Countdown to Election Day

they're two thousand twelve election is just two days away and by most accounts is still too close to call i'm kate mcintyre and today on k pr presidents campaign two thousand twelve from the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas will hear political strategists from both sides of the aisle make their predictions for election day and hear what's going right and what's gone wrong with the presidential campaign november first event feature richard martin david kemp thinner mr pham and was moderated by dole institute director the only thing we get something going on and the national election last scene early on in my lifetime that system gentlemen in state and national polls are really wilson wrote today in the national journal strategists on both sides acknowledged the difference in their internal polling republicans believe democrats are counting for too much of low propensity voters in a booming minority turnout that isn't going to materialize incredibly republicans are hopelessly reliable electorate looks for more water party and the nation as a

whole i will no longer very way probably today's indictments of individuals david camm singer runs a lobbying and consulting firm in topeka he served as governor brown bats chief of staff and has run several republican campaigns asians ruby is false as false be used for their goals during its residents are every bit of the local weather is an excellent actor which explains voting for victory ah the potential factor because i'm going to be true that run into a makeover in the states decide the election obama

for woodley is the voter contact campaign that the obama hopes of findings it is doing what it's designed to do that while adele for what could be a national movement against it and still succeed because you know the proponents of my car and it says it was any of the wineries of macro pieces and my first dentist but it would be wrong to suggest that that will be true and the explanations to point to one is unclear one point mark something is a democratic political consultant he has worked on four presidential campaigns and managed dozens of democratic congressional and state wide campaigns i think there is something going on that that we've never seen in a presidential campaign and involve a lot of them

we want to start the round are basically the daily call it has not stopped and the intricacy on various levels of how that has been put together i think you're starting to see when my i went without question shouldn't see it emerge in florida for the first time since there's been early voting for democrats are holding their own possibly winning in ohio early voting she used to be about a two one margin in favor of obama in ireland and the numbers of people who were really voting art store the last three years mr close to that in ohio for four years starting later these things that last saturday's show it won't be quite as extraordinary but i think that there is external

it is affecting particularly those swing states that we've been doing a lot and presidential campaigns for a long time this is i think the first time that anybody thought that we've actually have ignored or grassroots effort in a presidential campaign i think it's the best for scientists is working so i think the caribbean in two thousand eight and then falling of two thousand almost it's the one where he's made the least what events voting in maryland were standing in the afternoon at all so that lends support your boss where the obama campaign is not invading its orbit to do it that you would be doing two thousand eight there is a trial for the controls off would you guys sing about

has been a lot written on like that the president's enjoying advantages in early voting but not nearly as strong as two thousand and eight well in two thousand am and i think the records show that the mccain campaign drop of all with respect early voting the obama campaign denied richard martin is a democratic political consultant based in kansas city he has served as campaign manager on several missouri races and ran the clinton gore re election campaign in missouri in nineteen ninety six they need to be very seriously and it was a major focus of their ground game from the beginning in the mccain camp campaign that are again today on many different shows but the romney may campaign is not making them to stay so while the advantage might be somewhat in favor of obama the romney campaign is clearly making an effort in early voting and that's evident most of the states where there is easier again mark i would also point out that there's been a lot of talking to

people that the issue of who are these people who are we're going to try and i think this is going to be i'm going to my perspective i'm not sure when they're on the wrong side of this is working but i know that there is very specific target and who they're pushing generally the people who are really good or people were less likely to make quite frankly i mean why was this year for the first time and she hated because she likes to go and i think most people who vote every year like to go over there but the people who are the people that the obama campaign had his party now or a considerable amount longer than the romney campaign can possibly have because they started literally out in full force to your two years offices in ohio which two years they have a

hundred and thirty nine offices in ohio compared to the same is true in iowa since june four the extraordinary upper that is going into the obama i think something we're going to be writing and reading about yours here's your second as sandy struck given the president's chance to go bigger to be more president at a democratic consultant and someone to try to look at this objectively it felt to me like romney clearly had the momentum in his favor and has had since the first debate i don't think despite what the obama campaign claims that that slowed by chapter of age to agree but i do believe that you know hurricane sandy and the response to that new media attention not just get into what the president's been doing that the attention journal focused on this major

