Public Affairs; Herman Kahn: The Year 2000

Testing 1 0 0 3. President how will members of the Tufts community. Ladies and gentlemen on behalf of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy I want to thank you first for your patience and waiting for our arrival. On behalf of this unit of toughs I take a great deal of pleasure in presenting to you tonight one of the seminal minds of our times. Mr. Khan is as you know the director of the Hudson Institute. He was one of the founders of that institute. He's a member of the professional staff there. Characteristically his interests are encyclopedic. I understand that he is currently engaged in studies with respect to development of Latin American affairs what is called alternative futures economic technological social cultural over a 15 to

35 year range for the world at large strategic considerations in the world and basic national security policy. Mr. Kahn before coming to the Hudson Institute was for a dozen of years or so at the RAND Corporation. Mr. Khan is a physicist and a mathematician and of Phi Beta Kappa. But I like to think of him rather as a new breed of intellectual a polymath and an autodidact. Those are not such new words or not such new species they used to exist in another century before we all became committed to graduate education ad infinitum. But Mr Khan is a reincarnation of that kind of questing mind. He is characteristically dedicated to storming the future unscrewing the inscrutable and he does this by a series of intricate maneuvers which he calls scenarios and he should be in

Hollywood. Not only because of his charm but because of his directorial concepts. He is the inventor of this anchoring ladder. Scale of ascending assumptions about degrees of violence. Some critics have called it the sort of Indian rope trick or the Jack in the Beanstalk method but I assure you it's one of the most stimulating forms of analyses that you could imagine. Mr Khan is not one of those people who believe that when your house catches on fire because something goes wrong at the critical mass in the stove that you put it out by throwing your apron over your head and running out of the kitchen. He believes that you face facts find the cause of the fire. Consider how it may be dealt with even if that involves thinking about the unthinkable. He is the man who in his massive toll on thermonuclear war really set before the generation and the world the real

problems involved in thermonuclear war. For that act of pioneering and scholarship he was misunderstood as many original thinkers are. Actually I think that no contribution has been greater than that work and that thought in patent hearing. The methods of controlling conflict in a time of nuclear war in pointing out what the risks of war are. As he has put it even if there were only 1 in 50 by the time you reach the year 2000 that's a 50 percent chance of a nuclear war and that is too great a risk to be borne. Tonight Mr. Khan is going to talk to us. With respect to a scenario of the year 2000 this will reflect the studies that he has done under the sponsorship of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences with his collaborator Mr. Wiener. I think that we are especially

fortunate to be able to share this speculation with him. He calls us a framework of speculation. So I do present to you tonight a singular man an original man A creative man in all senses a prodigiously man whose mind looms as large as his book who will cast I assure you a very large future on the avenues from here to the year 2000. Mr. Herman Con. Thank you. That is without question the nicest introduction I've ever gotten before a respectable audience. The more customary deduction is Mr. Khan is a provocative speaker. Which to me it's ok to listen but don't take it seriously.

And if I like to start off on exactly that note. Anybody who's talking on the year 2000 I think has an obligation to explain why they're doing studies like that. Otherwise why would a serious opposition I choose to spend actually a great deal of time recently studying that next thirty three years what a serious group like the scholars that we want to listen to about it. Good. First of Fox's the not so serious. And let me make that as a point an issue is a good as none of the play in these studies which is a very important element. We do not have these studies on the contract all done on the grant for the sake of the country would be a kind of I would bet on you if you can't give a deliverable item. This is not because the studies might not be useful and if you were able to do them well. I'm going to start off in a moment trying to take the position of the visions I've taken actually since 1982 that the world is relatively

stable and that it's very difficult to get into a major nuclear war say or a major act of appeasement. Almost in the pendent of policy choices in other words it doesn't take much skill to avoid the thermonuclear Kassem that's a very unpopular Vosh at the state not a recipe to take chances. I don't think this is true in the 50s because I come back in a moment. And I have a vision of saving with decreasing confidence every year I must admit since 1962 that the next decade looks rather they say if you believe that then the object of a foreign policy must be to make the decade after that safe is when you cannot judge policies by the shark when implications it was over the long run. The difficulty with this reason for doing these studies is that we just don't do the studies that well

otherwise we don't trust the kind of guidance we get at least as yet. There's a third reason to study which is an important one which I studied aggressive to mention in this evening but I think it's worth mentioning because as you know as ever it's a trojan Borton It's a 33 year perspective it is exactly right for certain kinds of development issues. It's very difficult to do things in 10 years in many cases. I would probably for example hear things like say our current legal problems or racist issues occurring urban problems development of undeveloped nations and so on. So if you're good you will in 20 or 30 years. That's a rather nice perspective to take. It is not only a useful one turns out to be important for political morale and factual reasons. I had a friend of mine who was drafting a speech for President Johnson and in its first draft he said we must

dedicate ourselves to limiting the gap between the rich and the poor. By the end of the century. As a marvelous phrase but there's no program that has any hope of doing it remotely. It was as described in the sheer demagoguery. She went back to the drawing board and came up. We must dedicate ourselves to decreasing the gap between the rich and the poor. There's no program for that either. Demagoguery. So he went back came back with the following formation which dedicate ourselves to eventing the gaffer increasing. As it. Turns out there's no program to do that. So funny I love the following perfectly accurate formulation or reasoned formulation. If you look at it from that point of view we must dedicate ourselves to decreasing the rate at which the gap increases. I'd like to poll the audience if I could. Is anybody here willing to die on the barricades for that formulation.

I mean does it make your blood run faster. No. Let me give you a worthwhile formulation. We must dedicate ourselves to tripling the income per capita of Latin America every now in the year 2000. That's a feasible project in my judgment will not be done if we get started now. That one you could might we want to dine of our case for it's a useful project. You do have a problem. So you try the same remark with India. We must dedicate ourselves to tripping the GM people Kapit of India that do seem to be perfectly feasible. What then is the problem. Problem is I hope that wasn't expensive. Out of all the hope you bought it. India Today has a park of income about $100 that not as a perk have become about 350. We think of Latin America as being

ridiculously poor as being beyond or below a human standard of living. Well if you believe this what's the point of tripping India's GDP per capita from 100 to 350 devoid of seed it is intolerable. I mean other ways if you do the following 350. As an intolerably low standard of living. What's the point of tripping in the a standard of living. We went from intolerable to intolerable we must live alone I mean. This raises issues I come back to in a few moments but the concept of what's well off is not really as relative as we think or the sense of but people compared some of the Americans that's pretty American formulation. It's also formation of intellectuals of course not America. They learned if any American was not natural. You're not American Indian. You don't compare yourself with American sounds living you know for yourself your father your brother your

