Florida Primary A January 31, 2012 11:00pm-11:30pm EST; Florida Primary A PBS NewsHour

Captioning sponsored by MacNEIL/LEHRER PRODUCTIONS > IT IS A BIG NIGHT FOR MITT ROMNEY, THE FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR HAS WON A COMMANDING VICTORY IN FLORIDA'S WINNER TAKE ALL PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. GOOD EVENING, I AM GWEN IFILL AND I AM JUDY WOODRUFF IN TAMPA FLORIDA, WE WILL HAVE THE LATEST RESULTS AND ANALYSIS THON PBS NEWS HOUR SPECIAL REPORT.

>> MITT ROMNEY IS BASKING IN THE GLOW OF AN EASY WIN IN THE SUNSHINE STATE AND CRUISED PAST NEWT GINGRICH IN TODAY'S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY CONTEST IN FLORIDA WITH ALL BUT AT HANDFUL OF VOTES OUTSTANDING ROMNEY WON AT LEAST 46 PERCENT OF THE VOTE, GINGRICH HAD 32 PERCENT, REVERSING THE OUTCOME IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY ONLY TEN DAYS AGO. THIS EVENING, ROMNEY SUPPORTERS HIT THE TAMPA CONVENTION CENTER AND TOOK NOTE OF THE FIERCE FIGHT THAT HE AND GINGRICH WAGED IN FLORIDA.

>> PRIMARY CONTESTS ARE NOT EASY, AND THEY ARE NOT SUPPOSED TO BE. AS THIS PRIMARY UNFOLD IT IS THE OTHER PARTY HAS BEEN WATCHING AND THEY LIKE TO COMFORT THEMSELVES WITH THE THOUGHT THAT A EXECUTIVE CAMPAIGN WILL LEAVE US DIVIDED AND WEAK. BUT I HAVE GOT NEWS FOR THEM, A COMPETITIVE PRIMARY DOES NOT DIVIDE US, IT PREPARES US AND WE WILL WIN. AND WHEN WE GATHER BACK HERE IN TAMPA SEVEN MONTHS FROM NOW FOR OUR CONVENTION, OUR -- [ CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ]

>> -- OURS WILL BE A UNITED PARTY WITH A WINNING TICKET FOR AMERICA. WE STILL BELIEVE IN THE AMERICA SAT THE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY AND A BEACON OF FREEDOM. WE BELIEVE IN THE AMERICA THAT CHALLENGES EACH OF US TO BE BIGGER AND BETTER THAN OURSELVES. THIS ELECTION, LET'S FIGHT FOR THE AMERICA WE LOVE. WE BELIEVE IN AMERICA. THANK YOU SO MUCH. FLORIDA, YOU ARE THE BEST. GOD BLESS THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THANK YOU!

>> DESPITE HIS 14 PERCENTAGE POINT LOSS TONIGHT, NEWT GINGRICH VOWED TO KEEP FIGHTING AND STAY IN THE RACE. THE FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE MADE CLEAR HE IS GIVING NO GROUND AS HE SPOKE TO SUPPORTER AT A HOE BELL BALLROOM IN ORLANDO.

>> IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT THIS WILL BE A TWO PERSON RACE BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVE LEADER, NEWT GINGRICH, AND THE MASSACHUSETTS MODERATE. [ APPLAUSE ]

>> AND THE VOTERS OF FLORIDA REALLY MADE THAT CLEAR. NOW, YOU WILL NOTICE THE NUMBER OF FOLKS WHO ARE HOLDING UP A SIGN ABOUT 46 STATES TO GO. [ APPLAUSE ]

>> WE DID THIS IN PART FOR THE ELITE MEDIA, BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, THE SAME PEOPLE WHO SAID I WAS DEAD IN JUNE AND JULY AND SAID I WAS GONE AFTER IOWA, WHO SEEMED TOTALLY EYE AT THE TIME NIGHT OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA VICTORY, ARE NOW GOING TO BE BACK SAYING WHAT IS HE GOING TO DO? I WANT TO REASSURE THEM TONIGHT, WE ARE GOING TO CONTEST EVERY PLACE IN AND WE ARE GOING TO WIN AND WE WILL BE IN TAMPA AS THE NOMINEE IN AUGUST. [ CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ]

>> THE TWO REMAINING GOP CANDIDATES FORMER PENNSYLVANIA SENATOR RICK SANTORUM AND TEXAS CONGRESSMAN RON PAUL WERE DISTANT ALSO RANS IN FLORIDA. THEY MOVED ON TO NEVADA TONIGHT WHERE REPUBLICAN POLL CAUCUSES THIS COMING SATURDAY. SANTORUM APPEARED AT HIS STATE HEADQUARTERS IN LAS VEGAS AND HE LAMENTED THE SHARPLY NEGATIVE TURN THE RA HAS TAKEN.

