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JUDY WOODRUFF: Good evening. I`m Judy Woodruff.
On the NewsHour tonight: the news of this Wednesday; then, a ground- level look at the U.S. economy from four business writers in different parts of the country; a report from Chicago about public school military academies; pollsters in Iowa and New Hampshire explain what voters are looking for as they weigh their choices for president; and a conversation with Albert Mohler of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary about reading the Bible.
(BREAK)
JUDY WOODRUFF: Shoppers hit the stores on this day after Christmas, with retailers hoping to salvage the season. Several major business groups reported sales so far have failed to meet modest expectations. They said a post-Christmas surge was key.
With that in mind, stores opened earlier than ever today and slashed prices to lure bargain-hunters. Overall, the next week could account for more than 15 percent of all holiday sales.
There were more signs today that the housing slump is far from over. A key index by Standard and Poor`s found home prices in October fell nearly 7 percent. It was the largest drop since 1991.
In New York, Standard and Poor`s analyst David Blitzer said there`s no sign yet the slide has bottomed out.
DAVID BLITZER, Analyst, Standard and Poor`s: Home prices continue to decline across all 20 major metropolitan areas that we tracked. And in the composite of the total of 20 cities, the decline, if anything, has accelerated in the most recent report, with 11 of the 20 cities dropping at a faster rate than they did last month.
JUDY WOODRUFF: In other economic news today, the price of oil hit its highest point in a month. It closed just under $96 a barrel, a gain of 2 percent. Concern over U.S. oil stockpiles was a factor.
And on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained two points to close at 13,551. The Nasdaq rose nearly 11 points to close at 2,724. We`ll have more on the economy right after this news summary.
The presidential campaign cranked up again in Iowa today, after a brief respite for Christmas. Candidates hit the ground and the airwaves just eight days before Democrats and Republicans hold their caucuses. The race on both sides is up for grabs, with early frontrunners now facing stiff challenges.
New Jersey today became the first state to mandate HIV testing for pregnant women and newborns. A new state law requires all pregnant women to be tested for the AIDS virus. It also orders tests for newborns when the mother tests positive or her status is unknown. But the law allows women to opt out of the testing if they wish.
Acting Governor Richard Codey signed the measure today in Newark. He said it can dramatically cut the infection of infants.
ACTING GOV. RICHARD CODEY (D), New Jersey: Newborns are still being exposed, and, worst of all, they`re being infected. And any parent will tell you that one infant infection is one too many. And, unfortunately, New Jersey -- New Jersey -- bears the distinction of having the highest proportion of females among people living with AIDS in the entire country.
JUDY WOODRUFF: The measure takes effect in six months.
President Bush today signed a huge bill to fund the federal government through next September. It totaled $555 billion, including about $70 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. A spokesman said, overall, the spending is at, quote, "responsible levels," despite more than 9,000 earmarks for special projects.
In Iraq, the cabinet there today approved a draft law to pardon thousands of prisoners. It aims to bolster relations between the Shiite and Sunni populations, but it still needs approval by parliament.
Also today, the U.S. military announced a senior leader of al-Qaida in Iraq was killed north of Baghdad last month.
The leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan pledged new cooperation today against Taliban and al-Qaida militants. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai held a summit in Islamabad. They agreed to share intelligence and to tighten border controls.
Karzai said it is time to move beyond past disagreements.
HAMID KARZAI, President, Afghanistan: People in both countries are suffering, suffering a lot. And it is incumbent upon us, the leadership of the two countries, the governments, to find ways to bring peace and stability to each home, each family in both countries, and that is what is the desire of both nations, I`m very confident.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Afghan officials have complained the terror groups are using bases inside Pakistan to stage attacks across the border. The two nations have held summits on the issue before, but got nowhere.
The Afghan government moved today to expel two diplomats from the European Union and the U.N. Authorities accused the pair of harming state security by meeting with Taliban insurgents. The meeting took place in the Musa Qala district in the Helmand province. Taliban fighters controlled this district until recently.
A U.N. spokesman said U.N. officials talk to many people to encourage peace. He denied any intent to deal directly with the Taliban.
Nations around the Indian Ocean marked the third anniversary today of a killer tsunami. More than 200,000 people died on December 26, 2004. Today, hundreds of Indonesians prayed at mass graves.
In Thailand, Buddhist monks held ceremonies for victims and their families. Mourners gathered at a resort beach to lay flowers and to light candles in the sand.
That`s it for the news summary tonight. Now: a regional look at the economy; public school military academies in Chicago; what polls in Iowa and New Hampshire say about voters, as well as candidates; and the relevance of the Bible in the modern world.
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JUDY WOODRUFF: How is the national economic picture looking from Main Street, USA? Jeffrey Brown has that story.
JEFFREY BROWN: As the holiday shopping season reached its climax this week, concerns about the U.S. economy were much on the minds of shoppers, businessmen and policymakers alike.
The key question: Are we headed for a recession?
While retailers held out hopes, early tallies suggested that sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas had probably not been as robust as expected.
Elsewhere, the depths of the housing crisis remain a major uncertainty. Home foreclosures for November were up more than threefold from a year ago. Home prices have been falling in many parts of the country, and new home construction recently plummeted to its lowest level in 16 years.
Energy costs are also being watched, as the Energy Department predicted gas prices will rise to a nationwide average of $3.11 per gallon next year, a 10 percent increase from 2007.
And the dollar`s slide has continued. This year, the dollar fell 9 percent against the euro, making foreign travel and imports more expensive, but helping some American industries export their products.
In the meantime, Wall Street markets are still up for the year, but volatility has been the watchword of the last few months, with single-day declines of 200 or more points becoming routine.
