The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; Moslem Opposition in Iran

JIM LEHRER: After five days of demonstrations, violence and death in the streets of Iran, the question is, what next for this oil-rich, proWest nation in the Near East, and for the man in charge, the Shah of Iran? Good evening. Five more people died today in Iran as army troops enforcing martial law clashed again with demonstrators seeking the ouster of the Shah and his government. The death toll since riots erupted last week is now officially near 100, and official sources say many more than that have died. President Carter took time out from his summitry at Camp David yesterday to call the Shah to express his regret over the loss of life and his hope that the Shah`s liberalization programs would continue.

The United States, for reasons of oil and Persian Gulf strategy, has close ties with Iran. It was during the Shah`s trip to the United States last November, in fact, that most Americans first became aware of internal opposition to the Shah`s regime. There were angry demonstrations near the White House and elsewhere in Washington; several police and Iranian exchange students were injured. Robert MacNeil and I interviewed the Shah then, and we asked him about the demonstrations against him.

(November 14, 1977.)

SHAH of IRAN:..I think that if you go and inquire about the nature of those who demonstrate against, you would find that they are mostly Marxists, anarchists, wearing masks...

LEHRER: Whatever their background and their organization, the things that they are charging against you and your government fall in this area of human rights, and particularly in the area of squelching political dissent. So my question is this: are there 100,000 political prisoners now in Iranian jails, as they charge?

SHAH: There are 2,200.

LEHRER: What are their crimes? What are these 2,200?

SHAH: Mostly terrorists; and all of them Marxists.

LEHRER; That was ten months ago. Since then leftists have been joined by the conservative leaders of the Moslem religion in Iran. Tonight, a look at what`s happening in Iran and why, and what the end result may be. Robert MacNeil is off tonight; Charlayne Hunter-Gault is in New York. Charlayne?

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: The vigorous opposition to the Shah and his government includes, as you said, Jim, both Moslem conservatives and left- wing dissidents. One man who has studied the relationship of the Islamic religion to Arab politics is Hamid Algar, a professor of Near Eastern studies at the University of California at Berkeley. Professor Algar converted to Islam while studying for his Ph.D. in Islamic studies at Cambridge. He is with us in Public TV Station KCET in Los Angeles. Professor Algar, where is the impetus for these demonstrations coming from?

HAMID ALGAR: Well, before I answer your question, I would like to clarify that my presence here is not because I am a Muslim by conversion; this is of relatively no interest in the present context. What is of interest is to clarify on this rare occasion the nature of the Islamic movement in Iran that is threatening the government of the Shah.

HUNTER-GAULT: Thank you. Could you give us some insight initially into where you think the impetus for the demonstration is coming from? We`ll get to the other question later.

ALGAR: The impetus for the demonstrations comes from the long-standing struggle of the Iranian Muslim people against the dictatorship of the present Shah and his father, that have never been able to build an indigenous political base and have remained in power only through foreign support, notably United States support, over the past quarter of a century. Beyond that, the opposition of the overwhelming religious element in the Iranian opposition to the Shah has very deep historical and even theological roots. It is always mentioned in the Western media that the title of the Shah is Shah-an Shah, the king of kings; and the very prophet Muhammad himself, in one of his sayings, said that the ugliest of titles in the sight of God is precisely that title, the title of king of kings. More particularly, within the Shi`i school of Islam, that which is predominant in Iran and is professed by over ninety percent of the people, it is held that political authority cannot legitimately be exercised by a monarch, by a secular monarch; that in the absence of the divinely appointed imam the rule should be exercised on a consultative basis by representatives of the community, including those among them who are learned in religion. And we see in fact an extremely long tradition of Muslim op position -- that is to say, popular opposition -- to monarchical tyranny which far goes back beyond the rule of the present dynasty, which is a mere half a century.

HUNTER-GAULT: I see. Does the....

ALGAR: I would like -- if I can just complete this remark, the introductory observation was made that in recent months Muslims have joined the leftist opposition in Iran. In reality the entire oppositional movement in Iran, in its overwhelming bulk, has been with them from the very inception, and the leftist -- or even liberal intellectual groups -- of Tehran have been relative latecomers to the movement.

