MonitoRadio Daily Program; [1991-12-26]

This is Monitor Radio, a worldwide broadcast service of the Christian Science Monitor. In Boston, I'm Rob Nelson, coming up in this half -hour on Thursday, December 26th, bombs away in North Korea, the dismantling of nuclear weapons capabilities begins. Both sides are now inching toward an agreement that would make the whole area nuclear -free zone. It may have been Algeria's first democratic multi -party election, but half the voters stayed home. We'll have a report on how Syria and Iran are seeking to improve business relations with the US, and we take one final round -up look at the Soviet Union's last year. These stories this half -hour. First, this news. From the Monitor, News Test, Guime, Chong, Groundwater, shortly after signing an arms control treaty that produces conventional forces in Europe, President Bush today predicted that the end of the Soviet Union will make it

much easier to win future arms agreements. The Monitor's Ken Barkas reports from Washington. Speaking to reporters at the White House, President Bush said that the American people should help where we can, with such assistance as food, medicine, and investment, as a newly independent state struggle with severe economic reforms. The President also said he satisfied with assurances he's received from the former Soviet republics about the safety of their nuclear weapons, and said negotiating new arms cuts will be easier than before. The concept on their part of viewing the United States as an enemy has happened over all the years of the Cold War. President Bush added that he wants to meet with Russian President Boris Yeltsin in the near future, adding that they remain in what he called very, very close touch. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm Ken Barkas in Washington. In what used to be the Soviet Union today, the Soviet legislature dissolved itself and recognized the new Commonwealth of Independent States. The

action comes one day after Mikhail Gorbachev quit his job as the last President of the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, the functions of the former Soviet government go on, even if the names have been changed. The task news agency says defense ministers that you commonwealth met today, and Russia started printing new 500 ruble paper money, an education of economic weakness, and how devalued the currency has become. Fighting has reportedly stopped in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, between militants, loyal to presidents of Vyed, Gamsa Hurtia, and opposition forces. It's not known whether the five -day -old battle has been halted because of a ceasefire, or whether the two sides are holding negotiations. More than 40 people have reportedly been killed in the fighting for control of the parliament building in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. It's raining in Texas, and that has people worried. The Colorado River is rising in the Wharton area because of previous heavy rains upriver, and about 1 ,800 people along the Cresting Colorado are being advised to leave their homes.

Evacuate Margaret Hamah, he is staying at the Salvation Army shelter in Victoria, Texas. She says she left her home before the water got in. The water got high, and it cuts us off from her home. It was in the yard when I left, but I don't know how it is now. It pretty bad, though. Days of heavy rain and high waters in Texas have left at least 15 people dead. President Bush's choice to replace Robert Mossbacher as Commerce Secretary is corporate consultant and longtime supporter Barbara Franklin. She's held a number of government jobs in her long career. Robert Mossbacher is stepping down from his cabinet post to head Mr. Bush's reelection campaign. This is monitor radio news. Voters went to the polls in Algeria today. Preliminary results are not expected until Friday. It was the North African nation's first free election since gaining independence from France in 1962. The top official says the day may well bring a working democracy to his nation, but it may

also bring a fundamentalist government run by a group that wants to install Islamic law. Some 55 people are reported dead after an attack on a train in the Indian state of Punjab today. Authorities say the attackers were seek separatists and that most of those killed were Hindus. The attackers reportedly stopped and boarded the train, then singled out Hindu passengers and opened fire. The separatists want to make the Punjab independent of predominantly Hindu India. Egypt has sentenced an author to prison for his writings for the first time in the nation's modern history. Michael Georgi reports from Cairo. Egypt's state security court handed down a maximum term of eight years in prison to novelist Ala Hamid for his book A Distance in a Man's Mind. In the fantasy novel, the characters question parts of the Quran. The court condemned the book for containing certain passages which are blasphemous against Islam and a threat to national unity and social peace. Baha 'i al -Din Hassan had the Egyptian organization for human rights. We are regarded as serious violation to

the freedom of opinion, expression and artistic innovation. The author's lawyer complained that the fence was not allowed to fully present its case because the judge was sympathetic to hard -line Islamic fundamentalists who opposed the book. For the Christian science monitor, I'm Michael Georgi in Cairo. And on Wall Street just before the bell, the Dow Jones industrial average was up nearly 35 points at 3 ,085 .87 from the monitor news desk I'm John Groundwater in Boston. This is monitor

radio. I'm Rob Nelson. North Korea has now promised to sign nuclear safeguard agreements a first step as South Korean officials see it toward allowing international inspection of its nuclear facilities. The move is seen as an important step toward easing tensions on the heavily armed peninsula. However, some South Koreans suspect the conciliatory gestures made by the hard -line communist north could be aimed at buying time to try to develop an atomic bomb. Dr. Michio Kaku, professor of theoretical physics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, says that North Korea's ability to produce an atomic bomb requires more than time. Well, I think that they definitely have the know -how in the sense that they have nuclear physicists there just like anywhere else. Except, of course, you have to get the uranium and you have to get the enrichment program and the processing started. And that, of course, requires an enormous technological infrastructure, which, of course, will tax the industrial base of North Korea. So, in my opinion, when they originally signed the international atomic

