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From WGBH in Boston this is the Emily Rooney show. Monday November 22nd 2010 and Emily Rooney on today's show. So far no state legislators have been accused of wrongdoing in connection with that scathing report on hiring abuses at the probation department. Political Reporter Adam Riley joins us from the statehouse. Middlesex County. James of Powers says he can't in good conscience except hold his annual pension and his salary next year. He says a question put to him by the Boston Globe Sean Murphy. How can we celebrate his moral compass. Murphy. Joins us. Plus our financial guru Bob posing as we break down the day. Chance of being down lame duck congressional session. And finally our Monday morning quarterback Bill on the upswing last night in a preview of their Thanksgiving match up against the Lions. That's next after the news. From NPR News in Washington I'm Janine Herbst. Less than a day after agreeing to a

massive bailout Ireland's government is in disarray. NPR's Philip Reeves says this is complicating its task of hammering out details of the rescue plan with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Ireland's financial crisis is spawning a political hiatus. Its coalition government has a majority of just 3 that now seems to be melting away. The Irish are furious with the way their governments handled the crisis that's forced their small nation to go cap in hand to the European Union and the IMF for a Greek style bailout. The government's junior coalition partners the Greens said today they wanted an election in January after the bailout package is in place. Several independent parliamentarians who supported the coalition are also wavering. This is a bad time for political instability. European officials are trying to persuade the markets that the rescue plan for Ireland will work so as to stop the crisis spreading to several other eurozone countries. Philip Reeves NPR News.

Just ahead of one of the busiest travel seasons the head of the Transportation Security Administration is asking passengers not to boycott the scanners in favor of a pat down. John Pistole says he does understand concerns about privacy but he says travelers need to balance that with safety. How do we do the best possible job of balancing the security that everybody wants and even demands and rightfully so with the privacy that everybody wants. And how do we best blend that a loosely organized internet group called opt out is calling on participants to skip the scans in favor of pat downs. On Wednesday Israel's parliament votes today on a bill that would make it much harder for the country's government to bargain away the control of parts of East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights as part of a Middle East peace accord. NPR's Luis Lourdes rather Garcia-Navarro reports the bill would force any such moves to be put to Israel voters in a referendum under the terms of the bill any move to withdraw from annexed territories must first be approved by the Knesset and then within 180 days put to a national referendum. The bill is expected to pass its final

readings today. But the move has some worry that it adds an additional hurdle to any deal between Israel and Syria or the Palestinians East Jerusalem was annexed shortly after the 1967 war. The Golan Heights was formally annexed in 1901. A national referendum on handing all of part of them back effectively ties the Israeli government's hands in any negotiations. Proponents of the bill though say it gives the Israeli public a voice in the future of their country. Lourdes Garcia-Navarro NPR News Jerusalem. Hopes are fading for the 29 miners trapped in an underground New Zealand coal mine. They've been trapped for three days but the presence of explosive gases is preventing rescue attempts on Wall Street the Dow is down 75 points at last check at eleven thousand one hundred twenty eight. The Nasdaq is up one point right now at two thousand five hundred nineteen the S&P 500 up seven. This is NPR. The U.S. drone attacks continued in Pakistan's tribal belt today with reports that two missiles fired on a car and a motorcycle killing five people. The drone program evokes

heated debate in Pakistan over its sovereignty as NPR's Julie McCarthy reports from Islamabad. It's the fourth such attack this past week. Officials speaking on condition of anonymity said Monday's attack occurred in the crucially area of north Waziristan believed to be a hotbed of Taliban activity in Pakistan's tribal region. The U.S. refuses to acknowledge the drone strikes publicly but privately officials have said that the missile attacks have killed several senior Taliban and al Qaeda militants over the years. The Obama administration has drastically accelerated the CIA run program with more than 100 such missile attacks taking place this year. Half of them in the past two and a half months the U.S. has sought to expand the territory in which the drones can operate but Pakistan has said no. It has however reportedly allowed expansion of CIA operations in and around the Pakistani city of Cueto where the U.S. believes the Afghan Taliban leadership convenes. Julie McCarthy NPR News Islamabad. A big drop in emergency room visits for very young children. Now that cough and cold medicines

for that age group have been removed from store shelves. But the study in the journal Pediatrics finds that some parents still have that medicine lying around. And some children are getting ahold of it themselves leading to bad reactions. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says parents should keep the medicine out of the reach of the children. It's also calling for better childproof containers. Well putting the turkey on the table this Thanksgiving will cost more at the Food Institute says the price of the bird is up 79 cents a pound over last year at a dollar five cents a pound. I'm Janine Herbst NPR News in Washington. Support for NPR comes from PBS exploring the life and music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono with Lennon and why you see tonight at 9:00 on American Masters on PBS. It's live and it's local. Coming up next two hours of local talk Emily Rooney show and the callee Crossley Show. Only on WGBH. Good afternoon you're listening to the Emily Rooney show. It's been just a few days since the