>> THE AMERICAN PUBLIC DOES NOT WANT TO SEE TWO OR THREE CANDIDATES GET INTO A MUD, YOU KNOW, A MUD WRESTLING MATCH WHERE EVERYBODY WALKS AWAY DIRTY AND NOT IN A POSITION TO BE ABLE TO REPRESENT OUR PARTY PROUDLY. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE ISSUES, AND WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THOSE DIFFERENCES ON THE ISSUES, BUT WHAT WE SAW IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN THE STATE OF FLORIDA IS NOT SOMETHING THAT IS GOING TO HELP US WIN THIS ELECTION.

>> CONGRESSMAN PAUL ALSO WENT BEFORE SUPPORTERS AT A LAS VEGAS RESORT. HE DID NOT CAMPAIGN IN FLORIDA, OTHER THAN THE DEBATES, AND HE SAID HE IS READY TO GO ALL OUT IN THE UPCOMING CAUCUS STATES.

>> YOU KNOW,, A FEW MONTHS AGO THERE WERE, WELL, THESE CANDIDATES, THERE WERE NINE, WE ARE DOWN TO FOUR, BUT TONIGHT, TONIGHT I SAW A STATISTIC WE ARE IN THIRD PLACE WHEN IT COMES TO DELEGATES AND THAT IS WHAT REALLY COUNTS. [ CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ] .. AND WE HAVE ONLY GOTTEN STARTED. NOW THE COUNTING REALLY OCCURS.

>> AND NOW TO THE ANALYSIS OF SHIELDS AND BROOKS, THAT SYNDICATED COLUMNIST MARK SHIELDS AND NEW YORK TIMES COLUMNIST DAVID BROOKS. NO QUESTION, A BIG VICTORY TONIGHT FOR ROMNEY, 16 POINTS, WHICH IS WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW, HOW DID HE BOUNCE BACK AFTER WHAT WE SAW IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

>> HE REALIZED HE MIGHT LOSE AND MIGHT LOSE THE NOMINATION AND MIGHT LOSE TO THAT GUY, A GUY HE DOESN'T PARTICULARLY RESPECT SO HE MOBILIZED AND GOT A NEW DEBATE COCOACH AND MUCH TOUGHER, DECIDED AS THE CAMPAIGN SAYS OVER AND OVER AGAIN THEY WOULD KEEP THE PEDAL TO THE METAL AND GOT ON THE OFFENSIVE AND SHOWED HE WAS TOUGH AND AT THAT IS WHAT REPUBLICANS ARE LOOKING FOR. TWO IDEOLOGICAL VIEWS OF THE PARTY THIS ONE IS NOT, GINGRICH WOULD HAVE DONE WELL TO HAVE SAID I AM REALLY DIFFERENT ON TAXES AND HEALTHCARE THAN ROMNEY AND NEVER BEEN ABLE TO MAKE THAT CLEAR DISTINCTION SO IT BECOMES A RACE OVER WHO IS THE BETTER SALESMAN AND WHO IS STRONG AND WHO CAN COMPETE AGAINST OBAMA.

>> MARK, ALL OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS HE WON THROUGHOUT THE STATE, THE ARCHITECTURE OF THIS VICTORY IS MORE THAN JUST GETTING TOUGH, IT WAS SOMETHING MORE TO IT.

>> NO. THE BIGGEST CONCERN OF REPUBLICANS VOTE IN FLORIDA WAS ELECTABILITY, THEY WANTED SOMEBODY WHO CAN BEAT PRESIDENT OBAMA, AND THREE OUT OF FIVE OF THEM VOTED FOR MITT ROMNEY. SO THE ELECTABILITY, THE IDEA THAT I CAN BE EFFECTIVE IN NOVEMBER TRUMPED NEWT GINGRICH'S ARGUMENT THAT I CAN GO TOE TO TOE IN THE LINCOLN DOUGLAS DEBATES, THE ENDLESS LINCOLN DOUGLAS LINCOLN DEBATES HE CONTEMPLATES WITH OBAMA, THE OLDER YOU WERE THE MORE LIKELY YOU WERE TO VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY, THE RICHER YOU WERE, THE MORE LIKELY, VOTERS OVER 100,000, HE CARRIED, A LOPSIDED MATCH. HE CARRIED VOTERS OVER 200,000, FOR WHOM THERE WERE NINE PERCENT OF THE FLORIDA PRIMARY BY NEARLY A THREE TO ONE MARGIN, BUT IT WAS ACROSS-THE-BOARD VICTORY, THE ONLY GROUPS HE REALLY LOST WERE VERY CONSERVATIVE VOTERS, GUINN, AND EVANGELICAL AND HE LOST THEM BY AN EYELASH SO IT WAS REALLY A SOMETHING VICTORY FOR ROMNEY.

>> WAS IT A VICTORY FOR THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT, THAT IS ALL THE FORMER NOMINEES WHO ALL CAME OUT, SOME OF THEM WHO HAD NOT SEEN FROM THEM IN MANY YEARS TO SAY, NEWT GINGRICH IS SCARY, HE CANNOT WIN?

