The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; 7196; Post-El Salvador Elections

ROBERT MacNEIL: Good evening. The Reagan administration today cheered the heavy turnout in yesterday's El Salvador election as an undeniable repudiation of the left-wing guerrillas. Secretary of State Alexander Haig said the heavy voting by Salvadorans in defiance of leftist intimidation was a military as well as a political defeat for the guerrillas. The sight of Salvadoran voters queuing up in the hot sun despite the sound of gun battles clearly audible impressed American and foreign observers. Early returns today show that the Christian Democratic Party of American-backed junta President Napoleon Duarte has a slight edge over the ARENA Party of extreme right-wing leader Roberto D'Aubuission. Spokesmen for both Duarte's party and D'Aubuisson were already talking of forming coalition governments. Secretary Haig said he was confident that the new constituent assembly elected yesterday would find ways to be conciliatory to the guerrillas. Tonight, who wins in El Salvador's heavy voting? Jim?

JIM LEHRER: Robin, the elections in El Salvador have drawn almost as much attention here as the New Hampshire primary or some comparable U.S. electoral event. As a result, many members of Congress expressed a variety of opinions going in, particularly on the question of U.S. support for President Duarte's junta. Two of the most outspoken are with us now, two with very different views of what's happening in El Salvador and the Reagan administration's policy concerning it. They are Congressman Robert Dornan, Republican of California, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, a supporter of administration policy who has made two trips to El Salvador in the past year, and Congressman Gerry Studds, Democrat of Massachusetts, member of the House Subcommittee on Inter-American Affairs, an outspoken critic of Reagan policy. Congressman Dornan, first to you. How do you interpret what happened yesterday in El Salvador?

Rep. ROBERT DORNAN: Well, I think that words can't express for the whole world how beautiful it is to see people opting for the ultimate symbol of democracy -- going in and casting a secret ballot. I think to brave gunfire, to literally hear the gunfire within the neighborhood and to still queue up the way they did -- I think it was best said by Father Hesburgh, who was an observer for the United States down there: "The people are voting for democracy against violence." And as Senator Kassebaum said, we hardly do it this way in the United States -- standing in line for 5 1/2 hours and braving death for that right to participate in a tiny way in the democratic process of choosing a government.

LEHRER: Did this surprise you and others who had watched El Salvador so closely, even those with the point of view that you have?

Rep. DORNAN: I knew the people would turn out, but not in these numbers, and not in the neighborhoods where there was literal firefighting going on. That pleasingly shocked me. I just spoke to Ambassador Hinton down there, within the hour, and I told him I was proud of his interview on one of the network shows this morning, 'cause he was tough; he called the guerrillas what they are -- terrorist thugs -- and he said, "Oh, forget me. I'm proud of these people. Everybody should be. They're remarkable." And I felt a sense of proud shock even on his part that these simple people -- where half the nation is under 15 years of age -- have turned out to make a bid for a future free of violence.

LEHRER: Do you see it as a repudiation of the left and of guerrilla actions?

Rep. DORNAN: I see it more as a repudiation of the left's violence because most of the left are naive campesinos. Let's say there are 4,000 guerrillas; one of the military attaches down there made a compelling case that there might be only 3,000. I would say probably half of those are peasant kids, 13 to 18 -- same as the Viet Cong in another part of the world -- and that if they came back in, everybody would forgive and forget. It's the hardcore Marxist-Leninist leadership that would never have an election, that will never allow an election in Nicaragua, in Cuba, or a really free, contested election in the Soviet Union. Those bastardos, as you'd call them down there, they're interested in killing and total power, and they're no different than a military dictator like Somoza.

LEHRER: So, in other words, what you're saying is that the people were voting for peace over violence, not necessarily right over left, or whatever?

Rep. DORNAN: Right. To begin again what they lost in '31, and what was lost in 1972 when a Notre Dame graduate named Duarte was kidnapped, taken to Guatemala and beaten severely. And at dinner with him the other night his wife told me to take his hand and feel the wounds he carries in his bone structure on both sides of his face where there are holes and where they caved in his face. And I asked him, "What were they saying when they were torturing you?" And he said, "Not much; they were just saying, 'You won the election.'" And kept beating him unconscious. So I think he's courageous. I think our embassy's doing a great job, and I think history has really taken a turn for the better in Central America.

LEHRER: Thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: Congressman Studds, how do you react to the voting?