disaster or a major orson of our country it just takes you know it takes president can only really changes people's views i think it was at that moment was true which i felt like it was pretty powerful i think that if nothing else it's been blocked at whether it's enough to change that woman amen change the outcome will will say wednesday morning it's clear the obama really thinks again david can figure you sing it here in femur small spokesperson president sort of use the phrase we will move forward and that's borrowing from the campaign itself also sloman of msnbc slogan of the service employees international union organs of what they clearly think those benefits to it but david suggested by that that they are that they are overly kind of politicized this and

i don't think that that's really i will go well and suggests the people who work in the white house you know there's a lot of attention to what the president says he doesn't know what i'm prepared to restore credibility but when you say will you rather not to be given speeches in ohio are flying down the border when it was i mean they basically stopped everything they were doing to address the crisis and now i by the way i haven't seen any of the rhetoric that he's made he suggested i haven't seen the lead fourteen ivan watson's very closely obama leaned forward said the fox the uk saw her to have the optics on the syllabus the us are wrong the horrendous box i don't think he did well in that box given his storm relief event in ohio a couple

days ago you probably should've done nothing for the chaplain but i think more important than maybe just the optics of the president being the president christie and then the president together takes a very important where arrow out of his whole thing is elected me and i will work with the democrats be bipartisan which is what most people in america why they want to be able to get things done in this country which hasn't been done for a while and i think everybody knows that and to see one of the president's most ardent critics and one of romney's wealth and romney's first worse to come out of a compliment and and and work with him i think at a couple that with one thousand words and

that you're starting to see an opportunity for the president to look as though he can be bipartisan warriors which takes away a very important and from our don't think that americans expect governor christie to work with the president on a sunny he's leaving after his own state's interest is suggesting that he would say mr president we don't want the federal aid new jersey will but i don't think that it would also be a lot has gone out of his way to call up and that's it and i think it's i don't think it's political at of the kids i think he truly believes i know but when i

actually got to know and i can tell you to your point about people in the white house knowing selection part of them knowing his election because they know that this is this is what this meant that this is being able to are taking in all the at all the data and make a forceful forceful position to go a direction with focus is something that this man is particularly good he may not be great politics he may not be good at telling people the good things that he's done in a way that makes people think they're good clearly obamacare didn't turn out that way but when it comes to a crisis or a situation where it requires watson and an important decision this is where he's going to i think the people in the white house no you put them in charge of this crisis he will look at the one that and that's who we are and building owners now to be fair to compare this to katrina but if you look back on her

trailer you certainly didn't have governors in presidents of different parties working very well together when there was a lot of finger pointing that was going both ways and that you know he can't i want them all a matter of the government that there was clearly a lot of finger pointing this has been a different experience to do it well there's different category five working at the city's most of us see what working its place is awesome it was i'd never heard the president describes the organisation skills that prevent him from spreading all good things i don't hold president was he was so inspired me to be a great thing i don't think cicero exploring the employment income republicans members of his administration compounding the problem i would say that his economic agenda in nebraska bob kerrey former

senator former governor i would repeat what he says was an unusually good liar so says bob perry appeal issues we move along david what you're saying what are you it's delicious everything you have an issue when their intention of pulling people actively seeking work can give six million people right decision full time working with my work and then you got nine million people withdraw forces which is a really devastating it is actually one hundred and fifty thousand were people working off for most of his term a new orleans the senate we'll have the narrator is the same and the same and decide which means the workforce has been growing for years despite the population growth nine million people

looking for work and they're overwhelmed and get people working and working hard for i think it's really about the people dropping out of the workforce is again mark brown a year ago retirees the most minority in our history are people retiring record that people leaving the workforce not because they can't find work or leaving the workforce because they're retiring and people are filling those jobs all as they retire the unemployment rate is not necessarily reflect that some millions of all possible that i'm not saying that the president was