The most recent employment data showed a mixed picture of job losses and gains in different sectors of the economy, while the overall unemployment figure held steady.
For its part, the Federal Reserve has pushed through several interest rate cuts in the hope that that will be enough to keep the economy from tilting further south.
And we take our own snapshot around the country now with four business writers and editors. Michael Armstrong is deputy business editor of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Susan Tompor is a business and financial columnist at the Detroit Free Press. Chris Lester is a columnist and business editor at the Kansas City Star. And Kathy Kristof is a reporter and syndicated personal finance columnist for the Los Angeles Times.
Well, Michael Armstrong, we`ll start in the East tonight. What are the main concerns in your area?
MICHAEL ARMSTRONG, The Philadelphia Inquirer: Well, we have concerns, but I would have to say that Philadelphia is one of those areas where we probably are making out better than most. We kind of have a Goldilocks regional economy in that we never, even when a recession occurs, we never fall too far or boom too high.
If there are concerns, it`s more about what lies ahead. Will the job market slow down? Will businesses stop investing?
JEFFREY BROWN: Are there particular businesses, particular sectors that you`ve got your eye on?
MICHAEL ARMSTRONG: The sectors that we really have our eye on are our major sectors, which tend to be health care and education, higher education. That accounts for a very high percentage of our economy here. And that`s why we tend to be more stable.
Where we seem to be a little more vulnerable would be in the pharmaceutical sector, because there are a lot of challenges in that business. And companies like Merck, Glaxo, and Johnson and Johnson, and Wyeth have very large operations here.
JEFFREY BROWN: Chris Lester in Kansas City, what are the biggest concerns where you are?
CHRIS LESTER, The Kansas City Star: Well, we`re watching the housing market a bit, but we haven`t softened as much as you might see in a lot of the coastal markets at this point.
Actually, the general tenor of my comments would echo Michael`s. We`re coming through OK. We`re not a boom economy; we`re not a bust economy.
And the forecast going into next year is that the regional economy here in Kansas City will outpace that of the nation as a whole. So we`re making out OK right now.
And, frankly, a real source of strength for us has been the agricultural economy and some exposure to the energy economy here in Kansas City and in the region. You know, a lot of farmers are making good money for the first time in 20, 30 years.
JEFFREY BROWN: All right, we`ll come back to that. Susan Tompor, we were asking about whether the U.S. economy might be going into recession. I guess in Michigan you`ve beaten the rest of the country there?
SUSAN TOMPOR, The Detroit Free Press: Yes, we definitely have. Goldilocks left long ago with that Goldilocks economy; this is the big bad wolf.
And the big bad wolf is here in Michigan with foreclosures, falling home prices, 11 percent, one of the top three areas in falling home prices, job losses, buyouts in the auto industry, thousands of people really, really worried about their economic future in 2008.
JEFFREY BROWN: And in what ways does that show itself in terms of, oh, consumer confidence or what you`re seeing this retail season?
SUSAN TOMPOR: Well, we`re seeing a lot of discounting. The retailers really had to fight for their money this holiday season.
I was at the mall this morning, no trouble getting a parking spot. That wasn`t true all holiday season, of course, but the retailers were marking down left and right, couponing, doing whatever they could to really get this thing going.
One benefit we have had here in Michigan is we are near Windsor, a Canadian border in Detroit, so we have a lot of Canadian shoppers taking advantage of the currency change. So we do have some benefit from that. And the retailers have been selling to the Canadian consumer. But it is...
JEFFREY BROWN: Kathy Kristof -- I`m sorry, go ahead.
SUSAN TOMPOR: But it is a very tough environment here. People are very worried. They`re very worried about if they`ll still be working. How will they make their home payments, adjustable rate mortgages? It`s a time of great concern here in Michigan.
JEFFREY BROWN: All right. Well, Kathy Kristof, I know it`s not that bad in Southern California, but tell us first what the concerns are out there.
KATHY KRISTOF, The Los Angeles Times: Finance and real estate are the big concerns. We also have the big writers strike, which can really decimate Hollywood, and that`s a big industry here.
But we have relative strength in oil, and small business, and technology, so we`ve got a real mixed bag in L.A.
JEFFREY BROWN: Tell us -- we`ve heard a lot about the volatility on Wall Street. Do you see much of that affecting Main Street? We`ve also heard about the subprime mess, you know, hitting a lot of big banks. How much of that trickles down to Main Street, to real people?
KATHY KRISTOF: You know, the funny thing is we all want to act like Wall Street has got some, you know, finger on the pulse of Main Street, but it doesn`t. Wall Street is completely flummoxed by the subprime crisis. They`re petrified, and they should be.
Main Street is not. Main Street is more affected by jobs. And right now, the unemployment rate is pretty stable. People are still out in the malls and shopping.
And consumer spending accounts for so much of economic growth that we`re not seeing a big pullback. We`re seeing a moderate, you know, like slowing down of spending, but really not seeing a lot of death and destruction on Main Street.
JEFFREY BROWN: People are in the malls. So can you -- is there an assessment out there yet of the Christmas holiday retail season?
KATHY KRISTOF: You know, it`s never as good as the retailers want it to be, right? But I don`t think it was altogether bad.
JEFFREY BROWN: Michael Armstrong, do you see any disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, in terms of economic news and how it hits people in their pocketbook or in their homes?
MICHAEL ARMSTRONG: It`s not so much a disconnect, I think. I think a lot of people on Main Street, as you walk around and talk to them, are concerned about the volatility that they`re hearing about on Wall Street, but they`re not -- we don`t really have that big of an exposure as just people, as citizens, to Wall Street, except in maybe our 401(k) plans.
