North Carolina People; William Leuchtenburg, Kenan Professor of History Emeritus, UNC-CH

Good evening ladies and gentlemen. We have locked and barred as an international scholar and teacher known around the world for studies of the American presidency. Weigh in professor at the University Distinguished Professor. You also know that he collaborated with Ken Burns on a great documentary on baseball the great pastime of all and so plays a to sit down with me this evening so that we can talk a bit about what happened just a week ago. Will do so in just a few seconds. Sponsored in part by a Wells Fargo Company helping North Carolina people realize their financial goals since 879 and through the financial contributions of viewers like you who invite you to join them in supporting. My dear friend it's certainly

good to see you again and have you back on this program one more time it's a joy. I think the first time we did this bill Millard Fillmore was in the White House it seems like forever anyway. Kind of bad but I want to get something very important when you take on the World Series it just ended. You know I found it hard after not opening day to when it went when we were so disappointing to whip up the kind of interest I've had in past years. But it's been the pitcher's season and baseball the land that it surely has. But you saw a demonstration there already. Bill how significant was the midterm election to the American citizens. Well I think it's a it's one of these elections that could be tidal and its effect is the biggest gain for the Republicans of House seats since 1938 which is more than two thirds of a

century ago. At the same time we've seen times in the past and I know you have Bill when there's been a bit big victory in the midterm election and it looked very different two years later. And we think of in 1946 the Democrats were so badly defeated that Senator Fulbright suggested that President Truman appoint a Republican as secretary of state and resign on the spot and certainly never ever thereafter. Truman called him Senator half right and Truman refused to do this and we all now owed two years later Truman was re-elected and this election is frequently compared to that of 1994 when Clinton and the Democrats suffered so badly and then two years later Clinton was elected to a second term. That's not to

say that that is necessarily the most likely scenario. Certainly this is a this is a bad beating that the Democrats had a week ago. The Tea Party Sandro you and I have seen things like this happen but that particular one I was just noticing on the network this morning that I was pale and back 40 some candidates and 20 of them won. How seriously do you see this phenomena. Well I think they I think it's probably a passing phenomenon. And and when you say that 20 of them one bill it means 20 of them the Shabak didn't win. That's right when clearly the Tea Party hurt the Republicans and and a number of states most notably Delaware where there was a very strong Republican congressman just I'm almost sure to win. That was one of the reasons that a Beau Biden Joe Biden's son decided he wouldn't be a candidate just as it is this year. And then the Tea Party

named candidate who clearly was unqualified and the Republicans lost a seat that they might otherwise have have won. The candidate in New York State lost by more than a million votes. So it's it's been at best a mixed blessing for the Republican Party. And now they face the question particularly in the Senate how they're going to accommodate people of such extreme views and still be a plausible party. Two years later when the national elections come due I'm sure that you noticed in last Sunday's times when Frank Rich wrote a column about using this moment as a foil to the real power of Republican Party just waiting it start and then move in take over and pick their own candidate. Yeah that's a game you and I have heard many doubted before that is that right. That's right that's right Bill.

And the the Sarah Pailin phenomenon is one that everybody is watching because the Republicans so they appear to be in a very good position for defeating Obama assuming he's the candidate for re-election two years from now to not have any strong obvious candidate. So Sarah Palin is getting all the attention and drawing away from the kind of attention that a more plausible Republican candidate might get. Where did the Obama administration misfire from the inauguration to two years and maybe in taking power days or the emphasis from where it went was a mistake made. Well let me say at the start bill that my first inclination is not to blame Obama for the Democratic setback. The any time that a party in

power comes to a mid-term election they're likely to be defeated as happened all but three times in the 20th century. Beyond that when you've got a recession of this Depp's a recession inherited from the previous presidency you're in deep trouble. And that's been true of even some of the most popular presidents in our history. Franklin Roosevelt suffered that kind of setback in 1938 Dwight Eisenhower didn't 1058 Ronald Reagan did in 1962. So far be 1982. So there is one ought not to be too quick to finger Obama. That having been said I think that a big mistake that Obama made was to give priority to health care important so that was as over against a jobs program. I'm frequently asked to compare Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama and when the first midterm election for FDR

came in 1934 the Democrats upset the usual historical pattern by winning large gains in both houses of Congress and despite the fact that there were still millions of people unemployed. And he did so for two reasons I think. One is that he set up a jobs program and people could look around and they could see the TVA dams growing up they could see people like the S.S. boot boys the Civilian Conservation Corps going into forests including the forests of most of North Carolina whether ACK or a left a left a big mark. The other is that the American people felt that Roosevelt was a president who cared for them who could see who could sympathize with the fact that they didn't have jobs. And Obama is not very good at projecting that. And this is one of those cases where a man's virtue can be a

handicap. But one admires about Obama and I think much about Obama is admirable is that he's so unflappable that he is able to keep his cool in the most difficult of circumstances but that very. Quality not excellent quality also means that he has some difficulty in showing empathy. Blue collar workers will feel that he really knows what they're going through. One of the networks last night had excerpts of Jefferson's campaign and John Adams as you campaign and you worry about civility in political life today. Oh I do. That's again something I'm often asked as a historian and I'm asked if this is worse than it's been in the past because we know about the Jefferson Adams campaign we know what that Lincoln was called the gorilla. We know that. Andrew