>> YEAH, WELL, I DEFINE THE REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT WHO KNOW WHAT NEWT GINGRICH IS LIKE IN OFFICE AND THE PEOPLE WHO WERE THERE WITH HIM, AND SO IT IS NOT THAT THE THEY ARE IN A RM AND ALL AGREE ON THINGS, THEY JUST HAVE EXPERIENCE WITH THE GUY, AND SO MARCUS POINTED OUT BEFORE OF ALL THE PEOPLE WHO SERVED WITH HIM IN CONGRESS, VERY FEW HAVE ACTUALLY ENDORSED HIM, MOST ARE GOING THE OTHER WAY. AND SO THEY -- THE VALUE, THEY RALLIED AROUND. WHETHER THAT HELPED, MAYBE, YOU KNOW,, THERE IS SORT OF A POPULIST JACK STONIAN WING OF THE PARTY WON'T BE FOR ROMNEY .. BUT MOSTLY THIS IS WHAT THE PARTY IS, TEA PARTY IS PART OF THE PARTY AND MANY PEOPLE LIKE THE TEA PARTY BUT IT IS STILL A MAIN STREET REPUBLICAN PARTY WE HAVE KNOWN FOR MANY YEARS, AND MITT ROMNEY FITS THAT PRETTY WELL, EMOTIONAL TENOR IS THE BIG DIFFERENCE HERE, GINGRICH IS ANGRY, ROMNEY IS SORT OF DRIVEN BUT MORE OR LESS BUSINESS LIKE AND THAT IS MORE OR LESS WHAT I STILL THINK THE PARTY FEELS COMFORTABLE WITH.

>> AND YET RICK SANTORUM CAME OUT TONIGHT AND SAID I AM STILL THE ANTI-MITT, THERE HAS BEEN THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS OF THE PRIMARY SEASON THE ONLY FOUR WEEKS BY THE WAY.

>> THAT'S RIGHT. FOUR WEEKS.

>> IN EVERY SINGLE CASE THERE HAS BEEN AN IDEA THAT SOMEONE HAS OPPOSED TO SOMEONE WHO IS NOT MITT ROMNEY, IS THERE STILL A NEED FOR THAT?

>> WE WILL FIND OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, GWYN, BUT IT CONSISTENTLY HAS, ROMNEY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO BECOME THE FAVORITE. THE EMOTIONAL CHOICE OF THE PARTY, HE HAS BEEN A LOGICAL CHOICE, THERE IS MORE OF A CASE YOU CAN MAKE FOR A ROMNEY THAN THE CASE HE MAKES FOR HIMSELF, YES, EXACTLY WHAT DADE I DAVID SAID HE IS GROWN UP AND HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL HE HAS RUN A WELL ORGANIZED CAMPAIGN. CAMPAIGN, HE HAS EXPERIENCE AND BEEN ELECTABLABLE AND BEEN THROUGH IT BEFORE AND A SUCCESS IN BUSINESS BUT THERE IS NOT REALLY A TELLING REASON TO VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY. THERE IS NO VISION THAT HE OFFERS THAT IS REALLY DIFFERENT OR COMPELLING. AND I THINK THAT IS WHAT HAS BEEN MISSING IS THAT EMOTIONAL CONNECTION WITH THE VOTERS. THE OTHER GROUP THAT HE REALLY DID WELL WITH WAS MARRIED WOMEN, AND THAT IS TRULY AN A CHILLY'S HILL, ACHILLES' HEEL FOR NEWT GINGRICH AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT HE DOES FOR IT GOING FORWARD.

>> TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS SPENT BY ROMNEY AND BY THESE SUPER PACKS DOES IT CHANGE THE NATURE OF A PRIMARY CAMPAIGN?

>> I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT THIS. IF YOU LOOK AT THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED IN THE EARLY VOTING, SOME OF IT AS EARLY AS LAST YEAR MORE THAN A MONTH AGO, THEY VOTED FOR ROMNEY IN BIGGER PROPORTION THAN THE PEOPLE WHO VOTED SINCE AFTER ALL OF THIS MONEY WAS SPENT, SO IT CLEARLY HAD AN AFFECT AFTER THE SOUTH CAROLINA TURN AROUND BUT IN MY VIEW IT TURNED THE VOTERS BACK TO THEIR DEFAULT POSITION.

>> IN THIS IS A DISAGREEMENT. I THINK COMING OUT OF SOUTH CAROLINA, ROMNEY WAS LIMPING, HE WAS VERY MUCH ON THE DEFENSIVE ABOUT HIS MONEY, ABOUT HIS INCOME, TAX, EVERYTHING ELSE, AND THAT WAS THE NARRATIVE. THAT WAS THE STORY COMING OUT. HE CHANGED THAT STORY BY, A, AS DAVID POINTED OUT, HIS DEBATE PERFORMANCE. HE HAD A NEW COACH, BUT HE HAD TO DO IT, HE DID IT. BUT THE MONEY OVERWHELMINGLY, 92 PERCENT COMMERCIAL SPOTS WERE NEGATIVE, 68 PERCENT OF ALL THE MONEY SPENT ON TELEVISION BOUGHT SPOTS AGAINST NEWT GINGRICH, AND IT RAISED HIS NEGATIVES.