energy agency conventions in Vienna, it meant that they were, of course, allowing four inspections westerners to come and look at their sites. And at that point, we had a good assessment as to where they are. However, recently, of course, they put restrictions on these onsite inspections, and that's when all the suspicions began to be developed. However, I think that their access to enriched uranium is minimal. The bottleneck, of course, is reprocessing and actually getting access to weapons -grade uranium and plutonium. Who would sell it to them? Well, at the present time, there aren't international safeguards concerning the selling of nuclear materials. Nuclear materials, by the way, are a lot cheaper than most people suspect a nuclear weapon only costs a few hundred thousand dollars to a few million dollars if you can get access to this kind of technology. So, weapons themselves can be easily mass -produced. The trick is to get access to this. And that's where, of course, the Soviet Union was helpful in getting it started. But then, of course, the Soviet Union has, indeed, slowed down in

terms of encouraging its satellites to get involved in this whole nuclear business. There's been some talk recently about a technological brain drain from the former Soviet Union to anybody who'd paid the price for the talent. Is that something that might benefit North Korea? Definitely so. I think it's a wild card, in the sense that we now have 12 nuclear nations that are going to be born very soon, and 15 ,000 tactical nuclear weapons. Some of who's aware about it, by the way, the Soviet military itself has now acknowledged. It doesn't really know where all these weapons are located. They don't know where they are? They know where all the strategic ones are. The 12 ,000 strategic ones, the big ones like the SS -18. But they have 15 ,000 small ones. They're the size of a suitcase that could be their size of like a volleyball. And they can be shot by nuclear artillery. Some of these, we don't know exactly the precise number, but some of these, the Soviet military sheepishly acknowledged, have sort of slipped out of sight. That doesn't mean that they're lost. It just means they're probably stuck in

some warehouse in the middle of some province far, far away from Moscow. That's not very reassuring. That's not very reassuring. And as you pointed out, there's thousands of nuclear technicians who are literally out of a job. And what are these people going to do? They can really only do one thing. And that is make bombs and make bombs very well. And I think it's definitely a source of concern. But however, I think the main thing is that with inspection, you can cut off the supply of uranium. So even though you have top nuclear scientists floating around in the job market, they are not going to be as dangerous as you might suspect as they have to get access to weapons -grade fuel. And until they can do that, then of course it's all theoretical. It's all textbook. You don't calm some of the world's alarms. I'm afraid Dr. Kaku. Well, I think that in the so -called New World Order, the breakup of the Soviet Union definitely has put a wild card, the whole question of whether or not plutonium and uranium could enter the black market, and whether or not nuclear physicists could essentially put their brains on the open market as well.

Dr. Michio Kaku is Professor of Theoretical Physics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Algerians are experiencing the country's first free election since independence. For the past 30 years, the National Liberation Front has ruled the country. Now, 49 parties are contesting the elections, but the only serious challenge to the FLN comes from the fundamentalist Islamic Salvation Front. However, as El Firmida reports from Algeria's voter disinterest threatens to undermine the validity of the elections. These elections are a turning point in Algeria's history. It's the first time since independence in 1962 that Algerians have been offered a real choice of government. The two main contenders in the poll are the National

Liberation Front, the FLN, and the fundamentalist Islamic Salvation Front, the Feast. The elections are being seen as a test of a strength of Islamic fundamentalism in North Africa, and the results will be a particularly interest to other countries in the region, such as Egypt, where will it as parties are banned? Despite a position claims that they have been irregularities, the elections appear in the most part to be going ahead smoothly. The government minister admitted some polling stations have been briefly left on manned, but that this problem had been promptly dealt with. Voting has been taken face peacefully with a police and army staying in the background, but there is little of the excitement that might be expected for countries' first pre -election. The lack of interest has been blamed on the inexperience of most of the parties, and they're failure to convey a strong electoral message. Figures from around the country suggest the low turnout. The government and all the main opposition parties had called for everyone to exercise their right to vote, but by early evening only half the electives had cast bairs. The government has

tried to put a brave face on the poor turnout. Prime Minister Sidakwet Hoverley said the figures were encouraging for a country that did not have a tradition of democratic elections. However, a large abstention rate could discredit the elections, leaving the opposition parties to question the validity of the result. The Christian science monitor Amal Fameda in Algiers. The recent release of Western hostages held in Lebanon prompted the Bush administration to thank Iran and Syria. The credit was important because both countries are looking for Western investment. Syria and Iran are struggling to shake their well -earned reputation as exporters of state -sponsored terrorism, but it's likely to be a while before American businesses line up to invest. The monitors Vic Roberts narrates this report. In the wake of the Persian Gulf War, some said Syria's president Hafez Al -Assad was the next menace in the Middle East. Others argued Islamic fundamentalists in Iran were a bigger threat. But despite their military and strategic might, Cyrus Banis says both Syria and Iran have economic feet of clay.

