Walt Rostow class discussion on the takeoff in politics and government--the crisis and transition from traditional to modern governmental structures--with examples drawn from 18th and 19th century history of Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Japan, and China

that's where on summer getting a cup of coffee and we'd all sit down with the gun david would be big enough to pass up reading list for any extra copies while you're getting your coffee i like just the first though an idea when i told so my colleagues are in academic life or those of my colleagues in academic life that we're going to put this inspiration to serve it is on videotape and would be available to everybody including academic colleagues of that was it i was warned against this and said this was an area a very dangerous thing to do but i'm not really a very worried about it and but today i really am love well throw out an idea which is easily could become raw stones folly and it is

just a tentative the tentative idea and if that as very likely has nothing in it that all denied ever say that during the week i like i recalled something which i said i mean our first formal session together but i said if you may recall was that this whole wave of looking at politics which looks government as a kind of balancing among issues of justice order and equity a whole security problems of welfare reflect and ultimately the fact that were taking men to be now to maximize human but a balancing act that the human being doesn't simply

maximize profits or maximize security the sense of security or maximize anything a human being with a unit in social sciences is is as i say to balancing rather than maximize you with analysis he was in the garden mathematical economic terrorism doesn't maxim improbable maximum problem all right then i thought well that's putting that in the book that and i'm looking at her librarians awesome biography of fraud in some fluids works i thought of the three fundamentally amiss in his analysis of the human being in the ego and the super ego can a question of just simply crossed my mind and it's as no state is beyond that is there some relationship between the three functions of government in these three

components of the human personality is fled to find them to be a week our picture of it is media related to the problems of the aggression and attitudes towards abroad of kind of those almost animal suspicion and fear so the issue is the goal as it evolved related in some way to the concert the welfare the satisfaction of human watson and the super ego related you were lovely the state an audience that say well it's worth just about as much time as interest in our coffee but it's not worth discussing here to turn over your minds if any marriage to have the largest dust toss out that another playful idea

today is that i thought that the take another bus which is to have the printed charts made of the basic analytics structure if you like of what we said last week in what we're going to save this week on the monitor but first the politics of the preconditions for takeoff cholesterol and chart support it's the preconditions for j kick off we want a promoter now in which the pressures and opportunities from abroad rising from somebody else's prior economic advanced exert the lottery for sure you can take over the place and colonialism by example or by competition nearby unloading cheap textiles or something or bribery and capital and technology as new england

swipe the technology from manchester and so when you do these are pressure on the economy and the convergence of security problems posed from abroad and the us so the pressures and opportunities in the economy by example are or whatever induce certain changes in the constitutional system which of course in place this whole mansfield recall of transitional politics with traditional society to take off about that in the rudest possible way was the bone structure of the thought that we're talking about up last week now this week what we're talking about is the politics of take off in which changes in the economy itself and a beginner that's the wrong place there we have one switch that check text of the next one is the politics of the take off

and here in which economic and social consequences of the take off produce change in the internal power balance as well as the internet and international pop our balance leading to constitutional changes or crises and increased likelihood of at least one international conflict as the power both domestic and the economy is will ceo as a number of the pressures that puts on the constitutional system earth via the increased the proportion of the population and cities that it rises industrial middle class the rise of an urban working class and so on all of them generate these pressures in the economy gather strength and apparently some nations of looked about and cynicism will to move abroad so that is the

most brutal and good summary of what will be discussing today that i could generate aisle now have the takeoff just a few words about it you read the analysis of that it's a phenomenon limited to certain sector of course women and respect or is quite often it's limited because of that fact in certain regions of the country in other words you're talking about when you talk about the kickoff of a country going industrial you're talking about the beginning of sustained industrialization in a part of the society the rest of society being hostile predominantly agricultural that nevertheless it is a sustained phenomenon that is what distinguishes it from abortive surges in industry to atone for it

it runs look a course of about a generation there's nothing magic in twenty years but usually after about a generation of pushing a sector of the celebration sets in it maybe and they continue to be is a large sector of the economy but its rate of expansion ceases to be powerful enough engine because it slows down to push the whole economy all me it essential to the concept of take off is that the economy responds to the potential spy second theory spreading effects of the drive in one second there are cases in history for example the chinese railroads and the indian railroads an argentine rail roads in which show for one reason or another the the secondary effects of the potentialities