>> I THINK HE CALLED IT CARPET BOMBING. DAVID, MARK. KEEP YOUR SEATS, WE WILL COME BACK AND TALK ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS NEXT BUT FIRST WE WILL GO TO JUDY IN TAMPA.

>> THANKS, GWEN, LET'S TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RESULTS THAT CAME IN TONIGHT IN FLORIDA AND FOR THAT LET'S TURN TO STU ROTH BURGH, ED FOR OF THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT AND ALSO A COLUMNIST FOR ROLL CALL, IN AND OUR OWN KRISTINA, NEWS HOUR POLITICAL EDITOR, KRISTINA YOU HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE RESULTS AND COMPARING THE NUMBERS WITH THE MAP OF FLORIDA, WHAT ARE -- WHAT DO YOU LEARN AS YOU DO THAT?

>> IT IS REALLY A LOT OF WHAT WE SORT OF THOUGHT GOING INTO THIS, THAT MITT ROMNEY IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY STRONG STATEWIDE BUT NEWT GINGRICH IS GOING TO WIN OVER THE MOST CONSERVATIVE VOTERS WHICH ARE IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THTHEAAR AR IS NORTHERN FLORIDA T AN IDUIS MCH MORE LIKELY TO BH SOUTH, GINGRICH WILLEMEM RERB THECOMANGSSREN FROM GEORGIA THAN IT ISIK RE THEEF OST FLORIDA THAT HAS A LOT OF MY GRANTS FROM OTHER PARTS POSSESS THE AUNY, OTROT P FLE LFPEO FROMELWESE REWHPEL ESEWHRE LIVING IN THISA,RE ASE FLORIA, D O'SS REALLY SHOWEDEY RMN STRENGTH MOSTLYIDTEWTATE,IS E, ALSO INTERESTED TO NOTEATTH TAT Y CORRIDOR THAT RUNS ROUGHLY BEACH SOUTHWEST ACROSTATH SETE TO TAMPA, THAT IS WHERE ROMNEY PERFORMED VERY STRONG AND THAT'S WHERE A LOT OF THE VOTES ARE GOING TO BE A VERY IMPORTANT AREA IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. IT IS INTERESTING SINCE THESE RESULTS ARE NOW ALMOST FULLY TABULATED, YOU HAVE GOT GINGRICH WINNING A LOT OF THESE FAIRLY RURAL S AREAS IN THE MIDDLE OF E STATE HERE. I BELIEVE THIS ISAL CALLED AN ALLIGATOR ALLEY, SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THERE,O IT PISRETTY CLOSE. I OU WIK LOSOE TLD POINT OUT TTR CANDIDATESHAEDT LLPU IN A FEW VOTES, YOU EVEN HAVE MICHELE BACHMANN PULLING IN 6,000 VOTES, JOHN HUNTSMAN PULLING IN 6,000 VOTES, RICK PERRY AND SO THESE ARE CANDIDATES THAT DROPPED OUT OF THE RACE BUT STILL COLLECTED SOME VOTES. THANLLVO A MD TE ASAID THOSEOE MON ATHGO, O, IAT INTERESTING.

>> AS YOU LOOK AT THE GREEN I SWATH IN THE REINT OUT OF COURSE UL CPOP ATION THERE IS SMALLER, IN THOSE COUNTIES THAIT IN POS DOWN SOUTH WHERE YOU HAVE GOT THE HEAVY CONCENTRATION OF VOTERS DOWN IN THE MIAMI AREA AND OF COURSE MOVING UP AS YOU SAID INTO I 4, ST TUVMENT ROTHENBERG YOU HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE EXIT POLLS, THE INTERVIEWS WITH VOTERS AS THEY LEFT THE POLLING PLACES WHAT DO YOU SEE THERE?