HUNTER-GAULT: I see. The Shah said in an interview today with Barbara Walters that the last demonstration -- I believe that was last Thursday -- was completely organized and controlled by international subversive organizations. Is that right?

ALGAR: Oh, this is an absurdity, like every other lie of the Iranian regime that is taken out and propagated as truth by the Western media. I don`t know if the Shah and those around him imagine that since he himself is held in power and is guided and directed in all his actions, including the most recent massacre, by the United States, therefore the opposition has also to be guided and directed and financed from the outside. There is no shred of evidence whatsoever to justify this.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, thank you. We`ll pursue some of those

points in a few minutes. Jim?

LEHRER: Now for a very different view of the opposition to the Shah, from Alvin Cottrell, a long-time student of the military and political history of Iran. He knows the Shah well personally and has written a book on the rule of Iran by the Shah and his family. How would you characterize the opposition to the Shah?

ALVIN COTTRELL: Well, I think I would characterize the opposition to the Shah as being one against the type of rule the Shah has; I think the religious issue is an issue which does not relate closely to monarchical, or what is referred to as dictatorship, which as I say is a very bad term to use in this part of the world. I think that dictatorship is an American term; most countries out there have what we could call non-democratic forms of rule. But I would only say that I think that the issue here is not the form of rule, it is really an issue of being against change in Iran. But liberalization and modernization which the Shah seeks is, I think, really the issue, and I think it has very little to do with the form of governments that we will get, or which the religious element really wants.

LEHRER: You heard what Mr. Algar just said, that the Shah has charged that the demonstrations in the last several days have been organized by outside forces is absurd. Do you agree with the Shah, or do you agree with Mr. Algar?

COTTRELL: Well, I think I can explain what I think about it; I think there is some large element of outside influence in these demonstrations. I think there`s no question that people like Qaddafi are involved in these things.

LEHRER: That`s the head of Libya.

COTTRELL: It may be he`s involved in this; his money`s involved in many things, even non-Arabic causes like ULSTRA, by the way. And I think he`s in this and the Soviets obviously have got something in this thing.

So I don`t think there`s any question about that. There is a real religious issue, and these extremist elements -- I hate to characterize them as lefts or rights; I don`t think that has any meaning out there -- these elements are hitching themselves to the only issue which you can make a case on, is the religious issue, which is a very real issue that relates to the modernization of the country. And may I say...

LEHRER: Give me an example of what, from your point of view, you mean by modernization and how the Moslems would object to that.

COTTRELL: Well, the effort to change the whole society, I mean, to change the values which the religious element has; even people who are going to schools and all, the women`s position in society -- all these things are issues that are opposed by the religious elements. I think the influx of foreigners -- all these things are involved -- movie theatres we see are involved in this. The effort to get the society ahead. And may I say whatever the regime is going to be, it will not be able to stop the liberalization and modernization of Iran program; if the religious element comes to power, it will be in fact, in my opinion, it will still have to be supported by something more than by religious values, it will have to be supported by a military force which will accept it.

But what I guess I am coming to is that I do not think that anybody can prevent the further effort to liberalize and modernize the Iranian (unintelligible). This issue of modernization is not just one that affects Iran; I think it affects all countries, even Saudi Arabia a little. But they have not tried to liberalize so fast.

LEHRER: Do you agree the Shah, as someone said, tried to go too quickly?

COTTRELL: Not necessarily. He has a different problem. He has thirty-five million people, over three percent per annum growth; they have 300,000 workers they have to get jobs for every year -- additional workers. He has twenty-five or thirty years of oil left; he will have sixty million people by the end of this century. He cannot slow this thing down, and whoever comes to power will be committed to the same program.

LEHRER: All right; thank you. Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: Now for the views of a member of the left-wing opposition. He is Ahmad Karimi, a poet, and member of the Committee for Artistic and Intellectual Freedom in Iran. Mr. Karimi taught at the University of Tehran until he was dismissed in 1973 for raking part in dissident poetry readings. He is also a member of the Writers` Association of Iran, a semi- legal group of dissident writers. Mr. Karimi, what is your view on why these demonstrations have erupted now?