Banis is the author of two books on Iran's shattered economy. He points out that both Syria and Iran are looking to American businessmen for help. Take a look at the economy of Iran. In infrastructure of the country, it is devastated. Probably Iranian economy, Iranian, in a physical structure of Iran has gone back probably 25 to 30 years. Western companies like Bell, Gruman, and GTE were turned out of Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Its eight -year war with neighboring Iraq wiped out what little was left of Iran's crumbling infrastructure. The fighting ended more than three years ago, but the rebuilding has barely begun. Most of Europe, China, Japan, and even Kuwait are back in business with Iran. But American investors aren't buying. Burned by the Shah's overthrow, Cyrus Banis says U .S. businessmen worry about Iran's future stability. I think Afsanjani himself knows that he is in charge today. He's very shootman. The question is that by the same token, he

probably may not be able to tell you exactly whether he's going to be in charge next month or next two months. So in that sense, even in a short run, we don't know. Political uncertainty isn't a problem in Syria. Since 1971, President Assad has ruled the country with an iron grip. But according to Middle East expert Jezwald Salacus, the cost of maintaining Syria's massive army is strangling the rest of the socialist economy. It has been a centrally controlled centrally planned economy, which has emphasized the public sector and has curtailed and strictly regulated the private sector. Syria, like Iran, is facing an economic crisis and is seeking Western investment. Syria tried to promote itself recently through an ad in the New York Times. The ad features a picture of a smiling president Assad under headlines touting Syria as a tourist mecca. But Jezwald Salacus believes American developers aren't likely to invest in Syria any

time soon. First of all, is the currency problem to float the currency and to eliminate controls on currency exchange and repatriation of profits, to eliminate other types of government controls on the economy. So there are several obstacles that have to be dealt with and it's going to take some time. Syria's helped during the Gulf War, along with the release of Western hostages in Lebanon, has helped recast Syria's image. But some economists believe serious structural changes are needed before Western investors will feel safe there. Salacus predicts such changes could destabilize President Assad's government. Well, there is stability in the sense this is a dictatorship, but it's a dictatorship which is based on a very small segment of the population. And one wonders whether there isn't a contradiction because if you liberalize it economically, will that lead to political liberalization and will political liberalization ultimately lead to a government

that is less stable. And I think that's probably on the minds of the leadership. Both Syria and Iran are encouraging investment by international oil companies, but they want and need investment in other areas as well. And with the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe now seeking foreign aid rather than supplying it, the competition for capital is fierce. Economists say it's likely US investment in Syria and Iran may be slow in coming. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm Vick Roberts. This is Monitor Radio. With headlines on

the environment, I'm Elizabeth Bulkley. Rice, which is a staple for a third of the earth's population, is being threatened by the depletion of the ozone layer, the International Rice Research Institute has announced. The institute says the tropics where the ozone layer is thinnest and rice is most widely consumed receives the highest levels of ultraviolet B. And in Italy, at least 11 cities have imposed alternate day driving rules. This winter on high pollution days against opposition by leaders in the business community. Rome, Milan, Naples, and Turin are taking part, and Venice has even ordered restrictions on its canal's motorboats. Italy's Environment Minister says rigid enforcement can lower pollution levels by 20 to 30 percent, and those are environmental headlines. This is

Monitor Radio. I'm Rob Nelson. The nation that came in rather like a snarling lion in the violent 1917 revolution in St. Petersburg has gone out in 1991 comparatively like a wobbly lamb stumbling into history across the historic cobblestones of Red Square and Moscow. In our Viren assessment of Soviet Russian developments, correspondent Terry Phillips traces the highlights of the Soviet Union's last year. The earliest evidence of the union's demise came in January when Soviet ambassador to the United Nations voted for the use of military force against one of Moscow's former allies, Iraq. Support for the U .S. sponsored initiative to attack Baghdad was the Kremlin's most important decision yet, ratifying the end of the Cold War. It was the first time since World War II that Moscow and Washington were on the same side of a military conflict. Although the Soviet Union's troubles with the United States diminished, its problems continued to escalate at home. While coalition troops dropped bombs on Iraq, Soviet soldiers engaged separatist military forces in Latvia, Estonia, and

