a former real estate manager it's not a surprise but the corona virus along with his economic and health effects is a top issue in the district man says the best way to help kansans recover is to lose in court a virus restrictions we got a return to normal life normal the male levels for our ag products for the health services for the way of life that americans are accustomed to we gotta return to know more men says he's also concerned about the national debt concerned enough that he's opposed to more federal stimulus spending i would not support larger camps in those packages year more rows of fun and analyzes very surgical in pretoria and do you believe that at the federal level there has to be more assistance thats cali barnett the democrat in the race and a former teacher yes and democrats have a poor track record in the big first but she's hoping to join the weave of women candidates dead than winning cannes elections in recent years on the corona virus she says congress needs to pass another aid package especially when aimed at helping small businesses there is

many many people around the country in the first district that are suffering and we just made a need to make sure that we're bridging a gap for unemployed people but a lot of western kansas employers still struggle to find people willing to work in meatpacking plants of the reforms were just in small towns with shrinking populations barnett says using the path for immigrants to come into the state would hopeful those talks might union we need a comprehensive immigration program including a pathway to citizen citizenship that is reasonable in terms of time and cost and i just think it's incredibly important that we recognize that we all want the same things for ourselves and our families mann agrees the immigration system needs improvement but he says before that there needs to be better border control i'm a big proponent of of building the wall where we have got to secure our our southern border that is an immigration issue it's also a national security issue a drug trafficking issue

of human trafficking issue it just makes common sense finding workers is one challenge for farmers another is the low commodity prices brought on by the krona virus and trade tensions man says the key to helping those kansas farmers and washington is keeping a representative on a certain committee we have make sure the member from the big fir serves on the house ag committee roger marshall is on the house ag committee or kansas republican pat roberts who chairs the senate with roberts retiring kansas will lose a lot of sway on agricultural issues in washington and that makes her house ag committee seats more records i got assurances that if elected i'm really optimistic that i would get to do there are we gonna tell our story we got to have people that are able and willing to go to washington dc and tell the story of the kansas agriculture to a more and more bourbon congress given them a comparable other districts around the country both man and barnett come from forming families or annette or sources should work hard to make sure she was on the ag committee she also says leaving tensions from international trade wars will go oh wait hoping the state's

farmers we have to make sure that we have a fair and stable markets that are being provided fair trade deals that are are put together we know that we export so many of our our goods here in the first district and we have to make sure that that our role in the federal government is to provide those relationships and make sure that that we are are doing what's best for our farmers kansans across the big first will vote on who represents them in congress on november third or sooner for the kids do service on stephen this aha in wichita the twenty twenty elections are just days away today and keep your present it's a look at the november thirty elections in kansas i'm kay mcintyre bob beatty is the chair of the political science department at washburn university in topeka and a frequent guest on k pr presents bob it's great to see you again regular much let's start at the top of the ticket kansas is reliably republican donald trump won kansas easily and two thousand sixteen is there any reason

to think that twenty twenty maybe more of a challenge for i'm not really i think donald trump will win kansas a couple of reasons one the polling there's been we've had a number of polls there's never been a poll where donald trump is really in danger of losing in the poll has never been appalled by them ahead there have been a couple polls of their ranks too high output that way that show it within you know seven eight points however that's actually very common in kansas and i've stopped being fooled by every four years will get some polls in the presidential race whether it's obama and romney are obama mccain whenever and that like it looks like oh my goodness the democrats is only down by eight or something and then they always end up losing by fifteen to twenty so that again that it may be a little closer to donald trump's and when kansas ok let's jump and then to the us senate seat the retirement of

longtime us sen pat roberts means that scene is up for grabs and tell me about their race between roger marshall and probably a says a lot of things going on in this us senate race the first is that this election year kansas democrats not just in the senate race but in some other races as well than they wanted to have candidates that put them in a position where if the stars aligned really well they could win big and essentially what i mean by that is sometimes you get national elections which are called waves and they can it can fundamentally impact of the state like kansas it doesn't mean that democrats went across the board like it might happen in oregon or washington or a more democratic state during a way of what it means is that during a a way if you're going to get a lot more voters

like in a democratic way voting democratic showing up and maybe they're there for the presidential election but democrats want to be in a position to take advantage of that if they don't have a good candidate in kansas the democrats have they don't have a candidate who people can do is recognize they can take advantage of that way so that brings to the us senate race to the democrats did eight excellent job of finding a good candidate a barber boy then she can appeal to obviously democrats and independents and affiliates but also moderate publicans has a lot of modern republicans in johnson county lot of voters up in johnson county and so the goal of boise a is to maybe get some republicans who show up and vote and say well i always vote republican in a presidential race and maybe they begrudgingly might even vote for donald trump but then they vote for a democrat in the us senate and she's put yourself