>> IT IS REALLY INTERESTING, JUDY, REALLY, TO REITERATE SOMETHING MARK SAID, THIS WAS ACROSS-THE-BOARD VICTORY FOR ROMNEY, YOU REALLY HAVE TO LOOK HARD FOR PLACES THAT SPEAKER GINGRICH DID WELL. HE DID WELL AMONG THE MOST CONSERVATIVE VOTERS, GINGRICH, AMONG STRONGEST VOTERS OF THE TEA PARTY, WHITE EVANGELICALS. PEOPLE IN NORTH FLORIDA THAT YOU MENTIONED EVERYWHERE ELSE ROMNEY DID WELL, IDEOLOGICALLY, ROMNEY DID WELL AMONG ALMOST A THIRD OF THE VOTERS WHO A SELF DESCRIBED MODERATES OR LIBERALS, HE BEAT GINGRICHE BY 39 POINTS AMONG THAT GROUP AND WHILE ROMNEY BEAT GINGRICH VERY NARROWLY AMONG CONSERVATIVES, AND AS I SAID, GINGRICH DID VERY WELL AMONG STRONG CONSERVATIVES WHEN YOU LOOK AT VOTERS WHO SAID THEY WERE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE, A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF THE SAMPLE, 19-POINT VICTORY FOR MITT ROMNEY, SO ROMNEY IS MAKING SOME INROADS AMONG CONSERVATIVES, NOT THE MOST CONSERVATIVE VOTERS, BUT PEOPLE WHO SAID THEY WERE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE, AND ON RELIGION IS A VARIABLE, 60 PERCENT OF FLORIDA VOTERS HERE SAID THEY WERE NOT WHITE BORN AGAIN CHRISTIANS OR EVANGELICALS AND MITT ROMNEY WON THEM BY 26 POINTS. GINGRICH WON THOSE WHO WERE VANGELICALS BUT JUST BY THREE POINTS, A NARROW WIN AND IN TERMS OF ELECTABILITY, THE QUESTION WAS ASKED WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO DEFEAT BARACK OBAMA, MITT ROMNEY WON AT BY 26 POINTS. AND I THINK IT IS REALLY INTERESTING THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT I'D LODGE, IDEOLOGY AND RELIGION, VOTERS WHO ARE MORE MODERATE, LESS RELIGIOUS, ROMNEY DID WELL WITH THOSE GROUPS, THOSE ARE THE KIND OF PEOPLE WHO WILL BE SWING VOTERS IN A GENERAL ELECTION, THAT'S WHY A LOT OF REPUBLICAN INSIDERS THINK MITT ROMNEY WOULD BE A BETTER GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE THAN SPEAKER GINGRICH.

>> WELL, SPEAKING OF THAT, CHRISTI NA, AS WE LOOK AHEAD, AND YOU LOOK AT TONIGHT'S RESULTS, WHAT DO THEY TELL US ABOUT WHAT ROMNEY'S CHALLENGE AND GINGRICH'S CHALLENGE IS IN THE WEEKS TO COME?

>> SURE. WELL, YOU CAN LOOK AT SORT OF THE CALENDAR AHEAD. THIS IS ONE AREA THAT OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A LOT OF CAUCUSES THAT WILL BE HELD UP AHEAD, BUT IT IS SO INTERESTING THAT GINGRICH SAYS 46 STATES TO GO IN HIS SPEECH BECAUSE TECHNICALLY THAT IS NOT TRUE FOR HIM HE IS NOT ON THE BALLOT IN VIRGINIA WHICH OF NOW IS SLATED TO VOTE ON MARCH 6TH, SUPER TUESDAY AND I THINK THAT THIS MAP SHOWCASES ROMNEY'S ORGANIZATION, WHAT HAPPENED TONIGHT IN FLORIDA SHOWED THAT HE WAS ABLE TO DELIVER A LOT OF THOSE EARLY VOTES, ABSENTEE BALLOTS, THEY HAD A STRONG ORGANIZING PROCESS THERE, THEY ACTUALLY HAD CRAIG, ROMNEY, ONE OF ROMNEY'S SONS WAS GOING TO EARLY VOTING LOW CAKES GETTING OUT THE VOTE FOR HIS DAD OVER THE WEEKEND IN FLORIDA AND SO IT REALLY SHOWCASED THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO PUT THAT TOGETHER AND THE FACT THEY ARE ON ALL OF THE BALLOTS MAKING SURE TO REMIND REPORTERS OF THAT, AS FAR AS ROMNEY'S CHALLENGE, I THINK THIS IS WHAT STU POINTED OUT IS ACCURATE, CONSERVATIVE VOTERS HAVE A BIT OF A PROBLEM BUT AS RICK SANTORUM SAID, NEWT GINGRICH HAD HIS CHANCE, HE IS GOING TO TRY TO MAKE THE CASE HE IS THE ALTERNATIVE TO ROMNEY SO THESE CAUCUS STATES THAT ARE A LOT LESS EXPENSIVE TO COMPETE IN MIGHT BE THE KEY TO KEEP THE RACE GOING ON.

>> STU, WHAT ABOUT THIS QUESTION, THIS POINT OF WHAT THE CANDIDATES, WHAT ARE THE LESSONS THEY CAN TAKE FROM TONIGHT? AND IN PARTICULAR, WE SAW IN THE EXIT POLLS 38 PERCENT OF THE VOTERS SAID THEY WERE NOT SATISFIED WITH THE FIELD. WHAT DOES THAT TELL US?