come with the railway system are not picked up by the society and out you have to have they been economic and and the system then they set of social attitudes if you like and sometimes little policies which explained the force is set in motion by a surgeon single sector now you've had that as a board member take the last class one of the surge in the united states and we're making twelve sad back after eighteen fifteen only with the old new england textile especially keen twenties do you get in one region of the united states stand industrialization imagine argentina argentina railroads and so on but the number of latin american countries have a surge in the first world war like ours and we're leaking twelve that pretty well subsided caved in

but after the war as us and western european manufactured goods were available it wasn't until at age nineteen thirties that you began to get sustained industrialization in the major latin american countries i you can see in china the classic example of a typical office that's aborted for a decade at least and on so that you have to pick up that demand the arts society which no one is capable of exploiting the potential spreading effects from the sector and then caring for oh typical of the movement from one state to another and the takeoff dr technological maturity is a period of structural adjustment and as the initial leading sectors lose their force and new leading sectors come in in this case what you see after the takeoff and structural adjustment is a

society of moving forward into a long period in which it hard to absorb all of the bulk of their existing signs technology industry and there were only eighteen products i think who was in that kind of structural adjustment cotton couldn't carry it all away any longer and the railroads which began in nineteen thirties a word yet ready eighteen eighties i think is for a good many countries in the world is a period when the railroads have lost their foresee smaller secondary possibilities in before more refined metalworking electricity and chemicals and song came in and my interpretation at least of the slow down in theater war europe is that the old heavy industries which turned out in nineteen

fourteen or not ready in those societies to be superceded as leading sectors by the automobile durable consumers goods and so on what going on stage that took until the nineteen fifties really to catch on here so we'll get the structural adjustment and technical results are as i indicated that you get out estate statistical expansion in the industrial and commercial middle class because you gotta remember that the industry is not simply a factory depending on the level of income in the society and it has a long logistical tailing that people got a british housing new workers in shops and a lot of them the hill of the houses of the managers owners in and out you got them intensified exchanges between indeed the factory itself and those supply with factory raw materials components so that you get paid more massive

movement towards urbanization covers then simply the numbers involved in any given set of factories would suggest the size of this logistical tailed being related it to the sweet taxi industry and especially the level of income at the time that it takes place so you get an urban expansion roots of managerial ownership commercial and working force components are one of the marks of the course of the whole period once take off begins is a fairly rapid reduction in the portion of the working force in agriculture there are no of absolutely firm universal benchmarks in contemporary life whether countries is moving ahead at five six s six seven percent

it's a rarefied increase and gnp pentagon about a one percent drop in the proportion of the working force in agriculture per year broadly speaking you take off most countries to start off seventy five eighty percent agricultural and as a benchmark when the region just the maturity it's down twenty twenty five percent early nineteenth century you could go slower than that france's i recall in one of the books suggested have a three percent drop every ten years in a portion of the workforce in agriculture but francis in the nineteenth century this long case finally you know one of the consequences the take off in the end introduction into the economy of that industry on a substantial scale is a change in the health of rhythm of business cycles at least down to the contemporary age where we

have managed to keep calmly close to employment they knew therefore get woven into the life of a society periods of unemployment our cycles before the take off in the eighteenth century and that ash to another isn't done studies of the british cycles they tended the cycles which would not going to call an infantry type cycles rarely short cycles in foreign trade of the what you now see as the beginning of the surge the nine years major cycle coming in and associate her some herbs without consequences and finally of course with the rise of the city's expansion the food requirements the internationalization of trade in food and

their agriculture becomes more commercialized and made it at least in the context of the nineteen century you get this this long rhythm in agricultural prices in general prices which shapiro about one soda turns which i believe his analysis was fundamentally quite wrong i wrote about it in the british economy the nineteenth century and elsewhere it's roughly speaking upswing from seventy nine eighteen fifteen is a combination of shortages of food brought about by the war and the rise of cities in britain and then after eating fifteen with normal trade you found the agriculture over expanded you have the decline down to about eighteen forties with the mid forties a period of food shortage and you have the grand

