Walt Rostow disscusses the fundamental basics of geo-politics in 1968

well you know the problem at the revolution that were involved here and what we're doing is a curious one that reminds me a little as as i go through what i think freud said in one of his biographies working on his own fear and what he is he found so sometimes as the foreign minister has struck by the thought that all he was saying was what every they didn't always know you about sexuality in an eritrean human personality we're doing here is taking a soda propositions which every historically are serious statement given situation knows is true and politics really cannot be looked at six unless it's related to go from welfare the one hand for policy on it the problem is that our

formal thought about politics as we break it up into and they'll graduate schools and give people reasons for that and the formal area political science tends to forget that commonsense will fight which any historic in those or any working politician knows i mean any anybody looks united states in nineteen sixty eight or france in nineteen sixty eight or mouse problem in china and the struggle airport those choices about who knows that you've got to look at politics and something like these three ways and one of things if confirmed at nyu received a lot of this is lincoln's death threat in that chair blocking phrase i use the choices that were made by society's right but as i have the privilege of sitting for example in all the

use white fifty one than fifty eight and listening to chiefs of government exchange with great candor which they do but their problems are was triangles to so publicly what living politics is about is what living politics is about when you go back to the cambridge history of the greeks or the wisest of men on the romans the problem is that our structures of thought about political science and appeared what we all know of common sense of history should be the structure and what we're doing here at the extent that it's it's noon and potentially revolutionary is simply forcing a way of looking at politics which makes you look at that tries from the beginning and never never permits this if we talk about one part to check out the other parts and the other thing that we're getting that that is it is no dessert using early stages of

growth as a way of trying to get a weapon for re rendering dynamic and improper analysis politics which otherwise is static or can be dealt with only one searching but its us but i think you've got to do that to look at the end of this trial and that part of it and the kind of sweep in and i do believe that stages of roses wraps up the only way you could render the system it's one way to turn let's get back to evolve catcher meetings for next time what i'm gonna do next time is something that one of our viewers and the university has been following this and

microwave urged me to do essentially what you need at the united states were kept away from united states because you know so much about and but i didn't think that we might take a quick look next time at what this road the dynamics of american politics looks like if you look at it through this prism of the state law and then we'll get it but i think you need to do if you get the ag high mass consumption which we pioneer in nineteen twenties and up everyone love other folks are now welcome back to a subject we ended up well as i say talking about the temptations of them japanese militarists in nineteen thirty nine nineteen forty one the underlining that what we're talking about is the idea of a framework which tempted them not be a cause in the same sense that it had to happen

than underlining a hitler's madness is as a factor that was taken to come in history as it happens now i come to stalin's temptation of nineteen forty six the soviet union after the second world war obviously faced a choice it was offered out of the diplomacy of the war itself a place as one of the great powers at a party world influence to reform the united nations and for the maintenance of the british us soviet back down and the whole structure of the un was based on the hope that somehow the wartime alliance would hope altogether he could have a company that

policy with a focusing of soviet resources reconstruction the country and the rapid expansion in the welfare of the soviet people's in a famous speech of february nineteen forty six he announced his decision of the world they move in effect that this was a period of great opportunity for the expansion of soviet power many of the situation that existed there is of indicated here western europe was weakened leisurely the soviet union and japan was weakened of an under us occupation west germany that ms weaken britain although still having a very great industrial establishment was still weakened by the war and committed to welfare state the entire

store and decided to just rubble i think his calculus was based on these things first see if he could get an ambiguous soviet control of eastern europe down to the elk so the wartime record show that about seventy percent of all of the wartime diplomacy among the big three was on one issue was the political freedom of poland and stalin moved very cautiously indeed after the war to consolidate eastern europe he sat trump's reaction to try to stay in northern azerbaijan he knew the weakness of russia he didn't want a war and so the takeover of eastern europe did not appear and forty five or forty six hundred and forty eight and people forget that there was a small holders

small landholders government in hungary there was a democratic government in texas walking down with every forty eight there was it wasn't till really forty seven earlier that they felt confident to rig the polish elections which they did and then to consolidate the kindest almost ruined and forty eight in poland i was through going forward through eastern europe that in the course of this of course he triggered the near independence of yugoslavia in early forty eight but was watching to see the american reaction i myself do not think that he would've proceeded to take over eastern europe if united states had reacted strongly against it and stood by up to the point of meaning it militarily a wartime commitments that there is no political base in united states in either party for doing that but they're for what it's worth my own judgment and in the book i wrote the interstates

more green and it is my judgment that time so i felt rather more freedom if this was simply an ex post it was the cold war was not inevitable split of europe was not in welcome back to what was a united states but they see that what he said is a top priority at his second priority was of course the two and see if i have the communist parties in france and in italy he could not takeover the west the west was an extremely disheveled condition there's a famous meeting in moscow in i believe march of nineteen forty seven when general marshall insect the state is that the team to discuss the german questions of extremely able to stall and salt george marshall marshall reported to this team that it into the greatest pretty surprising respect that stalin reported and had referred to the admiration that the stalin

