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How to sue O'Connell. This is the Kelly Crossley Show. A specter is haunting Rhode Island the specter of not communism but something just as red Republicanism GOP political operative Ken McKay is plotting to shatter the state's one party rule. Today the Republicans don't have a single state. My post its fundraising efforts are feeble. Its presence in the general assembly in significant but McKay is aiming to breathe life back into the ailing elephant by way of a data driven voter file. A sprawling database of registered voters political leanings voting histories if this can help him land a congressional seat and a governor's office. He could turn the tide on the blue Democratic wave that has swept the Ocean State. From there it's another edition of New Hampshire insiders. Up next we're talking politics from the Ocean State to the Granite State. First the news. From NPR News in Washington I'm Lakshmi Singh. Indian television is

showing images of carnage in Mumbai. The city was rocked by three explosions today in a crowded neighborhood and a bizarre during evening rush hour. At least 13 people are dead and more than 80 are wounded. Mumbai was the site of another major attack nearly three years ago that was blamed on Pakistani based militants. It's day four of debt negotiations at the White House. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is proposing a backup plan that would let the U.S. avoid default as negotiations with Democrats in the White House stall ahead of a Treasury Department deadline. NPR's Paul Brown reports McConnell's proposal would allow an increase in the debt limit while protecting Republicans from political responsibility for raising it. McConnell says he wants a measure making the president responsible for upping the debt limit legislation giving the president the authority to request of us an increase in the debt ceiling that would take us past the end of his term. The president tells CBS he still offers a combination of spending cuts and tax

adjustments. People like myself who can afford it put a little bit of revenue in so that we don't end up having to put the entire. Burden of dealing with this debt on the backs of middle class families and seniors and students. And poor kids. Lawmakers return to the White House for more talks today. Paul Brown NPR News Washington Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke he's warning Congress against allowing the government to default on its obligations otherwise he says it could trigger a crisis. The Treasury securities viewed as the safest most liquid security in the world is the foundation for much of our financial system. And the notion that it would become suddenly unreliable and illiquid would throw shock waves through the entire global financial system. Now Bernanke he says there are measures a central bank may be willing to take if the economy doesn't pick up momentum and that sent stocks rising at last check the Dow is up one hundred thirty six points to twelve thousand five hundred eighty three. President Obama's re-election campaign says it raised more than eighty six million dollars over the spring.

NPR's Peter Overby says that number is more than double the total race so far by all the Republican presidential contenders. The Obama campaign puts the emphasis on its small donors. Here's campaign manager Jim Messina in a video e-mail to supporters early this morning. Five hundred fifty two thousand four hundred sixty two people made a donation to this campaign in the first three months. More grassroots support at this point in the process than any campaign in political history. He said the average contribution was sixty nine dollars. On the other hand about 45 percent of the money was raised at big events for the Democratic National Committee. The DNC contribution limit is more than seven times higher than the $5000 maximum at the Obama Campaign Committee. Peter Overby NPR News Washington. You're listening to NPR News. Two new studies involving heterosexual couples in Africa show that a daily pill can substantially reduce the risk of getting HIV.

NPR's Richard Knox says experts are sorting out what to do with this new information. The new studies involve nearly 6000 heterosexual couples in Botswana Kenya and Uganda have got an antiviral drug to be taken every day. The other half got a sugar pill. Those who got the drug had 63 to 73 percent fewer HIV infections late last year another study showed that a daily anti-viral pill lowers the risk of HIV among gay and bisexual men. The University of Washington which ran one of the new studies announced the results today after an independent board called an early halt to that project because the results were conclusive. The big question now is how to use the information the preventive pill cost as little as 25 cents a day in developing nations. But giving it to everyone who's sexually active may not be feasible. Richard Knox NPR News. Chrysler is recalling more than 240 2000 Ram pickup trucks it's a best selling vehicle because of a steering problem. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says a part near the left wheel can fracture and cause a

loss in steering control. Recall covers Ram pick ups from 2008 to 2011 model years. Chrysler says a few minor accidents have occurred as a result of a steering system issue. At least one person was reported to be slightly hurt. Here's the latest from Wall Street the Dow is up 130 points or more than 1 percent. It's a twelve thousand five hundred seventy seven Nasdaq up one point two percent to 28 17. I'm Lakshmi Singh NPR News in Washington. Support for NPR comes from Lending Tree providing multiple loan offers from a network of lenders. Learn more at Lending Tree dot com or 800 5 5 5 tree. Good afternoon I'm Sue O'Connell in for Kelly Crossley This is the Kelly Crossley Show Well we're talking about politics today. And we begin the conversation in a little Rhodey Rhode Island where one man is aiming to turn the

blue state back to red. And he may even settle for a little bit of purple I'm talking about Ken McKay of course Ken is the chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party. He is also the former chief of staff of the Republican National Committee and before that he was the chief of staff for former Rhode Island Governor Don Carcieri. Again welcome to the Kelly Crossley Show how are you. I'm doing great thank you so your intro there got me all charged up I already know way to go. Yeah yeah you're great. You're a native Rhode Island I think it's important to note that you're not just someone who have has just dropped in and decided to change the color of a state. You know my great grandfather was and was orphaned and came here and started a family business in 1900 that's still going on we have incredibly deep roots here although I've had the pleasure of kind of moving around and getting to experience some different places where my whole family's from here now can you know Boston and Providence and Massachusetts and Rhode Island I think always have this interesting