friend your neighbor the guy in the neighboring city you know the person who's was in your bed with your realm of experience. Let me make this a little sharp. It's practically possible for anybody to think of somebody who lives a 20 percent of his income as living at a reasonable time to live a very very difficult. Nevertheless you know our grandfathers did at the turn of the century. I thought they were wealthy poor people. OK by the way many human Appalachian you know they were poor. I hope he explained it to them. They resisted the explanation. We hit him very hard and they understand. I once gave a talk about audience where I used a funny example. I said Look how many of you have been miserable recently suffered thanks to don't live like a Rockefeller. You raise your hands please. Honey I've been depressed because you know you live at a

much lower level than Iraq one of them. Well you're a good man that would better bring up imagination. What you're looking for ways to get the press the button. And looking pretty hard. We have an Iraqi from the audience. He was stunned. I mean people aren't depressed but for our sakes and you people live like pigs. Above. But that is a point you know I got you less than three houses and so on. But you're right it was very easy to envisage you know these impoverished mobs we're ready to tear your building down. You know steal your wealth. You go you go in for eight programs in a big way. Well roughly speaking relation of a vas to Latin America

is less talk less of a Rockefeller to us in this room. Except our friend in the corner there who I assume is very well off or dreaming dreams of glory. And this is the kind of important point because if your experience has been so narrow that you can't visualize people living differently from you you get a completely distorted idea of what drives them what their motivations are. I just came back from Brandeis kids gave a talk this afternoon where somebody asked as I made the comment that the negro until about 1968 the negro riots or rather over the tame affair more like Mardi Gras in a way in Iraq. That's not true recently but it was true of my wife and I explained these was this was angry. So why are they angry. Well because they've been successful in Iraq. We've done pretty well by their status their stands that are appropriate to the way they measure things even when I'm saying the country's mixed up very close. It is

not true that the average negro necessarily makes the comparisons you know with the upper class in America. So that's the only compressors ever use in these studies. I come back this in a few moments but it's one of the sources of all they don't call a general guilt complex born by OP across America. You know everybody of course but many. Let me tell you though. There are many others in the year 2000 studies. I have yet to mention the most important one the one which I'd like to stress tonight and this is the concept of people that I call the post industrial culture let me describe this concept of Freddy pretentious way because it deserves it. Also let me give you a piece of advice in public speaking if you don't want to look very profound as a public speaker it's quite useless thought I was on phrases like man has been on earth for one or two million years. People get the impression anybody thinks in those terms must be deep for these broads you know. Well man has been no one to me. Yes.

I've examined every one of those US carefully. I have noticed only two events of any interest. Tonight's talk is not one of them. If you are a religious man you will be tempted to add a third item. But as you might disagree on that item I just will not raise the issue. I'm referring of course to the covenant of Abraham with God. As a as opposed whatever trivial idea you may have as to what that third item is. Right one of the two we can agree on. The first is the onset of agriculture in the Fertile Crescent say about 10000 years ago. So actually it took like 2000 years to reach England. This was an enormous change society change man from a food gathering. Can

people hear me back there I cannot. What give us the interest of the book. You know if you had left I would have realized that earlier. Well you missed the good. The book. Where was I. Talking about the fight oppressive Arab culture revolution did not increase. Actually Ray stands a living very much. You can think quite inaccurately but good and proper as tonight of a hunting the magic exist as a sign of being like $50000 for capital of all kinds you this is a crazy statement but it's useful for current purposes. You can think of the IRA cost as a shield as being exactly the same level that it went off the capital

the only difference was the density of population was very much bigger. People when I was stationary and you had civilisation so it was a sure means civic culture living in cities for every say 20 people on the farm there was one man in the city and that's what you meant. You talked about culture but you can think roughly other 60 to 200 dollars per capita as being the amount of it that's the way human beings were designed for the present two million years of so let's make a change. KURTZ A duster revolution. Let's for the fun of it called it a factor of 10 was here five hundred two thousand dollars per capita. Now the per capita income is not the central issue in these terms but it's a useful pay if you want to think of it industrial culture think of Europe today. That's roughly 500 on the top in the poorest areas. About 2000 the richest areas that's an industrial culture very different say from Indonesia or China or India which are still pre-industrial vector exactly in the dishes roughly speaking the Roman Empire the Han empire one hundred billion

people one dot per capita. That's where they look. That's No. Let's make change that's expected and the belief is increasingly that this change is at least as big as the first two changes. Is the post industrial culture roughly reached the end of the century roughly say five thousand to twenty thousand dollars per capita. But 20 percent of the world's people it is believed we're living in post industrial Colchis another 10 percent of my thinking was mass consumption culture was another 10 percent or nothing of industrial cultures and European living standards. But 50 percent six large nations which are like 11 Americans now there's a sort of 10 percent hardcore core. You might want to describe this if you please as a island of wealth surrounded by a sea of misery. I prefer to say 90 percent of the people have broken through the barrier. You're on the way out.

What are the characteristics of this post adventure culture. We don't know but we even think about it. There are at least 200 people now who spend a major portion their time worrying about this post-industrial culture and they all come up with much the same ideas. Of course many differences. Now I want to make one clear distinction. About half of these 200 people really write what I would call a post economic culture which if it occurs at all it seems to me will not occur for another say a hundred years. They're thinking rough in terms of 50000 to 200000 of the capital. You know and post economic news are not of any economic issues. You gotta be careful to the people in that culture frenzy my cost they will be economic issues. I want to imagine a family feeling desperately deprived because you couldn't afford a vacation on your anus. You just couldn't mobilize a billion dollars that it takes to get to the question you're a.. Never satisfied with a Marshall patient. You.