had four marshall for his insistence on the second front and the brilliance and courage of this direct assault on the mainland of europe and to work for but in effect what marshall drew from what stalin told him what is he told me that how could he negotiated settlement in germany when western europe was falling a park behind you even more to flesh and blood and bear any case it was a cable sent by george marshall to the state department in the wake of that conversation that started the marshall plan you know and we would never again negotiate with the russians from this kind of a position how can listen to it at a certain time you're standing on one of the least he thought stalin was telling voters canada communications dylan made he had hopes and other words and ads i say this because as in all the other maps that we've show the year uncertainty about the united states in what was do

i think have a lot to do with the cold war and spread of europe the o oh there's another element which i think this tragic and one of the most unfortunate statements ever made by a chief us government to the government at tehran and rows of people stalin but he did not believe the united states was capable of keeping troops in europe for more than two years after the war now this was based on i'm sure on franklin roosevelt's memories of the reaction the united states nineteen twenty of which he was a personal victim he was the vice presidential candidate democratic party in and saw a profound desire for normalcy and so on that took us is really on the leading nations laid the framework for much tragedy that followed and he expected that kind of reaction he thought somehow the building getting united states into the eu and would be

stabilizing but stalin town of divisions entirely undoubtedly said well two years that's not very long for me to wake of the blind lawyer under the american forces because if you look at this map you'll see that well japan of course whatever power it had was us power after the war based on us at the edge of the fabric or western germany didn't represent western europe didn't represent anything serious for stalin were about in terms of power because it was fragmented and first and how much the army and retired it was the link to the united states that was critical to his evaluation of the block in western europe an effect in roseville polio in with two years to win on the league two years and the what he actually did was to probe around and all finally decided forty eight he could go with eastern europe and get away with it which he proceeded to do although people broke off his hand so it was this quest this question mark about the us now fact air as so often with arnett performance

as a nation is different from what it but it looks to be a channel could write about the whole plans for war in europe and have only two references the notes it's because it's united states presented itself to be in the european power manipulators is a country that was really out to lunch and wasn't played a part just as with perhaps more excuses kaiser was able to discount states unless excuse for hitler and shallow end of the day we are we are inevitably such important part of part of center in my judgment least we ought to be and try to make our current policies conform to the way we will behave when the chips are down because when they restricted warfare the atlantic in the nineteen seventies it allows a president who's too proud to fight

an episode or elected over the previous member united states has put aside its rhetoric and reacted like any other power when a vital interest is threatened we react in some of it some hostile control of the atlantic is with the british do to somebody taken over the channel ports and while we were out to lunch when the japanese were in manchuria stimson tribal president hoover would not throw his weight and the ballots reviewed do anything serious about the saline ethiopian or about hitler but when the settlers swept through western europe and parents oslo tell courts would threaten the control the atlantic and britain was in danger the country switched over from about sixty seventy percent early in nineteen forty say will help the allies without the risk or two when the chips were that will help them restore and when the japanese

really moving into china which would've switched the whole balance of power last asian decisively the united states could cut off oil exports so we have a way of behaving when the chips are down the rhetoric and performance and we just let our law follows winter in korea jay z a sin that is not a vital militia just announced its second state stood up and said politically very important our world offended by the un well the shinsky later told american public official you for this if you're in a fight about addition of course in the first place they thought this was an invitation because you could credit the un as a serious instrument for defending south korea if us military forces which were withdrawn which they were well it is the star's temptation he decided that if he could get the eastern europe up to be elvis to be a great

star consolidation and he didn't want the united states to do when he got it even thought it might go further erode and western europe but the most is reacting to dr marshall plan they tell and the airlift was the last great test will work that says in a military career airlift of nineteen forty four but that so that was stalin's problem he did and he was he did nidal united states has enormous power balances symbolized by the steel figures in all these years and those the ambiguity about how are going to be is has had a good deal of truth tempting frozen had some pop and dreams the power and they got to the charity and they had a minute fiction and to find out how in fact we afford not to present time we have a a different situation the world and i put this in the form of

russia's the nineteen sixty nine there you have though in terms of stealing which is for them to do it but there you have a record of almost twenty years of reliable us commitment to western europe are an awful lot of us forces in nuclear weapons there so that the tactical ability of berlin occasionally hurd cites the boys in moscow they tried again and sixty well the berlin was fifty eight but the real test of sixty one sixty two but they have that tie looks for a serious plan are pretty solid you've got eastern europe which is grown up quite a lot in terms of technologies to europe and i'd say your roommate is a lot of technological maturity you rest of eastern europe is ritchie's technological maturity in the struggling like the soviet union to get into the ag high mass consumption the public very

good job of a problem with the car but now well you've got the problem of the us tae being pretty reliable western europe and reliable japan and the soviet union faces question marks not so much about the us what about eastern europe itself about china so the fundamental stance the soviet union is the stage and history defense and of course the whole thing is colored by viola grotesque progress of technology which produced no clear what weapons and stockpiles in the hands of the two most advanced powers and their real problem is really does go ahead with the arms race or whether they enter into that kind of agreement you do recall of us know well which

