The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight: A summary of the news; the latest on a new audio tape from Osama bin laden; plus excerpts from two major senate hearings today, with analysis and perspectives following each-- first, what FBI and CIA chiefs said about terrorism threats to America, and then, what U.S. Officials are thinking about handling a post-war Iraq.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: A new audio tape believed to be from Osama bin Laden surfaced today. The al-Jazeera satellite TV channel carried the taped message. A man speaking Arabic urges Muslims to defend Iraq against a possible U.S. attack. He says, "We stress the importance of martyrdom operations -- these attacks that have scared Americans and Israelis like never before." At the same time, the speaker denounces Saddam Hussein's secular government as "infidels." And he calls for killing Arab leaders who back the United States. Earlier in Washington, Secretary of State Powell told a Senate hearing the tape shows the links between Iraq and al-Qaida.

COLIN POWELL: Once again, he speaks to the people of Iraq and talks about their struggle and how he is in partnership with Iraq. This nexus between terrorists and states that are developing weapons of mass destruction can no longer be looked away from and ignored.

JIM LEHRER: Powell said the U.S. believes the voice on the tape is definitely bin Laden's. A White House spokesman declined to say how the U.S. had gotten access to the tape, hours before it was broadcast. We'll have more on this in a moment. The heads of the FBI and CIA warned Congress today that al-Qaida remains an active, "merciless" enemy. CIA Director Tenet said there could be an attack this week, in the United States or the Persian Gulf. FBI Director Mueller said the greatest danger is from cells inside the United States that have not been found. Last week, the government raised the national alert status to orange, for "high" risk. We'll have more on this later in the program. Britain stepped up security around London today, after police warned that al-Qaida might strike. About 450 troops, with light tanks, were dispatched to Heathrow airport. Sky News TV reported police were searching cars on roads near there, under the airport's flight paths. The Reuters News Service reported troops were also called in to guard other sites in an around London. In Indonesia, a key suspect in the Bali bombing confessed today, and apologized to the victims' families. At a news conference, he demonstrated how a suicide attacker carried a vest filled with explosives into a nightclub. A larger bomb exploded in a minivan outside. The attack killed 192 people. Israel imposed a blanket closure on Palestinian areas today after warnings of possible attacks. The closure coincided with the start of an important Muslim holiday. The Israeli government had planned to ease restrictions on Palestinians before the new warnings. NATO failed again today to resolve a dispute over military aid for Turkey. The U.S. made the request to plan for a possible war with Iraq. France, Germany, and Belgium blocked the move yesterday, saying it would undercut diplomatic efforts. They gave no ground today. More consultations are scheduled tomorrow. The head of the space shuttle investigation said today he was optimistic about discovering what caused the disaster. Retired Navy Admiral Harold Gehman said the experts on his independent board had solved accidents with even less evidence. Earlier, the three astronauts on the international space station said they'd been shocked by the loss of "Columbia." The station commander, Kenneth Bowersox, spoke at a news conference with his colleagues, one American and one Russian.

KENNETH BOWERSOX: When you're up here this long you can't just bottle up your emotions and focus all the time. It's important for us to acknowledge that the people on STS-107 were our friends, that we had a connection with them and that we feel their loss. Each of us had a chance to shed some tears, but now it's time to move forward. And we're doing that slowly. This press conference today is a huge step that's helping us move along towards our normal objectives in fulfilling our mission here.

JIM LEHRER: The crew said they'd be willing to stay on the space station for a year, if need be. The chairman of the Federal Reserve cautioned Congress today about new tax cuts. Alan Greenspan said the president's plan for $1.3 trillion in tax cuts might make the economy more flexible. But he told a Senate hearing there's also no question the deficit would go up.

ALAN GREENSPAN: We ought to be doing both, namely trying to move towards increased flexibility but be very careful not to allow deficits to get out of hand especially when we are going to be running into a significant problem starting 2010, 2012 and beyond with a very significant acceleration in beneficiaries for both Social Security and Medicare.

JIM LEHRER: Greenspan also said it wasn't clear the economy needs the stimulus of new tax cuts. He said uncertainty about a war with Iraq is the main cloud hanging over the economy at the moment. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 77 points to close at 7843. The NASDAQ fell a point to close at 1295. Democratic Presidential Candidate John Kerry will have his prostate removed tomorrow, after being diagnosed with cancer. The Massachusetts senator announced it today. He said he plans to go ahead with his presidential bid. His doctor said the cancer was detected in "a very early" form. He said Kerry has at least a 95 percent chance of being cured. President Nixon's White House press secretary, Ron Ziegler, died Monday. He had a heart attack at his home in Coronado, California. Ziegler steadfastly defended Mr. Nixon during the Watergate scandal, until White House tapes proved there had been a cover- up. He later said he had not known about the illegal activity. Ron Ziegler was 63 years old. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to: Osama bin Laden speaks again; the ongoing terrorism threat; and Iraq, post-Saddam.

FOCUS - NEW TAPE

JIM LEHRER: Gwen Ifill has the Osama bin laden story.