It`s more, my job, how is it going? Am I seeing people being laid off? Is my company thinking about not opening an office that they`ve been talking about? That`s where we get concerned.
JEFFREY BROWN: And that psychology, of course, we`ve heard so long, for a long time, about how consumers are the ones driving the economy. So do you still see that where you are, just in terms of this holiday shopping season? What did you see?
MICHAEL ARMSTRONG: What we`ve seen is, as I think Susan and Kathy have said, that when you go to the mall you can easily get a parking space. Maybe a lot people were out on the Internet clicking away and buying online, but you could certainly get into a mall very easily this year. You may not have been able to find a check-out clerk, but you could buy your Christmas stuff.
JEFFREY BROWN: Susan Tompor, to go back to that Wall Street and Main Street mix, you have a company like Chrysler that`s gone private. Does the credit crunch hit where you are in a particular way?
SUSAN TOMPOR: I think it does hit where we are in a particular way, with Chrysler being taken over by a private equity firm that was spun off by Daimler-Chrysler earlier this year. We`re looking at 25,000 job cuts at Chrysler, very serious. That`s a third of the workforce now, because of this credit crunch situation.
You also had the higher oil prices, maybe, that we didn`t mention earlier here in Michigan. How is that going to affect the auto industry?
But when you have a private equity firm that`s done a lot of borrowing, does, you know, possibly cutting more, when the auto industry is going to be weakening, that`s scary stuff here. And that`s where the credit crunch translates indirectly into pocketbooks and paychecks here in Michigan.
JEFFREY BROWN: Chris Lester, you started to tell us about the agriculture economy there. Tell us a little bit more about why it, in particular, seems to be doing well.
CHRIS LESTER: Well, part of it`s the ethanol bubble, if you want to use that phrase. Corn prices are going at $4 a bushel. Wheat, soybeans are trading at $10 a bushel. Those are prices you haven`t even in eons, if ever, so that`s really helped out farm income.
We`ve seen a lot increasing values of farmland. They`re trading at extremely high prices right at the moment. There`s a lot of people in this part of the country that are making a pretty good living and, as I said, for the first time in years and years and years.
Another thing that`s interesting to point out, what we`re having are rolling sector recessions. And you can say the housing market is in recession. And you can say the automobile sector is in recession. Here in Kansas City, we got extremely fortunate, as GM and Ford restructured over the last year or two. We have two plants here in town.
And as the companies shall rank and reallocated work and whatnot, more work has come into the two local plants here in Kansas City. So that`s been an enormously fortunate turn of events here in Kansas City that`s helped us kind of ride through this in relatively good shape. So those are the things that are going on here.
JEFFREY BROWN: And that weak dollar that I talked about in the introduction, I suppose you`re in an area where that can help some individuals?
CHRIS LESTER: Absolutely. Absolutely. It does help. It`s not necessarily healthy in the long term for the dollar to keep getting weaker, but in the short term, at least, if you`re an exporter, you`re going to do well. You`re more competitive overseas.
JEFFREY BROWN: Kathy Kristof, explain more about that dollar, its upsides and downsides, and how it affects people?
KATHY KRISTOF: Well, for us, we`re a major trade center, so we definitely see some of the benefits of increased international trade. It`s easier for us now to sell our goods overseas.
It`s a little bit harder for manufacturers overseas to sell their goods over here, because everything is comparatively more expensive. But generally speaking, when everything comes through the L.A. port, we have people working.
So for our little segment of economy, that`s helpful, because, you know, in our little segment of the economy, as you were talking about with the rolling recessions, we definitely have a rolling recession in real estate. And that has historically been very important here. And so it`s these other little enclaves that are providing points of light that are keeping us quite afloat.
JEFFREY BROWN: So just staying with you, as you look forward to 2008 -- I don`t want to make you look into the crystal ball, I guess -- but, well, take a peek for us. I mean, what exactly do you look at? Is there a particular industry, company, even person you know that you use to help you look ahead and see what might happen?
KATHY KRISTOF: Well, you know what? I really think so much depends on jobs. I won`t try and prognosticate, because the Psychic Network went bankrupt and they didn`t predict it, and I always thought that that was telling me that I shouldn`t try and tell you what was going to happen.
But I think that the jobs number is the one that really is pivotal to everybody, because that is what determines whether you have the money to keep afloat. And as long as that`s relatively stable, I think there are a lot of signs of strength.
But, you know, certain segments of the economy are so weak that I think it`s made everybody a little bit nervous. And so what the tipping point is just going to be a little bit more on edge right now. You know, you see that in Wall Street, with the swings up and swings down, you know, 200, 300 points.
Well, that`s a sign of how nervous everybody is, and that`s because there are so many segments of the economy that are really doing poorly. And there`s concern that those segments could push everything else off the cliff.
And, obviously, if that happens, like I said, I think where we`ll see it and where it will really start to hurt is if it starts causing companies to lay people off, because if people are laid off, then they don`t make their mortgage payments. There`s more foreclosures. And nobody can spend. It`s like a rock rolling downhill.
JEFFREY BROWN: Michael Armstrong, same thing to you, as a last question. Where do you look to decide or to try to forecast ahead?
MICHAEL ARMSTRONG: We try not to depend on one industry, but we do have a very large credit card industry in northern Delaware, where -- it used to be MBNA and First USA were very large credit card companies taken over by JPMorgan.
They are experiencing higher default rates. And so we have a lot of people who work in this area who will be nervous if that trend continues, as well as the home mortgage business. If banks and all kinds of lenders stop lending money, all of us are going to start feeling it, whether we have good credit or bad credit.