is to walk away the world is not quite globalist that the nuclear weapons but in terms of scale is what you got in the arms race is a classic case of the wobbly that is to say a fellow fearing the other piling on his offices the fencing strategic weapons a great cost and away duopoly ends up as you all those were one fellow driving alone out on the market or meeting in a hotel room and fixing prices by agreement know the speed of the sherman act in the case of nuclear weapons i think rationally for the soviet union the united states and the world would call for me in a hotel room somewhere in that village settlement of the nuclear arms race we haven't got that although has been the most over preparation for the last years the other side of the whole game which is not indicated in this charge of all

is the fact that the whole southern half of the globe look to be at least as of the late fifties a bit like the balkans before nineteen fourteen that is to say they're caught up with the early stage of growth with very powerful national assembly poetry weakness susceptibility to outside influence of pressure and aggression is with a fallen to one camp or the other and with the major powers get themselves involved in wars over the struggle in those areas blessedly in the last a decade on the struggle over the developing world has moved forward in what i would regard as a wholesome way that's a good many of the developing countries that we had to take off and they're moving into a stance in which they're able as it were to be less

vulnerable to the intrusions of external power or manipulation by actual on the drive for national independence combined with the beginning of takeoff we have a new olympic off class in the fifties and sixties that is producing the government so as i say are not easy to the kind of public easily manipulated this earth as they were or believed to have been and then you're getting the movement towards regional ism which were very strongly encouraging which you're begins to block out areas of the world and make intrusion in power manipulation less easy but there's no doubt i know when i was in moscow in fifty nine and nineteen sixty of the authenticity of the soviet and communist at least in europe than in the sixties that this world developing nations was going to fall very substantially under their control and

it was a precarious as a friend of mine was worrying and did leave a certain adventures which were pretty hard to deal with it including the label in hanoi auchter after nineteen fifty eight the south vietnam laos but go by and large ears with a problem not unlike that of the problem the ottoman empire the balkans before nineteen forty years after all were dealing with the residue the breakup of large part of empires the past where the temptations of power struggle over a great reel geezers are getting harden up and finding their own care and moving towards a position where they're much less subject to being the dangers playthings world on a leash so we're not out of the woods by any means the internet power struggle but what you can say about that the us soviet struggle

is that the ap technological maturity stalin was faced with tim paige he took that he took it with less illusion and the kaiser unless madness lack of control of course they have very deeply cautiously that purposely he set aside both a rollercoaster with the possible role of al that was building to the un charter namely us soviet an agreement is the basis for order in the world he didn't pursue natural ideological ambitions as did khrushchev but there were certain reserve and caution and two which i think we must describe something to nuclear weapons to syria after long at all virtually open debate in the soviet union they concluded

that nuclear weapons did change the character or the classic doctrines more would have to be modified in the face of this enormous technical and human factor and the generally in history a convergence of power of an ideological struggle emerge peculiar status of the union after the second world war does lead to war but there's some historical memory some rationality some anger sort of damocles of nuclear weapons has permitted to get through this temptation without the global know your twitter questions and a few words about it others in the drive to technological maturity in the few remarks that i've made last time about latin america make clear that in my judgment

the larger countries in latin america mexico brazil argentina are taken as a whole there are important reasons regional reservations in a country like brazil where the northeast is best in the early stages of the hallways are countries which are struggling to work their way out of the takeoff based on imports of station into a drive to people on twitter mexico's doing the job that they're parts of brazil are really is really moving forward in countless op all about understanding the extent to which brazil malcolm commands was moving to commit to diversify technology industry argentina is fitfully as direction of all backgrounds isolated excessive terrorists and monopolies that went with the first generation of leading

sectors take off in those imports subscription service that has been very heavy burden so the class nineteen thirties a move is beginning to move to struggle with and make some progress with the political maturity but they still have a long way to go is to save downton writer oh little new industrial town in mexico city the first factories are dealing with refine the working of them are in heavy engineering metal working next to a steel would not getting into that kind of reform or so ago and whether and in the sixty years polls whether we will find them and resolve this virtually absorbed in their economy a weapon modern science and technology

holds about to turn century old singers sixty years holds up a possible thirty years i'd say that the turkey and iran are probably in the early stages of the potential to be on the table iran is beginning a symbol of iran's beginning to move debris and think at least into move simply from oil selling oil out two brain chemical for thinking about brain chemical fertilizers plastics and so as i understand or like the venezuelans that we cannot build a modern economy simply an oil exports very helpful but now that that tried and fabrication but they've got a long way to go taiwan has moved so fast the definitive structure their symptoms being beyond take off that i should say the most solid cases of the

