U.S. foreign policy: Demands of the next; Within the Communist World

Oregon educational broadcasting in cooperation with the Foreign Policy Association presents United States foreign policy demands of the next decade. With. The. World. On the occasion of its 50th anniversary. The Foreign Policy Association of the United States organized a traveling foreign policy conference. This is the second of a series of seven programs developed from that conference based on the theme demands of the next decade. These programs are designed to stimulate the thinking of an informed American public about some of the issues to be faced by the nation during the coming decade. Our guests on these seven programs may be

considered among the most distinguished group of foreign policy experts ever assembled for such a task. Today's program is subtitled within the Communist world. Future programs will consider such topics as the world economy. Projections for Asia projections Africa and projections Latin America. Philip Mosley is our guest for today's topic within the Communist world. Dr. Mosley is director of the European Institute at Columbia University as well as professor of international relations and associate dean of the faculty of International Affairs in charge of research at Columbia University. During World War Two He was an officer for the US Department of State in charge of intensive planning for the post-war settlements. He took an active part in negotiations with Russia

Britain and France. Dr Mosley has written and published extensively on Russian and Balkan history. Internal and foreign policies out the Soviet Union and United States foreign policy. Following Dr. Mosley's prepared address he will respond to questions. Dr. Philip Mosley within the Communist world. And there are times which is the second. And also it is easier specially. One of the assertions

to have they made about the evolution of the Soviet Union says in 1953 when Stalin died just 13 years ago this week or since the raid these dows ations visions with Khrushchev characters are it was his role. Libertad hours and the speech was that he has never been published in the Soviet Union. Many things have been changing. They are interesting they are important but much to what has been read out of them. It seems to me and that has been one of our problems the Soviet is developing a. Rapid pace again after about five years of being some of the Darwinist at least having a lower rate of exchange rate I would have and they are trying to do better as a management of the economy and using computers much more trying to introduce sellers of Marketplace ability so the

goods are not sold it to the factory manager. Reduce the unsaleable just on that collectors is a bonus for having turned out. Also the production of these things are interesting because better without the. Repression that concerns us as Americans this is the right instead of living in the Soviet Union going to make them more peaceful as the labels and treasure was fond of saying after then 53 is it true that that kind of this peaceful kind. Well unfortunately I don't know of any connection between these with this and and excess weight. It's just that the Soviet leaders in the tradition of eating a great deal and under exercising and that tends to develop their way of conceiving of the pictures and they must believe it. First parade but unfortunately that simple type of material is likely that he clings to peaceful attitudes toward her apologies with

the weight of the leaders has not yet proven to be rather it is to deny those in charge of that as not a factor in the world. These are your leaders who are very conscious of their great power as their economy grows they also can do more things they can devote more money to the arms race and they have recently stepped down very substantially as we have to do on our side and they have more resources available to more military and economic aid programs to try to influence various parts of the world to go along with them and become their friends and allies and to come under their influence. It would be very pleasant to assume that because we have not had a major crisis since October 1962 in our relations with the Soviet Union that is going to last forever and will become more and more peaceful. I wish it were the case. I believe there are many things we can do to help with that erection. But no one can

guarantee that where it's going to go. The Soviet leadership is very conscious of its great power status and as they say repeatedly that it can happen anywhere in the world. But what the Soviet Union would have a voice. There is another star who has been widespread and that is still sort of a 1962 and the metal having a free Cuba Missile Crisis by the way President Kennedy that we have. And I was shocked too because you mentioned bribery to causation. That we have reached a plateau of power nothing will ever change that. There will be two great powers that the United States will always have a sufficient margin of security or is other industry showdown. These are we will back down and give up either an expansion. Thing and everything will be very regular. This of course leaving are really a case of retire the first place the military technology is changing

quite steadily in the last five years alone. As a Cuban Missile Crisis the Brits tried to strangle me in the ability of the president like to turn aside. Aid or there's been a great increase in numbers. There are efforts now being made it to work developed and practiced firing 100 warheads as to that means that x number of warheads can be large. Two different targets was a single luxury. Is another let's say six. Then you have immediate change in the strategic weight and value each of us with all of us is a forward to a strategic escalation which is most dangerous and difficult to parent. And this raises grave are steadily on both sides.