Rep. GERRY STUDDS: Well, before Congressman Dornan and I go our separate ways, let me astonish both you and him by agreeing with at least one thing he said. I think all of us, regardless of our own views here, were taken aback by the magnitude of the turnout, and I would interpret it much as I understand Congressman Dornan to interpret it. It seems to me that the people of El Salvador, quite apart from their own political affiliation or lack of it, voted overwhelmingly for non-violence. It seems to me that they opted to express themselves, at least at this point in time, in the only non-violent way that they had to and participate in the political process. Beyond that I doubt that we'll agree on very much.

MacNEIL: Well, for instance, Secretary Haig said, as I quoted in the beginning, that this was an undeniable repudiation of the guerrillas. Do you agree with that?

Rep. STUDDS: No. Well, I don't know. None of us can tell that. The guerrillas, obviously, and the forces they represent were not participating in the election, so it's difficult to tell about that. I hope -- all of us, I'm sure, hope for the best, but I do not suspect it's likely to occur. While it is true, for example, that Mr. Duarte appears to be gleaning somewhere between 39-41 percent of the vote, what is also true is that the number-two party, that of Major D'Aubuisson, and the number-three party, which is the party of the military, which was thrown out in the 1979 coup, combined have a substantially higher percentage than that of Mr. Duarte. The possibilities for coalition-forming are pretty awesome in any government in El Salvador which contains in it Mr. D'Aubuisson and what he represents. If Ambassador Hinton thinks that the leftists are violent thugs, I shudder to think what kinds of terms we're going to have to find to describe these people who together may in fact comprise something very close to a majority of the new assembly. The real question, of course, is, will the elections contribute to ending the violence and moving towards some kind of a political solution?

MacNEIL: Does the result change your view of administration policy toward El Salvador?

Rep. STUDDS: No. Not at all. The elections, in my view, might well have had greater meaning if a broader composition of the forces of the country were participating. Rightly or wrongly, as we now all know, the left chose not to participate. I for one can understand their lack of enthusiasm, given the fact that their entire leadership was on a list marked for murder in the event that they were to participate in the election.

MacNEIL: I see. Does it encourage you to vote for a continued -- when the Congress gives you an opportunity to vote for continued American aid to El Salvador?

Rep. STUDDS: No, I don't think it makes a case to continue American military assistance. I must say that I'm going to look with some interest -- we all are, obviously -- at what kinds of coalition-forming come out of these elections when the results are clear, but the armed forces of El Salvador today are the same armed forces which were in El Salvador yesterday and last year. These are the armed forces which killed many a thousand non-combattant civilian in the course of the last few years. They are the same armed forces who captured and tortured Mr. Duarte as described by Congressman Dornan. I doubt seriously that they have changed, and I doubt very seriously if their absolute opposition to any kind of negotiated solution is going to change as well. I hope to heaven that it does, and if they were to change their attitude miraculously, and to begin to respect the human rights of their own people, then it seems to me that it might indeed make sense to reconsider the possibility of a closer American relationship. In fact, although this administration has ignored it, current United States law prohibits military assistance unless and until those armed forces change their attitude.

MacNEIL: Well, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Now to a second pair of rhetorical combattants on El Salvador, both Latin American experts from different non-profit research groups based in Washington. They're Richard Araujo, a Latin American policy analyst for the Heritage Foundation. He spent three years in El Salvador as a reporter for UPI and other news organizations, and Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, which monitors U.S.-Latin American relations. He was formerly an economic affairs officer with the U.N. Economic Commission in Latin America. Mr. Araujo, what is the likely scenario from this point on in terms of coalitions and who actually ends up running that government?

RICHARD ARAUJO: I think the possibilities now, due to the massive return or the massive participation by the people, is far greater now of a coalition. It is this massive return that is now moving both the ARENA Party and the Christian Democrats into some form of a dialogue, eventually -- or the thoughts of a dialogue, in forming a coalition. And the possibilities of a national unity government are also the possibilities of drawing other areas of the social status --

LEHRER: Meaning the left?

Mr. ARAUJO: I would consider the democratic left. I think that the outcome of the elections have isolated the military left into one position where the people have rejected their representation and, at the same time, have now pointed towards the democratic portions of the left to choose which way they are going -- to participate in the political arena of what comes for the future of El Salvador, or are they going to join the military forces.

LEHRER: The words that are coming out of El Salvador today seem to fly in the face of what you said in terms of dialogue and coalition -- possibility of a coalition between Duarte on the one hand and D'Aubuisson on the other, each saying, "We're going to try to make our own coalition," and saying bad things about the other. You think that that's just talk and that reality will cause something else to happen?