relationship where. You know the state sometimes couldn't be more different. And sometimes I think that each state really doesn't care what's happening in the next. From that perspective how would you paint for our Massachusetts listeners in our New England listeners what the sort of political landscape regarding Democrat Republican and independent is in Rhode Island right now. Well in Rhode Island I mean you know there are more unaffiliated voters than Democrats and Republicans combined. It's a very independent state and that's why we see a lot of you Republicans do get elected here. And we had the governor's office for the last what 16 years or so to eight years with Governor Allman eight years with Governor Carcieri So it's in two and I like to use this example in 2000 and six the worst year for Republicans nationwide since Watergate. Governor Carcieri was re-elected in a you know what is known as a blue state after a four year public record of battling

kind of the Democrat's special interests he was re-elected. And in the best year for Republicans nationwide in recent history 2010 we lose. So it isn't. It isn't it we don't follow national trends. You know we have an independent voter base and I think that right now most of those people look at the last 70 years of Democrat rule in our general assembly and are starting to say look maybe that's the problem so we're going to focus local. You know and just try to win some general assembly seats and and we're going to have to rely on affiliated independent thinking voters to do it. You know some of my friends who are in New England who who consider themselves Republicans and vote Republican some work on Republican campaigns we often joke with them that you know here in New England you're Republican but in Texas you'd be a progressive Democrat. Can you can you tell me a little bit about your view of the Republican Party both you know as yourself and as the Republican State Committee. How do you see the Republican Party in Rhode Island what are the

values and the planks that are that are key to your being successful Merope Republican Party being successful in Rhode Island. The key is fiscal conservatism in we in Rhode Island that's what it means to be a Republican and to support Republicans. Somebody to take an honest look at our budget and somebody who realizes that you know less government less spending is the key to our future we are. We spend you know we're in the top in per capita spending on Human Services you know welfare and other programs. We're in we are second in the nation in the difference between what we pay public sector and private sector workers. Only Nevada pays their public sector more than we do it when compared to the private sector. So we need to get the spending under control CNBC just had us ranked the 50th worst state to do business in. We're not out harping away on social issues. There's some divide in our party you know there

just like there is at the national level. On social issues you know I don't focus on it. Everybody has their own opinion on those things. And frankly it won't matter if we if we don't have a state after you know when we're all done here. We need to focus on the money and jobs and getting folks back to work. And so that's what that's the plan. You know it's the fiscal issues. So you led into my next question which of course Rhode Island's been in the news just recently regarding the governor signing into law the civil unions bill which would allow same sex couples to enter into civil unions. There's been lots of criticism on both sides of the issues regarding how civil unions is just not enough for a state that's that's viewed as being progressive like Rhode Island and on the other side that that civil unions just should not be gays and lesbians should not be granted any rights in marriage. Is that an issue that you see the Republican State Party just staying out of completely. Or do you see this as an opening to show your New England roots here and

take a leadership role in ushering through same sex marriage in Rhode Island which seems to be a dog that won't hunt on the national stage at the moment for the Republican Party. Yeah I don't you know I have my own personal opinions on it and the party has a position you know we don't favor the passage of a gay marriage or redefining marriage. You know we're conservatives and we like it the way it is and I understand people feel treated unfairly. You know I can't say that I wouldn't feel treated unfairly if I was in that situation I absolutely understand where they're coming from. But I believe what I believe it's but it's a personal belief I mean sometimes I feel like the media down here you know they love to try to pick it apart and say So there's a big divide in the Republican Party. Well the divide is in the Democrat Party. You have all the votes you need but then you have what's going in your intro that were insignificant and not and I didn't I don't I'm not saying that wasn't so. You say you admit you've spotted the truth right. We don't have enough people to really sway the outcome of the thing.

That's from a statistician viewpoint where you know you've got an independent governor who signs it into law you've got polls showing that Catholics are which is a large part of Rhode Island voter ship are not against same sex marriage. And obviously we'd all love to have when we're running a campaign we'd love to have the conversation be about the things that we agree on like fiscal fiscal issues but it's going to come into the campaign don't you see it as a as a statistical opening to really bring those independent voters on to the Republican Party. How how would I do well I mean if you if you were if we switched our position on it. Well if you go back to civil unions for example which which is not marriage and doesn't change the definition of marriage would that allow you a greater slice of the independent voters or does that not matter to you. No I think it would cost us voters it would cost us independence if you don't stand for what you stand for say for what you think people are dying for leadership and honesty. They're not dying to agree with everybody 100 percent of the issues right and they're dying to get away from pandering. So we stay where we are we say what we

think this is what we believe but at the end of the day is that the dispositive issue for the majority of voters people who are actually going to turn out what's the dispositive issue on how they're going to cast their ballot. I think it's jobs and being broke and watching the government keep on spending and spending they just raised our taxes again. So I don't see it that way at all. Then I mean that's the statistical part of it which of course I'm a bit of a statistics geek myself as you can tell I'm already harping on it I want to talk to you we're going to go to a quick break when we come back just about some of the nuts and bolts issues that you're looking at in ways to involve voters potential voters and hopefully folks who will vote for Republicans which is is what you're looking to do so stay with us. I'm with the caudal. I mean for Kelly Crossley I'm with Ken McKay the chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party. We're going to be back after a break so please stay with us keep your dial on eighty nine point seven. WGBH. Support for WGBH comes from you and from Skinner auctioneers and