Lithuania. The war in the Gulf took most of the world's attention away from the battles in the Baltic, as well as from the civil wars being brought in Georgia and Azerbaijan. By spring, a number of republics had expressed their desire for independence from the central government. The first formal declaration came from Soviet Georgia in April. Within a few months, nationalist leaders Vyad Gamsahurdia became the first ever directly elected president in a Soviet republic. A few weeks later, Boris Yeltsin became Russia's first popularly elected president. The hot summer of 91 also brought political heat. As the Union continued to have its integrity tested, Soviet President Gorbachev campaigned intensely for a new treaty to hold the U .S .S. R together. Then came the August 19th coup, while Mr. Gorbachev vacationed in the Crimea, a small clique of conspirators moved quickly but ineptly to topple the government. The push occurred the day before the scheduled signing of a new union treaty. For three tenths days, tanks joined demonstrators in front of the

Russian White House. Inside Boris Yeltsin and his advisors managed to hold their government together, under tremendous international pressure to restore the Soviet President, the coup collapsed. Mr. Gorbachev returned to Moscow, but it was a peric victory, for the new power broker was clearly now Mr. Yeltsin. Mikhail Gorbachev at first tried to persuade his people to come in as party nearly needed reformation, but the party had lost all credibility. And eventually, Mr. Gorbachev agreed to put his post as general secretary. Still, he refused to set down as the nation's president. Over the next six weeks, one republic after another declared itself free of Moscow's authority. Mr. Gorbachev continued to issue warnings about the dangers this union would bring. Ethnic violence continued to take lives in the Kremlin's Caucasian republics, as well as in Moldavia, and even in the Russian Federation itself. But the final straw was the December 8 meeting in Minsk, the president of Russia, Ukraine, and Belorussia agreed to declare the union of Soviet Socialist Republics dead. In its place, the three men created a commonwealth

of independent states. Eventually, they were joined by eight other republics. Mikhail Gorbachev declared the commonwealth's creation unconstitutional, but his days were numbered as the Soviet Union's last president. Mr. Gorbachev's critics came from all sides of the political spectrum. The right wing said he was too liberal. The left wing said his reforms were too little too late. And the moderate said he didn't deal effectively with the questions of nationalism, which ultimately ripped apart the state created by the Bolsheviks in 1917. For the people of the Soviet Union, 1991 may also be remembered as one of their worst years. For at no time since the siege of Leningrad, have so many Russians worried about whether they will be able to feed their families this winter. And as the Soviet flag is lowered on New Year's Eve, the most important concerns in this country will not be political. They will be simple survival. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm Jerry Phillips in Moscow. The issue of

survival is fought on a battleground where forces favoring collaboration and forces preferring separateness are in combat. The monitors Daniel Snyder and Moscow and Vladimir Pichotnov based in Washington as representative of the USA Canada Institute in Moscow don't quite agree on which side is winning that battle. Well, I'm personally encouraged by the increase in the realization of the necessity to cooperate between the republics. In other words, this integrative trend seems to be under rise. Of course, it doesn't overshadow the other trend toward independence and full autonomy in all the things which in New States are in possession now. But there seems to be finally a kind of a realistic balance between the two trends. And that's very encouraging to me. Well, I suppose I would agree, but in some sense I would disagree. I think the impulse to separation is still much more powerful, particularly when you look at the Ukraine and others. I think they need to separate and feel confident

as independent states before they're going to really integrate. I don't think we know the degree of cooperation yet on really crucial issues such as defense and the economic reform. It's there in principle, when they get down to nuts and bolts, it's going to be, it's already proven to be difficult, it's going to be more difficult. So I don't think people should be surprised to see that increasingly the West is going to be dealing with separate republics much less than they're going to be dealing with some sort of integrative Commonwealth. Vladimir, the forces of reform and change and independence are passing by Mikhail Gorbachev. Does this mean to you that those forces of reform are going to be in decline in the months ahead? No, I don't think so. It's all a matter of definition. It's clear that the first, the Gorbachev, so to say, phase of reform has ended. And it's only natural

that he should fade from the sin himself at this point, however sad this may be, but now we are getting down to a different, a much more radical, I think, process of real structural, it's not actually reform of the system, which used to be the case with Gorbachev. It's trying to set up a new one instead of the old, and that's what the agenda, which is in front of Mr. Yeltsson and his colleagues in other states. I would like to ask you both to talk a bit about generational issues. Those in leadership roles now are of the generation which is rooted in past days, including past days of stagnation, the Brezhnev era, for example. What is to become in the days that lie ahead of those who are in the ages from 30 to 40 to 50, who indeed are going to have to be the ones to deliver these republics and this commonwealth into the future? It's not just Gorbachev who is fading away,

but the whole cohort of the liberals of the 60s whose chief purpose was to socialize with a human face, the reform of the system, is basically living this scene, yielding to the much more radical and resolute and younger forces in the society, or who are set on, as I said, setting up something new and new order of things in the country, and there is clearly, I think, both a generational and even within the same generation, because of course Yeltsson belongs to the same group, there is a clear division between the liberal reformers and the radical transformers, if I may call them so. Vladimir, could I ask you a question that addresses more the human side of things for you personally, I guess? What is happening in your thought at this moment, as you contemplate these drastic changes in your country, there must be an element of expectancy and hope about it, but also that must battle to some degree with a sense of discouragement and frustration, how are you