Mr. ARAUJO: No, I think something that's being overlooked is the participation of some of the other candidates. You have the candidate of the Accion Democratica -- AD, Rene Fortin Magana -- who is very well respected, is more of center, and someone who can become, even though they'll have very few seats in the assembly, according to the returns, they can have a very influential role in bringing these two oppositions together into forming a coalition. I feel that they are looking -- what the massive turnout is going to force them into settling into [is] a coalition for the better of the country instead of trying to continue fighting among each other. And I understand Mr. D'Aubuisson has said that no, he is not going to prosecute Mr. Duarte. So at least there -- if he actually said it, there is some hope in there.

LEHRER: You heard what Congressman Studds said about Mr. D'Aubuission. Do you think the United States should support a government that he participates in?

Mr. ARAUJO: I think it would be too premature to judge what his role will be in the government. We have to clarify one thing: that Mr. Duarte and Mr. D'Aubuisson are not running for seats in the election. They are heads of a party. The people voted for representations of the parties, not for specifically Mr. D'Aubuisson or Mr. Duarte, even though they are very influential.

LEHRER: But they were the ones that were campaigning.

Mr. ARAUJO: I think they will continue to become very influential political personalities in this sphere, but I think that a more moderate centrist coalition is going to surface in the event of what has happened. And I think the people of El Salvador have given the answer, not only for themselves locally but I think to the rest of the world and to the United States.

LEHRER: In a word, then, you're terribly optimistic that these results are going to end up some way in a peaceful solutionto El Salvador's problems, right?

Mr. ARAUJO: I'm hoping to.

LEHRER: Robin?

MacNEIL: Mr. Birns, what do you think is likely to emerge in the new government?

LARRY BIRNS: I think that the elections probably have opened up a can of worms for the Reagan administration because almost every conceivable model that you follow presents very significant problems to it. For example, if Duarte must go into a coalition with one of the conservative parties -- the conservative parties just didn't run because they wanted to run. They stand for things. One of the things they stand for is undoing the very series of reforms which is the basis of the support that the Reagan administration is providing to the Duarte junta.

MacNEIL: Which was reinforced by a State Department spokesman the other day.

Mr. BIRNS: This is the centerpiece of the U.S. position. Now, these minority parties come into the coalition and say, "Sure, we'll support you Christian Democrats if you don't go into the second phase of the land reform programs, affecting the medium-sized farms; if you undo the nationalization of the coffee and cotton export boards, which occurred under Duarte." That is the very nature, the very marrow of the Christian Democratic platform.So, if that happens, of course, you don't have a reform government. You have essentially a denatured, undone policy which should really occasion very little interest in the United States except, of course, that what has occurred has occurred under a democratic process. Now, the other point would be if Duarte is excluded from the junta and the two largest tallying conservative parties come to power, then that presents a very significant problem to the United States. It would be extremely difficult to sell that type of regime to the U.S. Congress. After all, it can be fairly said that within the next 12 months the United States is going to probably have to come up with $800 million in economic and military assistance to El Salvador in a series of supplementary aid bills. You couldn't possibly present these kinds of requests to Congress for a government that really doesn't embody sort of even centrist democratic values. Also, there's the problem of Venezuela. Venezuela is the mainstay of U.S. policy towards El Salvador. The government of Venezuela -- a Christian Democratic government -- is very hard put to defend its policy in Venezuela with Duarte out. It has no reason to support this essentially right-wing operation in El Salvador.

MacNEIL: When we did a program on Friday, looking forward to this election, former ambassador Robert White criticized the administration for taking what he said was a huge gamble in these elections which might have the result of weakening Duarte. Is that what you're saying is a likely possibility?

Mr. BIRNS: Well, I think that the United States probably unfairly obtruded into the Salvadoran electoral picture by continuously saying it supports Duarte. After all, we would somewhat resent if some foreign country interfered in the U.S. electoral process. But without Duarte as the centerpiece of U.S. policy, the whole thing comes apart, and that's why Duarte was needed, as was the legitimation that the electoral process would give.

MacNEIL: Can I ask you one further question? If Duarte were able to form a coalition, and the ARENA Party, the D'Aubuisson group, were in opposition, given the fledgling nature of democracy in El Salvador, can they support that kind of opposition and remain in the kind of constructive tension that it does in other democracies, or would it just blow itself up?

Mr. BIRNS: It would seem that the coalition would be intrinsically unstable, and that the first significant policy issue that would come along would detonate it. Of course, we're not talking, perhaps, about one additional element, and I think Congressman Studds sort of referred to it, but whatever the rearrangement of the civilian political spectrum, the real power base is in none of these people, but is in General Garcia, the minister of defense. And in the 20,000-odd members of the Salvadoran security forces. They are concerned not with the enhancement of democracy, but in the preservation of the military system. And that's going to be their desiderata, and not what particularly pleases the civilian politicians.