expansion from my forties to seventy three from the opening up the american west the railroads nation the west and then for seventy three ninety six you had access but passing is puerto rico orchard falling food prices that in another time actor as in the forties in the nineties and the opening up of argentina canada and some extent russian wheat fields as a way of feeding the world that these swings in long swings in relative prices and the general price levels will see along with the rhythm of the business cycle have a great deal to do with the timing of a major political events they're not the fundamental cause so the relationship between them along in the medium

of a short compact suv you were like factories and politics as a witch now the political results of this this kind of process they touch each of the central characteristics of politics and little syria the takeoff has some effect on that security policies of governments on the welfare requirements the welfare problems and policies of governments are also on the constitutional structure respect the security there is of course the link to those concerned with the trip are perceived between industrialization and they're effective power in the world arena out with the increase proportion of the population in the cities and you have a number of different new elements in politics you have the rest of the people in the

cities the food prices are high and air you have the desire you may begin to have very early and industrialization pressure to ameliorate the us legislation the position of women and children and factories a support humanitarian grounds you have a problem posed for government of the attitude takes towards unions and strikes because they begin that take off usually to appear pleased and sometimes very weak and you have the assertiveness of the new members that industry and commerce in the workforce who wants hey here's a place of more authority in political life laughter aside

but with claims on government for welfare or policies that support industries addition you get the constitutional issue which is the rise of the new mammal various kinds of those first agent us position and you have a security like so the preconditions did not yield modern regimes or regimes that could make a flexible adjustments without constitutional change to give constitutional crises and as we'll see and these can involve the interweaving of the welfare elements constitutional balance security of what's occurred here to talk today about seven if we can get through the wall

the reform bill making three two which is a post takeoff adjustment but is foreshadowed but it out during the take off period the eighteen forty eight crisis in germany at the very beginning of the german take our fleeting forty eight crisis in france which is amused by my way of giving france thirty years writing thirty two and sixty for takeoff at some distance or in the takeoff there's like you know five crisis in russia which is it post take off but it's it's legitimate because it in a way it's it's it's a part of the forces generated during the takeoff which became very powerful in the period of structural adjustment after takeoff and russian economic structure with justin from it making five busy eighteen eighty nine constitutional lawyer

crystallization in japan which is an early stage takeoff there's a presentation by constitutional crisis within china limits to take off and there's the nineteen ten nineteen twenty mexican revolution which is really pre take off like the french revolution and its resolution by nineteen forty as the basis of political basis for the paper now just a few words about the oak ridge reform bill which insurers from you you all i mentioned that the politics of the period of the ocean or in poland forced him to the slowdown in the us reform movement so which for a variety of reasons during the world wars economically distorted

other british columbia in a number of ways that force the disproportionate investment in agriculture oh great prosperity but it does it is a distortion away from the pattern that there would have been normal a time of peace during the industry pollution out it put a lot of british resources into the loans and grants to allies to help fight the war and britain however proved capable of transferring those loans in the classic sense of the trees in an international trade theory in real terms via the context of revolution one hand and its virtual monopoly over we exports and notably re exports from the indian west indies idea of sugar and all the rest where gray's dominance of the seas permitted and be virtually

monopolistic a training role about a half a million british were mobilized this is a non trivial war was five percent of the population casualties may have been in the order of two hundred thousand but the population is rising and whether there was a painful post war you just the eighteen sixteen and out painful in all directions because there was heavy unemployment but also food prices fell in the agricultural interests which it enjoy high prices during the war were suddenly up having to face a new situation there was a brief expansion eighteen seventeen eighteen partly sparked by british loans somewhat comical countries to help america ready and then there was a very difficult year at nineteen the two

massacre in which you can see the foreshadowing of the main issues that lay ahead for signs of piano included joan repeal the corn laws which took down in the forties to complete and parliament through a four hour of adding another stage in my life i've produced a social tension charts which show is on what was there it is on the screen here to illustrate the coming in both these fluctuations which had in my judgment a profound effect not on the underlying issues of british political life on their time i combined in a business cycle index and it we price index in such a way that the peace index goes up if unemployment is up or food prices go up and go

as selye every to every time you get above the figure for its inverted so let's zero two four six eight ten when it gets above four thousand something of it difficult happens in british politics and when it falls down a relatively quiet times and you can just look you're into the spin system family in india seventy ninety six you have some some unrest it at no one and eighteen or a third of the next big winners at eleven twelve we have a luddite rights they have the bloom down to eating for fourteen fifteen eighteen sixteen you see here is difficult the investors here and then an asparagus seed is protected period of depression and high food prices difficulty which is the

