The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; 6036; Poland: On Strike

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JIM LEHRER [voice-over]: The three largest ports in Poland were closed to all shipping today as the East European nation`s labor problems deepened and spread. How much deeper and further will it go before it ends is now the question.

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LEHRER: Good evening. A reported 100,000 workers in some 140 different industries and factories are now on strike in communist Poland. They want more money and more freedom, two items the government of Communist Party Chief Edward Gierek will be hard-pressed to grant. Gierek told the workers as much in a special televised appeal today. He asked the strikers to go back to work, saying some of what they wanted was totally unacceptable under the principles of a socialist state. The workers` 16 demands include free trade unions, the right to strike, abolition of censorship, release of political prisoners, and other changes which do go to the heart of the communist system of government in Poland. The core of the strike and the trouble is the gigantic Lenin Shipyards in Gdansk, one of the major port cities on the Baltic Sea. Its 16,000 striking workers joined forces with others yesterday to form a solid-front organization to carry their demands to the government. Whether Gierek`s televised appeal will defuse the situation, remains to be seen. If it doesn`t, then what? For the strikers and for Poland and for its friend, the Soviet Union, among others -- the others including a very interested United States. Those are among the concerns we consider tonight. Robert MacNeil is off. Charlayne Hunter-Gault is in New York. Charlayne?

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Jim. it`s ironic that Poland exports 100.000 tons of its ham and other meat delicacies, because the most wrenching problems it has had in the last 10 years have stemmed from chronic shortages of meat. In 1970, at least 50 people were killed at the Lenin Shipyard during rioting against meat price increases. This led to the collapse of the government of Wladyslaw Gomulka. Edward Gierek, the present Communist Party leader, succeeded him and immediately rolled back prices to 1966 levels. Then, in 1976 when he tried to raise prices, Mr. Gierek was also violently rebuffed, and prices were rolled back again. The next government move came 48 days ago, on July 1st, when the regime abandoned the subsidies that kept meat prices down. This drove prices immediately up, and once again sent workers into the streets in protest. For an update on what`s going on and some insight into Poland, we go now to a journalist with the Polish Press Agency at the United Nations. He is Zbizniew Boniecki, who has recently returned from a month-long visit to Poland. Mr. Boniecki, you just heard what Jim said. The Communist Party leader Gierek today was calling for order and in effect a return to work. Is that likely to happen? Is he likely to get his wish?

ZBIZNIEW BONIECKI: I suppose yes, there is such possibility.

HUNTER-GAULT: How much of a possibility?

BONIECKI: Well, pretty good, because the situation in Poland just now is very serious, and people and workers -- workers in Gdansk as well -- I hope are realizing that there is no other way for Poland at the moment in this situation than just to return to work and to-- only this way, we can get out from this difficulties.

HUNTER-GAULT: Well, yesterday the radio, Gdansk radio reportedly said that the climate of discussion in certain plants was alarming. I mean, does that indicate to you that people are ready to go back to work, or just what?

BONIECKI: Well, as a matter of fact, we don`t know-- we don`t have got exact information`s what`s going on in these factories.

HUNTER-GAULT: So. you have no idea of how widespread the strike is. or do you--`.`

BONIECKI: Well, I suppose that in some report there is a big deal of truth, but you have to observe that the majority of those reports are not reports on the spot by journalists who are at these factories or at these municipal enterprises, which we heard that they went on the strike, but they are second-hand reports from dissident sources which are politically involved in this situation and want to exploit the situation to their own purposes.

HUNTER-GAULT: So, do you have any sense of just how crippling the strike is? I mean, how badly it`s hurting the country?

BONIECKI: Well, every work stoppage in Poland at this situation, with our enormous foreign debts, when we badly need every piece of product for export, is crippling our economy, is crippling our society. It`s undoubtedly-- it`s very serious.

HUNTER-GAULT: Who seems to be leading the strike?

BONIECKI: Well, in this case, we don`t know exact information as well. We only know information from Warsaw, from various groups of dissidents.

HUNTER-GAULT: So, are you saying that the dissidents are leading the strike, or is this a genuine worker-led strike, or coalition--?

BONIECKI: Well, I suppose, what concerns labor stoppages-- they are led by workers, as it was in Lublin in July, and in other towns in Poland. But after some talk, the workers in Lublin returned to work, and in other places as well.

HUNTER-GAULT: Briefly, how do you read the-- what sounds like incredibly non-communist sounding demands that the workers have made?