The anti-ballistic missile systems are another aspect of this competition to put it very briefly in Bali the ones I've had in an assured ability to strike down the route of the missiles and the other does not side with other capacity has to surrender its interests may be attacked because it will still be able to retire or whatever and be a taking serious risk to. The defense of predators or even allied to were those made pledges and the system would be indicated rather all these things are going on then at a greater pace and the Soviet Union is very active in a rather this was to Brezhnev to head of the Soviet government has stated Soviet meetings very poorly. He would actually see the breakup of nature out. He would like to power that by a European security system which would include Western

Europe and the Soviet Union and there's a friend in the center of Europe and we'll exclude United are back to the cheaters Mili. But he hopes that by some stage it will be possible to have your missile be met as well and he was side stage on one colossal state the Soviet Union possessing tremendous power over the other. Has called repeatedly for the removal of us exactly why Will these two Mediterranean type in the Mediterranean Gen.. Well of course he was forced to leave Libya and in general the Soviet propaganda acc. we should have a no interest outside the United States. This course would be very convenient for Soviet power on the other hand the Soviet we were things is much more complicated today than it was 10 years ago. For one thing the DDR was asian was 12 years ago and not by Prashar. It's far from having run

of course. There is a process of criticism of the Soviet system for questioning us of this basic assumptions which goes very deep in people's minds and within the Soviet like there are many disputes today arguments of many clashes over what to do next. All this thanks to the use of this grace of your power westward to pick up where it lies in the simple days when Stalin could simply decide and then everyone cared and it was justified by the ideology as the inevitable best thing to do. Today there are many arguments going on in the Soviet Union and over policy and to some extent they come out to the public. One of the real problems that we have as Americans in dealing with the Soviet Union is that we have. Because of them so long to look upon kind of this one as the enemy and to bring rather backward

from now on we're going to have to live in a world with several. Just powers in fact quite a few of them. But they are going to be there they have great power. Another factory we have to really absorb seems to me is there is 10 in a nuclear war. Something must be very loosely about throwing nuclear bombs and ending of our weather would end everything for us as well as for that if we tried to talk seriously about the use of nuclear weapons in world strategy we would really have to be making very elaborate plans to move people out of our cities to build underground hospitals water supply or to star power or a sufficient number of doctors and nurses and to be ready for a situation. Western bars were used on both sides when the question would be whether we would lose a hundred and twenty million people around 30 million will be somewhere in that range. Are we

acting too many of our political leaders act as if we had the capacity simply to decide where the rest were due. We're actually going to be living somewhere in the broad range between avoiding employer war one and being on the road without profit in the other there are plenty of it was hopeless and they're going to continue. I don't think the world has ever had tightened up on trade and it certainly was a way to work out of them to in effect with the United Nations in which a disputes can be resolved without at least the threat of force and he's ready whereas we may have to use it so that it's going to be a very hard place and dangerous world within this broad battle within this Broad's bad. Question is are we using our resources to really go the economic and psychological to the best advantage. One of the let me take a particular issue there is today a team

that is united within the kind of this world has demonstrated over the last week. Well of course the meeting of 66 primers parties was held without China's kind was probably the largest one of the world and devoted with making efforts in condemning the Chinese Congress for their policies. And there are threats at the same time as well. Already the Rumanian party walked out because it refused to be barred by the decisions of a group of parties and dictated to by the Soviet Unions of yours as walk on 3 or 2 million people which kind of was leadership the message American public exit from the gathering as you consider the disputes within the Congress were of much deeper than those within the none of us were and within our liners. After our president goes to a number of major of and we are still on very good terms with the French people and we have nothing. The

intensity of emotion that derives from the feeling of catalyst. If you do a brilliant result with and then you are not only wrong but you are a sinner and your sin is being punished for supposedly Romania which has to be presented as a trade with the Soviet Union to parent other for life. Range of probably Cheerios and machinery were to be subjected to economic pressures such as a Soviet Union had applied very often in the. Again he was louder against China. So are we in this country would not be able to help Rumania reorganise trade because the legislation left over from the Cold War period when there was I would lead a mother Congress Hoover and anything that have one proud of this country with all of them with the Soviet Union. Today we wanted to help because we were made here which is seeking better relations with the West which is not expansionist and Anyway back doesn't want to seize your