major countries of latin america our final word about their question someone and critics of the state has raised is there really such a thing as the phase of technological maturity i pointed out this some of the problems of precise measurements and even an evenness in the distribution of modern technology and in the analysis itself the reason i think my colleagues have trouble with this is that if you follow through from the take off to the drive technological maturity this is really the story of stages in the diffusion on the supply side of new technology and ah it's not so difficult to make a rough estimate of when countries reach technological maturity because it's possible to name the turn of the century are nineteen fourteen what the major technology czar steel and still working the internal combustion engine electricity chemicals of certain

types and i when they begin to command them with regional reasonable efficiency or you know they could come out and they put their minds to it you can refuse ministry what's going to high mass consumption is really a discontinuity because that is a concept of the supplies now i look very hard and of the stages that kind of measure status in terms of levels of gnp per capita it would allot pioneer to say turkey's erdogan take off when we're you know moving up from seventy two hundred dollars per capita and the finished cake often hundred and thirty and dr technological maturity takes in a four hundred and a dust dust doesn't break out that wage growth is not primarily they are the gnp matter as reflections on gnp is the absorption of science and technology and they have to do that through seconds behind us consumption is related to levels of

income per capita because there're what happens is and when to actually what income per capita gets up to a certain stage people sense that what is it that i can buy with mike and you know consumers what's left for consumption of this industrial machine and what you can buy for it is the automobile and durable consumers in the suburban house in oral also you can divert and social security and so on and the accomplishment within the society and i will come into a bird which you that is what an industrial civilization of our technology has thus far been unable to produce which is now headed world travel by jet planes saw and it's not trivial because behind the automobile is the desire to get over the horizon which is when most profound desires and then you can see it in the village and the first thing of films that's insightful a sewing machine for the house as a bicycle but

one of the great human visitors to get over this is what television you find television burials over the shacks and primitive african latin american slums ringing villages that people want to see over the widely considered and a suburban houses are you know you can walk along the town and the parkinson's on principle for better than living in the slums get out the piece of ground which grow so privacy a piece of land and mobility are not trivial human desires and your build an awful burden to his suburban house in a country in and television set for the weekend look down on these poor people maybe even cheating a bit on the floor of the house to the television set but it means something but that's a demand for and that's why you could have countries

going into high mass consumption before technological maturity when the food the popular mood resource manpower basis and palestinians it was good so before they fully exploited a holler know brought all the modern technology there really got into the automobile it so rich and that's not all that difficult and if you don't make it a fetish of the stages or you are pretending veterans act and the data will support there really isn't much tougher is finding out when countries are technologically mature or when they go and on stage well rwanda a mass consumption next week because the movement of the next week of us history but focusing as you can see from your meetings on the tonys and the great depression which on my interpretation has a lot to do with the structure of the economy a misconception in the post for a resumption of that stand in our history which really the

base of the following in the final session of this half of the term which will be a new frontiers are great societies and the search for quality as the wizard were leading sectors in societies as they get richard beyond the old relationship questions he's spoke about the fact that stalin probably got much further expansion because of the ambiguous situations to what extent do you think that we could have responded by defining your response to too hypothetical situations about expansion could we have said what our vital interests were before he started it now well you know the history of that is something like this during the war

we made a federal case out of the political freedom of eastern europe in general which is what you also promised and poland in particular and stalin understood this very well he and his colleagues we're sure that we make it in the sense that we would back our play with military force there for him before the war was over he began to make moves in poland and elsewhere that were immense the last thing i believe the fact that roosevelt did was to write a draft message trip short i guess wasn't so sinister or it was working on draft message to churchill's doubt on his concern about the russians unlike corporations but refused the first thing president clinton came in i think it was april twenty third nineteen forty five

vocal region dates because they have no chance to check he called and molotov and he gave a lot of the united states that one of the hardest going over it never had any promises freedom for poland what are you doing and out phrases and how the central was going to react about this and they were cautious at the climax in the old at the time of the onset of disco come from just before that every monday when he gets senate he said harry hopkins was ill talking last couple of years although you and begin to raise this there really are several things happened one of the pressures in the united states too get the boys home is overwhelming and it had a great effect on sharon stalin's assessment is to win back our plate militarily weak in in eastern europe are taking to him that we

couldn't find a country that would just mess with spoiler knowledge respect to unilaterally before nate it even settle its biggest issue of loss that this looked like it at a country which said we'll care certainly working with senator vandenberg i think it became clear to president truman that there was no basis in the republican or as own party than were in the lottery ultimatum and a polish elections we continue to make noises but the conclusion that was drawn no was all right we need to go to war for the freedom of eastern europe and back the yalta commitments but no one will save western europe roughly was the mood that road third it was complicated by the awkward relations between president truman the secretary state was mr burns say they never really that was the most awkward relationship with a long history to it and it wasn't until

he had dubbed marshal on the atchison be had from his point you a bible relationship of seconds david and there's a lot to europe and burns is policy in some of his persona five years and were it my judgment at the time so let's say what i'm saying now it's a visit to start with these difficult very casual about the future but the west are moving cautiously but you asked what what is the term and i'd say it's one get the boy's home quickly we had an election you know in nineteen forty six november but republicans in the house and the central issue was given the question everybody was getting boards that look like a return of nineteen twenty isolationists ms malena forces move back home the top of the lack of a political base for it will appeal and perhaps the hidden some disarray within the president

