Weather Whys; Weather Prediction 2

This is weather-wise. Computer forecast models that can predict the weather for tomorrow using current atmospheric conditions are a great help to the meteorologist. It would seem computers are paving the way towards the ultimate goal of a perfect forecast. Imagine knowing thunderstorm rains would barely graze your yard from 3.16 to 3.21 PM next Thursday, but a lone lightning bolt would strike your tallest tree at 3.24. Could that type of forecast be available anytime soon? Probably not, since numerical forecasting models are only as good as the data which go into them. Weather observations are taken in many different locations and the computer model must make an estimate about the conditions between the reporting stations. That type of incomplete data introduces errors into the calculations. In other words, if you can't plug perfect values in, you won't get a perfect forecast back. So while we may never be able to predict every passing shower and gust of wind, computer

models can often give a relatively good picture of the weather situation 3-5 days in advance. But forecasters don't rely on that alone. In fact, meteorologists often look at the forecasts made by several different computer models to aid them in making their forecast. The weather professional also considers his past observation of how the model performs in his area. For instance, if it usually predicts too much or too little rain or forecasts temperatures that are too warm or too cold, he can adjust his thinking accordingly. So, while numerical weather prediction is a valuable aid to the modern meteorologist, it can never completely replace years of experience and personal observation. Otherwise is produced by KGOU Radio at the University of Oklahoma in cooperation with the School of Meteorology and the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms. So whether wise, I'm Drew Barlow.