GWEN IFILL: And joining me are Dana Priest-- she covers intelligence issues for the Washington Post-- and Steven Simon, who served as a national security adviser on counterterrorism during the Clinton administration. He recently co-authored "The Age of Sacred Terror," a book about al-Qaida.

Dana Priest, what do we know about the authenticity of this tape?

DANA PRIEST: Well, U.S. officials are saying that it is authentic, that it's not 100 percent but their preliminary analysis done by people who know bin Laden's voice, know his speech pattern and know his rhetoric say that it sounds an awful lot like him. They'll send it out for more technical analysis now. But they do expect that that will come back and validate their initial assessment.

GWEN IFILL: Are the things that are contained, the statements that he has made in this audio tape today, are they different? How do they compare to the kinds of statements we've seen in these types of cases before?

DAN PRIEST: Well, they're not different in one sense, in the sense that he is again calling Muslims to arms to rise up against the United States. He does make reference specifically to Iraq, so that gets us to this particular moment where actually U.S. officials and intelligence analysts had predicted that if we get closer to war and the United States looks like it is going to invade that that will incite people to rise up and join al-Qaida and other terrorist networks. That looks like what is happening.

GWEN IFILL: Steve Simon, from what you're reading of the transcript of this tape does it sound like Osama bin laden is making common cause as the administration put it today with Saddam Hussein? Is he making common cause with the Iraqi people or just with Muslims everywhere?

STEVEN SIMON: Well, bin laden sees the world of Islam as locked in a terrible battle, a climactic battle with Christians and Jews. For him, the U.S. assault on Iraq proves this thesis. He wants to reinforce his point with his Muslim audience by saying, "look, even here in Iraq you have the U.S. taking on Muslims and trying to eliminate the only Muslim country that has dared to stand up to the Christian juggernaut."

GWEN IFILL: But he doesn't mention Saddam Hussein at all in this statement. In fact he says the fighting should be in the name of God only not in the name of national ideologies nor to seek victory for the ignorant government that rule all Arab states including Iraq. It sounds like he's almost distancing himself from Saddam Hussein.

STEVEN SIMON: Well he doesn't hold Saddam Hussein in high regard. He sees Saddam as being an apostate. He is willing to sort of fight alongside Iraq in this great battle because, again, he sees it as an issue of Muslims versus their enemies, not the Iraqi state versus another nation-state which it opposes.

GWEN IFILL: So, Dana Priest, when administration officials like Colin Powell and the intelligence officials you heard in the hearing today, George Tenet and john Mueller, when they start to say there is a nexus here between what's happening in Iraq and what's happening with Osama bin laden, do they make the case?

DANA PRIEST: Yes, they did. You know, what you're seeing is sort of a slingshot effect. They're talking about terrorism here if we start a war in Iraq. How does that ha happen? They say as Mueller did today that he thinks Baghdad will find a way to get chemical, nuclear and biological weapons here, may do it in concert with terrorist organizations that they have not worked with in the past and as CIA Director Tenet said the differences between terrorist organizations now are not important, that they think their common enemy, the United States, has united them and erased some of their ideological divisions that they have previously not been able to overcome.

GWEN IFILL: And they pretty much are assuming and embracing this tape, that Osama bin laden is alive, as they did after the last November tape I think.

DANA PRIEST: Well, right now there's no indication that it's as old as more than a year. So they will... that will be part of the upcoming analysis to figure out if, in fact, the tape could be... could have been made many, many months ago. But their assumption is that he is alive.

GWEN IFILL: Now when these tapes first began to surface, Dana, there was a lot of consternation within the administration that we in the news media were broadcasting them without looking at them too carefully, that we were playing into Osama bin Laden's game. Today it was the administration that called attention to this tape first in Sec. Powell's testimony. Why the change?

DANA PRIEST: Well, I think for exactly the reason that Secretary of State Powell was able to use this tape to say, "ha, this is further evidence of a connection between Iraq and al-Qaida," which as you know is a central point to the administration's policy of why attack Iraq now? The reason is that he is making common cause with terrorists who can deliver weapons of mass destruction to the United States. That's why he's an imminent threat so they used the tape in this regard to make that case.

GWEN IFILL: Steve Simon, is the case made in your opinion?

STEVEN SIMON: Well, there have clearly been contacts between the regime and the people, the guy who was identified the other day as having received medical care in Baghdad is clearly an important al-Qaida figure. The regime has also had extensive contacts with an al-Qaida affiliated group in northern Iraq with which the regime in Baghdad cooperates to destabilize the Kurds in northern Iraq, clearly an important objective for Saddam and something on which these groups are cooperate.

GWEN IFILL: So because so much of Osama bin Laden's justification is religious and so much of Saddam's justification is not, do they really have something in common here, just hatred of the infidels, of America?

STEVEN SIMON: Well, they have a common enemy. For Saddam it's not a religious issue. For Saddam it's an issue of real politic, just power politics. For bin Laden I expect it's actually different. He sees this as a religious war, which requires him to use whatever means are at his disposal and which require Muslims everywhere to rise up against their oppressors.

GWEN IFILL: Is it significant that this came on the last day of the Hajj?

STEVEN SIMON: This would be a time when there would be sermons with important themes that the preachers would raise so it's not surprising in that way.