seconds to snare jordan staal and think he did take the recently formed even any move cautiously really felt the ground under state and in forty eight i know you're traveling to those arm and then he had to unplug and stalinization of poland which i i came through that part of the world in the summer forty eight really conceivable eisenberg he really felt that onstage without ever took him down to forty eight to be absolutely sure and he was about ten so the war and that's what i think is a different posture that have prevented that it stunk and the facade at least american waterways are the alternative would've been to negotiate with us for the utilization of the united democratic chairman within about what burns asked for fifty years over three from tripoli and it bases but that would've meant working with us to get that neutralization of the democratic electorate but he preferred as this sort of the russian nationalist feelings to get totally under

his control valuable and what we have a whole lot of the story of the time that an r wouldn't last but that is that's where the well that there were signs of his exploratory movement for expansion in poland so that we could have issued id military will no doubt about it but all our big debates about this in which i was very very young officers to forty five forty six and then i saw when i was in europe two years so in the commission's europe like in the middle of this in east west the operations of the un so there's plenty of time to give his talented and to do this all at once he has crept up and slowly tactics testing all every inch of the way but there was no political base as the united states the west the tragedy of what we've done so often we've we really wait until we're right up against the wall of us are lost total loss of bells and we have to react very heavily early

nineteen sixty five years president johnson real news articles about this in the encyclopedia britannica and published summaries digest is jason it sixty five his platoon was advisors over the disintegration of came with the increase in the north vietnamese regulars was one go on doing what you're doing and then face a catastrophe in which you might have trouble getting air force to get out now are three forces say that there was a long period and one of the fired disintegration of this going over that's ryan wrote for that kind of a case that i thought this picture of the rebels into pinterest user you can see what the ambiguity about how we in fact it has been one of the causes a war

because it just left out in people's lives and then they moved in and then we do all sorts of things when they start to move to the gap between our how we behave when the chips are down as a nation just like any other vital interests are and how we talk about it beforehand which is this netflix and i remember once of american university off a distance invited me to talk to an anti vietnam war it was like a deal and was it no press that they were absent scrupulously had about three hours and where we ended up in this was not you know they're arguing with me what they're contemplating certain facts about the united states in the century and its behavior is a nation which not all mothers and different ways like like this is how we systematically deviate when we come to a critical challenge and how different it was i mean it was wilson and what he actually did in the nation

lost planet was that it was the nineteen thirties in the polls in early nineteen forty and how we behaved after paul paul starrs is a complete reversal of the polls and for six months i would behave in the japanese movie and into china and then how we behaved this bring the boys home to get rid of the rationing forget europe and then i tell you if we kept troops to two years but for silver painful necessarily support fight and own career so what south as you can see photos somewhat humorous but partially serious deal charts with him accountable on the deck because of the ambiguity of the world will fetch up in the park it doesn't reflect us lack of consensus on what is a vital interest in iran since is well into thus far what

it's reflected is a lack of consensus of our vital interests are unintelligible the wall and then there's a great convergence and while people are you that i greet that's right we still have those after all we still washed and farewell addresses read in how's the congress i guess on the anniversary every year so a debate before but what i'm saying is something that is the case but the internet behavior the nation was very strange like these polls early late part liking for this is no question object but we talked and behave one way when the issue doesn't get very near the nerve rattling alito a very different when the us can't look at the wilson there are a few people who

in the atlantic is that tonight april nineteen seventeen we say what they said six months before so that they could just disappears when dr johnson so the side of the gospels and so we would just got a look at that phase of our history now you can say that will president a good logical position people it has been saying no we should have reacted the way reacted when the loss of the atlantic or kept going and going into china are going khrushchev put the missiles and culinary there was just no sentiment in this country for the selective i don't think any american president can survive if you can get those muscles one would've predicted that how we behave until actually got the pictures

so we believe that we've been a problem for ourselves in the world and finding that our stance it's essential question i thought that the fact that to some extent was ambiguity estimates vary our behavior of policies but i think go on to do if you're still figures do show anything at all but just by looking at this you'd say the united states is or color eventually it must react to this in true isn't on call fat or the spread of say the japanese really a german car so again the sun's on signs that may be some sort of the conflict is here historically inevitable well i don't think you're making a perfectly good point the sensible japanese militarists and less parochial germans and italians than hitler and we have no concept of states' our bustling in shallow reading after all is

much less excuse for them because they'd been through it once before they remembered wilson into prague the fight in egypt is at war and then you know within roaring in and we were all dressed up with nowhere to go in nineteen ninety not within the great american offensive but we were the critical margin in nineteen eighty so they're so they didn't have much excuse you're right but to look at to go back and re read as you show franklin roosevelt struggles with the congress and how he was turned out it wasn't just that they had a vague notion that america might be isolation is that was put to the test in nineteen thirty seven he tried to get his hands free to get a little help and the congress's will never again until off from la paris they'll what's different of course and of course those power shifting in the lyrics unless you know in the nineteen forty election was a complete concert so much authority when lisa metzger