reconciling these two sides? Bailey, I would say, it's very hard to reconcil this very mixed feelings of frustration and disappointment and anguish about the future with the new hope, which is still with us and which was reinforced, I think, by the Commonwealth's We're all sort of like Vladimir, as we move back and forth between pessimism and optimism, I see that in myself, I see, amongst everybody around me, people want to believe that things are going to get better, but they fear that they aren't, when history takes place, in the way that it is here, it's just massively compressed. I mean, huge events take place on a daily basis and it leaves you really breathless, and in some cases, I'd say, for the ordinary people in the street seeking some refuge from all of this in just

trying to get through daily life. Daniel Snyder is the Moscow Bureau Chief of the Christian Science Monitor, Vladimir Pichotnov is the Washington Representative of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In Boston, I'm Rob Nelson and this is Monitor Radio, a worldwide broadcast service of the Christian Science Monitor on APR, American Public Radio. This is Monitor

Radio, a worldwide broadcast service of the Christian Science Monitor. In Boston, I'm Rob Nelson, coming up in this half hour on Thursday, December 26th, the carrot and stick diplomacy of President Bush, as he recognizes some, but not all, of the new nations emerging from the old Soviet Union. This campaign trail warning from Democratic presidential hopeful Bob Kerry, tell you, unless you make the change as I'm proposing, healthcare costs are going to devour everything. And introducing Alex Poe, who is showing Los Angeles gang members the right way out of poverty and violence, these stories coming up in this half hour. First this news. From the Monitor News Desk, I'm Margot Melnikov. The Soviet Parliament today officially voted itself out of existence one day after Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as

Soviet president. As the Monitor Simon Marx reports from Moscow, only a few dozen deputies bothered to show up for the Supreme Soviet's final session. It was the parliament Mikhail Gorbachev brought to life, but with journalists here writing his political obituary, its members had little choice, but to bow to the inevitable. The acting chairman told the handful of deputies that Bob has to turn up for the final fitting, that now the flag of the Soviet Union has been lowered from the Kremlin. We have the moral and constitutional right to wind up our affairs. Recorders of an hour later, the Supreme Soviet confined itself to the history book. There was no tradition of Democratic parliament meetings before Mikhail Gorbachev. Parliament here were traditionally rubber stamp affairs designed to give credence to communist totalitarian rule. Ironically, deputies noted today it was Gorbachev's parliament that failed to stand up for the president when he was placed under house arrest in August. Days of legislative indecision that may of cost the Supreme Soviet its very existence. For the Christian science monitor, I'm Simon Marx

in Moscow. Mikhail Gorbachev said today he's taking a two -week vacation, but he promised to return to the political scene. US President George Bush today put his final signature to the conventional forces in Europe treaty, which commits NATO, along with a now defunct Soviet Union and Morsov Act, to reduce troops and tanks in Europe. The accord was negotiated by the Kremlin's old regime. A top Bush administration official said it now must be ratified individually by the former Soviet republics to be fully valid. Voter turnout was low today in Algeria's first multi -party parliamentary elections since 1962. Alp Hermeter reports from the capital, Algiers. From around Algeria, suggest the low turnout. By early

evening, only half the electorate had bothered to vote. But the Etro -Len and the fears had called them their supporters to turn up in the thousands of the polling stations. But now there are fears that a higher suspension rate would undermine the credibility of the poll, with the loser likely to dismiss the results as invalid. For the Christian science monitor, I'm Al -Fermeter in Algiers. Suspected Sikh separatists stopped a train in India's troubled Punjab state today, and opened fire on passengers. Officials said at least 55 people were killed. Most of the victims were Hindus. This is monitor radio news. United Nations Secretary -General Javier Perez -Diquer said today he believes the body of slain American hostage William Buckley will be returned by the weekend. Buckley was the CIA's Beirut station chief when he was kidnapped in 1984. According to the return of Buckley's body would bring the saga of American hostages in Lebanon to an end. More rain was forecast today for Texas. Flooding there has already claimed 15 lives,

two people remain missing. Tonight, southeastern Texas may be hardest hit. Debra Frazier reports from Houston. Flooding in central north and west Texas has receded where at least 75 million dollars in damage is reported. Texas Governor Ran Richards has requested federal disaster assistance for five counties, and more may be added. Flood waters are now rushing downstream towards southeast Texas. Residents in low -lying areas along the Trinity, Brazist Guadalupe, and Colorado rivers are being asked to move to higher ground. Some spent Christmas day evacuating, but with two of the rivers expected to crest late tonight or Friday, residents are being told it's critical to get out today. More rainfall today is adding to the problem. Flood warnings are in effect for all of southeast Texas officials say by Friday, residents along the lower Brazist and Colorado rivers may have several feet of water in their homes. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm Debra Frazier in Houston. President Bush today nominated business executive and long -time Republican activist Barbara Franklin of Pennsylvania