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There's more than one way to support public broadcasting. For example did you know that you could donate your car truck or other vehicle to WGBH. All you need is a clear title. To sell your car and the proceeds go toward the will even have someone come to pick up your old car at no cost to. Learn more about the program. Him in front he's wrong and he defends my mom. Coming up at 3 o'clock on eighty nine point seven. WGBH. Good afternoon I'm Sue O'Connell in for Kelly Crossley This is the Kelly cross Leigh show if you're just joining us we're all about the politics this hour right now we're in the ocean

state by way of KEN MCKAY The chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party and the man with the plan to turn the blue state back into a red state. Welcome back thanks for staying with us. So you know can I was in the sales world for a little while and I had a sales guy who hated making sales calls this was back in the early 90s. Don't even ask how we got there but one thing that he was good at was doing research and really finding things and I urged him to identify his targets get their facts numbers. Perform or or produce a fax order sheet for special sections that we had and by way of just using the fax machine he quickly became the department leader in collecting ads and ad sales. And I see a bit of you and me together on this page in the way that you are looking at really tapping into some voters who it seems may have been ignored or just aren't being paid attention to or have been a little bit under the radar talk to me a little bit about your strategy for engaging some voters in Rhode

Island and hoping that they will vote Republican. Yeah so I think that nationwide we Republicans I mean the Republican Party represents. The majority of voters on key issues and I think Gallup you'll you'll see like out of you know nine out of ten kind of significant issues people trust the Republican Party over the Democrat Party. And yet we're on a path to defeat. And so you ask yourself well what are you doing wrong. Right I mean look if this was Coke versus Pepsi people like Coke better but Pepsi was going to outsell you you'd see and say Geez how do we fix this. And I look at Rhode Island as a little bit of a laboratory. First I truly believe the facts are on our side. The Democrats have had control of of our state for you know over 70 years and we're the worst place to do business according to CNBC where one of the highest taxed according to the Tax Foundation we lose jobs at an alarming rate you know. So objective Lee we can say there's been a failure at some point. And the question

is why do we keep losing. Well in my opinion we need to organize we're getting out organized at a national level we're getting out organized and on a state level getting out organized so you look at the number of votes you have. You know if there's a million people there's approximately 700000 or so registered voters let's say you know more than 50 percent turnout right you get because it's a presidential year you get 400 and you know 50000 people a turnout. You need two hundred twenty five thousand plus one to win. So what can you do between now and Election Day November 2012 to reach those voters what plan do you put in place. And what I have you know kind of pushed to do is develop a voter file that identifies more than that in calls phone calls door knocks emails cell phone text messages identify every fiscally conservative voter every every voter motivated by a fiscal conservative issue and put them in a Get Out the Vote universe and then turn them out to vote. And if you count heads and make phone calls and build a ground game we're small enough that

that can make a difference and we can win some seats we're not going to win everything but we can win some and become more relevant. And I by the way I think that if there's going to be a successful Republican presidential candidate that candidate's going to have to be completely about organizing to rely too much on the message because we know that people agree with us but you get to do more than that. I know you're a candid guy and I know I know that you've got high hopes. But you know what we what you spoke to a little bit in in answering that question what do you hope the reality at the end of the day for you will be that you have gained. A foothold in the voter's mind that you have been able to to to hack away a bit at the massively long history of the Democratic control of Rhode Island I mean I don't think you'll find many who will argue with you that a two party system or three party system is good for democracy in general. But are you hoping at the end of the day you're actually going to walk away with some elected officials. Oh absolutely. I think that we're going to win a bunch of seats I don't know how many yet I know we have

14 right now that we lost by less than 5 percent. And so if you start there and build on that I think we can win some seats in the general assembly and then. And my hope at the end of the day is that people see OK there's an option. You know there's a viable option presented to us if we don't like the way our government is working we can vote differently every two years. What do you think the Republican Party in Rhode Island has done wrong. You know there's always some soft spots that differ from state to state party to party. Has it been the slowness in the social media. Has it been just not having enough candidates up for challenging the incumbent Democrats is their top two or three that you can point to that that you aim to change immediately. Yeah immediately I think the social media aspect has got to be completely overhauled and that's what we're in the process of doing right now. We are just you know we're really behind in that and we need to get better at it. We also need to get better at creating alliances with affinity groups you know third party groups that are that are motivated on the same issues that

we are. The Democrats have done a great job at that if you look at their relationship with labor. You know when Labor decided that they liked Lincoln Chafee better than the Democratic candidate for governor the Democrats did not win that election. So they have a problem right now with third party groups taking over their party. What we need to do is get third party groups involved with our party. And so that is so those two things I think are the most immediate. And Governor Chafee of course is the non elephant in the room if you will an independent governor who has certainly stuck to his independent roots. I think it's safe to say that here in New England at least when when you say that voters whether they be in Massachusetts or Rhode Island are independent it doesn't mean they're part of the Independent party it means generally that they are on affiliated I assume that it's the same in Rhode Island so it's not as if the governor has immediate access to this vast aligned group of potential voters.

