The next fifty years; A Future Filled With Change, pt. II

Because nobody will recognize the position of the ghetto dweller is getting worse. Nothing is going to be done that because nobody will recognize that all we are meant to do is to consume. Nothing will be done because nothing no one will recognize that a wall and walls are inevitable within our system. Nothing will be done and out of this is growing a hopelessness that I have not really head represented on this platform. Even the Savely there are people in this society who are planning to destroy this Assad. In a relatively brief period of time who have lost hope. I do not say that I approve but it must be right Dick nice that it is true for if we do not recognize it we cannot make policy.

And surely we must recognize why they say this so well. Splitting between the right and the pole the white and the nonwhite both at home and abroad surely gives cause for hopelessness. This is a third view and that view says that the establishment is not evil. But it is trapped and it is trapped in at least three profound ways the first of these is that in our socio economic system was the only way of settling international disputes. And that is Mike No Morrow has just pointed out there is no choice but to introduce anti missile missile systems. And he said it is a nonsensical thing to do. But I have no choice. He does not act on American policy

as Johnson said in his State of the Union message to the Russians will you please stop building an anti ballistic missile system so I will not have to do so. They did not and we had to build an anti ballistic missile system. What that means of course is that the foreign policy of the United States is made in Russia and the foreign policy of Russia is made in the United States. The only way out of this is by the same late those took place when we abolished doing that one day we simply said that the way to settle personal disputes was not through a facet of our own and we claim this was because we became more humane I would suggest to you it is because dealing with machine guns is on the track to open.

A second trap is that every man in our society must have a trial for every man to have a child. We must as Walter Heller so eloquently put it retried him. And if we cannot retry him adequately we must ensure that the government provides a job for him as the employer of last resort. You know the fact that this will mean in the very near future that many men will be in slavery. And I mean that literally because they will be dependent on a single employer doesn't seem to bother us on we must off to incentives. The only way we know apparently to preserve incentives is to use positive and negative sanctions or as I prefer the whip and the carrot. And the

third requirement in the trap of a system is the consumption trap. It is necessary in our society that we should consume everything that can be produced. However useless it may be. If we do not there are not enough jobs. I have two horror stories. One is the fact that I was recently made by the Department of Agriculture a fill on the beauties of smoking for export only. In my young days I was taught something about the lesser breeds without the law. And the second horror story is a longer one it's what happens to all of our children who watch television from one to

five us that crime parent. And who are basically taught the values of consumption and for net a dead dead dead. Please buy me. Society is trapped. People cannot change. Decision makers do not make decisions. Reread Sen.. McNamara statement about the missile system and you will see exactly what I mean. There is only one way out and I should warn you that I too share of the fallacy that men can be good. We have been warned against this this evening. But I share it because of the fact that cybernetics which no but been invented has taught us full things about any effectively functioning system.

The first is that in any functioning system there must be accurate movement of information or if you prefer honesty. Secondly that in any functioning system there must be people who are willing to act when action is required. Or if you prefer responsibility said that there must be a willingness of subsystems not to try to take over the total system. As Gregory Bateson so eloquently put it the worst thing that can happen to a parasite is to find a perfect host. Man at the moment is acting in that role towards his total environment. And finally that that must be in a system a willingness to give to adapt to unusual circumstances. Or in other words.

We've been told this for a long time. There's nothing new in those statements. But one must to come left out of his analysis is that for the first time each of us and each of our groups has the possibility of destroying it. And if we don't have it now we certainly will have it within the next fifty years. Good to set a long time ago that if we take man as he is we make him worse. If we take man as he might be then he might become what is possible. I believe that the mutation we have heard about in man has in fact could that all young people and in fact many of the older people see that the new world must be co-operative instead of that it must be process oriented instead of goal

oriented and must above all abolish the problem of pollo lessness that each human individual must have a right to power over their own lives and all problems are not only all physical traps that I talked about but some other traps which we've heard about and which I will only repeat very briefly. It is true that in the past the old did know. And the young could be told. Today for the first time we have a situation in which it is true that both the young and the old know and must share their knowledge. It is true that we are on the go a profound change in the relationships between men and women in this society with the values which have been predominantly ascribed to men becoming less important and those ascribed to women becoming more important.