state's high court released that scathing report on the hiring practices at the state probation department. So far there's no evidence that lawmakers were complicit in the probation department alleged hiring abuses even though the report identifies dozens of past and current legislators who sponsored candidates for jobs within the agency. The report has been forwarded to Attorney General Martha Coakley U.S. Attorney Carmen Ortiz and Inspector General Greg Sullivan for further review. WGBH political reporter Adam Riley joins us from the state house well Adam what is the tone of things on the state house at the State House they're terrorists. Are people still buzzing about this and are people concerned that they are going to be pursued even though that report itself didn't explicitly say that anybody had done anything illegal when the state house. Spit it out. And right now I mean they're in an informal fashion. So there's a little of that. And it's Thanksgiving week so you know that those two things together would be good and create a pretty quiet atmosphere. But yes I would say it's fine and

also very Has everyone sort of holding their breath to see what's going to happen next. One of the big questions is whether this is going to in their current House be about them you know whether he is going to find a way to get out of a lobby that the House speaker pro tempore and his leadership team and has really been implicated in this scandal in a way that the unself hasn't talked with a representative a few minutes ago a woman named Jennifer Benson. She's a state rep from Lunenburg and she was on the one hand stressing that to me you know appears to be clean at this point in time and on the other hand in so many words you're basically calling for federal law to step down and I think we have that clip ready to go. It's everything that we all hate about sort of politics as usual in what can happen in government and I think it's really important to act quickly and thoroughly to ensure that not only it doesn't happen again but to really get to the root of the problem and how expensive it may be

well but I got to jump in there to say I screwed up that I actually had another clip from Jen Yeah which led to things like clean today. But yeah I had people hurt and that she you know she is one of a few people I think a lot of people who think the house muni's they care this system is us because the longer they don't the more it's going to fester. I mean that the thing of it is that whether there was criminal long doing is is somewhat beside the point I mean everybody knew from the House speaker or to Thomas Patra Lodhi to whoever was sponsoring these candidates knew that the hiring practices at the probation department were a sham so they sponsored somebody no matter how qualified or ill qualified as the case may be. Those candidates were more likely than than not to get the job because they were sponsored by and a powerful state lawmaker. Yeah I think you're exactly right and not only were they more likely to get a job they were sponsored if they happen to be sponsored into a given money to the politician to sponsor them then they were almost a lock for the

job and that I think is you know it's bad enough if this sort of phone calls being made on behalf of you know family friends or acquaintances from neighborhood or something you throw in the appearance of quid pro quo which is a phrase that all we're used to support and that's when it gets especially damning. I am still trying to get ahold of people who have sponsored candidates or mission from to get them to weigh in. It's challenging you know Bob to be oh Bob Jewett was one of the people who all answered some candidates he had been in a you know essentially in a bunker he put out a very terse statement of them of the week last week he's not you know. Haven't heard from Spence is the talk in the press. Petra Lotty took the Fifth when he was being investigated by Paul Ware and you know he's not he does not make himself available. I think we should know that there was some kind of that came from Charlie Murphy the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee late last week. This kind of is no big deal and if that's right he made some calls to try to get people jobs to apologize for and you know it's very clear there's no evidence of legal wrong

doing here. Those comments were sort of tone deaf. And there's been you know the people I've been talking to here in the House and also in other parts of the building are kind of speculating about whether those comments were made with the LEOs blasting or not you know whether whether virtuous and people have another vacation when he said this is no big deal. Or whether he was just shooting off his mouth on his own and I actually don't know the answer at this point. Very conflicting reports I mean on the issue of whether there will be you know any kind of criminal prosecution here I mean Martha Coakley is doing an inquiry into it but on what grounds would it be I know that there was some alleged solicitation of funds to you know a quid pro quo a job in the probation department if you give to a certain campaign and I'd have taken place in a cafeteria or something. But beyond that is there something that's now criminal here. Well I think what what we could be and this is still I think that it could be could be either Martha Coakley or U.S. attorney general arming our kids bringing bribery charge

I mean not too long ago Chuck Turner's name was all over the news because you know she he apparently has been convicted take a thousand dollars from a constituent in exchange for helping that constituent get a liquor license. We could if something similar go on here I mean if if if there was a clear understanding on the part of legislators that they would receive money from people and in exchange get jobs for the people who gave money and also sort of a pro quo between the Probation Department of Health in the legislature in which money was traded for jobs from the situation who then became donors. There's always the potential for bribery charges there in PA where black and up is the court I think we have a clip. I do believe I'm going to get this one when I talk to Martha Coakley on Friday and she promised that she would aggressively follow up believe that were opened up by the report. Is it do you have to be aggressive we're going to move as quickly as possible and we need to figure out the

scope of what that a system. Like this would involve for instance civil penalties from an ethics commission from the office of campaign finance it could involve civil penalties and or criminal charges both at the state into the federal level. All right so she says she's going to move on it as quickly as possible. What would what would be the federal issue here. Well Chuck Turner was was nabbed and convicted on federal bribery charges. And to be honest my legal expertise to sort of break down the difference between what would fall under the state's purview and what might fall under the purview. But. I think you know again bribery campaign finance violations which could be similar or criminal in nature. We also should remember that that the politicians too who are going to have to deal with this thing. Everyone has everyone in the legislature at least once a political risk. They don't get on top of it. If you know that these people are going to be running the some of you just narrowly won re-election again against Republican candidates this

time around and they're going to run against re-election two years and if you know if a state legislator in a part of a corrupt machine that's unwilling to reform itself or heal it off it's going to be really bad for their re-election chances. So self preservation I think is probably what's going to lead to some real action on the House side. All right Adam Riley thanks so much for joining us. Thanks so much. Speaking of self preservation the next story when we continue a reporter's questions for our society. Conflict of conscience within the Middlesex County Sheriff's Office You're listening to the Emily really show. Stay with us. The B.