GWEN IFILL: Dana, so today as we mentioned earlier we heard some of the administration officials talking about this orange alert which went into effect yesterday. At the same time, we then get this latest, newest threat from Osama bin laden. Is there a link between these two events?

DAN PRIEST: Well, it's yet to be seen. I'll have to tell you that in talking to intelligence officials today some of the most worrisome feelings came out that what they know about this sort of a statement is that in the last two times bin Laden has made them, they have been followed by terrorist actions, one in Mombassa, Kenya and the other against the French oil tanker. So this just adds one more element to what they already say, as George Tenet did today, said that our intelligence is the most specific that it has been. So even though we don't know what they mean by that exactly because they won't tell us, they are trying to convey something that is different from the past.

GWEN IFILL: Dana Priest and Steve Simon, thank you very much.

FOCUS - THE TERROR THREAT

JIM LEHRER: And now we have more on the terror threat to America. Tom Bearden begins.

TOM BEARDEN: This morning, CIA Director George Tenet and the FBI's Robert Mueller told the Senate Intelligence Committee just how serious they consider the threat of terrorism.

GEORGE TENET: Mr. Chairman, as you know, the United States last week raised the terrorist threat level. We did so because of the threat reporting from multiple sources with strong al-Qaida ties. The information we have points to plots aimed at targets on two fronts: In the United States and on the Arabian Peninsula. It points to plots timed to occur as early as the end of the Hajj, which occurs late this week, and it points to plots that could include the use of a radiological dispersal device, as well as poisons and chemicals. The intelligence is not idle chatter on the part of terrorists or their associates. It is the most specific we have seen, and it is consistent with both our knowledge of al-Qaida's doctrine and our knowledge of plots in this network, and particularly its senior leadership has been working for years.

TOM BEARDEN: FBI Director Mueller said the greatest threat is from al-Qaida cells within the country that they've yet to identify.

ROBERT MUELLER: Finding and rooting out al-Qaida members once they have entered the United States and have had time to establish themselves is our most serious intelligence and law enforcement challenge. But in addition, the threat from single individuals sympathetic or affiliated with al-Qaida acting without external support or conspiracies is increasing.

TOM BEARDEN: Committee Chairman Pat Roberts wanted to know how the average person should respond to the current threat.

SEN. PAT ROBERTS: I know this has really disturbed many Americans and I suspect many members of the public are wondering what they can or should do in light of the increased dangers. So what advice would you offer to the man or woman in the street other than to get out of the street?

ROBERT MUELLER: I do believe that our day in, day out life has changed since Sept. 11. We do have a heightened risk of attack from terrorist organizations, most particularly al-Qaida, and during certain periods we believe, and this is one of them, there is a heightened risk of an attack both overseas and in the United States. By saying that, we also must indicate our belief that Americans should go about their business, not cancel plans that they have because we have no specifics as to particular places or timing, but that we should all be more alert.

TOM BEARDEN: Maine Republican Olympia Snowe asked if there was any hesitation before issuing the alert.

SEN. OLYMPIA SNOWE: It seems to me that there was a lot of questions as to whether or not to even issue the alert. And I know, Director Tenet, you said that this chatter was significant, but I gather it wasn't specific enough to encourage the alert, and where were you both in terms of whether or not this alert should be issued?

GEORGE TENET: Well, I think it's fair to say that with regard to the issuance of the alert, we both believed that this was something that should be done. I mean, this is a story that's been pieced together that was very specific and credible information, it was sourced well over multiple sources, so I think from Bob and I's perspective we had to issue this alert. We made our case. Obviously the director of homeland security, the attorney general make the policy decision, but from where we sat, putting us at a heightened state of alert, being disruptive, throwing people off our feet, generating additional operational opportunities in this environment is important. Now people will come back andsay, "Senator, well if it doesn't happen in this time period, what does that mean?" It's really irrelevant to the point of there was enough credible data that takes us to a time period, and it increases our vigilance and we have a plot line that we will continue to run and follow so I think, Bob can speak for himself, but I think we were both in the same place.

ROBERT MUELLER: We absolutely were both in the same place, having access to... both of us, both institutions having access to the same intelligence, and the intelligence was not just foreign intelligence, but also domestic intelligence. And I believe we draw the same conclusions as to the necessity of raising the alert based on... based on our common understanding of that intelligence, and this process, I think, speaks volumes about the information sharing capabilities now as opposed to before Sept. 11.

TOM BEARDEN: This afternoon, Mueller and Tenet returned to a closed session before the committee to deliver a classified briefing on the terrorist threat.

JIM LEHRER: And to Margaret Warner.

MARGARET WARNER: Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security issued guidelines on how ordinary Americans should prepare for a possible terrorist strike with chemical, biological, or radiological weapons. Among the preparations people should make: Assemble a disaster supply kit, including first aid and personal items; obtain a battery-powered radio with extra batteries; designate a room in the home to take shelter; obtain duct tape and plastic sheeting to seal windows, doors, and vents; maintain a three-day supply of nonperishable food and water.