Know. You and I will not sympathize with the feeling of deprivation you know. But they will feel good for us. I want to talk about a much less spectacular situation. One of the interesting things about these studies is that many of these tendencies which we first somehow noticed in the post-industrial analysis if you will when you notice very much occurring today. Now we're many ways one can discuss the possibilities. Let me do two things. First I want to talk what I call about a multi-fold train this is a jargon Hudson. Every verse to a series of trends or tendencies in western culture which go back about a thousand years. If you're finicky some go back only 600 years and go back nine hundred. Now the rush is going to go back a thousand years and they have been a rather strong trend in

Western culture so that one can really identify it and I'm going to first argue that this trend which is going on for a thousand years will continue for the next 30 that's by the way are some of both the hypothesis that it sounds like this trend has many ebbs and flows that assume that it flows and doesn't from my lofty position I don't distinguish much you know absent flows. But if you're caught in one you'll notice it. Larry in Germany is a kind of an ad some waste on this Russia doesn't have and so on. I just look over some of these trends. Probably the most important and the most interesting is what I would call oh it could be as they call an increasingly sensate culture music here struggling to terminology not a biased rock in stories but its terminology is very convenient and not very different than the other stars us

by sensate enemies. He makes three year uses three terms ideational we as a culture is a product of an idea. Idealistic. We're trying to be kind of heroic and sensate where it's matter of fact pragmatic empirical materialistic you know in other words our culture bases for examples ideational cultures you can think of say sixth seventh eighth century Greece some you know a lot about you think of medieval Europe saving the first and then centuries going to Rogen no scrap of papers come down to us from this period that the word happiness on was not an important issue. Look at the paintings of the period you find they have no perspective why he goes there. These paintings are acts of worship God can have perspective as a painting for God and his eyes everywhere. So what you would expect in a painting features are not recognizable because I campaigned well

but God can recognize them. They make a slightly controversial remark but I'm prepared to argue it's not really controversial with the cards I'll make that is enough in this period. One can find many cathedrals that are beyond our technological capability today. Why they tend to take about 100 years to finish. Anybody here want to start a hundred year project. No hundred years because only it was only a moment. The gun was noticeable but in a sense a culture seems like a long time. Let me look at the ideational girl at the idea there's a cultural moment prototypes Renaissance Italy shakes burning with any strategic air command base. Well there are some ring socialist realism.

For a car in Germany. Most any of the major theme is heroism. You know then look at the paintings from art as a useful thing to take a look at for a second. The paintings are the idealized you go to Russia and you see 15 foot workers and a thing for trucks. That's when you get one base. You find these are old man young flying heroes planes. You go to his very In Germany you find this in this area Superman you know he's going to break these very impressive. Now I think it's a checkable fact that there have been no ideational or idealistic pictures painted since World War 2 in the West by any semi-serious ours since World War 2 before well what you want so fine painters young and their old style

basic style today is we call sensei art for art's sake for amusement for Information Center of erotic pleasurable decoration. You know a good Hollywood movie is interesting but what can cause a late sensate on this is nihilistic. The prey the ugly. Protest not all of these the same time necessarily. No extravagant seeking for not novelty. Pushing the limits of any particular style so that you can get to the bazaar. Yes of terror the dramatic ruckus this school often post as being realistic school is a sign of the realism is composed of prostitutes. Robotics necrophilia difficult topics. If they have a topic.

It's the art of a group which is trying to destroy society. Now in discussing societies this form the first question which is to ask is does it make any difference. And nobody in the West paints or old pictures whether it's worth everyone other stars as there are about 10 I don't believe and the surgeon that has the fine arts goes so goes the rest of the culture. This is as many ways I believe an unproved statement though there are many examples. Of it. But it certainly would you believe it or not as an inevitable force of whatever the statement said the conjecture so to speak. Even if you think that this is correct the question

still remains is it just a living second or a force you know is it a course or a fact or book I mention here examine the actions that the Russians had. Russians have been busy relaxing their society in many ways. They're not politically and on the cushion of at least one of the areas what I say she was armed and in fact in the Soviet Union just at that time to some degree today. You can say well write anything you want as long as you don't reduce the mimeograph machine just by hand as well as a lot of things pass around my hand the Soviet Union. You can paint with if you want as long as you don't exhibit it in public or privately. Oh you'd like to have a record of freedom. Some of them push themselves a little bit. You may remember they took their question after this exhibition the second for which was some my public thought I'd like it. Having the attitude Mark pushover has a kind of a say younger which use them Barras the Russians I thought it was your new company culture. But as an outsider watching it I kind of amused by

your charms. New York Times yet regular refuses to print the words just to take a little liberty which our son was allowed to play the university his first expression we looked at the paper that these are baby droppings. When he was much more specific. There are times quoted him saying these paper these pictures are outrageous. Is not this is not the same statement at all. He then went on to say much more explicit epithets. Later on he met with the Office of the Kremlin. The meaning itself is kind of interesting. At one point he said you know 10 years ago you are sort of want to Siberia for that and wonder say those days are gone forever and all of them stood up and put significant event whatever it means. I wouldn't put too much on it by the way you know I think at the time they really thought they were gone

forever and suddenly they are nobody was going to solve it you get arrested at 3:00 in the morning anymore there's a very distinct improvement right away. You vish to do get arrested majority if you've got one of the library fines. That's a mistake. It's an efficient way to run your place was the guy's always home. But it leaves a lot of other things to be desired. Is that of course was drawn out the capsule put back down on the on the back the source as real as a bike the rock around this makes sense or does it in their point of view. I don't know I think the other part of do which I had just a moment. Let's look at a secular trend a little bit further. If you're truly secular man is of course cosmopolitan. He has a contractual relationship with his government. See an ace ideational society.

Your nation that governs religious led by people who've been chosen by God or speak the Word of God in an idealistic culture you read by the best on a society where the term best means might be the richest the bravest the strongest and the most intelligent but have a sense of the best in a secular society you are hiring firing a gun. No it's a contract you recognise. Nothing special about them. Take the farm or a ship in a ideational culture. The act of marriage is a sacrament made by the fact that you might be unhappy some of the relevant thing in the world. You know this is what the Pope recently put out on birth control. There's a world wide attack on it and the sense of the attack was this will increase human happiness. And that seems to many people to be an unanswerable argument that this was not necessarily the Word of God. Well I had a

grandfather who will talk to God every day. You know well he would have told you when you said this particular claim to be the Word of God would preach human happiness. He said so what else is new. The idea that a religious concept wasn't anyway connect with human happiness is good as an idea is like two three four years old. It's a new idea in the world that one is religious because it makes you happier or better adjusted or makes the society operate better. My graph as a list goes he talked to God God told him what to do know is generally a conversation you know you make any further analysis. One problem with secular societies is they can't withstand attack that is they don't have any Christian about it only magic. Now I'd here bring up the second part of

what I want I want to save me. The absence what happens when you lose this kind of traditions. These kinds of motivations. I want to adopt a much more dramatic way. Let me misquote a remark of Freud's original remark said something like the only tie that most people have with reality is a necessity to earn a living take away this necessity and most people can leave will leave illusion lines. Let me improve and progress. I would argue that for most people the only child reality is national defense earning a living. As you suggested religion tradition desire to be heroic to be more than something desired to achieve desired to work or simple biological fact of life. And you one of these A Things can tie you to reality. As far as I know