Jackson was accused of living with a woman who was not his not his wife a actually a false accusation. And people expect me to say well you know these things have always been bad but I don't I do think that the level of civility is lower now than it's ever been before a single instance Bill. When the congressman Republican congressman from South Carolina shouted at President Obama when he was giving a State of the Union address. You lie. Now I don't know any time in the past where such an event occurred no one could imagine such an event occurring. They say now so to develop a systematic contamination one thing follows another and this gets so brutal in the end someone that we were seeing this past week would really fares terrible on a number of instances

telling lies. I don't think you will live. It's putting forth people is endorsing them who in fact were not and not and divorcing him. No limits to the kinds of blatant appeals that they would make if you were guessing what Mr. Boehner and his new majority in the House are going to insist on being the next items on the agenda. Are they going to attack health care and try to abolish what was done. Well I don't think they can imagine that they can actually repeal the health care legislation because though this has been a setback for the Democrats not only have the Republicans not been able to gain control of the Senate but they are far from having a veto proof majority. And it's quite possible that Obama will be using to veto a considerable number of times when I think they will attempt to do is to pare away at

particular provisions of health care particularly ones that employers are telling them they resent. And that's that. How about The Wall Street aspect of these arguments do you expect any further litigation. I mean any further legislation with reference to that money market problem. I don't think so I think new ventures that Obama would attempt are all but dead in the water. I think you and I both agree with that that the problem of global warming is something that the American government ought to be addressing with each day the polar ice caps melting more. But I see no prospect that that that is going to get any attention in the and the next Congress it's rather going to be a defensive action that Obama is going to be carrying out there.

One of the interesting things that happened in this election was ten Republican governors. Now and when you look at the dominance of the and in the house but not in the Senate and just saying that getting down closer to the electorate is having an impact here and it needs a pretty dramatic figures. Oh I think so. And they could have a great deal greater consequence to less attention is being paid to them than they turn over in and the House for what for the next presidential election because it's the governors and the legislatures that are going to be redistricting and that can have a very considerable impact on the makeup of Congress as for the next decade and beyond. One of the interesting statistics that we're banding about in the networks was it. Three cases three women spend a quarter of a billion dollars campaigning for these offices.

California particularly in Connecticut money in a midterm election and that dimension where wages go to and I don't know what it that the hopeful thing that provides as the lesson is that money isn't everything and we've seen that in some other elections in recent years in Minnesota for example where a very very wealthy man hoped to buy buy his way to victory and and and failed. But there has been in part as a result of that I think most unfortunate United States Supreme Court decision a poor ring in money into local campaigns the likes of which we've never seen before. And it shouldn't be exaggerated in that the Democrats actually have more money to spend in the house than Republicans did. But what that this money did was to take candidates for four House seats or even to the United States Senate who are in no way

qualified. And the candidates who would not have been given much consideration and raises them to the level where they could win and in some instances did win. You know we're in a situation now where you've got the Republican plurality in the house a close vote in the Senate and the president we say needs divided situations before but is that old political maximum that the public puts one party in power here and gets us one to checkmate that one and both of them to checkmate the president. I really don't think so because I don't think that's the point of consideration that voters have when they go into an election booth and they don't they can fart because they have such limited opportunity all I can do is vote for their particular House member or or every third. Third time

for the United States Senate. So one hears that. But I've I've never put much stock in it. I thought it was interesting last night that Mr. Boehner who are going to be the next speaker. That this is no time for celebration. This is time from beginning to pick up our days. This is time but working on jobs. What do you expect to happen there. Well this is something that a victorious party will will always say. We are reaching out if if the Democrats had won in a recent election they would have been saying that the same thing. Now what the Republicans know very well what happened between 1994 and 1996 the way that they blew an opportunity by shutting down the United States government twice and some are are saying that they've learned their lesson and they're going to be considerably more moderate this time. But nothing that I see of a future Speaker

Boehner you would just be talking about or Mitch McConnell in the Senate let alone this infusion of Tea Party people into Congress leads me to believe they have learned their lesson. We'll see. We've been talking about the national scene there both North Carolina and it's rather interesting that with all this is going on that only one congressional delegation seat. Reversed itself this time so far. That's right and that's rather Right us after saying with all that that foreign money we're talking about at least the press is reporting coming in and huge volumes and state what do you attribute it to Bill. Native intelligence native. Oh my congressman is the best but right writes Mark Karr here and I'm glad to be treated as a North Carolinian. I've been here more than 30 years. You can't be anything else.