It is true that the jobs that people have held up to the present time all being automated and cyber knighted out of existence and where they are not that it is no longer possible to push those beautiful bureaucratic buttons and to expect to do things now even those officially in charge have to turn people on. If anything is to happen because of the pope why's nothing important will happen. And all of these things up profoundly threatening to us. And the thing you say I regret about this meeting is that despite all youve heard this evening is that this meeting is not threatening to us in the constructive steps. And the reason it isn't is very simple. You haven't heard

enough of any one person to understand a new philosophy. And you haven't had the opportunity to sit down with each other to discuss what you have and if you can take in nine of accumulated verbiage. You're doing better. OK. What I think you have been allowed to do so far is to believe that if only you listen to him long enough to the sole authority his on this platform you will go away with more wisdom. I doubt it. I doubt it for a profound reason because I think the only thing that we can tell you is that we don't know. And that's the one message you happened heard much from the spot Fany have

asked. Have you know the stuff you've heard here. You should have known already. And I'm not being frivolous. Point is we have modern communication and we downplay it. I think we downplay it in part because of Marshall McLuhan who said the medium is the message. This of course as my wife pointed out to me is nonsense. The statement should read and you will see in a moment why it is relevant to present day TV. Is that in the absence of a fake content the medium becomes the message. Thank you all. Thank you.

If you think of also mellows applied death of a Salesman it doesn't matter really what medium that appears on. It carries a message. Now if we could for a moment increase the content carried on the media. It would then no longer be true that the medium would be the message. What I think we can do today is to create through a massive educational experience based around TV. I believe we can bring the same experience to everybody who wants it across the country. And I believe that we can get people sat down in small groups to discuss it in the way that I think is necessary before it can be absorbed. I believe that we can carry through educational reform at this point so that people do sit down in small groups to invent the knowledge we know. And I say NO deliberately because invention is the

discovery of what we don't know we know. Let me suggest to you that there is one key to our new society and without it that we have no chance of survival for the next 10 years let alone the next 50 and that is that each man must be given the power over his own life and lists of course comes back to whole of you. We forgotten the planners and I guess some of you were very grateful for it. But now let me point out that the issue we've been talking about the same evening is the end of planning for people. And the beginning of planning with people and to put it bluntly you haven't been very willing yet

you see people follow up systems they get in the way they make things on tidy. They have wimps. I did lob States in motion a mosque to climes don't have any room for them. If you're. Listening and if you haven't listened to what you could see the issue behind this for you is whether you can break out of the great belief that you have made 50 years of progress. Thank you. I think you are further away from working with people than you were in 19 70.

And if you expect to do any good in the in a city and in the ghetto over the next months you will do it as consultants to these people who will tell you what they want. Thanks. I notice experts who know how everything ought to be done. And if you can spend the rest of the week trying to discover how to become humble how to bring your skills to help those who so desperately need them. Then I would suggest to you the week before being worthwhile Thank you. That was Dr. Robert Theo bald whose remarks drew commentary from a colleague Dr. Herman Kahn. Although a physicist not a member of the sociological or economic community. Dr. Connie is nonetheless ably qualified to serve as an astute observer of

future planning needs for science atomic science particularly is expected to play a key role in the future of this country and the world. The director of the Hudson Institute and formerly associated with the Rand Corporation here is Dr. Hermann Kong. There were strains of important agreement between all six speakers all believe that this is a very important change coming through all of us. All of us a deeply concerned with participatory democracy. All of us this fight because the people's last statement I deeply concerned with nuclear war. The differences do not lie on these three issues. How many people have the impression that anybody aside from call always be Robert Theobald. We're certain of the prescription. Mr Theobald said you hadn't heard any uncertainty from this platform to save me. You were listening. You understand English songs Mr.

Theobald. Do you have any impression of certainty from the other four speakers. You know you've got to separate certainly a prescription of certainty of analysis. You don't understand English. That's a prerequisite to communication if English is the language of the communication. To very important purposes. You must understand English or I can't describe it in English to you. There's another common concern which ran through all six speakers. The worry about spontaneity about romance the romantic reaction. Now the common jargon has a I think very perceptively love is blind. We all know that romantic love is one of the achievements of an away Western civilization. Some people claim Dante invented it and I suspect that's wrong. I like it. Most of us would feel almost empty without it. How many people think that a

man in love knows what he's doing. I mean I don't buy love I'm all in favor of it. It's a great thing. Life without it would be called less. No amount of economic progress would replace it. But don't go to it for advice. Dr. Hermann Khan's remarks brought a response of their own. Here once again is socio economist Dr. Robert Theo bawled the question isn't English. It's distortion. Thank you. I said. That nobody had told you they didn't know. It's a different issue. I CAN GIVE YOU A large amounts of statistics and figures and facts and then say I didn't expect you to believe them. That's an interesting gimmick. But I don't think it's the same thing.