the list is close to we're not quite exhausted. There isn't something else left with others guts later. Lose these things and you have no ties to reality. Another way to formulate it is that some people suggested that the only business society today is to create society in some ways I think that's a correct statement. But you see one creates a society with limitations. I don't argue that all limitations I just suggested have or are disappearing. Let me discuss them both rather rapidly and in turn spend little time in the first two. Let me start by taking a point of view which I sometimes call the world is flat point of view that is if you look around you the world is fine and you are speaking I would argue that simply the very fact of that sort of a reasonable unless you're geographer and that a gator of a pilot you can get you can get along with the idea the world is flat. Our movie stars young person today and look around the world and that's what does he

say and what we see I think with increasing intensity as time goes on. Well if he's an observant person look at rationalizations I think the first thing motives are the two most successful nation since World War Two are Japan and West Germany and they lost World War Two. So your first approved observation is that it's good to lose wars you might add to the United States or you might not. Your second observation still looking at these two countries might be noticed that Germany is the second largest trading nation the world Japan the fourth and neither has a navy. One doesn't need to have access to the markets of the world. They come for free. The third thing you might notice is that in generally speaking it doesn't pay to own your neighbor's territory or Europe to colonize and is better off. You couldn't get out to go back to France but fighting a small war you wouldn't take it. How many people here would accept Venezuela as a colony or as a 50 for a state that was a

Commonwealth or something. It's just on a sea of war over here while the enthusiasm of the pickup's Venezuela. Let me tell you you have to fight a big war. We have knowledge of it. That's brand new in the world biologically at least in the developed part of the world onto the Soviet Union as the present time we do not covet our neighbor's problem anymore. Now you may talk about neo colonialism if you wish. That's your pleasure. Let me tell you I think the same thing and if you don't understand that you will not understand the rest of this lecture. Let me continue. Let's go back to Latin America for a moment. In the last 23 years post-war years 24 years there's been no serious frontier conservation that America none that looked like they were escalating the war. That's very peculiar since 1810 there's been no 10 year period

in law to make history that serious frontier issues except the last 24. And furthermore most Americans would expect to reach the end of the century without any frontier changes except sort of voluntary ones. That is actually making a verbal of your 21 hour strip but that's not because they're afraid of you because they are contemptible of you you know that's patronizing. Now I mean I should define my terms of it here. You may know that the Canadians until 1925 know that we I'm sorry 125 had a war plan for attacking credit Canada and that since Canada was in danger. But let me tell you if you want a president of states I need such and such equipment of men that war plan you have got a very cold reception. No he would not take it seriously. It's easy to note that on one hundred twenty eight the comedian said a war plan for invading the United States.

That's a kind of hubris that you know I feel like reviving the wrong war plan but they didn't take it seriously. In other words there's a lot of rhetoric in the world but it's not even hard to Costa Rica's recognize this and disbanded its army more about. Where else is this true. Well North America is not a place where frontiers conferee. When you write a scenario where US is invade it very hard. I've tried and I can do it but it takes a lot of Magna greatest ability than even I can believe we can do you know. What about Europe train business transfers I cross the river and disease nothing as the fences as the alliance structure which gave it a symphony of protection for Germany's western borders both of East and West Germany. I have issues when trying to make that remark meant that one can make your mark about Russia about China. This is my reading of the culture

revolution in 65 I think the Chinese are going to be invaded. I don't think they think so anymore about your pain. In other words in the developed parts of the world and in a starving high percent of the undeveloped parts of the world or the rest of them parts front dear security comes for free and not dependent upon policies of the government or actions of individuals. This doesn't mean in me that they are going to come along and wipe us all out. But that's not a frontier issue you know it's a kind of a different magnitude. More like when I can. Nature will most people like you regard it. Let me continue. Let's look at the economic problems that face people today and which will face a government developed part of the world. Let me start with the hippies because that's a good number to understand. What do you think it costs to live as a hippie in the United States of America.

You don't have good news for those guest workers. I don't know what it is now hippies left the cities and living out the countryside. I just don't know the figures today but I do know the figure was three years ago and two years ago I checked in Haight Ashbury Cambridge where the East Village and in Los Angeles about the same number in all four places. Ten dollars a week. Five hundred a year. That's what it takes to live as it happens you're a hippie you are typically in fact almost uniformly an upper middle class kid you're literate in the college you have no trouble passing the post office exams say to work the post office at night. Greg Archer this is from roughly 6 1/2 hours every evening. The minimum salary is $500 a month so you can live 12 an upright. And take it you know train one month on live a month off. My hippy friends find onerous. And they're all in favor of guaranteed annual income.

But it seems to be a very reasonable request the part of society. If you check by the way the post offices in these four places I mention you will find that about half the people were going to graveyard shift are happy. The other half so they can say 40 percent or 40 percent Negro they don't get along at all well. The most elementary level the need was like any middle class in the visual kind to take baths as the religious right. Even hippies do not and that's automatically a source of friction. One might ask ourselves immediately why are these negroes who were also literate can pass exams working at night. Well obvious recently they have two jobs where they're going to school in the daytime. The upward mobile repping becoming middle class. The two groups hate each other. They don't even talk to each other and one going up

the conversation all the better they know each other the most and one tends to dislike white. Nothing racist about it just completely opposite dives. No one is throwing away but the others calling itself together. You may be amused at the sounds of the post office proud of the record of us except months ago which read as follows. Any man delivering the mail during the day time must wear shoes. He would have mentioned the matter earlier but we didn't think it would come up. And you can see the problem. There's no way in other words to consider an economic problem here just doesn't exist. And this increased nature around the world. Yet as I think the other aspects I've mentioned already I think you already know. I will except maybe for the facts of life and

death are no longer around. American society used to startle Europeans in fact all foreigners by the complete absence of death. You were your typical middle class kid. You've probably never seen a dead body. You have these very cosmetic you know and nobody and they're sort of taken out of the realm experience as being a real experience. You get situation like this will happen. I've known of 10 year old American children to go to Starbucks when an 85 year old grandson died. They'd never cope with the idea you know they just didn't think that experience this is coming true worldwide by the way that rates are going down. Movies are changing and people on the call in this mystical a fact of life has come up a situation somewhat stronger than that. There's all kinds of new technology coming up which is a view which will enable you to choose your pattern of life which itself is very unsettling went away.