BONIECKI: Well, with this, there is another problem as well, because undoubtedly there are economic demands set out by workers, but what concerns political demands, we are not sure about this. 1 suppose that in the atmosphere of high tension, of conflict, there are undoubtedly some demands, very extreme demands from various groups in the factories as well, but I notice in some dispatches from today -- in UPI. for instance -- that the workers` striking committee in Gdansk hasn`t decided yet what political demands might be, whether there will be 16 of them, or 25 of them. It wasn`t yet decided, even by Western journalists.

HUNTER-GAULT: Do you have a sense of what the workers` demands are? What separates those from the political demands within that 16?

BONIECKI: Well, the workers` demands are basically economic demands. They are widespread all over the country because as it was admitted in last Friday`s television speech by our prime minister, Babiuch, it was admitted that economic information in Poland wasn`t sufficiently, and the society wasn`t informed to sufficient degree about the seriousness of this situation.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right. We`ll come back. Jim`.`

LEHRER: And thus to understand what`s happening in Poland, it is important to under-stand what`s happening in its economy, and Lawrence Brainard is here to help us do that. He`s the chief international economist for the Bankers Trust Company in New York He`s a specialist on the economies of the Eastern European nations, particularly Poland, since he helped organized the first major consortium of Western banks to make a loan to Poland in 1974. Mr. Brainard. in how bad a shape is the Polish economy?

LAWRENCE BRAINARD: [audio lost -- several words] --about Poland is that it`s a very large and very important country. It`s one of the major industrial countries in Europe. It`s a country with major coal resources. It`s one of the largest exporters of sulphur. And the kind of history we`ve seen in the last eight to 10 years is a tremendous expansion that ran head- on into the OPEC oil price rise of the mid-70s. and as they were trying to adjust to those price increases, they ran into the latest oil price increases, and so they`re behind the eight ball two or three limes.

LEHRER: Behind the eight-- excuse me, behind the eight ball in what way? What has been the net effect of all of this on their economy right now?

BRAINARD: The effect is that their investment has gone ahead much faster than their ability to pay for the credits they`ve used to make these investments. They`ve taken credits during the mid-70s in the expectation that they could develop their resources and export these resources, and gain hard currency by which to service these credits. But what has happened is that the economies of the West, in particular Western Europe, have slowed down. Their export markets have not developed as quickly as they hoped, and as a result, they have remained in deficit on their trade. That meant more credits. They`ve had bad weather. They`ve had to import more grain. Even more credits on top of that. Just to give you an example, in the first six months of the year, Poland balanced its foreign trade with Western countries, but if you [audio lost -- one word] the payments of interest and other payments such as transport and remittances on an annual rate, they had a deficit of about $1 billion. So, in order to balance their payments, given the level of debt that they have, they have to have a surplus running something like $1 billion.

LEHRER: Well, the demands that the workers are making-- As Mr. Boniecki says, it`s a little difficult to get precise information because there are some coming from journalists, there are some, as he says, coming from political dissidents, etc. But the best we can tejl over here is that they want the subsidies maintained on meat, say. They want higher wages, basic economic things, number one. Can the government of Poland as it sits there now. financially meet those demands?

BRAINARD: No. there`s no way they can meet the demands in full. Basically, Poland faces two problems. One problem is a problem of rising expectations and really a crisis of rising expectations.

LEHRER: On the part of the people of Poland?

BRAINARD: That`s right. During the mid-70s the wages in real terms, after corrected for inflation, were rising at one of the fastest rates in the industrial world, something like between five and seven percent. That`s something that we haven`t seen here. People got used to it. They liked it. They liked to go off on vacation in their cars. They liked to have the meat. In fact, meat consumption in Poland has risen very substantially. But the prices have remained fixed, so there was a tremendous excess demand. People had money to spend -- there was nothing to spend it on. So, it`s partly a problem of rising expectations and a lack of communication. The workers are saying. `Well, the government`s telling us their problems, but we don`t understand what these problems are. We`re not sure that we really trust these explanations.` And I think one of the main priorities of the government is really to explain the seriousness of the economic situation, because the world of 1980 and the 1980s, looking around at Western Europe, the United States, is going to be very different than what we`ve seen in the 1970s.

LEHRER: Is it your impression that just the explanation you gave at the very beginning, in terms of what has caused Poland`s economic problems-- that explanation has not been given through the years to the people of Poland as it was in fact developing?