JEFFREY BROWN: And, Susan Tompor, any silver linings there in Michigan?
SUSAN TOMPOR: I`d like to say there are. You know, we do have a little bit of growth here with engineering and that sort of thing. But I fear that many people here are looking at Michigan as perhaps the stepchild that, you know, we can forget about in the U.S. economy, that maybe here the things in Michigan are isolated.
And my concern is that, of course, that may not be true at all in 2008, that this may be the beginning, this might be the epicenter here in Michigan of what could be a national recession. You don`t have the Fed cutting rates with the intensity that they have been because they`re not worried about a U.S. recession. They`re not doing it to help Michigan.
JEFFREY BROWN: And a brief final word from...
SUSAN TOMPOR: They`re doing it...
JEFFREY BROWN: I`m sorry. I wanted to get a brief final word from Chris Lester. Do you see that rolling recession from Detroit hitting the rest of the country, especially where you are?
CHRIS LESTER: It`s possible, and I think Kathy really nailed it. You`ve got to watch the jobs. If the unemployment rate were to spike a point in a very short period of time, we could tip into a recession.
So I think Kathy`s absolutely correct. That`s the data point that will ultimately be the most important.
You know, everybody is always talking about recession. We`re always historically -- we`re always headed for a recession. It`s just a question of when we have them. And I think the more you talk about it, the more likely we`ll have one, because it`s mass psychology.
There`s an old joke that, you know, 100 of the last 10 recessions were predicted, and we just have to watch that, as well, because there`s a lot of mass psychology involved.
JEFFREY BROWN: OK. Four views from around the country, thank you all very much.
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JUDY WOODRUFF: Now, using public school military academies to teach leadership and boost test scores in low-income urban neighborhoods. NewsHour correspondent Elizabeth Brackett of WTTW-Chicago has our report.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT, NewsHour Correspondent: The cadets at the Marine Military Academy in Chicago listen up as commands are given. One hundred and twenty eight students attend the new school, the fifth in the Chicago public school system to adopt a military model.
The program is led by Retired Lieutenant Colonel Rick Mills.
RICK MILLS, Chicago Public Schools: The purpose of the military academy programs is to offer our cadets and parents an educational choice among many choices in Chicago public schools and to provide an educational experience that has a college prep curriculum, combined with a military curriculum.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Over 10,000 Chicago high school students now wear a military uniform to class.
The program began in 1999, when the Chicago Military Academy opened in conjunction with the Army Junior ROTC. It was the first military model public school in the nation.
That was followed by two more Army military academies, then the Rickover Naval Academy. In addition, four other public schools have Army military academies within them. Plus, there are three dozen traditional Junior ROTC high school programs and 20 middle school programs.
Marine Academy principal and former Army officer Paul Stroh says the schools have a clear mission.
PAUL STROH, Marine Military Academy: We`re trying to produce a student that is prepared for post-secondary education and that eventually will become a leader in their community, on the city or the state or even at the national level.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Parents and students at the Marine Military Academy thought the school would give them a leg up.
PATRICK NGUYEN, Marine Military Academy Parent: I think it`s a great opportunity for her to learn things that you don`t learn in a regular school, such as leadership and citizenship. You get to do things such as lead a class. You get to do some of the other things that aren`t really specifically military-based, but things that you can apply in your life afterwards.
JESSIKA NGUYEN, Marine Military Academy: I really like that you have a chance to be a leader. And they said that every -- by the time you graduate, every student will have the chance to take a leadership position. And I thought that was really interesting.
JOHNNY RODRIGUEZ, Marine Military Academy Parent: Basically the structure of discipline, if they are going to be disciplined in the manner of the military school.
ROBERTO RODRIGUEZ, Marine Military Academy: I like the physical training, and I like that we could become leaders and we know every student. No bullies, none of that, so it`s real cool.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Minorities make up 92 percent of the cadet population. Only 4 percent are white, compared to 8 percent of the general Chicago public schools population.
There are no public school military academies in Chicago`s suburbs. That disturbs Pauline Lipman, a professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago`s College of Education.
PAULINE LIPMAN, University of Illinois at Chicago: When we talk about how these are good schools for these kids, one of the things we want to think about is, why are they not in upper-middle-class white communities? Why are they good schools for low-income African-American and Latino students and not good schools for affluent white kids?
And are we saying that those students need a different kind of discipline, a different kind of regulation, a different kind of option? And I think that`s a form of racial discrimination, and that`s really concerning to me.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: The whole military nature of the academies attracted angry protesters when Rickover Naval Academy opened in 2005.
CHRIS INSERRA: Our children should not be in school in high school to learn about war. They should learn about the effects of war; they should not learn to be recruited for war.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: And as the war in Iraq heads toward a fifth year and the antiwar protests continue, some like Darlene Gramigna of the American Friends Service Committee are concerned over what they call the militarization of the school system.
DARLENE GRAMIGNA, American Friends Service Committee: Chicago has -- well, in 2009, will have six of the 17 military academies in the country. So we consider ourselves the most military school system in the country. And the question is, why?
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Both Gramigna and Lipman thinks the answer is the military wants to recruit the students.
PAULINE LIPMAN: I know that the schools say that they are not about recruiting students, but in fact there`s a lot of evidence to the contrary.
I think it would be really naive to think that the military would, in fact, be expanding these schools and these programs and pouring millions of dollars into the schools at a time when they actually are having a recruitment crisis, if the schools were not about recruiting students.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: All students attending the military academies are required to take one four-year course pertaining to the military. The Junior ROTC curriculum includes military history, military protocol, civics and physical fitness.