To discuss how cities and individuals should, and are, responding to the higher threat level issued late last week, we turn to two mayors-- Anthony Williams of Washington, D.C., and Patrick McCrory of Charlotte, North Carolina-- the president of the International Association of Firefighters, Harold Schaitberger; and Randall Larsen, director of the Institute for Homeland Security at the ANSWER Corporation. We invited the Department of Homeland Security to send a representative, but none was available. Welcome to you all. Randy Larsen, beginning with you. In general, how useful is guidance like the one... like the guidance issued yesterday for ordinary Americans?

RANDALL LARSEN: I think it's very important. There are several places you can find this information. Frankly the one I like best is on the Red Cross web site. Everyone can go see redcross.Org. I like their priorities: Create an emergency communications plan for your family. It's so important. If you think back to 9/11, trying to get in touch -- remember, Condi Rice, the national security advisor, one of the first things she did was call her aunt and uncle to say she was okay. It's so important. Establish a meeting place. Most important that kit you were talking about and other than the things that you mentioned, medicines -- you know I'm a terrible one about getting down to the last two or three pills before I go to the pharmacy. You should keep a month's supply of medicine, diapers, baby formula. Some of those things you need to have on hand - very important.

MARGARET WARNER: What's the experience in terms of other preparedness? Do guidelines like this make people feel more secure or does it frighten them?

RANDALL LARSEN: No. I think psychologically it's very good to be better prepared. If you look at the Israeli model-- and they have a lot of experience at this, their five step plan, psychological preparation of the public is very important. That's what we're doing right now.

MARGARET WARNER: Why is that?

RANDALL LARSEN: Do you remember how it was on the evening of 9/11. I'm a combat veteran. I was in shock. I was not prepared for this now. I think we're all going to be better prepared whether you're a mayor, a fire chief or an average citizen, being prepared, thinking about this. I have an idea of what my children are going to do, what my wife is going to do if something happens. We have back up plans and communication plans. That will make it less stressful.

MARGARET WARNER: Mayor Williams, how did your city respond to the higher threat level when it was raised last Friday?

ANTHONY WILLIAMS: Well, one of the first things I think you do in your city is you check your... the fancy word you hear is connectivity. In other words, check all your communications -- connections with all of your partners, whether they're other states, Maryland and Virginia in my case, other counties, the private sector, the federal government -- very importantly your own team. We had a drill on Sunday just a part of a series of drills that we've had just to see how we do in an emergency. Clearly we've learned a lot of lessons from Sept. 11. We're a much better prepared city than we were before then.

MARGARET WARNER: When you say we had a drill, what do you mean?

ANTHONY WILLIAMS: We had a drill. We had a no-notice drill around 11:00 simulating a disaster in the city. Everybody had to move to the Emergency Management Agency. If an agency weren't there, they heard from me.

MARGARET WARNER: Mayor McCrory, how did you, how did Charlotte respond?

PATRICK McCRORY: Well, we're mainly responding in such a way where we're contacting our partners who are the most potential targets, whether those financial institutions and we're a major banking center, the power plants, we have two major nuclear facilities right next to Charlotte -- our government buildings. So we have an immediate communication like Mayor Williams has to tie in and make sure we're all together on the same line and we know exactly how to respond together in partnership, not only among our governmental agency but also with private sector security firms.

MARGARET WARNER: Are you saying though that security at those particular installations was stepped up?

PATRICK McCRORY: We did step up particular security at specific areas like our power plants and especially around our financial and government buildings. We did not actually go to the next level of threat. We're kind of in an in-between stage based upon the information or discussions with our local FBI to target those facilities for additional protection which are most likely targets during this stepped-up phase.

MARGARET WARNER: Mayor Williams, in Washington was security actually stepped up?

ANTHONY WILLIAMS: Police departments certainly have stepped up security in certain installations, in certain venues. Clearly the tension in the homeland, in cities like Washington, New York and other cities is to maintain your presence in these select designated areas while at the same time keeping your coverage back in the neighborhoods.

MARGARET WARNER: So, Harold Schaitberger, if we think now about the connection between ordinary citizens and the city government, it is of course the first responders, firefighters like the ones you represent. How much better prepared are firefighters and other first responders than they were say pre-9/11 to deal with attacks of this kind?

HAROLD SCHAITBERGER: Well, although I admire the work that the leadership in our cities are doing and I acknowledge that the communications and much of the planning has improved, as I see it, the nation's firefighters and the overwhelming majority of our communities have not been provided with any additional training. They don't have the equipment that's been promised. And in over two-thirds of our cities we are understaffed particularly and according to international standards. The simple fact is for the last 16 months, we have been receiving notable praise, a lot of prayers, a lot of recognition, but the federal government has really failed to date to provide our cities and communities, the leadership that are responsible for that protection with the resources we need.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Just tell me briefly when you say equipment, for example, what kind of equipment.

HAROLD SCHAITBERGER: Most fire departments don't have the chem suits that firefighters need. Most of the sophisticated equipment in most of our cities are with special operations units. with many of our military installations -- but the firefighters who are going to be on the scene of an incident in those first four minutes do not have the Geiger counters, do not have the chem suits, do not the sophisticated equipment and more importantly the training to be aware, to identify and to operationally know exactly how to handle these new threats that we're faced with.