BRAINARD: I think what has not been adequately explained is that the workers have to make sacrifices. There have been miscalculations. Poland thought that the tremendous coal resources that it possessed would really pull it through the energy crisis. But coal prices never went up anything like oil prices. So. they have remained in deficit, and they`ve taken more and more credits in order to sustain a standard of consumption that really can`t be sustained.

LEHRER: In a word. Mr. Brainard. just looking at it from an economic standpoint, can Poland survive unless it takes these stringent measures that you outlined, that the govern-ment wants to do now?

BRAINARD: I don`t think there`s any question that the Poles have to pull in their belt. The question is really, how are they going to do it. and how are they going to explain it?

LEHRER: I see. Thank you. Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: As Jim said earlier, one of the 16 demands of the striking workers in Poland is the establishment of free trade unions. One man in this country who has followed labor relations in Poland and elsewhere is Charles Gati. professor of political science at Union College. Professor Gati is the author of several books on East-West relations and is currently co-editing a book called Labor in Eastern Europe. This year he is a visiting professor at Columbia University. Professor Gati. how organized, in your view, are the workers?

Prof. CHARLES GATI: Well, you have to keep in mind that there are two permanent organizations in Poland, two permanent political organizations. One is the regime`s organ-ization, including the party, the Communist Party, and the government. And the second one is the Catholic Church. No other organizations really have any permanent foundations. So, the workers` organization should be called an ad hoc organization, although of course it goes back to the previous two major strikes, one in 1976 and one in 1970.

HUNTER-GAULT: The Catholic Church isn`t involved in this at all. so far.

GATI: So far.

HUNTER-GAULT: Or it doesn`t seem to be? GATI: That`s correct.

HUNTER-GAULT: Uh-huh. Who is leading this ad hoc group?

GATI: Well, we don`t really have any information of-- about this, any precise ones. A couple of names have been mentioned and it`s rather interesting that one of the workers who acted as a spokesman for the workers at the Lenin Shipyards is a man who was very deeply involved with the 1976 crisis. After that, he was dismissed from his job. and now apparently he has been reinstated and once again he seems to be a spokesman or a leader for the workers.

HUNTER-GAULT: Is it your sense that even as this group may be ad hoc. that it is well-organized?

GATI: Well, it seems to be well-organized. They have occupied several factories. They did not leave some of these factories over the weekend. I heard reports that they are fairly well-supplied with food. Obviously the relatives are coming in with whatever is available in Gdansk or Szczecin or Lublin or the other places. So. I have the impression that they seem to know what they want. Their problem is one of communications, because tele- phone lines between Warsaw and some of the Baltic ports have been cut.

HUNTER-GAULT: Yeah, that was one of the demands, that they restore those lines before they continue negotiations. In your view, is this a political or an economic strike?

GATI: 1 think it is primarily an economic strike at the present time, with obvious political connotations. Nothing that happens in a communist country like Poland is without political significance.

HUNTER-GAULT: Well, how do you read the non-socialist sounding demands that they have put together?

GATI: Well, I think some of those demands will not be met. some others may be met. After all, back in the early 1970s, after the 1970 strike, the Polish government did allow -- this was the same system you have today, the same leadership, in effect -- Gierek`s regime did allow for a couple of years the existence of workers` committees. They did not replace the trade unions as such, because the trade unions remain controlled by the government. But in effect, you had two concurrent, parallel organizations. It is true that within a couple of years they were abolished.

HUNTER-GAULT: Well, which ones do you see having the most currency or the ones that have the most chance of success?

GATI: You mean, of the political demands?

HUNTER-GAULT: Yes

GATI: The political--

HUNTER-GAULT: No. either way.

GATI: Well, the economic demands-- it`s rather clear that they all cannot be met. Poland simply cannot afford to meet all the demands, so I think there will be a partial compromise, perhaps already indicated. After all. they`re asking for something like the equivalent of $65 or $70 a month increase, and if I read the report correctly, about $40 have been offered. So-- and not accepted by the workers for now. But some kind of compromise along those lines will probably take place. Now, the political demands-- I think it`s precisely in the trade union realm that the regime might be innovative. You have to keep in mind that one of the important things in any political system, socialist or capitalist, is a sense of participation. If the people don`t feel that they are part of a system, that they belong to it, that it is indeed theirs, they simply will not produce that much. And I believe it is very important that the Polish workers are concentrating as much as they are con-centrating on establishing some form of independent or perhaps semi-independent trade unions.