You're listening to the Emily Rooney show Middlesex County Sheriff James to Pala says he can't in good conscience except both on ninety eight thousand five hundred dollar annual pension and a one hundred twenty three hundred thousand dollars salary next year. He won re-election this month but says he will resign in January. He says a question put to him by Boston Globe investigative reporter Sean Murphy helped to recalibrate his moral compass. Sean Murphy joins me by telephone Welcome Sean. And Leo you this this was a mind numbing story. There's a couple things I I just didn't understand about it though and maybe you can help me out here. It's what he was what he could have done was legal he he suspends his salary as I understand it for a couple of months after he gets elected between the time you quote retired and inaugurated. Yeah.

OK so then once he takes the office isn't he unretired again. Oh yeah he takes office as a retiree and that's the key point here that a lot. If you're elected to office as a retiree you get both because the law wants to encourage or certainly not discourage people from running for office. And he seized on it. This is this what I said I gave him credit card in quotes. He got into new ground here. No pension pretty well at this point. And he was the first one to my knowledge to do this gambit which is to resign. Without excuse me to retire without resigning before the election. Don't tell anyone continue to do the duties. And then stand for election in the status of a retiree. Unbeknownst. To the public and even his own staff in the Middlesex County Sheriff's Office. John how did you how did you find out about this did you find out that he had filed for a pension. And how did you know I'm glad you asked that because my very colleague Andrea

asked and got the tip. She somehow she I don't know I don't know but somebody informed her. And then you know they came to me and said you know the pension. It together which happened what we know have only from logic is that he had to reveal what he was doing in a couple of instances. He had to file formally. Retirement papers which he did. October 28 with the state retirement boy so there's one opportunity and he had to go into his own office to his payroll person and say take me off the payroll now between now and you know January and so you know these things tend to you know particularly in these times these people are hurting taxpayers I'm much more vigilant about how their own money is being spent. These things tend to perk perk up at some point. And I just saw Murphy from the Boston caucus the other thing I don't get why do you why is he

resigning. Well why isn't he taking the sheriff's job and the sheriff's salary forego the pension for now take the pension after he serves his term. Well that's another good question. And he's doing it because he's had enough he's had an efficient Tiffani and he's not only wants to not take the pension which was highly suspect but I want to get out of the job and do something different with his life. He's 57 34 years of public service. He's got a high salary. He begins January as a retiree with a pension of Elmo. 100000 in health care paid. He called me early Saturday morning after being interviewed the evening before defending what he was doing. And he you know he said he had a sleepless night. I do believe him. Yeah you know I had a sleepless night when I saw him I did certainly because he didn't look his eyes were red rimmed and you know he looked like he had been had

sleepless night. Yeah he wrote a letter to the residents of Middlesex and in it he says today I want to thank Sean Murphy and Austin Cobra reminding me of all the reasons that I served in public service for 36 years and assisting me in making this decision. I mean you were going to out him Sean. I mean well I'm going to get out and I've well got to chip again. And I asked him the ordinary questions I took some effort to reach him and did and I asked why are you doing this and do you think it's right. Do you think it's manipulative. Do you think. How do you think people would think about it and I did say you know this is what you're going to be remembered for. You said to me according to him you said you know Sheriff if you do this it will be your legacy and not any good you have done. Well yeah because he had mentioned rightly so that he had taken certain steps as of Malden police officer for 18 years as a state legislator for as a sheriff for 14 years he had thought he had a good record and done some good.

I didn't mind telling me that when I was interviewing him. Day and I said well yeah that may well be true however and this is what's going to be remembered for and it is I would have thought because this is you know in some level very clever. There you read the law I read the law and I went to law school and it is just a little narrow gap that he exploited could have exploited for the benefit of 600000. Well but John I'm curious do you think that he was going to miss in since he's had it he's already done five or six terms whatever it is as sheriff if he got into office in January might he have resigned anyway and then taken the two and run I mean you know if he had resigned in January and retired you know he would be in the same boat that he's in now. He would only have gotten one job you know I don't want to delegate is it time it I think you know what he said I want to do something different if you had three children grown and got it.

You know you got some good things in his life. Very personable guy and personable with me both on Friday night when I was grilling him. And Saturday and his reputation among other reporters is an affable and likeable guy and let me ask you about another report by Mike Botha by that name right on Fox 25 claiming that he says that. Sheriff Paul is also taking credit cash. You know people were handing him cash during the last election cycle and had done it before do you know anything about that. DA I don't know anything about that. Haven't seen the report and I have to see the what the what facts. Mike Boettcher has come up with the interesting might by this time it wasn't to. Research him and report on his record. This is a one day reporting cycle. And as you know there's often things said about people in public life. Frequently.