>> WELL, THAT CERTAINLY COMBINED WITH, I HAVEN'T SEEN THE FINAL NUMBERS IN TERMS OF TURNOUT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WASN'T THE KNOCK YOUR SOCKS OFF KIND OF TURNOUT. THAT SHOWS THAT REALLY REPUBLICANS ARE NOT WILDLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS FIELD, I DO THINK, JUDY, AT THE END OF THE DAY THEY ARE WILDLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT BEATING OBAMA, BUT IT SHOWS THAT MITT ROMNEY, FOR EXAMPLE, IS THE NOMINEE, AND I THINK WE HAVE SAID THIS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO AND I THINK IT IS STILL THE CASE HE IS THE CLEAR FAVORITE FOR NOMINATION, I WOULD ST. IT IS LOCKED UP HE IS CERTAINLY THE FAVORITE HE HAS WORK TO DO IN UNITING THIS PARTY AND CHANGING THE FOCUS AWAY FROM REPUBLICANS ATTACKING REPUBLICANS AND THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN NOW FOR WEEKS, TO A CONTRAST, A CHOICE, A REFERENDUM, ACTUALLY, ON BARACK OBAMA. SO HE HAS GOT SOME WORK TO DO OR THE EVENTUAL REPUBLICAN NOMINEE DOES, WHAT ABOUT THAT CHRISTI.

>> #01:. > ONED THE GENERAL, THE NOVEMBER, WHAT DO WE SEE IN THE FLORIDA NUMBERS THAT INFORM WHAT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT BETWEEN THE REPUBLICAN MOM KNEE AND THE PRESIDENT?

>> WELL, A COUPLE OF THINGS. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A CLOSED REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, SO IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY TELL US ALL THAT MUCH ABOUT FLORIDA'S .ENERALTE ELECTORATE. BARACK OBAMA WON FLORIDA BY FOUR POINTS IN00 2 RA8,THE OBAMA TEAM IN CHICAGOO AT A LTHISS S A VERY CRUCIALTHTLAT BEGROUND STAE AND ALREADY DOING A LOT OFAT ORGANIZING IN THE GI GINGRICH IS TRYING TO MAKE THE NTI ALREADY HE WON THE STMO CONSERVATIVE VOTERS IN THEST PANHANE HODL TLLSE AREN'T TEN NECESSARILY THE VOTERS A THAT GO ARNGOIE GTO WITH BARACK OBAM G NOVR, SO THIS IS WHERE WE SEE ROMNEY HAVING A STRONG ORGANIZATION STATEWIDE, HE DID WELL AMONG LATINO VOTERS, AS WE POINTED OUT EARLIER, THAT IMMIGRATION WAS ACTUALLY NOT A MOTIVATING FACTOR IN THE RACES, SO A LOT TO WATCH FOR.

>> AND, STU, WHAT ABOUT NOVEMBER AND THE LESSONS? IF YOU ARE SITTING AT THE WHITE HOUSE WHAT ARE YOU THINKING?

>> I THINK FOLKS IN THE WHITE HOUSE ARE HAPPY THAT THE REPUBLICAN RACE IS GOING ON INDEFINITELY AND THAT SPEAKER GINGRICH SEEMS TO STILL BE ADOPTING A TAKE NO PRISONERS APPROACH. BUT I THINK YOU HAVE TO SAY THIS IS STILL A VERY COMPETITIVE GENERAL ELECTION, THE PRESIDENT HAS GOTTEN GOOD NEWS OVER THE PAST MONTH, BOTH THE ECONOMIC NEWS AND THE POLLING DATA, THERE IS A SENSE THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE KNOCKING EACH OTHER OFF, BUT ONCE THE REPUBLICANS GET A NOMINEE THIS RACE WILL REFOCUS, IT WILL BECOME A CHOICE BETWEEN THE TWO CANDIDATES, AND THE PRESIDENT NEEDS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT, BETTER UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS TO BE ACCOUNT OF BEING RE-ELECTED, I THINK WE ARE HEADING FOR A VERY COMPETITIVE RACE.

>> AND WE HAVE 46 STATES TO GO AS I THINK SOMEBODY POINTED OUT A MINUTE AGO.

>> ALL RIGHT. I THINK IT WAS NEWT GINGRICH. STU ROTHENBERG, KRISTINA BELL TONY, THANK YOU BOTH. GWEN OVER TO YOU.

>> WE WILL RECAP THE VOTE TONIGHT IN FLORIDA. ROMNEY WON BIG WITH 46 PERCENT OF THE VOTE, 32 PERCENT FOR NEWT GINGRICH, RICK SANTORUM FORM CAME IN A DISTANT THIRD FOLLOWED BY RON PAUL IN SINGLE DIGITS. SOME CLOSING THOUGHTS NOW FROM MARK SHIELDS AND DAVID BROOKS. RON PAUL, FOURTH NOW IN SOUTH CAROLINA, FOURTH IN FLORIDA, HE IS STILL CAMPAIGNING AND IN NEVADA THIS WEEK. WHAT HAPPENS WITH HIM?