INSTRUCTOR: When was the last time you shined your shoes?
STUDENT: Yesterday. No, day before yesterday, sir.
INSTRUCTOR: Shoes.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Cadets also undergo personnel inspections...
INSTRUCTOR: Hair cut.
INSTRUCTOR: About face! Forward march!
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: ... and they spend many after school hours practicing for the drill team. But despite the military trappings, those involved with the military academies insist recruitment is not part of the program.
RICK MILLS: This program isn`t about recruiting. This program`s not about putting young men and women in uniform when they graduate. It`s about putting them in colleges or universities or furthering their education.
That`s really the emphasis of this, and I think it`s a quantum leap to make that point and tie it to national policy that`s going on in Iraq and Afghanistan. That`s just not the intent of the program.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: None of the cadets at the Rickover Naval Academy we talked with said they felt any pressure to join the military.
THANIA RIVAS, Rickover Military Academy: They don`t put pressure on you. Our main purpose is for us to go to college.
And, like we said, it`s a college preparatory, so it`s not like we`re telling people to come here and you`re going to join the Navy after you leave high school. No, your first priority is to go to college. Then, if you think about going into the Navy, then you can, but it`s always a choice.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Though they did say many of their friends thought their decision to go to a military academy was weird.
MASTEN MEISELS, Rickover Military Academy: ... and because I came here, they wrote, like, nasty letters in my autograph book, such as, "Don`t get shot" and -- among other things. But they really didn`t understand about the school.
And I had been in the school already. I was so interested in, like, all the things that the school was connected with, and I really didn`t care what they thought of it, because I knew that the school was the right school for me.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: Masten Meisels` father says initially he did have some questions about the possibility of recruiting.
MARK MEISELS, Rickover Military Academy: I mean, do they recruit? Is that what this is really about? That was an issue. And we`re involved. So I can assure you that they don`t recruit and that that is not a part of what goes on here.
They`re about living by this military code, by this Naval code, and that`s very compatible with what I want my kids to know and to live by.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: The Chicago public schools Junior ROTC Web site shows that only 4 percent of the military academies` 2007 year graduates went into the military; 78 percent went onto college.
As for how the schools are doing academically, supporters say, as a whole, the academies show higher attendance and graduation rates and lower drop-out rates than the rest of the system.
But some of the statistics are not as positive. At the Chicago Military Academy, only 66 percent of the 2005 graduates went on to college, and the average ACT score was well below the state average.
At the Phoenix Military Academy on the near west side of the city, only 11 percent of the students met state standards, with just 56 percent of the freshmen on track to graduate.
PAULINE LIPMAN: Given all the additional resources that the military schools have, we would have -- and smaller classes, and the small-school model, and all the things that you are mentioning, we would certainly have expected something far better than what we see there.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: But Phoenix Principal Ferdinand Wipachit says that his school`s scores have increased every year since the academy replaced the underperforming Orr High School. And while scores are up, Wipachit says violence is down.
FERDINAND WIPACHIT, Phoenix Military Academy: I could see the difference between -- in terms of violence has decreased dramatically. For example, you have this school year, for the past 12 weeks, only one incident, and that is a very significant difference here compared to the violence at the Orr unit, where you have almost an incident every period or every other period.
ELIZABETH BRACKETT: The demand continues to grow for the military academies. Last year, there were 7,500 applicants for 700 freshmen seats. As a result, a new Air Force military academy has been approved to open in 2009.
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JUDY WOODRUFF: Next, what voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say they`re looking for in a presidential candidate. With the first votes for the party nominations to be cast in just eight days, we`re joined by Andy Smith. He`s professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the university`s survey center. And Ann Selzer, who directs the Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register newspaper.
Good to see both of you. Thank you. The polls show that pretty much these races are close in both of these first states, the frontrunners bunched up at the top.
Ann Selzer, to you in Iowa, what percentage of the voters there would you say have absolutely made up their minds at this point about whom they`re voting for?
ANN SELZER, Des Moines Register: Well, the races on both sides have been very slippery and the lead changing sort of every time we go into the field and take a poll.
When we really drill down into our data and say, "Well, what do we know for certain?" we know it`s no more than one-in-three who say they are definitely going to the caucuses, they have a first choice, and their mind is made up, they will not change and support another candidate.
And that doesn`t seem like a lot, but this is the time in these last few days that people will be locking in.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So two-thirds potentially of likely caucus voters aren`t sure yet?
ANN SELZER: Well, there are many things that sort of keep them taking a look. I mean, I think they`re really trying to now figure out who is going to be the right person.
On the Democratic side, they just don`t want to make a mistake. They want to be sure that the person that they support can win the nomination, and can win the presidency, and then will be successful as a president.
And as you hear them walk through their logic, it`s almost a little bit like Groundhog Day. You keep hearing people say the same thing over and over, but they come to different conclusions. There are people who say, "For that reason, I support Hillary Clinton," or they will say, "For that reason, I cannot support Hillary Clinton."
And the Republicans, it`s a little bit different. It`s really finding a candidate they can live with and feel comfortable with. They have concerns about every one of them, and it`s trying to just figure out who to lock in with and take to caucus night.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, let me turn to New Hampshire and ask Andy Smith, what percentage of voters there have made up their minds?
ANDY SMITH, University of New Hampshire: We`re seeing a very similar thing here in New Hampshire that only about a third of the voters on either the Republican side or the Democratic side have absolutely made up their mind about who they`re going to vote for.
And that fits in what we`ve seen in the past. According to exit polls both in 2000 and 2004, about half of the voters say they make up their minds in the last week. More than a quarter say they make up their mind in the last couple days before the election. So we`re in sort of a typical environment here.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So not so different from in the past?