not that which you and were getting out and most polls show that the majority of the population believes that things are getting better and that things are going to get into your lips well what i would say is just in responsiveness and i you know the as i look back on this race in the four years that we've been through and you know four years ago today obama had a six point eight percent lead a years ago bush had about a one percent lead to think that an incumbent president given all the challenges that obama faces some of which he brought upon himself and the unemployment rate which is still high as david went out to a lot of people that went looking for work it's remarkable to me that this race is still basically passes and i think that's really more of the story it's like how is it that you know here we are on the first day before the election and no one knows who's

going and it really is common it's really come down to six days and people wanna say it's just so i'll actually more than just ohio but it's remarkable to me that there are still undecided voters and that we don't know who's gonna win and i would bet you a lot that we won't know until wednesday morning that i think is a wednesday morning i don't like wearing know here in the midwest ahmed midnight is one election and that says a lot to me you know that it has a lot of overall and until the first debate this race was over obama was going with us to talk about that for a second it's one point one thing to agree with it intellectually there's no president or navarro is since fdr that an economy like this has stated his creative visions

we firemen richard by variation point to human scale that really casts up my next question the debates this year the debates are widely perceived as having been more important they normally are in presidential campaigns be violent there's no question there's no question the new the young the romney campaign was tom conway loose cannon arm on the titanic and now we didn't get it i was shocked myself and i really as a democrat than american first i wanted a strong campaign from the right one and to have a debate on issues i was encouraged when he picked romney ryan as a running mate is about that would encourage that but he was lost wasn't say and that first debate was stunning i mean he just came out and appeared to be somebody that i didn't recognize and this is before that some of the

policy changes that he took on later he just appeared to be solidly in control of the issues he look presidential so i'm going to go back to my first real action which was nineteen eighty when reagan took the harder and i think in those debates again we have those debates were so important that the country was off track just like they are we are today by most measures and we were looking for change but we weren't sure about the challenger and reagan performed brilliantly in those debates and in present an option to the american people that ultimately proved to be enough i think that's what these debates are done again i'm a democrat i thought obama came back and an extremely well minutes to and what what i've said from the first of a day game on we have a race we haven't we have a clear choice between kind of ideologies and directions and i think it's going to be it's going to come down to the wire the one of the closest races again david camm thing earning in seoul on the first of a point of going or

because of how badly he was doing before our immediate he watched this convention along with the book they have a cleaning service you're right but when you think about it other than you know obama now other than the obama being so that principals and school i do remember one moment that won critical moment i think you talk about that what i remember about that

when that that they started bombing obama just did he chose not to respond to that once which was a solid bible the anti he had very good and i think something mr riyadh disagree from now on a vote for obama or romney is notable for something that any of us can say changed our minds now we're going to change your mind even now are not here to change minds are here to analyze what you see tuesday go another point that that we're just part of arguments that mean essentially the president when he's defined political gravity in the pace of economic figures now bring back a us back around to his ground game called all three of you at all about that very clearly the enthusiasm his own republicans that yet that really are talking as it even though that is the case and also require a showing

the work permit and that includes a variation on the three are saying that really doesn't know i'm never going to win this case you're basically saying he's going to defy historical political gravity and if there's one piece of historical writing is not fine if you were away and that is you as a primary and incoming presidents are challenged within your own party are hugely successful and if you remember four years ago george w bush wasn't very popular wasn't doing really great and a lot of people thought going about elections no way this guy's going to win a second term and he did and that he was in primary like his father was that began so you're you're given a lot of room to get right in to get your campaign or when you're not having to face the primary meanwhile while your opponents are our being the crap out of each other you know on tv every single way which is what romney had to deal with the most important reason i don't have

that who's voting is a local councilman mike pence is the person to show support for supporters anyway which is now being an all out though or is that song otherwise would know which is the development as morgan freeman did not like i don't have invaded you delivered i think everybody within the democratic establishment in washington that focus on this arm understands that to turn out voters really who will vote anyway on that one particular home because particularly democrats who you know larger turnouts so i i can say with a hundred percent certainty that they are turning out minorities and people but i can tell you that they're turning out minority