>> I THINK CAUCUS STATES ARE RON PAUL'S HOPE. CAUCUS STATES, THE PREMIUM IS UPON IDEOLOGICAL CONVICTION AND ORGANIZATIONAL EXCELLENCE, AND THAT IS SORT OF AN INTENSE COALITION OF SUPPORT CAN REALLY REFLECT AND ALMOST MAGNIFY. I THINK RON PAUL IN NEVADA AND, MAINE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TOUGH TERRITORY FOR HIM BUT I THINK THAT IS THE ROOT FOR HIM AT THIS POINT.

>> LET'S LOOK AT THIS MAP, BECAUSE AS YOU LOOK AT THE ROOT, WE ARE LOOKING AT A ROOT THAT TAKES US THROUGH SOME INTERESTING STATES BUT NOT A CLEAR PATH THROUGH ANY ONE EXCEPT FOR MITT ROMNEY EXCEPT FOR WHATEVER MEASURES WE HAVE AT HAND.

>> IF WE ASSUME GINGRICH DOES BETTER AT THE SOUTH, THE COMING STATES ARE NOT THAT KIND OF STATE SO YOU JUST HAVE TO --

>> AND THE STATES WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ARE NEVADA AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT MINNESOTA AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT ARIZONA AND MICHIGAN.

>> YES. COLORADO.

>> COLORADO AND MINNESOTA, AND NEVADA ARE ALL CAUCUS STATES, AND MITT ROMNEY DID VERY WELL IN ALL THREE IN 2008. BUT REMEMBER THEN HE WAS THE CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE, AND THOSE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN PARTIES. I MEAN SO HE IS NOT -- WHAT IS THE PEJORATIVE NEWT GINGRICH USES MASSACHUSETTS MODERATE THAT IS LONG WAY FROM SAN FRANCISCO DEMOCRAT BUT SENATE THE EPITAPH AMONG REPUBLICANS SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ROM MY IS THE MODERATE, THE MODERATE CAN BE AS EFFECTIVE IN ORGANIZING.

>> BUT GINGRICH NEEDS TO HAVE AN ORGANIZATION AND WE WILL SEE IF HE HAS THAT. HE MAY GET A LITTLE PUSH AS HE DID IN FLORIDA BY ATTACKING THE ELITE MEDIA THAT SEEMS TO WORK FOR HIM, THAT IS BAD NEWS FOR MARK IF HE GOES AFTER THAT --

>> NOT YOU, OF COURSE.

>> NOT ME, I AM WITH THE PEOPLE.

>> ME AND SOLINSKI.

>> TOGETHER.

>> SO WHAT WERE THE THINGS THAT MYSTIFIES ME ABOUT THE GINGRICH CAMPAIGN THEY HAVEN'T REALLY BE ESTABLISHED A SUBSTANTIVE DIFFERENCE, YOU CAN CALL HIM A MASSACHUSETTS MODERATE BUT THEY HAVEN'T REALLY GONE AFTER THE FLIP FLOPPER LIKE I THOUGHT THEY MIGHT WITH A LOT OF CLIPS WHEN ROMNEY WAS TAKING ON A MUCH MORE SOCIALLY LIBERAL POSITION WHEN RUNNING AGAINST TED KENNEDY, THE DNC RANSOM VERY DEVASTATING WEB ADS BUT GINGRICH HASN'T DONE THAT, I DON'T KNOW IF IT DOESN'T POLL WELL OR --

>> DO YOU THINK THEY ARE POLLING?

>> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION, A GOOD QUESTION.

>> I WONDER, HOWEVER, WE ARE GOING TO SEE AS WE GO GUARD A DISCUSSION THAT GOES PAST THE TWO OF THEM SAYING YOU ARE A BAD GUY AND GOES TO IN A TIME OF ECONOMIC STRESS A MORE SUBSTANTIVE ARGUMENT?

>> I REALLY DO THINK THAT WHAT ROMNEY ACCOMPLISHED TONIGHT IN FLORIDA IS IMPRESSIVE, THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES BUT HE HAS MADE THE CASE AS HE MADE TO FLORIDA VOTERS WHY NEWT GINGRICH SHOULD NOT BE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, NOT WHY HE SHOULD BE AND I THINK THAT IS STILL A VERY MUCH OF AN --

>> DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

>> I HAVE TO REMEMBER THEY ARE RUNNING ON FUMES RIGHT NOW. IT HAS BEEN A DEVASTATING MONTH FOR ALL OF THEM DAY TO DAY, AND NOW IT SPREADS OUT A LITTLE AND MAYBE TAKE SOME STEPS BACK AND DO SOMETHING THAT IS NOT JUST RESPONDING TO THE NEWS OF THE MINUTE, AND HE HAS SOME OPPORTUNITY TO DO THAT. I MUST SAY, THOUGH, SO FAR THE STRATEGY IS DON'T PIN MYSELF DOWN, TELL THE COUNTRY HOW MUCH THE I LOVE AMERICA AND DRIVING THROUGH THE NATIONAL PARKS AND I KNOW SEVERAL VERSES OF THE STAR-SPANGLED BANNER.

>> HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO BE PURPOSEFULLY VAGUE.

>> YOU PROBABLY DON'T KNOW THE FOURTH STANZA.

>> AND SO MITT'S STRATEGY SO FAR BUT I AGREE WITH MARK YOU HAVE TO GIVE A LITTLE SUBSTANCE.

>> SO THIS MOMENTUM, UP UNTIL TONIGHT, SOMEBODY DIFFERENT HAS WON EACH OF THE MAJOR PRIMARIES AND NOW WE FINALLY HAVE ONE GUY THAT GOT TWO. DOES THIS MEAN -- IS IT TOO SOON AS WE START TO COUNT DELEGATES AND NOSES INSTEAD OF JUST VOTES, IS IT TOO SOON TO SAY, AH, DONE?

>> WELL, I THOUGHT IT WAS DONE SIX MONTHS AGO AND I STILL SORT OF THINK THE ODDS GREATLY FAVOR.

>> ONE OF THE WILD CARDS IS THE BIG DONOR FOR SUPPORTING NEWT GINGRICH'S PAC, WHAT DOES HE THINK?

>> HE SAYS OKAY I INVESTED A LOT OF MONEY, MAYBE IT IS TIME TO CUT THAT OFF? IF HE MAKES THAT CALL THAT WOULD HAVE HUGE EFFECTS ON THE RACE NOT THE LEAST IS SANTORUM CAMPAIGN WHICH BECOMES A MORE PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATIVE.

>> THIS HAS BEEN A YEAR OF SURPRISES AND NO REASON TO THINK THE SURPRISES WILL SON. NEWT GINGRICH FINISHED FOURTH IN IOWA, FIFTH IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND HE WON SOUTH CAROLINA. I MEAN, THAT IS UNHEARD OF, UNPRECEDENTED AND PARTLY HE WAS ABLE TO DO IT BECAUSE OF SHELDON ED SON AND, THE INDIVIDUALS CAN GIVE AS MUCH AS THEY WANT, AND ARE INTO THE MONEY LIKE IT HAS NEVER BEEN BEFORE IN AMERICAN POLITICS.

>> BEFORE MITT ROMNEY CAME UNDER SOME SORT OF ASSAULT HE WAS TURNING ALL OF HIS FIREPOWER ON BARACK OBAMA, IS THAT WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE HAPPENING NOW THAT HE FEELS, IF HE FEELS HE DISPATCHED NEWT GINGRICH?

>> YES AND I THINK YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL WHEN HE IS COMPLETELY CONFIDENT, THAT HE HAS WON THE NOMINATION WHEN HE STOPS USING THE LINE HE IS A EUROPEAN SOCIALIST, AND GOES BACK TO THE LINE, HE IS A GOOD GUY WHO IS OVER HIS HEAD. THAT IS THE REAL GENERAL ELECTION MESSAGE, BUT RIGHT NOW HE IS HITTING THE MORE IDEOLOGICAL, HE IS A SOCIALIST AND A EUROPEAN.

>> YES. I MEAN, WHEN HE USES THE PRESIDENT'S NAME AND SOL LEWINSKY IN THE SAME PARAGRAPH IT IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT HE IS TALKING NOT TO THE NATION, HE IS TALKING TO REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS AND THE PARTICULAR SUB SET --

>> NOT THAT ANYBODY WHO KNOWS WHO SOL LOUIE SKI, LEWINSKY IS.

>> AND THE PRESIDENT AND THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN HAVE NEVER TAKEN THEIR EYES OFF OF MITT ROMNEY, THEY HAVE NEVER EVEN TRIED TO LAUNCH AND ATTACK ON NEWT GINGRICH SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THAT AFTER NIGHT. MARK SHIELDS, DAVID BROOKS, THANK YOU, GENTLEMEN, VERY MUCH.

>> THANK YOU.

>> BACK TO YOU, JUDY.

>> THANK YOU, GWEN.

>> AND WITH THAT WE DO END THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF THE PBS NEWS HOUR ON THE FLORIDA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. I AM JUDY WOODRUFF IN TAMPA, AND I AM GWEN IFILL ON THE NEWS HOURS.

>> WE WILL SEE YOU ON LINE TONIGHT WHERE YOU CAN CHECK OUR INTERACTIVE MAP ALL NIGHT FOR TOTALS. PLUS VIDEO OF THE CAMPAIGN SPEECHES. ALL OF THAT ON OUR WEB SITE. THANK YOU. AND GOOD NIGHT. AND... THIS PROGRAM WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING. AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU. THANK YOU. Captioning sponsored by MacNEIL/LEHRER PRODUCTIONS Captioned by Media Access Group at WGBH access.wgbh.org