AHMAD KARIMI: Yes; let me preface it by saying that I never thought anyone could outshah the Shah, but apparently Mr. Cottrell has done so.

HUNTER-GAULT: Okay, we`ll get to some of Mr. Cottrell`s criticisms in just a moment, but let`s take this first question and pursue that for a minute-- your view on why the demonstrations have peaked.

KARIMI: There`s a complex of political, economic and social reason for the situation in which Iran finds itself today. Politically, ever since the 1953 coup and the Shah`s return to power, he really has never been able to establish his legitimacy with his people, and as such he has been forced -- and encouraged, of course, by his patrons -- to create a secret police, which in time became one of the most ruthless underground subversive organizations that ever exists today in the world. Economically, his agricultural program has brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy; Iran, which was agriculturally self-sufficient, relatively speaking, in the early 1960s, in 1973 had to import ninety-three percent of its foodstuff from outside the country. Industrialization, which the Shah interprets as his own personal ownership of many of the factories, again has created tremendous problems; since 1973 and the oil price rise there have been explosive economic dislocations in the country, with the farmers being forced to the cities, creating huge ghettos in the outskirts of every Iranian city....

HUNTER-GAULT: So you`re saying that all of these things have come together just at this point...

KARIMI: Exactly.

HUNTER-GAULT: ...and have caused these demonstrations.

KARIMI: Yes.

HUNTER-GAULT: What do you say about the Shah`s statement that this was all organized by outside international subversive organizations?

KARIMI: I could not have said it any better than Professor Algar, who said that the Shah perceives everything in his own image. He has had to rely on the Americans and the Westerners, not as partners, not as friends, but as masters controlling his people, controlling his country.

HUNTER-GAULT: So do you disagree with that statement?

KARIMI: Definitely.

HUNTER-GAULT: Who are the leaders of the Moslem opposition?

KARIMI: The leaders of the Moslem opposition are a group of intellectual religious leaders who have throughout the history played a very important role in, in fact, the economic and social well-being of the country. Ayatollah Khomeini, the exiled religious leader of the religious movement, has said -- and this, I think, is a suitable answer to Mr. Cottrell`s part...

HUNTER-GAULT: Can you capsulize it for us?

KARIMI: I will just give it in one sentence. He said, "In all my proclamations to the Iranian people over the past fifteen years I have always called strongly for economic and social development in my country, but the Shah, implementing the imperialist policies, strives to keep Iran in a backward state; his regime is dictatorial."

HUNTER-GAULT: Is it correct for me to assume that you feel this is the principal reason for opposition to the Shah?

KARIMI: Well, yes; in the context of Iranian history, religion provides the most lasting set of values around which people tend to rally in times of crisis, and that-is why--this movement has a predominantly religious cast.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, we`ll come back; thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: A final perspective now from an American expert on Iran and its politics. He is James Bill, professor of government and Associate Director of the Center for Mideast Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. He`s the author of a book on Iranian politics. Dr. Bill, what has brought Iran to the boiling point right now, from your point of view?

JAMES BILL: Well, from my point of view I think it`s much more complex than any of the three speakers have indicated yet tonight. I would say that the Shah has been around for almost forty years; he`s the last of five major absolute monarchs in the world. I think some of the opposition tends to underestimate the man`s ability and political shrewdness and acumen. I think at the same time perhaps people like Dr. Cottrell tend to overemphasize his commitment to change and his success.

I think that what has happened in Iran is it`s much more involved than a few fanatic religious leaders, a few religious students, it`s much more involved than a few leftist Marxists, as the American newspapers would have us believe. I think that there is an entire middle class in Iran that is very, very much concerned about this kind of authoritarian rule; and they have grievances and they have gripes, and these grievances and gripes are printed today in the Persian press. That is, the government today admits and recognizes the problems that they face. Let me just list a few of these problems for you. Number one, political participation. The middle classes - - that is, the professional salaried group, the intellectuals, the students, the teachers, the doctors, the lawyers -- have been educated, many of them, in the West. They want to have some say over their own destiny, and they cry for political participation. Secondly, there is the...

LEHRER: That`s not an ideological or religious thing, is what you`re saying.