war no come with a destroyer deal and i have the same thought was the lend lease which was all involved in their greatness he was all came out and here is you know been tying franklin roosevelt's hands the nineteen thirties and losing the last chance to avoid the second world war nothing is true or you could argue it can be so doing they ever were having coffee listening and i guess as you say that there were over four doesn't look inevitable and i said only if you didn't throw an irrational points images of what the war be like and what a quick fix or the technical quick fix was possible a german generals that then you're right the us churchill's call the second world war the unnecessary war and that for sure is true because if the united states britain and france has put up

a quarter of the effort they only have to put it in the thirties german generals and the many of them are waiting on arrival for the west to react but the answer is a test in which we demonstrated systematically up to the critical margin that we are out to lunch and we made a federal case this year keough more or less inherent weakness of the democratic system works and how would you go about setting up a solid policy and standing by it in all cases if you if you if your system as well as a big questions is exacting the marvelous passion passage in tokyo but democracies in peace he describes this kind of convulsive church and marketed as they will never mind for

possible survivors in a name all caught up in the excitement that whole passage of production was nudging his famous prediction about emergence of russian the united states and he says you know i divorce forced and then that becomes a big enterprise low energies and going into business and suddenly it's over in the first stages of the war democracy some battles but there is a formidable thing to fight because that yes there is a whole society rather than the struggle of president truman president eisenhower president kennedy and president johnson since nineteen forty five really starts a since the truman doctrine has been whether democracy to do just what you said look this is the border and they've paid they've taken their lumps sometimes for an especially president drew when president johnson they've tried to maintain the staples because they remember to

that with costs i was leading the world in failing to deal with the limited threats of the things so that they get here and japanese felt they could safely get pitched themselves and also because you cannot be president without living extraordinary reality of the possibility of a new you so that they want to avoid that the lesson they draw is not like the one that i'm drawn from the system the ambiguity and announced that innocent united states is this week and this week barely survived the second world was the cultures of positions they don't know the next time around we mislead somebody like that happened here therefore the all of our leadership has been since les in march forty seven has

been designed to try to keep a steady is democracy statements and reliable so the us and the political that flew on the big issues we've done in a certain smaller matters i think and that is the essence before the post war presidents been trying to and taking the whole performance art our society without a soundtrack just leave all speeches and the debates out and the political vicissitudes of president truman president johnson i'm going to do that and just look at the net performance of united states of speeches and noise in the system and editorials in your court just before we'd been remarkably steady that's the net steadiness of our performance in an unstable painted bikes that's another matter but it's a it's a great tour de force of democracy into a few cases i know were government and political leaders honestly tried to learn from history their desire to learn from history sharpened by their knowledge about

any other human beings just what nuclear war has this disease made of this position of that ambiguity is heightened lacked iron pours out they was when they had an important than our communication system which everyday must produce a headline so stay and anne you have a consistent any administration position of the intellectual brazenly united states even with people agree with that all of that have a basis they have to criticize the so called intellectual leadership and there i in my own time i've seen this image in the nineteen forties that bring the boys home if you can give them a position you would say the new left with screening for this and i was overseas at the time the stars and stripes have a consistent policy of the what we doing here are only home and now a lead on a job a family they characterize over eastern europe of course once i got home and got our uniform went

back the universities are back to the editor's chair sid back to the publishing houses and second thoughts and only to become today's reactionaries look at them but but this is persistent chasing the headlines the newspaper's inaugurated which now television has as a compound in the post with television you have to have the morning show and then you have to have in me and reduces them for the six guard needs so that we forget the day what was the headline yesterday but we never find out what's going to be mr it's always wanted right now and then of course the way the rest of the world which does take certain temperature gauges from from the us press he's a victim of this kind there's no doubt that they have to mention that especially with television that we'd never been before i'd say were cushioned by two things it's

worse than that the first is that our adversaries in the post war at least have a doctrine which runs something like this go pay too much attention to the noise in the system to help the forces on the ground and hours i think that they look at acts oh preps now face see a tremendous pressure of going out on a president to see the way that when the tet offensive was misinterpreted a draw conclusions from that as he said that leads to some political consequences but that same period were that was important was the fact that in that we withdrew our forces from her and pcs when dc's and announced i guess with the us team's world report which drew our strategic periphery leaving south korea out there is a theory or protect the forces in that paid no

attention and busiest air and that's once all that then the other solvent for use of the underlying budget and the underlying extraordinary good sense of our people rose i've seen the press and television with the simple fact that holmes had to have war for the first time or actually be forced to seat and then there are the combination of factors that in my judgment led to say not very illuminating lucid account of what the war was about and how it was going to go from the press coverage and while studying this week now they've managed to discount for their own judgments picking people because the again i think that if you take the noise in the system in the attack so sure you have a lot of