I imagine that that like everyone else your target is going to be on the governor's mansion or the governor's office pretty soon. Are you hoping that you have a team in a bench in a star that's going to be able to come out and be the Republican governor of Rhode Island. I hope that we have a party that can support candidates that decide to run. And that's really what we've lacked. You know when I ran I was the campaign manager for Governor Carcieri in the first race and it was up to us we had to build our own party we had to start from nothing. And I would like to leave behind a real infrastructure a party that was there so that when people decided to run they had a base to run from. It is the talk a little bit it's one point that I glossed over a little bit earlier in the interview and it's one that I don't I don't have a full grasp on. And. Hopefully you can educate me and the listeners as well talk a bit about the financial situation Rhode Island I mean we're all in the same boat but our boats are all different. What are the biggest what's the biggest crisis facing Rhode Island now that there's a Republican solution

for. Well there right now there's just a lack of leadership. That's the crisis. We do not have the people in place that have the gumption. If they if I can you know I don't know if that's the right word or not but the nerve to attack the problem. You know Labor is very very influential in our state house and so the budgets that come out year after year don't do enough to attack the unfunded pension problem they don't do enough to attack the abuse of our disability pensions and then the social service network and the welfare kind of lobby is aligned with them and together they make sure that the money doesn't get touched. Actually they make sure that the money grows in this way every year despite their kind they love to protest it while we're making all these cuts but the budget keeps growing. You know a year ago not a year ago you know six or eight years ago it was about a billion dollars less and now it's you know so where is that money going we're still a million people we had a million people then we got a million people now why do we need more money and. So I think that

you know there's creep built into all those budgets and we don't have the leadership and that's what's lacking. But the biggest problem right now I would say I think the Democrats are actually harping on it pretty well frankly is that the pensions the question is what solutions will they come up with. I think they're going to come up with raising our taxes again just like they did in the last budget. Ken it's hard to build a party without without bodies on any side. And as you pointed out and we all agree there's a large number of unaffiliated voters and in Rhode Island there's been a long history of Democrats being in power. How are you populating on the ground level's on the ward levels on the street levels what's your plan of attack to actually get bodies into the ground floor of the party. Well the plan is to use the organization that's in place and that is one one of the things that I don't think's been you know adequately attacked in the past is we have a think over there's a group for instance called the chairman's caucus so each city in town has a Republican town chairman. And it's been kind of pushed aside and I

think that's the group that needs to be. Given the authority to go recruit the candidates to get their races organized and be supported by the state party. If we do that if we actually treat this as a political organization it's not. We've been so kind of outgunned that what we use the party for is to lob bombs over the Democrats which I'm more than happy to do. I think they've ruined our state. I mean I'm saying I'd like to call it like it is and that's what I think it is. I think they've done it. But it's more than that. It's more than just lobbing bombs it's a political organizing tool and it's got to be used as that and it's going to be focused on in that manner. And if we empower the city in town chairs and get them working together and working with the state party then we can get the best candidates at the local level and we can build power from the bottom of the ballot up. What we've done in the past is waited for a significant. So sorry about that got too close to the mike. What we've done in the past is waited for you know kind of a superstar candidate to get out and then right coattails it doesn't work that way. You have to build from the bottom of the ballot to the top.

Well Ken thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate it. I'll be beating you up in the pages of bay windows on same sex marriage. So stay tuned. OK my friend. Fair enough. Thank you. Thanks for the heads up. Thanks so much for joining us. Ken McKay is the chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party. Up next more politics this time. It's another edition of The New Hampshire insiders will be back after this break. Stay with us. Support for WGBH comes from you and from the Massachusetts Teachers Association reminding everyone that adults play an important role in encouraging children to read. Reading is the key to success so read to your children every day and encourage them to love books. And from Shell Oil Company committed to responsibly harnessing domestic energy and creating American jobs through exploration of the Arctic sea offshore

Alaska. For more information you can visit online at Shell dot us slash Alaska. I'm Marco Werman. Hundreds of millions of dollars poured into Haiti after last year's earthquake and less than 1 percent of it went to the public sector in Haiti. Dr. Paul Farmer says that needs to change if Haitians are to take the lead. We can accompany the Haitian people rather than try to dictate the terms of their recovery to them I think will make a lot of progress a way forward for Haiti next time on the world. Coming up at 3 o'clock here at eighty nine point seven WGBH become a sustaining member of a nine point seven for as little as $5 a month. And you too could play a big role in public broadcasting all through the year and help reduce

on air fundraising each and every month the amount you give automatically renews. That helps WGBH plan better and better plans means fewer fundraisers for your work to help make everyone's day a little brighter. To become a sustaining visit at WGBH dot org. From Japan to Libya to New England we've got your town your state and your world at WGBH dot org. Find the latest news from the sources you trust NPR and WGBH Boston at WGBH dot org. Good afternoon I'm soo OConnell in for Kelly Krause Lee this is the Kelly Krause Lee show well the presidential race is heating up along with the temperatures. There's no end of Republicans tossing their hats into the ring to find out how this race is playing out. We're going to the state that can turn a candidate into a President or into an also ran and of course I'm talking about New Hampshire joined today by radio and TV commentator Arnie Arnesen and Fergus Cullen. He of course

is a public affairs consultant former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party and an editorial page columnist with The New Hampshire Union Leader welcome back to the two of you how are you. Oh great thanks for having expanded time. Well in case you missed the last time you can you can head over when we're finished here to WGBH dot org slash Kelly Crossley and hear some of the great things that have been going on. You know I don't know where to start it's starting to heat up and it's getting very excited so I guess I'll have to start with you Fergus because Michele Bachmann I don't want to talk about her but you can't not talk about her it just it's amazing to me that the folks that are involved in her campaign can't get her on a more tight tight speaking schedule. You know the statements in the news this week about the ex-gay repaired of therapy that allegedly her her husband is running in the counseling center and the happiness of African children when they were American slaves versus today I mean is this got any