ANDY SMITH: No, not different at all. And I think that we`re looking for an electable candidate, as well.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And what about that? Do you see differences? We just heard Ann Selzer in Iowa say Democrats seem to be looking for one thing. They don`t want to make a mistake. They want to pick somebody who can go on and win the presidency.
Republicans, she said -- and I think I`m quoting here -- they`re looking for a candidate they can live with. Are you seeing anything like that in New Hampshire?
ANDY SMITH: Well, I think on both the Republican and Democratic side they`re looking for candidates who can win in November.
Here I think it`s very important to point out that the Republican electorate in New Hampshire is quite different than the Republican electorate in Iowa, much more moderate, much more socially moderate. And I think they`re looking for a winner, too. They`re not so much concerned about a candidate they can live with, because by and large they can live with any of the candidates.
On the Democratic side, I think they definitely want a winner. And I think there are some very specific things that they`re looking and trying to judge between Clinton and Obama. Edwards is not doing so well here. They like Clinton`s experience, but they like the freshness and the seeming honesty that Obama brings to the race.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Ann Selzer, when you say among the Democrats they don`t want to make a mistake, what exactly are you saying they`re looking for, I mean, somebody who can win in November, but what do you mean?
ANN SELZER: Well, I think this really speaks to the concerns people have about both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. On the one hand with Hillary Clinton, they do not want to re-fight the battles that sort of we were mired down with during Bill Clinton`s presidency.
So people are concerned when they think about her being elected, "This is the candidate the Republicans seem to want. We know that they will come after her." And they just kind of are saying, "I don`t want to have a president that can`t be effective because she`s under fire."
Of course, there are people who say, "Any president is going to be under fire, so she`s the one that`s been there before and knows the best how to deal with it."
With Obama, they want to be sure that he doesn`t sort of have to do on-the-job training in order to be up to speed and to be effective as a president. So they`re trying to weigh that out.
But our last poll showed just a 7-point difference in terms of ability to make effective change, with Hillary Clinton leading that -- I`m sorry, with Barack Obama leading that over Hillary Clinton. And the difference, in terms of experience, Senator Clinton leads by 34 percentage points on that.
So you can imagine that, in these final days, that`s what she`s going to be touting, that that`s going to trump ability to make change.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And Andy Smith in New Hampshire, to the extent electability is important to voters, what does that mean in New Hampshire?
ANDY SMITH: Well, it means that they want somebody who can win in November, somebody that they feel is both competent and doesn`t have the background that`s going to hurt them in November. I think we`re seeing that both on the Republican and the Democratic side.
Recently, Mitt Romney has been taking some shots here as seen as a candidate who doesn`t necessarily have a core reason for running, and he`s seen as vulnerable on that.
We see both Clinton and Obama have some weaknesses. Ann mentioned Clinton`s advantage on experience. We`re seeing here with the lead of 50 percent to 6 percent over Obama as the most experienced candidate.
At the same time, we`re seeing Clinton have some real problems with honesty. We`re seeing that Obama is leading her 29 percent to 16 percent as the most trustworthy candidate in the race.
So all of these candidates bring in some strengths and weaknesses that they know the other side is going to use against them in November. And they`re trying to judge which one of these has the best package of good strengths and weaknesses that aren`t so troubling.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Ann Selzer, in Iowa, how much difference do issues matter in this, I mean, what we classically define as issues?
ANN SELZER: Well, issues have certainly been important in sort of figuring out the field, and getting a lay of the land, and understanding who it is that most identifies with the issues that you`re up to.
But I`m really hearing in this election a lot less insistence on certain issues for the candidate in order to win the vote. I was chatting with a young woman who is religiously conservative. In the past, she said all it took was a pro-life stance and an anti-gay marriage stance, and that`s really all the thinking she needed to do.
And this year, it sort of struck her: These things have really nothing to do with running the country. And so those issues have really sort of, I think, played a little bit less, as people are really thinking about the complex world that the next president will inherit.
JUDY WOODRUFF: To you, Andy Smith in New Hampshire, how much weight are voters giving to race and to gender? And I`m specifically thinking of whether that`s going to be a factor as people consider Clinton and Obama.
ANDY SMITH: Race, I don`t think it`s that big of an issue here in New Hampshire. We`ve got a very liberal Democratic electorate here. Race hasn`t really shown up as a major factor in the race so far. I imagine for some small segment of voters it will be a concern.
We are seeing some interesting things with gender. Male voters are much more strongly supportive of Barack Obama than they are of Hillary Clinton.
And in part, that`s the Clinton campaign. They`re really trying to attract women voters, particularly working women, to their campaign and, to a certain extent, it`s paying off. At the same time, it seems to be alienating some of the male voters.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Ann Selzer, I guess picking up on that, what do you not know about what the voters are thinking? Are there things they don`t share with pollsters?
ANN SELZER: Well, on the Democratic side, please realize that they`re going to stand up in their caucus and announce their vote intention. So we don`t really have the difference between what you say in public and what you`re going to do in the privacy of your voting booth. That will be a very public announcement of your vote.
And my assessment is that, if Obama does not win in Iowa, it won`t be because of race. It will be a failure of getting these first-time, young caucusgoers that he has really lined up behind him, a failure to get them to show up if he doesn`t win.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And, Andy Smith, in terms of what you`d like to know from these voters that you can`t pick out of the information they give you?
ANDY SMITH: The biggest problem is trying to figure out what are the factors that really determine who they`re going to vote for. We like to think of kind of the political science model or the civics class model, that voters weigh issues and try to align their issues with the positions of the various candidates.