MacNEIL: Well, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Congressman Dornan, do you see the same can of worms coming up ahead as Mr. Birns does?

Rep. DORNAN: Well, I see a can of worms in the whole area. When you have that Caribbean basin with so many small countries dependent upon one crop -- Dominica gets hit by a hurricane and the country's in chaos. This small country of El Salvador -- and, I repeat, with half the population of 4 1/2 million below 15 years of age -- depending on two crops, basically, cotton and coffee, and energy prices rising, you have as bad a situation as anywhere. Guatemala's almost half again larger, and Mexico 72 million people. The whole area is going to be a problem as long as we're around.

LEHRER: Right. But to the specific problem that Mr. Birns just outlined, that if Duarte is excluded we've got a serious problem; if Duarte has to make peace or make a coalition with some other rightist parties, we've got a serious problem in terms of U.S. policy. How do you feel about that?

Rep. DORNAN: Well, his vote of his party, the Christian Democrats, is so significant a turnout -- 40% -- that if this were the case, say, in Israel, which has a very razor-thin parliamentary edge for the Likud Party -- he will always play a role there. He's courageous just to stay in that country. So if a coalition forms and people see -- in that country, the people who voted -- United States support is still for a reform government, he will always have credibility in the country, and I think he has shown the type of courage as a man that he will participate vigorously in that parliament, that Knesset, that assemblage of elected people. So I think it's moving ahead, as rough a can of worms as it is.

LEHRER: How do you feel about that, Congressman Studds?

Rep. STUDDS: Well, I have a terrible feeling that the prediction of Ambassador White may turn out to be true, namely, that we'll have a weaker Duarte. Mr. Duarte, as we've just heard, is either going to have to share power with Mr. D'Aubuisson, whom Ambassador White has described as a pathological killer, or he is going to be out of power altogether, and the coalition will be formed by parties on the extreme right which, together, have garnered more votes than Mr. Duarte has. The election, among other things, therefore, seems to me to have legitimized a segment of the far right which prior to this had no legitimacy whatever, which doesn't have a democratic thought in its head, and which has taken advantage of this situation. I don't for the life of me see how the United States could support a government in which those forces play a role. Mr. D'Aubuisson would have to take back everything he's said for the past three years. He is absolutely opposed to the entire program of reform.

LEHRER: Aren't we caught, then, between the rock and a hard place, Congressman? I say to both of you, we've supported the democratic elections, a large turnout; the people now have spoken, and the democratic process -- and they end up with a government that we don't like, then what do we do?

Rep. DORNAN: Well, Mr. Studds was willing to vote $75 million to the Nicaraguan revolutionary Sandinistas, who gave no indication they were ever going to have an election, and they never will -- as Cuba has not had an election in 20 years. I'm inclined to support somebody who is willing, no matter what their warts are -- and there are considerable human rights violations with all the parties there -- I think that we have to go with an election process even if we don't like the outcome. And we always have the option, which we'd all agree on, to completely pull out all aid, and then they'll all end up either dead or busboys in Miami. And, by the way, we have a half a million Salvadorans in this country already. That's equal to the half a million Indochinese we have.

LEHRER: Mr. Araujo, what's your view of Mr. Birns' rather pessimistic look ahead?

Mr. ARAUJO: I think we're underestimating the role that either of these people can play in the development of El Salvador.

LEHRER: You man Duarte and D'Aubuisson?

Mr. ARAUJO: Duarte and D'Aubuisson. I do not believe that Mr. D'Aubuisson is going to be named the next president of El Salvador, neither do I believe that Mr. Duarte will also continue to be president. But I believe that for the good of the country they are going to have to be able to form a coalition that is going to defend those rights. It is going to lead towards a working democracy, of what the people have voted for.

LEHRER: You mean just the pressure of the election and the outcome of the election is going to cause these men to do what they might not want to do?Is that what you're saying?

Mr. ARAUJO: It's very possible because this had not happened before. They had not counted on this massive voter turnout.

LEHRER: Mr. Birns?