traction in New Hampshire or are we just thinking this is buzz that will be gone by the time we all get serious. No I think this is more than the 15 minutes of fame I think Michele Bachmann is a charismatic individual she is high energy she stands out in a field where many of the other not Romney candidates tend to blend together. I've seen her on the stump a couple of times in New Hampshire and this is I think I'm not surprised that she's become a very real factor in this race. In fact I think she may have the impact of knocking Tim Bolen out of the race in another month in the silly Iowa straw poll. So this is more than just 15 minutes of fame for her I believe. But there she have you know Dish will she last. You know it's I can't imagine I think we've all been involved in supporting candidates one way or another that the more they talk the more you realize there's not a future there's not a future for us but you know she is charismatic she is appealing to a certain part of the base. But at the other side of it I can imagine in a general election there being a lot of

support for someone who has such extreme views. Well you know her supporters don't look that far down the road and in fact they wear the scorn as a badge of honor. So every time she gets knocked by the mainstream media is being out of the mainstream. It only makes her supporters like her more. So you know be careful what you wish for right would be my advice to those who are criticizing her. I'm not again surprised to see her rise. I mean if you had told me you know three years ago that Rick Santorum would be in a presidential race and I wouldn't be there'd be another person in the race who I was more shocked by. I would have been shocked myself. But you do have a very deep conservative and I don't mean conservative in the sense of the fiscal conservative but conservative in that other platform of social conservatism. You know that's that's really populating the race thus far. Yeah but but first of all we're right now we're all focusing on Iowa because Iowa is the first

caucus state and New Hampshire is a very different state than Iowa. And just as markets go on because he's written columns about Iowa and Iowa's embrace of people like Michele Bachmann are going to be part of the reason why Iowa is not going to be important in the long run in this presidential campaign. You are looking down the road too. But the fact of the matter is you've got to look down the road because that's down the road we're going to win or lose. Michele Bachmann doesn't need to talk about back. Michele Bachmann can be as extreme as you want because Vander Plaats the former a losing Republican candidate for governor in Iowa wants to be the king or queen maker in Iowa and he's having everyone sign D's of that house that you know if they had only read them they maybe thought twice. But these are vows that are written by someone who wants a very very Christian right fundamentalist candidate and they're going to make it as extreme as possible. And Michele Bachmann is more than prepared to sign on. But here's the clue the clue is Rick Perry because while all these people are going to be

pandering to the Christian Right and. Going to be stepping into the mud up to their thighs Rick Perry is going to wait til all this stuff has already taken place after the Iowa straw poll after the whole marriage about thing has been written and then he's going to weigh in and when he weighs in. If Michele Bachmann is going to take out plenty Rick Perry is going to take out Michele Bachmann because he is the one that the money one that the that most of the candidates are looking to as as I think the big threat on the horizon because he distills all that social agenda. But he's been the longest serving governor you know practically in U.S. history. He's executed more people in the PROVENGE is your middle name is going to love it while he's been governor. And let me just read one thing which is why the Christian right is ecstatic about him when he signed a gay marriage ban into law. Where did he do it in Texas. He did it at a Christian school with Tony Perkins looking over his shoulder and they're all like celebrating. The only thing you didn't have open

was you know the Book of Leviticus like 2013 about you know men should not lie down with men that we wanted to get was missing. So I think we're all talking Michele Bachmann but she's going to be July and August story and Perry is going to be the story for December January and February. Ferguson. Never an election season that's exactly like the one before it. But this go around on the Presidential route the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries are going to be very different for our listeners who may not be completely in step because they actually have a life and they go outside and stuff unlike us. You know what's the big difference this year why. Why are people skipping Iowa and why is it is it in party politics I mean it's what's going on. Yeah. Part A caucus is very different than a primary and you know they often get equated But the New Hampshire primary for example is open to independent voters you don't just have to be a member of the party in order to participate. And so it is more broadly reflective

of a center right coalition than is a caucus which is very narrowly cast tends to be dominated by organized interest groups and in the case of Iowa dominated by evangelical Christian conservatives who. Our news pointed out have social issues for their mind oftentimes. So it's a very different process. And so you've got candidates like Mitt Romney Governor Huntsman from Utah also who are basically skipping Iowa and not playing with these put silly pledges in that kind of thing. I think by the way that's a good strategic decision for those candidates. I think that Iowa really the Iowa GOP really has an image problem in terms of where they stand on the ideological spectrum of the Republican Party. But the New Hampshire primary very different process open to independents. And this year of course with an uncontested race on the Democratic side an independent voter who wants to participate is almost certain to take a Republican ballot and not vote in the Democratic primary. Now Arnie last time I think I was on with you all we were talking about the upcoming Fourth of