noise about against them but they're there is an underlying of coincidence stearns here which has managed to in some way to keep an equilibrium a prospective despite what you properly say is the year the heightened impact of television on but we don't yet know a great deal because i don't know they feel a lot of interplay between foreign policy speak and so it's a question of parkinson's but eastern west but he makes the point that it believes that the countries in the east are destined traditionally and culturally to go communist macy's did you know in soviet russia would align himself with the western powers the games must go serve as her fortune as byzantium fast

just in wood which you thought of this were on the first point i don't agree with and i don't see anymore inevitability and communism and on the contrary i think that forces last decade moving asia towards some different version of modernization on console i've gathered strength but what you do see is the most searching this integration in the sixties in the soviet chinese relationship how has a long history to understand all the routes that they're that evoke was way back and in russian history where that the chinese cities in all that were a threat and who is deeply ingrained in russian is a fear of china

in this communist north the broken communist china in the mid fifties when the things that struck me was how systematically awkward with the relations between moscow and the chinese communists the other things the russians gave the chinese communists very bad advice and a political ad over bourbon insurrection hello walls wipe out once and for all and barely escaped how to design their own role kind of guerilla warfare operation country moscow's advice in moscow was playing an ambivalent game with the chinese national subconscious congress made it on their own and then stalin the sinatra record that stalin told me gee this last thing is that he never really the chinese communist are trapped were and then they said thank you very much christina and the so the soviet vice consul years did not prove who was nevertheless they

and you could see in the whole worship even when it was going on tensions in eight out of that history plus the deep emotions don't know after of the failure of great week for the withdrawal of soviet aid which without evidence one which is really a function and we know evidence one about the size of a suspect and speculation i'm not using that to cover some great knowledge in the government which doesn't exist my hunch is the critical issue in the soviet union and china was china's insistence on having a national nuclear capability the soviets may have promised you know something like that to the deal will put missiles in the air but if you worked for the government for a great nuclear power you know how sensitive government is too the other people in nuclear weapons an egg a case having your own nuclear weapons a position the fire not far

without you and i think it may have been moody chinese conversation to become an independent nuclear power that at the basis of that that relationship who was was fundamentally a case oh there's a story and i guess the texans for the winners to or not is that the soviets boston bombing an appointment her appointment the car husband for office to talk to the west german government about the threat of china right now that is maybe not an unsettling week but b the anxiety of the soviet union and of russians as human beings about this this great nation with strong nationalist strong xenophobic now with some nuclear

weapons having passed out to its own people a film which i've seen in which the explosion of a nuclear weapon is followed by immediately by the movement into the area of ground forces trying to make it appear the people as if this is no different from artillery fire the worst of that call and then the excitement of the crowd as a celebration of the explosion blew up which is which is almost a tribal ecstasy the pen so the publication of nuclear war as it's just normal this excitement is a very deep concern to the united states is very deep concern to the soviet union so you do was on to sharpen my point is something that i do not rule out the very great attract attention between russia and china that may have influence on soviet foreign policy that's why i threw out you know the story in today's newspapers an example if that were true that maybe true but as the level

of parkinson's destroying communism was willing to fight at least i don't see the evidence for it but do you think that the gap between and china and russia as well between china and that the western bombs coming out of russia it's very hard to to make a judgment i cried because what is china but china is in the hands of us now who in turn is caught up in some kind of very intense power struggle that you can enable holdings to resolve or haven't been able to resolve now what you can say they simply is that we are a nurse now in chinese communist propaganda we're number two the vision the soviet union number one what you can say is that in the cumulative the proportions of foreign trade has shifted seventy thirty thirty seven chinese coming straight with the

communist plot world with a seventy percent out i just don't know but i don't think we've seen the last of its chinese politics and dispositions respectable as i've tried to make clear it's my private view that we're looking at china in the midst of its own version of the cases a ticket prices to take off and what your rendition of the allocation of resources welfare versus lecture at home versus a broad normalization of relations with the outside world that things are up for debate as well as power and so when you say china and my judgments are talking about something which may be six months a year two years what it is now because and finds country in nature didn't put this on tuesday election after that reason a template churning ocean borders take it on the attention away

from domestic i first thought of the fact that really was the fact that it had to start and i know there has been a recent years two things that been a series of scuffling was at the border sometimes associated with the movement of refugees into russia from china the yacht secondly there's been a very slow but serious buildup of military power on both sides of the frontier and it's not been sensational and mobilization for world if you just watch and to belong in the last four five years is a lot more power arabia along the frontier but i don't know that there's

one last year earlier party like you were you were getting that six moves that generally technology in them great society i suggest a set of movies about almonds at the workplace and that is inflation is there or is there an inevitability that the dilemma of inflation or depression must place the democratic ticket technology my short answer would be no nobody noticed it because they could drive to technological maturity than fourteen of the classic second quarter century there was a group of falling trend prices they're important period seventy three ninety six you see rising trained in crisis the region's so those trends in my judgment are are tied up the only obliquely to what was happening in the world or tied up with them over extension agricultural