And I would only speak to it if I exact it just to get it myself. Well I'm going to have the opportunity to ask the sheriff about all of this tonight. He's coming on Greater Boston seven Sheriff James DePaul will be on. Sean Murphy thanks for coming on. Thank you Emily. All right we'd like to hear from you. What do you think about this. These are loopholes in the pension system. We change it completely. Is it legal because that's the way the system is. E-mail us at Emily Rooney show at WGBH dot org or visit us on the web at WGBH dot org slash Emily Ronie. We're going to take a short break when we continue our Financial Group joins us to discuss the big tensions affecting the lame duck congressional session. You're listening to the Emily Rooney show. Stay with us. Support for WGBH comes from you and from Boston Private Bank and

Trust Company. Committed to helping successful individuals and businesses accumulate. Preserve and grow their wealth. You can learn more at Boston. Private Bank dot com. And from the New England mobile book fair in Newton. For 53 years New England's independent bookstore. The New England mobile book fair find them online at an e-book fair dot com. That's an e-book fair dot com. And from Brussels a family tradition for over one hundred and thirty years. With Thanksgiving centerpieces candles and decor plus 20 decorated Christmas trees in the gift and toy shops. Russell's garden center Route 20 in Waveland. In 1062 Carlos Eyre was one of thousands of children airlifted out of Cuba sent to Florida to escape Castro's regime. His parents thought he'd be back as soon as Castro was deposed and every Cuban's mind. Is the thought. This cannot last so long. So you gamble but he never returned home on the next FRESH AIR. Carlos Eyre he has a new

memoir joining us. This afternoon at two on eighty nine point seven WGBH. Hi this is Cathy Fuller from ninety nine point five. Boston's all of us. Nation and I hope you'll join me next spring for our Spanish melodies getaway with the WGBH learning tours will take in opera art and visit the island of Majorca Chopin's famous winter escape. Learn more at WGBH dot org slash learning tours. I'm Kelly Crossley. Coming up on the kallah costly show we kick off a week of hip hop history month with Cyndi Diggs founder of peace Boston that more today and one at eighty nine point seven. WGBH. You're listening to the Emily Rooney show three weeks ago Republicans made big gains in the midterm

elections largely by promising voters they would make big cuts to government spending. But with Congress now reconvene for a lame duck session the promise of deficit reduction is running afoul of other priorities. They would probably add to the deficit notably extending the Bush tax cuts and whether to extend unemployment benefits. Here to sort out all the tough choices is Bob Posen chairman emeritus of FS Investment Management. Welcome Bob. To be back Emily. Well you said here and elsewhere in recent months that you think that the Bush tax cuts should probably be extended at least for another year but there's all these other things looming. You know the that the Medicare reduction payments the extending the unemployment benefits. I mean all of this stuff would add to the deficit what other big lines what else can they take a whack at other than defense and that's of course an issue as well. Well there doesn't appear to be a certain schizophrenia with on the one hand saying you want to

cut spending on the other hand every time you turn around soon people want to either increase spending or cut tax revenues. I think the way to think about this the way to try to make sense of what seemed to be very contradictory. Movements is it short term versus long term. Right now everyone agree the economy is pretty fragile. We are probably taking monetary policy as far some would see more further than it can be. So we've got to deal with this on a fiscal basis. But I think that the combination that we should try to be looking for is to increase spending modestly over the next year or so but to at the same time show some long term discipline on spending. I think that's what the markets are looking for that's what China is looking for which controls a large portion of our treasuries. So it's the combination of trying to do something in the short

term to help the difficult situation. But for the first time deal with the long term. And I think that that's the winning combination. You know it. This is a very emotional issue for people. As I said a few minutes ago the Republicans rode into Congress largely on this issue of. Cutting government spending. And yet John Boehner who's about to be the new House speaker wants says he wants less debt. But he also wants the permanent tax cuts because that's popular among a certain group of Republicans anyway maybe the wealthier ones. Well I think the tax cuts as you know are worth on a 10 year basis all together all tax cuts if we continue them about 3.3 trillion so that's a lot that's a serious number. And even if 100 billion in 2011 alone. Yeah. And so we need to be careful not to do something that's going to really lock us into. A serious deficit problem and I think that the consensus now even stronger after

the election is let's let's have this that the Bush tax cuts for everybody not just people below 200 250. Let's have that extended for a year or two. I think politically that's the compromise Democrats would rather not have it for a long time. But more and more Democrats are worried about the short term. And Republicans of course want that permanent. But no one gets everything. So if you have an extension for a year or two you're essentially saying to both parties put this to the next election and then let the people decide. Now do you think they should do. I think it is the only. I think it's both sensible economically short term and it's also politically the answer. But if you do that and you you know decide OK let's have a few other spending issues. Again you can look at them short term unemployment benefits there's arguments for and against it's a modest number. I mean when we're talking about the federal budget.