Let me give you some examples of new technology. Just to give you such a way. I mean let me start out with that using the sex of children. My friends were microbiologist assure me that within the next decade or so I will be able to choose a second choice by these two techniques. One is to let the conception occur. Wait a few days or a week and then test the sex of the embryo its male if its wrong sex you give the mother a potential mother a day or the morning after pill. A very innocuous abortion if you will not leave abortion and no baby. So you keep trying to get the right sex. Another possibility equally likely or maybe more likely is that you will take the male sperm separated into those with the next x y factors that affect the male. Females vary

and then use a partial insemination. Now this last thing will clearly not catch on around the world. By the way we Americans will use it but it's much too good actually for the rest of us. But watch in horror. But let me give you another possibility which is not as likely as say even money bet by the end of a century but certainly not impossible. And and I mean Clay quite likely even 40 50 years. Is that you can do it by a simple pill or simple chemical. Let's assume his last happens what will the impact in the world or United States expect a very severe impact. My guess as a ratio of male to female births go down from say 51 49. Some like to the one I talked of many girls just picked up the information and they tell me the pattern they like best as a boy girl boy. You know that if I

counted one. There are cultures say the Indian culture in which the peasants have almost zero interest in female children who do attitude but it's there and. I would expect the ratio to go to like say 99 1. And I'm sure the governor spent them as a mistake. But Talk explains the president takes a long time to sink it. And I you know after maybe 10 20 years I'll catch on and there will be a kind of a swing the other way. You know but it might take a long time for it settles down. Countries like Japan and West Germany I would guess Ray should be aided in one other way just of a truly a divisive but who fought the world let me give you another example of the kind of thing that are coming up. Just to give you a fact let me give my favorite example. The first experiments were done about 12 years ago on rats and this has been repeated on all kinds of animals and human beings. But let me give you the right experiments. Some scientists took a rat.

Why destroy your center. This is a very it is a brain which a proper stem but it is an intense pleasure. We have many pleasures and as human beings right so far the only one. Why did two whatever gave the rat the choice of food water sex rest or press of love. What do you think the president of some 6000 times an hour and seems perfect loaded to spend the rest of his life that way. If you force him to take a little wrestle a little fool the water has no pickers and sex he's got something better. He lives a longer and as far as we can tell a healthier life than the control rats. OK in a sense a culture we've got the solution. What is a solution. Well I'll bet you that sometime your lifetime some of people's auditorium may well have their pleasure center say there's probably about 10 of them wired to a console on your chest.

I'm a kind of prudish guy and I don't think you should play your own con.. It is weird. I prayed. I would expect you to find somebody else hoping the opposite sex. And you can play each other's counsels and I can see the conversation now. You haven't tried one for together. I want to get set now for a mind blowing experience. You know you've got a trial of the end of it that we compositions are the words This is a favorite theme of science fiction. It seems to be a kind of thing technology possible today in a truly sense a culture but objection could you possibly have you know where you're maximizing each other in. This NG.

Do you have a curious he's going to give you a good deliver the inside the unpleasant discussion but again I want to give you a sense of bizarreness of the modern world. Let me start by asking a question how many people here believe that the best possible use for a dead human being is to be disassembled as a source of spare parts for live human beings. I've put it in a rather blunt expression roughly everybody by the way. You can ask it that bluntly and nobody disagrees. All right let's pursue that you know this is where logical people who are not religious one have Roche you know. That's that's pursue the logic a little bit. I'm running a feature story now about a train wreck which about 100 people you know get kind of mixed up together. The doctors put together 50 minutes otherwise you argue over them. We refuse to make a decision. So fast that you start all kinds of. Lots and you know kind of odd. But let me give you a more serious issue. A young boy about a year ago

that in a bad accident brain was irreparably damaged when it took home. It was possible people live about as long as they wanted to. I think the doctors made intelligent decision Seidlin Di Mainers actually reparable Then came the standard question our society can we use a well we can disassemble and they did. The use is going to use his liver his heart his blood several other things. The following suggestion was also made immediately turn down its writ that somehow it's wrong to do some of the mediately you can keep him alive in parts. The best way to keep the spare parts working is in the body. Anybody injections you are you do have a lot of laughs. What's the difference he doesn't know. Why don't I hear

about you they don't. Twenty years from now what about what you think you think of any reason to join either with a wish wish it why do you draw the line. I want to be you know people the better off there's a sense that society would be improved. If they were disassembled. Let me tell you I know that a sum of money when me. But I'm certain that my judgment you're getting is a very odd situation for a mother. Many signs are speculating that an immortal human being has been born already someone whose life we can see only prolong you know maybe centuries. Hibernation is a serious possibility. How serious we're not sure but you said you wouldn't rule out there is today society chronics on of society which will at the moment of your death immediately put you in cold storage.

It will freeze your property to give you fast for Hes a serious group of people whether they're on crack or correct high are crackpots but their intellectual scientific crackpots you know there are people with a lot of training. The. Same way if you're frozen vegetables rapidly set aside your structure is not destroyed. The idea is whatever your diet of some of it Robert got a cure. Maybe they can revive you as we bring about. And this idea is being thought of seriously for terminal patients of all kinds you know these all kinds of our problems your thoughts on down the line. What I am suggesting and I want to repeat the statement that in a society we making over the next 35 years or so. When the traditional restraints

on people will basically disappear. Let me tell one story illustrates exactly I mean by this. I visited. Israel about four years ago. There's a problem there. The place is run by European Jews about 40 percent of population 600 publish an Oriental Jews who are not European in culture different kinds of color younger Jews with a really North African Middle East so on the European Jews are forcibly European izing the 60 percent some of them resent it like our own black power people. I'm told the following dialogue is not uncommon. A rocket will go up to a European Jew and say I don't like the European culture. Live you know the Israeli will always say there are 100 million. In Iraq a Jew thinks for about 10 seconds and then says Where's the electrical engineering school what can you do.

If not others external facts on the strike them out. I want to repeat my my thesis over the next 30 years. The following external facts no longer operate. National security will not operate as a live issue. It's there I believe. But you can't say if you don't want to see it earning a living will not religious traditions will not. That's what we are conversation on the head of the human body where nobody 30 40 50 years ago still had a trace of religious what he left with Except that treatment is when very young many people didn't see no heroism there just on her own culture. No tradition no biological facts of life no need to achieve. That's an important need for Americans but it's disappearing rapidly. No work orientation. What's left.