voters in the polling and i have a couple questions before we break the q and a bedouin star rick no when you start with that hit david marx thought so now you grandmaster mccaskill parade figure the odds are variations in the new year like this simply because republicans nominated the wrong candidate freedom i casing nominated that my party republicans will nominate the wrong candidate two years ago in delaware nevada colorado this year and misery and ninety five for fighting that's a that's a very important trend to pay attention to and you know having watched missouri trend more red since i've been working there for twenty years

now i think the one thing that has prevented it from becoming another kansas is that the fact that the rebels while republican vying over an ideology and consultant power and they tend to beat each other up in these primaries fighting have over turf war who's in charge of her own which consultant which factions here and that is never good for a car and winners so that's allowed democrats again and maintain a pretty good beachhead there and we still out for first five of a you know a statewide office offices and even though we don't have the house or the senate but they've seen a lot and in serving more more so two years ago than this year but that the tea party influence and i might recover is a powerful influence and i don't think it's going managers day and i think you know kansas has more experience with those kinds of schisms within its own gop and prevent any place in the country

and the republican party had to figure out how to build and down out how to dominate votes they can win national elections one of the passengers what we've all talked about what means like i don't think there's anything that presents with someone republicans although an intricate york is ninety five percent probable that rich data set every precinct in america every two years festival form across so they would not testify had to imagine the president wins the presidency to humans it'll all three republicans maintain was going to jordan would be an historically in the houses and you have no recollection which is this unusual improv which is you have the sense that what you're saying about what your soul

but it doesn't you see it ought to be that way in the senate as well if you have say that was invented or rights right or a liberal or the satellites to zoning disproportionate numbers of low population states republicans should say that they're doing an astronaut incentive because it's more an asset and to many a couple of them and actually it's not just taken an issue is not a candidate the republican party probably wanted in the rest of its title is the problem i would say that in arizona flake the tea party standard unit was up against two of the candidates running it does

the numbers in the house and it's hard to keep track of the astonishing to think that democrats picked up seats in the wall says the way and there are number of the tea party people that came in two years ago that are questionable at this point but i would be shocked if there's a production of the senate i think it's interesting and i think that the way it's all coming down i think it was i think it's possible the democrats could holders usually don't get work i think it's also possible that we give it that it could be about a fifty one and i don't think it's possible at this point the republicans that there is a time for the republican party to go back to the old build but over the most conservative candidate the primary again when the gene worked up i mean i'm old school in that sense i think that one of the reasons really can

pay is to win the election but you might gain political power so he turned to look at it just eighty percent people at every level politics in some people think that the reason we have a fight in politics mostly is that have a different vision for the right thing and that's what's going to have a bit to relieve some people think rightly that practice or that the inspiration and the most excited about the republican nominee and it ends a two time once that what we just heard from he defeated in the senate richard lugar with six through nine states a rhodes scholar former minneapolis into elections in the air for three years writing twenty one and this is not this is not a row and the first thing he said in just to richard murdock and they reversed it comes up first thing he says is a full about and then

he says it really careful about this issue for about what well that you know and they didn't say why i mean the guy's been around missouri politics for twenty thirty years it was like six times that the us was a liking this came out of nowhere in a strange place and i know i will moderate republican friends and misery and i always struggled to find one that would say yo yo ma di is one of my guys were trying to help them and i really believe in him he was among his own id one woman says we have a pope and one of the things art institute was the best republican

candidates are the right hardware stores for the military or fulltime will weather in michigan and so coyle says his view or disagree with because government reforms a more actual governance more social democrat or for social media disproportionate share of most democrats were the republicans then going to use a realtor rahm emanuel when he was the head of the sec and then later when he became president he started to the detriment of good candidates that that threaten to lawyer up against but he's actively recruiting veterans and so ann and because of that in a way that he

cultivated a field of candidates in each of the races that oh six and in la and that's where you really saw the second amendment they did i mean they had the right message they have the right to have the record so now they're the right tone they develop a really great candidates to run for those offices in and i would argue that that's why they took the majority of our six injected in la and partially won lost and doesn't turn as we didn't have that same focus with advancing tenor would have had the same message ok last question and opened up to that unit from all of the rest the guests come in on three on we got a battleground poll this week they're proud also from olympic bids that you got nate silver new york times saying there's now i seventy nine percent chance the president's going to be really the first question is who's going to