So there's an argument for doing it the question is What are the big numbers the big numbers going forward our defense. Medicare and Social Security. And I was very pleased to see that the co-chairs of the budget commission came out with a serious proposal that you know it's serious because everyone is yelling and screaming. So you know that they've gored every ox. This is put in a more positive light shared sacrifice. And the reality is that's the only way you're going to do it and these numbers. Social Security is about four point seven trillion over the next 75 years. Medicare is probably three times that number defense. That's what you really have to go after and those wouldn't take into effect wouldn't come into effect next year they just couldn't because every proposal for Social Security or Medicare is phased in at about 2012. Now I got into a big discussion last night about this Medicare thing which I have to confess of ignorance to

but. There talk about a reduction of some 23 percent in what Medicare would pay to doctors for services as it is they only pay about 20 percent of the bill and doctors. The issue is Will doctors Concini continue to take Medicare patients if they're only going to get 20 percent back on their efforts. This is what it is like a kabuki play in Japan. Every year we're supposed to be reducing the amount that doctors get paid in Medicare and every year for the last I don't know how many years we decided not to do it. Unfortunately when the health care bill passed in Congress they counted something in the area of 460 billion in Medicare reductions over the next 10 years and a good part of that was doctors reduction now the people in the budget office said to me we had to score it because it's in the law. But there's no one who believes that that's going to actually happen for the exact reasons you know and it will happen. I don't think it will happen and I do believe that we need to. We need to

reconsider the health care bill in light of actual cost and benefits and I think it's just it's too easy to have somebody say OK it's theoretically in the law that going to reduce doctor's fees by 20 or 23 percent every year. So he put in there though everyone agrees it's not going to happen so that's not good. So people need to take a look at them and and deal with real cost control I totally support of universal health but if we're making that budget balance by saying we're going to reduce doctors fees it's just unrealistic. We're not going to do it. So we need to make that budget balance and those are much bigger numbers. So I think the that's the key. The other thing you should keep in mind is about March or April we're going to reach the ceiling on the debt the public debt. What does that mean. That means that Congress is going to have to extend it beyond I think it's going to be fourteen point three trillion as the

total gross public debt and that's when they'll be real blood on the table because the Tea Party people are going to say. We're not going to go along with this unless you put conditions for spending. And so the question as you say is we're dealing with small potatoes here relative to defense Social Security and Medicare so are they prepared to do that and then the other thing is you have Fannie and Freddie. Well we've had a lot of Republicans in the last five years saying they should be disbanded they're no good. Well they'll have a chance to do it now. Let's see let's see if they're willing to to really bite the bullet and I'm I'm going to be skeptical about all of that. I'm more kind of down to earth Monday but something everybody thinks about the estate tax or the death tax. Well that which there is none this year you're right. People talk about you know committing suicide so their relatives will get his grazing stuff. You knew that was going to happen euthanasia before December thirty first. What will happen there.

I'm hopeful that well I believe there will be a tax compromise before the end of the year that the lame duck Congress essentially has only two things they must do. One is the budget actually. We don't have a budget for this year it runs out. There's a what's called a continuing budget resolution that ends on December 3rd. Hopefully we won't close down the government will extend that and the second is they have to do the deal with the whole tax situation by the imam by December 15th you have alternative minimum tax you'll explain that what your alternative mid alternative minimum tax was a system was put in 20 years ago. That said here we're going to sort of say here's your regular income tax and then we're going to do is have a second computation in which you get almost no deductions that's the key. But we're going to have a much lower rate which is 20 percent but we're not going to give you big deductions for local taxes for. So you're doing either or as a tax filer. Unfortunately the way it works is you have to do them both whichever is greater

whichever pays. Now there is a silver lining there and that is we ought to think about the alternative minimum tax in my view as the way to go in the future. I mean when you think about it is if we want to have a lower rate and eliminate lots of deductions and other things. That's actually what you would do you would go to. Whether it's twenty eight or 25 or 24 percent and you wouldn't have as many deductions. Because when you have all those deductions they actually mainly go to accrue to benefits of higher income people a lot of people actually itemize. So that's actually not a bad model. We know I mean the Forbes call for this years ago this is well the flat tax he's going for it would come down to about 17 17 percent and I don't know if we could get down that low but I think let me put this way. Everyone who's serious about tax reform would say we need less of deductions less of these various exemptions and all these things that people play games with. And if we did all that and we got a lower rate

that would be a more effective system in a more workable system. What about the expenses on the two wars. I mean Obama has got to be just wringing his hands over this. And at some point he's going to have to make a really dramatic pullback. It's well he just he announced recently before we were going to be pulled out. I think in the summer of 2011 what I heard last week out of the Nader was 2012 2014 it keeps going back. I think this is going to be a tough issue. Now I assume you'll have Republicans pushing harder for more spending in Afghanistan. We just the reality is we just can't have all this. We just can't have two wars. Health care reform. Universal health lower taxes we. It just doesn't add up. So so we have two

choices. Either we can do something rational like the budget commission is proposing or we go through we have shared sacrifice. And I don't think that's actually what's going to happen. But the other possibilities we wait for a blow up in the bond markets. And at some point you hear this a lot when you're in Asia people are saying can the U.S. control its budget. We had 1.4 trillion in the year ending. 2009 we just had another 1.4 trillion dollar budget deficit we're headed pretty much toward 1.4 trillion. So while it's easy to say now we all know the answer 1.4 trillion. That's a lot of money. And so I think something's got to give. So what we need to do again is short term to fix the estate tax fix Alternative Minimum Tax get a one or two year extension and that in the Bush tax cuts in then at the same time really get serious and maybe this debt ceiling is this is the right thing is really get serious about having