Well many people notice that the hippies make the point that you're over with. Sweep it away and they have by the way a very conscious attitude of being John the Baptist not Jesus Christ but John the Baptist one comes first and sweeps all this away so the Messiah can come in. That's certainly one possible solution in their profession. It's called catharsis. But but the people don't realize is this catharsis is very unpleasant and invariably Bloody the way you sweep us opposition ways don't you sweep away most of its members. You know how to get rid of the good things. I would hope that's not the solution. What is a solution. Well I have a guess when I don't take the joy but it seems to me it's already happening and will be the solution. I suspect we Americans will turn to recall the tradition of the gentleman. Let me define it young for you. John is a man with many many skills and all of which he choose a very high level of

capability and all of which is very difficult to achieve a high level capability none of which are useful. I view on my generation that strikes you as a glum prospect. Your younger generations if you're perfectly reasonable the greatest bunch of people in a way let me give you a slight analogy which is somewhat inaccurate but again present space I mean if you look at say the great cause your take is a rather spartan Greeks greater say with Romans you can sort of make the following remark the Greeks they fit because you like to stay fit but also the Roman State Fed has had a fight was you took the wars away from other cultures. The Greeks thus they put the Roman do not. This is what I'm suggesting is we Americans who are well known of the Romans of the 20th century must like the Europeans of the 20th century become breaks. Europeans ready on somewheres

but I might add it's probably safe to become Greeks Greeks were able to lick every group around that the Romans there's no Romans it's safe to be agree. No it's not clear to me ROMANS So that's an issue go a little line and I would guess that this will be by the way this notion rather than the anarchist solution which is the next thing people tend to think in terms of. Business but just for democracy but to the limit. I like just like marching against that I have the against almost every occasion the kids use it. But as a concept I like the pose and specific examples I say. The Atticus is interesting. It came into being around 18th 19th centuries disappeared in World War One. Why did you come to be. This was the first movement that argued you could do without any kind of social forces you know social restraints other than voluntary which is not at the same time as setting

you back because you have many such moments but always ascetic or religious they withdraw to the wilderness which was at home what do they get this impression they want to be part of an affluent kind of a society and you not have any rules. Well that's the way they look to people who just revolution they were very impressed you know with this new industry this new way of doing things and that's happening again today. If you're raising this with you I just described you see no reason for rules you know except those you won't accept no reason structure and no reason for force and so on. I happen to feel that it's a very misleading picture in part when a partner says I descried a really accurate picture reason but the main reason why the anarchist doesn't work out is the self-defeating. He doesn't leave an organization. You know it's like the kids invite them summer though they had a rather impressive organization going in and they noticed that a hurricane we were getting orders in like that

so they're the sectors of the population. People place me in the sectors and the next Get out your position and functions well but I'm out of it for the obvious reasons you see there. So I would predict that this is a basic solution. The man is a gentle man who has these many many skills and less than the anarchistic critique we have the critique in a way that the work oriented Puritan cannot and therefore society has nothing to apologize for and I think of the before time. Time is life climbing mountains driving fast boats playing aviator playing banker you know and the whole game sequence there that's the man what's he doing you might say back you might say skin like it is in the news we see fit and they say it's not a bad societies nothing wrong with it. If you lose a soldier who's a statesman who says no it's to run it and sees me perfectly reasonable most of the United States happens of my middle class bias I don't like it

but I'm sure you know we think ourselves the heirs of big Roman culture. But let me tell you they would like our society you know. You know and that's my guess as with the way the singer earns up at least for the medium. This is about where I want to terminate. I got one question though. There are. No he is a man here and he's an very educated now. That's meritocracy to the limit and a certain kind of disaster society the European Society for that. I would say that all the smallness aside now I'd be careful of those people starting a post national culture. All of the Global Post business culture

and almost all of them argue that the source of creative energy will be the intellectual is what you talk a little bit but they're all intellectuals What other conclusion to the con.. I happen to think that's probably not so. Well as a hard question to answer let me form it into a in a normal situation the normal historic situation. I want you to imagine that one side of a river you have people you who will be in a farmer's again hoping the farming game whether it gets but today knows either of you have farmers which want to save her from famine. There's your farm. Once again if you're paying the soldier again there's other you've got

soldiers that's dangerous is it. But the way the world goes today if the developed part of the world maintained their morale you know it's very hard to see the next 10 20 30 years they can be seriously challenged. You know they are the coming up of course technology plays such a central role in GNP and nothing's difference calculations. Now you have things like the beginnings war where you say oh my god I'm not going to spend 30 billion a year using lasers and all of that now face. I mean that's true and it shows you how you can misunderstand the problem. I happen to think that wars would have been easy to win with roughly one tenth the energy cost if you use the proper tactics and certainly was going to probably tack that you can just cut a truck let's do what important problems with what I call the powerlessness of the powerful. You know the remark that there are two superpowers today mocking them in North Korea.

First they push everybody else around you might actually have a Foreign Question Why is it say that the Russians are Americans and seem to lose resume remark irregularity or some exceptions. Or why is it that say Columbia University in Berkeley movies where the kids went. Yes that's very seems to be a kind of stupid thing a part of a powerful kind of smugness the quick thinking. In the case of both the Berkeley the Columbia right as ever there was never any attempt to divide the moderates from the extremists at all points of ministration you gave into those extreme demands or rejected the most moderate view sense about tactics. Now you've got to add to this another fact right now called training capacity I think is a very serious effect and the effect which these host inductor countries will have a return train a capacity concept better than he managed to apply to the kinds of incapacity the common having a Ph.D.. The inability to see certain kinds of issues which one economy has been very well trained. Otherwise easy. Here is an

example of what I'm talking about here. I know what the Congress once was an expert on prices. New York City who did not know the average American voters card a discount has never been a study. Very likely this guy paid less for his car. It was very hard to do that by the way. You've got to find a credit. I know another fellow who's sort of the best at the Polish to beat them. I fact identified his very close friend of mine by the dedication he spent 18 months in the village was 9 months before he found out as we say. I have people in my step and spent 10 seconds at those at those VC fact I've when these guys are thought of bop there are some of you know them and I know you are a major engineering firm in Middle East. Twice he pulled out his people just before the election a voter revolution had a zero false alarm rate. He never pulled his people out of a country without a revolution.