acreage in the great boom down seventy three an opening up of a railway is of course all the way out to the west coast the united states the company some very important improvements in the technology of transport steel vessels reason for the railway is a steel ship cutting cost and excessive acreage opened up because it opened up a cozy you can't open up a big agricultural area by small increments of its new acreage you do a railroad so you had this environment of excess capacity in agriculture down to ninety six which cast of that plus the new technology cutting costs of transport in many other ways it was a very productive period into this environment they are falling prices ending of relatively falling agricultural industry then it switched in the

nineteen ninety six as a novel urbanization all over the world caught up with a treaty now looks more acreage which again you did not a compulsive and opened up the art anti role is given some restraint and great canadians and why you're bringing up you did have the rise in prices because of the lockout like sports the railways a long period of gestation mentally you'll hear their crop so you can either way nicer the business cycle you did have the business cycle running through that political maturity but i don't regard that as inevitable i think that when you put this where we now have a new class of possibility theories and beyond technological maturity i don't think the fact that latin america only other technological maturity is there's anything in that process that the need for self

inflation inflation like america has different routes into the fragmentation of politics lack of a consensus in politics and the one that in some cases a lot deeper social front page to have more trouble it will do and we're putting a couple of the provisions were some french worse in maintaining some spots there's a different role as a problem will that we don't solve problems and walkers and you wouldn't dream of facial think that the technology of technological maturity would be inflationary because what you're doing is bringing in new technology the only short period which is not like the transcontinental roller you know you if you're going in for chemical fertilizer plant buys their windows technology of getting eighteen months two years whatever so the actual installation may raise affected coming in and new supplies to help cut costs

increase supply is fairly brisk visited the inflationary elements in this week's sweep of history and one wars now we're taking resources and burning them up with that increased demand with your expenditures of more than that is either to go mining engineer gets out of the ground from somewhere you can't even aware of your house inflationary and thirties these large skin will hire railways a long long distance mail and while building near paying workers by and steal all that which are not producing anything to railroads finished with its time at the open the character our hydroelectric dam which are building for fifteen years as a second they have that kind of inflation that was

duluth the gestation of those kinds of technology installed a relatively short and therefore inherently wanted to know what about your position and we're seeing that today dayan in the us society is more important to be a consumer than the tv producer with us consumption is is that goal rather than production well wait till next week as we talk about the switch the high mass consumption and the technologies on tour now oh one of those very high proportion steel production that forced rubber production

that portion of the plastic perfection in a solo related vote orlean says consumption side incomes it play back on the industrious bee that you know when you get into trouble when you get services vigils of it aircraft industry and education and medical services you get into which is where an awful lot of the places the areas in our society how a close call a high into law last week there you do have servers or could you have a certain about technology don't agree that their urine into a different legend has it the mobilization of doctors nurses service skills and that is a problem for our kind of society where there especially beyond the automobile age people

own college education health security and so that the reconstruction sectoral structure of our society has been shifting news as the people of god and b and draw consumers will be looking at that to some extent next week after also in eastern europe and a mortar buy sell and motivations can you say that he was governed more via nationalist concerns perhaps set up a buffer zone now against future attacks from western europe or i was in more concerned with perhaps ideological consideration such a time it is how you relate ideology to national power the russian cases were most of the problems that you can deal with it

i mean i haven't done the book on civilian <unk> a soviet society and i mean that in the introduction i tried awfully hard to break out of the usual formally the rally comes as nationalist candidate the dardanelles and protect themselves the germans radiology not that i've tried to show how the nationalist an ideological grounds converge don't try to run through it now but i can mend your copy of the tv might get an instant short at the beginning is the best answer i can give them is the short answer given the de facto me to the late congressman rush of emerge underlining he needed to get profoundly intertwined and it's rather a dead end art you know which is that there are both and the ideology itself and regions with nationalist impulse but they're the kind of

performances so it indicates that they have had in the very global ambitions and you don't go subsidizing fell on an island in the caribbean and it was the united states three hundred million dollars in any year when he gives you a tremendous political headache and he's not getting or economically that just because you you're worried about the germans from eastern europe and that's what brings in the one they're winning and what form that but the the ideological vision is and has been powerful of maybe altering and but it hasn't resolved yet but that last nineteen sixty nine is the very real question mark over china we put a question mark

to reach europe and i think there are people in the soviet union who may be coming to conclusion where is the growth the source kevin owens or stir and the dangers to the soviet union or greater than that prospects for empire and therefore michigan rather rapidly to try and use their influence with ours to get some water in a dangerous world but that is not now that's that's a whole that's a hope of passing a dual citizen before going and sixty one i was in moscow and in his speech to really rationally singing aloha pledging <unk> the country and solar soviet fans to remember the saints are the policy hasn't yet accepted the fact that the stages of growth for defusing part of the stimulus continues to try to make an orderly world londoners were low the nation at the

festivities that's were up to and i think it's the soviet union's got a face because there's a map of the world which is getting rather incredible dangers and the problems the pope has been the poem it's been on the pages