dealing with Medicare Social Security and defense because those were the big numbers. And I think we don't want to divert ourselves on small numbers. Gotta look for the big numbers. Posen German emeritus of and s Investment Management. Do you think that there is a looming crisis of confidence in the United States solvency ally Greece or Ireland. Well I don't think we're anywhere near the situation as Greece in Ireland but. And second of all I don't think that places like China which now holds either 900 billion U.S. treasuries are actually going to stop buying U.S. treasuries because they own so many they have a vested interest in our success. But I do think we are at a very low interest rate for 10 years and 30 years and people don't realize how that actually is one of the biggest supports for a weak economy. We're below. The tenure is usually the normal ranges

five to five and a half percent to 6 percent. We're now in three and I have three 75 percent I mean it's a very low rate. So I believe that the the real risk here and it's a serious risk is that people in China and Japan are going to say we're going to demand a lot higher interest rates we're going to go back to normal just think if interest rates the 10 year rose by 2 percent you have a huge effect. We have 14 trillion in debt. That's two hundred eighty billion a year just on interest payments. And you have credit cards mortgages really big stuff. So again that's what I think's going to happen if we don't show the world. By the time this budget ceiling is raised that we can actually do something. And the big items over the next 10 years at some point the world's going to run out OK. They're going to say again the international world it's not like they're going to stop buying treasuries because the good news for the U.S. dollar is it's the least ugly of three

currencies is the Euro good currency is the yen a good currency no. But rates are a different story. We're in a particular point now of weakness we have a lot of issues but. QE 2 quantitative easing hasn't lowered rates so far it's actually raised rates a little. So I think we've been living in from a rate environment in a very positive and very nice environment that could easily evaporate and that's where I think the rubber hits the road when the people buying our treasuries say we no longer believe that whoever's in power is really serious about long term constraint on spending. And we're not going to keep letting you print deficits of 1.4 trillion every year it's just too much. Now there's a report in the week or the week in The Boston Globe I think it was saying that the recession officially or formally ended in June of 0 9. And then they did this survey of polling. Nobody believed it nobody had any concept of it. I mean everybody's still feeling like the economy is heading wrong

direction there is that forecast about you know holiday shopping that you know it's like to make a dent. I mean is it is it over. Well it's over in a technical sense when they said though that's a group of people. Very qualified economists are looking in a very narrow definition. So they're talking about whether the economy is contracting or growing over certain number of quarters so technically it's over but as a practical matter our unemployment rate still close to 10 percent. Our economic growth rate is low. And you know you don't see a lot of confidence and in the end that's the most important thing I don't believe bringing rates down a quarter percent more makes a big difference. We need confidence consumers need confidence and they will get confidence when they feel that their job isn't really that fragile and business people this is where we need to look to because business people have a HUGE amounts of cash on hand we've never had so much cash on hand. Why are they not spending it.

Well they say tell us what the tax rate is for next year we don't even know what the tax rate is for next year tell us what this is tell us so that uncertainty is the enemy of business investment and we have about as much uncertainty now as you could possibly have you know actually I mean you just look at what's happening with the tax cuts I mean one group is projecting if you extend the tax cuts it's going to you know spur the economy that this is going to hold trickle down the other half says no it's going to add to the debt no one's going to hire people anyway so you might as well cut the tax. Well I don't think I don't think anybody could seriously argue that short term a short term change in the in the tax environment. That was I would actually drive to see it done for two years at least we know what the tax situation is. It will increase the deficit but if we combine that with some discipline on the 10 year basis that's what the markets are looking for that's what business people are looking for. They're looking not just for the one you're situation but over the 10 years and that's what we haven't given them. And until we do that we're in the

soup here and that's where I go back to the bipartisan budget commission and we'll know on December 1st. That's their chance to see whether they can get 14 votes 14 out 18 votes for any recommendation. The way I look at him will you that's the high water mark. Those are sort of the most reasonable people from both parties some of them aren't elected politicians. Others are you know what I mean if that group can't agree then this is not to doesn't it's not a good omen for the future that they have to have some kind they have to come up with something. They do not have to come up with a recommendation. They have to issue a report their report can say here. We have lots of ideas but we haven't been able to get the commission to have 14 votes on anything that unfortunately is a real possibility. That is you have the commission but there are no commission recommendations all there are individual recommending them what would they do. Basically they would dismantle everybody walk away and say Here is a group of people tried hard but they couldn't agree. And if that happens that's a really

bad sign as I said those you know the two heads co-chairs and put up proposals. Those guys are not in politics at the moment they're retired. We have other people. If you can't get 14 out of 18 of that group to agree on these shared sacrifice recommendations that's a sign that it's going to be much tougher in Congress. And unfortunately I think the odds are 50/50 that the budget commission will not be able to agree really now on a recommendation. All right anyway I think we're hoping you're wrong on that one. You're right about have lost everything. Talking about Chairman 50 chairman emeritus and FS I didn't say it's a certainty but 50/50 chance. All right got it. Thanks Bob. Always a pleasure to have you here. OK I wish I had better news. But we'll see on December 1st. All right thanks very a day after a break when we continue our Monday morning quarterback Bob LaBelle breaks down the Patriots win yesterday and previews their Thanksgiving Day matchup with the Lions. Listen the Emily Rooney show. Stay with us.