Now I have to save the apologies and talking to the wrong place of this remarkable me make it anyway. He said I asked him. Bob how did you know that Revelation was coming up. Now normally when you ask them about American academics say why can't you be difficult she was me thrown out you know notwithstanding the actions that great expert cushion of noise and we cannot. Live without it. That's like a big business in a situation. Bush is not the first to know he's the last to know. It's like you're not as white as when you're around another First enough he's the last to know. If you want to find out when there's documentation of a divorce papers or file then you're the last of the one which is very late indeed. And this is the point my friend they said look everybody there's me revolution everybody except of course the government. The American Embassy and the academics you know they were not aware if the if the government knew about it it would stop the revolution

of the last administration to a startling degree this is a fair critique of a very serious problem in Venice on the heart of the education rate the higher the IQ the more narrow the view of the broader with all these kind of youth. It's still hard to see him getting into trouble very way back there. RESIDENT 1 1. Well there's no predictable energy deficit for the next century as do we have enough share in our country and a counter-example to supply or of these. Definitely especially richer. As soon as you get breeder

reactors there's enough uranium to last a century far as we can see. Maybe more when you get into nuclear fusion reactions. There's enough water class from you know many many centuries. So this year energy issue just as income on things you run out of is not things like forms of energy or iron and you know that. But living space pollution space no privacy these are things you're not a very bright of them know how serious it is very hard. And. A lot depends on things that happen of course but. What I might say I sort of don't like it. I want to be like of the year 2000 where thought is right. God bless you you made. Good you know I said I'm being unfair I'm using middle class boys who are work are going to die he was in a place

where these don't apply as much Lebanese these are going to be rejected by the guy wrote that love will remain and that's where it should be. And also by some of these bizarre choices strike means after the unthinkable and you can't leave it that people will make the right decision. Most of the time they make the most of the time you miss five or six times. And boy you're in trouble. But that I won in the last 20 years I'm atheist agnostic. I expect a deathbed conversion. From my grandfather. I sed so was a stop on Flicker. I've done a lot what I thought. I wouldn't. I don't want to die quickly. You know I was peoples friend of that.

I think there are other but I'll give you another thing that's about a little a view as you think of vegetative reproduction. Leave it experiment in about a year and a half ago. They took the intestinal selves of a frog got the promise of material put it in a fertilized egg and other species for art and it didn't have a set of rules into which the original species of frog. Assuming these are trying to be done in human beings eventually we can read we can reproduce the genetic is not a guy identical given of any divisions among them as I mentioned I watch an act of the heart. You just couldn't really close what was obviously the back of my mind. But it seems to me you might want to produce about 10 or becomes a year. For the indefinite future. Though I have at least 1 percent the vote for the second rover. It's wrong if you were to contact

the caucus a hundred years ahead of you and do the other party maybe billions of years ahead six hundred years and it will look very close to gone. You know they can do what only God can do they can make life destroy a life change thing. You know we can revive the good life you know and so on. I would think the contract be fairly shattering to you Michael would like the contract that the Americans had with members of the Indians. There's a modest I want that was in the in some American anthropologist that every people is given a cock like which to drink when first off you have broken my code and the story could be shared. We're very eclectic.

If you go to some kinds of things are what people call normal trend analysis which can be done in a number of different ways. The most useful so if you take the role of voice reclining on the coffee table this is incredibly useful by the way when I first went to this business I shared an office a chap called Sam com had the following experience every year assigned to advisory boards as a present United States should have a direction of what you would do a nuclear weapon in the next 10 years. Every Yes I am going to do is design production which is basically what they thought they could do in 10 years we were doing two every two years it turned out to be right. This went on for five years. Sam how do you do it. And he simply drew a straight line on the proper kind of paper. These are called envelope type projections there's a good little fairy behind them today and they're used by all kinds of death design books and that's five or ten years but they were not understood at that time for example

because what they predict that the rate of innovation is the Holocene to be that people normally what an expert not only predicts is improvement of the current status. Looking at current trends we almost always use hours rate of innovation in which new things are happening and the State of the Central. In about half the kinds I'm talking about. If you're an expert you can predict the innovation question how do you want to be doing it. And at one point Bradbury had lots of labs I told Sam Really Matt you try to my lab would be doing to us now when I don't know that you're using another kind of standard prediction just let us talk of that. I doubted that would happen the past you say will not happen again. Some of the nation's business is a rich source of Lisa's speculation. Another kind of technique because an area as was mentioned earlier the term scenario was originally deftly chosen to denigrate you know it's only a scenario. Don't take it too seriously. But the technique has been so useful that it's now become a OK word.

You know and now is a plus. To say I got it out of a scenario which is just not in the spirit does it looks at a complex of events simultaneously and tries to sort of put together the original completely plausible fashion you know it was where the checks were out except those places we don't want to. For various reasons. Good your stuff is done the American way and so on you know you expect it would take more than 20 30 minutes to go over it. Even like discussion not doesn't just talk about it it's all there. But there's so many things there. Well I would wife I have a different opinion here. Oh I think she's molding the children and I think the kid's a moving earth. My kid has said you read Freud and read it well

he told me the other day I was we had a discipline problem and he has a strong sense of justice he simply one of the arms of a person around 10 years old I think at 10 years old often don't get to vote. And I wanna stand about authority and say that we don't talk about you just adult told you. Turned out he was a big help after school. They have a rule that any teaching give you a 45 minute period but the speech was given to 45 minute for years. He said I'm sorry you can't do it. Thank you all talking to Teacher things are you going thought what if I'm here for a five minute period. I said you know they say you can't talk back to teachers he says you can't do the time. I say to him in my that you couldn't talk. You should he says you can pick a teacher today. What are you talking about. If I can teach all kinds of the merits but I want to be in a school like him three times to get that.

He's got it all worked out. Well I'm trying to break it. That might add one of the small coin to this. Let me add two points one is a serious one. In our society the Americans have discovered a new way of transmitting values to the children which is different from any society of history. The problem is as follows. You want your children to grow up a very you know the 97 people find out the viable route of that and so they people have been dropping virus like mad. It took almost a hundred years before they noticed that all virus of war rather was not relative they have out all cultures had various you know some sort or another and were not value free. That's you know they had developed one of which is that that exists without them. So I we have a chronic problem our society is a rapidly changing society. You want to keep the whole these values very strongly but you don't know what they are. You don't know what they are you're not a fan

of monks. You know roughly I mean not to steal not to lie too much in the we care about sex but not reject you know these things you can transmit but not the you know it's it's not the stone. So what we've done is we've made these kids other directors. We've said check with your peer group whatever values they have that you must hold them firmly whatever they are and then you try to choose a conspirator to be reasonable. Are you a parent you are you know the problem is that you don't know. Wait. My wife asked me the other 30 which is in the fifth grade when. There were two or three staff members were very interested in you know an unidentified

flying objects to sort of keep track of the thing. I myself was part of an Air Force study about that 12 years ago which went over all of the stories you know that I had. And we sort of concluded there was nothing unexplainable except maybe 12 incidents you know out of the many thousands. The Air Force got very upset about two years ago there were a whole rash of incidents reported by various comp and people you know kept the transports you know bomber pilot and so on who not only would leave a list and said look I'm probably one of I really saw one of those things. You know let me fill out the form because I don't think it's my duty but I want a crack watch and they took it very serious and they gave it this corny study a kind else I go to what you call the study used to be at a distance and they concluded I got that read the study there's nothing in it aside from interest in that study. There's nobody you know there's no regulation of life on the planet. We are on Earth on this it's where in a policy research business we interpret the charter broadly.