But as political scientists, we know that`s just not true. However, it`s difficult to tell -- to get a voter to tell us that, "No, it`s the way this person speaks," or, "I like the way they look," or, "It`s the way they carry themselves in public."
We know those things are important, but it`s very difficult for us to actually make a reasonable assessment about what the impact of those factors are in a race.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Very quick last question, Ann Selzer. Where are people getting most of their information? Is it TV ads? Is it seeing the candidates in person, reading about them in newspaper?
ANDY SMITH: Well, I think half of caucusgoers have met at least one candidate in person, so they certainly have the luxury of having that. Their demographics: They`re older; they`re affluent; they`re well- educated. Those are good for newspaper readers.
So I`m sure that they`re taking in a lot of information there. They`re also good demographics for public television. I think they`re just going after everything that will help them make a decision.
JUDY WOODRUFF: All right. Well, we thank both of you, Ann Selzer in Iowa, Andy Smith in New Hampshire. We appreciate it.
And our coverage of Vote 2008 continues online. You may use our interactive map to find reports from the NewsHour, from NPR, and local stations in Iowa, New Hampshire, and elsewhere around the country. Visit us at PBS.org.
(BREAK)
JUDY WOODRUFF: Finally tonight, Ray Suarez has the second of two holiday conversations about the relevance and role of the Bible in modern- day society.
RAY SUAREZ: Last night, we heard from the Reverend Peter Gomes of the Memorial Church at Harvard University.
Tonight, we get a different view about reading the Bible in the 21st century. It comes from Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary. His latest book is called "Culture Shift: Engaging Current Issues with Timeless Truth."
And, Dr. Mohler, it`s Christmas week. The holiday fills churches, but it`s also a public holiday, a major commercial event in the calendar. What is it that American society at large is celebrating this week?
ALBERT MOHLER, President, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary: Well, I guess when you talk about society at large, that may be difficult to answer, other than the obvious historical reference for Christmas is the birth of Christ.
But we as Christians realize there are many Americans who are not celebrating a personal knowledge of Jesus Christ, perhaps not even celebrating the fact that he was born, who are nonetheless at this time of the year gathering the family.
But it certainly these days mixed up with a great deal of consumerism and all the cultural accessories of the holidays, so I guess it really does vary a great deal from home to home. But as for our house, we`re celebrating the birth of Christ.
RAY SUAREZ: You talk about God`s square truth. And in your new book, you condemn relativism. But was Jesus` message so cut and dried? Didn`t he often embrace ambiguity in the way he taught, in the way he talked about the poor being rich and the rich being poor?
ALBERT MOHLER: Well, Ray, I appreciate that. I don`t think ambiguity is the best word there. He often did speak in terms of aphorisms, and parables, and it certainly takes a great deal of responsible and intellectual work to try sometimes to know exactly how to apply the teachings of Jesus to a concrete situation.
But in the most important things, Jesus of course spoke very, very clearly, very straightforwardly concerning himself, his identity, his purpose, concerning human sin and the fact that he had come to save sinners of his death on the cross.
And so, on all those things, he speaks very, very specifically, very straightforwardly.
I will acknowledge that when it comes to many issues of public policy, taking the words of Jesus on economics, on justice, these require a great deal of thought, but nonetheless I don`t think Jesus was intending to be ambiguous. I think he was intending for his disciples to have to wrestle with some of these issues in a responsible way.
RAY SUAREZ: Last night on our program, the Reverend Gomes called for a Jesus who was less comforting, more radical, who spent a disproportionate amount of time with people on the fringes. Do you agree there?
ALBERT MOHLER: No doubt about it. As a matter of fact, Dr. Gomes and I may disagree on many things, but there`s no doubt that when you read the gospels Jesus spent a great deal of time with the people that others would have forgotten, people that others would have crossed the street to avoid.
Jesus spent a great deal of time -- he was asked about this, in fact, confronted by the religious establishment of his day. And his response was that the sick do not need a doctor, that he had come to seek and to save the lost. And so, on that point, I would have to emphatically agree.
RAY SUAREZ: In your book, you talk about preaching with the culture in view. How do you talk about the Bible to a modern world where only a minority of people worldwide are Christians?
ALBERT MOHLER: Well, when I speak of applying the Bible, first of all, I`m speaking to Christians who feel an obligation to the Bible as the word of God, who understand that this is how God has spoken to us. The one true and living God has informed us concerning himself and all things needful for our lives in the word of God in the Bible.
And so I assume, first of all, that this Bible, which itself declares itself to be living and active, not a dead word but a living word, I believe that it is the preacher`s responsibility, first of all, to give the church this word, to inform Christians of this word, to teach and to preach this word.
I think we do have a public responsibility -- and that`s why I write and speak in public. That`s why I speak in the media and elsewhere. It`s in order to say: This is a word not only for Christians -- Christians are those who understand that this word is our obligation, it`s God`s word, God`s grace to us that we would know him -- but it also is a message for all people.
RAY SUAREZ: So there is a relevancy, you`re suggesting, to people of all faiths, of no faith, of a modern world that sometimes is struggling for answers?
ALBERT MOHLER: Well, I believe that the Bible is the word that leads us to the gospel that saves. And, Ray, I believe it`s the only gospel that saves.
I believe that the word all human beings need to hear is that they are sinners and they are desperately in need of a savior. And that savior is Jesus Christ.
And I believe that the Bible is the only book, the only revelation that is going to get persons to the saving knowledge of our lord, Jesus Christ.