in a position and she's actually i would argue probably done better than the democrats even hoped with her fundraising especially but her fundraising is absolutely through the roof setting all time kansas records so she's an attractive candidate because she's a former republican she can appeal to of course water republicans because for republicans are going to be seen as too radical by many she can fundraise so she's actually outperforming the republican roger marshall and she says the porters often a position where she could take advantage of very very high democratic turnout going away on the republican side i actually got a sense after the primary if we recall on the primary crisco bach ran for us senate and he's a very controversial figure in kansas politics and he lost in two thousand eighteen to mark kelly that the democrat says some republicans were afraid of color walk up the nomination and he would lose

to barber boy and so when roger marshall won the primary i did get a little bit of a sense of some republicans thinking okay well we've got the senate race because and those republicans are thinking well why because we always win in it and you can get the blame them you can see that can imagine a you know a sports team that has won every essentially every game since nineteen thirty eight you know that they're not using their lives and soda i think boy a surprise them a bit in the beginning and woodley did very effectively is while the republicans held their primary and were bashing each other a boy a serb running tv ads in the summer and reducing herself presenting herself trying to define herself and now in the last couple months the republicans and marshall had been trying to define boy as a radical and they color an extremist and her what

she did correctly was that she while was able to define yourself in the summer no way the mayor may now work but if she doesn't win will we will look back on that summer where she was running ads and spending money and say that it was affective we don't know how it's going to play out she still the underdog and she's a democrat in kansas running for us senate but she is the most competitive and viable democrat since bill roy in nineteen seventy four who ran against bob dole but then maybe maybe even more so if so maybe the most by will democrat since nineteen thirty you know it occurs to me that although barbour bowing is well known in this part of the state that in much of the state if she's known at all it's probably as the person who switch parties do you think she did own good match other defining herself beyond that

party switch or identification yeah what would barber boy a has been doing is that introducing herself as a doctor she even has the symbol for essentially for medicine on her campaign materials that in a year with a pandemic and so we have this interesting situation of the two candidates both being doctors but we have the two candidates taking extremely different approaches to being doctors and candidates during a pandemic it's changed a little bit in the last few weeks but initially roger marshall the republican was almost you know in an anti massacre and i can say he was but he was shipped having you know events where most of the people there would not be wearing masks and heaters pictures with dr marshall you know taking you know taking his mask off and not being xhosa latest

and so that is a very different approach obviously from from barbara boy a soviet donald trump has been ranked you know evaluated very low on the corona virus response would be a national phenomenon right now is that senate candidates are also in some ways distancing themselves from donald trump so roger marshall during the primary was very much attached to donald trump as work all the candidates let's be honest the sun during the primary that was a key focus roger marshall and donald trump and we're not saying that anymore he's not doing anything too covertly distance himself but is also not showing you know or tv ads with him in and donald trump and that's probably because you know donald trump and took his many of his poll numbers are down on the krona buyers and iran in the name of fairness i said awesome and sinbad jason buckley is running for that us senate seat as a libertarian candidate let's turn our attention to the second

congressional district this is the seat where stephen watkins is currently serving he lost in the primary little background on the second district their second district two years ago and two thousand eighteen was incredibly competitive and one of the reasons was was that the republican nominee was steep watkins and he just was not highly regarded by his own party to the democrat paul davis pretty much almost wanting were talking a handful of votes but he didn't win so democrats looked at that district and again democrats said if we have a good candidate and there's a wave and the stars align it's possible to win it's a tuxedo still republican district so everything good has to happen for democrats for them to win and they did get the democrats to get a good candidate and michelle delays of the mayor of topeka

on the republican side so watkins continued to be a weak incumbent eventually resulting in them criminal charges being made against him for illegally voting in iowa city council action in topeka among other things that was that was the major one so state treasurer kansas state treasury to quit turner took them on the primary and beat watkins pretty handily obviously republicans in the second district hasn't had enough of water cannons and also they thought he might be weak and running against a lace on sola turner is a very strong candidate you know conservative again the party registration is in republicans' favor in the second district and it's been a contentious race i eat even though some