MARGARET WARNER: Is that true, Mayor Williams?

ANTHONY WILLIAMS: Well, in our city we've actually because of our relationship with the federal government had an infusion of funds for the kind of spending that we're talking about here with firefighters. But across the country, even though the administration has put forward a proposal for, you know, appropriations for dollars to get out there to local areas, those dollars haven't yet gone out. And areas need to see it as quickly as possible.

MARGARET WARNER: Mayor McCrory, is Mr. Schaitberger correct?

PATRICK McCRORY: Well, in Charlotte we are fortunate like Washington D.C. We actually accepted a federal grant over four years ago in preparation for terrorism. They had identified I think about 60 cities that would be a potential target. Even on 9/11 in 2001, we were going through a simulated attack at our basketball arena at 9:00 that morning so we have been having a joint period, a joint group working between our FBI or SBI, our fire and police and medic all working together, but we're constantly retraining and, yes, we will need new equipment and more equipment in the future.

MARGARET WARNER: So he's right about perhaps lacking at least the technical equipment you might need to detect, say... I mean World Trade Center was obvious. It was an explosion -- obvious to television cameras and all of America. But if we're talking about chemical, biological, radiological -- those are all invisible. Are you saying you do or don't have the equipment you need to be able to detect that?

PATRICK McCRORY: We have the basic equipment needed in our emergency response team to detect most of those. Our biggest issue right now and I think all of us is communications systems. And that's something we're working very closely with the new director of homeland security is making sure all of our communications equipment is tied in because usually if there's something that goes wrong it's not in the equipment or training, it's in a breakdown in communication. I think they even learned that on 9/11. So I think that's both the short-term and long-term goal that we all need to work in is tie in our communications lines so we're all talking to each other in the same language.

MARGARET WARNER: Weigh in on this Randy Larsen.

RANDALL LARSEN: There's good news and bad news out there. John Thompson, former coach at Georgetown asked me 17 months ago today are we ready for homeland security? I said we don't have a coach, we don't have a game plan. We're not practicing. Today 17 months later we have a coach his name is Sec. Ridge. We have a strategy. The president released that on the 22 of July 2002 and we're practicing, we're doing a lot more of those exercises. We shouldn't be exchanging business cards on the first day of a crisis. October 2001 and the anthrax incident we were. Law enforcement were not used to working with public health. We're doing a better job but I agree with the chief. We're operating on continuing resolutions now since Oct. 1. That's a spending plan designed before 9/11. We need to get those appropriation bills passed so we can provide equipment to the front line soldiers in homeland security.

MARGARET WARNER: One of the....

ANTHONY WILLIAMS: I think it is important that as the dollars are going out there to local areas we understand that the response has got to be a network response. Whoever it is providing this funding has got to see to it that-- presumably it's going to be the states-- see to it that state, county, local, government, private sector, federal government are all working and networking together and leveraging resources -- so support the firefighters, absolutely. But don't duplicate efforts at the same time.

MARGARET WARNER: Let me get you all to end on this. I'll start with you, Mr. Schaitberger. Underlying all these proposals from the Department of Homeland Security, all this guidance, have that battery- operated radio because then you'll be able to sit at home or wherever you are and be told what to do, do you think, Mr. Schaitberger, that local authorities yet have the ability to communicate that -- to detect it and communicate it?

HAROLD SCHAITBERGER: Well, I think they have the ability to communicate it. I am not convinced, in fact I know from the thousands of locals that I represent and thousands of communities that they don't have the ability to really detect, to be aware, and have the sophisticated training that you need to know when it's biological, chemical or a radioactive event. That's the difference.

MARGARET WARNER: And Mayor McCrory, how confident are you or how confident should people living in Charlotte, that if they were home with this battery- operated radio pretty quickly they would be told what had happened and what they should do?

PATRICK McCRORY: Well, there can't be only one line of communication. In fact in the next several weeks we're announcing a major citizens corps program that being integrated with our neighborhood watch programs. So we're going to have to set up communication lines between our existing neighborhood watch programs, having people get radios and also working for the faith institutions to make sure that there are many, many different communication lines open to get the accurate and good information out to the people during a time of not only a homeland security crisis but any type of emergency crisis. Communications is vital. You can't depend upon only one type of system.

MARGARET WARNER: You raise this communications issue, Mayor. What else would you add?

ANTHONY WILLIAMS: Communications is vitally important. We're one of the first cities. We put out something called a family preparedness guide. Over a million copies have been produced to go out there and tell citizens what, you know, you're expected to do -- understanding that in a crisis often the first responders are going to be citizens. So everything that Mayor McCrory has talked about is absolutely important: This connection, this vigilance, this perseverance if need be is absolutely vital.

RANDALL LARSEN: I want to pick up on something that Mayor Williams said that's so important. We don't have enough money for every city to have every piece of equipment. It's got to be a regional approach. This is not the Cold War where there's going to be 10,000 nuclear weapons; it'll be an attack on one city here and maybe on the other coast. So the surrounding communities have to know how to work together and communicate. That is going to be the key in the proper spending.