setting for the reform bill and then the thirties you have a big boom and thirty nine to forty two another difficult for the charges that come in there and the charges coordinate forty two of the big railway blog and they come back again and forty seven forty eight our the air spin among system the culmination x a seventy nine united hundred the factory acts of a team to eighteen nineteen eighty three three eighteen forty two aged forty seven all relate to this in a curious way the time when you could get a factory act through which would rewrite that position of the women of the children it was kind of a cyclical recession visitors could not say that these people were working than twelve hours or whatever it was actually necessary

to keep industry running and make profits and the humanitarian arguments were pressed and pushed through the party that this incremental a buildup of song mild measure of protection bonnie raitt made clear once again with the hypothesis is is not that the great issues were created by the rhythm of food prices an important the timing of this pastor at eighteen twenty five you haven't a minor expansion twenty seventeen twenty eighteen and down and basically that's a difficult period from twenty five three two and it's compounded of course by the playback effects on brittain of the french revolution of eighteen thirty there's a truly great struggle in that in the house of lords especially as to whether this thing would just be

accepted the reforms desired and in the end the conservatives in the interest of the nation quite simply because the op the alternative really might well of the bloodshed accepted what was a modest but significant degree of parliamentary reform and large the electorate are taking a significant part of the new middle class but equally important perhaps more important it got rid of or greatly reduced the rotten boroughs which mostly which in which members of parliament would come in love with a rosary representing a very relatively few persons whereas some of the new expanding cities were grossly under represented golden glowing tan who had opposed the bill earlier finally

reluctantly but significantly refused to form another government and the king accepted this peaceful shift in the domestic ballots are on the basis of which you move forward towards the repeal of the corn was a great many other it's a policy which reflecting the new power of the industrial urban glimpse inside the british structural adjustment to do before could move forward to the next group leading sectors i think can be identified with the twenties there was the expansion from eighteen nineteen twenty five in a boom or eighteen twenty four twenty five focused on heavy loans to latin america but that one collapsed and i until railways because i

didn't have very convincing moving forward you know so that was a british crisis in the interweaving of the state of the economy and the political elements and it's really the story if you like of over the short run the economic events in short run political manipulation interweaving with the simple fact that the proportions of the british population had been shifted significantly by the minute take an awful lot for the sunset we do recall at louis felipe was the inheritor of the unrest and activating siri the commercial industrial groups thought that they had found in him in a lie he gradually turned from there and their promotion out of politics and others the beginnings of the socialist movement confronts under legal and then you have the depression nineteen forty eight in which the underlying

frustrations of the a working and middle classes converged it was all so much briefly yearly blog set up his workshops in paris which are mainly of the primitive effort to ensure continuity continuity of an unemployment at that the inherent or of this revolution was of all people really napoleon and any a perfectly free universal suffrage election leaking fifty two he was elected over others and that convert itself into an emperor again and it's an interesting pattern you know that the french did not i move like the british parliament not achieved an

initiative that had earlier times in britain and the tensions between carson the countryside going to produce a resolution for us the crisis the originals and great powers with popular support that reaching out to the countryside for that support and surrounded in paris that the deal of the piano this is instead of like a pattern of president of all and presenter go hand in making them fifty eight fell back very much into the political arena it be the election's only have

a meaningful way was a great setback for karl marx it's one of the margins in marxist literature great disabuse with free elections but his appeal radio was too long order after a very stormy time it was a field he was actively support industrialization and he had elements of grinder which will come a nationalist order order and nationalism and economic progress for his initial dispositions and indeed in the fifties and sixties france moved ahead economically at a rapid pace or two thousand tower looms in france are making thirty and ten thousand making forty six eighty thousand baking seven i win the french began to move rapidly

on the basis of eating forty two law actually that the railways late in france in this case with a lot of the british capital in engineering health and this is the time of the big boulevards were built in paris house not dod but dirty get caught up on a number of extreme adventures of the mexican adventure in which we back and finally of course in the franco prussian war what does mark salter poem just before he took his role as mr president