Mr. BIRNS: Well, I think when it comes to El Salvador, nothing is as it seems. For example, I don't for a moment at this point buy the fact that 1.2 million people are going to vote in El Salvador. So far we have allegedly 24% of the returns -- something like 350-or 360,000 people voted. All of the major cities have already reported. This leaves basically two provinces in El Salvador -- Cabanas and another province -- with relatively low amounts of density of population to report. That is, my assumption is that -- and we have several colleagues down in El Salvador who will be coming back tomorrow; we'll hold a press conference for them to report on the election. My assumption is that nothing is to be believed until several days later, when people start poking around to see what actually happened. But there are a couple of things that we do know. One is the absolute hypocrisy of American conservatives when it comes to elections. I vividly remember, when I was in Chile with the United Nations, that when the congressional elections took place in Chile in '73 and Allende got 37% of the vote in a multipartite operation, everyone said, "This vote was not a claim for power because only, you know, slightly more than a third of the people supported him." You can be sure that this will now be reversed, and they will say 39% of the vote gives legitimacy to Duarte, but 37% of the vote in Chile in '73 didn't give legitimacy. Secondly, I think that the --

Rep. DORNAN: Not I. Don't put all conservatives in one bag.

Mr. BIRNS: No, no. It wasn't you. I didn't have your name in mind. I look upon you as a statesman, not as a conservative. As a conservative statesman.

Mr. ARAUJO: May I add some figures, that according to CBS they are counting on a turnout of 900,000 people.

LEHRER: Which would be roughly 65-70 percent.

Mr. ARAUJO: And it could possibly go to the million.

LEHRER: Robin?

MacNEIL: Yes. Starting with you Congressman Studds. I wonder, given the scenarios we've just heard on the likely coalitions that may result, what's this going to do to the leftists? Is it going to make them fade away or fight harder because the coalition government might be more right-wing in complexion than the junta has been until now? What's your thinking?

Rep. STUDDS: Well, I think that's the real question. The real question isn't precisely how many people voted. The real question is whether the fundamental problems of El Salvador are any closer to solution tonight than they were last night. There is a revolution in El Salvador and there is going to continue to be a violent revolution in that country. There are violent forces on the right. Not only are they going to continue to be there, but it's entirely possible, based on what we know so far of the returns, that they'll assume a major role in the government, which they never had before. It seems to me that if one looks at it that way one sees anything but a solution. One sees a deepening and a complicating of the problems facing both the nation of El Salvador and the Reagan administration in this country. I am afraid that the corner into which this administration has been painting all of us is a corner in which we find ourselves a little deeper rather than a little further out after the dust has settled on this election.

MacNEIL: What's your view of that, Congressman Dornan? Is this likely to make for more violence rather than less?

Rep. DORNAN: Well, I don't see how elections ever -- even in their worst light -- can make for more violence. Whenever you have people who try to shoot or knife their way to power, you have a cancer in a country, and whether it's from the far right or the far left, they never come to justice -- all of them. It sort of goes into remission. Every time I go to Germany and someone in my age bracket or a little older, and he's driving around in a taxi, I look at the back of his head and wonder if he was a concentration-camp commander -- not totally fair, but a realistic thought occasionally. They just go into remission and they fade away. And what I resented was some -- and I underline the word "some" -- some American press people romanticizing the guerrillas in the hills, some congressmen trying to go out in the hills and travel with them, as one trip down there tried to do lately, and reporters thinking they can live in the capitol city of the host country, and then cross a no-man's land without being in danger and write stories about guitars and soccer shirts and Adidas jogging shoes when these people are opting to shoot the faces off teenage soldiers to get power, and we know they'll never have an election.

MacNEIL: Do you have a view of this, Mr. Araujo, what the guerrillas will do?

Mr. ARAUJO: They're going to have to choose which way they would like to follow. It's very possible that they will get more arms and continue the fighting. But it's going to come to a point where they are going to start giving in. There is a sense of pride and unity in El Salvador right now that has not been felt, probably, since the Honduran-Salvador war. And this is something that has to be looked into very seriously, because before there was a tremendous amount of fear, hatred. This has built up during, especially, the last three-four years. So the turnout for the elections shows that the people of El Salvador, or, better yet, the guerrillas do not represent the voice of the people of El Salvador. They are going to have to be pushed into some sort of a settlement if they would like to continue, or if we want to see the democratic process surface in El Salvador. Or if they continue with their attacks -- military involvement -- you're going to have several million people in El Salvador is going to start picking up their own arms and going to fight the guerrillas themselves without waiting for the government to come around to help them.

MacNEIL: We have to leave it there. Thank you very much, Congressman Dornan, Congressman Studds, Mr. Araujo, Mr. Birns for joining us. Good night, Jim.

LEHRER: Good night, Robin.

MacNEIL: That's all for tonight. We will be back tomorrow night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.