HAROLD SCHAITBERGER: But the equipment will only be of use if we have our first responders who will be there in those first four minutes that are properly trained and staffed.

MARGARET WARNER: If we have just a nano second left, Randy. Larsen, the one item in the list yesterday that I don't think is in Red Cross guidelines has to do with the duct tape and the plastic sheeting.

RANDALL LARSEN: I don't have it. My mother asked if she should get it. I said no. There's too many other things that people have to do first. Do all of these other things first. Then if you have time, do that. There's not enough guidelines out there about how to do the plastic tape and duct tape. So many things here citizens haven't done, higher priority. Do this first.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Thank you all four very much.

FOCUS - AFTER SADDAM

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, the challenges of an Iraq after Saddam Hussein. Ray Suarez has that story.

RAY SUAREZ: Two top officials from the Bush administration today gave the Senate Foreign Relations Committee a broad sketch of their plans for a postwar Iraq. From the start, it was clear they faced a skeptical crowd. Chairman Richard Lugar:

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR: How long might U.S. troops conceivably remain? Will the United Nations have a role? And who will manage Iraq's oil resources? Unless the administration can answer these questions in detail, the anxiety of Arab and European governments, as well as that of many in the American public, over our staying power will only grow.

RAY SUAREZ: The top Democrat, Joe Biden of Delaware, said the administration has been slow to provide details of its Iraq plans.

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN: The one lesson universally learned from Vietnam is that a foreign policy, no matter how well or poorly articulated, cannot be sustained without the informed consent of the American people. The American people have no notion what we are about to undertake. This is a gigantic undertaking in what the word that we don't like to hear: nation building -- nation building.

RAY SUAREZ: Marc Grossman, the State department's undersecretary for political affairs, said priority one, even after a war, will be to find and destroy weapons.

MARC GROSSMAN: And we'll focus on weapons, delivery systems, agents, related infrastructure, dual-use infrastructure, and Iraq's technical and scientific expertise. And Undersecretary Feith will have a little more to say on this.

RAY SUAREZ: Humanitarian relief plans are also atop the list.

MARC GROSSMAN: Those who have flee their homes in fear will have to be cared for. Essential supply lines for food, medicine, water, and fuel will have to be restored.

RAY SUAREZ: Douglas Feith, undersecretary of defense, addressed the oil issue.

DOUGLAS FEITH: The U.S. And its coalition allies may face the necessity of repairing Iraq's oil infrastructure if Saddam Hussein decides to damage it as he put the torch to Kuwait's oil fields in 1991. Indeed, as I'm sure you know, we have reason to believe Saddam's regime is planning to sabotage Iraq's oil fields.

RAY SUAREZ: Addressing war critics who say the administration is simply after oil, Feith said all Iraqi resources will belong to the Iraqi people.

DOUGLAS FEITH: After Desert Storm, we didn't use our military power to take or establish control over the oil resources of Iraq or any other country in the Gulf region. Only someone ignorant of the easy to ascertain realities could think that the United States would profit from such a war, even if we were willing to steal Iraq's oil which we emphatically are not going to do.

RAY SUAREZ: Biden said the officials left a huge question hanging: Who will be in charge of the reconstruction?

SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN: Is that going to be an American general? Is that going to be like we have in Bosnia, the EU and some European? Is it going to be the United Nations? Those decisions I can't fathom when we're three weeks away from war or five weeks away from war possibly, you don't know.

DOUGLAS FEITH: If there is a war, that entire range of responsibilities falls to the military commander. It would fall to Gen. Franks.

RAY SUAREZ: Republican Chuck Hagel of Nebraska asked which countries have committed to help the reconstruction.

DOUGLAS FEITH: I'm reluctant to get into the who because of the political realities and diplomatic realities with which you are....

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL: Excuse me, Mr. Secretary. If you're having a problem now getting into it, what the hell do you think you're going to have a problem when we get in there?

RAY SUAREZ: Pressed several times on how long the U.S. would stay in Iraq, Grossman offered a guess of two years. That's optimistic, said retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, the former head of U.S. Central Command led relief efforts after the 1991 Gulf War.

GEN. ANTHONY ZINNI (Ret.): The Gulf War may have ended in 1991, but CENTCOM for 12 years after was in Iraq, flew it over, no fly zones, maritime intercept operations, occasional bombings, an average presence of 23,000 troops from all services. The war never ended. We aren't going to go home from whatever we do in Iraq.

SPOKESMAN: The hearing is adjourned.

RAY SUAREZ: Zinni said a key lesson from the Gulf War is that post war plans must be in place before the first shot is fired.

RAY SUAREZ: For more on the military, political, and humanitarian challenges of rebuilding Iraq, we get four views. Retired Army Gen. William Nash is the director for the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. He served as the U.N. civilian administrator in Kosovo, and commanded a brigade in southern Iraq that did humanitarian work after the Gulf War. Rashid Khalidi is a professor of Middle East history and director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Chicago. Mary McClymont is president of Interaction, an umbrella organization of over 160 American-based humanitarian and development organizations. And Dr. Mahdi al-Bassam is a board member of the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, and a founding member of the Iraqi National Congress, an umbrella organization of Iraqi opposition groups. He was born and raised in Baghdad, but left Iraq to study medicine in the U.S.