win second question is is there a possibility of a split between the popular in the electoral vote third question is which they out there could surprises in terms of the electoral vote and i'm going to join you in answer this question a moment ago life is going to be really easy i think is going on because of the award from the latest group politics staples and it's pretty clear to me but the trend important it was starting to go his way in and the states that the selection you know you talk about the different general election polls

there are also i mean i can gallop since been heller and and i don't know i'm not sure why but everything else has it pretty much even an opera what the data match before sandy the second big getting the sections worth second question was to be resistant went running out to earn electoral votes i would say that before sandy i think sandy i disagree over with richard i think it actually does dramatically i think in the last week of the campaign most at this campaign have to be won in the last week and it looked like a longing have the possibility of new jersey i think cyndi and i think that the president what presidential you it's bipartisan and he's looking at what the president and i think that the tribulations of that campaign by anyone who

makes a difficult one to host the attacks in and make a contrast that he would like to be so i think that i think of course i would have said that it is possible that that the fed is there a state where you know it really depends on and i think pennsylvania and i think you know it all right friends and family that i remember when i was with the question mark of privilege two thousand very involved in the place and maybe get remarkable things by registering voters in the story and let's not forget something is not an effective place in philadelphia and parts to power and by by refocusing that the apparatus that

that has traditionally in pennsylvania in and for democrats that means the law and southeast i think it's possible and i think that on it's often spends part of why i think it's not necessarily because they wanted somebody in their whole seem to be a will the tigers but i think what's interesting is that i'm saying that casey is in single digits the cases in single digits that means to me that regular life and that in fact is that could be a surprise you think of minute possibly could go wrong if there is a shocker or is there a possibility there could be electoral votes but the russian orphans possible if you've seen it recently but it does get more likable wins the electoral

college and romney wins the popular vote it's over actually as it was written following the permutations he runs out and says this is the show a chance that it could have been a more remote i think a lot of people ah and in the third question that has that state that might give us a wisconsin law specifically we want to talk about how a bomb squad foreign fighters work on the ground if there's anywhere where republicans and the forces right it had invested in ground and vote for unproven fields that has cost over the reports that you've seen over the past eighteen months i so who's anywhere with his ministry horrible mess that you live under fire in return it in wisconsin was going to man all right it political action when we got the golden circle about was from archie to step in college enrollment opens the paul ryan he'll be strong for me i said see i was right

i think that its popularity is going to win i've heard you look at it's over stop encouraging look at the real clear politics the injury getting more measles again people betting their own minds and most rational markets are very good information i'll say this it will impose its own just one percent chance romney wins i think what i think intrigues about thirty six percent wrong and that means if you win this election and romney wins very successful and by no means things that god's favorite point what it was like those this for sports is waffle fans you need what game is just for the point again until the projects on the likelihood that we are going to shop at the team that he's behind in a projection late to forgo income women but i would not disagree with those three people but if romney wins doesn't the mullahs will have thirty six percent chance of something happens and it happens with a new rule and that's what the number of your future for clutter

of lots of a changing the guard happens all that imagery on the wall now the tanker heard you say that involves a particular allegation of debate dr rivlin well who was president was always never pick a fight with you and that music you know and not say obama is at home even really be meow surprise because by the way martin you know i don't disagree what i said earlier was i felt like the momentum was clearly in romney's favor until sandy and i i was telling my friends than i am i said eat even in some media outlets i thought running away as well as retailers last thursday that i just couldn't understand how you know in an election where

people want change we were the right track wrong track numbers are where they are and where the unemployment rate is where it is that somehow ohio was going to be as a beachhead for obama in eunice somehow prevent them from losing the selection sany then comes along and obama is trying to do so when you look at the electoral votes now and we all do this every day with a real clear politics which aggregates all the polling from every state we really have down to six states like i said with obama over to forty three to thirty three and if he wins you know ohio and we know one another so but i can see something still not working out because i am not been involved in a lot of ground and my background in politics is on the field sighed there clearly is not the same level of enthusiasm for obama but that was four years ago so i didn't translate that into a