political way in was really riding high and gave him rather condescending advice been eight years louis napoleon was personally defeated in battle and captured and the germans were in paris i was going through the un resolution of french politics in the teens seventies and coming in there republican and the bitter heritage of the communion its repression all of which the long arcs on french political life that's what i'm putting out is the resolution of the political crisis of the take off in france taking forty year after i did give way to increase support for industrialization

but it was not a movement towards democratic politics that debt serves as a political framework for an important surge in us recession the completion of the take off that video in the environment nineteenth century and the nineteenth century engage for us in a series of adventures and situations one of which proved that the downfall of a poet and the coming in it in time or in the course of seven days of a parliamentary system in which at last we look at the powers of government and ambiguous lee rested with a chamber decades germany were talking about they're really very briscoe period of

pre conditions take off and unification starts at eighteen fifteen after the poetic or is there still some thirty sovereign states within the german confederation some of them very small at thirty four they moved troops overran to coordinate fiscal and commercial policy and in the states that there was an active an important role purposeful role of the of these german governments in but setting about to create the preconditions for takeoff as russia there was some conversion of the institutions from earlier times the factories in russia for the armed forces of the old prussian is a humble only overseas trading corporation which frederick the great integrated i think it's evidence of that too not only carried on in the nineteenth century as a reasonable proportion of german

foreign trade the job itself into highway construction manufacturers and move announcing the brain of the british machinery for german textile factories above all a year from guns were instrumental in the building of the railroads as you will recall the mood in germany the doctrine which underway at home hey here is a list so a famous statement on history demonstrate that history history demonstrates he starts off of course with his famous objection to free trade is a basis for a country of early stage of industrialization and watches hamilton did history demonstrates the restrictions on commerce or not the invention of speculative minus borrow the natural consequences of conflicts of interest of the striving of nations for independence or four overwhelming power there the natural consequences of natural rivalry

and a horse and they can disappear only win this conflict of national interests disappears that is the union of nations under the rule of law is a doctrine of the late comer in the face of british free trade and of those who accept explicitly a link between industrialization archery park as a doctor nearly a fifth of work and was and carried over into the world of industrialization of the nineteenth century the takeoff role of germany is more dramatic than in france ceo and dove it pre conditioning for aetna can be seen and strongly in the eighteen thirty is a cup works are established making twenty seven ronda tell borsuk making thirty seven dick and its partly because they were latecomers to

start off less advanced and france and britain and partly because they had resources which admirably for the railway age the two charter about show you illustrate this the way that this movement and i think a very satisfactory for you see this is a recall as an increase in coal production you see that from eighteen hundred pm in the increase in the uk and i can hear the sea froth coming into you thirties and forties and then you see them much steeper climb to germany a story after france but moving faster and body of course the team nineties the turn of the century matching and surpassing but you also see the limitations of fronts a hero to him in the use of this earlier

korean complex much the same comes out of this spirit that are in production the british her of leveling off as all kurds through the french show starting later but at a slower pace and the germans as margin of the period the separation later that geometric scale clear if you're seeing rates not absolutely sure art and a great deal of the history of an eighteenth century was incorporated in those two sets of hers are the clash came between three of convergence of predicting three elements of dissatisfaction in germany of the dissatisfaction the workers with the position making forty eight the year food shortages of that time hip hip germany harder than in france

should work of agricultural country and food prices rose and there was heavy unemployed so you have a straight triggering effect the combination of a food industry employment situation you have the thrust of the parliamentary liberals through unification but unification under a parliamentary government with a parliamentary and powers of initiative and control and then you had the other you know fires especially oppressions who there was a scale of consensus that time it was time for german gone to unification how the crisis was triggered like many crises we've seen in history of an ancient times by the requirements for financial

requirements of the king and dave here is out of the analysis of the situation is that i buy heroin is actually both restoration revolution reaction which i regard as one of the best books of the revolution making forty eight germany whatever lingering hopes he says intervals might still have for them and entertain were dashed by the address delivered by the killing on april eleven fifteen forty seven at the opening session and i was an address where the frederick when the fourth brilliant affecting and hopelessly unrealistic he said i am moved to declare solemnly that no power on earth will ever succeed in prevailing on me to transform the natural relationship between princeton people the relationship which by its inward truth is veda so powerful into a contractual constitutional never arrived rhetoric and sheet of paper to come between our god and heaven and this land as if it were a second province to rules without paragraphs supply