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Next time on the world bar Daria may be the most popular entertainer in Afghanistan but he's been living in the United States for nearly a decade. Now he's performing live concerts across Afghanistan and he's got an agenda. He calls himself a peace ambassador. His concert tour just took him to the heart of Taliban country. Afghan pop star Farhad Darya next time on the world. Coming up at 3 o'clock here at eighty nine point seven WGBH. WGBH radio host Kelly Crossley on what she thinks qualifies as real news real news for the Cali cross the show is a panoramic view not just a snapshot. We believe that real news provides context offers fresh angles and injects a touch of humor occasionally. We are looking for stories that matter today and tomorrow. Tell WGBH what

real news means to you by giving your opinion at real news WGBH dot org. You're listening to the Emily Rooney show. Thanksgiving is this Thursday and for many of us that means it is a shorter work week days for the New England Patriots as well after surviving our fourth quarter scare from Peyton Manning in the Post yesterday that will quickly refocus and prepare for a Thanksgiving afternoon matchup with the Lions in Detroit. Here to talk about yesterday's win Thursday's game and a host of other sports stuff. Monday Morning Quarterback I am hired on. So that was that was a tense game yesterday I was I mean it looked like a runaway and I was oh my you know we've seen this movie we know how it ends but it was I think the Patriots are very fortunate to come away with a win. I mean honestly the Colts were driving down there and it was just that interception that made the difference they were going to score they were going to score isn't a factor and you feel you just cannot let Manning touch the ball with him. Yes

unbelievable. And the Patriots were really kind of let down by there often in the fourth period for not holding onto the ball for going three and out three times and giving the ball back to Manning and allowing him to have the opportunities. He's remarkable I know Brady is remarkable. And after the game you know I think Brady summed it up pretty well. A lot sweeter for done something and what's going to help our defense. We played nice guys we knew was going to come down to the end but I def. came up with a place to play catch by game is unbelievable. So you believe you were happy we wanted I mean Ace and he beat the Colts and I'll be happy. Yeah I hear that says they're happy they won this. That was just about five seconds short of a disaster and you know in the bigger picture it really is if you can kind of step back the chance to see these two guys play on the same field against one another those opportunities are dwindling. But I think most people would recognize these are two of the greatest performers at that position that ever played. And so these things

in the bigger picture you know forgetting the wins and losses the seeing them on the same field. It's a pretty cool thing. It was very cool the fact is because I needed to hear what is about that. There's something about the inner city cliche but. But the precision that those two guys have. I mean why do they have it and why everybody else is just a quarterback. First of all they're smart they're very intelligent and they're even smarter about the game that they play which is a very complicated game to those of us who are on the outside so that I think they're able to perform at that level because they know. Where the people that the throwing the ball to or whatever are going to be. And you're only as good as your surrounding cast. So this was the problem with the Colts yesterday they were a patchwork football team and they almost pulled it off because you know Manning has meaning in it because there was that one.

I never know the names there but Manning obviously. Way under threw the ball or just yeah didn't and you know who's even throwing it to and it was an interception at that point so there were three interceptions yesterday right. Three interceptions one on the no one on the other side. They all Anderson Manning threw three interceptions and they still almost won the game. But it shows how great he is and some of those routes that those receivers took I think were not because they were just because they were inexperienced but to go back to your original question Brady and Manning are extremely smart about what they do and about the people that they're working with and you know when you have it when you're in sync and you know if you're thinking the same thing as your producer or your quarterback if you're both or are of one mind it works so you can actually see a play in some of these other things you know what was that. This you can actually see how the play works from hand right. Right through the thing that they got it now is pretty cool it's a very you know and that's why they are who they are and the success that they've read.

All right so the Detroit Lions. There is I think it's a 12:30 game. They're not doing that great right lions are terrible. They're terrible but at home on Thanksgiving home on Thanksgiving it's not just me. I'm waiting. I thought why and so they're going to be at home yeah. And this is regular you know an annual event the Lions home on Thanksgiving. I national holiday always hit why is that why the lines of you know its own assets was one of those nos one of those like you know New Hampshire being used to the nation. Very good. What a comparison no reason Bingo. Absolutely that had no rhyme or reason why. I swear I didn't know that and you know that you know I think even the Lions are I believe you know I think you know the Lions are saying why do we have to do this. Can't we change it and I felt as you know this is ingrained in the viewing habits of America and it is you expect it and they change the opponent every year this happens to be the Patriots year to suffer. Going around playing two games with a 90 hour and it's almost incomprehensible that I asked those guys to do that but they are.