victory on election day i think the only way we'll do it is is that there's all the same lack of enthusiasm on the republican side so that they're you're turnout in your base and your people don't churn out any crazy numbers so it looks like obama's know when you get rid of the electoral college is what it is i do think the popular vote is definitely up for grabs and obama would lose that finally i agree with david i think wisconsin could be the surprise but and a final note on this would be my advice i would give to anybody who are run for president again when making candidates for vp you can't guarantee you they will win that state you know it does it's we've done this now i think a hundred years you know if you if you pick somebody from a swing state make sure you pick somebody who can win a war ii there were plenty of state choices for romney which is that would

help him win that state instead he thinks ryan doesn't really have a local wisconsin has one congressional district out of like seven or eight and you know anything is a slightly polarizing figure in the rest of the state so i think that we actually want to post mortem season is a brilliant young guy but you know he can delivery in the state either white think anybody for bp at a more be a contrarian on tonight and i i i am going to pick along the way and if anybody knows where you can bike rotella barber valerie coaching my mother by some on wednesday so i can have that on not on next wednesday abbott secondly i think there could be and i think they're very easily could be a situation where the president wins the electoral college in the vote and third album agree with david and richard own wisconsin but i have one of the fact that the chairman of national unity then an open up your questions answered via

if you're just joining us today as kbr present is a pre election panel on the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas featured guests include political strategist richard martin david can see her and mark start now take questions on the audience my question is what i'm asking you because you're all white wine is that with the white male and it's actually the ones that don't have a portal education are they opt for all romney because they are braided because their races aw what are some of the reasons that they are voting for romney in such big numbers because he really doesn't tell us but it's already inside but i don't think in the resident losing the well the

money is an arm and i frankly i don't know be honest like i don't i don't think it's about race i think it's a message that the democrats are getting some computers that we've been losing them of what our long and you're my questions about how we talk about hurricane sandy in fact really affect international perception of the president what i'm asking about how circuits in the affected voter turnout and particularly states though they largely have a very large wave this was an initial disaster is and how they affect like the use of color low income communities on a greater scale necessarily in those tend to vote democratic as well so how is the president's strategy were looking towards tuesday

in dealing with this disaster well the unusual circumstance there is that the state primarily event like sandy are democratic debates there on in life once again richard martin reiter there are no a presidential campaign is being waged in maryland and new york new jersey delaware the states or the democratic call so nbc being the others you know primary care virginia was a little that was a playful that the state of the only employ as i don't think it's doing it impact turnout i think it's slowed down moments of the early voting but at the end i think turnout in those days were very very high speed and the intensity of the presidential campaign on both sides i am a moderate republican for one day i was at a party a month ago top thirty people mostly democrats forty and i didn't bring up the issue of connie yeaton the deficit no i thought that might change might

go there into the world and these women were intelligent my question why one thing a lot in this election i cry or a thing as close as was the most larger base is at the end the economy jobs also living at about fifty five sixty percent were terrible irony states not to burn with the public that has seven percent gdp yeah i mean you know that's one of the hardest things i think as a consultant in campaigns is a tight understand that whole violence issue you know what what allows you to when that person is your opponent i think because most voters will get all

politicians through a fairly critical lens they're not looking at them as the most respected individuals they think they're very subtle in that regard and so a lot of cases so i'm curious as to your question given these two men you know how are the values differ between these two men i i find no difference at all but what i argue is sometimes with my very hard right republican friends media they may be very much believe that and i've had this argument my mother just three weeks ago that there that obama doesn't have a tape at all and there's you want to say it was a muscle that she could she do that would be too much but when we finally got in the latest thing she said i just don't believe he has anything at all and to her that is the diners what i said mom based on what will never seen the jurors george w bush was elected because of better smarter and you had to