July parades and who would be wearing what and why. So I of course was was I wasn't there. I didn't see any parades I'm. Let me just add one more thing to what Ferg just saying about the difference between I want New Hampshire because this is really really important. And that is is that if the lowest church attendance in the United States you need to remember where New Hampshire is we have the second well with a church that you listen to. So I want to let you know that that's one of the reasons why the Mitt Romney and the Huntsman are making a decision to spend their time in New Hampshire and to avoid Iowa because they want to talk about economic and jobs and deficits. They don't want to talk about abortion. They don't want to talk about marriage. They don't want to talk about all the sort of marriage vow issues that are going to be you know a noose around Michele Bachmann's neck when she has to explain it outside of Iowa. Now on the 4th of July on the show where you were for or against but guess where I was I of course went to her because that is the place where if you are a presidential candidate

with an ego you want to be marching in and it turns out it was so depressing this year for good. There were only two presidential candidates that are actually marching in the Amherst 4th of July parade which is a very small number given the number of candidates that are running. It turned out it was Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. Oh my goodness. Now do you need to know what happened. So I'm sitting there and I'm standing there waving at everybody as they're as they're marching down the road. And I noticed Mitt Romney walking now Mitt Romney is only shaking hands on the right side of the room. OK you know what. He's not leaving to right now if you want to both sides. Well there are NO NO NO NO NO So Fergus you need to know what I did I was still in action. So I went to one of the reporters and I said to Kevin Landrigan of the Nashua Telegraph. I said Kevin you know did he only shaking hands on the right side of the road. Tell him he needs to move a little bit over to the left on occasion because it might help him out. So what happened was one of his aides heard me say that the next second later Mitt Romney does a u

turn offs over to the left side of the road to shake my head. And I said was this man could learn you know my work. So I just had to let you know but it was just hilarious because literally he just hung to the right. I mean I understand politically but in a parade not exactly the right. Well I tell you if these parades are going to make or break folks roll we're all in deep deep trouble. So Ferguson what's what's the state of the GOP finances in the state in New Hampshire for the primary are is is there enough support behind the folks that need to be supported is there a scramble yet. Can we predict that someone will be out before we get to get to the primaries. Are you're talking about the state of the finances of the state party is that what you're asking. Well just in. Actually more specifically about who's raising what money. Yes finance reports coming out for all the candidates right now and I'm sure Arnie will point out that President Obama has raised more money three times more money than the rest of the Republican field put together. And that

was not unexpected of course for an incumbent. And Mitt Romney has raised something in the neighborhood of 18 million plus he's got a super PAC that's raised millions more. And he has the strongest financial resources of any candidate. All the rest have you know sort of enough to wage a competitive race in the early states but not more than that. And so you know part of Romney's path to victory is he can win a race in a knockout blow. And he also is equipped for a long slog if it turns into something like what President Obama and Hillary Clinton engaged in last time around. Arnie raze Rick Perry sort of lurking on the sidelines. I do expect that he's going to get in as the governor of Texas obviously he's going to have access to resources financially. Will give him plenty to compete and sort of the selling point on Rick Perry is that he's a candidate who has potential to to unify the so-called money people in the party the Tea Party activists and also mainstream conservatives. Personally I suspect that he may work a little stronger on paper than he may prove. In reality I remember Phil Gramm in

1905 96 when I was a junior staffer for him. Another Texan who had plenty of resources but just could not sell side to Texas and I wonder if Governor Perry might be more like that in the end. We'll see. We're talking New Hampshire politics with Arnie Arnesen and Fergus Cullen. Arnie What about simple a.. Who we mentioned a couple of times you know he's a bit of the sleeper candidate as well and it seems that oh no no no no I think the song for him is. He dared she pulled ahead. You think I don't I don't think he is going to make it. He is putting all his effort into Iowa. He has the largest grassroots organizing team he's hired everybody Huckaby's people you name it everyone is working for him. But despite the fact that he's been around Iowa for so long despite the fact that he has more paid staff in Iowa he is 6 percent in the poll. Michele Bachmann is cleaning his clock in Iowa and I don't see him

finding that knockout punch because every time he has an opportunity to use his spin he basically sits on his hands and that's unfortunate. And just think about it. He's at six percent in Iowa where he spent a huge amount of time Iowa is just south of Minnesota where he was governor. He's running against a congresswoman and here he was the governor of Minnesota. And in New Hampshire where he basically has no staff and very little knowledge here he's at 3 percent. So for all his time and effort in Iowa look what it's getting him. I think the first person to be out will be Tim Polanski. He is putting his stock into the Iowa straw poll. But ask Mitt Romney what happens after you win the Iowa straw poll. You spend a lot of money but it's no cigar. So I think I think he's dead. He just doesn't have someone describe him as tonight and I'm not sure that's exactly the explanation. But that's part of the problem. Fergus one of the exciting things about having elections is you never know what will happen but do you agree with Arny's assessment.

You know I'm a high school dist. trucker on the track and cross-country coach and you know just because one kid has a faster time on paper than the other that we have an expression among coaches that's why you run the race. Since anything can happen on any day I really feel badly for governor plenty because I think he has genuinely done everything you're meant to do as a candidate naturally States he's worked very hard. He does have a good staff in New Hampshire and I think he's been doing everything right there with very little to show for it to this point. And he's unfortunately I think made a strategic error in putting too much on Iowa because it's become a very high risk situation for him there. What if he doesn't win the straw poll what if Bachmann beats him there how does the defeated candidate make the case to donors to the activists who elected officials after a defeat like that that you're going to be the one who will emerge as the principal challenger to Mitt Romney I think it's you can't do it. We've seen this silly straw poll I keep calling it that because it is. Previous candidates of the race Lamar Alexander Dan Quayle Libby Dole all failed