of people's loyalty the reply the prussian bourgeoisie militant was short and to the point for many conservatism i compose fancy phrase is the key to the strong box was in the hands of the middle class opposition and june eighth in the course of a discussion of the government requests for new appropriations hustle and recited the liberal justice ministry credo and questions of money arrives there isn't and it could be perfect and so there was a constitutional crisis of the kind we've seen before when even making absolute in theory still have to get increased revenues from a constituency which include some who were looking for and large power it's i don't know it whether anyone has ever arabia all of the revolutionary situations that starts with a tax problem we can go back to ancient times where we run into some increased world that the american revolution the

french revolution and eighteen forty eight and there are others well eighteen forty it was a big traumatic event in europe a better ticket last car symbolizing really in the end of the eighteen fifteen effort to restore absenteeism as in france but with some bloodshed but not as much of the health workers were put down there were riots in berlin and only a situation began to improve anything for it a little both politically marginal it so that when the thing was fraught for parliament it did not meet in an atmosphere of an intense immediate crisis interested in that as a hammer suggests in the atmosphere something like third or curricula for change

they were after it is just about a statement from people who were liberated germination eager to reap the fruits of political speech the man's long order the survival of industrial activity demands bubble more a new review of the work there's the political unity of germany so they can break the chains chains which one domestic partners in which even now still separate one german state from another victim as the political unity of germany's american women for its country the eminent position foreign commerce and world trade which can rightly lay claim by virtue of geographic position its greatness skillets people especially with commercial industrial croissants the united states and germany have until now been in opposition to assert their claim against four nations the united states and germany will know how to enforce so howard there was this strong tone of nationalism even among the

constitution was they worked very hard and the constitution and it was a constitution of which would've really are installed a limited mark ian in germany but one in which the power to legislate slate let's legislature would have been strong it's for sale because pressure will not join and russia launched a policy of holding to deal with old structure of the revolving the structure of the government there and there was a partner in russia but its powers were or were limited the german unity question was pompeii postponed by the failure of pressure to join the fifties nevertheless was a period of prosperity and growth of progress in

rural areas and but you knew the great issues raised a front for a remain unsettled unification and the form of political structure of a unified germany eighteen sixty two word depression came as part of that work confrontation on the classic issue of the spirit of what should be the powers of the parliament as opposed to the king of the ministry's he points with respect to the first question king was about to resign in that band until he called on bismarck tribune minister present a minimum under most difficult circumstances me hairline and then moved with great skill and

purposeless through three small wars unite germany wave successes and in this effort to wave of nationalism that followed plus some extremely upset true was it helped outflank liberal constitution this impression produced the united germany and a german emperor that was proclaimed in the palace of versailles kicking seventy one and a former ruling which owned the powers of decision la with the emperor and those who he chose not with the parliament and the government response to a part of three wars are of course a war in which he join with austria to take shows the coastline from the danes and then he turned on the austrians eighteen sixty six for north considered a german consideration and im not acquired

also a story in india struggle with such nineteen sixty two is as a depression things about to retire from strongly considering one reason support for rule or in europe oh now for russia we talked last time the last time the surgeon at eighties nineties in the economy the leadership of the organization after nineteen hundred there was a porch results were liane at a slowdown and recession rose lost their forces leaving security sector in russia and as we've seen there is a lot of japanese or are converging with domestic unrest to produce the making five

revolution the background to the whole process or is the statement of the steps taken by the czar and at ninety five recalling very much the kind of statement i i just don't read to you from the king of prussia and eating forty seven this is what nicklaus said i know that recently and some of the gatherings of his dissents those voices of persons were heard were carried away with this senseless dreams and participation of the representatives of the sensors in them that in the matters of internal government let all know what i was doing all my powers to the good of the people we'll maintain the basis of autocracy with the same firmness in steadfastness as did my unforgettable late father insist that's the new groups in the city's air and some of the countryside some fear of the you know the beginnings of that they're also full of self government and

started you have the students' movement in eighty nine you know and starting running on with all sorts of activities that some violent down to making five you had strikes in the context of the recession or agrarian riots and nineteen two anti jewish pogrom was then cable in a way the russians on issues of wrestler japanese war and out of the seat people tended to regard of that or is it a kind of adventures are not a deeply felt a national engagement and the impact was a bit like glee napoleon this eighteen seventy five year against the germans led to the degrading