because these are going to feel comfortable going ahead or he look like it was uncomfortable carrie was kind of the same way a minute a city he looks to people like he was doing what other people were telling him to do and said romney has been doing the same thing and it's uncomfortable and i think that ultimately the american people and that's it they reason how people it may not be just values that about something it's about understanding how somebody feels about about living in their own skin and and i think that basically the situation in any endeavor in short there is no substitute for the two most successful are political

figures of what role rental car and to me the predictable income it's low being president and they love running and it showed they were wounded in the job i wouldn't leave it in the question but here at the cure for being here you are basically agree that governor romney changed the game so looking back on the election on tuesday if obama does still managed to hold his presidency and went like you're all predicting where you attribute the campaign's success other than that they are means is there any way that you could say well they want you to get the team gets the editing something happens there was a lot of that had an effect which might otherwise have been foreseen let's not take away from acting work and what the obama campaign is the most successful presidential campaign in american history that's a pretty good measure because of the situation actually gotten through two thousand years ago

you really really are what was a popular vote or think about fifty one million about the songwriting is still changing right before despite big increases in public in two thousand stories about to explode and voters obama particularly on the biggest jump was actually twenty thousand tickets for more money in the process of unknowns or the processing prison alarm to discredit are developing people have more information more customers information to win for a president at sixty two billion into the shattered the previous record obama and sixty seven and all over people who have worked very hard to see what will actually succeed as a campaign

professional it to say that someone to be the law that the law or whoever wins this campaign and i'm liane i think there's three things also gone on you know don't ever week we know that we don't say as frequently or remind yourself the power of incumbency is incredible right to me you know whether you believe the media is totally biased or not you know whoever's president gets a lot of press its cover of everything they do and then the bully pulpit allows you didn't do a lot of things that's one thing to like i think the the republican primary was difficult i don't think it was a good experience for the republican party to have to go through it like they did i think it would just it just wasn't as clean as they would've liked and it took a long time for romney to finally find it is funny then thirdly and i think this is a lasting trend that we're really talking about three years to come and that's the demographic trend in this country you know

there is a growing latino population in this country and right now and george bush did a great job of uphold debating and talking to that community the republican party to be successful in a national election law enforcement have to figure out how to talk to my community better that's just the facts that theory or who went on to this is a lesson alright he would you and particularly to have the republican party continued that the trajectory of what reagan started i think we've been seeing and messaging map here and that knowledge in your life and one of the markets where the more religious demographics within our country that one of the most patriotic demographic group of their country so the republican

party ought to be getting fifty percent of the latino vote they just have to figure out how to talk about immigration without making it look like you know you're all here illegally and getting along and you know their figured out i believe that but i don't think it's that difficult and i do believe that the latino voters want that they don't want to be i don't want to end up looking like they're a block of votes for one party or the other and quite frankly they're very disappointed that there's been very little discussion from obama and his campaign on latino issues and if questions don't belong in your store but as proposed for women i think men telling women what they should be thinking or what their bodies are zooming presuming to know is not a good idea

to have one last question here that one right here he talks about the difference between the popular amateur live there's also the potential that electoral the title outright israel has a little bit less likely but it is possible so i wondered if you would address that just briefly and whether or not you think it's time for electoral going to go away for the us representative every state delegation which won book the state of south dakota the same boat that california republicans jarring i think about thirty ones that are presumably wild woman that's right all know instantly with a little of what your local choirs views won a national campaign for one national office because of our system system you can't run a large margin in one region and republicans and so what you really have to go out there and when you know and when

this and if the president successful because he won states of little colonial juarez and i think it's good for one national requiring not a regional campaign kansas doesn't matter now it's dry is it really an in iowa colorado and no score i won one thing that we all agree on is the president's plan for years ago this forty ones tuesday it is gonna be another big historical and find a lot of political gravity thank you that you've been listening to campaign two thousand twelfth any election preview from the dole institute of politics at the university of kansas featuring political strategist richard martin david kent singer and marks on this event was moderated by dole institute director bill lacy i'm j mcintyre kbr prevents is a

production of kansas public radio at the university of kansas to be sure to tune in to kansas public radio on tuesday evening for a special election night coverage from npr