to launch after bad performances in the 1909 straw poll in Iowa. So I think it's a miscarriage of justice of democracy. You know that candidates quality candidates can get knocked out of a race before an actual voter has cast a ballot in a real contest. But that is the risk that plenty is running in Iowa. I had also had a problem Fergus because Didn't one of the staffers say that one of the reasons why Michele Bachmann was doing so well in Iowa was because of her sex appeal. I mean you know and even he had to say no no no that wasn't me I didn't mean it. So he made a couple of mistakes he made a mistake in the debate when he didn't really give a knuckle sandwich to Mitt Romney here he had beat him up the day before. Then he's there in the debate never mentions anything about Obamacare and how it was so closely related to Romney care. And then the day after the debate he then sort of tries to give a knuckle sandwich to Mitt Romney. But when he was standing next to him he cowered. That's not what especially Republicans like. They like someone who's tough they like someone who talks

strong and acts strong. And Polanski hasn't been able to do that. And I think that's part of his problem. And just take a look at the money issue I think he's only raised up until now about four million dollars compared to Mitt Romney's 18 million and up to four million that plenty is race he can't even use all of it in the primary. Some of it is really to be was raised for the general election. So that tells you that he's even money poured to. You know what I didn't get an opportunity to chat with both of you regarding Newt Gingrich which you know is just one of those secret obsessions that I have just watching this paradox known as as Newt Gingrich. He's still in the race. Last time I checked although I don't know what race he's running. Has there been any kind of presence on the ground in New Hampshire. I'll take that as a result. Well he's got no staff I mean he had one of the state's top consultants Dave Carney working for him. Carney is also small world Governor Perry's

principal political advisor and of course all of Gingrich's staff quit on him about a month ago and he's basically carrying his own bags and living off of you know cable news and that kind of thing. Was I disappointed by that outcome. Newt Gingrich is an interesting person with lots of good ideas. I think he adds something to the race. And while you know there's no such thing as a perfect candidate he may have made some mistakes along the way. I would be disappointed if he didn't be able to soldier on and be a competitive candidate in this because I just think he had so much to the race but that's again why we run these things there are always surprises. Candidates who emerge. No one would have expected and candidates who seem to have a lot going for him who just can't seem to pull it all together. Well Fergus I'll tell you that during his his stint as a commentator you know before the campaign there were many times. Where I would be in the car listening to someone speaking and say boy who is that I agree with that it would say oh it's Newt Gingrich. Ideally drive off the road and I'd say Wow I hadn't realized on some issues how

very insightful he is and it's always amazing to me when someone who has a vast amount of intelligence is no arguing that he's a very intelligent man with a great amount of experience and to sort of drive this crazy campaign bus into the ground where as much as it would be great to paint yourself as this outsider because these insiders quit the job. And meanwhile you get a $500000 credit line with with a jewelry store. It just baffles its baffles the imagination. Well you know the dinners the staff used to save at the three filing cabinets in the first two big filing cabinets were labeled Newt's ideas. And then next to it was a very small filing cabinet labeled Newt's good ideas. I don't think that's entirely kind to him or her but if you like the guy just generates ideas he is always interesting. I go out of my way to see him speak whenever I can just because he's a stimulating person to hear. But it's more important to remember that those people that were supporting Newt Gingrich's senior staff have

now all left him and where did they go they went to Rick Perry and it wasn't just Dave Carney. It was his senior campaign manager. So again you have to start looking at you know why would they with new. Why did they turn back to Rick Perry and the one candidate we haven't actually talked about who may not be a candidate for president. But I suspect may be courting the possibility of a vice presidential candidate is Rudy Giuliani and 0 0 0 0 0 police showing up tomorrow again. And and and this guy just likes the attention. Come on I don't really think he's run and but for good. Fergus wait a second. When New York passed the gay marriage law and Andrew Cuomo signed it into law everyone thought that Rudy Giuliani was finally going to get to marry his two best friends that he lived with when he had to flee Gracie Mansion and the fact that he said to them I can't marry you know says that he still think that he may be running for president he's got a future somewhere. I do you know he won't be there if you had Giuliani did such

a terrible job last time he didn't earn a second chance and look I've been very forthright on this issue. But he does reasonably well in polls because he's got name recognition and he does have a lot of respect as America's mayor and for the job he did in New York. But that being said here is the missing ingredient real Republican activists clamoring crying out begging for a Giuliani candidacy. The only people talking up his candidacy are people human employed on his payroll last time for people who want to be on his payroll this time. There are no real voters out there pining for a Giuliani candidacy. Speaking about the gays. What's Fred Karger who is an openly gay guy and who is running for president in New Hampshire and set up shop very early was excluded from the debate and got some hay around that seems to have some good Republican conservative ideas is he is he getting any traction up there. And the other surprising candidate who's not getting any traction appear is the former governor of New