claim that she wasn't that surprised it looks as if they're laced was a little surprised at how negative turner has banned but she should live and how republicans are used to winning in kansas and i'm so baleful round and so the campaign got very negative just about a couple weeks ago and recently daily sly gave a press conference in which she was said she was very upset about the slide campaign that began should've been expected daley says can be the underdog in this for fundraising has been pretty good so she's got some resources it's it's still been a bb toffee and she's a little bit on her heels from le turner's possibly possibly very effective negative tv ads so what issues have really an affront and center in this second congressional race the second district race is similar to the kansas us senate race and that the issues might tend to

be more or as symbolic about the style of the candidates so i'm michelle daily something america began has had to deal with a police force you know with the topeka city council and she's unmarried she shares that she is she's part of voting for numerous signs and working with the police chief and the city manager and also nuts and bolts things and so during the un after the george george ford murder you know she marched and the end of march and topeka along with the police chief and she also has dealt with policing issues and setting up oversight of that because police are doing all sorts of things budgetary deals and she's talked about the term defunding noun defunding in many ways are usually means re allocating so you can actually and this is true quote defund your police and they get more money and you're like what

they did the term is is probably always from the get go been all really should be reformed or to your change or reallocate a rethink but defund it has been seized upon by republicans to literally convince people that it means taking money away from postcards so the issue technically is police reform but it's been caught up and really just have the debate about what the fund meetings and so michele daylight esau has tried to explain what she means by defunding or as le turner has push this idea that she's he's argued he's a radical because she wants to defund hoping people think that means she doesn't like the police and she wants to take money away from them when actually when you look at her record in with police in topeka has been very friendly and she's worked with the police chief on a lot of different things but you notice immediately enter the camp and that a negative

campaign it's sad it's hard it it seems like it's been hard for her to get out of that realm whirlpool and actually two to actually really just discussed the issue the actual discussion of police reform seems to have been lost and these men in this negative campaign anything else about that second district race united so i think one of the keys for the second district race in the waning days will be if they like a slut can respond to the turner a barber boy a has been able to respond to marshal incredibly quickly we haven't seen that yet from the voice is a tv ads because that's where yoda do it and we haven't seen it yet and that may be the key to the campaign and she's able to you'll recover her footing but let's turn our attention to the third district where she raised david's is the income and she's running against amanda at cannes i'm sure is david's won that seat he

and twenty eighteen how would you characterize her first two years in congress well actually the republicans put themselves in a banana box of a bind because two years ago they ran you know they ran again sure is david's and later wanted to define her as a radical and so she went to dc and just was not a radical in fact it's also a personal style ironically someone who isn't mm a fighter mixed martial arts is actually a small c conservative person police are public persona she comes across as not radical and so many of her constituents including my republicans watching her over the two years you know she's been able to i think help bolster the idea that she's not a radical end and so she put herself in a very good position to win reelection the

other thing is that many voters in the third district come from johnson county and hillary clinton won johnson county kevin yoder the republicans lost in two thousand eighteen johnson county trump is not popular in johnson county and has a lot of voters they're so that's a there's a lot of republicans but it's not a super conservative republican district so certainly is an opportunity for sharif status to do well the interesting thing about the third district this time around his republicans nominated demand adkins who used to work for former kansas governor sam brownback and so sure is david's has several ads out that feature sam brownback which is yasmine governor now for a few years so it's kind of old home week but it's interesting that they still think its of his effectiveness as a foil and the other thing is that trees david has been running hard on krona buyers and dealing with that and being

safe and being you know cautious with the following cdc guidelines and again that now is a probably a good issue to run on but also bolsters this idea that she's not a radical that that she's a you know someone who's now wins a cautious but certainly someone who couldn't she can argue as trustworthy during a pandemic bob thank you so much for your input and insight into their twenty twenty elections church taught will check back with you after november third that's bob beatty he's the chair of the political science department at washburn university in topeka a longer version of our conversation including analysis of the first and fourth congressional races is available at our website kansas public radio dot org special thanks to stephen koranda i've even wilkerson haberman not your fellow jim

mclean and stephen both aha for contributing to today's program be sure to tune in november third for a lively election night coverage on kansas public radio will be reporting on the kansas races and will hear national coverage from npr i'm kay mcintyre kbr prisons is a production of kansas public radio at the university of kansas and next week on kbr presents the closing of the kansas hospital and the ripple effect on the economy the culture and wellbeing of the whole town it's the first in a seven part series where it hurts from kaiser news service that says this time next week on kansas public radio piece