I drive a program every year as if I had an infinite amount of funds and for some employees staff members where could you make the most impact. What's the most interesting things to do. What are the most useful or the most exciting and so on. Then we try to break it up into small pieces and go to various government agencies that you don't know if you want to go to contract to study this piece or they may not give it to us to a new one of us ways that we are various other things. This process I think will not change the current administration. If anything will be easier for us to get countries. The reason for that basically a number number of reasons for it was a port there which is a very intellectual ministration that everything we buy for the flexibles it was a non-attack of the vision that a group of folks want to do that like they have something oh yeah I know that I don't ministration. More.

Of what you call the black rubber the white problem. I have a friend of mine down Watts who was at the Liberator magazine I have another acquaintance the black problem of us only one friend and is vicious the other semitic magazine and whenever he sees me he says I'm not anti Semitic just anti-Zionist I so I'm not anti negro just anti-black. We get along fine. Not that everybody want to stay but from each other. I would guess the resolution is to be very much like a Brazilian rather resolution or even somewhat better more complex. How do we think of as Brazil is a country that is free from prejudice or relatively free from prejudice. What you create wrong it is probably the most racial society I know of. They have about 60 70 words of different shades of color all of which are used. First in any position doesn't mean anybody else's judges color

the kind of connoisseurship of experts in this which would shock you. They've done several things though which fix their problem. It was not a social problem and they should have been heroes. That of course is from but it's not a countrywide problem. First they don't make it genetic. This is actually done and on tests you can show the average Brazilian three pictures identical skin color but one is obviously educated or wealthy you know it's three shades lighter. That is obviously an educated up or you know some shades darker and you can change your skin color by where you are it's a class thing. You say I have a friend of mine who's fair as fair as any man in this room because of an ego. That's how do you think you know the way that you know you call me a negro. And it's true you know somewhere in a remote past years a drop of negro blood which is checkable you know I'm going to go with that kind of manic siblings on

second. It was in our class has been lily white. There are no negroes in the Jockey Club. You know the book pilots the Air Force pilots and you know the other ones. Absolutely white. But except for these kind of very special things the time they need to make it but it's never mentioned. And it's gross Not to mention the problem. If a young sate was in grab the upper class who is White wants to marry a doctor visit was as often happens. Even the privacy of their home the parents would not dare to raise the rates as you know they were going to very strongly. We live like an hour in our culture. If a young grow over what the parents want to marry a very poor boy. The parents will feel very upset but they couldn't mention it because it would drop certain sections that fall off and they don't care about his bank accounts that we do very much but we never mention your social status

the next year. They have two other sections which o argue that Brazilians prefer negro to white and they are give you two examples in their literature completely. First example points out that Portugal was one of the more for about a thousand years than the typical sexual fantasy of the Portuguese was that of a dark white man with a dark princess. I repeat every attitude survey shows this is wrong. They have no such that Pegasus. But they say they have in fact to go further they say in Portland Brazil was settled. The average plantation owner brought with him thin lipped white wife and a beautiful luscious response of Negro mistress. So we kind of like her better. You know again. There is some evidence about this but it's not overwhelming. All right. What's the corresponding think United States in some ways will do better. Some ways will do

worse. Let me describe how to do better. We have today an incredible degree reverse discrimination. Today we have say one rough bunch all right punches no asset for lower income negro. He's a problem. Get 100000 up bunches under thirty five times larger problem because it takes away his rationalizations. Why is low income. But as you point out the guilt feelings of upper middle class America which is very heavy today having heard thousand of lunch takes the sting away completely. I would argue that the first the most of what needs to happen is that audiences like this which are you know 1 percent they've got a 2 percent Negro will buy their son to be 5 and 10 percent Negro not as high as they were said the population but high enough so nobody has got the things that he's looking to be guilty. But listen to the noise at the things you know and talk about the average Joe. The second thing is going to happen is the needle in the hole I expect to move upward. He's already is income gaps I think today it's unfashionable to

make the point that some of the programs succeed because we always like to talk about not succeeding but effective work that we're working really quite well. What do you hope people don't think they're working to make those numbers gap the president talked about I saw a recent story for Sandler pointed out that the goat used to die three times often in childbirth as white woman and now by eight times on each other's work which sounds pretty bad right. What used to be true is they all make up and out of your brother's body. You speak to that say 10 percent of the white woman died in childbirth and 30 percent of the woman. Now it's a half percent white and 4 percent and you go through the ratios change and feeding one to eight in one but you can't call that retrogression unless you discover the start of a sense of values that you want to kill white mothers you know. So. I'm saying those are just bursting out of your second vacuum so I would expect that this thing will be taken out of the whole thing. Look he was in something like

20 30 years. I'll give you the final thing as having you know who the symbol of the is today on the better campuses has been better campuses and we to hear to the football can remember she was a few years ago in the business now it's a new go black power symbol and he gets all the rights attached to that symbol as least of all kinds easily miseducation and general relaxed attitude as in a marriage pictures and so on. Now I would guess by the end of the century you will find large anti negro pockets in the world and United States say maybe half the country will be significantly biased against Negroes will be important in Iraq. There's all kinds of companies which I can't get a job. Jewish. You think it's bought me recently. Check where I live in Chappaqua the head of the Association of Reagan our first Negro. Environment.

What is the second guy down in the keep Jews ass society which is another circuit area not a chapel. This guy's 30 second down. That particular group and president of the Treasury some noodles in your sense of where things work you know what happens to low income to grow. I think he's in serious problems. I would guess have two thirds will move into the middle class you know and a fair percentage of state or not at the bottom. But they won't they don't want to be half the poor would want a third of the port or for the pointlessness of service of what happens the black militants the races are going to be a bloodbath a country of the BIA existential act with a you know shot of the. Foundations aside. No for the very heart of you conference so there will be doubters many chauvinistic negroes and say wait on us and over us to jobs. Like the man you're talking to.

You have to tell. You. What.