HUNTER-GAULT: And this is something you think the Gierek government could live with? GATI: I believe it will have to live with it. yes.

HUNTER-GAULT: Is that government in any danger of collapse at this point?

GATI: I think it is. yes.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right. Thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Do you think it is. Mr. Boniecki? Do you think the government is on the verge of collapsing?

BONIECKI: Well, it all depends on decisions made by the Central Committee of the Party, which is being prepared to meet. Today`s Edward Gierek`s speech was after political bureau of the Central Committee meeting. I don`t know if his speech-- I don`t know the decisions, but of course, the change of government, if the Central Committee of the Party will so decide, and the Polish parliament will so decide, is always possible.

LEHRER: Do you think that the government under Mr. Gierek or under the Central Committee could give the workers the sense of participation that Mr. Gati was talking about? Do you think it would be willing to?

BONIECKI: Yes, of course, because there is no constant situation in the politics. If the situation is changing, then there is always room for some changes. There is always room for some reforms.

LEHRER: Can those reforms be made, though, without changing the nature of the government in Poland? As Mr. Gierek said today, there were some things that just could not be granted because they run contrary to the foundations of a socialist state. Where do those things rest, in your opinion?

BONIECKI: Well, I am absolutely sure that what Edward Gierek has got in mind, that it can`t be changed, that is absolutely unchangeable, that the majority of workers are of the same opinion, than what concerns principles. The principles are unchangeable. But var-ious forms of socialist society can be changed and should be changed together with changing in life.

LEHRER: I take it. then, Mr. Boniecki. that you expect this to be resolved peacefully, without the violence that has happened in these-- when these last two situations arose? Do you believe this one will be different in that it will be peaceful?

BONIECKI: Yes, I hope so. and I am sure that the same hopes is sharing by ail Poles, and by our friends all over the world.

LEHRER: Mr. Brainard. let me ask you. From an economic standpoint, the problems that Poland is having now-- are they unique to Poland, or are they symptomatic of what`s happening in all of Eastern Europe?

BRAINARD: Well, there are certain aspects that are unique to Poland, and I think Poland at the same time shares similar problems with many other countries who are looking at servicing debts that they`ve taken in the past years, faced with a higher bill for oil. other raw materials. I think what is unique in Poland`s case really is the nature of the economic system. Poles have not really found the appropriate formula for making the economy work. Here`s an economy that has tremendous resources. It`s the second most important economy is Eastern Europe after the Soviet Union. Yet somehow they haven`t been able to put the resources together to produce the kinds of values and products that are needed not only in Poland but also in the West, in terms of their exports. And one of the key priorities now is to follow through with some very critical economic reforms. But these cannot really be done overnight. They`ve got to buy time in order to prepare some fundamental reforms. These are reforms that some of the other countries in Eastern Europe have implemented. They`re facing the same problems, but they`ve seemed somehow to implement the reforms and have had some success.

LEHRER: Professor Gati. the Christian Science Monitor had a story this morning in which they said that the rest of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union were terribly edgy over what was happening in Poland. In your opinion, do they have good reason to be edgy?

GATI: Well, of course, whenever there is unrest in Eastern Europe anywhere, particularly in Poland, they have very good reason to be edgy. The situation is dangerous, and--

LEHRER: Dangerous in what way?

GATI: In a sense that there is no obvious solution to this, neither in an economic sense nor in a political sense. Economically, we already discussed this here.

LEHRER: Sure

GATI: They have to buy time. The question is. do they have time to implement the necessary economic reforms. But politically, the situation is also dangerous because there is only so far that Poland can go from-- well, the model of socialist development else-where in Eastern Europe, including, of course, the Soviet Union. And finally, you have to keep in mind that this is the country that is truly the most important one in Eastern Europe. It has been the cause of major conflict, perhaps including World War II itself. So. and finally, you have to keep in mind that the Polish workers are not likely to give in easily. Poland itself, its history, does not indicate that this is a country like Czechoslovakia, for example, which did not fight, back in 1968. And many other reasons.

LEHRER: All right. Professor, thank you very much. And gentlemen-- the other two gentlemen, thank you very much in New York. And good night. Charlayne.

HUNTER-GAULT: Good night. Jim.

LEHRER: And we`ll see you tomorrow night. I`m Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.