to be Commerce Secretary. If confirmed by the Senate, she would be the third woman with cabinet rank in the Bush administration. While street stocks soared today, the Dow Jones industrial average gained nearly 32 points, closing at 3 ,082 .96, according to early figures. And that's the news from the Monitor Radio News Desk in Boston, I'm Margot Melnikov. This is Monitor Radio. I'm Rob Nelson. In his Christmas night address, which combined a farewell

to Mikhail Gorbachev with a welcome to new nations, President Bush went a long way toward officially recognizing the list of 12 new states emerging from the old Soviet Union, but not all the way. It was six of one half a dozen of the other. The Monitor's Ken Marcus reports on the diplomacy of carrot and stick. As expected, President Bush extended formal diplomatic relations with Russia, Ukraine, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. But the U .S. isn't the first Western nation to recognize the former republics delaying its announcement until after Mikhail Gorbachev officially handed over the reins of power. In choosing not to extend full recognition to the other six former republics, President Bush said they haven't met the necessary criteria. That they have made commitments to responsible security policies and democratic

principles. That distinction may set a new standard for diplomatic recognition. After all, the U .S. has full relations with China, a nation that doesn't meet these criteria. Leon Guvray says he understands the administration's go -slow approach. Guvray, director of Soviet studies with the science application's national corporation, says the Bush administration wants to exploit what leverage it has left in the region. Normally, you recognize everybody or nearly everybody, including the ones you don't like. However, we can play the game at least in the Soviet Union. President Bush says that he recognizes their independence. He recognizes them as the fact to existing. What he does not want to do is to establish diplomatic relations with them, which is a somewhat of a different level. This is a traditional form of diplomatic leverage. Abram Chase teaches international law at Harvard University and is a former

legal advisor to the U .S. State Department. The recognition policy has been used by the United States since Wilson as a means of diplomatic leverage and it's an important means of diplomatic leverage because every new state wants to be a member of the club. It's no accident, Chase, points out that the first republics to get the full U .S. diplomatic nod are those possessing nuclear weapons. The best and easiest way to talk to them is to establish diplomatic relations with them. If you want to talk to somebody about a problem, that's the best way to do it. At a White House news conference today, President Bush said it will be much easier to negotiate arms agreements with individual republics. But Leon Guvray expects that significant east -west diplomatic challenges will remain. What

is clear is that none of the republics are what experts consider stable, leaving U .S. diplomats with their work cut out for them. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm Ken Barkas in Washington. China is also moving to establish ties with the new republics of the former Soviet Union and says it will continue to honor all existing treaties. Meanwhile, the state runs in while news agency placed the blame for the problems facing the republics squarely on the shoulders of former President Mikhail Gorbachev, whose lastnests and political pluralism, the news agency said have led to political chaos, ethnic strife, and economic crisis. But China's specialist Michael Oxenberg says leaders of the People's Republic aren't likely to get on any better with Gorbachev's successor, Boris Yeltsin. If they had their troubles with Gorbachev, they're going to have a couple times that,

aren't they, with Yeltsin and the others? Japanese will the Northern Islands issue be settled, and are we going to see a significant reconciliation between Japan and Russia, which would alter China's security environment? How is Yeltsin going to deal with North Korea, and what options does that leave Kim Il -sung, and how will China then deal with the Kim Il -sung that my guess has been find himself in increasing isolation? How is above all, how is China going to deal directly with Yeltsin on border issues? And finally, Nazarbayev, and how will the President of Kazakhstan deal with national minority issues among

the minority peoples in northwest China? China in short has entered a totally new era in its national security environment. It's going to be very challenge for the Chinese to cope with it. Does the change in what used to be the Soviet Union and its effect on Sino -Soviet relations also impact on Washington and its policies for the years to come? I think that the nature of Sino -Soviet relations ceased to be of major concern to the United States, given the dramatic improvement in American relations with Moscow, and I don't see that changing. What will be significant for the United States, obviously, is how China rules itself internally, whether it's a government that, whether it's communist or not, a government that must begin to transform

itself to meet some of the demands of its people. And this is a government in China that's out of tune with its people, in my opinion. But that's not an issue of Sino -Soviet relations. That's how China's government internally. Professor Oksinberg, many thanks for the comments today. Okay. Professor Michael Oksinberg is Professor of Political Science and Research Associate at the Center for Chinese Studies at the University of Michigan. In the town of Blagojevgorod, in the mountains of southern Bulgaria, an American flag flies from a new building. The flag marks the site of the American University of Bulgaria, the first American institution of higher learning in Eastern Europe. With the help of the American and Bulgarian governments and the University of Maine, the American University opened its doors three months ago. As the monitors Kloss Bergman reports,