power to criticize and to assert its independence its bargaining power against the Soviets the economic pressure we are power and put by a legislature. This is a great pity because we need much want less ability than using those resources that are available to us and that's driving those rules into us out of our hands as we are doing today. I would like to articulate this very point. President have some trade with the Soviet Union. There's a lot of very large are kind of these are two power to each other in many ways and I was a great deal they would like to buy from us and there was greater than what they could sell to us. And over time they want to balance unless they want to celebrate your goal which of course would be very much to our betters and the Saudis say or go out in large quantities or to for a million dollars from 1963 64 whether consider going up to him you go places in the world. So we're going to our present legislation. We don't want to trade with the Soviet

Union and we act as if they were going to make some political concessions in order to secure the trade with us. That's just not realistic at the present time. Or trade should be regarded as something that is economically and racially beneficial and should be carried on. It is up and a visual show and of course there will always be control of our strategic goods and the question of how to buy them exactly go ahead. Parker some dispute but to me give you another illustration. We have been urging the Soviet Union to do much more towards the livelihood of its own people raise their standard of living this year. A hundred and twenty thousand pounds. Your cries are made available to private owners in the Soviet Union and if you want to buy a car you pay for it. For over a period of years and then you wait five years before they cross the lever. Well we think that the very good thing it has only been used to bore steel to build a passenger car

then to build more roads because they have very few roads today. Motels that like this of luxuries but there certainly was a good motel service stations the top cars and Russian cars for the cars or the rack because the Russians are very the visuals to drivers. And in fact you are like your brother's Harjo who can say that if there were we would be encouraging the Soviet kind because he made a kind of us we get first choice and buy a new passenger cars to kill each other off. I believe it's a present I thought at one time advocating this kind of thing action doesn't work. They're on in Asia by the star Joe and I don't really advocate directly but to his lawyer. So if people want cars and are they want to drive the way they do it out of the dish choice that I. Recently saw the government has entered into a contract with a PR

company in Italy to build a large part of a plan to vote which will turn out for seven hundred and fifty thousand two hundred by around 1971 ascended you. And the PR company which is a very fine capitalist enterprise would like to buy the heavy machinery from the United States for its best made into the best and most affected. This was this a contract with a broader 65 billion dollars in earnings to help the best powers of payment as it were committed to the Soviet Union to use American machinery in the future for replacements. And it had many others are by products. Congress last month in February. That was kind of the deal by this legislation. It said that any and that no export import bank loans or guarantees can be given directly or indirectly. It will help the country which is helping. North Vietnam whether we can understand emotions that attach to this question but is it the right way to

proceed. After all of the Soviet Union can feel strongly about what we are doing to get on but they want to trade in three years as another political activity. I don't know why we should be the ones of the nation as diverse an ideological barrier to it. Well the result is are they part of the order are going to be taken up by Americans because American private banks are not inhibited by legislation was respected and the price will be barred the Western Europe will help and European powers penguins and not ours. I just want to show the way in which we have Hotwire ourselves by our failure to understand that we need a variety of policies a variety of approaches that we need to use initials that we have and other sealed and all out hostility or all our friendship as a normal basis of relations between two very great powers. Which are very briefly to some problems in Asia the relations between kind of US China and

the Soviet Union are extremely bitter and the Russians are extremely worried today. They are fearful that China will someday attacker and try to take away their land and even to defeat them. That's not true. But after all rational China lives. I cyber have a couple friends here. Over 6000 miles. As a they were proud of the Russian said to me a few weeks ago. It's all right for you on the record because you couldn't necessarily be they shouldn't go to America and the Chinese would not ever be able to attend to the stuff for a very paranoid time but we're right next door and they there will be a billion Chinese probably by 90 was 85 and some day there will be a powerful industrial nation. It's only then that a tyrant will they overcome so I will return to confusions and to disorders so the Soviet government and the Soviet people are very worried about this. And today the United