I care for your well I remember that I came here not knowing what the reception would be and I'd been here only about a year when I picked up the rolling news an observer and found that I was Tarheel of the of the week. But to return to your question that the outside money. It centered on four congressional districts in North Carolina for a lot of money and all four of those seats were appeared to be in doubt some thought they were sure to go over to the Republicans. And as you say only one of them did. And that one is in dispute that that's being contested. I'm going to go along with your notion of the common sense and intelligence of North Carolina citizens. But that's going to be an interesting time because it's such a transition going to take place in the legislative structure. Oh I would give way now to a different one. But it's going to be very hard when you

are saying you face a straight billion dollar deficit. I don't think you're going to hear so much loud talk anymore but it's got to pull together. Don't day's things produce a coalition. Well this is this is a problem both in the North Carolina legislature is going to be a problem in and in Congress. They were asking the new senator from Kentucky senator elect Rand Paul what his priority was and he said to balance the budget. Well the only way they're going to balance the budget is to raise taxes which the Republicans say they're against or to cut severely a number of surface services that people cherish. And that's going to be one of the harder wards for for victory and the same is true in the North Carolina legislature. It's just an inevitable confrontation it comes because we've done so much budget reduction cutting so far. And I don't really see any room for 3

billion dollars myself. But you were asking whether Demick be coalitions and. And I think that is a possibility despite the very strong bitter at times such a partisan spirit and Congress that there are a few issues where you might be able to get some cooperation and one of them is that ugly word infrastructure. Yeah there are lots of roads and bridges that need to be taken care of and Republicans realize as well is that the Democrats are a few pieces of legislation of that sort might get through. And similarly in a North Carolina legislature that is going to be anxious and see what happens to the pork barrel in a lot of noise about that is that it is indeed one of the things that the Tea Party people have been saying is that they are against earmarking bills whereas the Republicans

who are in power are saying earmarking is something that's been done since time immemorial and we're going to go on doing it. So that's going to be one real area of conflict. What he writing now about the presidency from McKinley to Obama what. Let's see what's behind that idea what's what are you after. Yeah well this was commissioned by the Annenberg Foundation it's going to be published by Oxford University Press. And I'm attempting to determine which presidents shape the executive office actually change the nature of the of the presidency as an institution and and how they did it. Water and one of the big forces how can we put together a narrative of the history of the presidency over a century and a half only instant to read. Thank you dear friend. We got a few minutes left out of this experience and what you've seen. What do you expect to see our country do in

the next five years what's going to happen. What's your vision say say that to us. Well I guess the most immediate response I make because I'm worried I don't like the developments have taken place in recent years particularly the lowering of civility. They say the difficulty that parties have been reaching across the aisle the way Ted Kennedy and Orrin Hatch and others were we were able to do. And while this deadlock is going on the problems are mounting. There are still a few figure in people who have gotten too discouraged to ask for work the unemployment or level is probably up around 17 18 percent. Those ice caps up in the Arctic are continuing to melt with

wood with nobody doing anything about it. And we're in an era of great postponement postponement of being serious about our government about our our our our politics. My natural disposition is to be cheerful optimistic but I'm I'm I'm I'm thinking of the definition that someone once gave of an optimist in the 20th century someone who thinks that the future is uncertain and and maybe that's about the best we can do I don't see how we can project a strong sense of of hope and progress but a realization that there have been bleak times in the past that were simply to pray you for better times. And we hope we'll hope that we're in one of those periods as this substantially impact the role of this country then in this global.

World weary in well one of the remarkable things about this recent election is that there was almost no discussion of foreign affairs. I had a very very unusual. I was in Prague on 9/11 boarded later that day a steamer on the on the Danube and read the Austrian newspapers on my way to Vienna and the lead editorial in an independent paper in Austria it was veers into our American and we're all Americans and the same was said by the leading paper in and in Paris. People laughed when early on in his presidency Obama was given a Nobel Peace Prize. People ask what actually has he done. Well what he's done is change the whole attitude of the rest of the world toward the United States to kind of damage that was done under the Bush administration has been rectified. And we have we are much much

more important player now in the world scene than we were before we took office. Thank you dear friend for coming and sitting down with me one more time you always the great teacher and varied and analytical mind working on the problems of the world and ladies and gentlemen I know you've enjoyed this visit from this distinguished scholar into your living room Izzy to next week then goodnight sponsored in part by walkover a Wells Fargo Company helping North Carolina people realize their financial goals. Since 1879 and through the financial contributions of viewers like you who invite you to join them in supporting you in CTV.