You are listening to a discussion of America's needs in planning for development during the next 50 years. A candid discussion involving many of the world's most distinguished experts from a variety of disciplines. Our next brief response comes from Harvard University professor philosopher and researcher Dr. Rhee manual Gene Meschini. I'm intrigued by this dispute between Mr. Theobald and Mr. Khan. Because they're both quite right I didn't stand up here and say I don't know. In so many words and neither did Mr. Khan and neither did any of us. But most of us some of us who are trying to struggle. With great uncertainties do so from a position of knowing very well how much we don't know. And trying in effect to propose

a test and analyze hypotheses it seems to me that to stand up and contrast and say I don't know is not a virtue but an abdication of the responsibility to think and understand. Probably one of the real treats for this reporter in covering the conference on the next 50 years was the opportunity to chat with Dr. Carle Gunnar Mirrorball one of the world's true great thinkers. He is a Swedish sociologist and economist and Dr. Mirrorball is professor of international economic studies at Stockholm in Sweden. His reputation is renowned. He is thoroughly versed on American problems and is the author of several works on that subject. Dr Meir Dahl provided some frank dialogue. Next week we will present his formal speech on the problems of America. But this week we are pleased to present an exclusive

interview. I asked Dr. Merritt all to comment on what he viewed as the most serious problems facing this country in the fields of social and Urban Development. Here was his reply. I feel Of course that in American society as a whole there is very little foresight and sometimes that is better living. I do hers to the ideas you weave. Yes believe on that. Yes I do. I think fundamentally in America there should be a much higher priority. For instance if we understood reality from the main idea that America is tremendously rich is of course and the assumption that you're not going to do anything about talking about it because if you're prepared to do something then it's a question and they do

not give a profit in the short run in a long absence from reality in America. This characteristic only of America or I mean it's of course characteristic all over the place but it's particularly in America I think you have bigger problems in many respects than than the rest of the world I mean you have the underclass which means that they have never been able to raise up as a power which of course is notorious with where they are the same people that run riot after a protest from those who are not privileged you know and so the right for states being created and cried away then you have one of the difficulties and there are other difficulties. I mean the unity of the

underclass I think this is a fundamental thing. You mentioned just a moment ago the myth of America's a fluence and you said in your paper that it's really a mortgage to slow less. Now do you think that should be told Americans you know I mean they should be told about it and they should be told about that this is not only something which is bad because if you pay that mortgage I mean you would have a great economic future even if it's you know it's economic but it's a long long term investment which means that you have said the second Feis now for a long time without any you know I mean yes we're staying from it. Is there any way as an economist that you can see this changing to release these people from the bonds of and that's just the start to rebuilding the city. We can do it you can do it you know. Surely you can read this but then you must have a definite plan and

to have that plan and vote the money for it and as I said you know many things just to have other administrative and fiscal units that's of course not in the interest of the people who live in the suburbs who are low taxes and good schools. You know that you know which would be destroyed. You know I mean it's definitely a class a class question and we don't come very far with it. If you don't get the social forces to move in there comes again the difficulty of the hip the unity of the underclass which means that they're fighting between themselves but to take it for what you know and not joining together behind a progressive line I mean all of them have all their future in having a progressive America you know I mean just keeping full employment and doing all these great things. How do we change that. Talk to the people and then I think my profession professor said too little you know I mean they are scientists and they keep you right. I can tell

you a story I was at the university not one of the very famous university at luncheon with a lot of young bright people who read The Economist and one of them said how happy you are going not that you can publish a book like the chalice reference I was flabbergasted. Well it took me 21 days and then he said if I did it my career would be ruined. I recall to popularize you know I mean something wrong or something wrong in the whole the whole attitude and it's not only in America we are getting the same situation in Sweden the scientists and scholars can talk to each other different economists the different branches you know. I suppose I have to leave it to the statesmen in the field such a statement I think the need to help the thousands and thousands of professors. That was Dr. Karl gunner Mirrorball Swedish economist and sociologist. Our final guest on this week's edition of the next 50 years a penetrating discussion of this nation's needs

for planned development through the years 2017. In future weeks you will hear experts from a variety of disciplines all discussing the future of this country and how we should best prepare for it as there are disciplines applied to that development. Dr. Mirrorball will speak in greater detail on next week's program. In this 13 week series at that time he will present formal remarks on the subject the future of American society. Also to be featured next week is the brilliant writer and social critic David T Basil on the New York attorney teacher author civic leader and author of the book Power in America. We hope you will be listening for these significant presentations next week. Until then this is Bill Greenwood public affairs director of the national educational radio network reporting from Washington D.C..

This has been another program in the NERC early the next 50 years expressing a variety of opinions on the future of the democratic environment. These views were given at the 50th year conference of the American Institute of planners held in Washington in October of last year. As early as Monday for those buying White House. Bill Greenwood and Jack Burkman. And I mean who am you Af-Ams American University Radio in Washington D.C.. This is any are the national educational radio network.