BILL: No, not at all. I think the religious leaders are there, the ideologues are involved, but there are a number of deep social and political problems that are confronting that society today in a very, very real way. Political participation, number one. Number two, the system of justice in Iran. The lawyers have played an important part, I think, over the last year and a half in many of the demonstrations. Something needs to be done in terms of an equitable system of justice. Health and education. The health and educational systems in Iran have a long way to go, and the Group for the Study of Iranian Social Problems, which is a group sponsored by the royal court, has admitted that again and again, that "our educational system is fourth-rate, fifth-rate; we have to improve the quality there." Yet very little has been done. What about the business of freedom of expression and freedom of speech and freedom of press? That`s come very late; it`s come in the last year and a half, with this liberalization process that began to be instituted in 1977. This is a concern as well. And finally, let me just mention that the religious leaders also do have a gripe, that there has been an attempt, I think, to crush and crunch the religious leaders in the society; and in a society in which well over ninety percent of the people are practicing Shi`i Muslims, it`s impossible to do.

LEHRER: What are the realistic options open to the Shah right now to cool this thing off?

BILL: I don`t believe that the Shah of Iran can turn the clocks of time backward; I don`t believe he can fight the forces of change. I believe now that the only real alternative is opening up the system fully. If you try to wind it back and govern by soldiers and martial law in Iran indefinitely, blood will continue to run in the streets.I think that now what the Iranian government needs to do is to move ahead with its process of liberalization that has begun, to try and meet with some of the opposition leaders, to try and bring them into a government and do something about general political participation.

LEHRER: All right; thank you. Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: Professor Algar, Mr. Cottrell says your movement is being paid for by the Soviets and Qaddafi.

ALGAR: This is a total absurdity, which of course one has come to expect from the paid and unpaid propagators of the Iranian government line; unfortunately, some of them occupy positions in academic institutions even, although they might better belong elsewhere. There is no evidence whatsoever for any support extended by Libya, Iraq or the Soviet Union to the Iranian opposition.

HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Cottrell...

ALGAR: If I can just expand on this point, it seems to me extremely remarkable that a demonstration estimated by the Iranian press itself of between one and a half and two million people last Monday should come out in the streets in the face of the danger of being met by the Shah`s U.S. and British-supplied tanks and machine guns, all on the instigation of a foreign power. What kind of country is this where two million people will risk their lives in the face of overwhelming firepower for the sake of a foreign power? This is an absurdity.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, let`s ask Mr. Cottrell. What is your evidence, Mr. Cottrell?

COTTRELL: I say only that they`re obviously involved in this, as they`ve been involved all over the Persian Gulf, Qaddafi and the Soviets and the Iraqis, in these situations. There`s no question about this involvement. We know that these (unintelligible) existed throughout the whole Persian Gulf region, and there`s no doubt that they exist now. Nobody said that they paid for the whole issue or paid for all these demonstrations; that was not the point. The point is they`re involved in it. There is a real religious issue. I still contend, however, that the real issue is fighting against change and this liberalization question, and that the leftists and rightists, if you want to use these terms, which have no meaning out there, are hitching themselves to the religious issue.

HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Karimi, is that true?

KARIMI: That`s nonsense, because modernization now -- Mr. Lehrer pointed out -- what are we to think of when we use the word modernization? If modernization means more jobs, if modernization means a better life, if modernization means a higher standard of living, which rational human being could b e against it? However, the Shah`s modernization has meant corruption, it has meant widespread foreign influence, it has meant a capitulation to foreign powers, and it has brought the country to the place where the government and the people have nothing to talk about; they talk past each other instead of to each other.

HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Cottrell, what what do you have to say about that?

COTTRELL: I think that`s as absurd as he accuses me of being. I mean, none of that is, in my opinion, true. There are more jobs being created. What they`re asking is that somehow this be a perfect situation in the short time this effort has been undertaken. Sure, there are errors. May I say that the Shah himself anticipated there would be many such problems in this modernization program. And he has said that to me when I have talked with him. They didn`t doubt that these things would occur.

HUNTER-GAULT: Dr. Bill, what`s your analysis of that?