Well, Gen. Nash, is planning for after the war a standard part of war planning and what do you hear about how this planning is going?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH (RET.): Well, it is or it certainly should be a part of the whole operation -- looking it through from beginning to the end. And the end is not the end of hostilities but the conflict termination process, and in this case the post conflict reconstruction necessary to put Iraq back together as a whole state. My judgment is that there's a great deal of planning taking place on the military side, the uniformed military side primarily in four deployed locations, in Qatar, Kuwait and of course in Tampa at the headquarters of the central command. The role of the Pentagon is also important. And they provide the forces that those commanders will deal with. What concerns me is the lack of the allocation, from what we've seen so far, of sufficient force to deal with the follow-up, if you will, to the combat operations.

RAY SUAREZ: Mary McClymont, what have you heard so far about what's in store for after the war?

MARY McCLYMONT: Ray, we're extremely concerned not only about after the war but the relief efforts for the war. We're very concerned about the state of preparedness of the American government. We have not, as humanitarian NGO's who will be engaged in Iraq been able to receive any kind of plans, even unclassified plans, concerning the humanitarian emergency. There has been little, very little discussion about humanitarian consequences that will likely ensue from this war. We're encouraged that the secretary general, Kofi Annan will be speaking to the U.N. Security Council to try to put forward the humanitarian consequences of this war. And I think there's been so little attention from what we understand being given to that aspect of this war. That is a great problem given the very difficult state and circumstances in the country of Iraq in terms of vulnerability of people.

RAY SUAREZ: But as of this moment you haven't had any formal consultations with the Department of Defense about how your agencies may or may not play a role in a post-war Iraq.

MARY McCLYMONT: There has been no clear understanding of that at all at this stage.

RAY SUAREZ: Dr. Al-Bassam, what should people in Washington, in the forward places that the general mentioned, planning for post war Iraq know? What would you want them to know about what's waiting for them there?

DR. MAHDI AL-BASSAM: Well, Iraq has a unique situation in that we have about four million Iraqi citizens who live outside the control of Saddam Hussein in northern Iraq that have already experienced democracy and have had elections. There are also an additional two million Iraqis who live outside of the entire country, many of them in the West who have had great experiences with democracy. We have a set-up that is ready to go as far as trying to extend that form of democracy into the residual part of the country that's presently controlled by Saddam Hussein. The way the Iraqi opposition sees it is that we should be able to have an entity on the ground with which we can control and make civil society easily feasible and go with plans towards an election on constitution as well as in helping the average Iraqis get back on their feet from 30 years of cruelty with Saddam Hussein.

RAY SUAREZ: Have your organizations, that you're a part of, been consulted officially or unofficially by the Bush administration about what happens when the shooting starts -- stops, excuse me

DR. MAHDI AL-BASSAM: There has been contact between some of our organizations and the Bush administration. There have been significant amount of work that has been done under the auspices of the State Department and what we call transition to democracy -- significant important documents have been produced in that area; there have been additional work that I am involved with where we have the creation of civil society documents being put together. I know of multiple organizations that are doing economic work for a market society -- many opinions about oil and how it should be used, water, et cetera, et cetera.

RAY SUAREZ: Professor Khalidi, what's waiting for American fighters after a war is over in Iraq, if one comes?

RASHID KHALIDI: Well, I think a lot will depend on the course of the war itself, how many casualties have been in the cities of Iraq, how much damage there has been. Nobody can guess. If we're fortunate -- if there's not a lot of casualties -- then it will be an easier job. But in any case, enabling the Iraqis to govern themselves and not imposing things on them from outside -- as some people in the Bush administration I think are trying to do -- is going to be a daunting task. Figuring out how to adjudicate between the interests of the different groups in Iraq, the 60 percent of Iraqis who are Shiite, the Kurds who have had a very difficult time with several Iraqis regimes - the Ba'ath regime and regimes before it, and the Sunni minority, which will be fearful of vengeance perhaps. These are issues that are not going to be easy and the United States is going to be in the middle of all of them as well as the issue already mentioned of who will determine how Iraq's vast oil reserves - perhaps the largest in the world, certainly the second largest proven reserves in the world -- are going to be employed.

RAY SUAREZ: But this all becomes what, an American responsibility once the current Iraqi regime is expelled from office?

RASHID KHALIDI: Well --

RAY SUAREZ: Those intricacies that you were talking about.

RASHID KHALIDI: You may have noticed that there are not very many other countries eager to join us in this effort to overthrow the Iraqi regime. The United States is going to go into this with very, very few allies. Certainly the well to do countries of Europe, the Germans and the French, have been I think very severely alienated in the last few days by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. These are the countries that have money in Europe. If we are expecting from assistance either from the EU or from the United Nations, a lot of fence building is going to have to be done. I think the United States has in effect by making positions unilaterally ensured that it unilaterally is going to have to face the consequences after the war is over.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, you heard both Dr. Al-Bassam, General, and Prof. Khalidi talk about some of the intricacies. This is not going to be simple or clean if a war happens. How does that affect the work that soldiers and their commanders have to do?