of the uk the prestige of the government in the air park or c and you had them real violence general it's like you know five bloody sunday of general strike and of the videos there were those would never realize that the strain of all the absolute monarchy as it had existed had run out i can't go through world all the elements that arose from this convergence of military failure economic difficulties in the short run and the assertiveness of the new groups arising in in a modernizing rush but in short you had the acceptance of the new legislative system political parties are made legal there were of the dumas met for the first time people twenty seventh nineteen six the electoral procedures were complex than was no direct election of members that workers elected

that's what they're elected to do and reflective not with statistical accuracy all the elements in the country a one man one vote bases certainly are reflecting on the clash between the the actions taken those are the autocracy and large proportions of people that was enough other developing nations in the early stage that russian parties were fragmented so many parties and their powers or limited the russian resolution of the problem of the roll of powers of the king in his government are important those are his government versus tomorrow with much more of course like the eu so german resolution later japanese women like jennifer us outbreak in seventy or britain

but that a great deal was accomplished and that's often forgotten and russia between latino five nineteen forty eight it is the time when the free of the surface eighteen sixty one was brought somewhere near a reality including the right of the persons to engage in the electoral process to prevent is a vast increase in outlays for education the education budget of russian that was forty four million rubles a nineteen hundred hundred and forty three million miles in nineteen thirty the railway slow down but industry does move forward a more diversified bases i myself take the view that after the structural adjustment it had like you know five russia in my own vocabulary begins to move in what i call it

too the drive to technological maturity the nation which the first world war to produce diversified manufactured goods it was already beyond the simple for stage investors actually very early stage of the battle on twitter you get a curious girl a kind of doubling in the major indicators and russia between nineteen hundred nineteen thirty coal goes from eighteen to forty million tons of iron from three to five million pounds which at that time was not a trivial figure sugar from eight hundred and eighty two thousand tons two million nine hundred forty four thousand exports from six hundred and sixty seven billion rubles to one point five billion rubles nevada remember that a good deal of that surge comes after nineteen oh five because the economy was not moving forward

rapidly between nineteen hundred and ninety five so we see again at a very limited what was your limited but serious accommodation to the new forces local forces generated by the fdic off in russia making five in japan the takeoff comes in the eighties and nineties that we see here at a kind of biz markie and pair of small wars as the potentialities opportunities stronger a military stronger china merger the war with china and at ninety five the rest of japanese for yielding as something of an empire with korean for most half of the island of subtly like this

one who did not overplay his hand in these military engagements and was conscious of the whole balance of power in which he was pressing forward the new jersey the japanese didn't overplay their hand they understood that they pushed back the russians but they could not portsmouth get an indemnity which they asked for and they were prepared to settle for limited gains they did achieve that lower than simply conscious that they lack the resources for a full follow through or any kind of truly grandiose the three acre an expression of the national

ambitions that comes of course later but there is an interesting you use these spores coming out of the mixture of a sense of increased power capacity an opportunity in the region very typical of political themes think of one in our own contacts or were not sanctimonious about it it was the american teen tutoring were making twelve to takeover candidate no we're never quite lost the sense of being a fraud and that the canadians didn't really want to bite us in the revolution but there is a temptation that constantly first since an accretion of capacity in power that they got brings notably if you're an environment that offers his opportunity now bear it any wonder that the imperial respect was

issued promising a constitution for japan about eighty ninety and three political parties a marriage the central issue is was fundamentally it shouldn't be a british or a german type constitution centering once again and what was in this transitional period of politics in the northern half of the globe in the nineteenth century the central issue how much power should the parliament have person should have the right to elect people to parliament of these of a newer and the government should the government be responsible to king or should he be responsible to a part of the issues debated and there were those who who

advocated that a british liberal solutions are but these those who had led japan through the meiji restoration initiative to modernize years were strongly for the bismarck in model fact in this case the transfer is quite explicit or two germans richard moss and and who played an active role in drafting of the tv nine constitution iggy the parliament that limited powers to supervise expenditures would be consoled by the government appointed existence there was a lively press a lot of discussion of opinion of that was noisy but the power away with the emperor and the advisors viewpoint after