Yeah somebody has sued every year so lions and look at this record thing alliance. Somebody put my foot Lions stink. Thirty seven since 2008 is that right. I did one for you know they had some. They've had a really bad run as a franchise. This is probably one of their better teams save one two games this year. This is probably one of their better teams can you if you can believe that so this would be a bad one to lose if this was not be good. But anything the problem with playing the lions at home on Thanksgiving is the Lions are really of kind of like emotionally high for this. But I don't know they have a new coach this is one of their better teams at this point of the season. Here's the deal. They play the Jets two weeks from tonight half at Foxboro. That's the game they have with 30. Yeah yeah that's the game they have to when they lose alliances not you know at the end where you know the Jets game will be huge. Yeah. If you think so Bob are you with the Harvard Yale game over the weekend. No but I read about it and I was listening on the radio I didn't want to know.

Good for you you know it's the best one ever was the MIT balloon. If you remember that MIT they planted this elaborate balloon hoax and the time to vent in the middle of the Harvard-Yale game was one of those MIT pranks and the balloon would inflate and indeed it did and it had MIT written all over it. It was it was a remarkable one of the greatest pranks of all and what was the point of it. Just to kind of put you disrupt the game as rap he say hey you know how do you know we support her oh yeah you know the smartest people on earth Harvard you know where MIT and we pulled off this enormous electronic gas event and it stopped the game and that is it. I drove by there course I was avoiding him. An accident in the Mass Pike which went on for the entire day that accident happened at like 7 in the morning and close down the Mass Pike to two lanes for seven or eight hours so I thought oh I'll get around that course I cannot drive

thinking oh my god. That was just zoom on words it's hard to get in it's hard to get out. It's just that's part of the audience for that day so you go it at 8:00 or 9:00 in the morning you tailgate in just you know plan to spend the whole day there. Wait a minute there's a note here this is Larry Lucchino couldn't get in because he lost his tickets I saw a picture of him in the paper at the game what are you talking about. Probably talk this way you know you know he's a lawyer he could talk his way in and Harvard's won four in a row they'd become a football factory and you know what it was. I just go back to that MIT thing and you know they're saying it was 1992. Yeah. Where were you in 1970. I was here I was in Boston I was at Channel 5. We had to cover that story and it was put off by a fraternity at MIT. Actually one over there Tom Ellis. Oh my I was actually yeah. I know I did it. Porter STARR Now that is there. So he did a reporter story YASID done it for Channel 5 yeah it was that yes that was then Tom Ellis I remember was at least

covering it goes back to World War I World was flat when actually when you sent actually sent people out on stories. But we know no weekend that's that would it. Well maybe he was right and that was Monday night I think it was a half and after the fact. Good for them the fraternity owned up to it. Nobody knew who did it. The fraternity owned up to it and we all had to go out and cover. I you know I want you to weigh in on something we did a story on Meet the Press on Friday night about one hundred five The Sports Hub vs.. And we've got more response in that story to say than any political story anything else. Why do you think that is. I don't know I'm asking you about the response. Yeah I mean you know people just so passionate now about sports which I listen to because you know the Patriots are on there but I was kind of unaware that they had this whole you know. There they are challenging them in the ratings. Yeah I think that's that's true in certain day parts 95 as God passed by and you know that when you listen to I listen to both of them you know I

listen to what does it say that you know Boston has big enough to be as to all sports radio. There's something about I'll own up to telling you that I never thought the town could support one sports talk station 24 hours and I was dead wrong on that. Now we have to I mean yeah the thrust of the you know the e-mails and the comments we were getting was you know that you know they're really supporting you know something you know a group that's kind of moving. Of course you know it's part of the fabric of the sports fan to respond through. OK so there are much more likely find Beat the Press that's what I want to know. We got sports fans but on the other hand you know who's to say one station didn't you know have a bunch of people emailing I don't know if they are a POS anything. It's kind I was just I guess I was just surprised. You know it's not outside of their home world. She had shows this is the breath of your audience yeah sure diversity and diversity you're able to reach out and pull these people in. Well you know I know I take it as a hey

that was great let's do it again sometime and see if it really works works. I came away thinking it's going to be a little concerned. I think they are I think anybody that had their way for a decade or so and somebody else had moves into the neighborhood it's like the I don't remember and yeah I was all news right. Anything quick to say Have a good Celtics and the Bruins. You know it's two or less in a way you know I so agree with you it's like I want to come back and we'll talk after June. Yeah well let's talk a little maybe maybe March 1st. It was close. Yeah. OK Will. Yeah I'm sure you'll be watching. Thursday I'll be. Well I think we'll all be watching know what you're I'm I'm not cooking on cooking a little bit. Here's the deal people to plan their old dinners around the you know to have dinner for Watty and I say all right by them so much thanks to everybody that you pop right now our Monday morning quarterback. All right we'll be back tomorrow at Noon ET with a local casting agency who's offering Boston accent reduction classes. You heard it any time to knit a

Greater Boston tonight at 7:00 Middlesex County Sheriff James DePaulo is here to explain his retirement and slash pension issue. He's going to retire now that he says he's no longer to take a pension and a salary. All right. Family reunion show is a production of eighty nine point seven WGBH Boston NPR station producing culture on the web at WGBH that org slash Emily Rooney the Kelly Crossley Show is coming up next on Emily Rooney. The Great. Happening.