Bulgarian students after nearly 50 years of Soviet domination and communist ideology may now learn about Jefferson and Lincoln and major in American studies. The American University in Bulgaria is as sign as clear as any that new times have indeed come to this nation. The school had no problems recruiting students. About half of the 450 applicants were accepted. In four years, the school expects to have a total of 1200 Bulgarian students. University administrators have been amazed by the quality of the applicants whose previous education had been totally based on the Marxist -Leninist ideology. Yet students scored on average 1 ,100 and three out of a possible 1 ,600 on the combined SAT tests. The average test score among American high school students is 900. That's phenomenal. These students had never seen these tests before. University administrator, Ellie Kurt Mange. They could be said to have a Western bias. Some people feel

that the SAT does. They didn't know what to expect. They hadn't seen any practice tests. And the scores were fantastic and we just didn't expect that at all. Kossara Marchinkova is one of the 225 students in the first freshman class. She says she's elated to be here. We think that the American University here is the best thing which is ever happening in Bulgaria. And it gives an opportunity not to be out of the country and to be here and to have this good education. But the students' decision to attend the American University was not accepted by all members of their families. Christo Grosev had difficulty convincing his grandparents who had lived most of their lives under communism. Well, for some time, my grandfather was enthusiastic about the idea. Then he had a meeting with one of their party officials and he said it was an ideological institution. It was going to indoctrinate us with American ideas. And he said, why? You shouldn't go there.

So probably the older generation is still afraid and suspicious. The American faculty, including political science professor Robert Phillips, say they underestimated the Bulgarian students. And they are surprised at their willingness to learn. These are a lot like American college students on a freshman level. And some of them actually are more sophisticated in their analysis. And they are able to challenge you because they have this educational background. They're able to challenge you in different ways that American students just aren't able to challenge. Economics professor Baldwin Ransson encourages his students to be critical. And he hopes to give them a sense that it's possible to make things work under capitalism. So what we're doing first is essentially in teaching the traditional economics, introducing the capitalist idea that self -interest is an effective motivator and the argument that it also works for the social good. The American University has brought radically

new ideas to Bulgarian education. And the Bulgarian students appear ready to accept the challenge. They say they've had enough of all ideologies. Now they seek new and more open lives. And at the American University of Bulgaria, they have been given the chance to do just that. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm class Bergman in Black Oy of Grad, Bulgaria. This is Monitor Radio. With business news, I'm Chris Baldwin. Wall Street continues its record -setting ways to Dow Jones climbing nearly 32 points to 3

,082 .96, surpassing the closing high. It's at back in October. Traders say lowered interest rates are driving the market. Meanwhile, U .S. President George Bush today named Barbara Franklin to head the Commerce Department. Franklin, a Republican Party activist, succeeds Bob Mossbacher, who was stepping down to help run Mr. Bush's 1992 presidential campaign. And that's today's business news. I'm Chris Baldwin. This is Monitor Radio. I'm Rob Nelson. Nebraska Senator Bob Kerry says he's frustrated, not with the progress of his

campaign to win the Democratic nomination for president, not even with the endless baby kissing and rubber chicken eating he'll be doing for the next several months. No, Bob Kerry told the monitors John Rudolph that he's frustrated with the direction of the U .S. government. I think we're dickering around about things that are a little consequence and we aren't boldly striking out in this post -containment world of ours where we no longer fear the possibility of nuclear annihilation at least, blowing ourselves up, still a threat of nuclear weapons, but we don't feel that same old fear. And we're just missing an opportunity to do some things differently. How do you distinguish yourself from the other candidates on the issue of health care reform? Most of all, I have a proposal, which is a bill that I introduced in July that has a shifting away from a premium -based system to a tax -based system that allows us to control costs so we'll spend $150 billion less over the next five years. It has real cost controls because politicians will be held accountable on that question. We must budget health care costs at the federal level under my proposal. We will bust up

the federal bureaucracy as well and have the states do the management of health care. We'll have private health care. No American will go into a welfare office any longer to get health care. We completely eliminate Medicaid on the proposal, long -term care is in the proposal. It's funded with a progressive system of taxes that says to people that make less than $40 ,000 a year, you'll pay on average $5 or $600 less than you currently do. It creates an environment where Americans will begin to worry about what do I do to get healthy and stay healthy rather than under the current system, which provides incentive almost for us to get sick because that's when our health care system begins to pay for us. It will liberate American workers so they don't have to fear losing their job and losing their health care benefits. Every industrial nation on this planet except the United States and South Africa puts their workers in that environment. It will liberate entrepreneurs like myself and not so we don't have to worry about what do I do for health care benefits from my employees and small groups. It makes it difficult for us to be able to purchase it. You have to get America so we're moving in

the right direction relative to our other industrial competitors so that rather than spending $200 billion more than Germany and $250 billion more than Japan, we can begin to have much more competitive expenditures and I'll tell you, unless you make the change as I'm proposing, all the conversation that you're hearing from other candidates or from the president himself about we're going to reduce defense and allocate it over. We take the peace dividend and spend it on other things. Healthcare costs are going to devour everything. Bob Kerry is seeking the Democratic nomination for president. Senator Kerry spoke with the monitors John Rudolph. This is not a season of good cheer in America's inner cities. Many young residents are searching for a way out of a cycle of poverty and despair. For some, the way is drugs and violence. But others have chosen the right way. From Los Angeles, the monitor Steve Delaney reports.