election there was a brief experiment with actually some members of the vote party going into a government but the revolution here was over if you as close to failure as you like where are you a greater citizen of fight for parliament making forty eight and this should not be a surprise when this came very early in the industrialization of japan he was a country predominantly agricultural the other it has brought in from britain or show shelly rooted in japanese life the concept of parliament through evolved over centuries in britain was something that had not been deeply absorbed and above all you had as in

germany very very strong sense of nationalism sense of being a latecomer sense of having been intrude upon suffusing the political life to pay so in fact our main nerve with the oligarch is maneuvered the vision restoration and it was a combination of there those leaders of those nationalist in military leaders and their rural political strength which was the test would predominate and not any new middle class that have in fact shaped this first phase of a formal a japanese now to turn to another contemporary crisis a crisis in that kickoff if you wish to regard as i think you probably can rolling crisis culture revolution in china as a

constitutional crisis in particular time we have the kid aborted takeoff really an excessive allegations a military and an ineffective agricultural policy for senior in very considerable resources to be used to purchase grain abroad and a failure to bring into the agricultural life in china yeah a conservation scale the dynamic elements which are transforming agriculture in pakistan for example korea significant parts of india that center movie news prices rose a lot of loans dissatisfaction with the with congress in the late nineteen fifties a decree of the great leap forward i guess the warnings of the soviet union it was a rational way to

move great leap forward was a failure and then the russians withdrew their very very substantial aid in the collapse of the great leap forward but also it plunged china into a major economic crisis it's set back in the early sixties i love it chilly mid passage and taken off to take off which was not promising because of the character of agriculture parts economically if you wanna get a sense of these are a very raw figures to give you a sense of of that what were china is now as opposed to ten years ago calories per capita may be something like two thousand as opposed to about twenty three hundred years imports are about the same level a little less say they had been a nine fifty million as

opposed to begin at the peak in the late fifties that the reversal of the proportions of trade trade with the communist world was three billion both ways and the late fifties and it's now about a billion trade to the mountainous roads no three billion was that yours magnitude of trade know words have not increased over ten years close down from about three hundred billion two hundred million tons i'm a little suspicious of that because i never really believed quite the three hundred billion and figure that was in nineteen fifty nine billie cases don't think so samantha says down a little twelve to eleven pounds engineering goods actually like locomotives down severe blake cotton production down from about seven point five billion yards of the measurement to bout for

a paper up a little one point three to one point five million currently metric tons into areas of an increase in these ten years one they've discovered well and there are more self sufficient oil production stopped and verse they have introduced in the spirit and quiet way that one thing it's absolutely essential for the future of china's modernization wages increased application of chemical fertilizers an increased chemical fertilizer production is going up maybe from two to five million times this was done without great fanfare but it partially explains why they've been able to do they get by without this population increase without starvation and death rapidly expanding at least imports from store owners the nature of this crisis is i think unique because what now is

doing essentially is resisting it the coming to power of the union that he himself created they're grows and as they turn for a revolution and more to running a country in the fifties a group of of technicians and bureaucrats politicians system was geared to this country to run the biggest country in the world most difficult and one could see the beginnings of the emergence of a man with all the the normal kinds of attitudes ago with professional was all the things that i described by our sociologist says the attitudes of a moderate as opposed to traditional approaches to problems in terms of

professionalism and performance and the secular values and out now perceive this law is ed he was temporarily the position of some of these out of the lt leonard power the early sixties intimate interview about rowing at which the road to the university and its and previous remarks about three years and now who knows great surprise exploded athens university it's the top end of soviet revisionism and all things that powerful admirable some of the training of technicians engineering and science and saw images things are now didn't often so the grandfather reached over the heads of his children and grandchildren and get them all excited and the cultural revolution and try to recapture that

we deserve life of his own youth who does own youth and out dropped a major crisis of political and economic tools country cultural mission has really subsided but the crisis is unresolved on the political matrix for china moving forward into its modernization does not yet exist i don't know either case quite like this in the history of politics in modernization feeling is that at some stage or another similarly the those who are committed to making a modern china in terms that we would recognize will emerge but when i'm by what route it

with what for the torment witness can say i believe this discussion now and pick up with some reflections on latin american chopper if we give you our discussion of fifteen to five