Mexico who is incredibly libertarian on on virtually every single issue. And you know his position on gay marriage is you know if it has to do with your personal life I don't care about it you decide what you want to do. But but he also is getting no traction. So for whatever reason the Republicans have decided you know what is the extent of their spectrum. And there are certain people who have been told basically from the beginning you can't play in this. Oh no that I wouldn't go that far I mean you know you can't out Ron Paul Ron Paul and that's where Governor Johnson loses his constituency I mean as a libertarian and he's not going to be more libertarian than Ron Paul so he lost his potential base. And as for the other candidate look New Hampshire is a tolerant state. It's a state where were gay marriage was voted in by the legislature not by judicial decree. It's not there's not a lot of protests about it. You can be a candidate who happens to be gay. But being a gay candidate Dennet the politics that's what doesn't sell. What about the independents. Anyone with a great

unaffiliated party in New Hampshire in the way that the New Hampshire primary works. You know it's still early to tell but but which way is the wind blowing on the ground for the independents who won. No one knows. And that explains I think why people like Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney do not want to show up in Iowa because they don't want to have to attach themselves to something they're going to have to step back from as soon as they run in the New Hampshire primary. The reason why they're avoiding Iowa is they are going to be talking economics economics economics and that's how you court the UN declared independent voter in New Hampshire. They represent the largest proportion of voters. They have absolutely no reason to pick up a Democratic ballot. I know a lot of Democrats are going to turn and probably become under clarity in time for the primary because as you heard from Ferguson this is an open primary and it will be very interesting to see who captures their heart and soul because they more than Republicans can decide the outcome of this race. They will pick up a Republican ballot but they are not wedded to the Republican Party. They are more like used to their

looking down the road and they're saying Who do I want to be president not who do I want to have win this primary because them it's not about rhetoric and it's not about Republicans. It's who they think can lead. You know I was with a bunch of progressive Democrats the non-rule followers on the day that. Romney announced he was running for president and accidently Sarah Palin's bus ended up in New Hampshire. And I have to say there was a lot of eye rolling from this you know non-conformist camp just about sort of the politeness. Of driving your bus through somebody else's announcement and I thought that was a really telling you know New England manners sort of moment where people who would never be caught dead voting for either one of them thought it was sort of in poor form for Sarah Palin to be to be bussing around and busing Romney's announcement. You know we can't we're getting close to the end here and I tried to hold off but we do have to talk about Sarah Palin still a factor are still the unknown nor is Bristol going to make an announcement that

she's running I mean you know what can we hope for her if she's not running right. Assume she's not running but she clearly misses the spotlight misses the attention and she's got this cover story in Newsweek I'm amazed that Newsweek still has a print edition but she's on it apparently this week talking about it and you're right Sue is terribly bad form she could have put off a visit to New Hampshire for another day. You know it's sort of like hosting to go high school graduation parties on the same day when you know two students could've avoided it by just having one has it on Saturday one has it on Sunday. She continues to have a very loyal following but shoot her the way she is approached New Hampshire over the last three years has been exactly the wrong way to go about it if you're interested in having any political support there. And the other thing is too is that when someone was talking to sort of like you know all the sort of key players who were still waiting to sort of throw their name in behind a candidate and I believe not ONE of them not one of them even mentioned Sarah Palin as a potential candidate for president. They were talking about everybody else but her name didn't even rise to the surface.

And if you're looking at you know the 20 or 30 top operatives in the United States and none of them could even mention her name I think she does miss the attention. But she would really be embarrassed by the incredible loss. So she would rather basically you know take a check to move back to Alaska and still be somewhat of a factor and not be embarrassed by her presence. On the presidential they were coming to the end furthest do you want to make for me maybe an August prediction something that will happen in August. Though happening oh no just make a prediction. My prediction is that registered independents will outnumber self-identified Tea Partiers in the electorate in January or February when the primary takes place to get all these candidates chasing the Tea Party vote. The Independents will outnumber them on Election Day. And Arnie do you want to make you open it why don't I want to. I like that I want to put that up on the board and we'll put it on the web so I don't worry that everybody has their feeling good oh you're agreeing with them so that.

Yeah I totally think the Tea Party is what's actually in New Hampshire. The Tea Party is incredibly tiny factor. It might have been strategic in what they did in the last election but they I think they've shown their colors. They've terrified a lot of people especially a lot of independents and more moderate Republicans. And as a result the Tea Party has taught New Hampshire what needs to turnout in the primary. Yeah I mean the Tea Party presence in New Hampshire I mean I think of the good parts in my my opinion the good parts of the Tea Party Platform and I think of the average New Hampshire voter you think of the bad part. And there's nothing to do with New Hampshire. You know so it's sort of like New Hampshire can school the Tea Party and what a Tea Party you should be there. There's no schooling motivated and you know that in that sense there are mainstream Republicans but they are anti-establishment and they are as angry about establishment Republicans as they are about the Obama stimulus and big government health care. So in that sense they continue to be a very volatile part of the electorate but it's only a slice of the whole thing.

Arnie quickly do you think that Romney has moved in the right direction regarding his statement about the Romney care of Massachusetts. I think you moved in the only direction he could have. And the question was why didn't he do that from the beginning right. Right. That's the only question you have about him. And that's been always I just want to let everyone know what Rick Perry did this week because it does definitely sort of suggest that he's running for president and I believe he met with President Musharraf of Pakistan on Tuesday. OK. OK we're going to tell you they have on well but I don't know. But that would have held to that he's sort of preparing himself for some kind of figure now. Well we've been talking about the presidential race in New Hampshire and how it's playing out. We've had radio and TV commentator Arnie Arneson and Fergus Cullen the public affairs consultant and former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party and an editorial page columnist with The New Hampshire Union Leader thanks to you both. You can keep on top of the Kelly Crossley Show at WGBH dot org slash Kelly Crossley. You can follow us on Twitter. Or become a fan of the Kelly Crossley Show on Facebook. My name is

Sue O'Connell I'll be back in for a Kelly tomorrow and Friday. Thanks to all of you were production of WGBH radio.