States is the most popular foreign country among Soviet people as it had been constantly for the last 50 years and China is the most unpopular. That certainly is a rather strange a kind of ideological. A life between two kind of this regimes. But that's the way it is despite every official propaganda against the US position in Asia. Many Soviet people of semiofficial position and they will say these things unless they had permission or doubted it would not lead to their punishment at least arguing that it would be a serious blow to the Soviet position if the United States left Asia had simply washed its hands. Because that is the problem of containing the declared expressionism of the Chinese because this is a war this is a factor to keep in mind because the more cases and we ourselves pressure guys especially the press there are power of U.S. interests. We have a power

of interest in avoiding in Clearwater and we have demonstrated that through to treaties the test then Russia Test Ban Treaty and now the nonproliferation treaty in an effort to slow down the spread of nuclear weapons which is why we checked can bring about a wider dispersal of nuclear weapons within 10 to 15 years and there is a selfish interest it is easier for two powers to deal with each other. Great guys. Who is responsible who is attending shark and that is if there are going to be 12 of 15 nuclear powers. He's capable of causing great destruction. So we have a common interest. We have a lot of interest in that being involved in war by scryer allies who for their own selfish purposes like wish to cede the great powers to babies. I was involved in a showed up last year in the Israeli Arab conflict. The hotline was used 20 times between Moscow and Peking and was used for the first time since it was in

1963. This is an important milestone because it shows it was important in stabilizing the situation between the two big powers and therefore it containing the effects of the war in the Middle East and likely just who would grab myself a minute to tell a British saw good joke about the hard life of the Soviet people who were very pleased with the idea the highlight here were the two most powerful governors were talking directly to each other instead of holding each other off and this is here the great hero. It also made them feel that they were now recognized as a great power and whether psychological problems or they felt the leaders taking the really seriously. The stories about Alaska a few months ago and it is about to get out of to the course they have a role I did think it is a toilet on the wings in the Kremlin and the White House and the two men speak to each other directly.

I don't think the problem of actually transmission and translation sought the highlighted question as a teletype and his best wishes are typed up ended very quickly. But they and of course have to be in one language or the other and translated whenever the other. But anyway the Soviets or the West are story about the hardware is the telephone the hard line reading the White House and three more present just who was it was a list because this was a great part of the event and he reached for the phone and said you know this is just as Beijing a faint voice or the other as he can't hear you. Who's that can speak to the love of his own kid. Glad to hear your voice but worried about actually to push off to the special housings going with you without cash think a lot of your voice isn't coming through loud and clear the way it did last time.

She carries. Well the letters came through loud and clear as June and I was a very good thing because some of the accusations made by Nasser were designed to trap the Soviet Union into taking a position hastily committing its prestige and perhaps he would come to the military aid of the courses in the struggle with the terrible consequences that would occur when we act as if we should if we just pretended that covers China is were there to hear will someday go away and most likely the world and there's one kind of war that we should never get into That's a World Cup as China certainly did cause great damage to their economy. Good cause. Perhaps the

millions of deaths from starvation to disrupting their economy. We could do a video down if we would only confirm their hostility for a thousand years. And this would be a grave mistake and back to anywhere we use nuclear bombs. There is no matter how small is going to sell for Caterpillar. The psychological effect throughout the world even those who may benefit by using the healing will feel a sense of horror that this thing is unleashed again so that we have to keep that alive until but even if we bought our clothes China without nuclear weapons we could cause tremendous damage but we would not cause a change of heart. The regime we would not cause a breakdown of the political loyalty and control we would simply be piling up more of us telling more teachers for the future. So if we don't to expect to destroy countries China that had never been our aim as he was dying for tonight why then we ought to consider whether he had 10 20 or 30 years. We should not try to

bring crime as China out of this isolation or at least make it clear that isolation is imposed by their own. Our time is long past but it was to our advantage to keep Congress China out of the United Nations has been extremely valuable to have the Soviet Union a regular member of the United Nations with many people serving the secretary has given him a start by the people and either side as they retire. I could cite individual cases of people who have gone back to their countries of Russia povo who sided others with very different ideas about politics about American people when they happened they came and that's when the extremely bad over time and I've never seen a record of the fact upon which I was kind of was thinking we might at least to give them the present who are stronger people a dictatorship you don't need large number who would have a better idea of the real world outside China than they have today is a very serious matter the you know the Chinese leader today has ever been

devastated and therefore has no idea of what we're really like they have the clichéd propaganda ideas and this is very dangerous. The greatest dangers of war come from this understanding and this appraisal and up and evil manner and conspiracy.