The apostle Paul said that faith comes by hearing and hearing by the word of Christ. We find that in the Bible, and that`s why the Bible is so central to the lives of Christians and so central to our communication and witness of the gospel to other peoples, as well.
RAY SUAREZ: In your new book, "Culture Shift," you try to sort out for yourself and for others just how a Christian takes his or her profession of faith into the public square and into the political arena. That`s a question of some controversy at the moment.
ALBERT MOHLER: Well, it is, and it probably always has been, Ray. As you know, the intersection between the Christian faith and the issues of political life can often be rather combustible, because when you have the collision of worldviews, especially Christianity in a secular worldview, but in times past it could be many other conflicts of worldviews at different times, Christianity and Islam, these are always going to be issues of controversy.
What I`m calling for is for Christians to apply the word of God in a responsible way, in a thoughtful way to the actual, real-life issues confronted in our culture.
RAY SUAREZ: So where does that leave a Christian person who thinks that it`s an uphill climb in a secular public sphere, in a politics that, for instance, treasures this idea that we don`t have an avowedly religious political system?
ALBERT MOHLER: Well, we have an avowedly religious American people. And you can look at all kinds of profiles describing exactly what that looks like. And so if you have a people who by and large believe in God, that`s going to be reflected in their political engagement, in their consumer life, in every aspect of their lives.
We do have a constitutional prohibition about an establishment of religion. I have no quarrel with that; I think it was a part of the constitutional genius of this country.
But it comes, of course, in the First Amendment also with the fact that there shall be no restraint upon the religious exercise, the free exercise clause concerning religious liberty in this country.
And so you look at that. And politics is necessarily going to have some impact by a people, the very people of the country, in a democratic republic. So those people are going to come to those issues with everything that they are, and everything that they think, and everything that they believe.
I want to make sure that Christians are assisted in connecting the dots to make sure that there are Christians wherever we show up, whether it be in the voting booth, in the marketplace, or anywhere else.
RAY SUAREZ: But what about the means of persuasion? Yes, it gets you to the voting booth; yes, it gets you to debate the essential issues of the day. But can you convince others who don`t share that worldview that that`s a reason why they should buy one Christian`s point of view?
ALBERT MOHLER: Well, I really wouldn`t expect that anyone would buy my point of view simply because I hold to it or because I put the label of Christian on it. They should test it.
And I would say that, first of all, we have a responsibility in the public square as Christians to make very clear about our argumentation, to make very clear about our motivations, to be very clear about how we understand these policy proposals, our positions and convictions, to be under-girded by, for instance, the kind of rationale you would find for other policies.
And so I don`t think Christians who are arguing from a biblical perspective have anything to fear there. In the great marketplace of ideas, everyone has an agenda; everyone has a worldview. And I think an honest discussion of how these things are sorted out can only be healthy.
And I believe that Christians can and should be persuasive concerning our convictions in the public square. And in a democratic process, if we`re not persuasive, then we simply will not be able to see these convictions prevail.
But I hope that Christians will be persuasive, and persuasive not just because we want to win an argument, but because we believe this is for the good of all people, compelled by love of God and love of neighbor, these are what we believe will be the convictions that will lead to human health and happiness.
RAY SUAREZ: Albert Mohler, thanks for joining us, and merry Christmas.
ALBERT MOHLER: Merry Christmas to you, Ray. It`s always good to be with you.
(BREAK)
JUDY WOODRUFF: Again, the major developments of the day.
Shoppers hit the stores on this day after Christmas, with retailers hoping to salvage the season.
The presidential campaign resumed in earnest, with just eight days to go until the Iowa caucuses.
And New Jersey became the first state to mandate HIV testing for pregnant women and newborns.
We`ll see you online and again here tomorrow evening. I`m Judy Woodruff. Thank you, and good night.
Series
The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer
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NewsHour Productions
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NewsHour Productions (Washington, District of Columbia)
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cpb-aacip/507-2b8v980911
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Episode Description
Jeffrey Brown speaks with business writers from around the country to get a picture of the nation's economy as seen from main street America. A report on public schools modeled after military academies in an effort to boost test scores in low income urban neighborhoods by NewsHour Correspondent Elizabeth Brackett. What are the issues driving voters to the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire? To find out, Judy Woodruff speaks with pollsters. Ray Suarez speaks with Albert Mohler. The guests this episode are Michael Armstrong, Susan Tompor, Chris Lester, Kathy Kristof, Andy Smith, Ann Selzer, Albert Mohler. Byline: Jeffrey Brown, Elizabeth Brackett, Judy Woodruff, Ray Suarez
Date
2007-12-26
Asset type
Episode
Topics
Economics
Education
Women
Holiday
Energy
Health
Religion
Parenting
Military Forces and Armaments
Politics and Government
Rights
Copyright NewsHour Productions, LLC. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode)
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01:07:44
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Producing Organization: NewsHour Productions
AAPB Contributor Holdings
NewsHour Productions
Identifier: 9028 (Show Code)
Format: Betacam
Generation: Master
Duration: 1:00:00;00
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Chicago: “The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer,” 2007-12-26, NewsHour Productions, American Archive of Public Broadcasting (GBH and the Library of Congress), Boston, MA and Washington, DC, accessed March 28, 2024, http://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-507-2b8v980911.
MLA: “The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.” 2007-12-26. NewsHour Productions, American Archive of Public Broadcasting (GBH and the Library of Congress), Boston, MA and Washington, DC. Web. March 28, 2024. <http://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-507-2b8v980911>.
APA: The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer. Boston, MA: NewsHour Productions, American Archive of Public Broadcasting (GBH and the Library of Congress), Boston, MA and Washington, DC. Retrieved from http://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-507-2b8v980911