South Central LA, an area plagued by drugs, gang violence, and poverty. Yet there's one house where something extraordinary is happening. Alex Poe's house is a gang -free zone and it's always full of kids. The kids have their own space here. They don't have to worry about getting beat up. They don't have to be out of gang violence. You see a lot of kids are in gangs, but they don't gang back. And a lot of kids claim to be in a gang just to live in the community. In a neighborhood where life corrodes childhood, Alex Poe's right -way program tries to nourish it. One of the things that prevent a kid from having a childhood is their fear. Their fear of the community. They're afraid to go to school. They're afraid of being beaten up by gangs. According to 15 -year -old David, getting beaten up is not his worst fear. As you may have heard, Mr. Poe might have told you that my brother was killed

in the gang activity. In the drive -by shooting, he was killed. And then it's a lot of stuff that happens. That's really violent around here. I went to his brother's friend on last Tuesday. He's one of the saddest ones I've been to. This is about my 15th one in a couple years. Here, it's all about kids. I let kids grow up. I let them be kids, be themselves. But like I said, I don't hold their hands. I'm real hard and real firm on the kid. My kid come crying to me about a problem. Oh, my mother's. So what? That's your mother. What about you? You don't want to black your mother? You're going to want to black your father. So what? Your father's a pump, your father's a dead dog. So what? You want to do the same thing, you know? And they get the message to you. Right way has an advisory board, but mostly it is Alex Poe and an old yellow bus. He thinks it's important to get the kids out of the neighborhood

to show them wider horizons. But they have to earn those excursions. So they put on their right way T -shirts and they sell their right way candy bars in places like Westwood, where people will spend two bucks to help a kid. The sales of right way candy bars have paid for getaway trips almost every weekend. This time it's an excursion to Big Bear Lake, to snow country in the high Sierra's, where teenagers from the inner city get a chance to sit in old intertubes and slide down a slope of snow. It's definitely important to get them out here to see that there's more to life than South Central Los Angeles. And another thing is to show them that there's nothing holding you back, you're just as good as everybody else. If you can prepare yourself now for a future, no matter what color your skin is, you're going to

compete in the royal world. The real world requires skills they need to polish. So on Tuesdays, the rule at Alex Poe's houses, bring your books. They really, really, really are trying, you know, they're trying harder than they've ever tried before in their life because they know the one thing that they have to do is bring a pretty good report card to them. Sometimes they bring empty stomachs because addicted parents have smoked up the food money. So there's always a line at the kitchen door. If you're hungry, come over here. I'll feed you. I've never turned a well, a hungry kid. In fact, I got a box of New York steaks in here, you know, they're hungry, they come here and eat. Now they don't have to go out and rob or steal or sell drugs for food, you know. They can come here and eat anytime. I want you to play somebody there. They can beat you. The young people call him Mr. Poe. Not Alex or not some nickname, always Mr. Poe. He demands their

respect and he gets it because he knows how to get their attention. When I first bought a full table for the kids about four years ago, I explained to them the rules and regulations. No sticks on the table, no food on the table, things like that, and the number one rule was no gammon of no kind. I caught him gammon about, I think the first table lasted about a week. And I took my clothes, you know, and I beat it up right in front of him, I'll send you afternoon. Yeah, beat it up real good and then make them, I made them take it out to the front and set it out for trash. And this happened three times. This is the fourth one right here. You know, this is, but this has lasted a long time. Now, I don't think they'll let each other gammon. Well, I got next enough. Tough teenagers respond to that and to the island of calm that Alex Poe has created to nourish the child inside the tough exterior. I can tell him right now, let's calm and put up, put up, put up resistance. Yeah. What's for them? Hey, you guys ready to go?

Why? They are welcome here, but this is his home, not theirs. More than 700 young people have had their days brightened in the years since Alex Poe and his yellow bus have been making a difference for the teenagers of South Central Los Angeles. For the Christian Science Monitor, I'm Steve Delaney. That's it for today's edition of Monitor Radio. Monitor Radio is produced by Ken Bader, Chris Ballman, Elizabeth Baughley, and Vic Roberts, Christian Broman Directs. Our engineers are Eric Arowl and Jeff Turton and Monitor Radio's senior producer is George Bauer. I'm Rob Nelson. Monitor

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