BILL: I think we have to begin with the domestic social and political problems, begin analysis there. I think that the Iranian people are a fascinating kind of people; I think that they`re a gracious people, an intelligent people, a sensitive people, a hospitable people. There`s one area in which they haven`t excelled, though, and that`s in the area of politics. And I think what`s going on in Iran right now is a pretty good indication that the Iranians are trying to come to grips with this problem of politics.

HUNTER-GAUL"": Professor Algar, in terms of the liberalization, are women, for example, going to have a new role? When he talks about being against modernization, what about women, what about civil liberties and civil rights?

ALGAR: This whole question of liberalization is one of the absurd propaganda lines put out by the Iranian regime and unfortunately repeated on this program, not only by Mr. Cottrell but also by Professor Bill.

The only thing that the Iranian regime is liberal with is the bullets which it fires into the bodies of unarmed demonstrators -- men, women and children -- over 4,500 of whom at the very minimum were buried in Tehran last Saturday. Where is this liberalization? Yes, so-called fourteen political parties were formed recently in Tehran, but just the other day we found 1,000 members of the opposition, including many of the founders of these parties, being arrested without any pretense of trial, without any demonstration that they had any links whatsoever with the events that were taking place.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, let`s get Mr. Cottrell to respond briefly to that. Mr. Cottrell.

COTTRELL: I was just wondering, what was that figure of dead that was buried?

ALGAR: The figure that has been telephoned to us from sources in Tehran is that 4,500 burial certificates were issued for the burial of corpses in the Behesht-e Zarah Cemetery in Tehran. When you visit the Shah, I don`t suppose you get to that part of town; you wouldn`t know where it is. This is the main...

COTTRELL: Well, I`ve been to that part of town.

ALGAR: ...cemetery.

COTTRELL: But you haven`t got any evidence to support it at all; none whatsoever. And I don`t believe it, frankly, no.

HUNTER-GAULT: I`m sorry, we have to move on. Jim?

LEHRER: Finally, Mr. Cottrell, what do you think the likelihood that the Shah can withstand...

COTTRELL: I think he will withstand it. I think that he`s been through some very troubled periods in that country and I think that the chances are very good that he will withstand this. I would assume he is going to do so.

LEHRER: Mr. Karimi?

KARIMI: Yes; I think if our prediction in this situation is going to be any measure of the validity of the sides of the issue we`re presenting here, I would welcome that...

LEHRER: I beg your pardon, sir. What are you saying?

KARIMI: What I`m saying is Mr. Cottrell`s prediction right now would perhaps be as good as his other opinions, and the facts that he has tried to present. I think the Shah is in serious trouble; I think that he has to go now. When this will happen depends on the situation as it develops immediately. He has placed himself in an impossible bind, because on the one hand he has promised free elections, on the other hand he has usurped all power in his own hands.

LEHRER: So you think eventually it`s just a matter of time, is that right?

KARIMI: Absolutely

LEHRER: Mr. Algar, do you agree with that?

ALGAR: Definitely. It`s entirely a matter of time. One of the slogans that was raised in the recent demonstrations in Tehran was, "Ta marg-e shah-e khaen nehzat edameh darad``. "Until the death of the treacherous Shah, the struggle will continue. And this is a short statement of the matter.

LEHRER: Dr. Bill, what do you think?

BILL: I guess I would agree that the Shah is in very deep trouble indeed. He may -- in my opinion, at least -- ride out the next few weeks, but coming down the road he has challenges that are going to be much deeper. For example, the holy month of Moharram will be during our December; this is a very holy month, emotional month, for practicing Shi`is. He`s got the question of students going back to universities talking about free elections. I think he`s going to have to make a substantial change in his policy if he hopes to survive. You know, absolute monarchies are what I would call sort of the whooping cranes of political systems, and I think the Shah -- as he himself said not too long ago -- he said national survival is at stake today. As far as I`m concerned, he`s talking about his own survival.

LEHRER: All right. Mr. Algar in Los Angeles, thank you. Mr. Karimi in New York, thank you; gentlemen here. Good night, Charlayne.

HUNTER-GAULT: Good night, Jim.

LEHRER: We`ll see you tomorrow night. I`m Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.