MAJ. GEN. WILLIAM NASH (RET.): Well it affects it greatly. First of all, I think it's important to note that the war will not be over at one moment. There will be a messy transition, if you will, where fighting will continue in parts of Iraq, where other parts of Iraq have been secured and the mission is starting to transition to the post conflict stage. The second point is - is that it's my judgment, it will take more forces to stabilize Iraq than it will be to necessary to defeat the regime. And the third point is, is that the military challenges in this transition from war to post conflict change from military threats to public security issues. And while they talked about the four million free Iraqis living in the North and the two million Diaspora, I would say there are three or four more times that number of population in the remainder of Iraq that have to be dealt with, public security provided, ensuring that the cycle of revenge does not begin. And the whole issue of the humanitarian support that is required, and that's why I say that as I look at even with the fervent planning that's taking place by good, honest, true servants of our nation, so far we haven't seen the necessary forces that would be required to follow and support the fighters to provide that larger security facilitate the humanitarian care and begin that transition.

RAY SUAREZ: Ms. McClymont, Gen. Tommy Franks who is the head of central command said in an interview published this morning that he sees soldiers doing a lot of the humanitarian work at least in the initial period. Tell me about how that works and then whether you need a green light from military authorities to start doing your work.

MARY McCLYMONT: Basically it's first important to note that there are very few international NGO's operating in and around Iraq. We also know that there are few U.N. International personnel. There's probably a thousand of them. They will be evacuated during hostilities. The NGO's have been... had run directly into a log jam with the United States government trying to get licenses that they need to go in to do the most basic humanitarian assessments. The U.N. has been precluded from getting sufficient funding because of the international donor community in time to do adequate planning so we have to understand the current state of affairs in terms of getting ready to go into that war. Those NGO's and the U.N. will be ready to go in at certain times, clearly at certain moments in the conflict it will be the military that indeed must, can and should be delivering food on the spot during the direct conflict, but the NGO's and the humanitarian U.N. agencies need to be sure that they can get into territory which is secure. So we need to get in and be able to help people in that way. We must have unhindered access to do that. With respect to the military, however, the day after, we understand that the president has put the Pentagon in charge of humanitarian and reconstruction activities. We very much object to that because of several reasons. First, it very much is not the right thing to have anybody but a civilian authority overseeing humanitarian work. That is because we are impartial, independent providers of aid. It is our job not to be under the control of the military but rather to do our work with the local population. We also very much need to be able to work freely and it is very hard to do that.

RAY SUAREZ: Dr. Al-Bassam it is important to move to civilian administration or at least non-uniformed administration or international administration more quickly than might be in the plans right now?

DR. MAHDI AL-BASSAM: We certainly feel it is very important to move to a civilian administration as quickly as possible -- a civilian administration that would take the country towards a democratic state. As far as the aid to the people and the distribution of humanitarian aid and medications and the water systems and the sewage system set up and so on, all of that needs to be administered through a civilian system. We have people on the ground actually a leadership council that is meeting this weekend to talk about all these plans and how to be able to move forward in the immediate days after Saddam Hussein. The civilian administration is crucial because Iraq has been only ruled by Iraqis throughout its history. And it would be much easier for the Iraqi people to follow and accept orders from an Iraqi type civilian administration, irrespective of the name given to it, than from what they would consider a foreign occupier.

RAY SUAREZ: And, Professor, given what Dr. Al-Bassam just said, how does that fit with minority and majority tensions, ethnic tensions, religious, sectarian tensions? Is there such a thing as an Iraqi right now for the purposes of put inning a civilian administration?

RASHID KHALIDI: No, there definitely. There is and has been an Iraqi national identity for a long type. I think it's a mistake to overstress the divisions of that country but I would also suggest that it's a mistake to think of this as a country that's always ruled itself. It's a country which has had strong aspirations for independence. Those were foiled by foreign occupation or foreign interference mainly by Britain for decades and decades in the first part of the 20th century. That is something that a lot of Iraqis remember. They rose up against the British a couple of years after the British occupation of the country. It is essential after this war, if heaven forbid it happens, that the United States not step into the shoes of former colonial powers. Whatever our pure intentions may be-- and I'm not entirely sure that the intentions of everybody in Washington are pure-- whatever they may be, how we are perceived by Iraqis will determine whether there is an occupation and resistance or whether the United States gets out very quickly and the Iraqi people are able to choose their own government. I think they probably could figure out a way to deal with the differences among them but it will have to be the Iraqis not people who come in on the back of American tanks, not people who have been sitting in exile for decades. It will have to be the Iraqis who freely choose their own government if we are to avoid some of the worst possible outcomes in having American soldiers and American interests caught in the middle blamed justly for the things that follow.

RAY SUAREZ: Professor, guests, thank you all.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major developments of this day. A new audio tape believed to be from Osama bin laden surfaced on al-Jazeera Television. On it, a man speaking Arabic urges Muslims to defend Iraq against a possible U.S. attack. The heads of the FBI and the CIA warned Congress that al-Qaida remains an active, "merciless" enemy. We'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.